Forex
FX option expiries for 10 January 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0300 level once again. That is likely to help keep a lid on price action until we get to the US jobs report later in the day. That especially since the dollar...
FX option expiries for 9 January 10am New York cut
There are quite a few to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are all for EUR/USD with the big one to take at the 1.0300 level. That could very well act as a magnet for price action in the session ahead, before we get to US trading at least. Then, the ones at...
FX option expiries for 8 January 10am New York cut
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/GBP at the 0.8300 level. That is likely to keep price action in the pair more locked in around the figure level before the expiries roll off later in the day.For more...
FX option expiries for 7 January 10am New York cut
There isn't much on the option expiries board for today. As such, trading sentiment will continue to focus on the early positioning plays to start the week.The dollar was a little weaker on tariff hopes but then Trump came out to deny that here. The bond market...
FX option expiries for 6 January 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0300 level. The expiries there might help to keep a bit of a floor on price action in the session ahead, as market players look to get settled into the actual start of...
FX option expiries for 3 January 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And they are all for EUR/USD, layered in between the 1.0200 to 1.0300 levels. After the steeper decline overnight thanks to a stronger dollar, the pair is now at its lowest since November 2022. And...
US 30-year fixed mortgage rate edges up to 6.91% from 6.85%
Optimism is high for many sectors of the US economy in 2025 but one area that's slumped since the election is home builders. That's co-incided with better economic data since September and rising 30-year bond yields.There is a psychological barrier at 7% that scares...
FX option expiries for 2 January 10am New York cut
Happy new year, everyone! I hope you enjoyed the holiday break and some of you might still are until next week. If so, definitely rest up well and hope the new year will be a good one for all of us. To kick things off, let's start with the good ol' option expiries...
FX option expiries for 20 December 10am New York cut
There are plenty of significant and massive expiries in play today, as highlighted in bold.The very much larger ones are for EUR/USD and the ones to watch out for are layered between 1.0300 to 1.0400, given prevailing trading sentiment. The pair saw price action...
FX option expiries for 19 December 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And they are for EUR/USD once again, layered between 1.0365 to 1.0400. The pair is catching a notable downside break under 1.0400 after the Fed yesterday. The low touched 1.0343 and is just shy of...
FX option expiries for 18 December 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. However, watch out for the very, very much larger expiries on Friday!The one for today is for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 level once again. And that is likely to help keep price action more muted closer...
FX option expiries for 17 December 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0525 level. It coincides with the 200-hour moving average currently, also seen at 1.0525. And that has been a key near-term level in terms of limiting price movement...
FX option expiries for 16 December 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.They are relatively large ones and are all for EUR/USD layered through 1.0500 to 1.0550. Similar to what we saw at the end of last week, the ones at the figure level are likely to help keep...
EUR/USD – there are extremely large option expiries at 1.0500 on Friday
Justin has just popped up with a very important reminder:there are extremely large expiries at 1.0500 rolling off (today, Friday) - potentially offering a bit of a pull there.Justin posts option expires each day, those for Friday, December 13, 2024 can be seen here in...
FX option expiries for 13 December 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.They are all for EUR/USD and layered between 1.0450 through to 1.0500. The big one of course is the over €7 billion in expiries at the 1.0500 level. That might offer some pull factor for EUR/USD in...
FX option expiries for 12 December 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the board for today, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 level. That should help to keep price action more limited ahead of the ECB policy decision later in the day. But from a technical perspective,...
FX option expiries for 11 December 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0490-00 levels. With sellers back in near-term control again as price action is below both the key hourly moving averages, it puts focus on the figure...
FX option expiries for 10 December 10am New York cut
There are arguably just two to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 and 1.0600 levels, sandwiching the current spot price. That should help keep price movements in the pair more limited before the expiries roll...
FX option expiries for 9 December 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will start to move towards focusing on the US inflation data later this week as well as key central bank meetings over coming two weeks. The dollar remains vulnerable after the...
FX option expiries for 6 December 10am New York cut
There is arguably just one to take note of in the day ahead, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 mark. The expiries there alongside some short-term resistance around 1.0590 could well help to keep any upside price action more limited, as we...
FX option expiries for 5 December 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.They are for EUR/USD and layered in between 1.0500 through to 1.0550. As such, the expiries could play a role in terms of limiting price movements during the session ahead. That at least until we...
FX option expiries for 4 December 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0525 level. That should help to keep price action locked in during the session ahead, especially with the 100-hour moving average providing a short-term ceiling as...
FX option expiries for 3 December 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 mark. Given the lack of catalysts in the session ahead, the expiries could act as a bit of a magnet in keeping price action in a stickier spot until we get to US...
FX option expiries for 2 December 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. The larger ones for EUR/USD are seen a distance away, especially with a more bullish dollar to start the new week. That owes to Trump's threats towards the BRICS over the weekend here.US data will steal the...
December forex seasonals: What’s hot, cold and gold in the month of December
The hours of November trading are ticking down but jingle bells are ringing in the distance. That means that December trading is on the way and it's the most wonderful time of the year for bulls.Risk assets tend to do well in December but for stocks, the period late...
FX option expiries for 29 November 10am New York cut
The expiries board doesn't contain too much on the day, with it still coinciding with the Thanksgiving holiday period. US markets will be open but it is likely that liquidity conditions will remain thinner than usual. Looking at the board, perhaps there is just one to...
FX option expiries for 28 November 10am New York cut
The expiries board today won't mean much, as flows will be marred by the Thanksgiving holidays. The same applies for tomorrow mostly as well, although there are some large ones for EUR/USD to be mindful of just in case. Month-end shenanigans saw the dollar sold off in...
FX option expiries for 27 November 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered at the 1.0415, 1.0475, and 1.0500 levels. Similar to yesterday, the expiries in particular the ones at 1.0475 and 1.0500 should limit price movements in the...
Potential for dollar selling this month end – Deutsche
Deutsche notes that the post-election moves in US assets are making for significant rebalancing signals on the basis of relative equity performance. According to the signals from their model, this will see potential for dollar supply with the largest signals being...
FX option expiries for 26 November 10am New York cut
There are a couple on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold.They are all for EUR/USD and layered at the 1.0415, 1.0475, and 1.0500 levels. The one at 1.0500 ties together with the 100-hour moving average currently, so that is likely to keep a lid on price...
FX option expiries for 25 November 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are for EUR/USD at the 1.0440 and 1.0485 levels. The pair opened with a gap higher today amid a weaker dollar and has been sticking thereabouts since. Offers layered closer to the 1.0500 mark are...
FX option expiries for 22 November 10am New York cut
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 level. However, just be wary that this comes after the daily break below the figure level yesterday but not for the first time in a long while though. We...
FX option expiries for 21 November 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 and 1.0515 levels. And alongside key technical resistance on the weekly chart at the 1.0500 mark itself, that should provide a floor for price action in...
FX option expiries for 20 November 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.They are for EUR/USD at the 1.0540 and 1.0620 levels. The former isn't one that holds much technical significance so I wouldn't bet on it to come into play, although geopolitical headlines...
FX option expiries for 19 November 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance and with the dollar retracing back some of its moves from last week, the expiries may not offer too...
FX option expiries for 18 November 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 and 1.0520 levels. Similar to last week, the former will be the more important one to watch as it sits alongside a key technical support region for the pair. That will...
FX option expiries for 15 November 10am New York cut
There is just one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the pivotal 1.0500 level. As mentioned here, that is a major technical mark for the pair and the expiries today highlights the added interest towards that. If...
FX option expiries for 14 November 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. But dollar domination is the name of the game now, so just be wary that the expiries aren't going to matter all too much.The one highlighted is for EUR/USD at the 1.0550 level. However, it isn't one that holds...
FX option expiries for 13 November 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0650 levels. The former in particular will continue to be a notable one, adding another layer to key support at the figure level for the time being. As such,...
FX option expiries for 12 November 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0625 levels. The pair is being pressured to the downside, touching its lowest levels since April now as the dollar continues to rampage...
FX option expiries for 11 November 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The daily lows last week were held by the figure level, so the expiries will add another layer to that as we get the new week underway at least. With the bond market...
FX option expiries for 8 November 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And again, they are all for EUR/USD layered in between 1.0750 through to 1.0800. Post-election sentiment is still the name of the game in driving FX flows now, so the expiries are just...
FX option expiries for 7 November 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0725 and 1.0775 levels. To some degree, the expiries might just lock price action in between these levels but it's all about post-election sentiment now. And momentum flows...
FX option expiries for 6 November 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. But on a day like this, the influence of the expiries is far from the first thing in driving or impacting trading sentiment. It's all about the US election and the momentum flows riding from the...
FX option expiries for 5 November 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 and 1.0900 levels. Considering the focus on the US election, this will keep price action more boxed in going into European trading and before we get to the election...
FX option expiries for 4 November 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 level. The figure level isn't one that holds any technical significance but the expiries could well help to box in price action in the session ahead. That...
November financial market seasonals: Japanese FX officials won’t want to read this
USDJPY weeklyThe election is going to dominate early November trading so making moves based on seasonals is unwise. That said, it's useful to keep them in mind as the dust settles.November is the best month for USD/JPYBest month for the NasdaqThird-best month for the...
FX option expiries for 01 November 2024 at the 10am New York cut
Justin is away for today. This is my sad imitation of his awesome option expiry post 😉 Justin will be back on Monday. EUR/USD 1.0900 (EUR1.1bn), 1.0840 (EUR863m)USD/CAD 1.3940 (US$693m), 1.3885 (US$650m), 1.3900 (US$457m)GBP/USD 1.2900 (GBP638m), 1.2850 (GBP600.4m),...
FX option expiries for 31 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level and that is likely to limit price action until we get to the euro area inflation data later. The numbers there offers a risk to the single currency, but there...
FX option expiries for 30 October 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0775 and 1.0850 levels. The expiries are sandwiching the spot price at the moment with price action this week largely contained in between 1.0780 through...
FX option expiries for 29 October 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.It's the same one for EUR/USD as seen yesterday, at the 1.0800 level. The expiries today are relatively large and could provide a draw/magnet for price action in the session ahead. That could very...
FX option expiries for 28 October 10am New York cut
There is just one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0800 level. Alongside the 100-hour moving average nearby at 1.0802 currently, it is likely to keep a lid on price action in the session ahead. That especially...
FX option expiries for 25 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The ones for EUR/USD are seen at the 1.0800 and 1.0820 levels. The ones at the former held price action yesterday before rolling off and the ones today should keep downside price action more limited...
FX option expiries for 24 October 10am New York cut
There are quite a number on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0780 level through to 1.0800. That might keep price action locked in for a while until we get to the euro area PMI data later. If there is downside...
FX option expiries for 23 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. The size of the expiries is noteworthy but it might not feature too much into play as the dollar is keeping firmer this week. Besides that, there is...
FX option expiries for 22 October 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It coincides with the 100-hour moving average currently, which is where price action was held up in trading yesterday. As such, the expiries alongside the...
FX option expiries for 21 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0885 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance, especially with the 100-hour moving average at 1.0866 pinning price action down for now. But it...
FX option expiries for 18 October 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It isn't one that ties too much with any key technical levels but the expiries could help to just keep a lid on price action for the session ahead. That...
FX option expiries for 17 October 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6700 level. When paired together with the technical predicament here, the expiries add another layer for buyers to have to chew through in the session ahead. As such,...
FX option expiries for 16 October 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment might be a bit more muted in the session ahead. The dollar is keeping steadier across the board, so that continues to be the running theme since two weeks ago. There's no...
FX option expiries for 15 October 10am New York cut
There are some large ones on the board for today but may not feature into play given the current spot price levels.The one for EUR/USD is seen at the 1.1000 mark but as the dollar holds firmer, it's not likely to factor into price action in the session ahead. There...
