Forex
Crude Oil Price Fell Further on Growing Demand Concerns
WTI oil price fell in early Wednesday as unexpected rise in US crude inventories further soured the sentiment on rising demand concerns. Fresh weakness emerged below the base of rising daily Ichimoku cloud and broke through pivots at $78.16 and $77.66 (100DMA / 50%...
WTI oil futures restart downtrend
WTI oil futures fall to two-month low on rising US stockpiles Short-term risk bearish, but market could be oversold A clear close below 77.44 could activate fresh selling WTI oil futures slid to a two-month low of 76.99 on Wednesday after their continuous attempts to...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0739; (P) 1.0764; (R1) 1.0779; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for the moment. More consolidations could be seen below 1.0810. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0731) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2481; (P) 1.2528; (R1) 1.2554; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point. Further rally is in favor with 1.2471 support intact. On the upside, above 1.2633 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 1.2708 resistance next. However,...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9061; (P) 0.9078; (R1) 0.9100; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9099) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets In yet another dull trading day the weak SEK (cf. below) and JPY stand out. The yen is not impressed by Ueda ramping up warnings. It began in Asian dealings, where the BoJ governor said that a policy response (i.e. rate hike) could be needed depending on the...
US Indices Heading Towards Highs
US indices have been gaining daily since the beginning of May. They have found strength amid relatively weak job reports and quite upbeat quarterly earnings. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 indices are just 1.5% below the all-time highs set in March. The market downturn...
ECB’s Wunsch sees path to start rate cut, but not preset course of action
Speaking in Frankfurt, ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch indicated the even though the outlook remains “foggy”, he saw a “path for initiating rate cuts this year.” He added that the upcoming June meeting would provide clearer insights into wage and service...
April CPI Preview: The Clock Is Ticking for a September Cut
Summary A string of uncomfortably-hot inflation readings in the first quarter leaves a narrow window for inflation to downshift before a late summer rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is no longer on the table. We expect the April CPI report to...
ECB’s Holzmann decisively against quick and strong interest rate cuts
In an interview published today, ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann indicated that while he is open to rate cut in June, “I see absolutely no reason for us to cut key interest rates too quickly, too strongly,” he said. Holzmann also acknowledged the...
German Industrial Production Slide Brings Closer ECB’s Rate Cut
German industrial production continues to decline. The rate of contraction in March was slightly better than the average forecasts but maintained the downward trend. The index of industrial production fell by 0.4% in March and by 3.3% y/y, having lost in annual terms...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.11; (P) 154.43; (R1) 155.01; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 151.86 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20 high. Further rise would be seen to 157.98 resistance. On...
Dollar Making Progress in Quiet Markets, Yen Weakening Further
The financial markets are relatively quiet entering into US session. Despite a significant downturn in Japanese equities earlier, European markets have remained resilient, with major indices post modest gains. In the commodities sector, oil prices continue their near...
Canadian Dollar Slips Despite Strong Ivey PMI
USD/CAD has edged higher on Wednesday and is up 0.25%, trading at 1.3760 at the time of writing. Canada’s Ivey PMI climbed sharply in April to 63.0, up from 57.5 in March and beating the forecast of 58.1. This marked the highest level since May 2022, indicating that...
WTI crude trends downward amid revised EIA supply and demand forecasts
WTI crude oil is extending its near term decline today on expectation of higher production and lower demand ahead. If WTI cannot reclaim 80 mark in short term, there is prospect of downside acceleration through 70 next. In its latest report, the US Energy Information...
EURJPY Flirts With 167.00 Again
EURJPY recoups previous losses Rebounds off ascending trend line Surpasses short-term SMAs Oscillators gain momentum EURJPY is flirting with the 167.00 round number after the bounce off the long-term rising trend line and the 164.00 handle. The pair has been...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8575; (P) 0.8587; (R1) 0.8611; More… EUR/GBP’s break of 0.8582 resistance suggests that fall from 0.8643 has completed at 0.8529. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.8643 resistance. Firm break there will resume the choppy rebound from...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.82; (P) 166.19; (R1) 166.73; More… EUR/JPY’s break of 55 4H EMA (now at 166.14) suggests that pull back from 171.58 has completed at 164.01 already. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern. Intraday bias is back on...
GBPUSD Pulls Back After Testing 50-day SMA
GBPUSD reverses lower after 50-day SMA curbs advance Violates both the 200-day SMA and descending trendline Momentum indicators are neutral-to-negative GBPUSD had been in a recovery mode following its bounce off the five-month bottom of 1.2298, with the price...
Japanese Yen Weakens Despite Government Warnings
The USD/JPY pair is on the rise again this Wednesday, recovering more than half of its previous losses despite ongoing warnings from Japanese authorities about sharp fluctuations in the yen. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated today that the government is...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 192.94; (P) 193.54; (R1) 194.08; More.. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 193.86) will bring stronger rebound back toward 197.40 resistance. On the downside, below 191.34 will...
Gold Stands Above 2,300 – Action Forex
Gold retains sideways move in 4-hour chart MACD and RSI look weak Gold prices are holding near the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) and the mid-level of the Bollinger band, trading within a sideways channel of 2,277-2,332 in the 4-hour chart. According to...
FX option expiries for 8 May 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of for the day. As such, traders will have to get stuck with the push and pull mood after the events from last week. The dollar is steadier as the overall risk mood appears to be more muted in the last few sessions.If...
Dollar Recovery Continues, But Bulls Struggle to Secure Full Control
Dollar’s rebound gained some momentum in Asian session today on resurgence of risk aversion. Selloff in Japan was most notable where key industry leaders like Fast Retailing, Nintendo, and Toyota saw substantial declines. The sentiment was further dampened after...
UK100 Analysis: Stock Market Optimistic Ahead of Bank of England News
On Monday, the UK observed a bank holiday for May Day, and on Tuesday, the stock market demonstrated accumulated optimism. The FTSE index (UK100) today surpassed the 8300 mark. Additionally: → The opening occurred with a bullish gap; → On the daily chart of UK100,...
Japanese Yen to Stay in Recovery Mode, While Yields Turning from Resistance
We warned our members about limited weakness and recovery on Japanese yen right before intervention. As you can see, yen is already recovering because US 10Yr Yields are already turning down from resistance, while Japan 10Yr Yields are barely trying to follow due to...
Bitcoin Can’t Accelerate But Won’t Give Up Trying
Market picture The crypto market capitalisation fell by 1.7% in 24 hours to $2.29 trillion, as Bitcoin lost 1.1% and Ethereum – 3%, but Solana has added 4%. However, the latter is noticeably out of step, with most of the other coins going down. On Monday, Bitcoin...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0753; (P) 1.0772; (R1) 1.0789; More… EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.0810 temporary top and intraday bias stays neutral. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0725) holds. On...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2535; (P) 1.2565; (R1) 1.2591; More… GBP/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.2633 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further rise remains in favor as long as 1.2471 support holds. Above 1.2633 will resume the...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9043; (P) 0.9056; (R1) 0.9076; More…. USD/CHF is staying in consolidation above 0.9005 temporary low and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9101) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.12; (P) 153.57; (R1) 154.34; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 154.79) will bring stronger rebound towards 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 151.86 will resume...
GBP/USD: Action Slows Ahead of BoE Policy Decision on Thursday
Cable is holding within a narrow range on Tuesday as traders await fresh signals from the key economic event for sterling this week- BoE monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Data released today (Apr UK construction PMI well above expectations and house prices inched...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets There’s nothing to break the deadlock for now. Last week’s correction higher in US Treasuries and lower in USD following the Fed-payrolls combo isn’t met by real follow-up action this week. A very light eco calendar supports the current standstill. Lower...
EURUSD Returns Within a Sideways Range
EURUSD returns within range between 1.0725 and 1.0930 MACD and RSI detect a lack of directional momentum For the bears to recharge, a break below 1.0725 may be needed The outlook may turn bullish if the price breaks above 1.0930 EURUSD has been in a recovery mode...
Yen Extends Losses, Fed Members Cautious
The Japanese yen is down for a second straight day on Tuesday. USD/JPY has risen 0.45%, up 154.59, up 0.45% at the time of writing. The yen is down 1% this week after soaring 3.4% against the dollar a week earlier. The markets are still buzzing after Japan’s Ministry...
Dollar Strengthens Modestly as Forex Markets Quiet
The forex markets are displaying some calmness today. While Dollar is trading as the strongest performer, it lacks clear upside momentum indicating a reversal of the decline started last week. With no significant economic data expected from the US for the remainder of...
Australian Dollar Weakens as RBA Says No Rate Hikes Planned
The Australian dollar has lost ground on Tuesday. AUD/USD has dropped by 0.31%, trading at 0.6604 in the European session at the time of writing. RBA stays pat but wary of inflation There was no surprise as the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at...
Brent Crude Oil Experiences Modest Uptick Amid Mixed Market Signals
Brent crude oil is seeing a slight increase on Tuesday, priced around $83.57 per barrel. The market remains close to two-month lows, caught between optimism for a peaceful resolution to the Middle East conflict and concerns over crude oil inventories in the United...
AUD/NZD: Aussie Medium-Term Outperformance Against Kiwi Intact Supported by RBA
Today’s RBA monetary policy decision statement has kept the possibility of a rate hike before 2024 ends “alive”. The narrowing of the discount between Australia-New Zealand sovereign bonds yield spread has supported the potential continuation of the AUD/NZD...
