Brent, Wheat lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 13th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

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Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score (or maximum) of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 14 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 5,637 net contracts this week with a gain of 3,142 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

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Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The JPY speculator level is now at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain by 14 points this week. The speculator position registered 172,268 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -4,591 contracts in speculator bets.

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VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The VIX speculator level resides at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 14 this week. The overall speculator position was 6,099 net contracts this week with a drop of -4,844 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a boost by 35 points this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week with a rise by 2,025 contracts in the speculator bets.

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Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The BRL speculator level sits at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5 this week.

The speculator position was 43,515 net contracts this week with a jump by 18,554 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11 points this week. The overall speculator position was -118,100 net contracts this week with a decrease by -10,563 contracts in the speculator bets.

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5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7 points this week. The speculator position was -2,180,043 net contracts this week with a rise of 116,453 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Heating Oil speculator level resides at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -25 points this week. The overall speculator position was -29,396 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,214 contracts in the speculator bets.

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US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The USD Index speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16 points this week. The speculator position was -615 net contracts this week with an advance by 493 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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2-Year Bond

Finally, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 0 this week. The speculator position was -1,222,232 net contracts this week with a dip by -1,439 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.