Forex
USD/CAD Rally Pauses: Awaiting Next Correction
The USD/CAD pair ended its continuous upward trend on Friday, 26 June 2024, settling around 1.3813, signalling a potential shift towards correction. The Bank of Canada decided to lower the interest rate from 4.75% p.a. to 4.50% p.a. at its meeting this week. Overall,...
Oil Price Reversal Ahead? Chart Patterns Indicate Possible Bounce at Support
Oil prices have faced challenges recently, but buying pressure prevented a drop below $80. Technical indicators suggest potential for an upward bounce, with key resistance levels to watch. Fundamental factors like Canadian wildfires, US stockpiles, and rate cut...
Gold Technical: Recent Sell-off May Have Reached a Potential Bullish Reversal Level at US$2,353
The recent weakness seen in Gold (XAU/USD) is likely to be driven by US politics as the “Gold premium” has moved in synch with the betting odds of Republican nominee Trump winning the US Presidential Election. The US Treasury market is likely to take a driver’s seat...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.48; (P) 153.40; (R1) 154.86; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidations continue above 151.93 temporary low. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 155.36 support turned resistance holds. Decisive break of 151.89...
US: Consumers Close Q2 on an Upbeat Note, But Momentum Unlikely to be Sustained
Personal income grew 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) in June, down from May’s 0.4% gain, and below market expectations (also 0.4%). Accounting for inflation and taxes, real personal disposable income growth slowed in June, up 0.1% m/m, relative to a 0.3% gain in May...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8776; (P) 0.8818; (R1) 0.8858; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen above 0.8776 temporary low. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.8923 resistance holds. Break of...
Canadian GDP Growth to Slow, U.S. Fed to Stand Pat
The week ahead is a busy one on the data calendar with the release of Canada’s gross domestic product for May and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates on Wednesday, followed by U.S. payroll employment data on Friday. Canadian GDP data should continue...
Week Ahead – BoJ, Fed and BoE Meetings: A Hike, a Hold and a Cut?
A trio of central bank decisions coming up from the BoJ, Fed and BoE One might hike, one might stand pat and the other cut rates ECB to also be in focus as Eurozone flash GDP and CPI data are due Week will culminate with crucial US jobs report BoJ expected to taper;...
Bank of England Preview – A Dovish Hold; Limited EUR/GBP Downside Potential
We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% on 1 August. We stress that it is a very close call not least due to the very limited amount of communication from the MPC over the past months. Overall, we expect the BoE to deliver a dovish...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Markets finally took a breather this morning after recent sharp risk-off repositioning especially in equities and interest rates. However, it doesn’t feel as if a sharp, sustained countermove is already in store. Initial ‘gains’ in yields, gradually...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2822; (P) 1.2876; (R1) 1.2903; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected with 1.2859 resistance turned support intact. Break of 1.3043 will resume the rise from 1.2298. However, firm break of...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0825; (P) 1.0848; (R1) 1.0867; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Deeper fall is in favor as long as 1.0896 minor resistance holds. Below 1.0825 will target 55 D EMA (now at 1.0813). Sustained break there will argue...
Forex Markets Steady as Traders Shrug US PCE Data
Trading in the forex markets remains subdued today as investors take a breather from a week of high volatility. Most major currency pairs and crosses are trading within yesterday’s ranges, with little reaction to US PCE inflation data. Annual Core PCE rate was...
US PCE inflation slows to 2.5% in Jun, but core PCE unchanged at 2.6%
US PCE price index rose 0.1% mom in June, matched expectations. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% mom, matched expectations. Prices for goods decreased -0.2% mom and prices for services increased 0.2% mom. Food prices increased 0.1% mom and energy prices...
XAU/USD Outlook: Gold Edges Higher from Daily Cloud Top as Markets Await Release of US Data
Gold price rose on Friday, as traders collected some profits from sharp fall in past two days (down nearly 3%), with strong acceleration lower on Thursday being sparked by upbeat US Q2 GDP numbers. Strong technical support, provided by the top of daily Ichimoku cloud,...
Performance of Dollar Again Unconvincing, Mixed at Best
Markets The IT-driven risk-off initially supported a classic safe haven run on core bonds yesterday. German yields at some point lost another 5-7 bps. However, equities gradually found a bottom going in the opening of US markets, looking forward the US data. US Q2 GDP...
GBPJPY Extends Decline to a Fresh 2-month Low
GBPJPY pulls back from its 16-year peak of 208.10 The pair falls to its lowest level since May 16 RSI and MACD warn of an overstretched retreat GBPJPY has been in a prolonged uptrend since early 2024, posting a 16-year high of 208.10 on July 11. However, the pair has...
USD/JPY Remains Volatile, US PCE Price Index Next
The Japanese yen has hit the brakes on this week’s impressive rally. USD/JPY is trading at 154.34 in the European session, up 0.30% on the day. On Thursday, the yen climbed as much as 1.3% but gave up all of those gains after the strong US GDP report. Still, the yen...
Dollar Index Remains Within Near-Term Range Ahead of Key US Inflation Data
The dollar index edged higher in Friday morning but is still holding within a choppy range that extends into sixth straight day. Long tails of daily candle of past two days and repeated closes above north turning 10DMA, add to existing bullish near-term bias. Fresh...
USDCAD Eases After Aggressive Rally to 1.3845
USDCAD exits from consolidation area Momentum oscillators indicate bearish correction USDCAD rallied towards the 1.3845 high and completed the seventh consecutive green day on Thursday following the bounce off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near 1.3600. The...
ECB consumer survey: Inflation expectations steady, economic growth outlook deteriorates
The latest ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results revealed stable inflation expectations but a more negative outlook for economic growth. Median inflation expectations for the next 12 months remained unchanged at 2.8%, holding at their lowest level since September...
Crypto Market Takes a Chance on Recovery
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market rallied 3.4% overnight to $2.4 trillion, taking advantage of the mixed performance of US indices, with the Russell2000 and Dow Jones up and the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 down. It’s not a full recovery, but it’s the second bounce...
FX option expiries for 26 July 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, traders will be left to their own devices again for the most part in the session ahead. USD/JPY volatility will remain a factor, alongside the overall risk mood. The latter is slightly better today...
Calmer Markets Shift Focus to US PCE Inflation Data
The forex markets have calmed down considerably in Asian session after a week of significant wild ride. Despite the pause, the risk-averse sentiment persists. Yen, which has led the charge this week, is starting to take a breather. It remains the runaway leader,...
US durable goods orders falls -6.6% mom, but ex-transport orders up 0.4% mom
US durable goods orders fell sharply by -6.6% mom to USD 264.5 in June, much worse than expectation of 0.4% mom rise. However, ex-transportation orders rose 0.5% mom to USD 188.7B, above expectation of 0.2% mom. Ex-defense orders fell -7.0% mom to USD 247.6B....
GBP/USD Faces Downward Pressure Amid US Dollar Strength
GBP/USD pair is down to 1.2892 on Thursday. Selling intensified on the 18th of July. Since then, GBP has remained under pressure, although it is making attempts to stabilise. Statistics released earlier showed that UK private sector activity improved in July. PMI data...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.68; (P) 154.33; (R1) 155.56; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen above 151.93 temporary low. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 155.36 support turned...
U.S. Economic Resilience on Display in the Second Quarter
The U.S. economy surprised to the upside in the second quarter of 2024, expanding by 2.8% quarter-on-quarter (q/q, annualized) against expectations for around 2%. Looking under the hood, consumer spending was slightly stronger than we had forecast, advancing by 2.3%...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8813; (P) 0.8868; (R1) 0.8907; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 0.9223 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8672. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.8923...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2877; (P) 1.2907; (R1) 1.2938; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral first. Further rally is expected with 1.2859 resistance turned support intact. Break of 1.3043 will resume the rise from 1.2298. However, firm break of 1.2859 will turn...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets Risk off quickly spread from the US yesterday to Asian and later European dealings today. Triggered by AI/tech companies on Wall Street yesterday, the equity sell-off broadened in the likes of the EuroStoxx50 amid weaker guidance from consumer staples...
USD/JPY – Yen on a Tear, US GDP Blows Past Forecast
The Japanese yen continues to gain ground against the US dollar. USD/JPY is trading at 153.68 early in the North American session, down 0.14% on the day. Earlier today, USD/JPY fell as low as 151.93 (1.3%), its lowest level since May 3, before paring most of these...
Fed Preview: Opening the Door But Not Pre-committing
We expect the Federal Reserve to maintain its monetary policy unchanged next week. Focus will be on upcoming rate cuts, which we expect to begin in September. The two latest CPI prints have built significant confidence in inflation remaining en route to target, but...
What to Expect from Markets in the Run Up to US Elections?
Presidential race dominates headlines and complicates Fed’s job Equities suffered in the two months leading up to the last six presidential elections Market’s performance in the 2016 pre-election period could be a useful guide Dollar strengthened in 2016 but equities...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0821; (P) 1.0844; (R1) 1.0861; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside, and fall from 1.0947 short term top should extend to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0813). Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.0601 has completed...
Dollar Edges Up After Strong Q2 GDP, Yen Finally Retreats
Dollar rises modestly in early US trading following stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP data. The robust performance overshadowed the mixed durable goods orders data, instilling some optimism in the market. Despite this, overall market reactions remain subdued. US futures...
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDCAD Turning Upside from Sideways
Hello traders, welcome to a new blog post. Today, we will discuss USDCAD as the pair is set to break out of a range that has lasted over two years. How soon can the breakout happen? In May 2021, USDCAD completed a five-year-long bearish corrective cycle that started...
US initial jobless claims falls to 235k vs exp 238k
US initial jobless claims fell -10k to 235k in the week ending July 20, slightly below expectation of 238k. Four-week moving average of initial claims was relatively unchanged at 236k. Continuing claims fell -9k to 1851k in the week ending July 13. Four-week moving...
GBP/USD Dips to 1.2850 Amid Growing BoE Rate Cut Speculation
GBP/USD is declining due to speculation of a BoE rate cut and concerns about global growth. Market participants are pricing in a 53% chance of rate cuts in August, but economists polled predict an 80% chance of a cut. Technically, GBP/USD has support at 1.2850 and...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.68; (P) 154.33; (R1) 155.56; More… USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 continues today and there is no sign of bottoming. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 151.89 resistance turned support. Decisive break there will argue that large scale...
USD/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8813; (P) 0.8868; (R1) 0.8907; More… USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9223 resumed by breaking 0.8819 support. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8672. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.8923...
GBP/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2877; (P) 1.2907; (R1) 1.2938; More… No change in GBP/USD’s as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected with 1.2859 resistance turned support intact. Break of 1.3043 will resume the rise from 1.2298 and...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0821; (P) 1.0844; (R1) 1.0861; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.0947 short term top should extend to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0813). Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.0601...
EUR/JPY Outlook: Falls to New Multi-Week Low After Break of Key Support
EURJPY extends steep fall into fifth straight day and hit 11-week low in early Thursday (down 1% in Asian session). Recent interventions by Japan’s authorities boosted yen across the board and fresh strength gained strong momentum, suggesting that the currency could...
German Ifo falls to 87, economy stuck in crisis
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index fell from 88.6 to 87.0 in July, missing expectations of 89.0. Current Assessment Index also dropped from 88.3 to 87.1, below the anticipated 88.5. Additionally, Expectations Index declined from 88.8 to 86.9, underperforming the...
WTI Crude Oil Creates Bearish Wave
WTI crude oil tests 77.70 support Price holds beneath SMAs RSI and MACD indicate more losses WTI crude oil futures have been in a bearish movement after the pullback off the 84.70 resistance level. It has since slipped below the simple moving averages (SMAs) in the...
FX option expiries for 25 July 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will continue to revolve around the same factors driving price action in the last few days.That being bids into the Japanese yen and selling in the commodity currencies amid a more...
Relentless Yen Rally in Risk-Off Market: Will US GDP Turn the Tide?
Risk aversion has firmly gripped the markets, leading to the steepest selloff in US stocks since 2022 overnight. This sharp decline continued into the Asian trading session, with Nikkei plunging nearly 3%. The market rout is further exacerbated by a broad decline in...
EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.13; (P) 169.61; (R1) 170.38; More… EUR/JPY’s fall from 175.41 accelerates lower today and it’s now pressing 38.2% retracement of 153.15 to 175.41 at 166.90. Some support could be seen from this fibonacci level, and break of 169.19 minor...
EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9665; (P) 0.9678; (R1) 0.9688; More…. EUR/CHF’s fall from 0.9772 resumed by breaking through 0.9641 support and intraday bias is back on the downside. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9476 to 0.9772 at 0.9589. Sustained break there will...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.06; (P) 156.08; (R1) 156.60; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside with focus on 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 153.65. Some support could be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. But risk will stay...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8891; (P) 0.8908; (R1) 0.8930; More… USD/CHF’s sharp decline suggests that recovery from 0.8819 has completed at 0.8923, after rejection by 55 4H EMA. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8819. Firm break there will resume whole fall from...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2884; (P) 1.2911; (R1) 1.2935; More… Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected for with 1.2859 resistance turned support intact. Break of 1.3043 will resume the rise from 1.2298 and target 100%...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0832; (P) 1.0865; (R1) 1.0885; More….. No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside. Fall from 1.0947 short term top should extend to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0813). Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from...
(BOC) Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 4½%
The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The global economy is expected to continue expanding at an annual rate...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Monthly PMI’s were the headline story on global markets. EMU surveys at least were no happy reading. The composite EMU HCOB PMI declined from 50.9 to 50.1 suggesting an near standstill in activity. The decline was mainly driven by a deepening contraction in...
EUR/USD Pares Losses After Weak Eurozone PMIs
The euro edged lower on Wednesday but has recovered. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0860, up 0.07% on the day at the time of writing. Eurozone PMIs weaker than expected Eurozone PMIs can be viewed as monthly report cards for the services and...
Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate to 4.5%
The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate to 4.50% (from 4.75%), while stating that it will continue with Quantitative Tightening (QT). The Bank outlined a relatively dovish take on the economy, stating that “…the economy’s potential output is still growing faster...
US PMI composite rises to 27-mth high on strong services, Goldilocks scenario
US PMI Manufacturing fell from 51.6 to 49.5 in July, a 7-month low. PMI Services jumped from 55.3 to 56.0, a 28-month high. PMI Composite rose from 54.8 to 55.0, a 27-month high. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:...
BoC cuts rate to 4.50%, downgrades 2024 GDP forecasts
BoC cuts overnight rate by 25bps to 4.50% as widely expected. The Governing Council is carefully assessing the “opposing forces” on inflation, where excess supply is lowering inflationary pressures, but shelter and some services are holding inflation up. Future...
Euro Slips After Weak PMI Data, Yen Extends Gains on BoJ Speculations
Yen continues to dominate the forex markets today, with speculation heating up ahead of next week’s BoJ meeting. According to a Reuters report, unnamed sources have confirmed that a rate hike will be debated at the meeting. However, the decision is expected to be a...
US goods exports rises 5.7% yoy, imports rises 6.9% yoy
US goods exports rose 5.7% yoy to 172.32B in June. Goods imports rose 6.9% yoy to USD 269.16B. Trade balance reported USD -96.84B, versus expectation of USD -98.0B. Wholesale inventories rose 0.2% mom to USD 903.3B. Retail inventories rose 0.7% mom to USD 802.1B. Full...
Brent Oil Prices Decline Amid Inventory Reductions and Middle East Optimism
Brent crude oil prices have continued their downward trajectory, reaching 81.14 USD per barrel as of Wednesday. This marks the fifth consecutive session of decline, primarily influenced by significant reductions in US oil inventories. The latest data from the API...
ETHUSD Trades Flat After ETF Debut
ETHUSD has been rangebound in the past few sessions Spot ETF launch did not trigger much volatility Momentum indicators remain positively tilted ETHUSD (Ethereum) has experienced a strong rally in July, breaking above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). However,...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.13; (P) 169.61; (R1) 170.38; More… EUR/JPY’s fall from 175.41 resumed after brief consolidations and dives to as low as 167.42 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 153.15 to 175.41 at 166.90. Some support could...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 199.97; (P) 201.57; (R1) 202.38; More… GBP/JPY’s fall from 208.09 accelerates to as low as 198.95 so far, breaking through 55 D EMA. Intraday bias stays on the downside for for 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 208.09 at 196.71 next. For now, risk will...
NZDUSD Plunges to New Multi-Week Low
NZDUSD dives almost 4% from the July high of 0.6150 Price may rebound off 0.5875 20- and 200-day SMAs record a bearish cross Momentum oscillators indicate upside correction NZDUSD has been creating an aggressive bearish rally since the break beneath the short-term...
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9665; (P) 0.9678; (R1) 0.9688; More…. Immediate focus is now on 0.9641 temporary low in EUR/CHF. Firm break there and sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9476 to 0.9772 at 0.9659 will extend the fall from 0.9772 to 61.8% retracement at...
UK manufacturing PMI hits 24-month high, encouraging start to H2
UK PMI data for July reveals a promising start to the second half of the year. PMI Manufacturing rose to 51.8, exceeding expectations of 51.1 and marking a 24-month high. PMI Services also increased slightly from 52.1 to 52.4, though just below the forecast of 52.5....
Eurozone PMI composite hits 5-month low at 50.1, ECB’s post-September rate cut path uncertain
Economic activity in Eurozone weakened in July, with PMI Manufacturing dipping from 45.8 to 45.6, a seven-month low, and missing expectations of 46.3. PMI Services also declined from 52.8 to 51.9, below the anticipated 52.9, marking a four-month low. Consequently, PMI...
FX option expiries for 24 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.However, they may not feature too much into play given the state of play in major currencies this week.The first one being for USD/JPY at the 155.00 mark but the pair is feeling rather heavy already in the...
Yen Jumps as Strong PMI Boosts BoJ Hike Hopes; Canadian Dollar Eyes BoC Cut
Yen’s rally accelerates again in Asian session today, driven by stronger-than-expected PMI services data, which bolsters the argument for a BoJ rate hike next week. While opinions vary on the exact timing of the rate move, with some economists forecasting a move in...
Crypto: Tactical Retreat from the Peak
Market picture The cryptocurrency market lost 2% of its capitalisation in 24 hours to $2.41 trillion. However, this is a pullback from a high base. This tug-of-war between bulls and bears points to the importance of the current situation. Bitcoin and Ethereum are...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0875; (P) 1.0889; (R1) 1.0905; More….. EUR/USD’s break of 1.0871 support suggests that a short term top was already formed at 1.0947, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.0810)....
Nasdaq 100: Potential Bullish Reversal Looms Ahead of Alphabet and Tesla Earnings Results
Market breadth indicators (% of component stocks above 20-day & 50-day moving averages) have increased to above 50%. Short-term bullish momentum condition sighted at the retest of its 50-day moving average. Watch the 19,520 key short-term support ahead of a risk...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2912; (P) 1.2927; (R1) 1.2949; More… GBP/USD is still holding above 1.2859 resistance turned support and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected for now. Break of 1.3043 will resume the rise from 1.2298 and target 100% projection...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8878; (P) 0.8890; (R1) 0.8909; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the upside with break of 0.8914 support turned resistance. Further rally should be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8967) and possibly above. But still, break of 0.9049 resistance...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.37; (P) 156.99; (R1) 157.69; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral and further decline is expected with 158.85 resistance intact. Below 155.36 will target 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to...
Dollar Bears Paused, Breaking the Uptrend
Last week, the dollar index regained some of its losses from the previous four weeks, but technically, it looks like short-term profit-taking by sellers before a new downward momentum. The US dollar has been under pressure since late June as the Fed noted progress in...
EUR/JPY Outlook: Collapses to Five-Week Low on BoJ Rate Hike Signals
EURJPY fell nearly 1% on Tuesday, as yen rose across the board on hawkish talks which may prompt BoJ for more rate hikes. The pair broke below psychological 170 support, hitting the lowest levels in five weeks and cracked Fibo 76.4% retracement of 167.52/175.42 upleg....
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Another empty daily calendar left investors to their own devices with central bank meetings in Hungary (-25 bps to 6.75%, as expected) and Turkey (unchanged at 50%, cfr. infra) offering some distraction in non-core areas. That resulted in core bonds gaining...
Yen Holds Strong While Dollar Begins to Flex Its Muscles
Japanese Yen continues to stand out as the strongest currency, in another day with a lackluster economic calendar. However, it’s Dollar that’s capturing market interest as markets enter into US session, where it has shown notable gains against major counterparts like...
Analysis of XAU/USD: Gold Price Falls for 4 Consecutive Days
As shown on the XAU/USD chart, Monday, 22 July marked the fourth consecutive day of declining gold prices. The change from the historical peak reached on Wednesday is around -3.5%. Bearish sentiment is driven by: → Market participants’ assessment of prospects due to...
EUR and GBP Retreat from Key Levels
Financial and currency markets are experiencing one shock after another. The steady decline in US inflation, a potential Fed rate cut, and the current US president’s exit from the election race have led to sharp fluctuations in almost all currency pairs. Last week:...
Gold Outlook: Pullback from New Record High Runs Out of Steam Ahead of Key US Data
Gold price edges higher in European trading on Monday, after Monday’s Doji candle signaled that pullback from new record high ($2483) might be running out of steam. Pullback was contained by solid supports at $2390 zone (daily Kijun-sen / 50% retracement of...
FTSE 100 Consolidates, S&P 500 Faces Critical Test, Earnings Ahead
The FTSE 100 is currently consolidating, trading within a range, with the possibility of a significant breakout. Glencore and Anglo American experiencing declines while Compass reports strong revenue growth. The S&P 500 faces a critical resistance level that could...
USD/JPY: Bears Retest Key Near-Term Support
USDJPY fell 0.7% in Asia on Tuesday after comments from Japanese official added pressure on the central bank for more rate hikes to further boost strengthening yen. The latest comments further improved yen’s sentiment, though most analysts expect BoJ to keep rates...
Outcome of Expected Contest Between Trump and Harris Too Early To Call
Markets US President Biden stepping out of the presidential election race dominated press/market headlines yesterday. Still, the direct impact on global trading was modest after all. For now, the outcome of an expected contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is...
EURJPY Extends Pullback from 32-year High
EURJPY jumped to its highest since January 1992 on July 11 But is trending lower since then due to Japanese intervention Oscillators deteriorate significantly, suggesting bearish bias EURJPY has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year, storming to a fresh...
GBPUSD Holds Well Below the 1-year High
GBPUSD eases but remains above uptrend line Stochastics and RSI suggest more losses GBPUSD is retreating after a strong rally towards the one-year high of 1.3045. The technical oscillators also confirm the bearish retracement. The stochastic is diving into oversold...
ECB’s de Guindos: Sep economic projections key for policy reassessment
In an interview with Spanish news agency Europa Press, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasized the significance of new macroeconomic projections in September, together with another two months of data on inflation and underlying inflation. These projections and...
AUDUSD Tumbles Below Key 0.6690 Zone
AUDUSD falls back within a range RSI and MACD support further declines Dip below 0.6575 could carry larger bearish implications Rebound above 0.6690 may invite more bulls. AUDUSD has been trading in a free-fall mode since July 15, while yesterday, the bears cleared...
FX option expiries for 23 July 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of for the day. As such, trading sentiment might be more muted in the European session as we await US markets to open again later. In that lieu, even then equities and the broader risk mood might be more cautious today...
Yen Advances Despite BoJ Uncertainty, Aussie and Kiwi Struggles Continue
Yen is trading broadly higher in otherwise sluggish Asian session today. The central focus remains on whether BoJ will implement another interest rate hike at its upcoming announcement on July 31. Media reports suggest that some BoJ officials are concerned about weak...
News of the Week (July 22—26): USDCNH Review
The USDCNH pair represents the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan. Factors influencing the US dollar include Federal Reserve policies, inflation rates, and the overall health of the US economy. In contrast, the Chinese yuan is affected by China’s...
EUR/USD Outlook: Correction So Far Limited But Risk of Deeper Pullback Still Exists
EURUSD edges higher in European trading on Monday as bears are taking a breather after a two-day pullback from a multi-week high (1.0948). Rising 10DMA and Fibo 23.6% of 1.0666/1.0948 (1.0881) contained dips for now, signaling a scenario of shallow correction before...
AUD/USD Mid-Day Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6672; (P) 0.6693; (R1) 0.6707; More... AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6798 accelerates lower today and intraday bias stays on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6798 at 0.6631. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound, and break...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.02; (P) 157.38; (R1) 157.78; More… USD/JPY is staying in range above 155.36 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 158.85 resistance intact. Below 155.36 will target 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8867; (P) 0.8884; (R1) 0.8908; More… USD/CHF is staying in range above 0.8819 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 0.8914 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.8819 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.8332...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2886; (P) 1.2930; (R1) 1.2958; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.3043. Downside of consolidations should be contained by 1.2859 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Break of 1.3043 will resume...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Biden’s dropout from the presidential race grabbed most of the headlines today, if only because there was basically no other news to report. He and many other Democrats have endorsed the current runner-up Kamala Harris as the new nominee. What that means for...
PMIs Could Momentarily Take Focus Away from US Developments
Wednesday’s PMI surveys key for both the Fed and the BoE Eurozone PMI manufacturing survey could disappoint again US PMIs unlikely to unsettle September Fed expectations UK figures could surprise on the upside after the general election Important PMI survey prints...
BoC to Cut Rates Again, What’s Next?
Bank of Canada to slash rates by 25bps for the second time in a row More easing expected, but policymakers might signal a data-dependent approach USDCAD tests key resistance of 1.3740; key support at 1.3620 Investors are confident that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will...
July Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period
Summary Congress has given the Federal Reserve a dual mandate of “maximum employment” and “price stability.” With inflation surging to a 40-year high in 2022, the FOMC largely has focused on its “price stability” mandate in recent years. However, inflation is showing...
AUD/USD Outlook: Downtrend Extends into Sixth Consecutive Day
AUDUSD hit three-week low on Monday after recovery attempts overnight were short-lived and bears regained full control. The pair remains in a steep downtrend for the sixth straight day and retraced so far 61.8% of 0.6575/0.6798 rally. Last week’s 1.3% fall left large...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0870; (P) 1.0889; (R1) 1.0903; More…. EUR/USD is staying in range below 1.0947 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.0871 minor support holds. Break of 1.0947 will target 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915 from...
Aussie’s Selloff Deepens as Copper Prices Plunge
Australian Dollar continues to lead the decline among commodity currencies today, with the selloff appearing to accelerate. Despite stabilization in risk sentiment in Europe where major indexes are trading positively, and US futures, particularly NASDAQ, pointing to a...
EURCHF Hovers Around 38.2% Fibo
EURCHF spikes lower following rejection at 23.6% Fibo Price trades sideways after break below 50-day SMA Momentum indicators are neutral-to-negative EURCHF has been staging a solid recovery since mid-June, advancing to its highest level in more than a month last...
Bundesbank urges prudence: further rate reductions must be judiciously evaluated
Bundesbank’s latest monthly report indicates that while some factors are bolstering the economy, they are simultaneously complicating efforts to bring inflation down to target. “The labor markets are still operating at high capacity, wage growth is brisk, and prices...
Australian Dollar Falls to 3-Week Low
The Australian dollar is coming off a rough week with losses of 1.45% and the downtrend has continued on Monday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6664 in the European session, down 0.30% on the day at the time of writing. The Aussie climbed 1.9% in the first two weeks of July...
Crypto Rests After Another Rise
Market picture The cryptocurrency market is near 6-week highs, with capitalisation near $2.44 trillion, adding 0.5% in the last 24 hours. A wait-and-see attitude and some profit-taking replaced active buying in the last three days starting Friday. Judging by the...
ECB’s Kazimir: Two more rate cuts this year not guaranteed
In an op-ed published today, ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir addressed market expectations for two additional rate cuts before the end of the year. He stated that while these market bets are “not entirely misplaced,” they should not be considered a “given...
USD/JPY: Another Potential Relief Rally Leg Looms for JPY
A potential uptick in Japan’s core-core CPI led by PPI may increase the odds of a BoJ’s interest rate hike in September. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s betting odds have slipped after US President Biden decided to bow out of the US Presidential...
Aussie Leads Decline in Commodity Currencies; Risk Aversion Dominates Following China’s Rate Cut
Australian Dollar leads other commodity currencies lower in Asian session today, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment in the markets. The market’s risk-off sentiment is further emphasized by the strength of Yen and Swiss Franc, currencies typically favored during...
Gold Declines Sharply from All-time High
Gold jumped to its highest level ever on July 17 But reversed lower due to reaching overbought conditions Despite latest weakness, oscillators remain positively tilted Gold had been in a steady uptrend since late May, which led to a fresh all-time high of 2,483 last...
FX option expiries for 22 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple of large ones in the likes of EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD. However, they are all unlikely to feature as they are quite a distance away from the spot price currently. As such, the expiries should have no impact on price action with the focus to...
US Will Reveal Its Latest GDP Update
Joe Biden threw in the towel and announced that he quits the presidential race this weekend. He endorsed Vice President Kamara Harris to take his place. Harris said that she will do anything in her power to beat Trump, she got the support from Bill and Hillary Clinton...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF reversed after edging higher to 0.9772 but recovered after breaching 38.2% retracement of 0.9476 to 0.9772 at 0.9659. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Strong bounce from current level will maintain near term bullishness. Break of 0.9972 will...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.5996 extended higher last week and broke through 55 D EMA (now at 1.6216). The development is taken as the first sign that whole correction from 1.0762 has completed with three waves down to 1.6000 fibonacci support. Further rise is expected...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP recovered after edging lower to 0.8382 last week. With break of 55 4H EMA (now at 0.8421), initial bias is mildly on the upside for stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8477). Nevertheless, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8498 resistance holds, and...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s fall from 175.41 short term top extended lower last week but recovered after hitting 169.98. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further fall is in favor as long as 172.91 resistance holds. Below 169.98 will target 38.2% retracement of 153.15...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s pullback from 208.09 extended lower last week but recovered after hitting 202.08. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further fall is in favor as long as 205.77 resistance holds. This decline from 208.09 might be correcting the whole rise from...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD’s strong rally last week suggests that consolidative pattern from 1.3845 has completed with three waves to 1.3588, after being supported by 38.2% retracement of 1.3716 to 1.3845 at 1.3589 Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.3790 resistance first....