UK PMI construction hits 14-month high but hiring trend subdued
UK PMI Construction surged from 50.2 to 53.0 in April, marking its most robust reading since February 2023. According to S&P Global, this growth was primarily driven by increased activity in commercial projects and civil engineering. However, house building...
Gold Attempts Recovery to Only Face Limitations Again
Gold stays trapped below 2,325 after Monday’s bounce Technical signals reflect persisting caution Gold had a positive start to the week, bouncing back above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), but the bullish attempt was not strong enough to drive the...
Pound Shrugs as Construction PMI Jumps
The British pound is slightly lower on Tuesday. GBP/USD is down 0.21%, trading at 1.2535 in the European session at the time of writing. The UK construction PMI jumped to 53.0 in April, up from 50.2 in March and above the forecast of 50.4. This is only the second...
Eurozone retail sales rises 0.8% mom in Mar, EU up 1.2% mom
Eurozone retail sales volume grew 0.8% mom in March, above expectation of 0.6% mom. Volume of retail trade increased for food, drinks, tobacco by 1.2%, for automotive fuel in specialised stores by 2.0%. Volume was stable for non-food products (except automotive fuel)....
RBA on Gold and Remains Vigilant to the Upside
Rates unchanged as expected, as Board balances near-term inflation risks with desire to avoid recession. As expected, the RBA Board left the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% following its May meeting but strengthened its rhetoric around upside inflation risks. The...
RBA’s Lack of Hawkishness Weakens Aussie, Yen’s Retreat Continues
In the aftermath of RBA’s decision to maintain interest rates unchanged and the absence of explicit hawkish signals, Australian Dollar weakens mildly. Despite notable upgrades in inflation forecasts, the central bank opted for a cautious approach, refraining from...
FX option expiries for 7 May 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0725 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance but could play a role in keeping price action more sticky if we do see more of a downside shove later in...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0720; (P) 1.0766; (R1) 1.0809; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Fall from 1.0980 could have completed with three waves down to 1.0601. Further rally is expected and firm break of 100% projection of 1.0601 to...
Markets Weigh Dovish NFP Report
In focus today Today, Swedish Service PMIs for April are released at 8:30 CET. All its subindices were above the 50 marks in March. Although price index for raw materials and intermediate goods is lower compared to a year ago, it was still significantly higher...
All’s Well That Ends Well
Friday’s US jobs data brightened up the mood among Federal Reserve (Fed) doves, as both the NFP, unemployment rate and wages pointed at a slowing labour market in April. The US economy added 175K new nonfarm jobs last month, the wages grow less than 4% – which is...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9001; (P) 0.9055; (R1) 0.9104; More…. Outlook in USD/CHF is unchanged and intraday bias stays on the downside. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8993) will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883. On the upside,...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.95; (P) 152.90; (R1) 153.92; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 154.95) will bring stronger rebound towards 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 151.86 will resume...
Yen Rally Fizzles as US Dollar Climbs
The Japanese yen is sharply lower on Monday after stringing together a three-day rally. USD/JPY is trading at 153.92, up 0.62% at the time of writing. The yen took traders on a roller-coaster ride last week. The Japanese yen fell below the 160 level on Monday,...
USDJPY – Initial Reversal Signal Requires More Work at the Upside for Confirmation
USDJPY edges higher on Monday after a pullback from new record high (160.19) was contained by strong Fibo support at 151.72 (61.8% retracement of 146.48/160.19 upleg, reinforced by 55DMA). Strong rejection here left a Hammer candle on Friday, initial signal of...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2491; (P) 1.2564; (R1) 1.2619; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Fall from 1.2892 could have completed with three waves down to 1.2298. Further rise should be seen and break of 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0720; (P) 1.0766; (R1) 1.0809; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside at this point. Fall from 1.0980 could have completed with three waves down to 1.0601. Further rally is expected and firm break of 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0752...
Euro Edges Higher as Eurozone Data Improves
The euro has started the new trading week quietly. EUR/USD is up 0.23%, trading at 1.0787 in the North American session at the time of trading. Eurozone investor confidence shows slight improvement The eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index took a small step...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets With Japanese and US markets closed, Europe stood on its own to look for direction after Friday’s yield decline in the wake of weaker than expected US payrolls and services ISM. US markets again considering two potential Fed rate cuts (Sept +/- 90% discounted,...
Focus on RBA as Australian Dollar Maintains Strength
As the market transitions into US session, Australian Dollar maintains its position as the strongest currency of the day. While no significant economic data is expected from the US or Canada, the focus shifts to appearances by SNB Chair Thomas Jordan, as well as Fed...
Short-Term Technical Picture for Dollar Turned More Neutral
Markets US data on Friday (almost) perfectly fitted the dovish post-Fed market momentum. After several consensus-beating monthly releases, the US economy in April ‘only’ added 175k jobs, the slowest growth in six months. US wage growth also eased with Average Hourly...
AUD/USD: Bulls Hold Grip Ahead of RBA Policy Meeting on Tuesday
AUDUSD keeps firm tone on Monday, despite Friday’s spike and subsequent pullback, though with initial warning that traders may opt for a partial profit taking after strong rally in past two days, when the pair advanced 2%. Stretched daily studies add to signals of...
Crypto Market Tries to Break Local Downtrend
Crypto market capitalisation has been up 2% over the past seven days and has added over 13% from the lows of the 1st of May. A timid bottom formation on Wednesday was followed by a modest rebound on Thursday and more robust buying on Friday after the monthly US jobs...
Eurozone PMI services finalized at 53.3, highest in 11 months
Eurozone’s PMI services index was finalized at to 53.3 in April, marking a notable improvement from March’s 51.5. PMI Composite was finalized at 51.7, up from the previous month’s 50.3 Both reached the highest levels in 11 months. Notable country-level performances on...
Eurozone PPI falls -0.4% mom, -7.8% yoy in Mar
Eurozone PPI fell -0.4% mom, -7.8% yoy in March. For the month, industrial producer prices increased by 0.1% for intermediate goods, 0.1% for capital goods, 0.1% for durable consumer goods, and 0.4% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices decreased by -1.8% for energy....
AUD/USD Hits One-month High, RBA Decision Next
The Australian dollar has started the week with modest gains. AUD/USD is up 0.25%, trading at 0.6624 in the European session at the time of writing. The Aussie is coming off a strong week, having gained 1.19%. RBA widely expected to pause The Reserve Bank of Australia...
Gold Technical: A Floor May Have Been Formed for the Bulls
Stagflation risk is still lingering as indicated by the latest April US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI data. A not fully priced-in stagflation risk scenario may support another bullish impulsive upmove sequence for Gold (XAU/USD). Watch the key medium-term pivotal...
Eurozone Sentix rises to -3.6, window for ECB rate cut limited
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose from -5.9 to -3.6 in May, above expectation of -4.8. This marks the seventh consecutive increase and the highest level since February 2022. Additionally, Current Situation Index climbed from -16.3 to -14.3, marking seven...
Yen Weakens Amidst Subdued Trading, Aussie Up ahead of RBA
Yen weakens broadly in Asian session, albeit in a subdued market environment due to Japan’s holiday. Despite this, the selloff in the Japanese currency remains relatively contained, with traders vigilant of market intervention by Japan. While 160 level against Dollar...
FX option expiries for 6 May 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first one being for EUR/USD at 1.0750, so that could hold price action from veering off too far during the session. But with the dollar pressured, it could also act as a minor floor before rolling off...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: What’s Wrong with the US Soft Landing? The headline of our last review stated that inflation remains stubborn, and the US GDP is slowing. Newly arrived data have only confirmed these assertions. A crucial inflation measure that the Federal Reserve follows –...
Sanctions Reach Won’t Disrupt The Dollar’s Reserve Currency Status
Summary In recent times, the U.S. dollar’s status as the global reserve currency has been questioned, more so now that the reach of U.S. sanctions capabilities has been expanded to seize foreign government dollar assets. But despite the risk of having assets...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6742 continued last week despite interim strong rebound. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. This decline is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Further fall should be seen to expected to 1.6127 support, or...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s rebounded strongly last week after initial fall to 0.8529. Initial bias remains neutral this week with focus on 0.8582 resistance. Further decline is expected as long as 0.8582 resistance holds. Below 0.8529 will target 0.8491/7 support zone. However,...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY reversed after rising to 200.53 last week and fell sharply since then. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 191.34) will extend the fall from 200.53, to 61.8% retracement of 178.32 to 200.53 at 186.80. On the...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD’s correction from 1.3845 extended to 1.3608 last week, but recovered after drawing support from 55 D EMA (now at 1.3616). Initial bias is neutral this week first. Strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.3782 resistance, will retain near term...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6361 continued last week despite interim pull back. Breach of 0.6643 resistance affirms the case that fall from 0.6870 has completed with three waves down to 0.6361. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.6361 to...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.2298 resumed by breaking through 1.2568 last week. The strong break of 55 D EMA suggest that fall from 1.2892 has completed with three waves down to 1.2298. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Break of 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY reversed after spiking higher to 160.20 last week, and fell sharply since then. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper fall. But strong support should be seen from 150.87 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Above 153.81 minor...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s rise from 1.0601 resumed last week and the strong break of 55 D EMA argues that fall from 1.1138 might have completed. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0752 from 1.0648 at 1.0799 will pave the way to...
