GBP/USD’s rise from 1.2036 resumed last week and edged higher to 1.2793. But with subsequent retreat, initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations first. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2499 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.2793 will resume the rally to 61.8% projection of 1.2068 to 1.2731 from 1.2499 at 1.2909.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg that’s in progress. Upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2499 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.0351 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. But momentum of the rebound from 1.3051 argues GBP/USD is merely in consolidation, rather than trend reversal. Range trading is likely between 1.0351/4248 for some more time.