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6798 short term top extended lower last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6798 at 0.6631. Strong rebound would be seen there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6754 minor resistance will...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF dipped to 0.8819 last week as fall from 0.9223 tried to resumed, but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is in favor as long as 0.8914 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.8819 will target 61.8%...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3043 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Downside should be contained by 1.2859 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Break of 1.3043 will resume the rise from...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s correction from 161.94 extended to 155.36 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further fall is expected with 158.85 resistance intact. Below 155.36 will target 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 153.65. On the...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD edged higher to 1.0947 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rise is in favor as long as 1.0871 minor support holds. Break of 1.0947 will target 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915 from 1.0665 at 1.0979....
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: FOMC – Are Surprises Expected on 31 July? This review will begin somewhat unusually, not from the start, but from the end of the past work week. On the evening of 18 July and the morning of the 19th, system administrators and users encountered non-functional...
Shift in Risk Sentiment a Short-Lived Anomaly or Start of a Longer Correction?
Last week proved to be a whirlwind for global markets, marked by a series of shocking events—from the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump last weekend, to the historic global tech outage that occurred on Friday that brought significant attention but...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: A String of Upside Surprises, but Growth is Slowing in the U.S.
Summary United States: A String of Upside Surprises, but Growth is Slowing in the U.S. Retail sales, housing starts and industrial production all surprised to the upside this week. Yet, an uptick in initial jobless claims was a reminder that conditions in the labor...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Nearing the Pivot Point
U.S. Highlights After an eerily calm few months, a fresh dose of volatility descended across global financial markets this week. Top Fed officials speaking this week noted that they are getting ‘closer’ to cutting interest rates. Financial markets have fully priced...
Weekly Market Outlook: US PCE, GDP, and Earnings Expected to Drive Volatility
This week, markets were influenced by trade war fears, US political developments, and a global cyber outage. In Asia, the Japanese yen weakened, and Chinese authorities remained silent on economic goals despite weak data. Next week, US PCE and GDP data, along with...
Summary 7/22 – 7/26
Monday, Jul 22, 2024 Tuesday, Jul 23, 2024 Wednesday, Jul 24, 2024 Thursday, Jul 25, 2024 Friday, Jul 26, 2024 The post Summary 7/22 – 7/26 appeared first on Action Forex.
GBP/USD: Cable Dips Further After Downbeat UK Retail Sales
Cable remains in red for the second consecutive day and extends pullback from new one-year high (1.3044). Weaker than expected UK retail sales increase pressure on sterling and add to bets for BoE rate cut in August (currently at 44%). Fresh bears broke below the...
US Dollar Index Outlook: Risk Aversion Lifts the Dollar
The dollar index extends recovery into second straight day, with strong bounce from new four-month low (103.31) on Thursday, being fueled by fresh risk aversion on global cyber outage, which hit financial centers, banks, airlines and many others, prompting investors...
EUR/USD Experiences Sharp Decline: Risk Appetite Heightens
The EUR/USD pair fell sharply to 1.0888, with investors speculating on the future of US interest rates and the potential implications of the upcoming presidential election, particularly as Donald Trump’s chances appear to be improving. These factors contribute to a...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0879; (P) 1.0911; (R1) 1.0928; More…. EUR/USD is still holding above 1.0871 support and intraday bias stays neutral. Further remains mildly in favor. Break of 1.0947 will resume the rise from 1.0601 and target target 100% projection of 1.0601 to...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2915; (P) 1.2968; (R1) 1.2997; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. Pullback from 1.3043 could extend lower but downside should be contained by 1.2859 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 1.3043 will...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets One of the biggest-ever IT outages sparked volatility at the start of European trading but without lasting impact on general markets. A security update by CrowdStrike caused a global problem with Microsoft’s Windows. UK retail sales also printed at the onset...
AUD/USD: On Track for Biggest Weekly Drop Since Mid-April
Australian dollar continues to trend lower vs its US counterpart for the fifth consecutive day, on track for the biggest weekly loss since the second week of April. Bears have so far retraced 50% of 0.6575/0.6798 upleg and look for daily close below daily Kijun-sen...
Gold: Reversal or Typical Retreat?
Gold made an impressive 3% surge during the week, breaking May’s all-time highs. However, it then retreated to the downside, selling off throughout the second half of the week. What should you watch out for to see if this is a reversal? Pullbacks after making new...
Another Cut from BoC Will Bring Benchmark Interest Rate to 4.5%
Softer inflation in Canada in June provided a small relief after an upside surprise in May, and set the Bank of Canada up for another 25-basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday to build on its first cut in June. Similar to the June meeting, we think the central...
Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, US GDP and BoC Decision on Tap
US data awaited amid overly dovish Fed rate cut bets July PMIs to reveal how economies entered H2 BoC decides on monetary policy, may cut rates again Will investors add to their Fed rate cut bets? With investors ramping up their Fed rate cut bets, the US dollar...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8839; (P) 0.8859; (R1) 0.8898; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidations above 0.8819 temporary low. But further decline is expected as long as 0.9049 resistance holds. Break of 0.8819 will resume the fall from 0.9223 to...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.29; (P) 156.95; (R1) 157.84; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Deeper decline is still expected as long as 158.85 resistance holds. Below 155.36 will extend the fall from 161.94, as a correction to rally from 140.25,...
Dollar Gains on Risk Aversion Amid Quiet Trading
Risk aversion continues to support Dollar in relatively quiet trading today. Both Sterling and Canadian Dollar weakened mildly after worse-than-expected retail sales data. Euro shrugged off dovish comments from some ECB officials. Meanwhile, Yen softened slightly...
Canada retail sales falls -0.8% mom in May, down further -0.3% mom in Jun
Canada’s retail sales fell -0.8% mom to CAD 66.1B in May, worse than expectation of -0.5% mom. Sales were down in eight of nine subsectors, led by decreases at food and beverage retailers. Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor...
USD/JPY Outlook: Bear-Trap Underpins But Recovery Still Faces Headwinds
USDJPY remains constructive on Friday and attempts to further extend Thursday’s strong bounce, with recovery being supported by signals of a double bear-trap, following a false break below pivotal Fibo support at 156.04 and thin daily cloud (spanned between 155.83 and...
Silver Sinks Below 30 – Action Forex
Silver erases June’s gains; eyes on 28.50 Technical signals favor the bears Silver’s performance took a hit, marking its worst week in 2024 as the US dollar switched to recovery mode and investors questioned China’s economic outlook. As a result, the metal swiftly...
Canadian Dollar Eyes Retail Sales Ahead of Rate Meeting
The Canadian dollar is calm on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3717, up 0.08% on the day at the time of writing. We could see stronger movement in the North American session, with the release of Canadian retail sales. Will retail sales suffer...
ECB’s Villeroy: Market rate cut expectations “rather reasonable”
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau spoke on French radio BFM Business today, expressing that current market expectations for interest rate cuts seem “rather reasonable.” Markets are currently pricing in nearly two ECB rate cuts for the remainder...
ECB Not Confident that September Will Bring the Second Rate Ccut
TSM announced better-than-expected quarterly results and lifted its growth projections for this year’s revenue. Good news helped limiting the previous day selloff in chip stocks yesterday but couldn’t prevent the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 from closing Thursday’s...
GBPJPY Retraces Lower After Hitting 16-year High
GBPJPY pulls back from its highest level since August 2008 RSI and MACD ease but remain in positive territories GBPJPY has been in a prolonged uptrend since early 2024, posting a 16-year high of 208.10 on July 11. However, the pair has been undergoing a pullback since...
USDCAD Advances Within Trading Range
USDCAD bounces off 1.3600 and 200-day SMA Momentum oscillators suggest more gains USDCAD has been still developing within a trading range of 1.3600 and 1.3790 since April 17, with strong support at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The recent rebound from...
ECB’s Simkus: Interest rates are getting lower, quite significantly
ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus shared his views with reporters today, indicating that his outlook aligns with current market expectations, which anticipate two rate cuts this year. Simkus commented, “Interest rates are getting lower and, I think, will...
FX option expiries for 19 July 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will rely on the same key drivers from the day before mostly. The dollar saw recovery flows yesterday with yields pushing higher, so that will remain in contention in the session...
Dollar Strengthens as DOW Plunges; Yen Struggles to Extend Rally
Dollar rebounded broadly overnight following steep 500+ point selloff in DOW. Some analysts cited rotation away from big tech as the cause, but the decline was broad-based. Profit-taking could be a more likely factor after recent record runs, as traders and Fed...
(ECB) Monetary policy decisions – Action Forex
18 July 2024 The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The incoming information broadly supports the Governing Council’s previous assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. While some measures of underlying inflation...
ECB stands pat, headline inflation to stay above target well into next year
ECB left interest rates unchanged as wildly expected. Interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility are held at 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively. In the accompanying statement, ECB noted that incoming information broadly support the...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0907; (P) 1.0928; (R1) 1.0960; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first with current retreat. Some consolidations would be seen below 1.0947 temporary top. But downside should be contained by 1.0871 support to bring another rally....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2968; (P) 1.3006; (R1) 1.3048; More… A temporary top should be formed at 1.3043 as GBP/USD retreated after hitting rising channel resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Downside should be contained by 1.2859...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8790; (P) 0.8871; (R1) 0.8915; More… USD/CHF’s decline is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Fall from 0.9223 should target 60% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8672 next. On the upside, above 0.8884 minor resistance...
EUR/USD – Slightly Lower as ECB Holds Interest Rates
The euro has edged lower on Thursday. Early in the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0919, down 0.18% on the day. The euro hasn’t posted a losing day since July 9, gaining 1% during that period. ECB maintains rates at 3.75% The European Central Bank...
EUR/USD Outlook: Dips from New High Following ECB Decision
EURUSD eases further from new multi-week high (1.0948) as markets digested ECB’s decision to stay on hold and repeat its mantra that future action will be dependent on incoming economic data. On the other hand, confidence that the ECB will deliver two more rate cuts...
UK Jobs Data Cooled the Pound
The UK labour market is experiencing a cooling phase. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in June increased by 32.3K after a jump of 51.9K a month earlier. Prior to that, this indicator had been drifting for almost two years, adding an average of 2.5K...
JPY Technical Outlook: Price Action on USD/JPY, GBP/JPY
Japanese authorities have not confirmed whether they have intervened in the market to support the Yen. USD/JPY broke a long-term descending trendline but found support near the 100-day MA and 155.00 level. Price Action outlook and potential setups on USD/JPY and...
Is AUDCAD Ready to Extend Its Uptrend?
AUDCAD prints higher highs and higher lows RSI and MACD detect positive momentum Break above 0.9260 could signal trend continuation Dip below 0.9125 may allow a decent correction AUDCAD rebounded today from slightly above the support of 0.9270, marked by the low of...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The ECB kept its key policy rates unchanged today in an unanimous decision. In its policy statement, the central bank repeats that it doesn’t pre-commit to a particular rate path. They follow a meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach to determining the...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.29; (P) 156.95; (R1) 157.84; More… USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 is seen as correcting whole rally from 140.25. Deeper decline is expected as long as 158.85 resistance holds, to 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 163.65. On the upside, above...
Subdued Forex Trading as ECB Holds Rates Steady
Trading in the forex markets has been relatively subdued today. ECB’s decision to hold interest rates steady was widely expected, and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference did not introduce any significant new information. ECB’s accompanying statement...
US initial jobless claims rises to 243k vs exp 225k
US initial jobless claims rose 20k to 243k in the week ending July 13, above expectation of 225k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1k to 235k. Continuing claims rose 20k to 1867k in the week ending July 6, highest since November 27, 2021. Four-week...
USDCHF Elliott Wave Analysis Favors Selling Bounces
Hello traders, welcome to a new blog post. Today, we will discuss the future path for the USDCHF currency pair. The recent breakout confirmed the bearish bias we shared with members of Elliottwave-Forecast. So, what is next for this pair in the coming weeks? On April...
Brent Oil Price Trends Upward Amid Positive Market Signals
Brent crude oil has reached $85.40, marking a continued increase over two consecutive sessions. This upward trend is primarily supported by recent US energy inventory statistics, which showed a significant decrease of 4.87 million barrels against an anticipated...
Change of Heart from Fed Governor Waller Significant
Markets We’ve given Fed governor Waller plenty of attention this year. He’s been the voice of the large minority inside the Fed who from the beginning of the year has been pushing to keep policy rates at their peak levels for longer. Markets had to gradually retrace...
Elliott Wave Intraday: Rally in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Looking Impulsive
Rally from 7.5.2024 low in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) looks impulsive suggesting further upside. Pullback to 53570 ended wave ((4)) and Bitcoin has turned higher in wave ((5)). The crypto currency still needs to break the previous all-time high on 3.14.2024 high at 73794 to...
Commodity Currencies in Stable Ranges: Should We Expect a Breakout?
The currency pairs AUD/USD and USD/CAD, unlike the pairs with the Euro, Yen, and Sterling, continue to demonstrate long-term stability. These pairs have been trading in narrow price corridors for several months. Given the weakening of the dollar in many directions,...
USDJPY: What’s Happening With JPY? Scenarios after BoJ Intervention
Bullish Scenario: Buy above 156.45 with targets at 157.16, 157.90, and 158.10 in extension. Set S.L below 155.80 or at least 1% of the account’s capital. Apply Trailing Stop. Bearish Scenario: Sell below 157.16 or 157.90 (where a PAR* forms) with TP1: 156.00, 155.80,...
EURUSD Reaches the Midpoint of a Long-Term Downtrend
EURUSD rally slows down near 4-month high Gets bearish vibes, but positive trend is still alive above 1.0900 ECB to hold interest rates steady at 12:15 GMT; Will it signal a second rate cut? EURUSD took a breather after heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut lifted...
Some USD/JPY option expiries to be aware of for 10am NY time today
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
WTI Oil Futures Hold Above 80.00
WTI futures rebound from a 3-week low Next target for the bulls is the July peak of 84.50 Momentum indicators are cautiously tilted to the upside WTI oil futures (August delivery) had been in a steady uptrend since early June before experiencing a pullback following...
FX option expiries for 18 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are all for EUR/USD centered near the 1.0900 level. If anything else, that should help to limit any downside shoves in the session ahead at least before we get to the ECB policy decision later.Besides...
Euro Mixed as ECB Rate Decision Looms
While Euro maintains its strength against Dollar, its performance is more mixed against other major currencies. The market’s attention is now focused on the upcoming ECB rate decision and press conference. It is broadly anticipated that ECB will maintain deposit rate...
AUD/USD: Market Stabilizes Amid Rate Cut Expectations
The Australian dollar has stabilized against the US dollar, currently trading around 0.6738. This follows a period of decline influenced by ongoing speculations regarding the US Federal Reserve’s impending policy actions. Expectations are set for the Fed to initiate...
GBP Looks Stronger Than USD Thanks to Inflation
A batch of inflation statistics from the UK seems to have fuelled the Pound’s rally against the Dollar and Euro, which has been going strong since the beginning of the month. Consumer inflation remained at 2.0%, with the core index at 3.5% y/y. At the same time,...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2948; (P) 1.2965; (R1) 1.2992; More… GBP/USD’s rally resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 1.2298 should target 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2859 from 1.2612 at 1.3173, which is slightly...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0877; (P) 1.0900; (R1) 1.0916; More…. EUR/USD’s rally resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Break of 1.0915 resistance should now extend the rise from 1.0601 to 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915 from 1.0665...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8922; (P) 0.8951; (R1) 0.8967; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the downside as fall from 0.9049 resumed through 0.8914 temporary low. Deeper decline is expected to retest 0.8825 support next. Firm break there will resume whole fall from...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.93; (P) 158.39; (R1) 158.88; More… USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 resumed by breaking through 157.16 support and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current decline is seen as correcting whole rally from 140.25. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets After last-week’s softer than expected US CPI data, global investors gained ever greater confidence that the Fed will embark for a genuine, protracted easing cycle soon. Yields turned south, especially at the short end of the (US) yield curve. The dollar faced...
Australian Dollar Eyes Employment Report
The Australian dollar is steady on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6743 early in the North American session, up 0.08% on the day. Australia releases the June employment report early on Thursday. The market estimate stands at 20 thousand, compared to 39.7 thousand...
USD/JPY Outlook: Sharply Down, Markets Suspect Intervention
USDJPY was sharply down on Wednesday (down 1.3% during the European / early US session), with markets suspecting another intervention, after Japan’s authorities intervened in the market and pushed yen away from the lowest levels in nearly four decades.. Although...
Fed’s Waller suggests rate cuts may be nearing
In a speech today, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that Fed is “getting closer” to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted. He noted that Q2 data on inflation and the labor market has moderated, suggesting that “progress toward...
EUR/CHF Technical: Euro Underperformance Over Swiss Franc May Have Resumed
The recent 4-week rally of EUR/CHF from 19 June has started to show signs of exhaustion. The ongoing weakness of the France CAC 40 has triggered a negative feedback loop towards EUR/CHF. Watch the 0.9780 key short-term resistance on the EUR/CHF. The EUR/CHF cross pair...
Yen Jumps Amid Rumored Intervention; Pound Rises with Fading BoE Rate Cut Hopes
Yen surged significantly against all major currencies during European session, with speculation on whether Japan has intervened again in the markets. Last week, it was rumored that Japanese authorities had spent JPY 3.5 trillion to prop up Yen. Despite this, top...
Gold Shines at Fresh All-Time High
Gold ends sideways trajectory; enters uncharted territory Short-term bias positive but overbought signals suggest some caution A close above 2,480 might be necessary to boost buying confidence Gold bulls powered ahead to finally exit the three-month range and chart an...
GBP/USD Outlook: Cable Rises Above 1.3000 and Hits New 2024 High
Cable surged through psychological 1.30 barrier and hit its highest in one year on Wednesday, after hotter than expected UK June inflation data tempered expectations for first BoE rate cut in next month policy meeting. Fresh strength after a two-day pause for...
Fed’s Williams sees positive signs in inflation trend, awaiting more data
New York Fed President John Williams, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, indicated that recent inflation readings over the past three months are “getting us closer to a disinflationary trend that we’re looking for,” noting these as “positive signs.”...
Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Poised For Fresh Gains
AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 0.6715 support. NZD/USD is also rising and could target the 0.6090 resistance. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar found support at 0.6715 and recovered higher against the US...
Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.5% in Jun, core at 2.9%
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.5% yoy in June, down from May’s 2.6% yoy. CPI core (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 2.9% yoy, unchanged from prior month’s reading. The highest contribution to annual inflation rate came from services (+1.84...
Analysis of XAU/USD: Gold Price Sets Historical Record
As the XAU/USD chart shows, on 16th July, the gold price rose above $2460 for the first time in history. The bullish sentiment is driven by: → Anticipation of Fed rate cuts, as the appeal of non-yielding bullion generally increases in low-interest-rate environments. →...
XAU/USD Outlook: Gold Hits New Record High
Gold hit new record high early Wednesday ($2482), following acceleration through former top on Tuesday (metal was up 1.9% for the day, the biggest daily gain since Dec 13). Break above previous all-time high ($2450) signaled an end of corrective phase ($2450/$2286)...
EURGBP Trades to a New 2024 Low
EURGBP drops to the lowest level since August 2022 Political unrest and weaker economic data keep the euro under pressure Momentum indicators could point to a reversal soon EURGBP is hovering around the lowest level since August 2022, having recorded a decent...
GBPUSD Hits Fresh 1-Year High
GBPUSD jumps to fresh 1-year high after UK CPI surprises slightly higher Technical indicators point to overbought conditions following steep rally UK employment figures next on the agenda due on Thursday 06:00 GMT The UK CPI inflation data on Wednesday gave GBPUSD a...
FX option expiries for 17 July 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for USD/JPY at the 158.50 level. It isn't one that holds any technical significance but could help to keep price action more contained before we get to US trading. That said, be wary of any surprises...
Sterling Steady, Kiwi Rebounds, Gold Hits Record
Forex markets have been relatively subdued today. Sterling remains steady after June’s UK CPI data revealed that both headline and core inflation were unchanged from the previous month. Significantly, services inflation also failed to cool, which could keep BoE...
US retail sales steady in Jun, ex-auto sales up 0.4% mom
US retail sales was steady mom at USD 704.3B in June, above expectation of -0.20% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.4% mom to USD 573.6B, above expectation of 0.1% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.2% mom to USD 652.4B. Ex-auto and gasoline sales rose 0.8% mom to USD 507.1B....
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0877; (P) 1.0900; (R1) 1.0916; More…. EUR/USD’s retreat from 1.0921 extends lower today but stays well above 1.0805 support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Some more consolidations would be seen but further rally is in favor. Firm...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2955; (P) 1.2975; (R1) 1.2988; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 1.2994 temporary top. But further rally is expected as long as 1.2859 resistance turned support holds. Above 1.2994 will resume the rally from...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8937; (P) 0.8955; (R1) 0.8975; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral first. Another fall is mildly in favor with 0.9000 resistance intact. Below 0.8914 will bring retest of 0.8825 low. However, break of 0.9000 will turn bias back to the...
U.S. Headline Retail Sales Flat in June, But Core Accelerated
Retail sales was virtually unchanged month-over-month in June. Despite this, the reading was still higher than the consensus forecast calling for a decrease of -0.3%. Additionally, May’s figure was revised upwards to a 0.3% monthly gain (previously 0.1%). Trade in the...
Canadian Inflation Eases, But Details a Mixed Bag
Headline CPI inflation decelerated in June to 2.7% year-on-year (y/y), right on consensus expectations and below last month’s 2.9% y/y print. The deceleration was led by gasoline prices, which dropped 3.1% month-on-month (m/m), compared to the +5.6% m/m gain last...
Kiwi Coming into Strong Support Ahead of Inflation Data
NZDUSD is coming out of consolidation, suggesting that the price action since the start of July was a triangle in wave B. Therefore, the whole retracement from June 12th is much more complex and deeper but still has a corrective shape. It looks like we are just...
USD/CAD Steady After Canadian CPI, US Retail Sales
The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3687, up 0.03% on the day at the time of writing. Canada’s CPI lower than expected Canada followed the US and posted a better-than-expected inflation...
ECB Could Disappoint Expectations for a Dovish Shift
ECB meets with near zero chances for a rate cut ECB members continue to disagree about the rates outlook A dovish shift looks unlikely as the focus rests with the Fed Euro showing unexpected strength despite political unrest ECB meets but all eyes remain on the US The...
Gold’s Astounding Rally and the Challenges Ahead
Gold gains around 18% year-to-date But is it time for the uptrend to cool down a bit? Even if so, the broader outlook remains positive Gold shines bright Gold had a great year-to-date performance, gaining around 18% and hitting a record high of 2450 on May 20. As...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Global core bonds gained some ground going into today’s main dish, US retail sales. UK gilts slightly outperformed Bunds and Treasuries as markets gear for tomorrow’s June CPI numbers. A further easing on all accounts is expected but the sub 2% drop in the...
Dollar Gains After Retail Sales Boost; Gold Nears New Record
Dollar bounces higher in early US session, buoyed by stronger-than-expected retail sales data. This resilience in consumer spending comes despite the persistent high inflation and elevated interest rates. The robust retail sales figures lend support to Fed’s soft...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.32; (P) 157.88; (R1) 158.57; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidations above 157.61. On the downside, break of 157.16 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 157.72) will bring deeper correction to 38.2% retracement...
Canada CPI slows to 2.7% yoy in June, down-0.1% mom
Canada’s CPI slowed from 2.9% yoy to 2.7% yoy in June. The deceleration was largely the result of slower year-over-year growth in gasoline prices, which rose 0.4% in June following a 5.6% increase in May. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.8% yoy. Looking at the core...
GBP/USD Faces Challenges in Breaking Through Key 1.3000 Level
GBP/USD struggles to break above the 1.3000 level despite softer US data and a dovish comment from Fed Chair Powell. UK inflation data will be crucial in determining whether GBP/USD can break above 1.3000. Technical analysis suggests GBP/USD may struggle to break...
USD/JPY: May fall Further If US Retail Sales Miss in June
USDJPY remains in extended consolidation of last week’s sharp fall, sparked by US inflation data and intervention by Japanese authorities. Near-term action is holding above 55DMA (157.55) which repeatedly contained dips and marks solid support for now. Traders also...
XAU/USD: Gold Advances Further on Powell’s Dovish Stance
Gold price rose further in early Tuesday following more dovish tones from Fed Powell in his speech on Monday, which contributes to growing expectations that the Fed may soon decide to start cutting interest rates. Powell pointed to the recent inflation data which...
Gold Nears Record High as Fed Rate Cut Looms
Gold prices have surged, reaching $2430 per troy ounce on Tuesday, flirting with historic highs. The recent spike in gold prices is largely attributed to comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which have bolstered expectations of an impending...
German ZEW falls to 41.8, first decline in a year
Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment fell from 47.5 to 41.8 in July, below expectation of 44.3. That’s also the first decline in a year since July 2023. Current Situation Index rose from -73.8 to -68.9, above expectation of -73.0. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment fell from...
Eurozone goods exports fall -0.5% yoy in May, imports down -6.4% yoy
Eurozone goods exports fell -0.5% yoy to EUR 241.5B in May. Goods imports fell -6.4% yoy to EUR 227.6B. Trade balance showed a EUR 13.9B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade fell -5.6% yoy to EUR 216.0B. In seasonally adjusted term, goods exports fell -2.6% mom to EUR...
NZD: Will Bearish Momentum Halt?
The NZDUSD pair remains under pressure near 0.6075 in early Asian trading on Tuesday, affected by weak Chinese economic data and a modest rebound in the US Dollar. Attention is on the upcoming US Retail Sales data for June. Focus will also shift to New Zealand’s CPI...
EURJPY Pulls Back from 32-Year High
EURJPY jumped to its highest since January 1992 last week But corrected lower after suspected Japanese intervention Oscillators weaken but remain above neutral zones EURJPY has been in a steep uptrend since the beginning of the year, storming to consecutive multi-year...
FX option expiries for 16 July 10am New York cut
There is one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.It is for EUR/USD and seen at the 1.0900 level once again. That is likely to help contain price action and limit any overextensions beyond the figure level, at least until we get to the US retail...
Yen Softens as Rebound Fades; Loonie Looks to Canadian CPI
Yen weakened broadly during Asian session today, giving back some of last week’s strong gains that were reportedly driven by Japan’s market intervention. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi repeated in a press conference that it is crucial for currency...
Nikkei Index Has Risen To a Two-Month High
As we reported on 26th June, analysing the Nikkei 225 chart (Japan 225 on FXOpen): → The price is in a significant upward trend (shown by the blue channel); → The price may continue to rise along the median line. Since then, the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen)...
Bitcoin Has Surfaced Following a Dive
Market picture On Sunday, the cryptocurrency market moved to a rapid rise, completing a consolidation after a correction. Cryptocurrencies positively played off the strengthening chances of Trump’s victory after the assassination attempt. In addition, buyers were...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0876; (P) 1.0893; (R1) 1.0925; More…. No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment. Decisive break of 1.0915 resistance will resume whole rise from 1.0601 to 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915 from 1.0665...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2930; (P) 1.2960; (R1) 1.3019; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias remains on the upside. Rise from 1.2298 is in progress for 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2859 from 1.2612 at 1.3173, which is slightly above 1.3141 key medium...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets Some segments of the US yield curve disinverted in the wake of the Trump shooting. The presidential candidate’s odds to win the November election have increased as a result. His pro-business (for the US at least) agenda is seen as a boost to the economy as...
News of the Week (July 15—19): EURGBP Outlook!
The EURGBP, representing the exchange rate between the Euro and the British Pound, is a key measure of economic interplay between the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. The Euro’s value is primarily influenced by the financial policies and performance of the Eurozone...
A Clearer Shape of a Long-Term Dollar Decline
While Trump’s rise to power is widely seen as a positive for the dollar, the dollar index hit a one-month low on Monday as it continues to rebound from the Fed’s latest softening tone and inflation slowdown. The impact of Trump’s policies on the dollar is largely...
Bullish Pound Eyes $1.30 Ahead of UK Inflation Test
June CPI numbers the highlight of this week’s UK data flurry Could the Bank of England cut interest rates next month? Pound undeterred as it extends July gains Job stats and retail sales to follow Wednesday’s CPI report (06:00 GMT) On target Inflation in the UK peaked...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8927; (P) 0.8949; (R1) 0.8966; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF is neutral for the moment, but further fall is expected with 0.9000 resistance intact. Below 0.8914 will target 0.8825 low. Break of 0.8825 will target 50% retracement of 0.8332 to...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.03; (P) 158.24; (R1) 159.12; More… USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 is seen as correcting the whole five-wave rally from 140.25. Deeper decline is in favor and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 157.67) will affirm this bearish case. Next target...
Calm Markets Await Powell’s Insights on Disinflation and Rate Cuts
Global financial markets lack clear direction today. Major European stock indexes are trading slightly lower, while US futures indicate a modestly higher open. Investors are unfazed by the assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump, maintaining a calm...
GBP/USD Outlook: Cable Holding Near 1.3000 Barrier Ahead of Powell’s Speech
Cable keeps form tone on Monday and hit new yearly high, trading just ticks under psychological 1.30 barrier. The pair advanced strongly in past two weeks and bulls may start to lose traction on facing headwinds from 1.30 resistance, as daily studies are overbought,...
Gold’s Rally Stalls at 7-Week High
Gold jumped to its highest level since May 22 last week But fails to extend rally, trading flat in past couple of sessions Despite latest weakness, oscillators remain positively tilted Gold has been experiencing solid gains since late June, with the break above its...
Oil Price Update – Oil Prices Hold Firm as Chinese Demand Concerns Rise
Oil prices remain stable despite a turbulent weekend and a strong US dollar. Chinese economic data, including disappointing GDP growth and declining refinery output, raises concerns about oil demand. The focus shifts from supply concerns in the US to demand worries in...
NZ Dollar Dips After Soft Services PMI
The New Zealand dollar has started the trading week in negative territory. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6097 in the European session, down 0.35% on the day at the time of writing. New Zealand Services PMI slips The week started on a sour note in New Zealand as the Services...