Dollar Falls as Prospects of Two Fed Rate Cuts This Year Reemerge
Dollar concluded last week with significant losses, influenced by a set of factors that realigned market expectations and investor sentiment. A pivotal moment came with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s much less-hawkish-than-feared remarks at the FOMC press conference,...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
Despite edging higher initial to 0.9223 last week, USD/CHF was rejected by 0.9243 key resistance and fell sharply since then. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8989) will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY reversed after initial rise to 171.58 last week and fell sharply. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 163.94) will extend the fall from 171.58 to 61.8% retracement of 153.15 to 171.58 at 160.19. On the upside,...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s rebound from 0.9563 should have completed at 0.9835 last week after rejection by 0.9847 resistance. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Fall from 0.9835 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9847, and should target 0.9563...
Summary 5/6 – 5/10
Monday, May 6, 2024 Tuesday, May 7, 2024 Wednesday, May 8, 2024 Thursday, May 9, 2024 Friday, May 10, 2024 The post Summary 5/6 – 5/10 appeared first on Action Forex.
Canadian Jobs Data to Show Further Labour Market Softening
The Canadian labour market report will be watched closely next Friday for further signs of deterioration in the country’s economic backdrop. We look for an increase of 15,000 workers after a small 2,000 drop in employment in March. But the unemployment rate will hold...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Yen Falls to 34-Year Low, Prompting Possible BoJ Intervention
Summary United States: April Brings Signs of Cooling in Economic Growth Q2 began on a softer note. Employment growth was sturdy in April, but the 175K jobs added was the smallest gain since October. The below-consensus gain was accompanied by an increase in the...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Holding Steady for Longer
U.S. Highlights The Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady this week and signaled that rates will likely remain higher for longer. The U.S. jobs engine slowed in April, adding 175k jobs. The unemployment rate rose modestly to a still low 3.9%. Last year’s...
US NFP grows only 175k, unemployment rate rises to 3.9%
US Non-Farm Payroll employment grew 175k in April, well below expectation of 243k. It’s also way lower than the average gain of 242k in the prior 12 months. Unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%, above expectation of 3.8%. Labor force participation rate was...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9079; (P) 0.9126; (R1) 0.9155; More…. USD/CHF’s sharp fall and strong break of 0.9087 support confirms short term topping at 0.9223, after first rejection from 0.9243 key resistance. Intraday bias is back on the downside, and deeper fall would be...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.37; (P) 154.33; (R1) 155.60; More… USD/JPY’s fall from 160.20 short term top continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 151.71. Strong support should be seen from 150.87 resistance...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2490; (P) 1.2517; (R1) 1.2563; More… GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.2298 resumed by breaking through 1.2568 resistance and intraday bias is back on the upside. Strong break of 55 D EMA suggest that fall from 1.2892 has completed with three waves down to...
US ISM services falls to 49.4, back in contraction
US ISM Services PMI fell from 51.4 to 49.4 in April, well below expectation of 52.3. That’s the first contraction reading in after 15 months of growth. Business activity/production fell sharply from 57.4 to 50.9. New orders fell from 54.4 to 52.2. Employment tumbled...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Yields this morning cautiously continued the downtrend after Powell’s rather mild assessment at the press conference on Wednesday. The Fed chair indicated that, despite disinflation making little progress of late, keeping the policy rate a while longer at...
Weekly Focus – Spring Has Brought a More Muted Euro Area Price Pressure
Longer dated yields edged a bit lower in a week with few data surprises and no surprises from the Fed. In FX markets, yen trading has been the most action packed with USD/JPY touching 160 for the first time since 1990, triggering what looks like intervention from...
Week Ahead – BoE and RBA Decisions Headline a Calm Week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions BoE – No rate cuts yet Britain’s economy seems to have escaped the shallow...
Could BoE Adopt a More Dovish Stance on Thursday?
The BoE meets on Thursday; no interest rate change is expected Quarterly projections could support market expectations for rate cuts Pound in need of a boost against the euro Decision time for the BoE The Bank of England will hold its third gathering for 2024 on...
Bank of England Preview – Setting the Stage for a June Cut
We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% on 9 May, which is in line with consensus and current market pricing. Overall, we expect the MPC to soften its communication, priming the markets for imminent start to a cutting cycle. We...
April Showers on the Jobs Market
Summary The employment situation report for April kicked off the second quarter with signs that the labor market is cooling. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175K in the month, below consensus expectations for a 240K gain, while the unemployment rate rose a tenth to...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0689; (P) 1.0710; (R1) 1.0745; More… EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0601 resumed by breaking through 1.0752 and intraday bias back on the upside. Strong break of 55 D EMA suggests that fall from 1.0980 has completed with three waves down to 1.0601....
US: Job Gains Lose Some Momentum in April, Unemployment Rate Ticks Up to 3.9%
Non-farm employment rose by 175k in April, below the consensus forecast of 240k. Job gains in the two prior months were also revised lower by a combined 22k. Private payrolls rose 167k, with most of the gains concentrated in health care & social assistance (87k),...
Comprehensive Miss in Non-Farm Payroll Data Sends Dollar Plummeting
Dollar falls steeply in early US session following a disappointing non-farm payroll report that fell short of market expectations across key metrics including job growth, unemployment rate, and wage growth. DOW futures surge over 500 pts at the same time while 10-year...
UK PMI services finalized at 55, indicating 0.4% quarterly GDP growth
UK PMI Services was finalized at 55.0 in April, marking a significant improvement from March’s 53.1 and representing the highest level since May 2023. This level of activity, the highest since May 2023, signals robust growth in the sector, with activity and new work...
Eurozone unemployment rate unchanged at 6.5%, EU dips to 6.0%
Eurozone unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.5% in March, matched expectations. EU unemployment rate fell from 6.1% to 6.0%. Eurostat estimates that 13.258m persons in the EU, of whom 11.087m in the euro area, were unemployed in March 2024. Full Eurozone unemployment...
Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Attempt Another Recovery
AUD/USD is eyeing a steady increase above the 0.6555 resistance. NZD/USD is also rising and could extend its increase above the 0.6000 resistance zone. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar is moving higher from the 0.6465 zone...
EUR/USD: Bulls Hold Grip and Pressure Pivotal Barriers, US Labor Data Eyed for Fresh Signals
The Euro keeps firm tone and extends gains into third consecutive day, pressuring key resistances at 1.0750 zone (50% retracement of 1.0885/1.0601 / daily Kijun-sen). Firm break here to generate fresh bullish signal for extension of the bull-leg from 1.0601 (Apr 16)...
Nasdaq 100: Sandwiched, Watch US 10-Year Treasury Yield Next
Nasdaq 100 has exhibited short-term intraday wild gyrations of 3% to 4% in opposite directions since last week. Today’s data focus will be on US non-farm payrolls and ISM Services PMI for April to offer clues on whether the stagflation risk narrative is still alive....
USD/JPY Calm Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls
The Japanese yen has extended its gains on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 153.26, down 0.27% at the time of writing. It has been a week to remember as the yen has soared 3.2% against the dollar. The yen fell below the 160 level earlier in the week, setting another...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.09; (P) 193.43; (R1) 194.99; More.. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 191.42) will extend the fall from 200.53, as correction to rise from 178.32, to 61.8% retracement of 178.32...
Bitcoin’s Downtrend, Solana and Ethereum Form Double Bottom
Market picture Crypto market capitalisation rose 3.3% in 24 hours to $2.22 trillion. Local capitalisation bottomed near $2.10 trillion, confirming a sequence of declining local lows (2.3 in March, 2.25 in April) and highs (2.76 in mid-March, 2.67 in early April and...
FX option expiries for 3 May 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD seen at 1.0700 and 1.0750. The expiries there should help to keep price action in range in the session ahead, at least until we get to the US non-farm payrolls. But keep in mind...
Dollar Weakness Continues as Focus Shifts to Non-Farm Payroll Data
Dollar weakens broadly in Asian session, continuing its selloff from the previous night, as influenced by rebound in US stocks and falling treasury yields. The focus is now squarely on today’s non-farm payroll report, a key indicator closely monitored by Fed...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9128; (P) 0.9176; (R1) 0.9207; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is still in favor as long as 0.9087 support holds. On the upside, above 0.9223 will resume larger rally to 0.9243 resistance. Decisive...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.27; (P) 155.13; (R1) 157.26; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as correction from 160.20 is in progress. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 157.98 resistance holds. Deeper pullback would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 152.25), and...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2481; (P) 1.2516; (R1) 1.2564; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, above 1.2568 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2578). Sustained break there will argue that fall from...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0664; (P) 1.0699; (R1) 1.0748; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 1.0752 will resume the rebound from 1.0601. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0770) will argue that fall...
Canada’s Trade Accounts Register a $2.3 Billion Deficit in March
Canada’s merchandise trade balance swung to a $2.3 billion deficit in March, while February’s surplus was revised lower to $476 million. Exports, which fell by 5.3% in March, gave back most of last month’s hefty gain. The contribution to the decline was broad-based,...
USD/CHF Makes a Temporary Reversal After Swiss Inflation Jumps
Swiss CPI figures released earlier today came out above expectations, at 1.4%, leading to a reversal of some recent losses for the Swiss franc against other currencies. Observing the USD/CHF pair, we notice a significant intraday drop that appears to be an impulsive...
GBPJPY Returns to Pre-intervention Levels
GBPJPY tries to record another red candle, well below its recent record high level The BoJ intervenes again since the Fed remains concerned about inflation Momentum indicators are mixed, stochastics acknowledge the bearish pressure GBPJPY is hovering around the busy...
