By InvestMacro
The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 3rd.
This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.
To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)
Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:
Brent Oil
The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent maximum score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 37 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 10,280 net contracts this week with a gain of 14,712 contract in the weekly speculator bets.
Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.
Nikkei 225
The Nikkei 225* speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 35 points at last data. The speculator position registered 1,904 net contracts with a recent weekly change of 2,025 contracts in speculator bets.
* Note: The Nikkei 225 (USD) has not been updated by the CFTC recently – likely due to lack of open interest. The Nikkei 225 levels on the charts this week reflect the last provided data. We will look to swap in the Nikkei 225 Yen contracts in future updates which has a higher open interest.
Silver
The Silver speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level now resides at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 20 points this week while the overall speculator position was 60,770 net contracts this week with a boost by 7,758 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Japanese Yen
The Japanese Yen speculator position has cooled off a bit but does come in at number four in the extreme standings this week. The JPY speculator level is at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decline of -7 points this week. The overall speculator position was 151,149 net contracts this week with a shortfall by -12,863 contracts in the speculator bets.
MSCI EAFE MINI
The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level now sits at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed a gain of 18 points this week.
The speculator position was 2,201 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,337 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:
Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note
The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -56 points this week. The overall speculator position was -371,588 net contracts this week with a reduction by -73,325 contracts in the speculator bets.
5-Year Bond
The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year speculator level is also at a 0 percent minimum score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9 points this week while the speculator position was -2,396,536 net contracts this week with a change of -63,299 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Bitcoin
The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the speculator level resides at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,312 net contracts this week with a dip of -38 contracts in the speculator bets.
Soybean Meal
The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -10 points this week. The speculator position was -54,519 net contracts this week with a decrease by -5,366 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
US Dollar Index
Finally, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 8 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small gain by 3 points this week. The speculator position was 617 net contracts this week with an advance by 703 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
- COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Gold & Silver Jun 8, 2025
- COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR-3M, Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds Jun 8, 2025
- COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Sugar & Soybean Oil Jun 8, 2025
- COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini Jun 8, 2025
- Week Ahead: USDJPY set for volatile price swings? Jun 6, 2025
- A public feud between Trump and Musk has begun in the US. RBI shifted its policy from accommodative to neutral Jun 6, 2025
- Japanese yen weakens as markets await US employment data Jun 6, 2025
- The Bank of Canada unexpectedly kept its rate at 2.75%. A private report on the US labor market points to weakness Jun 5, 2025
- Gold poised for further gains as US economic outlook deteriorates Jun 5, 2025
- The focus is on the BoC meeting. The OECD has lowered its expectations for global economic growth Jun 4, 2025