FX option expiries for 14 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0950 level. That sits near the 100-hour moving average at 1.0949 currently with the bigger picture focus being on the pair's 100-day moving average at 1.0935....
FX option expiries for 11 October 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0930 and 1.0950 levels. If anything else, the expiries should help to keep price action more locked in that range in the session ahead. All that before we get to US...
FX option expiries for 10 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for USD/JPY at the 149.50 level. And that could help to act as a bit of a magnet to lock price action in before we get to the US CPI report later in the day. The pair remains buoyed...
FX option expiries for Wednesday 9 October 10am New York cut
USD/JPY: 144.75 ($1.42b), 147.00 ($960m)EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR790m), 1.0900 (EUR482m), 1.1275 (EU3R95m)USD/CAD: 1.3535 ($420m), 1.3550 ($301m)AUD/USD: 0.6625 (AUD648.5m)NZD/USD: 0.6050 (NZD751m), 0.6250 (NZD666m)For more information on how to use this data, you may...
FX option expiries for 8 October 10am New York cut
Justin will be back tomorrow. I know that'll be a relief for many of you options guys - I feel the same. USD/JPY: 150.00 (US$951m), 145.45 (US$750.1m)EUR/USD: 1.1085 (EUR1.11b), 1.1250 (EUR1.03b), 1.1000 (EUR1.01b)AUD/USD: 0.6800 (AUD781m), 0.6740 (AUD554m), 0.6825...
FX option expiries for 4 October 10am New York cut
Justin is off for a few days. I'll be posting these for another couple of days before regular (and much better 😉 ) service resumes! EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR2.09b), 1.1100 (EUR1.07b)USD/JPY: 148.00 (US$958m), 146.25 (US$879m)USD/CAD: 1.3350 (US$1.68b), 1.3500 (US$993m),...
FX option expiries for 2 October 10am New York cut
Justin is off for a few days. Apparently he is in Tokyo. Like I said yesterday, I am not jealous. Nope. 🙁 USD/JPY: 145.00 (US$2.12b), 150.00 (US$1.4b), 144.35 (US$1.2b)EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR2.54b), 1.0550 (EUR1.94b), 1.1060 (EUR1.61b)AUD/USD: 0.6650 (AUD1.11b), 0.6785...
FX option expiries for 3 October 10am New York cut
USD/JPY: 148.00 (US$1.74b), 145.75 (US$1.15b)EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR4.06b), 1.1060 (EUR2.37b), 1.1000 (EUR2.04b)AUD/USD: 0.6950 (AUD739.5m), 0.6785 (AUD1.16b)USD/CAD: 1.3550 (US$1.09b)NZD/USD: 0.6310 (NZD1.4b)GBP/USD: 1.3130 (GBP479.8m), 1.3300 (GBP381.1m)USD/CHF:0.8500...
FX option expiries for 2 October 10am New York cut
Justin is off for a few days. I am not jealous. Nope. 🙁 For the 10am New York cut today, Wednesday, October 2, 2024: USD/JPY144.00 (USD832m), 139.00 (USD560m)EUR/USD1.1025 (EUR2.11b), 1.1125 (EUR1.48b), 1.1100 (EUR1.21b)AUD/USD0.6950 (AUD495m), 0.6800...
FX option expiries for 1 October 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level. The price action since last week shows that it might take a bit to travel there but if it does, the expiries will act as a bit of a defensive layer...
How major market indexes performed in the third quarter
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
FX option expiries for 30 September 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. But just be wary that trading sentiment could be impacted by month-end and quarter-end flows later, especially when we get closer towards the London fix. That might make for a bit of a trickier time in...
FX option expiries for 27 September 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for USD/CAD at the 1.3500 level. It isn't one that ties to a technical level, so it isn't too significant. But if anything else, it could just draw and keep a lid on price action until we...
October forex seasonals: It’s harvest time
When markets open up on Monday, it will be October. Notably, Chinese markets will be open Monday as the Chinese Communist Party celebrates 75 years in power. From there, Chinese equity markets will be closed for the remainder of the week.That's an important detail...
FX option expiries for 26 September 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1150 and 1.1180-90 levels. That could play a role in locking price action a fair bit during the session ahead, amid the lack of other catalysts in driving the...
China – top government economic adviser disappears after crticism of Xi Jinping
Zhu Hengpeng was deputy director of the Institute of Economics at the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences ()CASS). CASS is China's pre-eminent thinktanks. He lost his job and was detained after he allegedly made some remarks in a private group chat on the...
FX option expiries for 25 September 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The standout ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1200-10 levels. There is already key technical resistance holding the pair thereabouts as seen here, so the expiries will add another layer to that. So,...
FX option expiries for 23 September 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1150 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance, but it could put a bit of a floor to price action during the session ahead at least. That with the...
FX option expiries for 20 September 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD and layered between 1.1150 and 1.1200. Given the more muted action so far, the expiries could keep price action in check before rolling off later in the day. If the...
FX option expiries for 19 September 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And they are all for EUR/USD, layered in between 1.1100 through to 1.1150. Traders are still largely digesting the Fed decision from yesterday but the expiries above could play a role in locking...
FX option expiries for 18 September 10am New York cut
It's all about the Fed today, and there isn't anything too significant on the option expiries board to really influence price action in the meantime.There is a decent sized one for USD/JPY at 141.00 but we might not really revisit that level until we get to the FOMC...
FX option expiries for 17 September 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1125 level. It rests at the 38.2/61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing lower since August, so there's that. But if anything else, the expiries could just keep price...
FX option expiries for 16 September 10am New York cut
There aren't really any to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will rely more on the positioning flows in the run up to the FOMC meeting later in the week. The dollar is under pressure now with yields pinned lower and that will continue to be the key...
FX option expiries for 13 September 10am New York cut
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6740 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance though, so there might not be much in it. But if anything else, the expiries could keep price...
FX option expiries for 12 September 10am New York cut
There are quite a number to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered from 1.1000 through to 1.1050. That sort of keeps a lock on things until we get to the ECB later at least. That especially the extremely large one at...
FX option expiries for 11 September 10am New York cut
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1000 level. Again, if anything else, it will help to act as a bit of a floor to price action before rolling off later in the day. That said, just be wary that...
FX option expiries for 10 September 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1000 level. If anything else, it will just act as a slight magnet or at most a floor for price action before rolling off in the session ahead. But given...
China to issue up to €2 bln in euro sovereign bonds in Paris on Sept 23
China's Finance Ministry: Will issue up to 2 bln euros of euro sovereign bonds in Paris on Sept 23. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.
FX option expiries for 6 September 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 and 1.1150 levels. They are likely to help sandwich price action as traders wait on the US jobs report later in the day. And that is just that, markets are all...
FX option expiries for 5 September 10am New York cut
There are quite a number to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered between 1.1060 through to 1.1100. The expiries are likely to help keep price action more contained in the session ahead, at least until we...
FX option expiries for 4 September 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for USD/CAD at the 1.3515 level. It isn't one that really holds any technical significance but the expiries there could act as a bit of a floor to price action, at least until we get to...
FX option expiries for 3 September 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1050 mark. And that could perhaps limit price action and make things a bit stickier in the session ahead before we get to the US open. Similarly, the one for USD/CAD at the...
FX option expiries for 2 September 10am New York cut
There isn't anything major to take note of for today. And that is understandable, given a holiday for North American markets. So, technically the week only really kicks into gear tomorrow.We'll have jobs-related data from the US to work through during the week. So,...
September seasonals: The worst month on the calendar for the S&P 500
August was a wild ride. It's typically a quiet, summer month but it was anything but that this year as markets melted down early in the month only to post a full recovery in a remarkable turn.That's left some nice-looking monthly charts and a series of breakouts. The...
EURUSD Eyes 2023 Top After Quick Rally
EURUSD returns to positive trend after Powell confirms dovish policy adjustment Technical signals reflect weakening positive bias; next resistance could be at 1.1240-1.1274 EURUSD has had a great August so far, rising sharply from 1.0776 to nearly 1.1200 to mark its...
EUR/USD Outlook: Looks for Test of 2023 High After Limited Correction
EURUSD cracked 1.1200 barrier after Friday’s 0.75% rally (the biggest daily gain since Aug 2) and hit new 2024 high early Monday. Bulls remain firmly in play after strong advance in past two weeks and on track for the biggest monthly gain since November 2022, as...
Caution Creeps Back as Markets Eye Crucial Inflation Data in the Week
Traders appear to be stepping back from last Friday’s risk-on rally, showing more caution in the Asian session today. The mood in major indices is mixed; with Nikkei trading down by more than -1%, while HSI is showing gain of about 1%. This cautious sentiment is...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s retreat from 0.9579 extended lower last week but recovered slightly ahead of 0.9448 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rally is in favor. On the upside, sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9576) will pave the way back to...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD gyrated lower last week despite weak downside momentum. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.6432) will argue that rise from 1.5996 has completed. Deeper fall would then be seen back to this support. Nevertheless, strong rebound from...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s steep decline last week suggest that rebound from 0.8382 has completed 0.8624 already, after rejection by 0.8643 resistance. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.8382 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY stayed in sideway trading below 163.86 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 163.86 will target 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY stayed in sideway trading below 191.99 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 191.99 will target 61.8% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 197.35, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s rally continued last week despite interim retreat. Initial bias is on the upside this week with focus on 0.6798 resistance. Firm break there will extend the rally from 0.6348 to 0.6870 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6696 support turn bias to the...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s extended decline last week suggests that rebound from 0.8431 has completed at 0.8747, after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734. Initial bias is on the downside this week for retesting 0.8431 support first. Firm break there will...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s rally accelerated higher last week and the break of 1.3141 resistance confirms larger up trend resumption. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from 1.2664 at 1.3409. On the downside, below 1.3075 minor support...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s rally continued last week and the strong break of 1.1138 resistance argues that larger up trend may be resuming. Initial bias is on the upside this week for t 161.8% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1232, and then 1.1274 high. On the downside,...
Dollar at Risk of Resuming Medium-Term Downtrend as Fed Confirms Rate Cuts Ahead
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at Jackson Hole didn’t disappoint market participants, as he clearly signaled that the time for easing monetary policy has arrived. This declaration provided a notable boost to US stock markets on Friday, with major...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY gyrated lower last week even though momentum is a bit unconvincing. Still, the development suggests that rebound from 141.67 has completed at 149.35, after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. Initial bias is on the downside this week...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD’s steep decline and strong break of 1.3588 support argues that while rise from 1.3176 has completed already. Fall from 1.3946 is seen as another falling leg inside medium term range pattern. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.3477 support. Firm...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: The Time Has Come for Policy to Adjust
Summary United States: Homes Out of Range Chair Powell delivered a distinctively dovish speech this week at Jackson Hole. Elsewhere, a slew of housing data revealed that, although green shoots are sprouting, affordability issues continue to constrain the housing...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Fed Chair Powell Endorses September Rate Cut
U.S. Highlights Minutes from the July 30-31 FOMC meeting as well as Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole showed a clear commitment that the FOMC will start cutting rates in September. The Fed is likely to start slow, cutting by 25 basis points next month. But any...
Markets Weekly Outlook – Powell Delivers with Nvidia Earnings, PCE Data Next
Fed Chair Powell signals policy adjustments are needed, emphasizing concerns about labor market weakness. The impact of Powell’s remarks on the FX space saw GBP/USD and EUR/USD reach new highs. Markets are pricing in a 34.5% chance of a 50 bps cut and 65.5% of a 25...
Summary 8/26 – 8/30
Monday, Aug 26, 2024 Tuesday, Aug 27, 2024 Wednesday, Aug 28, 2024 Thursday, Aug 29, 2024 Friday, Aug 30, 2024 The post Summary 8/26 – 8/30 appeared first on Action Forex.