Currency Markets an Ocean of Calm
Markets US Treasury yields ease a few more bps in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC policy meeting. Markets were bracing for a hawkish surprise from chair Powell following a string of higher-than-expected inflation readings and ongoing economic resilience. Its absence...
RBA Decision: Will a Rate Hike be Back on the Table?
RBA meets amid uptick in Australian inflation Muddied economic outlook may complicate policy path Aussie remains choppy ahead of Tuesday’s decision (04:30 GMT) Inflation setback The Reserve Bank of Australia is no stranger to policy flip-flops and the May decision may...
Swiss Franc Rebounds on Strong Inflation Data, Yen Standing Tall
Swiss Franc saw a significant rebound in European session, driven by stronger-than-expected inflation figures for April. Despite this upside surprise, inflation remained within SNB’s target range of 0-2% for the eleventh consecutive month. Currently, economists are...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8539; (P) 0.8549; (R1) 0.8562; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral and some more consolidations would be seen above 0.8529 temporary low. But further decline is expected as long as 0.8582 resistance holds. Below 0.8529 will target...
US initial jobless claims unchanged at 208k, vs exp 212k
US initial jobless claims was unchanged at 208k in the week ending April 27, lower than expectation of 212k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -3.5k to 210k. Continuing claims was unchanged at 1774k in the week ending April 20. Four-week moving average...
EUR/GBP outlook: Thin Daily Cloud Provides a Lot of Headwinds and Keeps Risk of Recovery Stall
Two-day recovery seems to be running out of steam, following repeated failure to break above thin daily cloud, with long upper shadows on daily candles, warning of persisting pressure. Technical picture on daily chart is bearishly aligned as MA’s remain in full...
USD/JPY Slides – Did Tokyo Intervene?
It has been a remarkable week for the yen, which has exhibited sharp swings throughout the week. The Japanese yen fell as much as 1% earlier and on Thursday but has pared most of those losses. USD/JPY has risen 0.38% to 155.19 at the time of writing. In the Asian...
Brent Crude Oil Hits Seven-Week Low
Brent crude oil prices have dropped to $83.95 per barrel on Thursday, marking the lowest level in seven weeks. This decline follows recent US statistics indicating a significant increase in crude oil inventories and production. According to the Department of Energy,...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.45; (P) 166.06; (R1) 168.06; More… EUR/JPY’s fall from 171.58 resumed and dipped to 164.04 but quickly recovered. Further fall is now in favor as long as 168.64 resistance holds, as a correction to rise from 153.15. Sustained break of 55 D EMA...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.01; (P) 194.22; (R1) 196.66; More.. GBP/JPY’s fall from 200.53 resumed and hit 191.77 before recovering. For now, further decline is in favor as long as 197.40 minor resistance holds, as correction to rise from 178.32. Sustained break of 55 D...
Bullish Pressure in AUDUSD Lingers
AUDUSD in the green again today, above the 50-day SMA The bullish tendency manifesting since the April low persists Momentum indicators mostly mixed; stochastics could send a bullish signal AUDUSD is recording another green candle as the market appears to be relieved...
USD/JPY: US Dollar Weakens After Statements from Federal Reserve Chair
Last night, the Federal Reserve’s decision regarding interest rates was published, which, as expected, remained unchanged at 5.5%. The subsequent press conference by Powell was of particular interest to market participants. According to CNBC, during the conference,...
Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 45.7, deepens recession despite bright spots in Spain and Netherlands
Eurozone’s manufacturing sector remains entrenched in recession as April’s PMI figures highlight ongoing challenges and disparities within the region. The overall Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone was finalized at 45.7, a slight decrease from March’s 46.1. Among the...
FX option expiries for 2 May 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of for the day, as highlighted in bold.And they are both for EUR/USD at 1.0700 and 1.0750 respectively. With traders now slowly turning their attention to the US jobs report tomorrow, the expiries should lend a hand to keep price...
Sentiment Stabilizes after FOMC, Yen Jumps Again on Alleged Strategic Intervention
Markets sentiment in the US stabilized overnight, responding positively to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s less hawkish-than-anticipated remarks in the post-FOMC press conference. DOW closed slightly up, while S&P 500 and NASDAQ saw mild losses only. Treasury yields and...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2465; (P) 1.2517; (R1) 1.2544; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, above 1.2568 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2578). Sustained break there will argue...
USD/JPY Calm Ahead of Fed Decision
Japanese yen is trading quietly on Wednesday. USD/JPY is trading at 157.68, down 0.07% at the time of writing. Fed expected to hold rates The Federal Reserve meets later today and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged for a sixth straight time. The target range...
(FED) Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack...
Fed stands pat, acknowledge lack of progress in disinflation
Fed keeps interest rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as widely expected.. In the accompanying statement. Fed noted that there has been a ” lack of further progress” recently on lowering inflation towards target. Meanwhile, FOMC emphasized that “The Committee does not...
US: Manufacturing Slips Back into Contraction in April, But Price Pressures Pick Up
The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped back into contractionary territory in April, dipping to 49.2, from 50.3 in March. Even so, 9 of 16 industries reported growth in April – the same as in March. Demand softness was reflected by the new orders and new export orders...
Worst of Both Worlds: Are the Risks of Stagflation Elevated? Part III
Part III: Where Is Stagflation Headed from Here? Summary In the first installment of this series, we presented a simple framework to characterize stagflation and identified 13 instances in the United States since 1950. We briefly summarized past episodes of...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0642; (P) 1.0688; (R1) 1.0713; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Recovery from 1.0601 could have completed at at 1.0752 already. Further fall would be seen for retesting 1.0601 first. Firm break there...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9128; (P) 0.9162; (R1) 0.9231; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for 0.9243 resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.8728 to 0.9151 from 0.9009 at...
US ISM manufacturing falls to 49.2, prices surges to 60.9
US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.3 to 49.2 in April, below expectation of 50.1, and back in contraction. New orders fell from 51.4 to 49.1. Production fell from 54.6 to 51.3. Employment rose from 47.4 to 48.6. Prices surged from 55.8 to 60.9, highest reading...
ADP Hints at Another Strong NFP on Friday
The monthly ADP labour market report showed that America created 192K new jobs in April, above the forecasted 179K and following +208K in March (revised from 184K). Overall, there was a slight slowdown in wage growth to 5% y/y from 5.1% a month earlier, which is still...
AUD/USD Stabilizes After Taking a Tumble, Fed Next
The Australian dollar has steadied on Wednesday after sliding 1.4% a day earlier. AUD/USD is up 0.19%, trading at 0.6489 at the time of writing in the North American session. Australian dollar slides after soft retail sales Retail sales in Australia fell 0.4% m/m in...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.64; (P) 157.25; (R1) 158.42; More… USD/JPY is extending the consolidation pattern from 160.20 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 154.95 to bring...
Dollar’s Rebound Pauses ahead of FOMC, Oil Prices Decline
Dollar’s rally slowed slightly in early US session despite robust ADP job data, as traders adopt a cautious stance ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. With a hawkish shift expected from Fed, the extent of Powell’s...
OIL (CL_F) Elliott Wave: Incomplete Sequences Forecasting The Path
Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of Oil published in members area of the website. The commodity shows bullish sequences in the cycle from the 67.75 low. Consequently we are favoring the long side and...
NZ Dollar Shrugs After Soft Jobs Report
The New Zealand dollar has steadied on Thursday, after a sharp decline of 1.5% a day earlier. NZD/USD is trading higher 0.08% on the day at 0.5890, at the time of writing. New Zealand’s employment declines New Zealand’s labor market is showing signs of cracks....
Will Post-FOMC Jobs Report Move Dollar?
US nonfarm payrolls scheduled for release on Friday 12:30 GMT Another solid report could question rate cuts if Powell provides no clear guidance EURUSD at risk of plunging towards April’s low of 1.0600 April’s nonfarm payrolls might cause volatility Friday will be a...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 196.27; (P) 196.82; (R1) 197.70; More.. GBP/JPY is extending consolidation from 200.53 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 193.51 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 200.53 will resume larger up...
A New Stage of Bitcoin’s Decline
Market Picture Bitcoin’s closing price on Tuesday became the lowest since late February, confirming the downward trend and falling under March and April support and the psychologically important round level. Bitcoin ended April down 15.5% to $59.9K, after six months...
EUR/USD Dives While USD/CHF Extends Rally
EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.0695 support. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a move toward the 0.9250 resistance. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0750 resistance and declined against the US...
Gold Seeks Safety After Tuesday’s Drop
Gold trends lower in the short-term picture, near oversold territory Stronger buying needed above 2,355 for a bullish outlook FOMC policy announcement due today at 18:00 GMT Gold bears took control on Tuesday, pressing the price below the resistance-turned-support...
UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.1, sector faces multiple challenges
UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 49.1 in April, down from March’s 50.3. This decline was also reflected in four key areas: output, new orders, employment, and stocks of purchases. Furthermore, input price inflation hit a 14-month high, exacerbating cost pressures...
USDJPY Stabilizes a Tad Below 160.00
USDJPY jumps to its highest level since April 1990 A suspected Japanese intervention does not have meaningful impact Oscillators exhibit a divergence regarding overbought conditions USDJPY has been in a steady uptrend since the beginning of the year, posting a fresh...