EURUSD Jumps to a Fresh 1-month High
EURUSD edges higher after break above SMAs The pair advances to its highest level since June 4 Oscillators suggest that bullish forces are strengthening EURUSD has been in a steady uptrend after the bullish breakout from its downward sloping trendline in place since...
Japanese Yen Surges Amidst Potential Interventions
The Japanese yen showed significant strength against the US dollar late last week, with the USD/JPY pair currently stabilizing around 157.86. This marks the lowest level for the currency pair in nearly a month. The yen’s recent surge is attributed to widespread market...
Copper (HG_F) Elliott Wave : Buying the Dips at the Equal Legs Zone
In this technical article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Copper (HG_F) commodity , published in members area of the website. As our members know, Copper has recently given us correction against the October 2023 low. The commodity...
Eurozone industrial productions falls -0.6% mom in May, EU down -0.8% mom
Eurozone industrial production fell -0.6% mom in May, better than expectation of -1.0% mom. Production decreased by -1.0% for intermediate goods, 1.2% for capital goods, and 1.8% for durable consumer goods. Production increased by 0.8% for energy, and 1.6% for...
Bitcoin Once Again Above $60k
Analysing the long-term BTC/USD chart from 16th May, we constructed a “roadmap” for Bitcoin’s price, resembling an expanding fan consisting of a median and support levels below it, and resistance levels above it. Reviewing the BTC/USD chart last time (9 thJuly), we...
FX option expiries for 15 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD, centered closely in and around the 1.0900 mark. The ones at the figure level are quite huge in size, so they could act as a magnet on price action for the session ahead. That at...
Weaker China GDP Dampens Sentiment; ECB and Global Inflation Data Highlight the Week
Asian markets began the week with a cautious tone, as weaker-than-expected GDP growth from China dampened investor sentiment, even though the selloff in stocks has been limited. Today’s set of data, coupled with recent weak PMI readings, points to broader deceleration...
Gold as an Investment: Detailed Analysis and Price Forecasts for 2025-2050
Since ancient times, gold has remained a crucial element of global economies. Its unique properties have made it not only valuable as jewellery but also a reliable means of preserving wealth. Today, this metal constitutes a significant part of both investor portfolios...
Summary 7/15 – 7/19
Monday, Jul 15, 2024 Tuesday, Jul 16, 2024 Wednesday, Jul 17, 2024 Thursday, Jul 18, 2024 Friday, Jul 19, 2024 The post Summary 7/15 – 7/19 appeared first on Action Forex.
June Inflation Report and BOS Survey Set the Stage for BoC’s Next Rate Cut
The Bank of Canada’s quarterly Business Outlook Survey (BOS) and June’s inflation data will be the last major data releases before the BoC’s next interest rate announcement on July 24. We expect a slowdown in inflation after an upside surprise in May and for the BOS...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s late breach of 0.9754 resistance last week suggests that rise from 0.9476 is resuming. Initial bias is back on the upside this week. Further rally would be seen to retest 0.9928 high. On the downside, however, break of 0.9677 will turn bias to the downside...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s consolidation from 1.5996 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, further decline is expected as long as 1.6211 resistance holds. Break of 1.5996 will resume larger...
Dollar Plummets as Markets Brace for Double or Even Triple Fed Rate Cuts This Year
Dollar weakened broadly last weeks market expectations on Fed’s policy path shifted dramatically. The June US CPI report continued the narrative painted by the previous week’s Non-Farm Payroll data, both suggesting further cooling in economic activity and easing price...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s late break of 0.8396 support suggests that larger down trend is resuming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8619 to 0.8396 from 0.8498 at 0.8360. Firm break there could prompt downside acceleration...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY retreated sharply after edging higher to 208.09 last week. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, a short term top should be in place. Deeper pullback could be seen through 203.82 temporary low. But downside should be contained by 38.2%...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD edged lower to 1.3588 last week but recovered after hitting 1.3589 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 1.3589 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.3845 and target 100% projection of 1.3845 to 1.3589 from...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6361 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at 0.6837. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration through 0.6870 resistance to 100%...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s strong break of 1.2859 resistance last week confirmed resumption of rally from 1.2298. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2859 from 1.2612 at 1.3173, which is slightly above 1.3141 key medium term...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s sharp decline last week confirmed short term topping at 161.94. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, fall from 161.94 is likely corrective whole five-wave rally from 140.25. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 160.25 support turned...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s rally continued last week and hit as high as 1.0910. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Firm break of 1.0915 will resume howl rise from 1.0601 to 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915 from 1.0665 at 1.0979. On the downside, below 1.0859 minor support...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9049 continued last week despite interim recovery. As noted before, rebound from 8825 should have completed after rejection by channel resistance. Deeper decline is expected as long as 0.9000 resistance holds, to 0.8825 low. Break of 0.8825 will...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY fell sharply after edging higher to 175.41 last week. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, a short term top should be in place. Deeper correction cannot be ruled out. But for now, downside should be contained by 170.87 and bring rebound, to set...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Balanced Risks Drive the FOMC Closer to a September Rate Cut
Summary United States: Fed’s Challenge: Making Sure Fire Is Out vs. Water Damage We learned this week that CPI declined in June and core prices rose at the slowest clip since early 2021. With the inflation target in sight, Fed policymakers are taking stock of...
The Weekly Bottom Line: U.S. – Inflation Cooling
U.S. Highlights U.S. inflation eased by more than expected in the month of June, raising the likelihood of a September rate cut. Small business confidence continued to edge higher in June, though several forward-looking indicators suggests some softening in the months...
The Week Ahead – ECB Spotlight as Fed Rate Speculations Drive Market Shifts
US inflation data caused a significant selloff in US mega-cap tech stocks and a shift towards riskier areas of the market. The ECB interest rate decision is expected to bring no change, but the bank lending survey may shed light on the impact of higher rates on the...
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Eyes 1.3000 While EUR/GBP Struggles
GBP/USD is gaining pace above the 1.2900 resistance. EUR/GBP declined and is now consolidating losses above the 0.8400 region. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2950. There is a key...
Nasdaq 100 Index Fell Despite Positive Inflation News
Yesterday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) values were published, indicating a slowdown in the rate of inflation in the USA. According to ForexFactory: → CPI month-on-month: actual = -0.1%, forecast = 0.1%, previous month = 0.0%; → CPI year-on-year: actual = 3.0%, forecast...
NZ Dollar Edges Higher Despite Soft Mfg. Data
The New Zealand dollar is slightly higher on Friday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6110 in the European session, up 0.24% on the day at the time of writing. New Zealand dollar showing big swings It has been a volatile few days for the New Zealand dollar. On Wednesday,...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.97; (P) 159.37; (R1) 161.30; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Deeper decline is expected with 160.25 support turned resistance intact. Fall from 161.94 is seen as corrective the five-wave rally from 140.25. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8919; (P) 0.8961; (R1) 0.9007; More… No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as further decline is expected with 0.9000 resistance intact. Deeper decline would be seen to 0.88825 support. Fall from 0.9223 should be in progress with near term channel...
EUR/USD Outlook: Bulls Hold Grip for Further Advance
EURUSD continues to trend higher, with minimal negative impact from hotter than expected US PPI data (Jun 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% f/c and 0.0% in May). The latest bull-leg extends into third straight and day pressuring Thursday’s post US CPI spike high (1.0898) which guards...
Week Ahead – ECB Set to Hold Rates, Plethora of Data on the Way
ECB is not expected to cut in July but will it signal one for next meeting? Retail sales will be the main highlight in the United States UK CPI report will be vital for BoE’s August decision China GDP data to kickstart busy week ECB meets amid sticky inflation The...
A September Fed Rate Cut Could Lead to Easing Spree During end-2024
Market prices in at least two rate cuts from Fed ECB, BoE expected to follow suit despite divergent economic conditions SNB and BoC could ease further; RBNZ possibly close to a summer rate cut BoJ and RBA could surprise with rate hikes during 2024 We are halfway into...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2858; (P) 1.2903; (R1) 1.2960; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Decisive break of 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2859 from 1.2612 at 1.2959 would prompt upside acceleration through 1.3141 resistance to 100%...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0829; (P) 1.0864; (R1) 1.0904; More…. No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 1.0915 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 1.0601 and target 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915...
Dollar Softens Post-PPI Release, Yet Selling Momentum Remains Limited
Dollar is under some selling pressure in early US session despite stronger-than-expected PPI readings. However, downside momentum of the greenback is relatively limited. The post-CPI selloff yesterday did not gain significant traction, partly because stock markets...
US PPI rises 0.2% mom, 2.6% yoy, largest annual advance in more than a year
US PPI for final demand rose 0.2% mom in June, slightly above expectation of 0.1% mom. PPI rose 2.6% yoy for the 12 months ended in June, above expectation of 2.2% yoy. That’s also the largest annual advance since March 2023. PPI less foods, energy, and trade services...
Analysis of USD/JPY: Was There an Intervention?
Yesterday’s news of slowing inflation in the US sharply weakened the dollar, anticipating the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing. In the first 15 minutes after the data release: → EUR/USD rose by approximately 0.45% to the psychological level of 1.09; → GBP/USD...
Corporates Have Weighed in on Crypto Once Again
Market picture The crypto market capitalisation fell by 0.8% in 24 hours to $2.11 trillion. An attempt to strengthen the market’s offensive on news about inflation in the US attracted new sellers, which this time can easily be linked to the similar dynamics of the...
USD/JPY Stabilizes After Massive Slide
The Japanese yen has edged lower on Friday, after posting huge gains a day earlier. USD/JPY is trading at 159.16 in the European session, up 0.26% on the day at the time of writing. Japanese yen soars – soft US inflation or intervention? The US dollar was down against...
Cliff Notes: Shifting Risks and Rhetoric
Key insights from the week that was. The July Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Survey confirmed that households remain downbeat, with the headline index falling 1.1% to 82.7. The latest update continues to speak to a challenging context, characterised by a resurgence in...
GBPJPY Hits 20-Day SMA After Multi-Year High
GBPJPY may start bearish correction Stochastics move down; RSI ticks up GBPJPY suffered significant losses following an aggressive rally to the multi-year high of 208.10. The pair found immediate support at the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of 203.80, keeping the...
XAU/USD: Gold May Rally Further After US CPI Data Boosted Bets for September Fed Rate Cut
Gold price eases from new seven-week high on Friday morning, as traders took some profits from Thursday’s 1.9% post-US CPI data rally. The yellow metal received fresh boost from cooler than expected US inflation, which boosted bets (93% from 70% before the data) for...
Japanese Yen Surges: Potential Intervention Amid Inflation Shocks
The USD/JPY pair experienced a significant drop to 159.06, driven by sharp declines following the release of unexpectedly low US inflation figures and potential interventions from Japanese authorities. On Thursday, the pair plunged nearly 3%, prompted by US inflation...
USDCAD Trades Sideways as 200-SMA Provides Support
USDCAD is rangebound in the past few sessions The 200-day SMA caps the pair’s downside Momentum indicators are negatively tilted USDCAD had been hovering around its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the past two months, appearing incapable of clearing this...
FX option expiries for 12 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. That could be a bit of a magnet for price action and if anything else, limit any major pullback to the gains from yesterday. That is before the expiries roll...
Yen’s Sharp Rally Pauses, Japan Declines to Confirm Intervention
Japanese Yen is currently the best performer of the week, bolstered by alleged intervention by Japanese authorities overnight. Both Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and outgoing top currency official Masato Kanda declined to confirm whether Japan had intervened, with...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.38; (P) 161.59; (R1) 161.93; More… USD/JPY declines sharply in early US session and breaks 160.25 support decisively. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, fall from 161.49 might already be correcting the whole five-wave rally from...
US: Inflationary Pressures Cool Faster than Expected in June, Bolstering Case for September Rate Cut
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% month-on-month (m/m), below the consensus forecast calling for a modest 0.1% gain. On a twelve-month basis, CPI edged lower by 0.3 percentage points to 3.0%. Lower energy prices – largely attributed to a 3.7% decline in...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8973; (P) 0.8987; (R1) 0.9011; More… USD/CHF’s decline from 0.9049 resumed by breaking through 0.8942 support and intraday bias remains is back on the downside for retesting 0.8825. Fall from 0.9223 should be in progress with near term channel...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2800; (P) 1.2825; (R1) 1.2872; More… GBP/USD’s rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2859 from 1.2612 at 1.2959. Decisive break there would prompt upside acceleration through 1.3141 to 100%...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0817; (P) 1.0824; (R1) 1.0838; More…. EUR/USD’s rise from 1.0665 resumed by breaking through 1.0844 temporary top and intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.0915 resistance. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.0601 and target 100%...
AUD/USD Mid-Day Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6735; (P) 0.6744; (R1) 0.6755; More... Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as current rally continues to 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at 0.6837. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration through 0.6870...
EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 174.50; (P) 174.83; (R1) 175.45; More… EUR/JPY’s strong break of 173.50 support suggests that a short term top was formed at 175.41, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. But there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. While deeper pullback...
ECB Preview – Holiday Season
The ECB meeting next week is expected to be largely a stock taking meeting and not a place to send new policy signals. The meeting by meeting and data dependent approach is clear and Lagarde has highlighted that the profit, wages and productivity data will be key,...
EUR/GBP Technical: Make the Pound Great Again
EUR/GBP has resumed its downward trajectory since the start of the year, now trading close to a 2-year low at 0.8320. Unfavourable political environment in France versus a newly formed Labour-led UK government that favours pro-growth policies may see further...
June CPI: September Rate Cut Incoming
Summary This morning’s CPI report was arguably the most encouraging one the FOMC has received since it began its inflation fight nearly two and a half years ago. Consumer prices declined by 0.1%, led lower by a drop in energy prices and a modest increase in food...
GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 206.68; (P) 207.25; (R1) 208.34; More… GBP/JPY’s steep decline and strong break of 206.12 support suggest that a short term top is formed at 208.09, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside...
Fed Sep Cut Now Realistic after US CPI; Japan Intervenes to Boost Yen?
Dollar tumbled sharply in early US session following lower-than-expected consumer inflation readings. Headline CPI showed its first month-over-month decline since early 2023, while core CPI annual rate unexpectedly slowed to its lowest level since April 2021. Now, a...
US initial jobless claims falls to 222k vs exp 239k
US initial jobless claims fell -17k to 222k in the week ending July 6, below expectation of 239k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -4k to 233.5k. Continuing claims fell -4k to 1852k in the week ending June 29. Four-week moving average of continuing...
GBP/USD: Stronger than Expected UK GDP Numbers Lift Cable to Four-Month High
Cable hit new four-month high in European trading on Thursday, lifted by better than expected UK May GDP numbers, which poured cold water on expectations for BoE rate cut next month. Fresh strength broke through pivotal barriers at 1.2846/60 (200WMA/former top June...
Pound on the Offensive – Action Forex
Positive news for the Pound, beyond the fact that England will play in the Euro-24 final. The monthly estimate showed that the economy grew by 0.4% in May (twice as much as expected) and that growth in the last three months accelerated to 1% year-on-year. That’s the...
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Jumps, USD/JPY Bulls Seem Unstoppable
EUR/USD is climbing higher above the 1.0800 level. USD/JPY surged above the 160.00 and 161.40 resistance levels. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today The Euro started a decent increase above the 1.0780 pivot level. There is a key bullish trend...
Markets Awaiting US Inflation Data: What is the Probability of Trend Reversals?
The major currency pairs are in a holding pattern following the release of the latest US labour market data and Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. The Fed Chair noted that the Federal Reserve has made “significant progress” in its mission to combat inflation,...
Crypto Lacks Bulls – Action Forex
Market picture It seems that all the market bulls have moved on to US and Japanese equities, avoiding cryptocurrencies. The cryptocurrency market failed to break out of its consolidation, and its capitalisation rolled back 1.3% to $2.13 trillion, inside the range from...
USD/CAD Price Outlook: 200-day MA Holds Ahead of US CPI Release
USD/CAD has been range-bound, reflecting US Dollar Index consolidation and potential rate differential between Canada and the US. Canada’s volatile inflation and struggling labor market increase pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC). USD/CAD is positioned between key...
AUDUSD Posts a Fresh 6-month High
AUDUSD breaks decisively above sideways pattern The price jumps to its highest since January 2024 Oscillators are flagging overbought conditions AUDUSD had been trading in a neutral range for more than two months, unable to adopt a clear directional impetus. However,...
Japanese Yen Faces Continued Decline Amid Interest Rate Differentials
The USD/JPY pair has risen to 161.65, with the market cautious ahead of today’s US consumer price index release. Despite this, the yen remains weakened by the significant interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve. Earlier this...
Dollar Mixed with Inflation Data on Deck; Sterling Maintains Lead
Dollar weakened notably against Sterling and Aussie overnight, but held steady against other currencies. Market focus is now on the upcoming US consumer inflation data, with expectations of a slowdown in the headline CPI and steady core CPI. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s...
FX option expiries for 11 July 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for USD/CHF at the 0.8950 level. It isn't one that holds any technical significance but could hold any downside pressure as it coincides with the weekly pivot. The ceiling for...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8965; (P) 0.8978; (R1) 0.8991; More… USD/CHF is staying in range of 0.8942/9049 and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, rebound from 0.8825 could have completed at 0.9049, after rejection by falling channel resistance. Below 0.8942...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.85; (P) 161.18; (R1) 161.63; More… USD/JPY is still staying in range below 161.95 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected with 160.25 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 161.94 will resume larger up trend to 61.8%...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2768; (P) 1.2797; (R1) 1.2815; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation continues below 1.2845. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2752) holds. Firm break of 1.2859 will resume the rally from 1.2298 and...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0802; (P) 1.0824; (R1) 1.0845; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation continues below 1.0844. Further rally is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0789) holds. On the upside, above 1.0844 will resume the rebound from...
New Zealand Dollar Takes a Tumble After RBNZ’s Dovish Tone
The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6081 in the European session, down 0.72% on the day at the time of writing. RBNZ’s dovish tone raises rate cut expectations The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the cash rate at 5.50% at...
AUD/NZD: Kiwi Torpedoed by Surprise Dovish Tilt from RBNZ
The Kiwi is the worst intraday performer among the major currencies as it slumped to a 4-week low against the US dollar. A dovish tilt in the latest RBNZ monetary policy statement has triggered a narrowing of the yield discount between the 2-year Australian and New...
Weak Inflation in China Clears the Way for Global Easing
China’s consumer inflation slowed from 0.3% y/y to 0.2% instead of the expected acceleration to 0.4%, bringing investors’ attention back to weak demand. Meanwhile, manufacturing price deflation slowed from -1.4% y/y to -0.8% y/y, staying in negative territory for the...
GBPAUD Holds Above Key Support Area
GBPAUD consolidates above key support zone RSI and MACD detect negative momentum But a break below 1.8900 is needed to darken the outlook A rebound above 1.9350 may invite more bulls GBPAUD has been trading in a consolidative manner lately staying above the key...
UK Data Eyed as Pound Celebrates Labour Win
Monthly GDP and production figures for June on tap Strong data might hurt August rate cut expectations Pound flirts with $1.28 ahead of Thursday’s release (06:00 GMT) Uptick in GDP expected The UK economy got off to a solid start this year, emerging strongly from a...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets In today’s extremely dull trading session, some volatility in the New Zealand dollar, Norwegian krone and Czech koruna are keeping us somewhat entertained. You’ll find the latter two in the section down below. NZD is under pressure (NZD/USD 0.6078) following...
BoE’s Pill warns of uncomfortable strength in underlying inflation
In a speech today, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill highlighted that while it is “welcome news” that the UK’s headline CPI returned to 2% in May, it is crucial for the inflation target to be achieved on a “lasting and sustainable basis.” He emphasized three key indicators...
RBNZ Dovishness Hits Kiwi – Action Forex
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its benchmark interest rate at 5.5% for the eighth consecutive meeting, which was in line with analyst expectations. However, the central bank’s comments were softer than expected, dragging down NZDUSD by around 1% to 0.6070, a low...
Yen Weakness Persists in Calm Trading; Dollar Range-Bound
Yen continues its extended selloff today, except against New Zealand Dollar, in an otherwise subdued forex market. Reports indicate that BoJ may lower its economic growth forecasts for this year at its meeting later in July, while predicting that inflation will hover...
Fed Chair Explicitly Said He Didn’t Intend to Give Any Rate Timing Signals
Markets Fed Chair Powell before Congress yesterday reiterated that the US economy is coming into better balance. It made considerable progress toward the Fed’s 2% target. The labour market has cooled but remains strong. Even so, data still have to provide the MPC...
Crypto Market Looks to Return to Growth
Market Picture According to the sentiment index, the cryptocurrency market remains in a state of fear at 28. Still, market capitalisation rose for the second day in a row as lower prices attracted buyers. Capitalisation rose 1.9% to $2.16 trillion, surpassing previous...
NZD/USD Outlook: Kiwi Dollar Down 1% on Dovish RBNZ
NZDUSD was sharply lower during Wednesday morning (down almost 1% for the session) deflated by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovish stance. The central bank left interest rates unchanged at 5.5%, as widely expected, but signaled that the door for possible rate cut...
Analysis of NZD/USD: “Kiwi” Sharply Fell After Central Bank’s Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.5% on Wednesday. The decision to maintain the interest rate was anticipated. However, market participants noted a shift in the tone of the RBNZ’s official statements. In May, the bank...
USDJPY Reapproaches Multi-Year Highs – Action Forex
USDJPY edges higher after the pullback from 38-year high pauses The risk of a Japanese intervention is active at current levels Momentum indicators provide overbought signals USDJPY experienced a minor setback from its 38-year high of 161.95, which quickly came to a...
NZDUSD Tumbles After RBNZ’s Decision
NZDUSD finds support at 200-day SMA Prices have been heading lower over the last month Stochastics and RSI keep downside move NZDUSD is posting notable losses after the RBNZ’s policy decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.5%. The pair is pausing its decline...
Is It Time for Gold to Emerge Above Key Resistance?
Gold trades higher, but withing a broader sideways range RSI and MACD imply strengthening upside momentum A break above 2388 could add to the bullish case A dip below 2340 may allow declines within the range Gold is moving higher today, after hitting support near the...
Gold Prices Rise Amid Anticipation of Fed Rate Cut
Gold prices continue to experience an upward trend, reaching 2368 USD per troy ounce, fuelled by growing market anticipation of a potential rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. As investors focus on upcoming US inflation data, gold remains a focal point of investment...
NZD Tumbles on RBNZ Rate Cut Hints; Markets Largely Ignore Fed’s Powell
New Zealand Dollar plunged sharply after RBNZ’s more dovish than expected statement caught the market off guard. RBNZ’s indication of potential future rate cuts was unexpected, even though it’s not a hint on an imminent move. The central bank’s timing of this shift in...
FX option expiries for 10 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0770-75. However, the expiries do not hold much technical significance with key support still seen at around 1.0795-00 currently. That coincides with the confluence of the...
Crypto Bargain-Hunters Are Back – Action Forex
Market picture Bargain hunters are showing themselves in full force in crypto. Cryptocurrency market capitalisation rose 3.6% in 24 hours to $2.11 trillion, climbing back to the top of the range of the past five days. It will take the market to rise another 2% before...
XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Price Falls from Six-Week High
As shown by the XAU/USD chart, on Friday, 5 July, the price of gold rose above the $2390 level for the first time since 22 May. According to Reuters, this increase occurred following the release of key US employment data, which indicated a softening labour market,...
DAX Elliott Wave: Buying the Dips at the Blue Box Area
Hello fellow traders. In this article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of DAX published in members area of the website. As our members know DAX is showing impulsive bullish sequences and we are keep favoring the long side. Recently we got a...
GBP/USD Outlook: Bulls Pause ahead of Powell
Cable is holding within a narrow range under new multi-week high during European trading on Tuesday, as markets await today’s key event – the testimony of Fed Chair Powell. Long upper shadow of Monday’s daily candle and overbought conditions on daily chart suggest...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0802; (P) 1.0824; (R1) 1.0845; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 1.0844 temporary top. Further rally is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0783) holds. On the upside, above 1.0844 will resume the rebound...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2785; (P) 1.2815; (R1) 1.2838; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.2845. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2743) holds. Firm break of 1.2859 will resume the rally from 1.2298 and target...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8954; (P) 0.8966; (R1) 0.8987; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral for the moment. As noted before, rebound from 0.8825 could have completed at 0.9049, after rejection by falling channel resistance. Below 0.8942 will bring deeper fall to...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.28; (P) 160.84; (R1) 161.35; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected with 160.25 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 161.94 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of...
Euro Shrugs as Investor Confidence Tumbles
The euro is showing little movement on Tuesday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0819, up 0.05% on the day. The eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index resumed its losing ways on Monday. The index slid to -7.3 in July, after a 0.3 gain in June. Prior to the June reading, the...
NZD Edges Lower Ahead of RBNZ Decision
The New Zealand dollar is steady on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6115, down 0.16% in the European session at the time of writing. The New Zealand dollar looked sharp last week against the slumping US dollar, climbing 0.88%. Reserve Bank expected to hold rates...
Fed’s Powell highlights risks beyond elevated inflation
In his prepared remarks for the semiannual testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that it is not appropriate to cut interest rate until there is “greater confidence” that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. Nevertheless, He noted that recent...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets European markets were captured in an indecisive trading pattern yesterday, in the wake of the surprise win of the left alliance in the French elections. Spreads of France (and other peripheral EMU countries) initially tightened marginally as none of the...
Markets Await Fed Powell’s Insights, RBNZ on Deck
As US session kicks off, Dollar is trading mildly higher, with traders eagerly anticipating Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s two-day semiannual testimony before Congress. The key questions looming over the markets are whether the Fed will initiate interest rate cuts in...
Australian Dollar Drifting After Mixed Confidence Data
The Australian dollar continues to show little movement this week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6638 in the European session, up 0.02% on the day. Australia released mixed confidence indicators earlier today while there are no US economic releases. Federal Reserve Chair...
Gold Technical: Further Drift Down in 10-year UST Real Yield Supports Bullish Narrative in Gold
Recent rebound in WTI crude has remained below US$90/barrel which in turn led to a softening of inflationary expectations via the breakeven rates. A further downward drift in the 10-year US breakeven rate may a further drop in the 10-year US Treasury real yield. Lower...
Pound Preparing for Bullish Breakout
GBPUSD is trading near 1.28, which has acted as an area of resistance in the pair since last December. At the same time, the range of fluctuations of the pound is narrowing, as since October, the downside impulses have become less and less deep, with the price...
ECB’s Panetta backs gradual rate cuts amid stabilizing inflation
ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta indicated today the “reduction of official rates could proceed gradually”, in line with the return of inflation towards the ECB’s target. Speaking to bankers in Rome, Panetta emphasized that as long as macroeconomic trends...
WTI Outlook: Correction Should Find Firm Supports at $80 Zone
WTI oil price is easing for the third day, correcting lower from new multi-week high ($84.50, the highest since mid-Apr). Bulls lost traction after milder than expected impact of the hurricane on oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico, eased concerns about supply...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 173.54; (P) 174.08; (R1) 174.65; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 174.50 will resume the larger up trend and target 138.2% projection of 164.01 to 170.87 from 167.52 at 177.00. On the...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 205.28; (P) 205.98; (R1) 206.66; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD. On the upside, sustained break of 100% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 206.56 will target 138.2% projection at...
EURJPY Moves Beneath Its Lifetime High of 174.60
EURJPY struggles to jump above its recent high Momentum oscillators look overstretched EURJPY skyrocketed to a fresh multi-year high of 174.60 in the previous week but is currently hovering slightly below this level, with the technical oscillators suggesting an...
GBPUSD Advances Towards 2024 Highs
GBPUSD rebounds from its 50-day SMA The price jumps to its highest since June 12 Momentum indicators are tilted to the upside GBPUSD has been slowly gaining ground following its bounce off the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in late June. Moreover, the pair has...
FX option expiries for 9 July 10am New York cut
There are just two to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0800 and 1.0875 levels. The former is arguably the one with more interest, as it lines up near the key daily moving averages. The technical significance...
Dollar Recovers Ahead of Powell’s Testimony; Market Awaits Clues on Rate Cuts
Dollar is recovering mildly overnight, as traders prepare for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated two-day Congressional testimony. Powell is scheduled to address the Senate today and the House tomorrow. Fed’s latest dot plot suggests median expectation of...
News of the Week (July 8—12): NZDUSD Detailed Analysis!
The NZDUSD pair, often called the “Kiwi,” refers to the exchange rate between the New Zealand dollar and the US dollar and is an important indicator for understanding the economic relationship between New Zealand and the United States. The New Zealand dollar is...
EUR/USD Gains Ground Despite French Election Shocker
The euro has started the week with gains and is trading at 1.0836 in the European session, up 0.33% on the day. EUR/USD is coming off its best week of the year, gaining 1.19%. France veers to the left in Round 2 France has been on a political roller over the past two...
Oil Price Update – Oil Prices Fall as Gaza Talks and Hurricane Beryl Take Center Stage
Geopolitical events and weather disruptions are currently the main drivers of oil price fluctuations. OPEC+ production cuts have contributed to tighter oil markets, supporting prices. Can it continue? Technical analysis suggests key support and resistance levels to...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2773; (P) 1.2796; (R1) 1.2837; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside as rally from 1.2612 is in progress for retesting 1.2859 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1.2298 and target 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.28; (P) 160.84; (R1) 161.35; More… Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected with 160.25 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 161.94 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 61.8%...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8939; (P) 0.8973; (R1) 0.8992; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Rebound from 0.8825 could have completed at 0.9049, after rejection by falling channel resistance. Also, fall from 0.9223 is not completed yet....
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Yesterday’s second round in the French parliamentary elections resulted in a hung parliament, be it in a totally different setup than polls suggested. Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) unexpectedly finished third, securing 143 seats. Macron’s centrists...
USDJPY Finds Strong Support at Key Fibo Zone
USDJPY hits key Fibo retracement level But momentum indicators still point to weakness A break above 161.35 could pave the way towards 161.65 A slide below 160.35 may invite more bears USDJPY traded higher today after it triggered some buy orders near the 160.35...
June CPI Preview: Some Payback for May, but Downward Trend Remains
Summary Consumer price inflation likely firmed in June relative to May but remained on a downward trajectory through the month-to-month noise. We estimate headline CPI rose 0.1% in June, with a decline in gasoline prices helping keep the overall increase in prices...
