Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Silver & Gold :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Silver & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-1,288 contracts), Silver (-1,498 contracts), Steel (-635 contracts), Palladium (-470 contracts), Platinum (-194 contracts) and with Copper (-181 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (77 percent) and Silver (76 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (26 percent) and Platinum (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (41.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (41.9 percent)
Silver (76.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (78.4 percent)
Copper (53.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (53.5 percent)
Platinum (38.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.4 percent)
Palladium (25.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (29.5 percent)
Steel (77.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (80.2 percent)

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Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all of the metals markets currently have negative trend scores. Copper (-8 percent) and Steel (-9 percent) have the least negative scores while Gold (-29 percent) and Palladium (-20 percent) have the most negative scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-29.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (-33.2 percent)
Silver (-12.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.8 percent)
Copper (-7.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.5 percent)
Platinum (-13.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.6 percent)
Palladium (-19.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-12.6 percent)
Steel (-8.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (-13.7 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 161,209 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 162,497 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	20.1	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	63.4	4.9
– Net Position:	161,209	-191,207	29,998
– Gross Longs:	238,191	88,412	51,570
– Gross Shorts:	76,982	279,619	21,572
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	53.5	92.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.3	26.6	14.2

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,754 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,252 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.1	24.0	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	71.9	6.6
– Net Position:	47,754	-66,180	18,426
– Gross Longs:	67,944	33,164	27,520
– Gross Shorts:	20,190	99,344	9,094
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.5	21.2	59.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	11.3	-3.5

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.7	31.0	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	43.5	5.9
– Net Position:	21,522	-24,343	2,821
– Gross Longs:	71,926	60,805	14,368
– Gross Shorts:	50,404	85,148	11,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	49.5	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	5.8	10.5

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	24.5	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	42.2	5.8
– Net Position:	9,316	-13,469	4,153
– Gross Longs:	42,968	18,603	8,566
– Gross Shorts:	33,652	32,072	4,413
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.0	62.7	27.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	13.4	-4.8

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,991 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	50.9	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.6	5.0	7.3
– Net Position:	-10,461	9,659	802
– Gross Longs:	5,661	10,715	2,345
– Gross Shorts:	16,122	1,056	1,543
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	10.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.9	71.0	67.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.5	20.0	-1.2

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	65.0	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	65.4	0.7
– Net Position:	171	-157	-14
– Gross Longs:	10,440	22,868	218
– Gross Shorts:	10,269	23,025	232
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	24.2	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	9.0	-8.1

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.