FX option expiries for 1 May 10am New York cut
It is Labour Day but there are still some expiries to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0650 level. While it isn't so much so a key level on the charts, it is one that could keep price action more sticky until we get to US...
Dollar Firms as Markets Brace for Hawkish Fed Shift, Swiss Franc Under Pressure
Dollar rebounded broadly overnight and stayed generally firm in Asian session. Stock investors were apparently adopting a cautious stance and lightening up positions ahead of Fed’s rate decision and subsequent press conference today. With recent data pointing to...
EUR/USD: Sideways Within a Medium-Term Downtrend
Eurozone preliminary core CPI rate for April continued to inch lower at 2.7% y/y, its slowest pace of inflationary pressure since February 2022. 2-year and 10-year Eurozone sovereign bonds/US Treasuries yield spread discounts have continued to widen which supports a...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9079; (P) 0.9116; (R1) 0.9143; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 0.9155 will resume the rally from 0.8332 and should target 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9085...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.91; (P) 156.95; (R1) 159.37; More… USD/JPY is extending consolidation from 160.20 and intraday remains neutral. Strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 154.95 to bring recovery. But break of 160.20 is not...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2504; (P) 1.2537; (R1) 1.2595; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, above 1.2568 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2580). Sustained break there will argue that fall from...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0695; (P) 1.0714; (R1) 1.0740; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.0752 will resume the rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0780). On the downside, break of 1.0673 minor support will turn intraday bias...
Canada’s Economy Continued to Grow in February, No Growth Expected in March
The Canadian economy grew for a second straight month in February, up 0.2% on a month-on-month (m/m) basis. This print comes in slightly below Statistics Canada’s advanced guidance and market expectations for a 0.4% and 0.3% m/m gain, respectively. The flash estimate...
US consumer confidence plunges to 97, lowest since Jul 2022
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence plunged from 103.1 to 97.0 in April, well below expectation of 104.0. Present Situation Index fell from 146.8 to 142.9. Expectations Index fell from 74.0 to 66.4. “Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level...
May forex seasonals: The strongest month for the Dollar Index
The month of April wraps up today and it was a volatile market, certainly not one that's typically the strongest seasonally of the year.Scorecard for April:Typically the strongest of the year for cable (down 120 pips)Strongest month for the S&P 500 (down...
Silver: A Possible Long Road Down
Silver has lost 2.6% since the start of the day on Tuesday to $26.4 per ounce. After a failed attempt to climb above $30 per ounce on 7 April, the downside momentum in Silver has been replaced by sideways consolidation without significant bounces. Tuesday’s decline...
US Money Markets Have Discounted a New Hawkish Fed Pivot
Markets What a difference some inflation prints make… Following the Fed’s pivot in November and December of last year, markets rapidly turned to expecting policy rate cuts. The language in official statements changed from assessing to whether any additional policy...
Is US 100 Setting Course for New Record Highs?
US 100 enters recovery mode, stays above uptrend line MACD and RSI suggest that momentum may turn positive A break above 18,350 will take the index into uncharted territory A break below 15,700 may turn the broader outlook bearish The US 100 cash index entered a...
Dollar Rebounds on Strong Employment Cost Data, Euro Supported by GDP and CPI Core
Dollar’s rebound is picking up momentum in early US session, bolstered by latest Employment Cost Index which rose by 1.2% in Q3, marking the fastest pace since Q3 2022. This unexpected acceleration in employment costs adds to a series of economic data that suggests...
Canada’s GDP grows 0.2% mom in Feb, vs exp. 0.3% mom
Canada’s GDP grew 0.2% mom in February, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Services-producing industries (+0.2%) led the growth for a second month in a row. Goods-producing industries aggregate was essentially unchanged. Overall, 12 of 20 sectors increased in the...
ECB’s de Cos: Rate cut appropriate in June if inflation outlook maintained
ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos highlighted that despite the positive trend in declining inflation rates, outlook is clouded by rising energy costs, persistent high inflation in the services sector, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. He expected...
Another Dip in Crypto Capitalization
Market picture The crypto market capitalisation decreased by another 1.5% to $2.27 trillion, getting closer and closer to the April lows just above $2.22 trillion. Contrary to expectations, after the halving, the pressure on the market increased, in full accordance...
EURJPY Seeks Calmness After Roller Coaster Day
EURJPY stabilizes after Japan-driven volatile session Bears wait for action below the 167.20 support area Eurozone’s flash CPI inflation due at 09:00 GMT EURJPY rose rapidly to an almost 40-year high of 171.56 on Monday thanks to a suspected intervention from Japanese...
USD/JPY Stabilizes After Roller-Coaster Monday
The Japanese yen is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.88, up 0.34%. It has been a relatively quiet day for the yen after massive movement over the past two days. On Friday dollar-yen jumped 1.7% and broke above 158, but the real...
Eurozone CPI unchanged at 2.4% in Apr, core CPI down to 2.7%
Eurozone CPI was unchanged at 2.4% yoy in April, matched expectations. CPI core (energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) slowed from 2.9% yoy to 2.7% yoy, above expectation of 2.6% yoy. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, services is expected to have...
Will AUDUSD Exit the Range Again?
AUDUSD comes under selling interest this week But stays within sideways range A break below 0.6485 may turn the outlook bearish For the picture to brighten, a move above 0.6615 may be needed AUDUSD was sold this week, after the bulls struggled to overcome the 0.6575...
Eurozone GDP rises 0.3% qoq in Q1, above exp 0.1% qoq
Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% qoq, 0.4% yoy in Q1, better than expectation of 0.1% qoq, 0.2% yoy. EU GDP grew 0.3% qoq, 0.5% yoy. Among the Member States for which data are available, Ireland (+1.1%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by...
GBPUSD Battles With 200-Day SMA
GBPUSD rebounds strongly from a 5-month bottom But meets strong resistance at 200-day SMA Momentum indicators improve but remain neutral-to-negative GBPUSD experienced a vast decline after posting a fresh 2024 high of 1.2892, generating a clear structure of lower...
FX option expiries for 30 April 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of for the day. As such, traders will be left to their own devices in working with the technicals and overall risk mood mostly. Besides that, do be wary that month-end flows could factor into play especially closer to the...
Aussie Weighed Down by Retail Sales and China, Gold Ready for Another Down Leg
Australian Dollar weakened across the board in Asian session, dragged down by unexpectedly poor retail sales data for March. The contraction in sales is a reminder to RBA about the ongoing impact of cost of living pressures exacerbated by higher interest rates and...
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6324; (P) 1.6393; (R1) 1.6436; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.6742 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.6127 support, or further to 100%...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8550; (P) 0.8567; (R1) 0.8576; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside at this point. Corrective rebound from 0.8497 should have completed at 0.8643, after rejection by trend line resistance. Deeper fall would be seen to retest...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.37; (P) 168.38; (R1) 170.30; More… EUR/JPY’s steep retreat indicates short term topping at 171.58 already. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 165.33 resistance turned support...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 195.21; (P) 196.57; (R1) 199.17; More.. GBP/JPY’s steep retreat indicates short term topping at 200.53. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 193.51 resistance turned support holds. Firm...
Gold Weakens Its Momentum – Action Forex
Gold holds near the 20-day SMA Oscillators are heading south Gold prices are moving back and forth of the 2,320 barrier and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), while remaining in a positive territory. However, the technical oscillators are weakening their...
US 500 Cash Index in the Green Ahead of Fed
US 500 index is edging higher, a tad below the 50-day SMA Bulls are feeling more confident following strong tech earnings Momentum indicators are mixed at this stage The US 500 cash index is trying to record its third consecutive green candle today as the bulls are...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.06; (P) 157.26; (R1) 159.53; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point as consolidation from 160.20 short term top is extending. Strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 154.95 to bring...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9111; (P) 0.9130; (R1) 0.9165; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as sideway consolidation continues. On the upside, firm break of 0.9151 will resume the rally from 0.8332 and should target 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside,...
USD/JPY 160 the Line in Sand for (Hhidden) Interventions?
Markets Japanese markets were closed for Showa day today. Still, despite (or maybe due to) holiday thinned market conditions, the yen moved sharply up and down this morning. At first, Friday’s post BoJ yen weakening due to persistent policy divergence between the BoJ...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2448; (P) 1.2495; (R1) 1.2540; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 1.2298 short term bottom would target 55 D EMA (now at 1.2582). Sustained break there will argue that fall from 1.2892 has completed...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0660; (P) 1.0707; (R1) 1.0739; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, above 1.0752 will resume the rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0780). On the downside, break of 1.0673 minor support will turn...
Yen Stabilizes After Sharp Rally, Japan Withholds Confirmation of Intervention
Yen is currently trading as the strongest currency for the day as the markets enter into US session. The earlier dip below 160 psychological support against Dollar spurred a wave of buying, propelling Yen sharply higher. However, subsequent trading has not shown clear...
USD/JPY: Pulls Back from New Multi-Decade Top on Suspected Intervention
USDJPY cracked psychological 160 barrier and hit new multi-decade high early Monday, with subsequent sharp pullback to 155.00 zone on suspected intervention. Fresh weakness cracked pivotal 155 support area (Friday’s low / 10DMA / Fibo 38.2% of 146.448/160.19) but so...
Japanese Yen Shows Volatility Amid Speculation of Intervention
The USD/JPY pair is hovering around 155.00 on Monday, having earlier touched a new 34-year peak at 160.00. Market rumours suggest that the Japanese authorities might have intervened in the currency market, although there has been no official confirmation. Today’s...