Could US CPI Report Finally Bring About a Fed Pivot?
Further decline in headline CPI is expected in June Labour market is also showing signs of slowdown Will Thursday’s report (12:30 GMT) convince the Fed it’s time to cut? Ahead of that, Powell testifies on Tuesday (14:00 GMT) Fed still not convinced After several...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0813; (P) 1.0827; (R1) 1.0854; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside, as rise from 1.0665 is in progress for retesting 1.0915 resistance. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915 from 1.0665 at 1.0919 next....
Pound Gains on Hawkish BoE Remarks; Euro Regains Lost Ground
Sterling strengthened broadly today, support by comments from Jonathan Haskel, a known hawk on BoE’s MPC. Haskel indicated his preference to maintain interest rates until there is clear evidence that inflationary pressures have subsided sustainably. This stance has...
USD/JPY: Soft US Data Offers a Potential Relief Rally for JPY
Lacklustre US non-farm payrolls & ISM Services PMI for June has led to a further drop in US Treasury yields. Both the 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries/JGBs yield premiums have shrunk to a 5-month low. A lower positive carry using JPY as a funded currency and...
ECB’s Knot rules out July rate cut
ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot has indicated there is no case for another rate cut in July. In an interview with Handelsblatt, Knot stated, “I don’t see a case for another rate cut in July.” He emphasized that the next ECB meeting that will consider rate...
AUD/USD Hits Six-Month High Amid RBA Rate Hike Speculations
The AUD/USD pair reached a six-month high of 0.6752, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains. The currency’s strength is largely driven by market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might diverge from the global trend of lowering interest rates,...
BoE’s Haskel advocates holding rates amid tight labor market
BoE MPC member Jonathan Haskel highlighted in a speech that assuming no further shocks, inflation will depend on the “interaction of a tight labour market and second-round effects as previous inflation works its way through the wage-price system.” Haskel emphasized...
GBP/USD Price Outlook: Cable Holds the High Ground, Multi-Month Resistance Up Ahead
GBP/USD is facing a key multi-month resistance level at 1.2850 after a positive run. The outcome of US inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony could significantly impact the GBP/USD exchange rate. A break above 1.2850 might require a catalyst, like a...
BoJ highlights spread of big firm wage hikes to smaller companies
In the Regional Economic Report, BoJ maintained its economic assessment for five out of Japan’s nine regions, while upgrading two and downgrading two. Eight regions, with the exception of Hokuriku, indicated that their economies had been recovering moderately, picking...
EUR/USD Outlook: Bullish Bias Above Daily Cloud
EURUSD opened with gap-lower on Monday but dip was short-lived and larger bulls regained control and pushed the price towards last Friday’s new multi-week high (1.0842). Today’s dip was contained by psychological 1.0800 support (also the top of rising hourly cloud)...
Eurozone Sentix drops sharply to -7.3 on rising political and economic uncertainties
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence dropped sharply in July, falling from 0.3 to -7.3, significantly worse than the expected 0.0. This decline ends a series of eight consecutive rises and marks a severe setback. Current Situation Index also declined from -9.0 to...
Crypto: Bears Trying to Break the Neck of Bull Trend
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market is moving up and down, experiencing increased volatility with swings between 2.0 and 2.15 trillion. These are very intense swings, reflecting the massive amounts of capital flowing through the market. The Cryptocurrency Fear...
China’s Problems Could Cloud RBA’s Hawkish Intentions
China to gain more airtime this week The ailing housing sector and the bond rally in focus RBA remains hawkish, but consumer appetite is critical Aussie benefits from dollar weakness Market’s focus could turn to China this week The post non-farm payrolls week tends to...
FX option expiries for 8 July 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0785 level. It isn't one that offers much technical significance but could act alongside the key daily moving averages at 1.0794-97 in locking any downside price action in the...
Euro Edges Down Following Left-Wing Triumph in French Elections
Euro dips mildly a in Asian session after French parliamentary elections on Sunday delivered unexpected results. The markets had anticipated a challenging outcome for centrist President Emmanuel Macron, including a hung parliament. Yet, the outcome was particularly...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s up trend continued last week and hit as high as 206.42. Initial bias is on the upside this week for further rally. Firm break of 100% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 206.56 will target 138.2% projection at 210.17. On the downside, below 204.97...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation above 1.5996 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first, but outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6211 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.5996 will target 100% projection...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8498 last week, but failed to break through 55 D EMA (now at 0.8500) and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 0.8501) will extend the rise from 0.8396 short term...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s rally was rejected by near term falling channel last week and reversed from there. Immediate focus is now on 0.8956 support this week. Firm break there will argue that rebound from 0.8825 has completed and bring retest of this low. On the upside, break of...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY edged higher to 161.94 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 161.94 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. Nevertheless, break...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s strong rebound last week suggests that pull back from 1.0915 has completed at 1.0665 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.0915 resistance. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915 from 1.0665 at 1.0919 next. On...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: The US is Not Very Good, Europe is Not Very Bad On Friday, June 5, the Dollar Index (DXY) hit a three-week low, while the euro showed its largest weekly gain against the dollar in a year. This was due to the US not performing as well as expected and Europe...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s strong rebound last week suggests that corrective pullback from 1.2859 has completed at 1.2612 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.2859 first. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1.2298 and target 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s rebound from 0.9476 extended to as high as 0.9754 last week and turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first for consolidations. Deeper retreat might be seen but further rise is in favor as long as 0.9639 support holds. Above...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6361 resumed by breaking through 0.6713 resistance last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at 0.6837. On the downside, below 0.6699 minor support will turn intraday...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD fell to 1.3602 last week but recovered ahead of 1.3589 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Corrective pattern from 1.3845 could still extend. Break of 1.3589 will target 100% projection of 1.3845 to 1.3589 from 1.3790 at 1.3534. Strong...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s up trend continued to 174.50 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week for some more consolidations first. On the upside, firm break of 174.50 will target 138.2% projection of 164.01 to 170.87 from 167.52 at 177.00. On the...
Pound Outshines as Dollar Sinks, Yen Stabilizing
The past week marked a significant downturn for Dollar, which found itself at the bottom of the currency performance chart. A slew of unfavorable economic reports has highlighted the tangible effects of sustained high interest rates on the American economy, fostering...
Softer U.S. Inflation Expected in June Ahead of Another Hold from Fed
June’s consumer price index data for the U.S. will be key in revealing whether the resurgence in inflation is over or if softer readings in April and May were just a short reprieve. On Thursday, we expect headline CPI growth to slow to 3.1% in June, down from 3.3% in...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Because I Was Inverted
Summary United States: No Fireworks from the June Jobs Report It was a holiday-shortened week for many, but the economic data did not take a break. Nonfarm payrolls increased 206K in June; yet, downward revisions to the prior two months took much of the shine away...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Gearing Down
U.S. Highlights This week’s data all flashed signs of an economy slowly gearing down. Both ISM indicators signaled contraction, while revisions to prior month’s payrolls gains and an uptick in the unemployment rate show the labor market continues to cool. All eyes...
The Week Ahead – Will US Inflation Data Derail Market Optimism?
Soft US economic data, including lower-than-expected job growth, has increased market expectations for a September rate cut. The week ahead features important data releases, including US inflation figures and Chinese inflation data. US Inflation holds the key to a...
Summary 7/8 – 7/12
Monday, Jul 8, 2024 Tuesday, Jul 9, 2024 Wednesday, Jul 10, 2024 Thursday, Jul 11, 2024 Friday, Jul 12, 2024 The post Summary 7/8 – 7/12 appeared first on Action Forex.
Eurozone retail sales rises 0.1% mom in May, EU up 0.1% mom too
Eurozone retail sales volume rose 0.1% mom in May, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Sales volume, increased by 0.7% mom for food, drinks, tobacco, and by 0.4% mom for automotive fuel in specialized stores. Sales volume fell -0.2% mom for non-food products (except...
US NFP rises 206k in Jun, but May and Apr revised sharply lower
US Non-Farm Payroll employment increased by 206k in June, above expectation of 180k. Growth was slightly lower than average monthly gain of 220k over the prior 12 months. However, prior month’s growth was revised sharply lower from 272k to 218k. April’s figure was...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0791; (P) 1.0804; (R1) 1.0825; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 1.0665 is in progress to 1.0915 resistance first. Firm break there will resume whole rebound from 1.0601. Nevertheless, on the downside,...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2744; (P) 1.2756; (R1) 1.2772; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 1.2612 is in progress for retesting 1.2859 high. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.2298. On the downside, though, below...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8983; (P) 0.9012; (R1) 0.9031; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral first as consolidation from 0.9049 is extending. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8956 support holds. Above 0.9049 will affirm the case that corrective fall...
Canada’s Job Market Softens Further in June
Canadian employment was essentially unchanged in June (-1.6k), disappointing expectations for a modest 25k gain. Job losses were once again in full-time positions (-3.4k), while part-time jobs rose only slightly (1.9k). As a result, the unemployment rate rose two...
US: Payroll Gains Decelerate in June, While Unemployment Rate Ticks up to 4.1%
Non-farm employment increased by 206k in June, slightly above market expectations for a gain of 190k. However, job gains for the prior two months were revised materially lower by roughly 111k jobs. Private payrolls rose 136k, with most of the gains concentrated in...
Week Ahead – Round Two of French Elections, Powell Testimony and US CPI
French parties race to block Le Pen’s RN Powell testifies before Senate Banking Committee US CPI data to shake Fed rate cut bets RBNZ to leave OCR untouched, focus on language Euro traders keep gaze locked on French election Traders will be sitting on the edge of...
Spotlight on Kiwi as RBNZ Decides on Rates Next Week
Interest rates expected to hold stable at a 15-year high of 5.5% NZ inflation is still problematic; will the RBNZ talk about a rate hike again? NZDUSD bulls have some work to do; must surpass 0.6188-0.6200 to gain more fuel Kiwi has poor performance The New Zealand...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Payrolls have arrived. Net job creation in the US amounted to 206k in June. While slightly topping the 190k estimate, it came with a significant downward revision for the previous two months (-111k). In addition, about a third of June’s jobs came on the...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.92; (P) 161.30; (R1) 161.66; More… Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 160.25 minor support holds. Break of 161.94 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection...
NFP Revisions Hits Dollar; But September Fed Cut Still Uncertain
Dollar weakened broadly after the release of the US Non-Farm Payroll report, though the initial selloff was far from decisive. June’s employment data showcased a robust labor market with near-average job and solid earnings growth , coupled with just a slight uptick in...
Canada’s employment falls -1.4k in Jun, unemployment rate rises further to 6.4%
Canada’s employment contracted -1.4k in June, much worse than expectation of 25.0k growth. Unemployment rate rose from 6.2% to 6.4%, above expectation of 6.3%. It has now risen 1.3% since April 2023. Employment rate fell -0.2% to 61.1%. Total hours worked were down...
XAU/USD Outlook: Gold Price Remains at the Front Foot Ahead of US NFP Report
Gold price rose further on Friday morning and pressuring important technical barriers ahead of release of key US NFP report. The metal rose around 1.7% for the week so far, benefiting from weaker dollar on soft US macroeconomic data, which point to a slowing US...
Pound About to Change Its Course
2024 has every chance of being the biggest election year, with well over half of the world’s population going to the polls. The next chapter in this saga is today, with the announcement of the results of the UK general elections. The results were generally in line...
UK Election: Labour Wins in a Landslide
The UK national election on Thursday propelled the Labour Party to a sweeping victory and Labour leader Keir Starmer will become the next Prime Minister. In the six-week election campaign of the election, Labour had a massive lead in the polls and there was no doubt...
Historic French Vote Could Propel Le Pen to Power
French election: Will the far-right win a majority? French voters will head to the polls on Sunday, July 7 for round two of the parliamentary elections. In the first round, Mary Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party (RN) made big gains and won 33% of the vote....
Terrifying Crypto Sell-off – Action Forex
Market picture The crypto market cap has fallen back below $2 trillion, accelerating its decline and losing over 8%, while many altcoins have suffered double-digit losses within the last 24 hours. Bitcoin pulled back to $54.7K, losing around 6.5% since the start of...
Gold Maintains Upward Trend as Market Anticipates US Jobs Data
Gold prices have continued their ascent, with a troy ounce of the precious metal reaching USD 2363. This rise is primarily fuelled by anticipated US employment data for June, which could significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions. Recent US economic...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 173.97; (P) 174.21; (R1) 174.61; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat, and some consolidations would be seen below 174.50. Further rally is expected as long as 170.87 resistance turned support holds, in case of...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 205.24; (P) 205.82; (R1) 206.36; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen below 206.15. Further rise is expected as long as 200.72 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 100%...
FX option expiries for 5 July 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD and a rather large one at that at the 1.0800 mark. However, the US holiday yesterday and dollar sluggishness on the week has seen price action move beyond the range of what I would've...
Dollar Under Pressure Ahead of NFP Data; Sterling Strengthens with Labour Victory
Dollar’s broad-based decline continues in Asian session today as market attention shifts to the highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payroll data. Traders are eager to see a weak report on job and wage growth to reinforce the expectation that the Fed will initiate a rate...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 204.90; (P) 205.54; (R1) 206.68; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Firm break of 100% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 206.56 will target 138.2% projection at 210.17. On the downside, below 204.71...
Bitcoin More Likely to Fall to $51.5K Than Rise to $65.8K
Market picture The crypto market plunged 3.6% in 24 hours to $2.17 trillion, its lowest level since late February. Triggered stop orders in this morning’s thinly liquid market added to the magnitude of the decline, sending Bitcoin briefly below $57.7K and Ethereum to...
Bitcoin Falls Below $60k to a Two-Month Low
Upon analysing the long-term BTC/USD chart on 16 May, we constructed a “roadmap” for Bitcoin’s price, which appeared as an expanding fan and consisted of a median with support levels below it and resistance levels above it. Analysing the BTC/USD chart last time on 28...
USD/CAD Breaks Key Support – Action Forex
On 25 June, we noted that the USD/CAD price had approached a crucial support level—the lower boundary of a converging triangle, which indicated a relative balance of supply and demand in the market during May. Since then, the price has bounced twice from this level...
Brent Crude – Oil Runs into Resistance as EIA Inventories Fall
Brent Crude oil prices rose on Wednesday due to a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories. The market anticipates further inventory reduction, leading to potential support for prices in Q4. Technical analysis suggests bullish continuation, with a key...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets With US markets closed in observance of the 4th of July holiday; European based investors couldn’t do much but look forward and count down. Counting down to an almost certain outcome of the UK elections, to President Biden announcing to step out of the...
USDCAD Slides Towards the Lower Bound of a Range
USDCAD oscillates within a sideways range Momentum starts shifting negative A break below 1.3590 could turn the picture negative A move above 1.3750 could invite more bulls USDCAD came under selling interest this week, after hitting resistance near the 1.3750 zone,...
Crude Oil Moved Up But Looks Vulnerable
Crude oil inventories in US commercial storage fell by 12.2 million barrels last week, marking the sharpest decline since last July. The decrease is attributed to preparations for the start of the US driving season. Not only was the change significant, but it was also...
Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Set for Steady Gains
AUD/USD is correcting gains from the 0.6735 zone. NZD/USD is showing positive signs and might attempt a fresh increase above 0.6120. Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar started a downside correction from 0.6735 against the US...
Dollar’s Decline Slows as Selling Momentum Eases
Dollar remains subdued today, but selling momentum has turned weak. With US markets closed for the holiday, trading activity is expected to be light. Meanwhile, traders are also gearing up for tomorrow’s key US non-farm payroll data, which will be crucial. Further...
ECB divided over rate cut at June meeting
Accounts from ECB’s June meeting reveal that “almost all members” supported the 25bps rate cut. However, there was a significant “dissenting view”, arguing that recent data and ongoing inflationary risks “did not support the case for a rate cut”. The dissenters...
(ECB) Monetary policy accounts – Action Forex
Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 5-6 June 2024 4 July 2024 1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options Financial market...
EURUSD Holds Above 200-Period SMA
EURUSD continues the rebound off 1.0670 Price is bullish in near term Momentum oscillators are mixed EURUSD is finding strong support at the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) in the 4-hour chart near 1.0785. Also, the pair has been holding in an upside tendency...
WTI Crude Oil Moves Sideways in the Very Short-term
WTI crude oil still above SMAs RSI and MACD indicate weakening momentum WTI crude oil futures are continuing to bounce off the 72.45 support level, remaining in an upside mood, but the current very short-term view is neutral. The price stands above the 81.90 support...
ECB’s Lane Expects wage growth normalization in 2025
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, speaking in Italy today, expressed optimism that wage growth will normalize by 2025, based on surveys and forward-looking indicators among companies. “The reason why we think inflation will come down next year is that this is the last...
EUR/USD Outlook: Remains Constructive But Formation of Bull-Trap Warns
EURUSD remains at the front foot in early Thursday’s trading and holding under new three-week high (Wednesday’s spike at 1.0816). Bulls probe again through cracked daily Kijun-sen (1.0791) and look for retest of daily cloud top (1.0808). Cloud top was dented on...
NZD/USD Continues to Climb Amidst USD Weakness
The NZD/USD pair has extended its upward movement into a third session, reaching 0.6106 amid growing weaknesses in the US dollar. Negative shifts in US economic indicators, particularly June’s disappointing private sector employment data from ADP and uncertain PMI...
US DJIA: UST Yield Curve Un-inversion May Help the Laggard to Catch Up
Yesterday’s lacklustre US ISM services PMI and ADP employment data for June increases the odds of a further US Treasury yield curve un-inversion. A further un-inversion above -0.08% on the US Treasury yield spread between 10-year & 2-year may trigger a bull...
UK PMI construction falls to 52.2, slowing growth amid election uncertainty
UK PMI Construction fell to 52.2 in June, down from 54.7 in May, and below the expected 54.0. S&P Global highlighted the sharpest rise in employment in ten months, while inflationary pressures remained subdued. Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global...
AUDUSD Challenges Upper Limit of Its Range
AUDUSD attempts to break above sideways structure Oscillators are heavily tilted to the bullish side AUDUSD has been trading sideways for more than a month now, unable to adopt a clear directional impetus. However, in the last two sessions, the bulls have been testing...
FX option expiries for 4 July 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for NZD/USD at the 0.6130 level. It isn't one that holds any technical significance but could play a role in keeping a lid on price action amid holiday-thin trading today. The overnight...
Dollar Down on Fed Cut Bets, Eyes on Swiss CPI
Dollar faced significant selloff overnight as market participants ramped up bets on a September rate cut by Fed. This shift in sentiment propelled S&P 500 and NASDAQ to record highs too. However, the greenback managed to stabilize in Asian session as the forex...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2638; (P) 1.2663; (R1) 1.2710; More… GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.2612 resumes today and the break of 1.2705 resistance suggests that pull back from 1.2859 has completed. More importantly, rise from 1.2298 is not over. Intraday bias is back on the...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0721; (P) 1.0735; (R1) 1.0760; More…. EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0665 resumed by breaking 1.0775 minor resistance today. Current development suggests that pull back from 1.0915 has completed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.0915 resistance...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9026; (P) 0.9038; (R1) 0.9052; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first with current retreat. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8956 support holds. Above 0.9049 will affirm the case that corrective fall from 0.9223 has...
US ISM services falls sharply to 48.8, lowest in four years
US ISM Services PMI fell sharply from 53.8 to 48.8 in June, well below expectation of 52.5. That’s also the worst reading in four years. Looking at some details, business activity/production fell sharply from 61.2 to 49.6. New orders fell from 54.1 to 47.3. Employment...
Dollar Index Outlook: Dollar Extends Weakness after Downbeat ADP Data
The dollar index fell to one week low on Thursday, extending weakness into second consecutive day, after being pressured by dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell, while weaker than expected ADP private sector payrolls report further soured the sentiment. Fresh...
ISM Shows Services Sector Shrinks in June
The ISM Services index tumbled to 48.8 in June from 53.8 in May, well short of the 52.7 consensus expectation. Only eight of 18 industries reported growth for the month – down from 13 in May. The business activity sub-index and new orders signaled shrinking activity,...
Investors Await NFP to Validate Their Fed Rate Cut Bets
Investors expect two rate cuts, even though Fed signals one Recent data corroborates investors’ take Nonfarm payrolls waited for more confirmation The report comes out on Friday, at 12:30 GMT Fed appears hawkish, but data paint a different picture At its latest...
Weak Data Hammers USD – Action Forex
The US private sector created 150K jobs in June, according to fresh ADP estimates. This is slightly weaker than expected and the lowest growth since January. Once again, the leisure sector (+63K) led the growth. Construction stands out, with net job growth of 27K for...
Could Post-UK Elections Market Moves Resemble 1997 and 2010?
Thursday’s UK elections expected to bring political change Similar developments in both 1997 and 2010 weighed on the pound History points to a significant easing in pound volatility across the board Recent FTSE 100 performance matches the 2015 pre-election moves...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets European markets today enjoyed some kind of a risk-on catch up move. A record close of the US S&P 500 above the 5500 mark yesterday apparently also inspired European investors (Eurostoxx 50 +1.3%). On French/intra-EMU bond markets, the risk premia also...
AUD/USD Daily Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6644; (P) 0.6657; (R1) 0.6681; More... AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6361 finally resumed by breaking through 0.6713 resistance and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.22; (P) 161.52; (R1) 161.76; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. On the downside, below 160.95 minor support will turn...
Dollar Weakens Against European Majors Ahead of Key Economic and Political Events
Dollar weakens notably against European majors in early US session, partially due to worse-than-expected ADP private job data. However, the primary reason seems to be traders becoming cautious ahead of several key events this week, including UK general elections, US...
US jobless claims rises to 238k vs exp 235k
US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 238k in the week ending June 29, slightly above expectation of 235k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2k to 239k. Continuing claims rose 26k to 1858k in the week ending June 22, highest since November 27, 2021....
AUD/USD Shrugs as Australian Retail Sales Jump
The Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6674 in the European session, up 0.11% on the day. Australian retail sales climb 0.6% Australian consumers have been counting their pennies and reducing discretionary spending. Consumers are...
Gold Retains Positive Attitude – Action Forex
Gold picks up steam towards a key resistance region ahead of US Independence day Short-term bias is positive, but an extension above 2,352 is necessary ISM services PMI, ADP employment, FOMC meeting minutes on the agenda Gold bulls returned with stronger positive...
UK PMI services finalized at 52.1, growth slows amid election uncertainty
UK PMI Services index was finalized at 52.1 in June, down from May’s 52.9, marking the slowest growth rate since November of last year. PMI Composite also fell to 52.3, from the previous month’s 53.0, a six-month low. Joe Hayes, Principal Economist at S&P Global...
Crypto Stays Under Pressure – Action Forex
Market picture The pressure on the crypto has been more sustained than on the stocks. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto cap has fallen by 2.6%, with most of the downward momentum starting in the US session. The stock market, on the other hand, was supported by...
Eurozone PPI falls -0.2% mom, -4.2% yoy in May
Eurozone PPI fell -0.2% mom, -4.2% yoy in May, versus expectation of 0.0% mom, -4.1% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices increased by 0.1% for intermediate goods, 0.1% for capital goods, and 0.1% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices decreased by -1.1% for...
AUD/USD Sees Uptick Amidst Mixed Sentiment
AUD/USD has climbed to 0.6676 yet remains in a “sideways” pattern, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum in the market. The Australian dollar’s appreciation is linked to a softening in the US dollar’s stance, influenced by remarks from Federal Reserve Chair...
XAU/USD outlook: Gold Price Rises Ahead of Key Economic Data But Still Holding Within Broader Range
Gold price rose during early trading on Wednesday, after being stuck within a narrow congestion in past three days. Fresh strength hit the highest in almost two weeks, though the wider picture shows the price moving within larger range ($2368/$2286) for the past...
Gold Price Prospects for H2
As shown by the daily XAU/USD chart: → Since November 2022, the price has been moving in an upward channel, marked in orange; → Since the start of 2024, the price has risen by approximately 12.5%. What are the gold price forecasts for the end of 2024? According to...
FX option expiries for 3 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered between 1.0700 through to 1.0800, with another large one sandwiching that at 1.0750. As such, price action is likely to keep more muted once again...
Yen Falls Again: How Much Lower Could It Go?
Yen’s renewed selloff captured some attention in the otherwise subdued Asian session today. With no new comments from Japanese authorities, market participants are left to speculate on when and where the next intervention might occur. A pivotal moment on the horizon...
UK 100 Index Experiences Pre-election Decline
The UK 100 stock index (cash) continues to suffer for the sixth consecutive trading day, extending its downleg aggressively to the critical support zone of 8,110 on Tuesday ahead of the election day on July 4.The index could not mark a new higher high above the key...
Australian Dollar Eyes Retail Sales
The Australian dollar has posted slight losses on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6649 in the European session, down 0.15% on the day. Australian retail sales expected to improve Australian consumers have been in frugal mood and have reduced their discretionary...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2622; (P) 1.2661; (R1) 1.2690; More… GBP/USD recovered ahead of 1.2612 support as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.2705 resistance will argue that pull back from 1.2859 has...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0715; (P) 1.0745; (R1) 1.0771; More…. Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 55 D EMA will argue that pull back from 1.0915 has completed. Further rise should be seen back to 1.0915...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8986; (P) 0.9016; (R1) 0.9057; More… No change in USD/CHF’s outlook and intraday bias remains on the upside. Fall from 0.9223 might have completed as a three-wave corrective move to 0.8825. Sustained trading above the near term falling channel...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.90; (P) 161.31; (R1) 161.89; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. On the downside, below 160.25 minor support will...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The pace of Eurozone inflation remained steady at 0.2% M/M in June. The outcome was in line with consensus as could be expected following earlier national prints. The Y/Y-figure slowed from 2.8% to 2.5%. Core inflation rose somewhat faster (0.3% M/M), but this...
WTI Oil Outlook: Price Rises Above $84 for the First Time in Over Two Months
WTI oil price rose to nine-week high on Tuesday, in extension of strong Monday’s strong rally (up almost 2.5% for the day). Increased demand due to summer driving season and persisting supply fears on heated geopolitical situation inflate oil price, which rose above...
Eurozone: Inflation Deceleration Stalled – Action Forex
According to the Eurostat Flash estimate, the euro area CPI stood at 2.5% y/y, hovering between 2.4% and 2.6% for the past five months. There has been no apparent slowing since November when the rate first touched 2.4%. Core CPI maintained a 2.9% y/y in May and June...
XTIUSD: Strengthened and Reaching Supply Zone
Bearish Scenario: Sell below 83.63 (if a PAR* forms) with TP1: 83.00, 82.31, 82.11, and 81.70 in extension with an S.L. above 84.00 or at least 1% of account capital. Bullish Scenario after a Pullback to Demand Zone: Wait for a decline towards 82.00 and the formation...
Fed’s Powell: We’re getting back on disinflation path
At the ECB forum, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the “quite a big of progress” made in reducing inflation toward 2% target. He also acknowledged the recent inflation readings, stating, “The last reading and the one before it, to a lesser extent, suggest that we...
GBPCAD Uptrend Intact After Latest Correction
GBPCAD bounces off uptrend line But strength of rebound is in question 20-day SMA is nearest challenge for the bulls GBPCAD has rebounded back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) after a 2% correction in June took the price below it towards the upper...
Dollar Rises on Other Currencies’ Problems
The US dollar has been settling near two-month highs since late last week, but this is a pick of the best among the worst. Expectations for the Fed’s key year-end rate have changed little over the past roughly three weeks. Still, the dollar’s main competitors have...
Dollar Struggles to Keep Momentum in Indecisive Markets
In the forex market, clear weakness of Yen, Swiss Franc, and Kiwi contrasts with a broader sense of indecision elsewhere. Dollar’s rally attempt quickly lost momentum as it struggled to break through near-term resistance levels against both the Euro and Sterling....
Stocks Held Back Crypto Gains
Market picture The crypto market retreated by 0.6% in 24 hours to a total cap of $2.31 trillion. The cautious mood can be attributed to a downward move in US and European stock markets and the momentum of a stronger dollar. However, the dynamics of coins are not...
EUR/USD: Euro Bulls Should Not be Complacent after French Election
Sovereign credit risk remains elevated in France despite yesterday’s rallies seen in the EUR/USD, CAC 40 & DAX ex-post first round of the French legislative election. Speculative net capital outflows & bearish sentiment in CAC 40 & DAX may trigger a...
Fed’s Goolsbee suggests rate cuts if inflation declines further
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has suggested that Fed should consider cutting interest rates if inflation continues its downward trajectory towards the 2% target. He emphasized the importance of adjusting monetary policy to align with changing inflation...
EURJPY Sails in Uncharted Waters
EURJPY advances above 32-year high Fears of a Japanese intervention increase Oscillators point to overbought conditions EURJPY has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year, storming to consecutive multi-year highs. Despite a strong pullback following a...
EUR/USD Struggles to Maintain Gains Amid Mixed Economic Signals
The EUR/USD pair experienced a noticeable uptick yesterday, but failed to sustain its peak, settling at 1.0732 today. Early gains were buoyed by the initial outcomes from France’s parliamentary elections, which did not reflect the worst-case scenario, sparking a...
Silver Price Analysis: Awaiting Powell’s Comments
Today, at 16:30 GMT+3, the Federal Reserve Chairman is scheduled to speak. Market participants are looking for more clarity on the Fed’s plans regarding interest rate cuts following the release of inflation data last Friday. According to Trading Economics, Fed...
Eurozone CPI slowed to 2.5% in Jun, but core unchanged at 2.9%
Eurozone CPI slowed from 2.6% yoy to 2.5% yoy in June, matched expectations. CPI core (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was unchanged at 2.9% yoy, above expectation of 2.8% yoy. Looking at the main components, services is expected to have the highest annual...
Pound and Euro Test Key Support Levels: Is a Breakout Possible?
European currencies are showing surprising resilience. Despite the general strengthening of the dollar and strong macroeconomic data from the US, EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue to trade above strategically important levels: EUR/USD has been testing 1.0660 for over three...
FX option expiries for 2 July 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of for today. However, just be wary that there are some big ones layered for EUR/USD especially between 1.0700 to 1.0800 during the week. There will also be ones for Friday as outlined here. That is likely to lock price...