USDCAD Still Fights With 1.3600
USDCAD repeatedly tests the 200-day SMA Momentum oscillators are mixed USDCAD has been battling with the 1.3600 round number and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) over the last couple of days. A successful break beneath these critical levels could open the way...
Canada’s retail sales falls -0.3% mom in Jun, to bounce back 0.6% mom in Jul
Canada’s retail sales value fell -0.3% mom to CAD 65.7B in June, matched expectations. Sales were down in four of nine subsectors and were led by decreases at motor vehicle and parts dealers. In volume terms, retail sales increased 0.1% mom. Excluding gasoline...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1085; (P) 1.1125; (R1) 1.1152; More…. EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.1173 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is expected as long as 1.1046 resistance turned support holds. Above 1.1173 will target 161.8%...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3069; (P) 1.3100; (R1) 1.3122; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first with 4H MACD crossed below signal line. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from 1.2664 at 1.3124 and 1.3141 resistance will...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8496; (P) 0.8515; (R1) 0.8541; More….. Intraday bias in USD/CHF Is turned neutral first with current recovery. While stronger rise cannot be ruled out, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.8747 resistance holds. Below 0.8488 will target...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets At a hearing before Parliament this morning, BoJ governor Ueda had a balanced but after all clear message. The BoJ has started policy normalization and intends to further walk that path if inflation and growth continue to develop in line with the banks’...
Week Ahead – PCE Inflation Eyed as Fed Lays Groundwork for September Cut
Focus to stay on the Fed as PCE inflation to be week’s main highlight Eurozone inflation data to be crucial for ECB rate cut hopes Australian and Tokyo CPI, plus Canadian GDP also on the agenda Will PCE inflation disappoint dovish expectations? The Fed’s...
Canadian Q2 GDP Report to Reveal More Softness in the Economy
Canada’s GDP report next week is expected to show further weakening in the Canadian economy. We expect a 1.4% (annualized rate) increase in GDP in Q2 – below Statistics Canada’s 2% preliminary estimate a month ago, and marking the 7th of the last 8 quarters of...
Weekly Focus – More Soft Manufacturing Signals
Markets remained calm this week with risk sentiment improving further. Stock markets continued to trade higher taking S&P500 back to the recent highs reached in mid-July and cyclical metal prices increased as well. Bond yields drifted moderately lower in the US...
Fed’s Powell hints at rate cuts: ‘Time has come’ as labor market concerns grow
In his highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that “the time has come” for a shift towards monetary easing. Although he did not specify the exact timing or pace of rate cuts, Powell highlighted the increasing need to support the...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.19; (P) 145.55; (R1) 146.63; More… Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 144.44 temporary low will reaffirm the case that rebound form 141.67 has completed, and bring retest of this low. On...
Gold (XAU/USD) Retests $2500/oz Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Remarks
Gold prices retest $2500/oz ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Gold’s rebound in the European session and technical analysis suggest bullish momentum. September rate cuts likely already priced in. What impact will Powell’s remarks have? Gold prices are...
Calm Before the Speech: Markets Steady Ahead of Powell
Trading in the forex markets remains muted as investors hold their positions ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at Jackson Hole. Market participants are keenly focused on any signals regarding the Fed’s plans for monetary policy easing,...
Yen Edges Higher on BoJ’s Ueda Hawkish Remarks
The Japanese yen is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.06, down 0.14% on the day. The yen has looked sharp this week, gaining 1% against the struggling US dollar. Japan’s Core CPI rises to 2.7% Japan’s core CPI rose...
Gold Outlook: Near Term Tone Firmed Ahead of Key Event – Powell’s Speech in Jackson Hole
Gold regained traction and bounced on Friday, reversing so far around a half on Thursday’s 1.1% drop, which broke and closed below psychological $2500 level. Top of the former range at $2480 zone performed as solid support and contained dip, which also closed above...
GBPUSD: Bullish Extension or Deeper Correction? Key Liquidity Zones
Bearish Corrective Scenario: Sell positions below 1.3130 with TP1 at 1.3103. Consider TP2: 1.3090, TP3: 1.3076, and TP4: 1.3057 only after a decisive break. Use a stop-loss (S.L.) above 1.3160 or at least 1% of account equity for intraday trades. Bullish Scenario: Buy...
AUD/USD Sees Rebound: Weak US Dollar and RBA’s Steady Stance Support Strength
AUD/USD is finding its footing, currently stabilising at around 0.6725, as the US dollar weakens further in anticipation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Investors are watching closely for cues on future policy shifts, influencing...
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Surges, USD/CAD Drops To Support
GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2920 zone. USD/CAD declined and now consolidates below the 1.3640 level. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today The British Pound is eyeing more gains above the 1.3130 resistance. There is a connecting...
Analysis of GBP/USD: The Pair Approaches 2023 High
Yesterday, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for both the UK and the US were released. According to ForexFactory, the UK figures were as follows: → Flash Manufacturing PMI: actual = 52.5, forecast = 52.1; previous = 52.1; → Flash Services PMI: actual = 53.3,...
US 100 Index Sits at Key Level
US 100 index exhibits bearish tendencies but stabilizes near 50-SMA Technical risk is two-sided as Powell prepares for his Jackson hole speech( 14:00 GMT) Bulls hope for a close above 19,880; bears need a drop below 19,350 The US 100 stock index came under pressure on...
GBPJPY’s Recovery Stalls at 200-day SMA
GBPJPY attempts to recover from recent 8-month low But the rebound falters after testing 200-day SMA RSI and MACD remain tilted to the bearish side GBPJPY experienced a vast selloff in July, dropping from a 16-year peak of 208.10 to as low as 180.07 on August 5, which...
Buckle Up: Markets Brace for Fed Powell’s Jackson Hole Remarks
In the calm before what could be a stormy session, forex markets remained exceptionally quiet during Asian trading. Dollar managed a slight recovery overnight, bolstered by pullback in US equities, but the upward momentum has been notably weak. Traders are now...
FX option expiries for 23 August 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level again. Similar to yesterday, the expiries are likely to help lock price action from falling off too much in the session ahead. That at least until we get to...
ECB minutes highlight September as ideal time for policy re-evaluation
ECB’s July meeting accounts revealed that the upcoming September meeting is “widely seen as a good time to re-evaluate the level of monetary policy restriction,” with members emphasizing the importance of approaching that meeting with an “open mind.” The...
EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8502; (P) 0.8524; (R1) 0.8538; More…. EUR/GBP’s fall from 0.8624 resumed by breaking through 0.8507 temporary low as well as 55 D EMA (now at 0.8498. Intraday bias is back on the downs for 61.8% retracement of 0.8382 to 0.8624 at 0.8474. Firm...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1108; (P) 1.1141; (R1) 1.1183; More…. A temporary top is in place in EUR/USD with 4H MACD crossed below signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. But further rally is expected as long as 1.1046 resistance turned...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3028; (P) 1.3074; (R1) 1.3137; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Decisive break of r 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from 1.2664 at 1.3124, which is close to 1.3141 high, will confirm larger up trend...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets European data today managed to temporarily steal attention away from the US. August PMI figures showed EMU business activity rising at a faster pace, but there’s more than meets the eye. The composite PMI ticked up to 51.2 (3-month high) whereas consensus...
Gold Struggles After Reaching New Highs
Gold started the week with a decisive renewal of all-time highs, reaching the maximum spot price of $2531 per troy ounce. However, the bulls failed to seize the initiative finally, and on Thursday, gold lost more than 1%, falling back to the depths of the upward trend...
NZ Dollar Slips Ahead of Retail Sales, Powell’s Speech
The New Zealand dollar is drifting on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD has fallen to 0.6132 at the time of writing, down 0.41% on the day. The New Zealand dollar continues to have its way with its US counterpart and has soared 4% since July 29. New...
Japanese Yen Price Action Ideas: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY
The Japanese Yen has seen significant volatility in recent weeks, influenced by factors like US Dollar recovery and mixed Japanese economic data. USD/JPY shows potential for retesting the 150.00 level, with resistance at 146.37 and support around 143.60. EUR/JPY...
Fed’s Harker and Collins signal support for gradual rate cuts
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have both indicated their support for beginning a gradual reduction in interest rates, assuming no unexpected changes in economic data. Harker emphasized that the process should start...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8487; (P) 0.8525; (R1) 0.8554; More….. Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays on the downside for the moment. Fall from 0.8747 is in progress for retesting 0.8431. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.9223 towards 0.8332 low. On the upside,...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.19; (P) 145.55; (R1) 146.63; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with 4H MACD crossed above signal line. The corrective structure of the fall from 149.35 dampened the original bearish view that rebound from 141.67 has completed. On...
US PMI composite falls to 54.1, still points to over 2% annualized GDP growth in Q3
In August, US PMI Manufacturing dropped to 48.0, the lowest in eight months, down from 49.6 in July. In contrast, PMI Services index showed a slight increase, rising from 55.0 to 55.2. PMI Composite index also declined, falling from 54.3 to 54.1, a four-month low....
Sterling Surges on Strong PMI Data, BoE Likely to Hold Off on Rate Cuts Amid Resilient Growth
Sterling surged broadly today, driven by stronger-than-expected PMI data indicating that the UK economy is on track for reasonably solid growth in the third quarter. This positive economic outlook comes at a time when inflationary pressures are easing, which would...
US initial jobless claims falls rises to 232k
US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 232k in the week ending August 17, matched expectations. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -750 to 236k. Continuing claims rose 4k to 1863k in the week ending August 10, highest since November 27, 2021. Four-week...
Fed’s Schmid needs to see a bit more data before acting on rate cut
In a Bloomberg TV interview recorded on Wednesday and aired Thursday, Kansas City Fed Bank President Jeff Schmid emphasized the importance of waiting for additional economic data before making any decisions on rate cuts. “It makes sense for me to really look at some...
(ECB) Monetary policy accounts – Action Forex
Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 17-18 July 2024 22 August 2024 1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options Financial...
Germany’s PMI composite falls to 48.5, risk of another recession growing
Germany’s PMI data for August paints a bleak picture, with both the manufacturing and services sectors underperforming. PMI Manufacturing dropped from 43.2 to 42.1, falling short of the expected 43.5. PMI Services also declined, falling from 52.5 to 51.4, below the...
Eurozone PMI composite rises to 51.2, easing cost pressures strengthens case for ECB Sep cut
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing fell slightly from 45.8 to 45.6 in August, an 8-month low and below expectations of 46.1. In contrast, PMI Services showed a strong performance, rising from 51.9 to 53.3, surpassing the expected 52.2. This divergence led to a modest increase...
Crypto Tug of War – Action Forex
Market picture The crypto market gained 1.7% in the last 24 hours to reach $2.14 trillion, continuing to test August’s resistance. Bitcoin rose 2.6%, while Ethereum gained 1.2%. The battle for a 10th position in the CoinMarketCap has intensified: Tron’s 5.5% drop to a...
JP 225 Index: Is There More Upside on the Horizon?
JP 225 index reclaims August’s loss Short-term risk is on the positive side Will the bulls breach the 38,600-39,950 area too? Japan’s 225 stock index (cash) is trading with soft positive momentum on Thursday for the second consecutive day, hitting a three-week high of...
UK PMI data shows robust growth, easing inflation opens door for BoE rate cuts
UK’s PMI data for August showed positive momentum across both the manufacturing and services sectors. PMI Manufacturing edged up from 52.1 to 52.5, surpassing expectations of 52.2 and marking a 26-month high. PMI Services also rose from 52.5 to 53.3, above the...
WTI Futures Fall to a 7-Month Low
WTI futures drop to their lowest level since January 17 Momentum indicators are heavily tilted to bearish side WTI oil futures (October delivery) have been in a steady retreat following their rejection at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in mid-August. On...