Crypto Market Retreats Due to Overhang of Sellers
Market picture The crypto market has lost 3.3% in the last 24 hours to $2.3 trillion. The last time this level of capitalisation was on 19th April. Most worrying is the reversal of the trend from up to down last Wednesday. If the market easily pulls back below the...
USD/JPY: Rate Falls Rapidly After Exceeding Psychological Mark of 160 Yen Per Dollar
Despite the fact that today is a holiday in Japan, the foreign exchange market is experiencing extreme volatility — wide candles are forming on the USD/JPY chart, and the rate briefly exceeded the psychological level of 160 yen per dollar, reaching a new high in 34...
ECB’s Wunsch: Successive rate cuts in Jun and Jul could trigger excessive repricing
ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch expressed today that he is “very comfortable” with rate cut in June. He also anticipates that at least two rates cuts this year, “barring any bad news”. However, Wunsch was careful to temper expectations regarding the pace of...
Eurozone economic sentiment falls to 95.6, EU down to 96.2
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 96.2 to 95.6 in April, below expectation of 96.9. Employment Expectations Indicator fell from 102.5 to 101.8. Economic Uncertainty Indicator fell from 19.3 to 18.8. Eurozone industry confidence fell from -8.9 to -10.5....
EURUSD Attempts Recovery from 5-month Low
EURUSD rebounds from a five-month bottom But oscillators suggest that the bears retain control EURUSD came under severe selling pressure in the aftermath of a hotter-than-expected inflation report on April 10, posting a fresh 2024 low of 1.0600. Although the pair has...
USD/JPY: Overextended Intraday Rally Makes It Vulnerable to Squeeze Down With Rumoured Talks of FX Intervention
USD/JPY extended its rally to hit 159.60 key long-term resistance (also the April 1990 secular swing high). Today’s Asian session’s swift upmove in USD/JPY has led to an increase in its volatility condition which increases the risk of FX intervention. Abrupt intraday...
Yen Rebounds Vigorously Post-160 Breach as Traders Take Profits
Japanese Yen mounted a strong comeback in Asian session today after initial dip through 160 psychological support against Dollar. While the moves are exaggerated by today’s thin trading volumes due to public holiday in Japan, the strong rebound is marked by widespread...
FX option expiries for 29 April 10am New York cut
There is one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0750 level. It sits near the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing lower in April, seen at 1.0743. That might play a role alongside the expiries to hold any further advance in...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Inflation Persists, US GDP Growth Slows The US economy remains the most powerful on the planet. Moreover, its share of global GDP has reached a nearly two-decade high of 26.3%. According to the IMF, from 2018, the European Union’s share decreased by 1.4%,...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF rebounded further to 0.9797 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations. But further rally is expected as long as 0.9708 minor support holds. Break of 0.9797 will target a retest on 0.9847 high. However,...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6742 resumed by breaking through 1.6368 support last week. The development revived the case that rise from 1.6127 has completed at 1.6742. Fall from there is the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Initial bias is now on the downside...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 169.38. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Next target is 169.96 high the downside, below 167.76 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But pull back should...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 197.90. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Next target is 198.89 projection level. On the downside, below 195.85 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3845 extended lower last week and further decline is in favor as long as 1.3730 minor resistance holds. Next target is 55 D EMA (now at 1.3599). On the upside, above 1.3730 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3845...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF breached 0.9151 resistance briefly but retreated back into established range. Initial bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. On the upside, firm break of 0.9151 will resume the rally from 0.8332 and should target 0.9243 key resistance...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD rebounded after edging lower to 1.2298 last week. But upside is capped by 1.2538 support turned resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.2421 will argue that rebound from 1.2298 has completed and bring retest of...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 158.43. Initial bias stay on the upside this week. Next target is 138.2% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 161.14. On the downside, below 156.81 minor support will turn intraday bias...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD recovered further to 1.0752 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.0752 will resume the rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0780). On the downside, break of 1.0677 minor support will turn intraday...
Yen’s Decline, Robust US Investor Confidence, and Aussie’s Rise
Last week’s market activity was shaped by several significant themes. Firstly, the Japanese Yen’s rapid decline caught market participants off guard. The sell-off was exacerbated by what many considered tepid verbal interventions from Japanese officials. Current...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6361 extended higher last week and further rally is expected as long as 0.6482 support holds. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6527) will argue that fall from 0.6870 has completed, and bring further rally to 0.6643 resistance next. On the...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8643 last week but reversed after rejection by medium term trendline resistance. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.8491/7 support zone. On the upside, above 0.8582 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral...
US PCE inflation rises to 2.7% yoy in Mar, core PCE steady at 2.8% yoy
US personal income rose 0.5% mom or USD 122.0B in March, matched expectations. Personal spending rose 0.8% mom or USD 160.9B, above expectation of 0.6% mom. Both headline and core PCE price index rose 0.3% mom, matched expectations. Prices for services increased 0.4%...
GDP Data to show Canadian Economy Lost Momentum Late in First Quarter
On Tuesday, we expect Canadian gross domestic product in February to show a more subdued 0.1% increase than the 0.6% jump in January and below the 0.4% advance estimate released a month ago. The surge in January output was in part tied to transitory factors that will...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: The Long and Winding Road to Easing
Summary United States: The Long and Winding Road to Easing The case for rate cuts this summer continued to weaken as this week’s economic data painted a scene of stubborn inflation against the backdrop of defiant consumer demand. We got our first look at Q1 GDP, which...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Canada – Rate Cuts on the Horizon
U.S. Highlights There was no reprieve in U.S. data this week for those concerned the economy is running too hot for the Federal Reserve to deliver imminent interest rate relief. Expectations for multiple rate cuts have been greatly pared back since the start of the...
Summary 4/29 – 5/3
Monday, Apr 29, 2024 Tuesday, Apr 30, 2024 Wednesday, May 1, 2024 Thursday, May 2, 2024 Friday, May 3, 2024 The post Summary 4/29 – 5/3 appeared first on Action Forex.
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.32; (P) 155.53; (R1) 155.87; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09. Some resistance could be seen there to bring retreat. But further rally is expected as long as...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9104; (P) 0.9137; (R1) 0.9155; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 0.9151 will resume the rally from 0.8332 and should target 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9085...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2464; (P) 1.2495; (R1) 1.2543; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.2538 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.2421 minor support will argue that rebound from...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0692; (P) 1.0716; (R1) 1.0754; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 1.0601 could extend to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0784). On the downside, break of 1.0677 minor support will turn intraday bias to the...
U.S. Consumer Spending and Income Rise in March, Inflation Holds Steady
Personal income grew 0.5% month-on-month (m/m) in March, an increase relative to February’s 0.3% gain and in line with market expectations. Accounting for inflation and taxes, real personal disposable income rose 0.2% in March, a recovery from the -0.1% decline in...
Weekly Focus – Rate Cut Expectations Pushed Back Further
It has been a volatile week for risk markets, once again mostly driven by expectations regarding the first rate cuts by the big central banks. Euro area PMIs came out much stronger than expected, and service sector output prices increased, raising a question of...
Fed Preview – Cuts Still in the Horizon
The Fed is widely expected to maintain the Fed Funds Rate unchanged next week by both markets and analyst consensus. The Fed could announce upcoming tapering of the QT pace already next week, but we would not expect it to have a significant impact on financial...
Week Ahead – Hawkish Risk as Fed and NFP on Tap, Eurozone Data Eyed Too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the euro Chinese PMIs and New Zealand employment to be watched too Will the Fed put rate cut...
Fed Faces Dilemma Amid Sticky Inflation and Slowing Economy
Investors scale back Fed rate cut bets as inflation stays hot But economic growth slows more than expected in Q1 Will the Fed continue to signal patience? The Committee decides on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT Stubborn inflation weighs on rate cut bets When they last met,...
Can Chinese PMIs Solidify the Economy’s Recovery Prospects?
Important Chinese PMI surveys on Tuesday, ahead of the Fed meeting Improvement across the board could be on the cards after positive GDP print Aussie could benefit against the US dollar Data to be released on Tuesday at 01.30 and 01.45 GMT respectively A Fed-dominated...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The yen showed some huge intraday swings today. USD/JPY rose beyond 156 and was moving quickly towards 157 next. A violent countermove then pushed it back to the 155 figure only to trade back at the highest level of the day (and 34 years) just south of 157....
False Alert with Yen Interventions?
Even though the Bank of Japan left the key rate and parameters of the QE programme unchanged, the central bank’s inaction increased the pressure on the national currency. This resulted in USDJPY reaching 156.80 and EURJPY reaching 2007–2008 levels, which started a...
Stronger Inflation Data Fails to Lift Dollar; Yen’s Decline Persists
Dollar remains stable in early US session despite release of another set of persistently high inflation figures. The strong rebound in DOW futures suggest that investors are somewhat relieved to see no disastrous surge in inflation rates. Additionally, robust spending...
Australian Dollar Extends Gains as PPI Surges
The Australian dollar has posted four straight winning sessions this week and is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6534, up 0.24%. The Aussie has powered higher this week, climbing 1.82%. Australia’s PPI blows past...
Swiss Franc Shrugs After SNB’s Jordan Comments
The Swiss franc is steady on Friday. In the European session, USD/CHF is almost unchanged at 0.9118. It has been quite a ride for the Swiss franc, which hit eight-year highs against the US dollar in the last week of 2023. The US dollar has roared back in 2024, surging...