Dollar Rallies as Treasury Yields Surge With Trump’s Election Prospects
Dollar surged across the board overnight and stayed firm in Asian session, fueled by the strong rally in benchmark US Treasury yields. This rally is partly attributed to rising expectations of a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming presidential election. Analysts...
Euro Rises Despite France’s Vote for the Right
The euro has started the week with strong gains. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0756 in the European session, up 0.41% on the day at the time of writing. The euro is at its highest level since June 14. Macron takes a drubbing in round one France went to the polls on Sunday,...
GBP/JPY Outlook: Hits New Multi-Year High
GBPJPY remains in an unobstructed uptrend and hit new multi-year high (the highest since 2008) in early Monday. The cross extends steep ascend into eleventh straight day, after registering the sixth consecutive monthly gain in June. Yen weakened further against all...
US ISM manufacturing falls to 48.5, prices down to 52.1
US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.7 to 48.5 in June, missed expectation of 49.3. That’s the third month of contraction reading. Looking at some details, new orders rose from 45.4 to 49.3. Production fell from 50.2 to 48.5. Employment fell from 51.1. to 49.3....
USD/JPY Outlook: Hits New Multi-Decade High Despite Persisting Intervention Threats
USDJPY rose further on Monday, signaling continuation after bulls paused for consolidation on Thu/Fri. Although traders remain cautious over looming intervention, after Japanese authorities reiterated their stance of intervening again to support weakening yen, bulls...
Gold Price Update: XAU/USD Rises as Search for Catalyst Rumbles On
Gold rises as a weaker US Dollar and uncertainty around monetary policy continues. ISM data later today before all attention turns to US jobs data later in the week. Trendline break and price action hint at at a potential rise toward the $2370 resistance handle....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2623; (P) 1.2642; (R1) 1.2665; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.2702 resistance will argue that pull back from 1.2859 has completed, and bring retest of this high instead. Nevertheless,...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8971; (P) 0.8990; (R1) 0.9007; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point, for channel resistance (now at 0.9034). Fall from 0.9223 might have completed as a three-wave corrective move to 0.8825. Firm break of channel...
USD/JPY Rises Up After GDP Downgrade
The Japanese yen has dropped below the 161 line on Monday. The yen is trading at 161.39 early in the North American session, down 0.35% on the day. Japan’s GDP revised sharply lower Japan revised its first-quarter GDP report to -2.9%, y/y, sharply lower than the...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National scored broadly as expected in the first round of French parliamentary elections. They won the ballot with around 33% of the vote, ahead of the left front (28%) and Macron’s alliance (21%). In 485 out of 577 districts, the...
June ISM: Activity Still Soft, but Prices Cooling
Summary Manufacturing activity remained in contraction territory in June, but in a sign of moderating inflation pressure, the prices paid component fell 4.9 points. New orders rose more than any other component but remains in contraction. Prices Cool The ISM...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.36; (P) 160.82; (R1) 161.37; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with break of 161.27 temporary top. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. On the downside, below 160.25 minor...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0692; (P) 1.0708; (R1) 1.0731; More…. EUR/USD edged higher to 1.0775 earlier today but failed to break through 55 D EMA (now at 1.0773) and retreated. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 55 D EMA will argue that pull...
Euro Rebound Stalls as Sterling and Dollar Mount a Comeback
Euro has seen a notable rebound as the new week commenced, though the lack of follow-through buying momentum is evident. The initial results from French parliamentary elections were not as dire as investors had feared. The far-right National Rally’s victory was not as...
EUR/USD Outlook: Post-French Election Rally So Far Capped by Thickening Daily Cloud
EURUSD opened with gap-higher and rose to three-week high in early European trading on Monday, lifted by results of the first round French parliamentary election. Rally was capped by the base of thickening daily cloud, following last week’s cloud twist, with...
Instrument of the Week (July 1—5): USDCHF Review!
The USDCHF pair, commonly called the “Swissie,” represents the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Swiss Franc, providing insights into the economic dynamics between the United States and Switzerland. The US Dollar is influenced by the broader economic trends...
EURUSD Gaps Higher Over Potential French Hung Parliament
EURUSD surges after French far-right party wins first race with weaker majority Bullish bias expected to come above 1.0788; sellers could take control below 1.0670 EURUSD opened with a positive gap on Monday after Le Pen’s far right party dominated the first round of...
Japanese Yen Faces Further Depreciation Amid Rate Differentials
The USD/JPY pair continues to escalate, currently positioned at 160.88, nearing the 37-year peak of 161.27 achieved last Friday. Early today, the yen temporarily strengthened following Japan’s Q2 Tankan survey results, which indicated a slight improvement in...
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9607; (P) 0.9624; (R1) 0.9644; More…. Immediate focus is now on 0.9683 as EUR/CHF extended the rebound from 0.9476. Decisive break there will argue that Fall from 0.9928 has completed, probably as a correction. Intraday bias will be back on the...
Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 45.8, recovery pushed to late summer
Eurozone manufacturing PMI for June was finalized at 45.8, down from May’s 47.3, signaling continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. This decline indicates ongoing challenges for manufacturers, with only Italy showing some improvement among the member...
UK’s PMI manufacturing finalized at 50.9, renewed cost pressures despite growth
UK’s PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 50.9 in June, slightly down from May’s 22-month high of 51.2. This marks a continued period of growth for the sector, but with some emerging concerns. Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented, “The...
EUR/USD Rate Rises After First Round of Voting in France
According to Reuters, exit polls show that Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, the National Rally (RN), won the first round of parliamentary elections in France on Sunday. The financial market reacted to this with a rise in the euro’s exchange rate against other...
Gold Battles with Descending Trendline
Gold trades back and forth in the past few sessions Price fails to claim 50-day SMA and restrictive trendline Momentum indicators are neutral-to-bullish Gold has been under pressure lately following its break below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Although the...
FX option expiries for 1 July 10am New York cut
There is just one on the board to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The size of the expiry is a big one so that could keep a floor under the pair in terms of price action for the session ahead.There won't be much on the...
Euro Rebounds on French Election Relief; Market Eyes Central Bank Minutes and Key Data
Euro is staging a solid rebound today, with investors feeling somewhat reassured by the preliminary results of French parliamentary elections. While the far-right National Rally made significant gains with approximately 34% of votes in the first round, this is...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
While EUR/CHF’s recovery from 0.9476 extended higher last week, outlook stays bearish with 0.9683 resistance intact. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 0.9560 minor support will suggest that the rebound has completed and bring retest...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD edged lower to 1.5996 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and outlook stays bearish as long as 1.6211 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.5996 will target 100% projection of 1.6679 to...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s recovery from 0.8396 continued last week but upside remains capped below by 0.8482 support turned resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week and outlook remains bearish bearish. On the downside, below 0.8430 support will turn bias back to the downside...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s up trend continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 206.56 next. On the downside, below 202.41 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD rebounded after dipping to 1.3626, but failed to extend gain after hitting 1.3733. Overall, consolidation pattern from 1.3845 is extending. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. While deeper fall could be seen, downside should be contained by 1.3589...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD extended consolidation from 0.6713 last week and outlook remains unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s stronger than expected rebound argues that fall from 0.9223 might have completed as a three-wave corrective move to 0.8825. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for channel resistance (now at 0.9037). Firm break there will target 0.9157 resistance next. On...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s break of 160.20 resistance last week confirmed long term up trend resumption. But as a temporary top was formed at 161.27, initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Downside should be contained by 158.71 support to bring another rally. Break...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s consolidation form 1.0667 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further fall is expected with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Firm...
Yen Hits Multi-Decade Lows, Euro Bounces Back, Dollar Remains Indecisive
Yen remained in the spotlight last week, dominating headlines even as some significant global inflation data also moved markets. The Japanese currency continued its downtrend, reaching multi-decade lows. Despite the prolonged decline, Japanese authorities refrained...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s fall from 1.2859 tied to continued last week but failed to sustain below 1.2633 resistance turned support. Still, further decline is expected as long as 1.2702 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 1.2633 resistance turned support will argue that whole...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s break of 171.58 resistance last week confirmed up trend resumption. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 164.01 to 170.87 from 167.52 at 174.38. On the downside, below 171.37 minor support will turn intraday bias...
Labour Markets in Canada and the U.S. to Show Key Signs of Weakness
Central banks in Canada and the United States will be closely watching labour market data on Friday after May inflation numbers sent some mixed signals, broadly surprising to the upside in Canada and the downside in the U.S. The tick-up in Canadian inflation in May...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Yen Reaches Its Weakest Level Against the Greenback since 1986
Summary United States: It May Be Hot Outside, but Inflation Is Finally Cooling According to the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, core inflation cooled to its softest pace in more than three years in May against a backdrop of measured consumer spending and...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Services Spending and Prices Starting to Settle
U.S. Highlights Headline PCE inflation came in flat for the month of May and core PCE inflation eased. Personal income posted a strong gain last month, while spending growth was more moderate, leading to an uptick in the savings rate. The heat in the economy still...
Markets Weekly Outlook: French, UK Elections in Focus Followed by NFP Data
Despite a decline in core PCE numbers, hawkish comments from Fed policymakers cast doubt on a September rate cut. The first half of 2024 saw a widening gap between growth and value stocks, with the former outperforming the S&P 500. Concerns over central bank...
July seasonals: The S&P 500 has rallied in July for eight straight years
When I look at the July seasonals, there isn't much in the FX market. The patterns are minor and the moves small as the summer complacency sets in.One thing stands out though: US equities.The S&P 500 has climbed for eight straight years in July with an average...
Summary 7/1 – 7/5
Monday, Jul 1, 2024 Tuesday, Jul 2, 2024 Wednesday, Jul 3, 2024 Thursday, Jul 4, 2024 Friday, Jul 5, 2024 The post Summary 7/1 – 7/5 appeared first on Action Forex.
US PCE core inflation slows to 2.6% as expected in May
In May, US PCE price index was flat mom, matched expectations. PCE core price index (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1% mom. Both matched expectations. Prices for goods fell -0.4% mom while prices for services rose 0.2% mom. Food prices rose 0.1% mom while energy...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.43; (P) 160.63; (R1) 160.98; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again with current retreat. Some consolidations could be seen first and deeper pullback cannot be ruled out. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as...
Canada’s Economy Rebounded in April, Modest Growth Expected in May
The Canadian economy bounced back in April, up 0.3% month-on-month (m/m). This print landed in line with Statistics Canada’s advanced guidance and market expectations. The flash estimate for May points to a slight advance of 0.1% m/m. April’s reading was broad-based,...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8968; (P) 0.8979; (R1) 0.9000; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside at this point. Fall from 0.9223 could have completed a three-wave corrective move to 0.8825. Intraday bias is back on the upside for channel resistance (now...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2612; (P) 1.2641; (R1) 1.2670; More… Further decline is still expected in GBP/USD with 1.2702 resistance intact. Sustained trading below 1.2633 resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has completed, and target 1.2445 and...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0678; (P) 1.0703; (R1) 1.0728; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral as sideway trading continues. Outlook stays bearish with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Firm break...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Today’s avalanche of inflation numbers had little surprises in store. Euro area member states France (0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and Spain (0.3% m/m, 3.5% y/y) reported theirs ahead of the June European figure next Tuesday. Both printed bang in line with...
Week Ahead – French and UK Elections on the Horizon, US Jobs Report Eyed Too
France and UK go to the polls; will elections bring chaos or order? US payrolls report for June awaited as Fed hawks don’t budge Eurozone CPI, Fed minutes and ECB forum also on investors’ radar Macron’s gamble set to backfire Political risks came back to haunt the...
Eurozone CPI Report: Further Noise or a Proper Signal to Cut Rates Again?
ECB members disagree about the rates outlook Key data releases including the June CPI figures A soft inflation report is unlikely to result in a dovish July ECB meeting Political risks keep the euro under pressure The ECB hawks are clearly upset It has been three...
What Can We Expect from ISM Business PMIs Next Week?
ISM manufacturing PMI to tick higher; services PMI to lose some pace Business outlook could stay unchanged; rate cut forecasts will remain inflation-driven EURUSD stays neutral after core PCE inflation; needs a strong rebound above 1.0885 What happened previously?...
Weekly Focus – A Summer Full of Data and Central Bank Meetings
This week has been quiet in terms of global macro data and events. In this final Weekly Focus before the summer break, we will thus mainly highlight key data and events to watch until the Weekly Focus returns on Friday, 16 August. This week’s data releases included...
US: Consumer Income and Spending Grow While Inflation Cools in May
Personal income grew 0.5% month-on-month (m/m) in May, up from April’s 0.3% gain, and ahead of market expectations (0.4%). Accounting for inflation and taxes, real personal disposable was also up 0.5% m/m in May, relative to a flat reading in April (revised up from a...
Dollar Dips Slightly on PCE Core, But Overall Market Reactions Subdued
Dollar dips slightly in early US session, following the release of May’s PCE core inflation data. This Fed’s preferred measure of inflation indicated a continued, though modest, progress in disinflation. However, the financial market’s response to the report was...
Canada’s GDP grows 0.3% mom in Apr, matches expectations
Canada’s GDP grew 0.3% mom in April, matched expectations. Both goods-producing (+0.3%) and services-producing (+0.3%) industries contributed to the growth with 15 of 20 sectors increasing in the month. Advance information indicates that real GDP rose 0.1% mom in May....
EUR/USD Continues to Struggle Amid US Inflation Concerns
EUR/USD is on a downward trajectory on Friday, hovering around 1.0686 after a short-lived pause. The dollar experienced a temporary dip due to mixed American economic indicators and market anticipation ahead of the critical Core PCE inflation report, a significant...
ECB’s Villeroy: Confidence grows in inflation forecasts as data surprises diminish
ECB Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau expressed increased confidence in the inflation forecast today, noting that the frequency of data surprises has diminished. “As data surprises are now smaller and revisions to the current assessment more minor...
USD/JPY Flat, Tokyo Core CPI Higher Than Expected
Japanese yen pushes above 161 The Japanese yen is unchanged on Friday, but has managed to set a new low against the US dollar. The yen is trading at 160.72 in the European session and fell as low as 161.28 earlier, its lowest level since 1986. Tokyo Core CPI...
GBP/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2612; (P) 1.2641; (R1) 1.2670; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and further decline is expected with 1.2702 resistance intact. Sustained trading below 1.2633 resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has completed, and...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0658; (P) 1.0688; (R1) 1.0710; More…. Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook stays bearish with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Firm...
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Turns Red While USD/CAD Rallies
GBP/USD declined below the 1.2670 support zone. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for more gains above the 1.3735 resistance. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2700 resistance zone. There is a...
CAD: GDP Data Incoming – Action Forex
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) saw volatile movement on Thursday due to mixed US economic data and a lack of domestic updates. With Canada absent from the economic calendar until Friday’s GDP report, the CAD was influenced by US figures. Markets are now focused on the...
GBPJPY Unlocks New 16-Year High
GBPJPY posts several green days RSI and stochastics are overstretched GBPJPY is recording the tenth consecutive green day, posting a fresh 16-year high of 203.57. The market is looking positive, but the technical oscillators are suggesting overstretched momentum. The...
FX option expiries for 28 June 10am New York cut
There are a couple of large ones to take note of, as highlighted in bold.And they are all for EUR/USD, layered between 1.0650 through to 1.0725. That is likely to help lock price action in European trading, before the expiries roll off later in the day. If anything,...
Dollar Gains Traction Ahead of Key Inflation Data, Yen Struggles Despite Stronger Tokyo CPI
Dollar is showing renewed strength in Asian session, particularly against commodity currencies. Market reactions to the televised debate between US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have been muted, with traders shifting their focus to upcoming...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2594; (P) 1.2644; (R1) 1.2672; More… Further decline is expected in GBP/USD as long as 1.2702 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 1.2633 resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has completed, and target 1.2445 and...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8950; (P) 0.8967; (R1) 0.8990; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral at this point. Further decline is still expected with 0.8992 resistance intact. Below 0.8912 minor support will bring retest of 0.8825 low. Firm break there will resume...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.00; (P) 160.43; (R1) 161.26; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70 from 154.53 at 160.37 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 163.97. On the downside, below 159.18...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets No follow-through price action on yesterday’s rise in long-term yields for now. We at least partially attributed the move to investors’ pondering issues of long-term fiscal sustainability in Europe but also in the US. The Biden-Trump presidential debate later...
USD/JPY Steady as BOJ Watches With Sense of Urgency
Japanese yen remains below 160 USD/JPY is trading at 160.38 early in the North American session, down 0.25% on the day. The Japanese yen has been trading below 160 on Thursday, after dropping as low as 160.87 on Wednesday, its lowest level since December 1986. As the...
US Dollar on Edge: How PCE Data Could Shake Uup the Markets
What is the US PCE data and why is it important? Uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve and US Dollar remains high due to conflicting US data and global inflation concerns. The upcoming PCE data release is highly anticipated as it may influence the Fed’s stance on...
JP 225 Extends Rally to 2-Month High
JP 225 index has been steadily advancing in the short term On Wednesday, price jumped to its highest since April 12 Momentum indicators are heavily skewed to the upside The JP 225 index (cash) had been trading without clear direction since early May, fluctuating...
Gold Rebounds from Near the Lower End of its Range
Gold bulls step in from near key support zone RSI and MACD suggest momentum is turning positive Advances within the current sideways range may be possible A dip below 2,290 could invite the bears back into the game Gold is trading higher today, after hitting support...
Is a China-Taiwan Conflict Likely? Watch the Region’s Stock Market Indexes
The U.S. government in early May sanctioned 300 Chinese entities for supplying machine tools and parts to Russia for its war against Ukraine, while in mid-May Russian president Vladimir Putin made a two-day visit to China. In turn I found myself thinking about how...
Fed’s Bostic sees potential for rate cut in Q4
In an essay, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic anticipates that gradual slowdown in the labor market and overall economic activity will lead to inflation decreasing to the target level of 2% by 2025, or slightly later. Bostic mentioned that instead of maintaining...
Dollar Index: Eases from New Multi-Week Hhigh on US Data, Japan’s Intervention Warning
The dollar index fell on Thursday, following overall slightly better than US data and warning from Japan’s authorities about possible action against sharp fall of yen. The US economy grew by 1.4% in Q1 vs expected 1.3% rise, weekly jobless claims fell below...
Dollar Weakens after Mixed Data, Traders Turn Cautious
Dollar weakens broadly weakening in the early US session following the release of a batch of economic data. Durable goods orders presented a mixed bag. Concurrently, continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose to their highest level in more than two-and-a-half...
US durable goods orders rise 0.1% mom, ex-transport orders down -0.1% mom
US durable goods orders rose 0.1% mom to USD 283.1B in May, above expectation of -0.1% mom. Ex-transport orders fell -0.1% mom to 187.7B, below expectation of 0.1% mom. Ex-defense orders fell -0.2% mom to USD 266.1B. Transportation equipment rose 0.6% mom to USD...
US initial jobless claims falls to 233k, vs exp 230k
US initial jobless claims fell -6k to 233k in the week ending June 22, slightly above expectation of 230k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 3k to 236k. Continuing claims rose 18k to 1839k in the week ending June 15, highest since November 27, 2021....
RBA’s Hauser cautions against policy decisions based on single data point
In an event today, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser emphasized the need for comprehensive analysis before making policy decisions, stating, “it would be a bad mistake to set policy on the basis of one number and we don’t intend to do that.” This comment comes in the...
Yen Under Pressure as USD/JPY Hits New Highs Since 1986
The USD/JPY pair soared to 160.34 on Thursday, reaching levels not seen since 1986, as market participants increasingly anticipate potential interventions from Japanese authorities. Despite repeated verbal assurances, the Japanese government has not taken concrete...
WTI Crude Oil Moves Sideways in Near Term
WTI crude oil fails to rally above 81.90 RSI and MACD remain above mid-levels WTI crude oil has been on the sidelines for the most part of the week as the 81.90 level seems to be a real struggle for the bulls. Technically, the price could gain some ground in the...
USD/JPY Rate Hits Highest Level Since 1986
As shown in the USD/JPY chart, today the rate is around 160.58 yen per US dollar. Bloomberg reports the words of Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki: → Stable dynamics are important for currency rates. → Sharp unilateral movements are highly undesirable. → We...
Buyers Failed to Pick Up on the Crypto Market
Market Picture The crypto market has been under moderate but persistent pressure throughout Wednesday, losing 1.26% over the past 24 hours to $2.24 trillion. Prices of top coins are down, except for Toncoin, which adds 1.6% for the day and 19% for 30 days, and Tron...
Eurozone economic sentiment falls slightly to 95.9, EU ticks down to 96.4
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator ticked down from 96.1 to 95.9 in June. Employment Expectation Indicator fell from 101.3 to 99.7. Economic Uncertainty Indicator fell from 18.5 to 18.0. Eurozone industry confidence fell from -9.9 to -10.1. Services confidence fell...
European Currencies Face a Crucial Test: What to Expect
The end of June and the beginning of July are packed with significant economic and political events for the pound and the euro. A few weeks ago, Emmanuel Macron dissolved the parliament and announced snap parliamentary elections. He took this step after the far-right...
EURUSD Rises Slightly Up After Battle With 8-Week Low
EURUSD holds in sideways move SMAs create bearish crossovers MACD continues to head south EURUSD tested the previous low of 1.0665 on Wednesday, holding within a narrow range of 1.0665-1.0720. The 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) posted a bearish crossover...
FX option expiries for 27 June 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are sandwiching the current spot price at 1.0650 and 1.0700. That is likely to help lock price action at the current levels before we get to US trading later....
Yen Recovers as Japan Steps Up Verbal Intervention, But No Sign of Lasting Bottom Yet
Yen is showing broad-based recovery today, although the momentum remains weak, following its decline to the lowest level against Dollar since 1986. Japan has finally stepped up its verbal intervention efforts again, with Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki expressing a...
USD/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8923; (P) 0.8938; (R1) 0.8964; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. While recovery from 0.8825 might still extend, near term outlook will stay bearish with 0.8992 resistance intact. Below 0.8912 minor support will bring...
Gold: Third Time Lucky for the Bears?
Gold has been under moderate pressure since last Friday, when the price reversed sharply from above $2360. This is an important signal from the bears that they retain control of the market, forming a trend of lower local highs. On Wednesday morning, the price...
XAU/USD: Gold Stands at the Back Foot on Hawkish Comments from Fed
Gold price dipped to one-week low on Wednesday, deflated by the latest hawkish comments from Fed policymakers. The US central bank expects to bring inflation under control by keeping policy rate unchanged for some time, but also reiterated their willingness to...
Amazon shares rise to record high, crossing $2 trillion valuation
Amazon daily chartShares of Amazon are catching a bid today, rising 3.1% to an all time high. The climb above $192 along with 10.406 billion shares outstanding puts the company above a $2 trillion market cap for the first time.That's against earnings guidance of...
Gold Prices Under Pressure as Dollar Index (DXY), US Yields Rise
Gold continues its decline with $2300/oz firmly back in sight. US Dollar index and US 10Y yield continue to rise, US 10Y now at 4.275%. PCE inflation data could be the catalyst needed for gold prices to find some direction. Fundamental Overview Gold prices remain...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.33; (P) 159.55; (R1) 159.90; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside as recent rally resumed through 159.92 temporary top after brief consolidations. Decisive break of 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70 from 154.53 at 160.37 will...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8923; (P) 0.8938; (R1) 0.8964; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral at this point. Near term outlook will stay bearish with 0.8992 resistance intact. Below 0.8912 minor support will bring retest of 0.8825 low. Firm break there will resume...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2666; (P) 1.2685; (R1) 1.2704; More… GBP/USD is staying above 1.2622 temporary low despite today’s decline. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Further fall is expected as long as 1.2739 resistance holds. Break of 1.2622, and sustained trading...
USD/JPY: Probes Again Through 160.00 Barrier and Hits New Multi-Decade Highs
USDJPY hit new multi-decade high above 160 on Wednesday, as bulls regained control after a two-day consolidation. Fresh probe above psychological 160 barrier suggests that bids remain strong despite warning that Japan’s authorities may intervene to support weakening...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Markets are testing the resolve of Japanese officials. USD/JPY broke through the 160-level which triggered FX interventions at the end of April and early March. The pair set a new nearly 40-yr high above 160.50. Verbal warnings by the Japanese (vice-) finance...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0689; (P) 1.0716; (R1) 1.0742; More…. EUR/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 1.0667 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook stays bearish with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective...
AUD/USD Surged, Buoyed by RBA Confidence and Inflation Ggrowth
The Australian dollar strengthened notably against the US dollar, with the AUD/USD pair reaching 0.6684. Australia’s May economic indicators from MI remained unchanged at zero compared to the previous value. Meanwhile, Australia’s weighted average consumer price index...
Yen Hits 37-Year Low Against Dollar, Japan to Intervene or Not?
Yen is drawing significant attention again today as it plummeted past the crucial 160 mark against Dollar, and hit its lowest level in over 37 years. Market participants are vigilantly watching for any signs of intervention from Japanese authorities, yet no action has...
ECB’s Panetta: Must manage risks beyond baseline scenarios
Speaking today, ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta noted that the current macroeconomic conditions support “normalization of the monetary stance.” He added that ECB initiated this process recently and, under the “baseline scenario,” intends to continue it...
Will There Be Rebound Development in Bitcoin?
Market picture Crypto market capitalisation added 1.2%, recovering to Monday’s levels of $2.28 trillion. On 25 June, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell into “fear” territory at 30 points, the lowest since September 2023. On 26 June, the index recovered to 46. Both...
GBP/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2666; (P) 1.2685; (R1) 1.2704; More… Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment, and further decline is expected in GBP/USD as long as 1.2739 resistance holds. Break of 1.2622, and sustained trading below 1.2633 resistance turned support will...
AUD/JPY: Aussie Outperformance With Hotter AU CPI
Australia’s monthly CPI has increased to 4% from 3.7% in April, a sign of a sticky and elevated consumer inflationary trend. The odds of an RBA interest rate in the near-term horizon have reduced which increased the yield premium of 2-year Australian government bond...
ECB’s Rehn considers two more rate cuts this year as reasonable
In an interview today, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn indicated that market data suggests the likelihood of two additional rate cuts, bringing the rate to 3.25% by the end of the year. He also noted that the terminal rate for this easing cycle is expected to...
AUD/NZD: Aussie Surges Almost 1% vs Kiwi Dollar After Release of Australia’s Inflation Report
Australian dollar surged 0.9% vs Kiwi dollar in Wednesday’s morning, lifted by fresh hawkish signals that the RBA may opt for a rate hike next month, after Australia’s inflation rose above expectations and hit new multi-month high in May. A full-figure rise broke...
USDJPY Flirts With 160 Level Again
USDJPY trades with weak momentum slightly below critical 160 level Overbought conditions detected; sellers wait below 158.35-159.00 BoJ intervention is possible; US core PCE inflation due on Friday at 12:30 GMT Following a constructive week, USDJPY is now hovering...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0689; (P) 1.0716; (R1) 1.0742; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook stays bearish with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Break of 1.0667 will target 1.0601...
FX option expiries for 26 June 10am New York cut
There are just two to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And they are both for EUR/USD, pinned on either side of the spot price at 1.0700 and 1.0750. That is likely to lock price action in the session ahead, with more expiries following that up at 1.0650,...
Strong Inflation Boosts Aussie, Euro Struggle Returns
Australian Dollar surged broadly in Asian session following a much stronger-than-expected monthly CPI report, sparking speculation that RBA might return to rate hikes in August. Comments from a top RBA official also indicated that the central bank is vigilant about...
Bitcoin’s Attractive Drop
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market was falling to a total capitalisation of $2.2 trillion at the end of the day on Monday but managed to add over 2% to the lows, recovering to $2.25 trillion, down 0.5% from the day before. The technical picture in Bitcoin is...
Brent Crude Oil Hits Two-Month High Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Brent crude oil prices surged to $86 per barrel on Tuesday, marking the highest level in two months. This rise was driven by escalating geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, particularly the ongoing confrontation between Israel and Hamas, which...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0696; (P) 1.0721; (R1) 1.0760; More…. EUR/USD dips notably in early US session but stays in range above 1.0667. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further fall is expected with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2647; (P) 1.2672; (R1) 1.2712; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is expected as long as 1.2739 resistance holds. Break of 1.2622, and sustained trading below 1.2633 resistance turned support will...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8919; (P) 0.8932; (R1) 0.8943; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as consolidation continues above 0.8825. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Near term outlook remains bearish with 0.8992 resistance intact. Break of 0.8825 will resume...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.95; (P) 159.43; (R1) 160.11; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 157.70 resistance turned support holds. Sustained break of 106.20 and 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets US and EMU (interest rate) markets today are holding tight ranges with trading mostly technical in nature. If anything markets still err to rather dovish bias, with yields on both sides of the Atlantic hold with reach of recent lows. There were no data in EMU....
Canada: Inflation Accelerates in May
Headline CPI inflation edged higher in May to 2.9% year-on-year (y/y), above expectations for a 2.6% y/y print. The acceleration was led by services, which were up 4.6% y/y, as Canadians were paying up for travel tours (+6.9% y/y) and flights (+4.5% y/y). This...
Could Tokyo CPI Make the July BoJ Meeting a Live Pne?
BoJ meeting minutes summary keep the door open to a July rate hike Key data due this week, especially Friday’s Tokyo CPI Retail sales data to show consumer appetite Yen remains under pressure as officials avoid verbal intervention The BoJ is still willing to hike...
US consumer confidence falls to 100.4, within the same narrow range
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence fell from 101.3 to 100.4 in June, slightly above expectation of 100.2. Present Situation Index rose from 140.8 to 141.5. Expectation Index fell from 74.9 to 73.0. The Expectations Index has been below 80 (the threshold which...
Dollar Index: Bullish Bias Above Daily Cloud, US Inflation Data in Focus
The dollar index regained traction on Tuesday and ticked higher after dropping 0.4% on Monday. Pullback was contained by daily cloud top and marked a light correction of a larger uptrend, which remains intact. Technical picture on daily chart remains bullish, as MA’s...