FX option expiries for 22 August 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.However, given the overarching theme in markets this week i.e. dollar weakness, the expiries for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level may not matter too much. The pair is looking to secure a breakout as noted...
Dollar Continues to Slide as FOMC Minutes Confirm September Rate Cut Likely
Dollar extended its broad decline overnight following release of FOMC minutes, which confirmed that a vast majority of Fed members see a rate cut in September as appropriate. However, the market reaction was relatively muted, as this outcome has already been largely...
ECB’s Panetta: End of monetary restriction has already begun
ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta indicated today that the central has entered entering a phase of monetary easing following the rate cut in June. Speaking at an event, Panetta remarked, “The end of monetary restriction has already begun,” adding that...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1090; (P) 1.1112; (R1) 1.1151; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Firm break of 1.1138 resistance will target 161.8% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1232. On the downside, below 1.1071 minor...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2989; (P) 1.3020; (R1) 1.3067; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside with focus on 1.3043 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 1.2998 to 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from 1.2664 at 1.3124, which is...
USD/CHF Mid-Days Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8507; (P) 0.8572; (R1) 0.8605; More….. USD/CHF’s fall from 0.8747 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for retesting 0.8431. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.9223 towards 0.8332. On the upside, above...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The ‘waiting game’ continued today in Europe and at the onset of the US trading session, counting down in the first place to today’s BLS payrolls revisions and to the Minutes of the Fed July 31 policy meeting later today. Even the $16 bn sale of 20-y US...
Yen Heads for a New Round of Growth
Since the end of last week, the Yen has regained ground against the Dollar and the Euro in what looks like a new round of appreciation. So far, this seems to be an independent theme for the Yen’s rise, without any deterioration in sentiment in the equity and bond...
US job growth revised down by -818k in largest payroll adjustment dince 2009
According to a report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy created -818k fewer jobs than initially reported in the 12-month period through March 2024. This significant revision means that actual job growth was nearly -30% less than the originally...
Soft-Landing, or No Soft-Landing, That Is the Question: Part III
Part III: A New Toolkit To Predict Soft-Landings, Stagflation and Recessions Summary In the third installment of this series, we introduce a probit framework to generate four-quarter-out probabilities of three scenarios: recession, stagflation and soft-landing....
Bitcoins (BTC/USD) Steady Range: Mt Gox Impact and Future Outlook
Bitcoin prices are currently range-bound, the range between 56,561 and 61,750 is keeping both buyers and sellers cautious. Mt. Gox moved 13,265 Bitcoins totaling and estimated $780 million. The first major move by the bankrupt exchange since July 30. According to...
EUR/USD Outlook: Bulls Taking a Breather Under New 2024 High, Eye Fresh Signals from Fed
EURUSD reduced speed after steep rally in past three days which hit new 2024 top (1.1132) just ticks ahead of Dec 2023 top (1.1139). The single currency continues to benefit from risk appetite and weak dollar on Fed rate cut expectations, with release of FOMC minutes...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.53; (P) 145.94; (R1) 146.67; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Rebound from 141.67 could have completed at 149.35 after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. Deeper fall would...
GBP/USD Hits 1-Month High, UK PMIs Next
The British pound is showing limited movement on Wednesday, after a four-day rally in which it surged 1.7% against the retreating US dollar. GBP/USD is trading at 1.3047 in the North American session at the time of writing, up 0.1% on the day. All eyes on Jerome...
Dollar Continues to Struggle Amid Market Lull
The forex markets are experiencing a lull today, with little movement in the absence of significant economic releases during European and early US sessions. The much-discussed non-farm payroll revision and the release of FOMC minutes later today are unlikely to spark...
WTI Outlook: Bears Taking a Breather After the Latest Acceleration
Bears are taking a breather after the latest bearish acceleration in past three days (oil price was down 5%) deflated by easing tensions in the Middle East and rise in US crude stocks (API report). Oversold daily studies and Tenkan-Kijun-sen turned sideways,...
Euro Drifting as Investors Eye Fed Minutes
The euro is calm on Wednesday after an impressive 3-day rally which saw EUR/USD jump 1.4%. Will the upswing continue? In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1220 at the time of writing, down 0.08% on the day. ECB likely to lower rates in September despite...
EURUSD Bulls Stay in Charge
EURUSD extends rally, hits 1.1130 But oscillators point to fading momentum A setback may be possible before the next leg north EURUSD has been in a steady rally since August 15, when it hit support at 1.0950, and it is currently testing the key resistance zone of...
Gold Bulls May Rest after Record High
Gold pulls below record high; might give up more ground Market trend stays positive as long as price holds above 2,463 Gold lost momentum after unlocking an all-time high of 2,531 on Tuesday near the rising constraining line drawn from July’s low, but it maintained...
US Dollar Extends Losses, Gold Shines
There was no major news on the wire to trigger the minor selloff in global equities, so it was nothing else than a correction after a long rally following an ugly meltdown. As such, the S&P500 and Nasdaq were slightly down, by around 0.20% each, the European Stoxx...
Payrolls Revision Flagged as Potential Gamechanger
Markets The recent comeback momentum on US stock markets stalled yesterday with main US benchmarks suffering minor losses (-0.25%) following an astonishing rally over the past two weeks. Other directional trades continued. US Treasuries outperformed German Bunds with...
USDJPY Rises But Still in Negative Territory
USDJPY remains below 200-day SMA and uptrend line RSI ticks higher reflecting the latest move USDJPY is gaining some ground after three consecutive red days and losing around 3% from the 149.50 resistance level. The market has been trading beneath the long-term...
NZDUSD Hits Fresh 2-month High
NZDUSD stages a V-shaped recovery from 2024 low The pair jumps above 200-day SMA to its highest since June 14 Oscillators improve notably, suggesting increasing bullish bias NZDUSD has been steadily regaining ground since the beginning of the month after finding its...
XAU/USD Outlook: Gold Price Consolidating Under New Record High, Ahead FOMC Minutes
Gold keeps firm tone and consolidating under new record high ($2531) posted on Tuesday, with third consecutive daily close above $2500 level, pointing to clear break. The yellow metal holds in a steep multi-month uptrend and has registered gains of nearly 22% since...
FX option expiries for 21 August 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level. There has been expiries here all through the week and the ones today will still have some slight influence on price action. For one, it could act as a bit...
Dollar Stays Pressured, NFP Revisions and FOMC Minutes Unlikely Change Its Course
Dollar remains under broad-based selling pressure, with markets likely to keep this trend until Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. While today’s events, including the non-farm payroll revision and the release of FOMC...
Australian Dollar’s Rally Runs Out of Steam
The Australian dollar has steadied after pummeling the US dollar over the past two sessions. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6729 in the European session, down 0.04% on the day at the time of writing. RBA minutes: Rates will remain steady The RBA minutes from the meeting...
Brent Crude – Oil Slides Into Key Support as Geopolitical Risk Takes a Backseat
Brent crude oil prices continue to fall amidst rumors of a Middle East deal and increased production in Libya. US crude stockpiles are expected to have decreased, and insights from the Jackson Hole symposium could impact oil prices. Technicals point to a key support...
Why Do Oil Prices Post Notable Losses?
Oil prices have decreased lately as a result of various crucial factors Technical Outlook confirms bearish structure Global economic concerns The global economy is encountering substantial difficulties, especially in prominent economies such as China and Europe....
EUR/USD Holds Near Seven-Month High Amid Speculation on Fed Rate Cuts
Euro/dollar maintains its position close to a seven-month peak, trading at 1.1077 on Tuesday. The US dollar’s weakening continues, largely driven by market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next month. Attention is also geared...
Canada’s CPI slows to 2.5% in Jul, CPI common down to 2.2%
Canada’s CPI slowed to 2.5% yoy in July, down from 2.7% yoy in June, aligning with market expectations. This marks the slowest pace of inflation since March 2021. According to Statistics Canada, the deceleration in headline inflation was broad-based, with lower prices...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.17; (P) 146.62; (R1) 148.04; More… As noted before, USD/JPY’s rebound from 141.67 could have completed at 149.35 after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. Intraday bias stays mildly on the downside for retesting 141.67...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8604; (P) 0.8641; (R1) 0.8666; More….. USD/CHF’s break of 0.8616 support should indicate that rebound from 0.8431 has completed at 0.8747, after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734. Intraday bias is back on the downside...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2951; (P) 1.2974; (R1) 1.3013; More… GBP/USD’s rally from 1.2664 continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 1.3043. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.2998 to 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from 1.2664...
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3614; (P) 1.3650; (R1) 1.3670; More… USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3946 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.3588 structural support. Strong support could be seen from there to bring reversal. On the upside, above 1.3684 will...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Markets took a breather today during the European session. The dollar (DXY) yesterday closed below 102 for the first time since early January and remains stuck there. The greenback even extends losses as US investors enter the market. European stock markets...
Dollar on the Edge – Action Forex
The US dollar has fallen to its lowest levels of the year, losing more than 2.3% from its August peak and around 4% since early July as expectations of a Fed rate cut in September began to be priced in. The dollar index has retreated to 101.7, reflecting growing...
Canadian Inflation Eases Further Towards BoC’s Target
Headline CPI inflation edged lower in July to 2.5% year-on-year (y/y), right on consensus expectations. This was the lowest reading since March 2021. The deceleration was driven by base year effects (lower price growth relative to last July) for items like travel...
Canadian Dollar Slips as CPI Solidifies Case for BoC Sep Cut, Gold Marches On
Canadian Dollar has come under broad pressure in the early US session following the release of the latest inflation data, which showed a further slowdown in inflation, with headline CPI fell to a 40-month low and core measures also easing. This set of data has...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1043; (P) 1.1064; (R1) 1.1107; More….. Intraday bias in EURUSD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise should target 1.1138 resistance, and then 161.8% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1232. On the downside, below 1.1029...
Bundesbank expects temporary inflation rise, sees modest economic expansion ahead
In its latest monthly report, Bundesbank cautioned that inflation is expected to “temporarily increase” towards the end of the year. This uptick is anticipated as the currently negative inflation rates for energy turn positive, and the depressed profit margins for...
The Sweet Soft-Landing Spot – Action Forex
The week kicked off on a positive note on expectation that when Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday, he will deliver a strong hint that the rate cuts will begin soon in the US. How soon ? Probably in September? By how...
A Softer Dollar Remains the Way to Go
Market Commentary Markets Last week’s directional moves on key markets were extended yesterday in absence of any guidance coming from eco data or central bankers. Core bond yields fail to recover from the early August setback with daily changes in the US ranging...
GBPUSD Awaits Strong Resistance Near 1-Year High
GBPUSD’s rebound off 200-day SMA still holds Stochastic in overbought area RSI ticks south above 50 level GBPUSD continues last week’s rebound off the 200-day SMA and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 1.2300 to 1.3045 at 1.2670, but with some...
Pound Near July Highs: What Could Trigger a Breakout?
The slowdown in U.S. inflation and a cooling labour market have rekindled investor confidence that the Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting interest rates. As bearish sentiment towards the dollar dominates the market, key currency pairs have approached critical...
As Crypto Market Tests Resistance, Solana Eyes Support
The cryptocurrency market is once again testing the important $2.15 trillion milestone, adding almost 4% in the last 24 hours. Selling pressure has been building near this level since early August. Now, thanks to the impressive recovery in stock indices,...
Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.6% in Jul, core CPI at 2.9%
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.6% yoy in July, up from June’s 2.5% yoy. CPI Core (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 2.9% yoy, unchanged from June’s reading. The highest contribution to the annual inflation rate came from services (+1.82...
EURJPY’s Rebound Falters Ahead of 200-SMA
EURJPY recovers from its 2024 low posted on August 6 But the rebound stumbles before testing 200-day SMA Oscillators are skewed to the downside EURJPY experienced a vast selloff in July, dropping from a 32-year peak of 175.41 to as low as 154.34 on August 6, which is...