Gold Price Recovers Amid Uncertain US Economic Outlook
The price of a troy ounce of gold climbed to 2330.00 USD on Friday. This surge was driven by investors’ ongoing evaluation of the potential direction of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy following mixed macroeconomic data. The US GDP for Q1 did not meet...
USD/JPY: Surges Above 156.00 as BoJ Holds Rates
USDJPY surged to new 34-year high on Friday after the Bank of Japan kept its ultra-low interest rates unchanged and lacked to provide clearer signals about the timing of next rate hike, which further deflated yen. Fresh bullish acceleration on Friday surged through...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.67; (P) 194.31; (R1) 195.39; More.. GBP/JPY’s up trend continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside for 195.86 long term resistance. Firm break there will target 198.89 projection level. On the downside, below 194.33 minor support will...
SNB’s Jordan: New shocks can occur any time
Speaking at SNB’s annual shareholder meeting, President Thomas Jordan highlighted the achievement in lowering inflation to below 2%, a milestone that enabled the bank to implement a rate cut last month. Despite this progress, Jordan emphasized the continuing high...
USD/JPY Volatile After Inflation, BoJ Meeting
The Japanese yen is swinging sharply on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.46, up 0.52%. It has been a busy Friday in Japan. Japanese inflation data, which was released just before the end of the Bank of Japan meeting, was much lower than...
GBP/USD and USD/CAD Daily Chart Outlook
GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 1.2300. USD/CAD is consolidating and might aim for a move above the 1.3760 resistance zone. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today The British Pound started a recovery wave above the 1.2400 resistance....
GBPJPY Close to a New 9-Year High
GBPJPY is in the green again today, a tad below its 9-year high The BoJ meeting failed to stop the yen’s underperformance; intervention threat lingers Momentum indicators are clearly on the GBPJPY bulls’ side GBPJPY is trading higher again today, recording its fourth...
FX option expiries for 26 April 10am New York cut
There is one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0750 level. It isn't one with major technical significance but it keeps near the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing lower this month at 1.0743. As such, that could play a role in...
Yen’s Free Fall Resumes Post-BoJ; Dollar Eyes PCE Inflation Data for Rescue
Japanese Yen resumes its free fall today, after a brief pause, and reaches new 34-year low against Dollar. Yen’s weakness is also broad-based and evident against other major currencies, with EUR/JPY marching towards its 2008 high and GBP/JPY heading to its 2015 peak....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2368; (P) 1.2414; (R1) 1.2495; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.2538 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.2421 minor support will argue that rebound from 1.2298 has...
US Q1 GDP Comes in Lower Than Expected, But Details Show a Resilient Economy
Real GDP expanded by 1.6% quarter-over-quarter (q/q, annualized) in the first quarter of 2024 – below the consensus forecast of 2.5%. Consumer spending expanded by 2.5% – a modest deceleration from last quarter’s 3.3% gain. Service spending (+4.0%) accounted for...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.91; (P) 155.15; (R1) 155.58; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Sustained trading above 155.20 fibonacci level will pave the way 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09. Considering bearish...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9121; (P) 0.9138; (R1) 0.9167; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the upside with breach of 0.9151 resistance. Current rally from 0.8332 should target 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, though, below 0.9085 minor support will...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
.Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0680; (P) 1.0697; (R1) 1.0716; More… EUR/USD retreated after brief breach of 1.0723 support turned resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. Break of 1.0677 support will indicate rejection by 1.0723, and turn bias back to the downside....
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Asian markets mostly started the day in risk-off modus after a disappointing outlook from tech bellwether Meta at its earnings report yesterday after the close of US markets. This also spilled over to European equities this morning. The risk-off again didn’t...
US Economy: Slower Growth With Stronger Inflation
The dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast. Disappointment...
Euro Turns to GDP and Inflation Data for a Lifeline
Euro loses ground as European Central Bank signals rate cuts But only against US dollar – holds strong against pound and yen Eurozone GDP and inflation stats on Tuesday will decide what’s next Imminent rate cuts bruise euro It’s been a difficult year for the euro,...
Worst of Both Worlds: Are the Risks of Stagflation Elevated? Part II
Part II: A Brief Review of Past Episodes of Stagflation Summary In the first installment of this series, we presented a simple framework to characterize stagflation and identified 13 instances in the United States since 1950. Episodes vary in severity, but each posed...
Pound Edges Higher After Soft US GDP
The British is in positive territory on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2492, up 0.23%. US GDP slows to 1.6% Is the US economy finally slowing down? Recent key indicators, from nonfarm payrolls to consumer inflation have been stronger...
BTCUSD Retreats After Unsuccessful Test of 50-SMA
BTCUSD regains ground in the halving aftermath But the price gets rejected at the 50-day SMA Momentum indicators are tilted to the downside BTCUSD (Bitcoin) had been in a slow but steady recovery after the completion of the halving event on April 19, erasing a...
Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing: Soft GDP Hides Surging Spending
Summary Real GDP grew at only a 1.6% annualized pace in Q1, held back by trade and inventories. Consumer spending in the service sector is not slowing, in fact, it is ramping up at a rate seldom seen in the past 20 years. That is problematic as core PCE prices are...
Disappointing GDP Growth and Rising Inflation Spark Risk Sentiment U-Turn
Risk sentiment took a sharp downturn following the release of US Q1 GDP data, which revealed weaker-than-expected economic growth alongside an acceleration in both headline and core PCE price indexes. This combination suggests that the US economy may be caught in a...
US GDP expands 1.6% annualized in Q1, below expectations
US real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.6% in Q1, missing expectation of 2.1%, sharply lower than Q4’s 3.4%. Compared to the fourth quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports, and...
Nasdaq 100 Might Retreat to 15800
Change in the Nasdaq100. The selling on the Nasdaq100 from 12 to 19 April, which sent the index down more than 7%, has stimulated buying interest this week. They see falling prices as an opportunity to buy stocks at a reduced cost. RSI dynamics. The rebound of the...
USD/JPY: Eventual Break of 155.00 Barrier Unmasks 160.00 Target
USDJPY hits new multi-decade highs, following eventual break of key 155.00 zone, where the action was capped in anticipation of intervention from Japanese authorities at these levels. Fading intervention fears unleashed bulls which now focus targets at 156.36 and...
Crypto: Bears Plotting New Attack
Market picture Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has lost more than 3.5%, falling to a capitalisation of $2.37 trillion. Bitcoin shows a decline with a similar amplitude; Ethereum lost less than 3%, while BNB added 0.1%, and Solana fell by 6.5%. On...
Yen in Search of New Lows, Commodity Currencies at a Low Start
In recent trading sessions, the dollar has been trading quite differently to leading currencies. Thus, the yen is reaching historical lows, European currencies have managed to correct, and the Australian and Canadian dollars are testing strategic supports. USD/JPY The...
AUD/USD: Extended Recovery Attacks Key Resistance Zone Again
Strong rally extends into fourth consecutive day and retests pivotal barriers at 0.6526/29 (converged 200/55DMA’s) which capped attack previous day. Fresh strength offsets for now bearish signal on formation of daily inverted hammer candlestick on Wednesday, left...
Japanese Yen Hits All-Time Low as BoJ Meeting Commences
The USD/JPY pair reached an all-time high on Thursday, touching the 155.50 level. This development comes as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) starts its two-day monetary policy meeting with widespread expectations that the interest rate will remain unchanged at zero. Investors...
USDJPY Advances to Fresh 34-year High
USDJPY trades at its highest level since April 1990 Momentum indicators flag extremely overbought conditions For now, Japanese authorities seem reluctant to intervene USDJPY has been in a steady uptrend after finding its feet near the 200-day simple moving average...
US 100 Index Weakness Lingers
US 100 cash index is in the red, a tad below the 100-day SMA Market sentiment remains bearish ahead of key US data Momentum indicators mostly bearish; all eyes on the stochastic The US 100 cash index is in the red again today, trading a tad below the 100-day simple...
FX option expiries for 25 April 10am New York cut
There is one to take note of for the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for USD/JPY at the 155.85 level. However, the pair is pretty much playing a different game compared to the rest of the major currencies bloc right now. So, I wouldn't attribute the expiries...
Yen Weakens Further as Market Eyes Possible 160 Mark, Dollar Awaits Key GDP Data
Japanese Yen’s accelerated decline captured significant attention in Asian session, while the broader currency markets remained generally stable. Market participants interpret the apparent lack of urgency from Japanese officials to address Yen’s fall as a tacit...
German Ifo business climate rises to 89.4, economy stabilizing thanks to service providers
German Ifo Business Climate rose from 87.8 to 89.4 in April, above expectation of 88.5. Current Assessment Index rose from 88.1 to 88.9, above expectation of 88.7. Expectations Index also improved from 87.5 to 89.9, above expectation of 88.9. By sector, manufacturing...
Dollar Pullback from Overbought Territory Boosts Appeal
The US dollar’s gains stalled last week, and on Tuesday, it lost a third of a cent against a basket of major currencies to 105.4 from a peak of 106.3 the week before. Yesterday’s pullback more closely resembles the start of broader profit-taking than a reversal of the...
Euro Gains Against Dollar Amid Mixed Economic Signals
The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.0707 on Wednesday, driven by increased local risk appetite and the belief that the currency was significantly oversold against the US dollar. This resurgence indicates a temporary rebalancing in the currency market. In the US, newly...