Canadian Dollar Surges on Unexpected Inflation Rebound in May
Canadian Dollar jumps following after data showing that Canadian inflation unexpectedly accelerated in May. More importantly, the resurgence in price pressures was largely driven by significant increase in services inflation. The data aligns with BoC Governor Tiff...
Canada’s CPI accelerates to 2.9% yoy, driven by service sector price hikes
Canada’s CPI recorded a notable increase in May, climbing to 2.9% yoy from 2.7% yoy the previous month, surpassing the anticipated rate of 2.6%. This acceleration in headline CPI was primarily fueled by a significant uptick in service prices, which rose by 4.6% yoy in...
Fed’s Bowman: Inflation to remain elevated, rate hold necessary
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, in a speech today, said her baseline outlook that US inflation will return to the 2% target, provided federal funds rate remains at its current level of 5.25-5.50% “for some time.” She emphasized that Fed is “still not yet at the point”...
Canadian Dollar Eyes Inflation Release
The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3675 in the European session, up 0.12% on the day at the time of writing. We could see some volatility in the North American session, when Canada releases the May CPI report. In the...
USD/JPY: Bulls Gesitate on Approach to 160.00 Barrier, Potential Intervention Trigger
USDJPY edges lower after hitting levels just ticks away from 160 barrier, which many see as a trigger for intervention, as Japan’s authorities intervened at the end of April when the pair cracked 160 barrier. Monday’s trading was closed in red for the first time in...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 201.51; (P) 202.11; (R1) 203.09; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 202.97. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 206.56 next. on the downside, below 200.46...
Dollar Declines: How Deep Could the Correction Be?
By the end of last week, the American currency traded rather mixed: The USD/JPY currency pair strengthened by more than 200 pips and almost tested the significant resistance level at 160.00. The USD/CAD pair failed to break out of the medium-term flat corridor of...
Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY
FX intervention chatter returns, but is it enough for the ailing JPY? USD/JPY at psychological 160.00 handle. EUR/JPY prints morningstar candlestick pattern, hinting at the potential for further upside. Fundamental Overview The Japanese Yen continues to tread water...
CADJPY Aims for April’s Multi-Year High
CADJPY surpasses key resistance levels, but enters overbought zone Next resistance at 117.93; support at 115.80-116.00 Canadian CPI inflation due for release at 12:30 GMT CADJPY is in the third consecutive week of gains, having experienced an impressive rally to...
Gold Reverses Back Below 50-day SMA
Gold retreats after unsuccessful break above 50-day SMA The price extends its structure of lower highs Momentum indicators turn bearish Gold had been in a steady recovery from its recent one-month low, which led to the price closing above its 50-day simple moving...
Canadian CPI Takes Center Stage; Yen Stabilizes in Quiet Trading
Trading in the Asian session has been quiet today and is expected to remain so during the European session, given the empty economic calendar. However, Yen continues to be a significant focus among market participants. Discussions are emerging about the possibility of...
FX option expiries for 25 June 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The expiries should keep a floor on price action in the session ahead, if anything else. But the spot price is slightly far away with a more muted mood...
American Apathy Supports Oil – Action Forex
The price of crude Oil rose steadily in the previous fortnight and is starting the new week with a positive trend. This rise emphasises the importance of the 200-week moving average, below which the price has not fallen for a long time for more than three years. The...
Yen Steadies After Dreadful Week
The Japanese yen has posted gains on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 159.26, down 0.10%. The yen hasn’t had a winning daily session since June 19th and declined 1.5% last week. On the data front, Japan releases the Services Producer Price Index....
USD/JPY: Verbal Intervention Intensified But Real Intervention May Have to Wait
The USD/JPY has traded higher in the past 7 sessions and printed an intraday high of 159.85 last Friday, 21 June which coincided with its 34-year high of 160.23 printed on 26 April. Last week’s persistent JPY weakness prompted Japan’s Ministry of Finance Vice...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.02; (P) 159.44; (R1) 160.22; More… Despite the deep but brief retreat, intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside with 158.65 minor support intact. Current rally should target 160.20 high, or possibly to 100% projection of 151.86 to...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8917; (P) 0.8931; (R1) 0.8958; More…. USD/CHF is extending the consolidation above 0.8825 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Still, near term outlook remains bearish with 0.8992 resistance intact. Break of 0.8825 will resume the fall from...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2619; (P) 1.2646; (R1) 1.2671; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. Further decline is expected as long as 1.2739 resistance holds. Break of 1.2622, and sustained trading below 1.2633 resistance turned...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0669; (P) 1.0695; (R1) 1.0719; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues above 1.0667. Further fall is expected with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective...
USD Weekly Analysis: USDX and EURUSD
Fundamental Analysis This week we will have a few high-impact data releases from the economic calendar. Still, the focus will be on several speeches by Fed officials, with five out of eight appearances scheduled featuring hawkish members. This will drive a strong...
Australian Dollar Calm Ahead of Consumer Confidence
The Australian dollar has started the week quietly. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6648 early in the North American session, up 0.11% on the day. Australia releases Westpac Consumer Sentiment early on Tuesday. Consumer confidence has been weak and fell 0.3% in May to 82.4,...
Fed’s Goolsbee optimistic on inflation improvement
In a CNBC interview today, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed cautious optimism about inflation in the US, describing himself as “closet optimistic” that there will be improvement on the inflation front. Goolsbee refrained from commenting on the timing of...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets It was a slow but constructive start of the week. The economic calendar had little to offer with the exception of the German Ifo indicator. Confidence fell in June from May with the headline series easing from 89.3 to 88.6. Both the current assessment (88.3)...
BTCUSD Elliott Wave : Forecasting the Decline Toward New Lows
In this technical article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Bitcoin BTCUSD , published in members area of the website. As our members know, Bitcoin is doing a correction against the 56510 low, which is unfolding as a Flat pattern. Now, the...
Yen Rebounds from 160 Level, Euro Gains but Political Risks Remain
USD/JPY attempt to break through the critical 160 level was unsuccessful for, as Yen recovered during a relatively quiet European session today. Although Yen surged briefly, there was no sustained selloff below the 159 mark against the greenback. The scale of the...
Instrument of the Week (June 24—28): GBPAUD Outlook
The GBPAUD pair represents the exchange rate between the British Pound and the Australian Dollar, serving as a crucial metric of economic interaction between the United Kingdom and Australia. Monetary policy changes, economic reports, and political developments...
EUR/JPY Outlook: Hits New Record High
EURJPY continues to trend higher and extends steep upleg into sixth straight day, to hit new record high above 171 mark in early Monday trading. Bulls firmly hold grip despite overbought conditions and signals from Japan’s authorities about the intervention to support...
EUR/USD: Bounce Needs to Clear 1.0760 Barrier to Signal Stronger Correction
EURUSD bounces on Monday, as traders collect profits from Thu/Fri fall. The single currency regained traction despite weaker than expected German Ifo data, as sentiment improves on growing expectations on ECB rate cut, following recent weak economic data. Markets...
Crypto Dive
Market picture Along with the rest of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is pulling back further into the area of last month’s lows. The sell-off intensified with the start of the new week, pushing total capitalisation back 3.6% in 24 hours to $2.26 trillion, which we...
S&P 500 Falls from Record High in Anticipation of Key News
On Friday, at 15:30 GMT+3, the Core PCE Price Index values will be released – an economic indicator to which the Federal Reserve pays special attention when assessing inflation levels in the US. This event is likely to cause a surge of news in the financial markets,...
USD/JPY Analysis: Rate Rises Above 159.9 Yen per Dollar
The yen was last this weak against the US dollar in late April, leading to currency interventions as the Bank of Japan deemed a rate above the psychological mark of 160 yen per USD unacceptable. The current weakness of the yen has triggered the usual warnings from...
Yen’s Plunge Puts Japan’s Intervention Resolve Under Scrutiny
Yen ended as the runaway loser last week as its decline reaccelerated towards the end. With the crucial 160 level against Dollar now within reach, market participants are keenly watching to see if Japan will intervene soon to prop up the Yen, or just let it depreciate...
German Ifo fall sto 88.6, struggling to overcome stagnation
German Ifo Business Climate fell from 89.3 to 88.6 in June, below expectation of 89.7. Current Assessment index was unchanged at 88.3, below expectation of 88.4. Expectations Index fell from 90.3 to 89.0, below expectation of 91.0. Ifo said that the German economy is...
FX option expiries for 24 June 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0690-00 and that is likely to keep price action more contained in the session ahead. There isn't much else to work with to start the week, so that should see a...
Japan’s Inaction and Refrained Rhetoric Lead to Speculation on New Intervention Threshold
Yen recovered mildly in quiet Asian session along with the Swiss Franc, driven by mild risk aversion in the region. Despite this uptick, there is no strong indication of a significant rebound for the Japanese currency following its sharp decline last week. Notably,...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Eurozone – Rising Inflation, Falling Economy As revised Eurostat data published on Monday, June 17, showed, inflation (CPI) in the 20 Eurozone countries accelerated to 2.6% (y/y) in May, compared to 2.4% in April when it was at its lowest since November 2023....
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP stayed in consolidation above 0.8396 last week but upside remains capped below 0.8482 support turned resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week and further decline is expected. On the downside, below 0.8429 minor support will bring retest of 0.8396 low...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF edged lower to 0.9476 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral and some more consolidations would be seen. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9683 resistance holds. On the downside,...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD stayed in consolidation below 1.3790 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3662 support holds. Above 1.3790 will bring retest of 1.3845 high first. Nevertheless, break of 1.3662...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s consolidation from 0.6713 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF dived to 0.8825 last week but recovered strongly since then. Initial bias remains neutral for consolidations above 0.8825. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 0.8992 resistance holds. Break of 0.8825 will resume the fall from 0.9223 to 61.8% retracement...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s rise from 151.68 accelerated to as high as 159.81 last week and there is no clear sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 160.20 high, or possibly to 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70 from 154.53 at 160.37. But upside should...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD stayed in consolidation above 1.0667 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further fall is expected with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Break...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s fall from 1.2859 short term top continued last week despite interim recovery. Initial bias is now on the downside this week. Sustained break of 1.2633 resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has completed, and target 1.2445 and...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s rally last week suggests that rise form 164.01 is resuming. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Firm break of 170.87 will target 61.8% projection of 164.01 to 170.87 from 167.52 at 171.75. On the downside, below 169.31 minor support will dampen this...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s down trend continued last week but it recovered after hitting 1.6026. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Upside should be limited by 1.6211 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Below 1.6026 will turn bias back to the...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s up trend resumed after brief retreat and hit as high as 202.01. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 202.97. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 206.56 next. on the downside,...
Yen’s Plunge Puts Japan’s Intervention Resolve Under Scrutiny
Yen ended as the runaway loser last week as its decline reaccelerated towards the end. With the crucial 160 level against Dollar now within reach, market participants are keenly watching to see if Japan will intervene soon to prop up the Yen, or just let it depreciate...
May Data to Show Canadian Inflation on Downward Trajectory
We expect Canadian inflation numbers on Tuesday will show further signs of gradual easing in price pressures. Consumer price index growth should edge down to 2.6% year-over-year from 2.7% in April. That would mark the fifth consecutive month that annual price growth...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Global Central Bank Decisions Galore
Summary United States: Economic Data More Rice & Beans than Steak & Eggs Markets chewed on an array of economic data this week, and what was served was mostly gristle. A weak retail sales print suggests that consumers may finally be feeling some spending...
The Weekly Bottom Line: A Grand Slam of Economic Data
U.S. Highlights U.S. retail sales grew marginally in May, however the downward revision in April points to waning momentum among U.S. consumers. Housing starts and building permits both declined in May as higher interest rates weigh on builder confidence. U.S....
S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 Week Ahead: Is It Time for a Deeper Retracement as US Investors Shed Equity Funds…?
Over the past two weeks, US investors have shed nearly $30 billion dollars of US equity funds (net selling) according to data from LSEG. A bullish week for the S&P 500 but the Nasdaq 100 looks less convincing. A pullback in Nvidia stock and the psychological 20000...
Summary 6/24 – 6/28
Monday, Jun 24, 2024 Tuesday, Jun 25, 2024 Wednesday, Jun 26, 2024 Thursday, Jun 27, 2024 Friday, Jun 28, 2024 The post Summary 6/24 – 6/28 appeared first on Action Forex.
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2633; (P) 1.2679; (R1) 1.2704; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is back on the downside as fall from 1.2859 resumed by breaking through 1.2656 temporary low. Firm break of 1.2633 resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0686; (P) 1.0719; (R1) 1.0735; More…. EUR/USD is staying in range above 1.0667 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 1.0760 resistance intact. Break of 1.0667 will resume the fall from 1.0915, as another leg in the...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8855; (P) 0.8891; (R1) 0.8949; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidations continue above 0.8825. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8992 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8825 will resume the fall from...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.25; (P) 158.59; (R1) 159.28; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 151.86 is in progress for 160.20 high, or possibly to 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70 from 154.53 at 160.37. But upside should be...
WTI Oil: Rising Demand and Geopolitical Tensions Continue to Inflate Price
WTI oil price hits new seven-week high on Friday, keeping firm tone and on course for the second consecutive weekly gain. Improving demand was signaled by fall in the US fuel inventories, as summer driving season in the world’s biggest oil consumer starts, while...
GBP/USD Shrugs Despite Sparkling Retail Sales
The British pound is slightly lower on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2636 early in the North American session, down 0.17% on the day. UK retail sales hit 4-month high UK retail sales jumped 2.9% m/m in May, an impressive turnaround from the revised 1.8% decline in...
Downside PMI Surprise Brought the Euro Closer to the Critical Zone
The European session on Friday started with a new wave of euro selling, which was supported by weak preliminary PMIs. According to June estimates, the strengthening of economic activity in the eurozone, which has been gaining momentum since October, is at risk of...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets PMI business confidence was on tap at the close of the week. The European June edition comes with an important disclaimer though. PMI owner S&P Global noted that the turmoil in the wake of the European elections and the French snap elections has likely...
Week Ahead – US PCE Inflation the Highlight of a Relatively Light Agenda
Core PCE inflation to test bets of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 Yen awaits BoJ Summary of Opinions, Tokyo CPI Canadian CPI data also enters the spotlight Will PCE data confirm Fed rate cut bets? Although the Fed’s updated dot plot pointed to only one quarter-point...
Weekly Focus – PMIs Question the Strength of Euro Area Recovery
In a fairly quiet week equities edged modestly higher, and a barrel of crude oil traded back above USD 85. Along a hawkish Norges Bank twist this supported NOK while more pricy oil weighs on JPY which continues to weaken. Japan’s top currency diplomat stressed that...
US PMI composite ticks up to 54.6, robust growth and cooling inflation
US PMI Manufacturing rose from 51.3 to 51.7 in June. PMI Services jumped from 54.8 to 55.1, a 26-month high. PMI Composite also ticked up from 54.5 to 54.6, a 26-month high. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The...
Euro and Sterling Fall on Weak PMI Data
Euro fell notably today, along with decline in Eurozone government bond yields, following weaker-than-expected PMI data. Political instability in France is negatively impacting business activity, while Germany’s economic recovery has lost momentum. At the same time,...
Canada’s retail sales rises 0.7% mom in Apr, but falls -0.6% mom in May
Canada’s retail sales rose 0.7% mom to CAD 66.8B in April, matched expectations. Sales were up in seven of nine subsectors and were led by increases at gasoline stations and fuel vendors as well as food and beverage retailers. Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline...
UK economic growth slows as services PMI hits 7-month low
UK’s PMI data for June presents a mixed picture. Manufacturing PMI slightly increased from 51.2 to 51.4, surpassing the expectation of 51.0 and marking a 23-month high. However, Services PMI fell from 52.9 to 51.2, below expected 53.2, reaching a 7-month low....
Euro Extends Losses After Soft PMIs Release
The euro has edged lower on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0687 in the European session, down 0.14% on the day. Is the eurozone economy slowing down? The week ended on a sour note in Europe as June PMIs declined in the eurozone. The Services PMI dropped to 52.6, down...
EUR/USD: Falls Further on Downbeat PMI Data
EURUSD fell to one week low on Friday and extended strong fall of Thursday, after the pair came under fresh pressure from downbeat PMI data. The reports released on Friday showed that activity in services industry in the Eurozone and bloc’s two largest economies –...
Yen Falling Again: Devaluation Scenario Remains the Main One
The Japanese yen is weakening against the US dollar again. The USD/JPY pair is rising to 158.97. The currency pair is now again close to the levels when the Bank of Japan and the country’s authorities conducted currency interventions. Japan’s top currency diplomat,...
USDCAD: Rising Opportunity
In the Daily timeframe, USDCAD is in a long-term bullish trend, and the price has fallen to the trend line. Despite a minor correction, the price bounced off the trend line and is testing an important resistance area. Moving averages indicate the possibility of...
USDCAD Bears Could Remain in Control
USDCAD eases below 1.3700; could attract new sellers in short-term Next support could emerge within 1.3600-1.3622 territory US S&P Global PMIs, Canadian retail sales on the agenda USDCAD has been tiptoeing to the downside for five consecutive trading days,...
Crypto Didn’t Dare to Grow
Market picture The crypto market failed to get on a growth path, with its capitalisation falling 1.5% to $2.35 trillion in the last 24 hours. Cryptocurrencies have had their wings clipped by the sell-off in equity markets, reflecting a downturn in risk appetite in...
Eurozone PMI manufacturing falls to 45.6, services down to 52.6
Eurozone’s PMI data for June revealed significant declines, with Manufacturing PMI falling from 47.3 to 45.6, below the expected 45.6. Services PMI also dropped from 53.2 to 52.6, missing the forecast of 53.5. Consequently, Composite PMI decreased from 52.2 to 48.0....
Yen Approaches 160 Against Dollar, Will Japan Tolerate a Move to 165 or 170?
Yen is under intense scrutiny today as it continues a six-day losing streak, approaching the key psychological level of 160 against Dollar. This move comes despite Japan’s core inflation reaccelerating in May, but failed to meet market expected pace. Additionally,...
FX option expiries for 21 June 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0650-60 and the 1.0700 mark. Both should play the role in limiting any material downside before the expiries roll off later today. But given how price action has...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2695; (P) 1.2717; (R1) 1.2742; More… GBP/USD weakens after rejection by 55 4H EMA but stays above 1.2656 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, risk will stay on the downside as long as...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8835; (P) 0.8845; (R1) 0.8856; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first with current recovery. Some consolidations would be seen but outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8992 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8825 will...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0728; (P) 1.0741; (R1) 1.0756; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0756) holds. Fall from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.76; (P) 157.94; (R1) 158.27; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with break of 158.25 temporary top. Choppy rise from 151.86 has resumed and is now targeting a retest on 160.20 high. But upside should be limited there, at least...
EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9483; (P) 0.9499; (R1) 0.9520; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9683 resistance holds, and fall from 0.9928 is expected...
XAUUSD: Trend Breaking? – Action Forex
On the H4, XAUUSD reached a downtrend line after a short-term rise. The price is approaching the critical resistance area and MA200, which also acts as resistance. In this case, two scenarios are possible. If Gold breaks the resistance of 2350, the trend line and...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The Bank of England was one of the three central bank highlights today. The Norges Bank and the Swiss National Bank outcomes are in the section down below. Threadneedle Street kept the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% in a 7-2 vote with two members voting for a...
Euro on Firmer Footing ahead of Flash PMIs as French Risks Subside
Euro rebounds as French election fears ease June PMIs to come into the spotlight amid more cautious ECB Flash estimates are due on Friday at 08:00 GMT Calmer week for the euro after French turmoil European assets are having a better week following the market panic...
GBP/USD Lower as BoE Holds Rates
The British pound is lower on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2683 in the North American session at the time of writing, down 0.29% on the day. The Bank of England held rates at today’s meeting, as expected. There are no releases out of the US today. Bank of England...
Gold & Silver Test Two-Week Hhighs on Geopolitical Concerns and Rate Cut Optimism
Key Points: Geopolitics return to the fore as concerns mount around the Middle East and Asia.. Safe haven demand sees gold (xau/usd) rise toward 2350 resistance. Silver technicals hint at the potential for further upside. Commodity markets have returned to positive...
Ethereum and Solana Get Support
Market picture The crypto market added 1% in 24 hours to $2.4 trillion, supported by positive momentum in Bitcoin (+0.9%) and interest in Ethereum (+2%). Top altcoins are mostly adding to the levels of the day before except for falling Solana (-1.6%), but it too has...
Bank of England Review – August Rate Cut in Play
At today’s monetary policy meeting the BoE left the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% as widely expected. As we expected, the BoE retained much of its previous guidance but delivered a slight dovish twist, laying the groundwork for an August cut. Gilt yields tracked lower...
Swiss Franc Plummets After SNB Rate Cut, Sterling Weakens Following BoE Hold
Swiss Franc is currently the worst performer today, plummeting after SNB delivered a rate cut for the second consecutive meeting. In addition to the rate reduction, SNB lowered its inflation forecast across the board. Nevertheless, Franc’s selloff has been relatively...
SNB Cut Sends Swiss Franc Tumbling
The Swiss franc is down sharply on Thursday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.8897 in the European session, up 0.67% on the day. Swiss National Bank trims rate to 1.25% The Swiss National Bank kept investors hanging right up to the last minute as to whether or not it would cut...
(BOE) Bank rate maintained at 5.25%
Monetary Policy Summary, June 2024 The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 19 June 2024, the MPC voted by a majority...
BoE maintains rate, eyes August forecasts for inflation assessment
BoE left Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as widely anticipated, with a 7-2 vote among the Monetary Policy Committee members. Swati Dhingra and Dave Ramsden again voted for a 25 bos cut to 5.00%. The central bank stated that, as part of the August forecast round, the...
USD/JPY: Probes Again Through Pivotal Fibo Barrier, Inflated by Diverging Monetary Policies
USDJPY continues to trend higher and cracks pivotal Fibo barrier at 158.22 (76.4% of 160.19/151.85) which recently capped several attacks. Sustained break here would generate fresh bullish signal for continuation of entire recovery from 151.85 (May 3 low) and open way...
USDCHF Cheers on SNB Rate Cut
USDCHF rises rapidly after SNB lowers interest rates to 1.25% Oversold signals favor the bulls; more upside needed for a positive outlook USDCHF turned swiftly up to test its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.8890 after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut...
Pound Froze ahead of BoE Meeting: What Will the Central Bank Decide?
The GBP/USD pair is balancing around 1.2709 on Thursday, after the British pound rose in price against the US dollar for three consecutive days and finally paused. The Bank of England will convene for its regular meeting today, at which the regulator will review all...
Ifo upgrades German GDP forecasts, slowly working its way out of crisis
The Ifo Institute upgraded its growth forecasts for German economy, indicating that it is “slowly working its way out of the crisis.” GDP is now expected to grow by 0.4% in 2024, up from March forecast of 0.2%. Growth is projected to further accelerate to 1.5% in...
AUDUSD Extends Sideways Movement – Action Forex
AUDUSD trades back and forth within its range The ascending 50-day SMA acts as a strong floor Oscillators remain tilted to the bullish side AUDUSD has been trading sideways for more than a month now as the price has been unable to jump above the five-month high of...
Markets Await SNB and BoE Decisions, Gold Bounces Higher
As markets await rate decisions from SNB and then BoE today, both Swiss Franc and Sterling are trading largely within established ranges. SNB’s decision is particularly uncertain, with a close call on whether they will implement a second consecutive rate cut. If SNB...
FX option expiries for 20 June 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 mark. That will once again keep price action more contained, with downside momentum likely to meet a floor at the figure level until the expiries roll...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8442; (P) 0.8453; (R1) 0.8463; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral first as consolidations continue above 0.8396. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8482 support turned resistance holds. Below 0.8396 will resume larger down trend...
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6093; (P) 1.6172; (R1) 1.6212; More… EUR/AUD’s down trend resumed by breaking through 1.6148 temporary low and intraday bias is back on the downside. Next target is 100% projection of 1.6679 to 1.6211 from 1.6418 at 1.5950. On the upside, above...
AUDUSD: Strong Zone
In the Daily Timeframe, AUDUSD started a short-term bullish trend after a long-term decline. The price has reached the critical 61.8 Fibonacci resistance area, and despite the growing bullish sentiment, two scenarios should be considered. If the bulls push the price...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2678; (P) 1.2700; (R1) 1.2730; More… GBP/USD is still in weak recovery today and intraday bias remains neutral. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2859 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.2633 resistance turned support will argue that whole...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.50; (P) 157.87; (R1) 158.21; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally would be in favor as long as 154.53 support holds. Break of 158.25 will resume the choppy rise from 151.86 towards 160.20 high....
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0713; (P) 1.0737; (R1) 1.0765; More…. No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen but further fall is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0760) holds. Fall from 1.0915 is seen as another...
ECB’s Centeno: Ideal interest rates should approach 2%, avoiding zero
ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno remarked today that “the cycle of interest rates will continue to evolve,” signaling ongoing adjustments based on inflation trends. Centeno noted that rates “will fall if inflation helps us, which it’s doing”. However,...
CHF: Getting Bid Up Due to Safe Haven Status
The prior 6-month weakness of the Swiss franc against G-10 currencies has seen a short-term bullish reversal due to safe haven demand. Ongoing political uncertainty arising from the upcoming French legislative elections reinforced the ongoing CHF strength which led to...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8809; (P) 0.8860; (R1) 0.8892; More…. USD/CHF decline is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Rise from 0.8332 could have completed at 0.9223, ahead of 0.9243 key resistance. Further fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of...
USD/CHF – Flat Ahead of SNB Rate Decision
The Swiss franc is almost unchanged on Wednesday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.8838 in the North American session, down 0.04% on the day. Will the Swiss National Bank cut rates again? Switzerland’s central bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday and the markets...
Sterling and Aussie Show Strength in Quiet Trading
Trading as been relatively quiet in European session today. Sterling strengthened slightly despite CPI data showing inflation returning to BoE’s target for the first time in three years. Notably, services inflation remains elevated at 5.7%, which could limit the BoE’s...
NZ Dollar Eyes First-Quarter GDP
The New Zealand dollar is steady on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6138, down 0.10% in the European session at the time of writing. US markets are closed for a holiday. New Zealand will release first-quarter GDP early on Thursday. Is New Zealand still in recession?...
New Zealand dollar faces growth challenges
The NZD/USD pair declined to 0.6135 on Wednesday, despite the New Zealand dollar performing much better in the previous session. It rose in response to the fall of the US dollar, which was triggered by weaker-than-expected US retail sales data. These results increased...
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9466; (P) 0.9512; (R1) 0.9541; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside at this point Sustained trading below below 61.8% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9928 at 0.9510 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption, and target...
Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Sight Steady Increase
AUD/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 0.6590. NZD/USD could gain bullish momentum if there is a clear move above the 0.6150 resistance. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.6590 and is now recovering...
Gold Flirts With Upper Bollinger Band
Gold consolidates within ascending channel 20- and 50-period SMA post bullish cross MACD and RSI head higher Gold prices have been developing within an upward sloping channel in the short-term view with strong resistance at 2,336 and the 200-period simple moving...
XAU/USD: Gold Price Edges Higher But Still Capped Under Key Barrier
Gold price edged higher in early Wednesday’s trading after softer than expected US retail sales numbers improved the sentiment on fresh expectations for Fed rate cut this year. The price is holding near pivotal barrier at $2341 (recent range ceiling /top of ascending...
AUDCAD Bulls Stay in the Driver’s Seat
AUDCAD rebounds and breaks above 0.9125 Overall, it remains above a prior upside channel The advance may continue towards the 0.9230 zone A dip below 0.9000 could signal a bearish correction AUDCAD rebounded strongly on Tuesday, extending its recovery above the key...
UK Inflation Back at 2% But Services Inflation Remains a Concern, GBP/USD Rises
UK Inflation Rate: UK Inflation Rate YoY reaches 2% yet services inflation poses a challenge. UK Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.5% down from a previous print of 3.9%. GBP/USD rises as 1.2750 resistance area beckons. The Bank of England (BoE) will likely have mixed feelings...
USDJPY Reapproaches Multi-Year Highs – Action Forex
USDJPY in a steady advance after pullback halts at 50-day SMA Momentum indicators are strengthening in their positive zones USDJPY experienced a strong setback from its 34-year high of 160.20 following an intervention by Japanese authorities in late April. However,...
Sterling Steady as UK Inflation Eases; Australian Dollar Strengthens
British Pound held steady following release of UK data showing decrease in both headline and core consumer inflation for May. This development is unlikely to influence BoE decision tomorrow, where a rate hold is widely anticipated. Although BoE is expected to begin...
FX option expiries for 19 June 10am New York cut
There are just two to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0745 level. That is likely to help keep price action in the pair more muted, sticking closer to the expiries before rolling off later.Then, there is the one...
RBA Readiness to Hike Positive for AUD
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key rate at a 12-year high of 4.35%. The market widely expected the decision, so it did not cause a spike in volatility. However, we note that the RBA warned that it was ready to raise the rate. In its commentary on the rate...
ECB’s de Guindos emphasizes importance of economic projections in rate decisions
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos highlighted the critical role of updated macroeconomic projections in shaping interest rate decisions. During an interview with Spanish state broadcaster TVE, Guindos noted, “The projections are updated every three months, so we’ll...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.27; (P) 157.62; (R1) 158.07; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Further rally would be in favor as long as 154.53 support holds. Break of 158.25 will resume the choppy rise from 151.86 towards 160.20 high. But upside...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2673; (P) 1.2691; (R1) 1.2724; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations would be seen. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2859 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.2633 resistance turned...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets European markets for the second consecutive day enjoyed an interludium of calm after last week’s turbulence. There was little ‘new news’ from the political scene in France. Jordan Bardella of the far right Rassemblement National (RN) in an interview said his...
Will BoE Signal Rate Cuts Looming?
Soft UK data increase chances for September rate cut But wage growth remains elevated BoE meets on Thursday at 11:00 GMT But looming election could be a reason for cautiousness Investors more convinced about a September cut At its latest gathering, the Bank of England...
SNB Expected to Cut, But Risk of Disappointment
Expectations of a June cut by the SNB have been gaining traction But inflation picture isn’t entirely favourable; weak franc doesn’t help A lot of uncertainty awaits the SNB’s decision due Thursday at 07:30 GMT Will the SNB cut rates again? The Swiss National Bank...