FX option expiries for 20 August 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level. The pair also has a large set of expiries at 1.1000 but that should not factor much into play given the dollar weakness so far this week. As such, the ones...
Dollar Weakens Further on Risk-On Mood, Canadian CPI Takes Center Stage
Dollar continued its decline overnight as risk-on sentiment prevailed, with S&P 500 and NASDAQ notching their eighth consecutive positive session. Investor optimism has been buoyed by recent economic data suggesting that the US economy is on track for a soft...
Dollar Index Outlook: Remains in Defensive on Growing Expectations for Dovish Fed’s Policy View
The dollar index remains firmly in red in early Monday trading, and extends Friday’s 0.93% drop, to breach key support at 101.94 (Aug 5 low, the lowest in eight months). The dollar was weaker across the board on renewed risk mode and growing expectations on more...
USD/JPY Outlook: Japanese Yen Regains Traction vs Dollar on Renewed Expectations for Dovish Fed
USDJPY dips further on Monday, adding to signals that corrective phase off 141.68 (Aug 5 spike low) is likely over. Upleg from 141.68 was repeatedly capped at pivotal Fibo barrier at 149.36 (38.2% retracement of 161.80/141.68) with subsequent weakness being sparked by...
GBP/USD Mid-Day – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2879; (P) 1.2913; (R1) 1.2979; More… GBP/USD’s rise from 1.2664 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 1.3043 high. Firm break there will resume whole rise from 1.2998 to 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0942; (P) 1.0980; (R1) 1.1010; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for 100% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1058. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration through 1.1138 resistance to 161.8%...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8636; (P) 0.8685; (R1) 0.8710; More….. Outlook in USD/CHF remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral for now. On the downside, break of 0.8616 support will indicate rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734, and turn bias...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.00; (P) 148.20; (R1) 148.83; More… USD/JPY’s rebound from 141.67 could have completed after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. Intraday bias remains on the downside for retesting 141.67 low. Firm break there will...
New Zealand Dollar Extends Gains as Services Index Rises
The New Zealand dollar wrapped up a fourth consecutive winning week and is in positive territory on Monday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6076, up 0.37% in the European session at the time of writing. New Zealand PSI pace of contraction eases The New Zealand Performance of...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets Markets took a slow start to the new trading week which looks more enticing later on. In the absence of high profile headlines today, softer yields and a weaker dollar initially proved the to be the path of least resistance, even as the momentum of this trade...
BTCUSD Completes Death Cross – Action Forex
BTCUSD trades sideways in the past few sessions Sentiment deteriorates after multiple rejections at 50-day SMA Momentum indicators are skewed to the downside BTCUSD (Bitcoin) has been losing ground in August, experiencing a strong selloff on the back of a downbeat...
AUD/USD Outlook: Continues to Trend Higher Ahead of FOMC Minutes, Powell’s Speech in Jackson Hole
AUDUSD rose to the highest levels in almost one month on Monday, in extension of almost 0.9% daily advance on Friday and 1.5% gains last week The pair enters the third consecutive week of strong gains, with the latest acceleration being boosted by revived risk...
News of the Week (August 19— August 23): GBPCAD Detailed Analysis
Keep your eyes on GBPCAD—new trading prospects are emerging! The GBPCAD currency pair, representing the exchange rate between the British pound and the Canadian dollar, is the most critical indicator of economic interaction between the UK and Canada. The Canadian...
Could Eurozone PMI Surveys Cement September ECB Rate Cut?
Markets are preparing for the Jackson Hole Symposium Eurozone data supports another ECB rate cut PMI surveys for the euro area will be published on Thursday Euro remains on the back foot against the pound The Jackson Hole gathering to break the summer lull Whilst ECB...
Dollar Remains Under Broad Pressure, Yen Maintains Strength
Dollar continues to face broad-based selling pressure as the markets move into US session. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is set to speak, but he is expected to maintain his consistent view that Fed is nearing a rate cut while the economy remains on track for soft...
Gold Price Surpasses $2500 for the First Time
We noted bullish sentiment in the gold market six days ago: → The price is moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue); → Bulls may attempt to set a historic record amid the release of economic news. As today’s XAU/USD chart shows, the gold price has risen...
Gold (XAU/USD) Eyes Consolidation Above $2500/oz. Will Bulls Hold the Line?
Gold prices surpassed the $2500/oz level on Friday despite a decrease in the likelihood of a 50 bps cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The rally in gold prices is attributed to dovish remarks by Federal Reserve policymakers and concerns over rising...
Gold (XAU/USD) Nears Record Highs Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty and Fed Speculations
The price of gold continues its impressive ascent, balancing around $2500 per troy ounce early this week, hovering near record peaks. The primary catalyst driving this rally is the intensified demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. The...
Fed’s Kashkari: Appropriate to discuss rate cut in September
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that Fed’s focus is increasingly shifting toward concerns in the labor market, moving away from the inflation side of its dual mandate. In an interview with WSI, Kashkari emphasized that “the balance of risks has...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.26; (P) 191.19; (R1) 191.99; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 191.99 will target 61.8% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 197.35, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 208.09. On the...
US 500 Index Slips After 10% Recovery
US 500 index rises above long-term uptrend line 200-day SMA still holds well Stochastic and RSI indicate overstretched market The US 500 cash index recovered by almost 10% from the bearish wave that started from the all-time high of 5,673.39 and is currently returning...
EUR/USD Outlook: Break Above 1.1000 Adds to Bullish Outlook, Limited Dips Should Be Anticipated
EURUSD keeps firm tone at the start of the week and extends gains above psychological 1.10 barrier after registering a weekly close above this level for the first time since late December. Bulls also cleared a Fibo resistance at 1.1012 (76.4% retracement of...
Crypto Market Attracts Money, But Prices Don’t Rise
Market Picture On Monday morning, the crypto market capitalisation stood at $2.07 trillion, up slightly from $2.05 trillion a week earlier. In the previous two weeks, the market failed to rally above the $2.15 trillion level, which has become a local resistance. The...
Gold Surges to Fresh Record High
Gold posts new all-time high on Monday But oscillators haven’t reached overbought conditions The divergence suggests that the advance may extend further Gold has been on the rise in the past couple of sessions, storming above the 2,500 psychological mark to a fresh...
Yen Gains Ground as Dollar Weakens, Focus on Fed Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech This Week
Yen is showing broad-based strength in today’s Asian session, particularly against the generally weakening Dollar. This move has also put pressure on the Nikkei, which turned lower as Yen gained momentum. While there’s no clear catalyst for these movements, it appears...
FX option expiries for 19 August 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6675 level. It isn't one that is technically significant but it could anchor gains for a bit before rolling off later in the day. The pair is in a breakout mood amid a...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Inching Towards a Pivot
U.S. Highlights The July report for the Consumer Price Index showed headline inflation fell below 3% for the first time since March 2021. U.S. retail sales surpassed expectations in July, rising 1.0% month-on-month. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during...
Markets Weekly Outlook – Gold Hits New ATH Ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium
Gold reaches a new all-time high as markets reassess rate cut expectations after evaluating resilient US data. The Jackson Hole Symposium will be a key event next week, with central bankers discussing strategies for growth and monetary policy. It’s a data-heavy week...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s rebound from 0.9209 extended to as high as 0.9579 last week before retreating. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first for some consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 0.9448 support holds. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9593) will...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s correction from 1.7180 short term top continued last week, but downside is contained above 1.6474 support so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rally is in favor. On the upside, above 1.6745 will argue that the pullback has...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s correction from 0.8624 extended lower last week after interim recovery. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 0.8624 to 0.8530 from 0.8591 at 0.8497, which is close to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8494). Strong support should be seen...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s rebound from 154.40 extended to 163.86 last week before forming a temporary top there. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations. On the upside, break of 163.86 will target 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38, as the second...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s rebound from 180.00 extended to 191.99 last week before forming a temporary top there. Initial bias this week is turned neutral for consolidations first. Above 191.99 will target 61.8% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 197.35, as the second leg of the...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6348 extended higher last week and with late break of 0.6642 temporary top, initial bias is back on the upside this week. Further rise should be seen to 0.6798 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6569 minor support will turn bias to the...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.8431 extended to 0.8747 last week, but failed to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734 and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained break of 0.8734 will extend to 61.8%...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s rebound from 141.67 extended higher last week but failed to break through 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 146.06 minor support will suggest rejection by...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD retreated after edging higher to 1.1046 last week but stayed in range above 1.0880 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations, and further rally is in favor. On the upside, firm break of 100% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776...
Markets Roar Back as Recession Fears Fade, Safe Havens Crumble
The past few weeks highlighted the volatility of global financial markets and how quickly investor sentiment can shift. The sharp selloff in US markets, driven by fears of an impending recession, now appears significantly overdone in light of last week’s robust...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s strong rally last week indicates that correction from 1.3043 has completed at 1.2664 already ahead of 1.2612 support. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 1.3043. Firm break there will resume whole rise from 1.2998 to 61.8% projection...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3946 short term top extended lower last week, and with the late break of 1.3688 temporary low, initial bias is back on the downside, Deeper decline should be seen to 1.3588 support. On the upside, above 1.3737 minor resistance will turn intraday...
Summary 8/19 – 8/23
Monday, Aug 19, 2024 Tuesday, Aug 20, 2024 Wednesday, Aug 21, 2024 Thursday, Aug 22, 2024 Friday, Aug 23, 2024 The post Summary 8/19 – 8/23 appeared first on Action Forex.
Eco Data 8/19/24 – Action Forex
Eco Data 8/19/24 - Action Forex GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 22:30 NZD Business NZ PSI Jul 40.2 23:50 JPY Machinery Orders M/M Jun 0.90% -3.20% GMT Ccy Events 22:30 NZD...
Eco Data 8/20/24
The post Eco Data 8/20/24 appeared first on Action Forex.
Eco Data 8/21/24
The post Eco Data 8/21/24 appeared first on Action Forex.
Eco Data 8/22/24
The post Eco Data 8/22/24 appeared first on Action Forex.
Eco Data 8/23/24
The post Eco Data 8/23/24 appeared first on Action Forex.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8666; (P) 0.8707; (R1) 0.8768; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside with focus on 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734. Sustained break there will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.8920, even as a...
GBP/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2811; (P) 1.2841; (R1) 1.2884; More… GBP/USD’s rise from 1.2664 resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. As noted before, pullback from 1.3043 could have completed at 1.2664 already. Further rally should be seen...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.76; (P) 148.58; (R1) 150.09; More… Immediate focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. Decisive break there will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 154.19, even as a corrective move. On the downside, break of...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.76; (P) 148.58; (R1) 150.09; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral as it retreated after failing to break through 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. On the downside, break of 146.06 minor support will suggest rejection...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8666; (P) 0.8707; (R1) 0.8768; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first as it retreated after hitting 0.8747. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734 will extend the rebound from 0.8431 to...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0942; (P) 1.0980; (R1) 1.1010; More….. EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.1046 and intraday bias remains neutral. Another rally is in favor as long as 1.0880 support holds. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2811; (P) 1.2841; (R1) 1.2884; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for retesting 1.3043 high. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 1.2998 to 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from 1.2664 at 1.3124, which is close...
Weekly Focus – From Fear of Inflation to Fear of Slowdown
Over the summer, we have seen big moves in financial markets largely reflecting conflicting views of the US economy. During the first half of 2024, markets were often driven by concerns about persistently high US inflation and the implication that it would be...
Week Ahead – Jackson Hole and PMIs Enter the Spotlight
As recession fears ease, investors lock gaze on Jackson Hole Eurozone and UK PMIs to affect ECB and BoE expectations Canadian inflation could back third consecutive BoC cut Japan’s Nationwide CPI data also on the agenda Jackson Hole to test overly dovish Fed cut bets...
XAUUSD: Formation of Bullish Pattern: Signs of Trend Continuation
Bearish Scenario: Sell positions below 2470 with TP1: 2463, TP2: 2460, TP3: 2456 intraday, with a stop loss above 2473 or at least 1% of the account capital. Bullish Scenario: Buy positions after a pullback above 2460 with TP1: 2470, TP2: 2480, and TP3: 2490 in...
Yen and Swiss Franc Recover as Benchmark Yields Ease
As the US session gets underway, both Yen and Swiss Franc are beginning to recover, aided by the slight pullback in benchmark Treasury yields in the US and Europe. This recovery comes after a tough week for the two safe-haven currencies, which have been the worst...
AUD/USD Climbs as RBA Maintains Firm Stance on Interest Rates
The Australian dollar (AUD) is witnessing a rise against the US dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day, reaching 0.6629. This upward movement is bolstered by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) current policy stance. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock emphasized...
Euro Edges Higher, US Dollar Under Pressure
The euro has edged higher on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0994, up 0.21% on the day at the time of writing. The US dollar is under pressure and the euro rose as much as 1.2% this week before paring about half of those gains. On Wednesday,...
New Zealand Dollar Stems Slide
The New Zealand dollar has rebounded on Friday after a 1.4% slide over the past two days. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6017, up 0.70% in the European session at the time of writing. Solid US numbers raises risk appetite Exactly two weeks ago, a soft employment report out...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0942; (P) 1.0980; (R1) 1.1010; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen below 1.1046. But another rally is in favor as long as 1.0880 support holds. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947...
USD/JPY Analysis: Rate Surpasses 149 Yen Per Dollar
As the USD/JPY chart indicates, the rate has risen approximately 5.4% above the August 5 low. On one hand, the yen’s weakening against the U.S. dollar is partly driven by rumours that the Bank of Japan might intervene not to support the weak yen (as when the rate was...
Market Analysis: Gold and Oil Prices Aim For Further Gains
Gold price started a fresh increase above the $2,432 resistance level. Crude oil prices are gaining bullish momentum and might even test $80.00. Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today Gold price started a steady increase from the $2,400 zone...
GBP/USD Extends Gains as Retail Sales Bounce Back
The British pound has extended its gains on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2887 in the European session, up 0.31% on the day at the time of writing. It has been a winning week for the pound, which has climbed 1%. UK retail sales jump in July There was more good news...
Eurozone goods exports fall -6.3% yoy in Jun, goods imports down -8.6% yoy
Eurozone goods exports fell -6.3% yoy to EUR 236.7B in June. Goods imports fall -8.6% yoy to EUR 214.3B. Trade balance showed a EUR 22.3B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade fell -8.5% yoy to EUR 214.5B. In seasonally adjusted term, goods exports fell -0.2% mom to EUR...
Strong US Retail Sales Send Yields Soaring
In focus today Today we get UK retail sales data for July at 8.00 CET. According to polls from Reuters, analysts expect overall retail sales to grow by 0.5% m/m and retail sales excl. fuels to grow by 0.8% m/m. In the US, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment...
FX option expiries for 16 August 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the board, as highlighted in bold.And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0960 and 1.1000 levels. The latter is the bigger one and arguably of more interest, given similar expiries in the past few days as well. Following the...
Risk-On Sentiment Sweeps Markets, Weighs on Safe Haven Currencies
Yen, Swiss Franc, and to a lesser extent, Dollar are trailing at the bottom of the weekly currency performance chart. Strong risk-on sentiment has swept through the US markets, and the positive momentum continued in Asia. This shift in sentiment was ignited by...
Nasdaq 100: Bears May Still Be Lurking Around the Corner
The market seems to be focused now on growth-related macro data rather than inflation risk. Another softer US retail sales may spark another recession aka hard-landing fear. The rise of the VVIX / VIX ratio may see another potential spike in the VIX. Watch the 19,230...
US retail sales rose 1% mom in Jul, ex-auto sales up 0.4% mom
US retail sales rose 1.0% mom to USD 709.7B in July, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.4% mom to USD 576.1B, above expectation of 0.1% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 1.0% mom to USD 657.1B. Ex-auto& gasoline sales rose 0.4% mom to USD 523.4B. Total...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0981; (P) 1.1014; (R1) 1.1046; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current steep retreat. Some consolidations would be seen first. But another rally is in favor as long as 1.0880 support holds. Firm break of 100% projection of...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2806; (P) 1.2838; (R1) 1.2857; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen below 1.2872 temporary top. But further rise is in favor as long as 1.2754 minor support holds. As noted...
U.S. retail sales starts third quarter on an upbeat note
Retail sales rose 1.0% for the month of July. That was much higher than the consensus forecast calling for a more moderate increase of 0.4%. However, June’s figure was revised downward to -0.2% month/month (previously flat). Trade in the auto sector was up 3.6% m/m,...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8625; (P) 0.8643; (R1) 0.8669; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the upside as rise from 0.8413 resumed by breaking through 0.8710. Focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734. Sustained break there will bring stronger...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.40; (P) 147.00; (R1) 147.91; More… Immediate focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 as USD/JPY’s rebound from 141.67 extends. Decisive break there will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 154.19, even as a...
EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.02; (P) 161.81; (R1) 163.02; More… EUR/JPY’s break of 38.2% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 162.42 suggests that fall from 175.41 has completed at 154.40. Rise from there is now seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 175.41....
Retail Sales Is Counterprogramming the Job Report
Summary In the month of July retailers saw a sales increase of $6.8 billion, or 25% of the total gain from the prior two years in a single month. While most of that was an autos bounce after an ugly June, gains were broadly based and thus at odds with reports of a...
Fed’s Musalem: Time may be nearing for policy adjustment
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem indicated today that the balance of risks between inflation and unemployment has shifted, becoming “more balanced”. Speaking at an event, Musalem expressed increased confidence in the inflation outlook, noting that recent data...
GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.05; (P) 188.74; (R1) 189.62; More… GBP/JPY’s break of 38.2% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 190.73 argues that the decline from 208.09 has completed at 180.00 already. Rise from there is now seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern...
Australian Dollar Rises on Strong Job Growth
The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Thursday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6607 in the European session, up 0.16% on the day at the time of writing. Earlier, the Aussie rose as high as 0.6633 (0.48%) before retracting. Australian job growth jumps but...
Retail Sales Strength Sparks US Market Surge, Recession Fears Subside
The US markets reacted positively today to stronger-than-expected retail sales data, which posted its fastest growth in a year and a half. Additionally, better-than-expected jobless claims numbers helped alleviate concerns about weaknesses in the employment market....
US initial jobless claims fall to 227k, vs exp 239k
US initial jobless claims fell -7k to 227k in the week ending August 10, lower than expectation of 239k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -4.5k to 236.5k. Continuing claims fell -7k to 1864k in the week ending August 3. Four-week moving average of...
GBP/USD Analysis: Rate Steady After Key Data Releases
Yesterday, important U.S. inflation data was released, as reported by ForexFactory: → Core CPI (MoM): actual = 0.2%, forecast = 0.2%; previous = 0.1%; → CPI (YoY): actual = 2.9%, forecast = 3.0%; previous = 3.0%. Today, market participants learned about the change in...
NZD/USD Looking for a Bigger Recovery
Looking at the 4-hour time frame of the Kiwi with ticker NZDUSD, we can see a strong rebound after a completed final subwave “v” of C of (C), as Zealand beat jobs data, so seems like a new three-wave A-B-C rally can be in play within higher degree wave (D) that can...
Gold (XAU/USD) Bounces Back After US CPI, DXY Faces Challenges
Gold prices rebounded after a post-CPI selloff, aided by a struggling US Dollar Index. A sustained move above $2500/oz for gold may require an additional catalyst, like geopolitical risks. The DXY faces challenges and is likely to remain subdued, with technical...
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6596; (P) 1.6648; (R1) 1.6748; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as range trading continues. Outlook stays bullish with 1.6474 support intact. On the upside, above 1.6798 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.7180 resistance first....
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8554; (P) 0.8573; (R1) 0.8605; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral first with current retreat, and more consolidations could be seen below 0.8624. But outlook stays bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8382 to 0.8624 at 0.8532...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.02; (P) 161.81; (R1) 163.02; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral and outlook remains bearish with 38.2% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 162.42 intact. On the downside, below 157.71 minor support will bring retest of 154.40 first....
A New Downturn in the Crypto Market
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market retreated 2.9% over the past 24 hours to $2.08 trillion from levels near $2.15 trillion, which had been resistance for the past ten days. Despite moderate optimism in equities following the inflation data, cryptocurrencies...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.05; (P) 188.74; (R1) 189.62; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral and outlook remains bearish with 38.2% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 190.73 intact. On the downside, below 186.46 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the...
FX option expiries for 15 August 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1000 mark. That continues from yesterday and there will be large expiries at the figure level in play again tomorrow. As such, the expiries could offer a bit of...
Aussie Rises on Strong Job Growth, But Gains Limited
Australian Dollar strengthened during Asian session today, buoyed by stronger-than-expected employment growth data. This positive surprise offered some support to Aussie, though gains were limited, failing to push the currency above yesterday’s high. The labor market...
AUD/USD Outlook: Keeps Firm Tone Ahead of US Inflation Data
AUDUSD remains constructive and consolidating Tuesday’s 0.80% advance, as this morning’s RBNZ rate cut by 25 basis points negatively impacted Aussie dollar, but dips were limited, due to strong near-term bullish sentiment on revived risk appetite. Technical studies...
Ethereum Gently Gaining Momentum – Action Forex
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market added 2.2% in the last 24 hours to reach $2.14 trillion, a fresh attempt to climb into the upper half of last month’s trading range from where last week’s sell-off was intensified. Over the past 24 hours, the macroeconomic...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0938; (P) 1.0969; (R1) 1.1024; More….. EUR/USD’s break of 1.1007 confirms resumption of whole rally from 1.0665. Intraday bias is staying on the upside for 100% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1058. Decisive break there could...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2792; (P) 1.2833; (R1) 1.2903; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside at this point. Pull back from 1.3043 could have completed at 1.2664 already. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.3043 resistance first. Firm break there will...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8630; (P) 0.8655; (R1) 0.8673; More…. Breach of 0.8631 minor support argues that USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.8431 might have completed at 0.8701 already. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for retesting 0.8431 low. On the upside, however, firm...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.31; (P) 147.13; (R1) 147.66; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Outlook stays bearish with 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 intact and intraday bias stays neutral. Below 145.42 minor support will...
Market Analysis: AUD/USD Rallies While NZD/USD Trims Gains
AUD/USD is consolidating gains near the 0.6620 zone. NZD/USD is trimming gains and struggling to stay above the 0.6000 pivot zone. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar started a downside correction from 0.6640 against the US...
GBP/USD Shrugs as UK CPI Rises Less Than Expected
The British pound is showing limited movement on Wednesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2844 in the European session, down 0.15% on the day. UK inflation report supports case for September rate cut Headline inflation in the UK rose 2.2% y/y in July, up from 2% in June but...
US: Inflationary Pressures Continue to Ease in July, Solidifying a September Rate Cut
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) in July, bang-on the consensus forecast. On a twelve-month basis, CPI fell to 2.9% (from 3.0% in June). After exerting a measurable drag in each of the two prior months, energy prices were largely flat in...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets July US CPI inflation figures printed very close to consensus. Monthly inflation accelerated both on a headline and on a core level to 0.2% M/M. Details showed food prices rising by 0.2% M/M, energy prices flat, and services (ex. energy) rising by 0.3% M/M....
Soft-Landing, or No Soft-Landing, That Is the Question: Part II
Part II: Quantifying Episodes of Soft-Landing, Stagflation and Recessions Summary In the second part of the series, we quantify episodes of soft-landings, stagflation and recessions during the post-1950 period. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to present...