Fed’s Williams foresees gradual rate cuts amid continued disinflation
New York Fed President John Williams shared optimistic views on the US economy in an interview with FOX Business today. Williams highlighted encouraging signs that supply and demand are rebalancing, contributing to a “disinflationary process continuing.” He...
Fed’s Barkin optimistic on inflation, emphasizes “sustainment” and “broadening”
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin expressed optimism about the inflation outlook in an interview with MNI Webcast. Barkin noted that we are “on the back side of inflation,” indicating that inflationary pressures are easing. He highlighted that the next several...
US dollar rebounds on fixing demand
The US dollar has made a nice comeback today, despite the softer retail sales data. The latest round of bids came ahead of the London fix, so that could have been a driver, especially with a US holiday tomorrow.That said, the bids came early for a fixing trade and the...
U.S. Retail Sales Eked Out a Gain in May
Retail sales rose 0.1% for the month of May. Additionally, April’s figure was revised downward to -0.2% month/month (previously flat). The reading was lower than the consensus forecast calling for an increase of 0.3%. Trade in the auto sector was up 0.8% m/m,...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0701; (P) 1.0719; (R1) 1.0753; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 1.0667. Further fall is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0765) holds. Fall from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in...
EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9520; (P) 0.9544; (R1) 0.9572; More…. EUR/CHF’s fall from 0.9928 resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained trading below below 61.8% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9928 at 0.9510 will raise the chance of long...
Swiss Franc Rallies Amid Falling Yields and Political Risks
Swiss Franc breaks higher in early US session as benchmark treasury yields in both the US and Europe plummeted. This rise was partly triggered by US retail sales data coming in much weaker than anticipated. Additionally, investor sentiment in Europe remains fragile...
US retail sales rise 0.1% mom in May, ex-auto sales down -0.1% mom
US retail sales rose 0.1% mom to USD 703.1B in May, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Ex-auto sales fell -0.1% mom to 569.0B, worse than expectation of 0.2% mom growth. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.3% mom to USD 649.5B. Ex-auto and gasoline sales rose 0.1% mom to USD 515.5B....
WTI Oil Futures Surge Back to 80
WTI oil futures swiftly recoup June’s lost ground to trade again above 80 Technical signals return to positive area, but there is another barrier nearby Hopes of increased demand in the next quarter caused WTI oil futures to surge back to 80.60, erasing earlier losses...
GBP/USD Eyes UK Inflation – Action Forex
The British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2683 in the European session at the time of writing, down 0.16% on the day. There are no UK events on Tuesday, while the US releases retail sales. On Wednesday, we’ll get a look at UK inflation for...
German ZEW ticks up to 47.5, sentiment and situation stagnate
German ZEW Economic Sentiment ticked up from 47.1 to 47.5 in June, below expectation of 50.0. Current Situation Index fell from -72.3 to -73.8, below expectation of -69.0. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment rose from 47.0 to 51.3, above expectation of 47.2. Current...
Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.6% in May, core at 2.9%
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.6% yoy in May, up from April’s 2.4% yoy. CPI core (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 2.9% yoy, up from prior month’s 2.7% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual inflation rate came from services (+1.83...
Crypto Continues Its Retreat – Action Forex
Market picture In 24 hours, crypto capitalisation fell 2.2% to $2.36 trillion. Bitcoin’s relatively moderate 1% decline contrasts with a much deeper dive in altcoins. Ethereum fell 3.3%, Solana plunged 7.8%, and Dogecoin dropped 9.2%. The main momentum of the decline...
Brent Oil Has Risen in Price: Reliance on Stock Market Demand Has Worked
The commodity market was adjusted moderately on Tuesday morning after the price of Brent crude oil rose by 2% the day before. A barrel of the North Sea variety is at about 84 USD. The main support factor currently is the improving prospects for global demand....
RBA More Alert and Less Certain in its Inflation Fight
The RBA left the cash rate on hold at 4.35%, but their rhetoric suggests the Board is more alert to upside inflation risks. Indeed, the RBA Board appears less certain that inflation is moderating as they’d like and there’s lingering concerns about persistent price...
GBPUSD Falls to a Fresh 1-Month Low
GBPUSD declines to its lowest level since May 17 Momentum indicators ease but remain in positive zones GBPUSD was in a steady recovery following its bounce off the 2024 bottom of 1.2298, with the price violating both the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs)....
Yen Recovers as BoJ’s Ueda Reiterates July Hike Possibility, But Gains Capped by Uncertainty
Japanese Yen had a modest recovery in Asian session, accompanied by an uptick in 10-year JGB yield and Nikkei. This comes as BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda continued to prepare the markets for more tightening ahead, by reiterating that another rate hike in July is a...
US 500 Index Eases After the Climb to New High
US 500 index calms near the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level RSI and Stochastics are flattening The US 500 (cash) index has been moving with weak momentum over the last couple of sessions after the surge towards a new record peak of 5,449.73, holding near the 261.8%...
AUD/USD Mid-Day Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6590; (P) 0.6617; (R1) 0.6643; More... No change in AUD/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.73; (P) 157.50; (R1) 158.23; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rally would remain in favor as long as 154.53 support holds. Break of 158.25 will resume the choppy rise from 151.86 towards 160.20 high. But...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8876; (P) 0.8921; (R1) 0.8946; More…. USD/CHF is still bounded in range above 0.8880 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8883 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implications and bring deeper decline. On...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2640; (P) 1.2702; (R1) 1.2748; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.2859 short term top would target 1.2633 resistance turned support first. Firm break there will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0666; (P) 1.0705; (R1) 1.0743; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on downside for the moment. Fall from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Deeper decline would be seen to 1.0601 low first. Firm break there will...
USD/JPY: Bulls Hold Grip for Retest of Pivotal Fibo Barrier
USDJPY firmed further on Monday and partially offset warning from long upper shadow of Friday’s daily candle, as fresh strength looks for retest of pivotal Fibo resistance at 158.22 (76.4% of 160.19/151.85) which capped Friday’s rally. Firm break here to open way...
Euro Steadies After Market Jitters Subside
The euro is steady on Monday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0714 in the North American session, up 0.10% on the day. French election triggers market turmoil France’s financial markets took a tumble late last week, as investors are nervous about the snap parliamentary...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets A sense of calm returned to European markets for now. Le Pen from the poll-leading Rassemblement National sought to reassure investors on the budgetary front if her party were to win the elections. It may have helped to stop the rout in European/French assets...
RBA Policy Meeting May Be Muted; Aussie Remains Choppy
RBA interest rate expected to remain unchanged Sticky inflation and economy’s uncertainty still a concern Aussie holds in downward channel ahead of Tuesday’s decision at 04:30 GMT Australia’s uncertain economy and sustained inflation The Reserve Bank of Australia...
Soft Retail sales Could Curb Fed Hawks’ Rhetoric
Market ponders the Fed’s stance after a hawkish gathering Retail sales to reveal the strength of domestic demand Dollar on the front foot; could suffer if data weaken this week The May retail sales report will be released on Tuesday 12:30 GMT At last week’s Fed...
EURUSD Battles With 61.8% Fibo
EURUSD drops to a fresh 1-month low after violating SMAs Quickly recoups some losses and challenges 61.8% Fibo Oscillators suggest that bearish forces are strengthening EURUSD has undergone some volatile sessions in the past few days, eventually dipping beneath both...
Aussie Weakens as Market Eyes Upcoming RBA Rate Decision
Australian Dollar declines broadly today, as markets brace for the upcoming RBA rate decision. With the cash rate expected to hold steady at 4.35%, speculation is rife about RBA’s future monetary policy direction. Although the central bank maintains an open stance on...
Australian Dollar Drifting Ahead of RBA Decision
The Australian dollar is steady on Monday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6605 in the European session, down 0.14% on the day. Last week, the Australian dollar rose as much as 1.8% but pared most of these gains. RBA expected to hold rates The Reserve Bank of Australia will...
Gold Price Outlook: Bears Take Early Control as US Dollar Index (DXY) Rises
Gold surrendered Friday’s gains as a retest of $2300 gains momentum. US dollar index (DXY) rises but faces stern resistance at 105.63. Geopolitics remains on the back burner for now, but risks remain. Fundamental Overview and Week Ahead Gold prices began the week on...
SECO slightly upgrades Swiss economic forecasts, but below-average growth persists
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said that Swiss economic forecasts remain largely unchanged, with growth expected to stay below average this year. The Expert Group on Business Cycles projects a modest growth rate of 1.2% for the Swiss economy in 2024,...
Does EURCHF Correction Have Legs?
EURCHF drops to a 4-month low Significant correction over the past 15 days Momentum indicators confirm the bearish pressure EURCHF has been on a freefall since late May with the move picking up pace following the recent European elections and the first ECB rate cut....
Nikkei Index Falls Below 38,000 Points This Month for First Time
According to today’s Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart, the index quote dropped below 38,000 points at Monday’s low, followed by a recovery (shown by an arrow). One of the drivers of the decline was the automotive sector, whose shares led during the downturn. In...
Ethereum Bolstered by Hopes, Bitcoin Waits for a Signal
Market picture The cryptocurrency market has lost almost 5% over the past seven days. It has not given up important support levels but also has no significant drivers to resume growth. Bitcoin lost 4.7% over the week, in unison with the market. Ethereum lost 3%, while...
New Zealand Dollar is Falling
Like other major currencies, the New Zealand dollar is under pressure from the strong US dollar. This development comes after the Federal Reserve’s updated forecasts last week. Stock market expectations point to only one interest rate cut this year, most likely in...
ECB’s Lane confidence on inflation, cautions on interpreting data noise
ECB’s Chief Economist Philip Lane expressed “a lot, a fair amount of confidence” today that Eurozone inflation is on track to return to 2% target by the latter half of next year. In his remarks, Lane highlighted the importance of judiciously interpreting incoming...
Gold Attempts to Erase Latest Slump
Gold falls to its lowest level in a month But recovers some ground, eyeing 50-day SMA Oscillators improve but remain negatively tilted Gold has been experiencing a pullback from its all-time high of 2,450, breaking below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)....
FX option expiries for 17 June 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0670 level. If anything else, that will act as a bit of a defensive layer in limiting downside price action before rolling off. It isn't exactly a technically...
Euro Finds Stability, Markets Anticipates Turbulent Week Ahead
The forex markets are pretty steady in Asian session today, with Euro stabilizing from its previous sharp sell-off. Meanwhile, Dollar and Yen are posting modest gains. In contrast, commodity currencies showed less resilience, and Swiss Franc surrendered some of its...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Hawkish Sentiments of the Fed As expected, the key day of last week was Wednesday, 12 June. After the publication of inflation data in the USA, the dollar came under strong pressure. Fresh figures showed that in May, the overall inflation rate (CPI) in annual...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s sharp decline last week suggests that rise from 0.9252 has already completed at 0.9928 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9928 at 0.9510 will raise the chance of long term down...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3790 last week but retreated since then. Intraday bias remains neutral this week first. Corrective fall from 1.3845 should have completed already. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3662 support holds. Break of 1.3790 will target a retest...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD stayed in range of 0.6575/6713 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF was supported by 0.8883 fibonacci level and recovered. But upside was capped by 0.8987 support turned resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8883 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implications and...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.2859 last week, but subsequent decline argues that rise from 1.2298 has completed already, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.2633 resistance turned support first. Firm break there...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s choppy rise from 151.86 resumed by breaching 157.70 resistance last week. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week. Further rally could be seen to retest 160.20 high. But upside should be limited there, at least on first attempt. On the downside,...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
Euro’s strong decline last week suggests that rebound from 1.0601 has already completed as a correction to 1.0915. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.0601 low first. Firm break there will target channel support at 1.0510 next. On the...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s down trend resumed by breaking through 1.6211 support last week. While downside momentum is a bit unconvincing, there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.6679 to 1.6211 from 1.6418 at 1.6129. Firm...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP fell sharply to 0.8396 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8482 support turned resistance holds. Below 0.8396 will resume larger down trend to 0.8376...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY engaged in sideway trading most of last week but late break of 168.01 support is inline with the case that rise from 164.01 has completed already. Initial bias is back on the downside this week. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 167.41) will extend the...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and edged higher to 201.59, but retreated notably since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 197.18 support holds. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 H MACD,...
Sharp Declines in Euro and European Markets Triggered by French Political Drama
Global financial markets were abuzz with several high-profile events last week, including critical meetings of Fed and BoJ, alongside release of US inflation data. However, it was the escalating political turmoil in France that captured the most attention,...
Housing and Retail Sales Data to Show Canadians Continue to Hold Back
Economic data in the week ahead should show further softening in Canadian (per-person) household spending before the Bank of Canada pivoted to lower interest rates in June. Early reports from regional real estate boards suggested housing markets were in a holding...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Inflation Cools as Summer Begins
Summary United States: Inflation Cools as Summer Begins A bevy of soft inflation data for May fueled optimism that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates at the September FOMC meeting. On Wednesday, the May CPI data showed that consumer prices were unchanged in...
The Weekly Bottom Line: The Data Will Light the Way
U.S. Highlights In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady in the target range of 5.25%-5.5%. FOMC participants now expect fewer rate cuts this year, with the median projection showing just one cut by year-end (previously three)....
Summary 6/17 – 6/21
Monday, Jun 17, 2024 Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024 Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024 Thursday, Jun 20, 2024 Friday, Jun 21, 2024 The post Summary 6/17 – 6/21 appeared first on Action Forex.
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0709; (P) 1.0763; (R1) 1.0793; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.0601 support. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1.1138, as the third leg of the pattern from 1.1274, and...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2732; (P) 1.2770; (R1) 1.2802; More… GBP/USD’s break of 1.2687 support argues that rise from 1.2298 might have completed at 1.2859, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the downside fro 1.2633 resistance turned...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8921; (P) 0.8945; (R1) 0.8962; More…. Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8883 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implications and bring deeper decline. On the upside,...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.84; (P) 156.61; (R1) 157.49; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Choppy rise from 151.86 would continue to retest 160.20 high but strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. On the downside, below 156.57...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets Outright risk-off from the start of trading today. French President Macron’s parliamentary election bet culminated in the current risk climate. The French president’s approval rating hit an air pocket and his Renaissance party is burnt. Nobody, stretching from...
Weekly Focus – Political Uncertainty on the Rise in Europe
This week was dominated by events in the US. The FOMC kept policy rate unchanged at its Wednesday meeting as widely expected. The median of the updated dot plot now signals only one cut for this year, but it remains a close call. While four members expect no cuts,...
Bank of England Preview – Laying the Groundwork for an August Cut
We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% on 20 June, which is in line with consensus and current market pricing. Overall, we expect the MPC to stick to its current communication, priming the markets for a forthcoming start to a...
Week Ahead – RBA, SNB and BoE Next to Secide, CPI and PMI Data Also on Tap
It will be another central-bank-heavy week with the RBA, SNB and BoE None are expected to cut but there’s room for surprises Retail sales will be the highlight in the United States Plenty of other data also on the way, including flash PMIs and UK CPI RBA is in a...
WTI Oil Week Ahead: WTI Eyes $80 a Barrel on Demand Optimism
WTI Oil on course for its best week in over two months. WTI unfazed as OPEC and IEA forecast paint differing demand pictures. WTI eyeing trendline break and psychological $80 a barrel mark. Fundamental Overview and Week in Review WTI oil prices are experiencing a...
RBA Preview: Comforts and Confidence
The RBA Board is expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at next week’s meeting. The recent data-flow will provide some comfort that restrictive policy is bringing inflation back under control, but the path is still uncertain. Vigilance remains the order of the day...
EUR/USD: Extends Steep Fall as Political Uncertainty Sours the Sentiment
EURUSD extends sharp fall into second straight day and trading near the lowest in 1 ½ month low on Friday. Fresh risk aversion on growing political uncertainty in France, with tremors hitting the whole euro-bloc, put the single currency under strong pressure. The pair...
Fed’s Mester urges caution despite positive inflation data
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed cautious optimism in an CNBC interview today, acknowledging the positive trend in the latest May CPI data. “It is welcome to see that inflation is moving back down again,” Mester stated. However, she stressed the need...
Euro Resumes Decline as French Bond Risk Premium Surges Amid Political Turmoil
Euro is once again capturing market attention today as this week’s significant selloff resumes. The steep decline has been driven by rising political tensions in France, as the snap parliamentary election called by President Emmanuel Macron has heightened investor...
German DAX: Torpedoed by Rising Geopolitical Risk Premium in Eurozone
The rising power and influence of the EU’s far-right political parties have spooked European financial markets. A poll has indicated prominent French far-right National Rally party is leading by a significant margin over the incumbent President Macron’s party for the...
EURUSD in a Dramatic Downfall
EURUSD corrects sharply down to 1½-month low; gives up previous gains Technical signals remain bearish; support expected near 1.0650-1.0660 EURUSD continued to sink for the second consecutive day on Friday, reversing entirely its post-US CPI upturn and trimming a...
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6146; (P) 1.6210; (R1) 1.6245; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point, and outlook stays bearish with 1.6418 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.6173 will resume the decline from 1.6742, as the third leg of the...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8399; (P) 0.8428; (R1) 0.8444; More… EUR/GBP’s fall resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current down trend should target 0.8376 projection level next. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.8457...
GBPJPY Bounces to 14-Year High; Eyes on 201 Resistance
GBPJPY stepped on the long-term ascending line at 200 and jumped to a new 14-year high of 201.59 in the BoJ aftermath on Friday with scope to continue its long-term positive trend. The short-term risk is more on the upside than on the downside. Specifically, the...
Eurozone exports rises 14.0% yoy, imports up 1.8% yoy in Apr
Eurozone goods exports rose 14.0% yoy to EUR 247.6B in April. Goods imports rose 1.8% yoy to EUR 232.5B. Trade balance showed EUR 15.0B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 5.8% yoy to EUR 222.89B. In seasonally adjusted term, goods exports rose 3.1% mom to EUR 245.3B....
Japanese Yen Fell to a Six-Week Low after Bank of Japan Ended Its Meeting
The Japanese yen exchange rate paired with the US dollar looks unimpressive by the end of this week. The USD/JPY pair rose to almost 158.00 immediately after the end of the June meeting of the Bank of Japan, which left the interest rate unchanged. Everything went...
GBPJPY bBounces to 14-Year High; Eyes on 201 Resistance
GBPJPY stepped on the long-term ascending line at 200 and jumped to a new 14-year high of 201.59 in the BoJ aftermath on Friday with scope to continue its long-term positive trend. The short-term risk is more on the upside than on the downside. Specifically, the...
USDCAD Remains Bullish With Weak Momentum
USDCAD fails to extend above 1.3785 Stochastics suggest bearish retracement USDCAD is still developing above the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs), which are ready for a bullish crossover, and above the medium-term uptrend line. Technically, the MACD oscillator...
FX option expiries for 14 June 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. But barring any surprise moves, they aren't likely to feature much into play.The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0800-10, which aren't likely to be of much impact. The euro is weighed down by political angst...
BoJ Decision Sends Yen Plummeting as Taper Plan Delayed
The Japanese Yen has taken a significant hit today, losing ground against all major currencies after BoJ refrained from detailing an immediate plan to taper its bond purchases. In the lead-up to the announcement, expectations were high among traders and investors that...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8425; (P) 0.8439; (R1) 0.8459; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen first. Further decline is expected as long as 0.8482 support turned resistance holds. Below 0.8417 will...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8897; (P) 0.8940; (R1) 0.8988; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8883 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implications and bring deeper...
Aussie Shrugs After Strong Employment Data
The Australian dollar has edged lower on Thursday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6674 in the North American session, up 0.14% on the day. The Aussie didn’t show much reaction to today’s solid Australian employment report. Australian employment beats forecasts Australia’s...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.84; (P) 156.61; (R1) 157.49; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 154.53 will turn bias to the downside for 151.86 support and possibly below, as the third leg...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Yesterday’s ‘hawkish’ Fed dots raising governors’ 2024/25 inflation projections, a higher reference for the neutral rate (2.75% ) and indicating only one rate cut this year as the FOMC’s preferred interest rate scenario only limited the big decline in US...
XAU/USD: $2,500 Target Remains in Focus But Consolidation Likely to Precede Fresh Rally
Gold is likely to retest the latest record high and attack psychological $2500 level in coming months, as all key factors that drive the metal’s price remain supportive. Persisting geopolitical tensions and threats of escalation continue to underpin demand, along with...
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Preview: Potential Cut in Bond Buying to Aid Ailing Yen?
Hawkish FOMC adds further pressure on the BoJ as USD/JPY advances. Speculation builds that the BoJ will announce a more comprehensive cut to its bond buying programme. Fundamental Overview: FOMC Recap and BoJ Outlook The Japanese continued its slide this morning as...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2733; (P) 1.2796; (R1) 1.2862; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first but further rally is expected as long as 1.2687 support holds. Above 1.2869 will target 1.2892 resistance. Decisive break there will strengthen the case that...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0745; (P) 1.0799; (R1) 1.0862; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.0915 will resume whole rise from 1.0601. On the downside, break of 1.0718 will resume the fall from 1.0915 instead. In the...
Dollar’s Rebound Stalls Amid Weak PPI and Jobless Claims; Focus Shifts to BoJ
Trading activity slowed notably today as the markets turned relatively quiet. Dollar attempted a rebound from its losses earlier this week but struggled to gain momentum after worse-than-expected PPI and jobless claims data. Despite being one of the weaker performers...
US PPI at -0.2% mom, 2.2% yoy in May
US PPI for final demand fell -0.2% mom in May, below expectation of 0.2% mom rise. PPI goods fell -0.8% mom, largest decline since October 2023. PPI energy fell -4.8% mom. PPI food fell -0.1% mom while PPI ex food and energy rose 0.3% mom. PPI services was unchanged....
US initial jobless claims jump to 242k, vs exp 227k
US initial jobless claims rose 13k to 242k in the week ending June 8, above expectation of 227k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 5k to 222k. Continuing claims rose 30k to 1820k in the week ending June 1. Four-week moving average of continuing claims...
US Dollar Declines as Fed Signals Potential Rate Cut and Inflation Eases
The EUR/USD pair is holding steady around 1.0805 on Thursday, following a surge in volatility the previous evening. The Federal Reserve concluded its meeting with a neutral stance, maintaining the interest rate at 5.25% per annum as anticipated. The Fed’s comments...
WTI Crude Oil Fails to Improve Upside Move
WTI crude finds tough obstacle at 200-day SMA Technical oscillators head south WTI crude oil returned above the medium-term ascending trend line, hitting the strong 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 79.36 after bouncing off the four-month low of 72.46. The...
Nasdaq 100: Minor Melt-Up Sequence May Have Hit a Roadblock
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has given up all its ex-post US CPI intraday gains triggered by losses inflicted on the 10-year US Treasury Note futures. The ongoing weakness seen on the DJIA may act as a drag on the Nasdaq 100. Watch the 19,800 pivotal...
Crypto Growth Derailed – Action Forex
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market failed to get on the growth rails, losing 0.7% in 24 hours to $2.44 trillion, near end-of-day levels on Wednesday. The positive effect of the soft inflation report was erased by the Fed’s comparatively tightening stance, which...
EUR/USD: Remains Constructive Despite More Hawkish Than Expected Powell
EURUSD is consolidating within a narrow range on Thursday morning, following strong rally on Wednesday (up 0.65%), but remains constructive despite Wednesday’s upside rejection and a bull-trap above converged 10/20DMA’s. The single currency rallied on weaker than...
Eurozone industrial production down -0.1% mom in Apr, EU up 0.5% mom
Eurozone industrial production fell -0.1% mom in April, worse than expectation of 0.1% mom growth. Industrial production, decreased by -0.4% for intermediate goods. Production increased by by 0.4% for energy, 0.7% for capital goods, 0.3% for durable consumer goods,...
ECB’s Vasle: Further rate cuts possible this year if data remains favorable
ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle has hinted at the possibility of further rate cuts this year, provided the baseline scenario holds and economic data supports such a move.Speaking to Finance newspaper, Vasle said, “If the baseline scenario is realized and...
AUDUSD: Buying The Dips at the Blue Box Area
In this technical article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of AUDUSD Forex pair , published in members area of the website. As our members know, AUDUSD has recently given us correction against the 0.63618 low. The pair reached our target...
FX option expiries for 13 June 10am New York cut
There are quite a number to take note of for the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered between 1.0775 to 1.0810. Given that price action is also meddling with the key daily moving averages at 1.0788-02 currently, the expiries...
Dollar Stabilizes After FOMC Projections, Eyes on US PPI and Jobless Claims
While Dollar had a sharp decline following US consumer inflation data overnight, the selloff was short-lived. The greenback stabilized and recovered after FOMC projections indicated that only one rate cut is likely this year. Stock and bond markets showed little...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.83; (P) 157.12; (R1) 157.43; More… USD/JPY drops sharply in early US session but stays in range of 154.53/157.70 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 154.53 will turn bias to the downside for 151.86 support and...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8955; (P) 0.8974; (R1) 0.8996; More…. USD/CHF falls sharply after rejection by 0.8987 support turned resistance and 55 4H EMA. But it;s staying above 0.8880/3 support zone so far. Intraday bias remain neutral first. On the downside, sustained...
(FED) Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been modest...
FOMC projects one rate cut this year, no member expects another hike
Fed left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as widely expected. The new economic projections are slightly on the hawkish side, indicating that the majority of FOMC expects only one rate cut this year. The neutral rate was also raised. But investors could be...
AUD/USD: Australian Dollar Rallies 1.35% as US Inflation Eases Below Expectations
Australian dollar was one of the top gainers among major currencies on Wednesday, after weaker than expected US CPI data revived hopes disinflation is back to play and added to doves advocating for September Fed rate cut. AUDUSD pair advanced 1.35% after release of...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0715; (P) 1.0745; (R1) 1.0769; More…. EUR/USD’s strong rebound and break of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0812) argues that pull back form 1.0915 has completed at 1.0718. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.0915 resistance first. Firm break there will...
EUR/AUD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6217; (P) 1.6277; (R1) 1.6318; More… EUR/AUD’s break of 1.6211 support confirms resumption of decline from 1.6742, as the third leg of the correction from 1.7062. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.6679 to 1.6211 from...
US: Inflationary Pressures Cool More Than expected in May
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was flat in May, coming in below the consensus forecast calling for a modest gain of 0.1% month-on-month (m/m). On a twelve-month basis, CPI edged lower by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3%. Energy prices dipped by 2.0% last month, largely...
US Dollar Index: Dollar Falls Sharply on Softer than Expected US May Inflation Numbers
The US dollar fell across the board in immediate reaction to softer than expected US May inflation numbers, which revived hopes for Fed rate cut in September. US m/m consumer prices were flat in May after 0.3% increase in April and annualized rose by 3.3% last month,...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets US May CPI numbers served as an appetizer going into tonight’s FOMC meeting. Both headline (flat) and core (+0.2% m/m) inflation missed expectations for a 0.1% and 0.3% rise respectively. That resulted in slower y/y readings of 3.3% and 3.4% with the latter...
After Macron’s Election Gamble, Is Political Risk a New Headwind for the Euro?
Snap elections in France spur panic in euro and French stock market Doubts about Germany’s coalition add to euro’s woes Is political instability about to become a persistent risk for the euro? Europe steers to the right Financial markets don’t usually pay so much...
EURUSD Recoups Losses and Bearish Gap after US CPI
EURUSD posts gains above 1.0800 RSI crosses above 50 level EURUSD is extending its rebound off 1.0740 after US inflation data that was lower than expected. The pair jumped above the 50- and the 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) as well as the 1.0800 round number....
Dollar Plummets on Softer Inflation Data Ahead of Crucial FOMC Decision
Dollar took a significant hit in early US session, following the release of weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data. A particularly notable point is that headline CPI remained flat for the month, a scenario not seen since November last year. Annual core CPI also...
US CPI at 0.0% mom, 3.3% yoy in May, below expectations
US CPI was flat at 0.0% mom in May below expectation of 0.2% mom. CPI core (all items less food and energy)rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Food prices rose 0.1% mom, while energy prices fell -2.0% mom. For the 12-month period, CPI slowed from 3.4% yoy to...
Gold (XAU/USD) Vulnerable Heading Into US CPI and FOMC Releases
Gold struggles for direction ahead of key US data releases as geopolitics take a backseat. People’s Bank of China (PBoC) pauses gold buying following 18-Month spree. Downside momentum appears to be building as buyers lack conviction. Fundamental Overview Gold has...
GBP/USD: Cable Remains Constructive Despite Weak UK GDP Numbers, All Eyes on US CPI/Fed
Cable ticked higher in European trading on Wednesday, showing no significant reaction on overall negative UK economic data (GDP was flat in April/construction and manufacturing output fell sharply) as traders await release of US CPI data and signals from Fed at the...
Euro Hits Monthly Low Amid Political Instability in France
The EUR/USD pair declined to 1.0740 on Wednesday, nearing the month’s low. This downward movement is primarily driven by the political instability in France following the significant developments in the European Parliament elections. French President Emmanuel Macron...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8440; (P) 0.8456; (R1) 0.8472; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside. Current down trend should target 0.8376 projection level next. On the upside, above 0.8446 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.24; (P) 168.83; (R1) 169.37; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 168.01 support will strengthen the case that rise from 164.31 has completed at 170.78 already. Intraday bias will...
NZDUSD Recoups Post-NFP Slide – Action Forex
NZDUSD surges to its highest since March 8 But undergoes a setback after strong NFP report Oscillators ease but remain in positive zones NZDUSD has been in an aggressive uptrend following its 2024 bottom of 0.5851 in mid-April, posting a fresh three-month high last...
Crypto Market Took a Break from Support
Market picture The crypto market cap lost another 0.9% over the last 24 hours, pulling back to $2.44 trillion and extending losses from Friday’s peak to 8%. Since the end of the day on Tuesday, market volatility has noticeably decreased as more traders are taking a...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 199.77; (P) 200.09; (R1) 200.49; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 200.72 will resume larger up trend. Nevertheless, break of 197.18 will turn bias to the downside and extend the...
FX option expiries for 12 June 10am New York cut
There are a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The ones for AUD/USD will matter more for the session ahead at least. They are layered between 0.6615 to 0.6630 and should keep price action more contained before we get to the main events later...