Is Gold Ready to Sail to All-Time High?
Gold moves sideways; faces resistance near 2,473 Technical signals are positive for a continuation to 2,500 ahead of CPI data Gold repeated its July bounce off the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the four-hour chart to re-examine the 2,473 resistance, which...
Muted Reaction to US CPI, Euro Leads While Kiwi Struggles
The market’s initial reaction to US CPI data has been relatively subdued. While both headline and core CPI readings slowed in July, they remain elevated. This ongoing disinflation is a positive sign for the Fed, but the pace is not rapid enough to justify a larger...
US CPI falls to 2.9% yoy in Jul, core CPI down to 3.2% yoy
US CPI rose 0.2% mom in July, matched expectations. CPI core (all items less food and energy) rose 0.2% mom, matched expectations. Energy prices were unchanged over the month while food prices increased 0.2% mom. For the 12-month period, CPI slowed from 3.0% yoy to...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8529; (P) 0.8548; (R1) 0.8564; More…. EUR/GBP’s break of 0.8567 suggests that corrective pullback from 0.8624 has completed at 0.8530, after hitting 38.2% retracement of 0.8382 to 0.8624 at 0.8532. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting...
GBP/USD Outlook: Cable Dips on Softer Than Expected UK Data, Focus Shifts on US Inflation
Cable fell 0.35% in immediate reaction to softer than expected UK inflation numbers in July. Although the BoE expected inflationary pressure to rise after CPI stayed at 2% target in past two months, weaker than expected July figure adds to expectations for more rate...
USD/JPY Sees Retreat Amid US Dollar Weakness
USD/JPY has retreated from its peak this week, settling at 146.82. The yen gained some strength as the US dollar weakened following July’s lacklustre US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. This report bolstered market expectations for a potential 50 basis point cut by...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.79; (P) 161.29; (R1) 161.94; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral at this point. Outlook stays bearish with 38.2% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 162.42 intact. On the downside, below 157.71 minor support will bring retest of 154.40...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 187.81; (P) 188.67; (R1) 189.74; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Outlook remains bearish with 38.2% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 190.73 intact. On the downside, below 186.46 minor support will turn intraday bias...
USDJPY’s Sideways Trading Might End Abruptly
USDJPY continues to hover around the 146 area Market participants are preparing for the US CPI release Momentum indicators remain mixed USDJPY continues to trade sideways, hovering around the 146.65-147.71 area for the fifth consecutive session. The bears are holding...
Eurozone industrial production falls -0.1% mom in Jun, EU down -0.1% mom
Eurozone industrial production fell -0.1% mom in June, much worse than expectation of 0.4% mom rise. Industrial production increased by 0.7% for intermediate goods, 1.9% for energy, 0.9% for capital goods, and 3.8% for durable consumer goods. Production decreased by...
NZDUSD Hits a Wall at 200-Day SMA
NZDUSD had been in a recovery mode since early August But 200-day SMA rejects advance after dovish RBNZ meeting Oscillators deteriorate, yet remain neutral-to-positive NZDUSD had been steadily regaining ground since the beginning of the month after finding its footing...
FX option expiries for 14 August 10am New York cut
There are a couple of expiries to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are for EUR/USD at the 1.0925 and 1.1035 levels. They former lies near the 200-hour moving average, so there is some technical significance there. However, price action today is largely going...
NZD Tanks After RBNZ Cut, UK and US CPI for Next Volatility Wave
New Zealand Dollar plunged today after RBNZ unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25bps, marking the first reduction in this easing cycle. This move came much earlier than the market’s anticipation of a rate cut in October or November. The selloff gained further momentum...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.00; (P) 160.98; (R1) 161.92; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and outlook stays bearish with 38.2% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 162.42 intact. On the downside, below 157.71 minor support will bring retest of 154.40 first....
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 186.87; (P) 188.10; (R1) 189.15; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral and outlook remains bearish with 38.2% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 190.73 intact. On the downside, below 184.46 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the...
GBPUSD Battles With 50-day SMA
GBPUSD advances after its bounce off 200-day SMA A potential breach of 50-day SMA could improve outlook Oscillators suggest strengthening positive momentum GBPUSD had been on the rise following its deflection at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on August 8....
UK Labour Market Deteriorates Despite Falling Unemployment Rate
The British Pound jumped 0.25% against the Dollar and 0.33% against the Euro due to the employment data. Although key parameters of the report exceeded market expectations, the overall negative trend remains. In the three months to June, the unemployment rate fell to...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0915; (P) 1.0927; (R1) 1.0944; More….. Immediate focus is on 1.0944 minor resistance in EUR/USD. Firm break there will indicate that pullback from 1.1007 has completed at 1.0880 already. Retest of 1.1007 should be seen first. Further break there...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2743; (P) 1.2769; (R1) 1.2790; More… GBP/USD is still capped below 1.2839 resistance despite today’s rally. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.2664 will resume the fall from 1.3043 to 1.2612 support. Decisive break...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets US producer price inflation rose by 0.1% M/M in July for the headline number and stabilized for the gauge excluding food and energy. Both were below consensus (+0.2% M/M), resulting in sharper-than-expected drops in the Y/Y-figures. Headline PPI printed at...
Asian Markets Bounce Back; Eyes on Local Data, Not Just US CPI
Asian equities extend rebound ahead of key data Japanese GDP, Aussie jobs and Chinese indicators on the agenda Any upsets could roil the fragile sentiment A cautious rebound for stocks Stock markets in Asia have not been immune to the global selloff in August amid the...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8623; (P) 0.8667; (R1) 0.8697; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral first. Outlook remains bearish with 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734 intact. On the downside, below 0.8631 minor support will bring retest of 0.8431 first....
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.43; (P) 147.32; (R1) 148.11; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook remains bearish with 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 intact and intraday bias stays neutral. Below 145.42 minor support will turn bias to the...
Dollar Softens after PPI, Kiwi Strong Ahead of RBNZ
Dollar weakens broadly in early US session after July’s PPI came in lower than expected, signaling easing in inflationary pressures. This development was well-received by investors, with stock futures ticking up slightly and 10-year Treasury yield dipping in response....
US PPI at 0.1% mom, 2.2% yoy in Jul, below expectations
US PPI for final demand rose 0.1% mom in July, below expectation of 0.2% mom. PPI goods rose 0.6% while PPI services fell -0.2% mom. PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% mom. For the 12 months ended in July, PPI rose 2.2% yoy, slowed from 2.7% yoy,...
AUD/NZD: A Dovish RBNZ May Maintain Aussie Outperformance Over Kiwi
New Zealand’s core inflation trend has decelerated at a faster pace than Australia. RBNZ may use tomorrow’s monetary policy meeting to offer dovish guidance and bring forward its projected first interest rate cut in H1 2025. A dovish hold by RBNZ may reinforce the...
Gold Price Near Historic High Today
As shown on the XAU/USD chart, the gold price is near $2,460 today, despite the 8th August candle opening around $2,385. This means that in just over three full trading sessions, the price per ounce has risen by approximately 3.3%. It is now only about 1.6% away from...
Cryptocurrency Rally Loses Momentum – Action Forex
Market Picture Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has rallied 1.6% to $2.08 trillion, but in the past few hours, there has been a sell-off from a high of $2.15 – roughly the midpoint of the past 30 days’ range. Although cryptocurrency prices are higher...
Brent Crude Oil Faces Demand Concerns Despite Recent Gains
After five consecutive days of upward movement, Brent crude oil is now experiencing a consolidation phase, with prices retreating slightly to 81.80 USD per barrel on Tuesday. Market sentiment is being influenced by renewed concerns over global oil demand, particularly...
EUR/USD Outlook: In Quiet Mode, Awaiting Economic Data for Fresh Ssignals
EURUSD is holding within a narrow congestion, capped by Fibo resistance at 1.0933 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1139/1.0601), as markets slowed ahead of key release this week – US inflation report. German ZEW economic sentiment (July f/c 32.6 vs June 41.8) due in a while, would...
German ZEW plummets to 19.2, economy breaking down
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment index took a significant hit in August, falling sharply from 41.8 to 19.2, well below the expected 30.6. This marks the steepest monthly decline since July 2022. Current Situation Index also worsened, dropping from -68.9 to -77.3....
GBP/USD Edges Higher as Wage Growth Hits Lowest Level in 2 Years
Unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, with a decrease in both short-term and long-term unemployment. UK wage growth slowed to its lowest level in two years, yet surpassed market expectations. Despite positive jobs data, BoE policymakers warn of potential inflation rebound...
EURUSD Bulls Don’t Want to Give Up
EURUSD maintains sideways move as 1.0940 barrier blocks the way up Technical risk is on the positive side; eyes on 1.0970 too US PPI due at 12:30 GMT; FOMC member Bostic speaks today EURUSD continues to face restrictions near the 1.0940 level and the resistance...
FX option expiries for 13 August 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 mark again. So, that will help to keep a floor on price action at least until we get to the US PPI data later in the day.Similarly, the ones for AUD/USD at...
Pound Strengthens on UK Jobs Data, But Eyes Further Economic Releases
Sterling is making notable gains after UK employment data revealed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate for June. Additionally, July’s figures showed continued growth in payrolled employment and a rebound in wage growth. This robust set of data strengthens the...
Australian Dollar Gains Ground, Eyes Wage Growth
The Australian dollar has started the week in positive territory. AUDUSD is trading at 0.6596 in the European session, up 0.41% on the day at the time of writing. Australian dollar recovers as markets stabilize The Australian dollar has quickly recovered from the...
AUD/USD Outlook: Lifted by Fresh Risk Appetite, Retests Key Resistance Zone
AUDUSD advanced 0.5% in Asian / European trading on Monday, to completely reverse Friday’s drop and generate initial signal of bullish continuation. Fresh strength cracked pivotal barriers at 0.6600 zone (converged 200/100DMA’s / base of rising daily cloud, where...
News of the Week (August 12— August 16): NZDUSD Market Review
Focus on NZDUSD! Exciting trading possibilities are just around the corner. The NZDUSD pair is usually called the “Kiwi,”. It denotes the exchange rate between the New Zealand dollar and the US dollar. It is usually regarded as one significant indicator of the...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.96; (P) 146.89; (R1) 147.49; More… USD/JPY’s rebound from 141.67 extends higher today but stays below 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. Intraday bias stays neutral and outlook remains bearish. Below 145.42 minor support will turn...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8632; (P) 0.8652; (R1) 0.8673; More… USD/CHF’s recovery from 0.8431 extends higher today but stays below 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is still expected. On the downside, below...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2731; (P) 1.2753; (R1) 1.2779; More… Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Another fall is in favor as long as 1.2839 resistance holds. Below 1.2664 will target 1.2612 support. Decisive break there should confirm that...
British Pound Calm ahead of UK Jobs Report
The British pound is drifting on Monday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2768 early in the North American session, up 0.08% on the day. Wage growth expected to slide The UK releases the employment report for the three months to June and we could see signs of a cooling labour...
New Zealand Dollar Higher, Focus on RBNZ
The New Zealand dollar has started the week with gains. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6026 in the North American session, up 0.45% at the time of writing. Will the RBNZ lower rates this week? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and it’s a live meeting as the...
Silver Could Be Bottoming – Action Forex
Silver has been slowing down for the last three months, but drop on 4h time frame is in three waves A-B-C, which indicates for a corrective decline within higher degree wave IV. It’s now potentially finishing final subwave (5) of C at 26,50 – 26,00 strong and key...
US CPI and Retail Sales Data to Test Fed Rate Cut Bets
Investors panicked after NFP report But incoming data eased fears and rate cut bets Still, market pricing remains overly dovish Focus turns to US CPI on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday, at 12:30 GMT Latest data ease recession fears Following the...
MIxed open for the major indices. Dow down. S&P marginally higher. Nasdaq up.
The major US stock indices are opening today mixed. The Dow Industrial Average versus lower. The S&P index is marginally higher while the NASDAQ index is a little better than marginally higher.A snapshot of the major indices nine minutes into the open is showing:...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0906; (P) 1.0919; (R1) 1.0929; More….. Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 1.0776 support. On the upside, above 1.0944 minor resistance...
Yen and Swiss Franc Weaken in Quiet Markets as Focus Shifts to Australian Data
Yen and Swiss Franc weaken slightly in today’s subdued trading environment. With the economic calendar offering little in terms of market-moving events during the European and US sessions, currency movements have been minimal. Meanwhile, Australian and New Zealand...
Hang Seng Index: Medium-Term Bullish Trend Damaged
China’s lacklustre core consumer inflation growth for July suggests the current pace of piecemeal stimulus measures is not sufficient to eradicate deflationary pressures. The “non-abating” deflationary risk scenario pushed the 10-year China sovereign bond yield to a...
OPEC downgrades oil demand growth estimates for 2024
OPEC downgraded its global oil demand forecast for 2024, now expecting an increase of 2.11 million barrels per day (bpd), slightly lower than the 2.25 million bpd projected last month. The organization also adjusted its demand growth estimate for next year, lowering...
Will RBNZ Start Cutting Rates Sooner Than Later
RBNZ could keep interest rates steady but signal easing sooner rather than later Economic picture shows signs of stress but no red flags yet NZDUSD approaches 0.6060-0.6080 resistance territory NZ employment data sway rate cut bets Q2 employment data from New Zealand...
NZD/USD Gains Momentum ahead of RBNZ Meeting
The New Zealand dollar is steadily rising against the US dollar, with the NZD/USD pair reaching 0.6014 as of Monday. The financial markets are gearing up for Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting. Analysts widely anticipate that the RBNZ will maintain...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.96; (P) 146.89; (R1) 147.49; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. While further rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 holds. Below 144.04 minor...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0906; (P) 1.0919; (R1) 1.0929; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains for the moment. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 1.0776 support. On the upside, above 1.0944 minor resistance will bring...
Back in Business – Action Forex
In focus today Danish CPI is due this morning, and we expect inflation to decline from 1.8% in June to 0.9% in July, as last year’s temporary suspension of the electricity fee exits the inflation measure. In the week ahead, we will watch out particularly for US...
Gold on Track to Revisit All-Time High
Gold advances after bouncing off 50-day SMA The bulls eye recent record high as next target Oscillators are cautiously tilted to the upside Gold has been trading back and forth within a range in the past month, unable to adopt a clear directional impetus. In the near...
XAU/USD Outlook: Bulls Hold Grip Ahead of Key US Inflation Data
Gold remains at the front foot and edges higher in early Monday, extending recovery into third straight day. The yellow metal regained ground after last week’s sharp fall, boosted by growing signals that the Fed may opt for 50 basis points rate hike in September. Weak...
FX option expiries for 12 August 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 level. With price action also keeping in between its key hourly moving averages of 1.0890-22 currently, the expiries are likely to help play a role in keeping...
Quiet Forex Start Masks Anticipation of US CPI-Driven Volatility
The forex markets have started the week on a subdued note, typical of a Monday morning in Asia, particularly with Japan on holiday. Yen remains in a consolidation phase, holding steady after its recent gains and staying as the strongest currency this month so far....
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF rebounded strongly after initial dive to 0.9209 last week. But upside is limited by 0.9476 support turned resistance so far. Near term outlook remains bearish for now. On the downside, break of 0.9354 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD retreated sharply after initial surge to 1.7180, but downside is held above 1.6474 support so far. Further rise is still expected. On the upside, above 1.6798 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.7180 resistance first. Firm break there will resume larger up...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP retreated after rising to 0.8624 last week and a short term top could be formed ahead of 0.8643 resistance. Some consolidations could be seen now, with risk of deeper pullback. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8382 to 0.8624 at 0.8532...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY rebounded strongly after initial dive to 154.40 last week. While further rise cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 162.42 holds. On the downside, below 157.71 minor support will bring retest of...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY rebounded after initial dive to 180.00 last week. While further rise cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 190.73 holds. On the downside, below 184.46 minor support will turn intraday bias back to...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD spiked higher to 1.3946 last week but reversed from there. Yet, downside is contained by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3717) so far. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.3790 minor resistance, will retain near...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD rebounded strongly after initial dive to 0.6348 last week. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for further rise. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6614) will target 0.6798 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.6506 minor support will indicate...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF rebounded after initial fall to 0.8431 last week. While further rise cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734 holds. On the downside, below 0.8559 minor support will bring retest of 0.8431 first....
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY rebounded strongly after initial dive to 141.67 last week. While further rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 holds. Below 144.04 minor support will turn bias to the downside for...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD retreated after initial rise to 1.1007 last week and turned into consolidations. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 1.0776 support. On the upside, above 1.0944 minor...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s decline from 1.3043 extended lower last week but recovered after hitting 1.2664. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further fall is in favor as long as 1.2839 resistance holds. Below 1.2664 will target 1.2612 support. Decisive break there...
Market Panic Subsides as Consolidations Take Hold, but Sentiment Remains Fragile
The global financial markets started last week in a state of panic, driven by a sharp selloff in stock markets, with Japan’s Nikkei index experiencing particularly heavy losses. However, as the week progressed, this initial wave of panic appeared to subside, with...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: A Wild Week in a Data Desert
Summary United States: A Wild Week in a Data Desert It was a very quiet week on the U.S. economic data front, but financial markets were anything but calm. Last week’s run of weak U.S. data, capped by a troubling rise in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in nonfarm...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Bumps in the Road
U.S. Highlights Inflation and the labor market are cooling off, but the economy has not yet hit a wall. Despite what markets may be fearing. The ISM services survey showed broad based improvements in July, while falling longer term interest rates are easing financial...
Markets Weekly Outlook – US CPI to Test Markets Following Tumultuous Week
US equities rebounded from a selloff earlier in the week, ending slightly higher. However, caution remains due to upcoming economic data releases. The Japanese Yen is heading for its first losing week in six, impacted by a peak in short-position unwinding and dovish...
Summary 8/12 – 8/16
Monday, Aug 12, 2024 Tuesday, Aug 13, 2024 Wednesday, Aug 14, 2024 Thursday, Aug 15, 2024 Friday, Aug 16, 2024 The post Summary 8/12 – 8/16 appeared first on Action Forex.
A Crypto Test for Risk Appetite
Market Picture Risk appetite played out in the markets on Thursday, adding over 6.4% to the crypto market’s capitalisation in the last 24 hours. The capitalisation peaked at $2.18 trillion in the morning, the highest since last Friday. In just over 24 hours, the price...
Gold Is Back, But Not For Long
Gold has experienced increased volatility over the past seven days, falling 4.4% from Friday’s high to Monday’s low and then rising 2.5% from the low. Much of gold’s recovery on Thursday was in tandem with a massive rally in equities in response to some improvement in...
Gold (XAU/USD) Remains Strong Above $2400/oz as Fed Hints at Upcoming Rate Cuts
Despite a stronger US Dollar yesterday, gold’s upward trend continued, bolstered by the rate cut narrative. The technical outlook for gold indicates further upside potential, with prices possibly reaching between 2440 and 2450 during the US session. The longer-term...
Canada’s jobs down -2.8k in Jul, unemployment rate unchanged at 6.4%
Canada’s employment fell -2.8k in July, much worse than expectation of 26.9k growth. The 62k rise in full-time work was offset by -62k decline in part-time work. Employment rate fell -0.2% to 60.9%. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.4%, below expectation of 6.5%....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2693; (P) 1.2722; (R1) 1.2780; More… GBP/USD dips mildly after hitting 55 4H EMA but stays in range above 1.2664. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Another fall is in favor as long as 1.2839 resistance holds. Below 1.2664 will target...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.96; (P) 146.76; (R1) 148.07; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. While further rise cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 150.88 resistance holds. On the downside, below 144.04 minor support will bring...
USD/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8593; (P) 0.8634; (R1) 0.8707; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment and further decline is still expected. On the downside, below 0.8559 minor support will bring retest of 0.8431 first. Break there will resume the fall...
Week Ahead – US CPI to Test Market Nerves, RBNZ Might Cut Rates
Market turmoil has eased, but will US CPI stir things up again? Crucial week for sterling as UK CPI, GDP and retail sales on the way The RBNZ is edging closer to a rate cut, but will it be next week? Japanese GDP, Australian jobs and Chinese data eyed too US economy...
Is the US Data that Bad to Justify a Rate Cut?
The recent acute market reaction occurred due to increased recession fears Surprise indices point to a more balanced US economic situation Recessions tend to be caused by one-off major events The recent market drop has been attributed to higher chances of a US...
U.S. Inflation Likely Held Steady in July
All eyes will be on Wednesday’s U.S. inflation print after a larger-than-expected increase in the unemployment rate and softening in the manufacturing sector a week ago heightened concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to respond with more aggressive interest rate...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0886; (P) 1.0915; (R1) 1.0949; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 1.0776 support. On the upside, above 1.0944 minor resistance will...
Canada’s Job Market Softens Further in July
For the second straight month, Canadian employment was essentially unchanged (-2.8k), disappointing expectations for a modest 25k gain. Full-time positions rebounded (+62k), but were offset by sizeable part-time job losses (-64k). The unemployment rate also remained...
Safe-Haven Currencies Edge Higher, But Momentum Weak
As we move into US session, safe-haven currencies like Yen, Swiss Franc, and Dollar are showing modest gains, driven by weaker stock futures and treasury yields. However, momentum behind these currencies remains unconvincing, with trading sluggish across the board....
Fed’s Collins: Gradual rate cuts expected as inflation moderates
Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicated in an interview with the Providence Journal that if current economic data trends continue as expected, it may soon be appropriate to start adjusting monetary policy by “easing how restrictive the policy is”. She emphasized...
EUR/GBP : 200DMA So Far Holds Pullback from New Multi-Week High
EURGBP dips further on Friday, extending pullback from new 3 ½ month high (0.8624) posted previous day. Fresh weakness cracked pivotal 200DMA (0.8555), with sustained break here to add to bearish signals, as reversal pattern is forming on daily chart. However,...
GBP/USD: Bullish Bias Above Rising Daily Cloud
Cable remains at the front foot and extends recovery on Friday morning, after fresh bulls registered break and close above the top of rising daily cloud. Fading US recession fears and solid Chinese economic data revived risk sentiment while sterling gets support from...
EUR/USD Stabilises Amid Fed Speculation and Absence of Major Economic Data
The EUR/USD pair has found some stability at around 1.0921 this Friday, following a week marked by high volatility. Market participants have been adjusting their positions in response to speculations concerning the US economy’s potential rapid recession and subsequent...
Canadian Dollar Rallies, Jobs Report Looms
The Canadian dollar has shined this week, posting gains over the past four days and rising 1%. Will the impressive rally continue? In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3732, unchanged on the day. Canadian job growth expected to rebound Canada wraps...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.56; (P) 160.23; (R1) 161.48; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Outlook stays bearish with 162.87 resistance intact. On the downside, below 157.71 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Break of 154.40...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 185.54; (P) 186.71; (R1) 188.93; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral and outlook remains bearish as long as 190.48 resistance holds. On the downside, below 183.10 minor support will bring retest of 180.00 first. Break there will resume the...
USDCAD Bears Take a Break But Are Not Done Yet
USDCAD experiences worst week of the year Selling pressure might persist; eyes on 1.3730 Canadian employment figures due at 12:30 GMT Since reaching a 22-month high of 1.3945, USDCAD has been steadily dropping towards its 50-day SMA at 1.3730, making it the...