Risk-On Sentiment Holds; Key US Inflation and Fed Announcements Loom
The forex markets are predominantly range-bound today as traders eagerly anticipate two pivotal events: US Consumer Price Index release and Federal Reserve’s economic projections. These announcements have the potential to trigger significant market volatility, given...
Crypto Nosedive – Action Forex
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market spent Monday in a very narrow range but started Tuesday with a violent sell-off, losing over 2.8% in 24 hours to $2.47 trillion. Bitcoin is retreating at the same pace as the market as a whole, while Ethereum is down 3.5%. Top...
Alarming UK Labour Market Data
Unexpected weakness in the UK labour market could signal an important turnaround in the economy and raise the urgency of monetary easing. The short-term impact on the Pound has been relatively limited, but the currency market has now adopted a wait-and-see approach...
Euro Under Pressure as Macron Calls Snap Election
The euro is down for a third straight day and has dropped 1.3% since Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0731 in the European session, down 0.32% on the day. There are no releases out of the US or the eurozone today. It was a busy weekend in Europe, as voters went to...
EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8440; (P) 0.8456; (R1) 0.8472; More… EUR/GBP’s decline continues to as low as 0.8418 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.8376 projection level next. On the upside, above 0.8446 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and...
Aussie Edges Lower as Business Confidence Slips
The Australian dollar has declined by 0.28% on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6600 in the European session, down 0.16% on the day. On the data calendar, Australian NAB business confidence was weak and there are no economic releases out of the US. Australian business...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.57; (P) 156.33; (R1) 157.52; More… USD/JPY retreats ahead of 157.70 resistance and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 157.70 will resume the whole rise from 151.86 and target 160.20 high. Nevertheless, break of 154.53 will turn...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8952; (P) 0.8969; (R1) 0.8982; More…. USD/CHF is still bounded in range of 0.8880/8987 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 0.8987 support turned resistance will argue that correction from 0.9223 has completed, after...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2700; (P) 1.2719; (R1) 1.2749; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral as sideway trading continues. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.2680 support will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Euro weakness remains name of the game in the wake of French President Macron’s snap election call as his coalition got whacked in EU elections. ECB comments played a role as well. EUR/USD set a new sell-off low around 1.0730 from starting levels near 1.0775....
Will Bank of Japan Hint at a July Hike?
Investors see decent chance for BoJ hike in July But struggling economy complicates the policy outlook Report on bond buying sets the hawkish bar even higher The Bank decides on Friday at 03:00 GMT Obstacles in the road for the next BoJ hike At its latest gathering on...
USD/JPY: Remains Constructive and Eyes US Inflation and Fed Verdict for Fresh Direction Signals
USDJPY remains constructive and probing above 157 barrier (the upper borderline of triangular consolidation and Fibo 61.8% of 160.19/151.85 bear-leg), but ranges are narrowing ahead of key releases this week – US inflation report and Fed rate decision, both due on...
US: Small Business Optimism Index Improves in May
NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.8 points to 90.5 in May, beating market expectations for a flat reading of 89.7. Half of the ten subcomponents improved on the month, three deteriorated, and two remained unchanged. The improving categories included...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0739; (P) 1.0760; (R1) 1.0787; More…. EUR/USD’s fall from 1.0915 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. This decline is seen as another falling leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1274. Further decline should be seen to retest...
Euro’s Brief Respite Ends, Renewed Selloff Driven by French Political Woes
Euro continues to be under significant pressure due to increasing political uncertainty in France. President Emmanuel Macron’s call for a snap election has heightened fiscal consolidation risks, with Moody’s describing this development as “credit negative.” Investor...
EURJPY Trades Sideways Ahead of Key Events
EURJPY is hovering below the recent 171.56 high Yen failed to benefit from Monday’s euro weakness Momentum indicators point to weakening bullish pressure EURJPY is trading sideways today as the yen has failed to benefit from the euro’s weakness following Sunday’s...
ECB’s Lane: Not pre-committing to a particular rate path
In a speech today, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane noted that the central bank’s baseline projections reflect the market yield curve and anticipate “a set of rate cuts” in 2024 and 2025. He noted that with a clearly restrictive deposit facility rate of 3.75%, ECB...
Key Factors Influencing AUDUSD: Analysis and Trading Scenarios
Bearish scenario: Sell below 0.6597 with TP1: 0.6587, TP2: 0.6579, and TP3: 0.6558, with an S.L. above 0.6611 or at least 1% of account capital. Bullish scenario: Buy above 0.6611 with TP1: 0.6626 and TP2: 0.6646, with an S.L. below 0.6597 or at least 1% of account...
Gold: Bears Taking a Breather ahead of US CPI Data – FOMC Policy Decision
Gold price edged lower in early trading on Tuesday, following Monday’s limited consolidation of nearly 4% drop on Friday. Near-term outlook remains bearishly aligned after a massive loss last Friday, sparked by strong US jobs data and reports that China’s central bank...
GBP/USD Shrugs as UK Unemployment Rises, GDP Next
The British pound is drifting on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2720 in the European session at the time of writing, down 0.08% on the day. The UK released the May employment report earlier today. Next up is GDP on Wednesday, with a market estimate of 0% m/m for...
Brent Crude Oil Stabilises Around 81.50 USD Amid Demand Optimism
Brent crude oil is holding steady at 81.50 USD per barrel on Tuesday, following a significant surge of over 2.5% the previous day. The price increase was driven by optimistic market expectations about fuel demand this coming summer and news that the US government is...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 199.22; (P) 199.64; (R1) 200.33; More… GBP/JPY is staying in range below 200.72 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 197.28 will strengthen the case that rise from 191.34 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the...
ECB’s Villeroy downplays month-to-month inflation noises
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau highlighted today at a conference that month-to-month inflation data will be volatile due to base effects, particularly related to energy prices. He cautioned that this “noise” in the data is not very...
FX option expiries for 11 June 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. That speaks to the lack of interest in price levels for today mostly. The main events in markets will only kick off tomorrow, so there is not much appetite to really chase anything until then. And that is...
Aussie Down on Risk Sentiment and Business Confidence, Yen Also Soft
Australian Dollar is trading broadly lower today, primarily due to selloff in stocks in Hong Kong and China as markets reopened after holiday. This downward pressure is compounded by the decline in Australian business confidence, which turned negative. ANZ has become...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.59; (P) 199.20; (R1) 200.01; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 197.28 will strengthen the case that rise from 191.34 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 195.02...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0768; (P) 1.0835; (R1) 1.0870; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside at this point. Rebound from 1.0601 might have completed at 1.0915 already. Fall from there could be another falling leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1274....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2688; (P) 1.2750; (R1) 1.2784; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. . Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.2680 support will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8906; (P) 0.8940; (R1) 0.8998; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, firm break of 0.8987 support turned resistance will argue that correction from 0.9223 has completed, after drawing support from...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets Elections for the European Parliament this time didn’t pass unnoticed on European markets. They clearly left investors with quite a degree of unease. The ‘gamble’ of French President Macron to call snap elections in an attempt to block the ascent of the...
BoE Stays Quiet But Data Could Speak Volumes
BoE stuck between strong US data and the ECB rate cut Labour market data could support August rate cut expectations All eyes on average earnings growth Could the pound maintain its recent gains? BoE remains on the sidelines While the ECB announced its first rate cut...
Fed Pivot Less Likely After Strong NFP, Focus on CPI Report and Dot Plot
A dovish pivot by the Fed is looking less likely at the June meeting Will Fed officials flag two or just one rate cut after strong jobs data? CPI report will also be crucial on Wednesday (12:30 GMT) Statement due at 18:00 GMT will be followed by press conference at...
US Indices: Something for Optimists
The US indices, S&P500 and Nasdaq100, closed Wednesday at record highs, taking a decisive step up, adding over 1.1% and 2%, respectively. The Dow Jones index lagged, adding just 0.25% for the day and is 3% off all-time highs. The Nasdaq-100 and S&P500...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.57; (P) 156.33; (R1) 157.52; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 157.70 will resume the whole rise from 151.86 and target 160.20 high. Nevertheless, break of 154.53 will turn bias to the downside...
Euro Staying Pressured Under Pressure Amid Yield Volatility
As US session begins, Euro continues to face significant downward pressure, largely influenced by political developments in France. The call for a snap election following the far-right National Rally party’s gains in the EU election has sparked concerns among...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 169.14; (P) 169.79; (R1) 170.52; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 168.01 support will strengthen the case that rise from 164.31 has completed at 170.78 already. Intraday bias will be back on the...
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6348; (P) 1.6384; (R1) 1.6458; More… EUR/AUD retreated sharply after edging higher to 1.6418 ans intraday bias remains neutral. . On the downside, firm break of 1.6211 support will resume the whole decline from 1.6742, as the third leg of the...
Euro Falls to Four-Week Low: Politicians to Blame
EUR/USD plummeted below 1.0800 and is currently hovering around 1.0796 on Monday morning. This development came amid heightened political tensions in France. President Emmanuel Macron called for early elections on Sunday in the wake of his party’s crushing defeat and...
ECB’s Nagel urges caution on rate cuts
In a speech today, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel stressed the importance of caution in making further interest rate cuts, citing ongoing economic uncertainty and persistent inflation pressures. Nagel remarked, “I don’t see us on a mountain top from which...
US Dollar Index: Continues to Fly on Growing Wxpectations
Dollar continues to fly on growing expectations that the Fed will stay in higher for longer rate mode The dollar index extends strong rally on Monday, after advancing 0.8% on Friday and started the week with gap higher opening. Upbeat May NFP numbers on Friday added...
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9670; (P) 0.9693; (R1) 0.9708; More…. EUR/CHF’s fall from 0.9928 resumed today and intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9563 support. Decisive break there will argue that whole rise from 0.9252 has completed, and bring deeper fall to 61.8%...
Eurozone Sentix rises to 0.3, recovery continues but lacks momentum
In June, Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved to 0.3 from -3.6, exceeding the expected -1.9. This marks the eighth consecutive monthly increase and the highest reading since February 2022. Current Situation Index also rose for the eighth month in a row,...
Headwinds Knocked Down Bitcoin & Ethereum
Market picture The crypto market is losing about 4.5% from its peak on Friday, having reversed to the downside after news positive for the dollar. Another batch of labour market figures well above expectations has raised doubts that the Fed will soon follow the ECB...
Gold Could Be Poised for a Continuation Lower
Gold violates bullish structure; prints a head and shoulders pattern Short-term risk is negative; confirmation signal awaited below 2,285 Gold has stabilized near May’s floor of 2,285 after losing more than 3.0% on Friday to mark its biggest daily loss in two years....
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8481; (P) 0.8501; (R1) 0.8512; More… EUR/GBP’s strong break of 0.8491 support confirms resumption of larger down trend. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8376 projection level next. On the upside, break of 0.8539 resistance is needed to...
FX option expiries for 10 June 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0775 level. It's not one that holds any technical significance, so I wouldn't attach too much importance to the expiry level. The pair opened today with a gap lower...
Euro Tumbles Amid Political Uncertainty, Market Eyes FOMC Dot Plot and US CPI This Week
In holiday-thinned Asian trading today, Euro’s sharp decline was the focal point. Investors’ reaction to European Parliament election results was overwhelmingly negative. The far-right’s significant gains have sparked concerns, driving the common currency through key...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Who Controls the Financial Market It is clear that interest rates rule the markets, not only in terms of actual changes but also regarding expectations about the timing and magnitude of future changes. From spring 2022 to mid-2023, the focus was on raising...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: G7 Central Banks Ease into Summer with Rate Cuts
Summary United States: July Cut Bites the Dust; September Hanging on Edge of Its Seat The strong job gain and rebound in average hourly earnings in May reaffirm our expectation that a rate cut remains some time away and is increasingly dependent on a few slower...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Labor Market Resilience Highlights Global Policy Rate Divergence
U.S. Highlights The U.S. economy added 272k jobs in May, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0%. The ISM Purchasing Managers’ Indexes showed manufacturing activity continued to contract in May, while services activity returned to growth. Central banks in Canada...
Summary 6/10 – 6/14
Monday, Jun 10, 2024 Tuesday, Jun 11, 2024 Wednesday, Jun 12, 2024 Thursday, Jun 13, 2024 Friday, Jun 14, 2024 The post Summary 6/10 – 6/14 appeared first on Action Forex.
Market Awaits NFP Data: Euro/Dollar Consolidates
At the end of the week, the US dollar is hovering around an eight-week low against the euro, but trading activity remains subdued. Everyone is conserving energy ahead of this evening’s May employment data from the US. These reports are expected to provide more insight...
Crypto Market Quiet – Action Forex
Market picture The crypto market capitalisation remained almost unchanged overnight at $2.63 trillion, showing a sharp decline in volatility. Bitcoin settled near the $71K level (+0.2%), while Ethereum settled near $3800 (-0.9 %). Prices of top altcoins changed...
GOLD (XAUUSD) Elliott Wave: Forecasting the Path
Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of GOLD (XAUUSD) , published in members area of the website. As our members know, GOLD ended cycle from the 2314.99 low as 5 waves structure. The commodity is...
US NFP grows 272k, average hourly earnings rises 0.4% mom
US non-farm payroll employment grew 272k in May, well above expectation of 180k. That’s also higher than the average monthly gain of 232k over the prior 12 months. Unemployment rate ticked up from 3.9% to 4.0%, above expectation of 3.9%. Labor force participation rate...
Canada’s Unemployment Rate Continued to Rise in May, as Job Gains Lag Population Growth
The Canadian labour market geared down from its April hiring surge, adding a modest 27k new positions in May. The gain was entirely in part-time jobs (+62k), while full-time employment declined (-36k). The unemployment rate continued its upward trend in May. The...
US: Payrolls Surge in May, While Unemployment Rate Ticks Up to 28-month High of 4.0%
Non-farm employment surged by 272k in May, well ahead of the consensus forecast calling for a more moderate gain of 185k. Job gains in the two prior months were revised slightly lower, subtracting a combined 15k from the previously reported figures. Private payrolls...
Fed Set to Hold Rates as Inflation and Other Indicators Show Mixed Signals
Wednesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be in focus after the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank cut rates the week before. The Fed is not expected to follow suit—at least not right now. We expect U.S. CPI...
Weekly Focus – ECB in No Rush to Commit to Further Ccuts
The ECB delivered the widely anticipated first 25bp rate cut but kept its forward-looking guidance vague. Lagarde noted there was a ‘strong likelihood’ the ECB would dial back the restrictiveness of their monetary policy going forward but was not ready to pre-commit...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8874; (P) 0.8911; (R1) 0.8930; More…. USD/CHF recovers after another take on 0.8883 fibonacci level but stays below 0.8987 support turned resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Strong rebound from current level, followed by firm break of...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.19; (P) 155.81; (R1) 156.26; More…. USD/JPY rebounds notably in early US session but stays below 157.70 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 157.70 will resume the whole rise from 151.86 and target 160.20...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2766; (P) 1.2788; (R1) 1.2812; More….. GBP/USD dips notably in early US session but stays above 1.2693 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.2693 will turn bias back to...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0867; (P) 1.0884; (R1) 1.0907; More… EUR/USD dips notably in early US session but stays above 1.0788 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.0788 will argue that rebound...
Strong NFP Report Propels Dollar and Drags Risk Sentiment
Dollar rebounds broadly in early US session following stronger-than-expected employment data. Despite a slight uptick in unemployment rate, robust headline job growth and wage increases highlighted the US job market’s continued tightness. This suggests that Fed should...
Canada employment grows 26.7, unemployment rate up to 6.2%
Canada’s employment grew 26.7k in May slightly above expectation of 24.8k. Part-time employment rose 62k while full-time jobs fell -36k. Unemployment rate ticked up from 6.1% to 6.2%, matched expectations. Average hourly wages increased 5.1% yoy, up from April’s 4.7%...
EURUSD Struggles to Close Above 1.0900
EURUSD constrained below May’s barrier of 1.0894 Technical signals reflect uncertainty Sellers could take control below 1.0830 Despite a false bullish breakout to 1.0915 earlier this week, EURUSD has been struggling to close above May’s bar of 1.0894. From a technical...
SILVER (XAGUSD) Buying the Dips at the Blue Box Area
Hello fellow traders. In this technical article, we’re going to take a look into the Elliott Wave charts of SILVER (XAGUSD), exclusively presented in the members’ area of our website. As our members know SILVER has recently made pull back that made clear 3 waves down...
USD/JPY Steady Despite Soft Household Spending
The Japanese yen is calm on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.50, down 0.06% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s household spending slips Japan’s economic activity has been sluggish and household spending, a key driver of economic...
Week Ahead – Fed and BoJ Decide on Monetary Policy
US CPI data and Fed to determine the dollar’s fate Will the BoJ signal that another rate hike is looming? Pound traders await UK employment and GDP numbers RBA hike bets shrink ahead of AU jobs and China CPI data Mind the dots With US inflation resuming its downtrend...
Canadian Dollar Eyes Can., US Job Data
The Canadian dollar has had a relatively quiet week and has ticked higher on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3683, up 0.10%. We could see stronger movement from the pair in the North American session, when both the US and Canada release the...
USD/CHF: At a Multi-Week Low and Cracking Key Supports ahead US Jobs Data
USDCHF stands at the back foot and hit new multi-week low early Friday, as markets await release of US jobs report for May. Recent bear-leg from 0.9158 (May 24 lower top) has found solid support at 0.8893/83 zone (200DMA / Fibo 38.2% of 0.8332/0.9224 rally) which...
USDCHF Posts More Than 2-month Low
USDCHF finds strong obstacle at 200-day SMA MACD endorses negative momentum; RSI near oversold region USDCHF plunged to a new more than two-month low of 0.8879 today but has found support at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in the 0.8895 area. The pair is...
Euro Shrugs as ECB Lowers Rates to 3.75%
The euro is drifting on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0892 in the European session, up 0.04% on the day. We could see some movement from the euro in the North American session, with the release of US nonfarm payrolls. ECB cuts, but no commitments to continue The ECB...
FX option expiries for 7 June 10am New York cut
There are a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.Again, they are for EUR/USD and layered between 1.0875 through to 1.0900. Given that markets are largely waiting on the US jobs report later, the expiries here will help to act as goalposts in keeping...
Sluggish Forex Markets on Hold for Direction from US Non-Farm Payrolls
Forex markets remain directionless as the week’s highly anticipated central bank activities. The rate cuts by both BoC and ECB failed to provide the expected catalysts for significant currency movements. Neither Canadian Dollar nor Euro managed to break out of their...
Crypto Takes its Time – Action Forex
Market picture The cryptocurrency market decided to storm the local highs set almost two months ago. However, the growth has not yet developed, and some players rushed to fix profits quickly despite the positive sentiment in the US stock markets. Bitcoin is trading...
ETHUSD Consolidates as Advance Pauses
ETHUSD posts fresh 2-month high following ETF approval But fails to extend its rally as bulls lift foot off the gas Momentum indicators ease from overbought conditions ETHUSD (Ethereum) had been on the rise after claiming the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in...
GBP/USD: Extended Consolidation Likely to Precede Fresh Push Higher
Cable is consolidating under new multi-week high (1.2817), with near-term action underpinned by rising 10DMA (1.2758) and looking for fresh push higher and attack at 2024 high (1.2893). Daily moving averages in full bullish configuration and with multiple bull-crosses...
US initial jobless claims rises to 229k vs exp 215k
US initial jobless claims rose 8k to 229k in the week ending May 25, above expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -750 to 222k. Continuing claims rose 2k to 1792k in the week ending May 25. Four-week moving average of continuing claims...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.01; (P) 155.75; (R1) 156.86; More…. No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 157.70 resistance holds. Fall from there is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20. On...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8901; (P) 0.8925; (R1) 0.8959; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 0.8987 support turned resistance, will suggest that correction from 0.9223 has...
ECB Review: Cutting and Keeping
Today, the ECB decided to cut its three main policy rates by 25bp, which leaves the key policy rate at 3.75%. This cut follows a 9-month period with unchanged policy rates on the back of the rapid hiking cycle since mid-2022. The rate cut was widely expected and thus...
US Dollar Index Needs to Hold Above 104
US dollar index pauses downleg near important support trendline Technical signals are uncertain; sellers wait below 104 The US dollar index is trading at an attractive level around the protective trendline that joins the lows from December 2023 and March 2024 near...
European Central Bank Kicks Off Its Rate Cut Cycle
Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) today joined the growing group of advanced economy central banks that have begun their monetary easing cycles, lowering its Deposit Rate by 25 bps to 3.75%. ECB policymakers cited the past drop of inflation and the improving...
ECB Starts Cuts Earlier and May Move Faster Than Fed
The European Central Bank cut all three of its key interest rates by 25 points, which is in line with market expectations. The ECB has kept rates unchanged for the past nine months and tightened policy from July 2022 to September 2023, raising rates by a combined 450...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets After the Swiss National Bank (March), the Swedish Riksbank (May) and the Bank of Canada (yesterday), the ECB today is the next in line among central banks from developed economies to reduce policy restriction. It cut its policy rates by 25bps, bringing the...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0851; (P) 1.0872; (R1) 1.0889; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0788 support holds. Break of 1.0915 will resume the rally from 1.0601 to 61.8% projection of 1.0601 to...
Euro Holds Steady After ECB Rate Cut
Following ECB’s decision to lower interest rates by 25 bps, a move that aligned with market expectations, Euro remained relatively steady within its near term trading range. ECB President Christine Lagarde, speaking at the post-meeting press conference, deliberately...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2763; (P) 1.2779; (R1) 1.2803; More….. Outlook in GBP/USD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. As long as 1.2693 support holds, further rally is in favor. Above 1.2816 will resume the rally from 1.2298 to 1.2892 resistance next. On...
Monetary policy decisions – Action Forex
The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Based on an updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, it is now appropriate to...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.69; (P) 169.36; (R1) 170.35; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Current development suggests that rebound from 164.31 has completed at 170.81. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 170.87 resistance holds....
EUR/USD: Bulls Hold Grip Ahead of Key Event – ECB Policy Decision
The Euro edged higher on Thursday morning and partially reversed a two-day pullback from new multi-week high (1.0915), but today’s action was so far choppy and lacking direction, as traders await the verdict from the ECB later today. The European Central Bank...
EURGBP Tests a Key Support Area
EURGBP edges higher today ahead of crucial ECB meeting Strong downside pressure in place despite UK elections being in the spotlight Momentum indicators are mostly mixed at this juncture EURGBP is trading higher today, a tad above its lowest level since August 2022,...
GER 40 Index in Positive Mood Ahead of ECB Rate Decision
German 40 index strives to exit bearish formation before a widely expected rate cut Short-term risk skewed to the upside, but confirmation signal could come above 18,672 The German 40 index started Thursday’s session on a positive note, aiming to extend its latest...
Gold Prices Reach 2368 USD Amid Speculation of Fed Rate Cuts
Gold prices climbed to 2368 USD per troy ounce on Thursday, continuing the upward momentum for the second session. This surge comes as market expectations adjust to the likelihood of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, fuelled by recent employment data....
Eurozone retail sales down -0.5% mom in Apr, EU falls -0.6% mom
Eurozone retail sales volume fell -0.5% mom in April, worse than expectation of -0.2% mom. Sales volume decreased for food, drinks, tobacco by 0.5%, for non-food products (except automotive fuel) by 0.1%, and for automotive fuel in specialised stores by 2.2%. EU...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.08; (P) 198.92; (R1) 200.48; More…. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Current development suggests that rise from 191.34 has completed at 200.72 after rejection by 200.53. On the downside, break of 197.18 will resume the...
FX option expiries for 6 June 10am New York cut
There are a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.Once again, they are for EUR/USD and this time layered at 1.0850-60 on the bottom end and at the 1.0900 level at the top end. The expiries are likely to keep price action more contained, all before we...
Post-BoC Selloff Short-Lived for Canadian Dollar, Euro Eyes Upcoming ECB Meeting
Canadian Dollar remains the weakest performer for the week at this point. Yet, losses is so far contained, with the recovery after the brief selloff following BoC’s rate cut overnight. While further cuts are anticipated within the year, the likelihood of another...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2737; (P) 1.2777; (R1) 1.2810; More….. Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.2693 support holds. Above 1.2816 will resume the rally from 1.2298 to 1.2892 resistance...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.13; (P) 155.31; (R1) 156.07; More…. Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 157.70 resistance holds. Fall from there is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20. On...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8867; (P) 0.8919; (R1) 0.8954; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with 4H MACD crossed above signal line. Strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 0.8987 support turned resistance, will suggest that correction from...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0853; (P) 1.0885; (R1) 1.0910; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment, as consolidation continues below 1.0915. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0788 support holds. Break of 1.0915 will resume the rally from 1.0601 to...
Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points
The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4¾%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 4¾%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The global economy grew by about 3% in the first quarter of 2024, broadly...
US ISM services rises to 53.8, activity/production surges
US ISM Services PMI jumped from 49.4 to 53.8 in May, well above expectation of 51.0. Looking at some details, business activity/production rose sharply from 50.9 to 61.2, highest since November 2022. New orders rose from 52.2. to 54.1. Employment rose from 45.9 to...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The US 10-yr yield tested 4.31% support after a small miss in May ADP employment change. The US economy added 152k jobs (vs 175k expected) with April figures marginally downwardly revised to 188k (from 192k). The deviation wasn’t big enough to trigger a strong...
Gold: Moonshot to $2800 or Dive Below $2000?
Gold volatility has fallen markedly in recent days as gold traders consider their next move, while many commodities are in a corrective decline. In May, the gold price climbed towards $2450, above the peaks of April, but failed to consolidate near all-time highs....
Could Stronger US Data Force a Fed Rate Cut?
Markets crave weaker US data to support their rate cut expectations Strong data this week could cause an acute market reaction The Fed might find it easier to act if financial stability is under threat The key question in the market participants’ minds is when the Fed...
Bank of Canada Cuts Its Policy Rate to 4.75%!
The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate to 4.75% (from 5.0%), while stating that it will continue with Quantitative Tightening (QT). The Bank spoke confidently about the economy, stating “economic growth resumed in the first quarter of 2024 after stalling in the...
BoC cuts rate to 4.75%, signals confidence in inflation control
BoC cuts overnight rate by 25 bps to 4.75%, as anticipated. The central bank stated that recent data has bolstered confidence that inflation will continue to move towards 2% target, despite ongoing risks to the inflation outlook. BoC emphasized its close monitoring of...
AUDCAD Consolidates Above Key Support Zone
AUDCAD is trading sideways, above upside channel RSI and MACD corroborate the lack of momentum A break above 0.9125 could shift the bias to the upside A dip below 0.9000 may only confirm a larger correction AUDCAD has been trading in a sideways manner since May 15,...
Subdued Trading Continues as Markets Shrug US ADP Disappointment
Trading in the forex markets is subdued US session gets underway, with weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP private job data failing to stir significant movement in the Dollar. Despite the slowdown in job gains and pay growth, the job market remains robust. US futures are...
US ADP employment roses 152k, below expectation 175k
US ADP private employment grew 152k in May, below expectation of 175k increase. By sector, goods-producing jobs rose 3k while services-providing jobs rose 149k. By establishment size, small companies lose -10k jobs. Medium companies added 79k while large companies...
EUR/USD to Hold Below 1.09 Given the Risk of Euro Weakness
Markets The three-day Treasury rally morphed into a four-day advance yesterday. The common theme is some worry on (US) growth momentum. It all started last Thursday with downward revisions to Q1 GDP data (especially consumption). Slightly disappointing spending data...
AUD/USD and NZD/USD Could Continue Higher
AUD/USD is correcting gains from the 0.6700 zone. NZD/USD is showing positive signs and might attempt a fresh increase above 0.6200. Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar started a downside correction from 0.6700 against the US...
USDJPY Recoups Losses After Bounce Off Rising Line
USDJPY heads north with first resistance at 20-day SMA RSI and Stochastics confirm upside movement USDJPY has reversed back up again after the strong rebound off the medium-term uptrend line and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), meeting the 23.6% Fibonacci...
NZDUSD Extends Recovery to Fresh Highs
NZDUSD posts an almost 3-month high on Tuesday But the risk of an impending correction increases Oscillators approach overbought conditions NZDUSD has been in an aggressive uptrend following its 2024 bottom of 0.5851 in mid-April. On Tuesday, the pair stormed to its...
XAU/USD: Key Economic Events This Week Eyed for Fresh Direction Signals
Gold price edges higher early Wednesday, bouncing off the floor of near term range and remaining without clear direction as markets await fresh signals from key economic events this week. Conflicting technical indicators on daily chart contribute to near term sideways...
Eurozone PPI down -1.0% mom, -5.7% yoy in Apr
Eurozone PPI fell -1.0% mom in April, below expectation of -0.5% mom. Over the 12-month period, PPI fell -5.7% yoy, below expectation -5.1% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices increased by 0.3% for intermediate goods, 0.2% for capital goods, 0.2% for...
UK PMI services finalized at 52.9, expansion slows, price pressures ease
The latest PMI data from the UK indicates a deceleration in the service sector for May, with the Services PMI dropping to 52.9 from April’s 55.0, marking the slowest growth rate since November. The Composite PMI, which aggregates both services and manufacturing, also...
Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 52.2, a 12-month high
Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 53.2 in May, slightly down from April’s 53.3. PMI Composite was finalized at 52.2, up from prior month’s 51.7, a 12-month high. Also, business confidence surged to 27-month high. Inflation rates cooled but remained above...
FX option expiries for 5 June 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered between 1.0855 through to 1.0900 on the day. The expiries there are likely to keep price action more contained, before we get to the US ADP employment...
Weak Loonie Anticipates BoC, Struggling Dollar Seeks Support from ADP and ISM Services
Forex trading in Asian session today was relatively muted, with market participants holding off on major moves in anticipation of impending key events. The spotlight is on BoC, with traders eagerly awaiting its rate decision. There is considerable speculation on...
GBPUSD Surges to Fresh 2-Month High
GBPUSD advances to its highest level since March 13 But the advance starts to look overstretched Momentum indicators approach overbought conditions GBPUSD has been in a steady recovery following its bounce off the 2024 bottom of 1.2298, with the price violating both...