Canada’s retail sales down -0.1% mom in Feb
Canada’s retail sales fell -0.1% mom to CAD 66.7B in February, worse than expectation of 0.1% mom rise. Sales were down in five of nine subsectors and were led by decreases at gasoline stations and fuel vendors (-2.2% mom). Core retail sales, which exclude gasoline...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0656; (P) 1.0684; (R1) 1.0729; More… EUR/USD is still bounded in range trading above 1.0601 and intraday bias remains neutral. Strong resistance should be seen from 1.0723 to complete the corrective rise from 1.0601. Break of 1.0601 will resume...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.63; (P) 154.76; (R1) 154.95; More… Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and intraday bias remains mildly on the upside for further rally. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9093; (P) 0.9113; (R1) 0.9138; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Break of 0.9151 will resume the larger rise from 0.8332 to 0.9243 resistance....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2368; (P) 1.2414; (R1) 1.2495; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. While recovery from 1.2298 might extend higher, upside should be limited by 1.2538 support turned resistance. On the downside, below 1.2298 will...
AUD/USD Extends Gains as Inflation Higher Than Expected
The Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6504, up 0.27%. The Australian dollar rose as high as 0.6529 (0.64%) after the Australian inflation release but has pared about half of those gains. Australia’s...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Core bonds lost ground with German Bunds underperforming US Treasuries today. It would be unfair to link the former exclusively to the better-than-expected German Ifo indicator but it did support yields moving higher. The headline series improved from 87.9 to...
Canada: Retail Sales Registered Loss in February, Auto Sales Partially Recover
Retail sales declined by 0.1% month-on-month (m/m) in February, coming in weaker than Statistics Canada’s advance estimate for a 0.1% gain. January’s print was unchanged at -0.3% m/m. Adjusted for inflation, the volume of retail sales was down 0.3% in January after...
Dollar Gains Following Durable Goods Data, Canadian Drops on Retail Sales Miss
Dollar is making a modest recovery in early US session, supported by slightly better-than-expected durable goods orders and recovery in benchmark Treasury yields. However, the overarching direction of the greenback for the near term remains uncertain, largely...
US durable goods orders rises 2.6% mom in Mar, ex-transport orders up 0.2% mom
US durable goods orders rose 2.6% mom to USD 283.4B in March, above expectation of 2.5% mom. Ex-transport orders rose 0.2% mom to USD 187.5B, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 2.3% mom to USD 268.1B, above expectation of 2.0% mom. Transportation...
Euro Edges Lower Despite Stronger German Business Confidence
The euro is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0685, down 0.16%. German shows signs of optimism Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index rose to 89.4 in April, up from a revised 87.9 in March and above the market estimate of...
Gold Technical: Is Bull Run Over After Worst Daily Decline in 2 Years?
The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have shaped the mean reversion decline after a test on the US$2,420 intermediate resistance. It tumbled by -2.7% on Monday, 22 April, its worst daily performance since 13 June 2022 (almost two years), and continued to extend its...
Will BoJ Disappoint Once Again?
BoJ manages to upset the market even with historic hike Yen tumbles to 34-year low even as market prices in summer hike Will another disappointment trigger yen intervention? The Bank meets on Friday at 03:00 GMT To stand pat after historic hike The Bank of Japan (BoJ)...
Gold Price Corrects Gains While Oil Price Regains Strength
Gold price rallied above $2,400 before correcting lower. Crude oil price is rising and it could climb further higher toward the $85.50 resistance. Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today Gold price rallied significantly above $2,400 and recently...
AUD/USD Rises Sharply on Inflation News
The Consumer Price Index for Australia was released this morning. According to ForexFactory: → CPI in quarterly terms: actual = 1.0%, expected = 0.8%, previous value = 0.6%; → CPI in annual terms: actual = 3.5%, expected = 3.4%, previous value = 3.4%. Rising...
Altcoins Upbeat, Bitcoin Hesitant to Breakout
Market picture The crypto market added 0.5% in 24 hours to $2.46 trillion as a rebound in risk appetite in stocks helped altcoins attract buying interest. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index added 1 point to 72 (Greed). Bitcoin is avoiding sharp swings and is trading at...
WTI Futures Tick Up After Bouncing Off 50-SMA
WTI futures develop within a bullish channel since December Price retreats from a 6-month high but finds support at 50-day SMA Oscillators suggest intensifying positive momentum WTI oil futures (June delivery) have been in a constant uptrend since bottoming out at...
FX option expiries for 24 April 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 mark. The pair is being resisted around the 38.2 Fib retracement level of its recent swing lower this month, seen at 1.0709. So, the expiries here could help to keep price...
GBPUSD Bounces Off 1.2300 But Remains at Risk
GBPUSD posts new 5-month low Price holds in bearish tendency MACD and stochastics suggest upside move GBPUSD is recovering from the five-month low of 1.2300 that was posted on Monday and is heading towards the restrictive region of 1.2495-1.2520. The pair has started...
Aussie Propelled by CPI, Has Stock Market Correction Ended?
Australian Dollar is having a robust, broad-based rally today, boosted by unexpectedly strong CPI data. This inflation report is particularly notable given the unexpected reacceleration in monthly CPI in March, which contributed to the quarterly figure not slowing as...
Bitcoin Awaits Signal from Equity Indices
Market picture The capitalisation of the crypto market over the past 24 hours has added only 0.15% to $2.44 trillion. Crypto sentiment indices remain in the ‘greed’ territory, scoring 71 points, compared to 73 points the day before. Bitcoin added about a quarter of a...
BTC/USD – Slight Bullish Bias Above Daily Cloud, But Stronger Direction Signals Still Needed
Bitcoin is consolidating in early Tuesday, after advancing 2.8% on Monday and remains constructive as the latest jump has generated positive signal on a marginal close above important barriers at $66144 (50% retracement of $72750/$59538) and $66330 (top of ascending...
FTSE100 Hits New Record High
FTSE 100 index hit new marginally higher record high on Tuesday, as strong bullish acceleration extends into third straight day. Strong gains in UK defense stocks, food producers and retailers, along with weaker pound and rising commodity prices contributed to strong...
UK 100 Index Hits New All-Time Highs But Rally May Be Cooling
UK 100 index reaches 8,000 milestone But further gains may have to wait as uptrend starts to lose steam The UK 100 stock index (cash) closed at a new all-time high of 8,046.44 on Monday and climbed to an intra-day record of 8,077.25 earlier today. But whilst another...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2303; (P) 1.2347; (R1) 1.2395; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2538 support turned resistance. On the downside,...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.57; (P) 154.71; (R1) 154.98; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside as up trend is extending. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9103; (P) 0.9113; (R1) 0.9131; More…. USD/CHF is still bounded in consolidation from 0.9151 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Break of 0.9151 will resume the larger rise from 0.8332 to...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0628; (P) 1.0650; (R1) 1.0675; More… Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. Break of 1.0601 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to 100%...
GBP/USD: Cable Bounces After Solid Data/Hawkish BoE
Cable bounces from new multi-month low on Tuesday, boosted by better than expected UK services PMI data and hawkish stance from BoE policymakers, who signaled that rate cut might be delayed, as the central bank sees too early cut more harmful than to start easing...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets EMU PMI’s confirmed the economy is gradually leaving contraction/stagnation territory that reigned in in the second half of last year and during the first months of 2024. The composite output index rose from 50.3 in March to 51.4 in April, the second...
EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.55; (P) 164.82; (R1) 165.25; More… EUR/JPY’s breach of 165.33 resistance argues that larger up trend is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rally would be seen to 169.96 key resistance next. Nevertheless, break of 164.39 minor...
US PMI composite falls to 50.9, economic upturn loses momentum
US PMI Manufacturing fell from 51.9 to 49.9 in April. PMI Services fell from 51.7 to 50.9. PMI Composite fell from 52.1 to 50.9. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The US economic upturn lost momentum at the start...
Sterling and Euro Rebound on PMIs, But No Turn Around Yet
Sterling and Euro rebound broadly today, bolstered by encouraging PMI data that suggests continued recovery momentum in both UK and Eurozone. For the Pound, the latest PMI readings indicate that UK’s recovery from last year’s recession is gathering pace. Meanwhile,...
Australian Dollar Rises on Strong Economic Indicators
The AUD/USD pair is experiencing upward momentum for the second consecutive day, reaching a one-week high near 0.6453 on Tuesday. This positive movement comes after a period of rapid decline and is supported by encouraging economic data from Australia. The latest...
BoE’s Pill: Rate cut somewhat closer but still some way off
BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill indicated in a speech today that while a rate cut is “somewhat closer” now, it remains “some way off” in his baseline scenario. Pill emphasized that the MPC’s evaluation of the inflation outlook is concentrated on the “persistent...
Strong Profit-Taking in Gold or Beginning of Reversal?
Gold is under pressure this week, having pulled back to the $2300 per troy ounce level. The decline since Friday’s close is over 3.7%. The formal trigger is a more moderate escalation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict than expected at the beginning of the month....
BoE’s Haskel: Inflation outlook hinges on quick reduction of job vacancies to unemployment ratio
During a seminar today, BoE MPC member Jonathan Haskel emphasized the critical role of the labor market in shaping the UK’s inflation outlook. Haskel pointed out that the labor market tightness, specifically the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, is a key factor...
ECB’s de Guindos: June cut a failt accompli, uncertain afterwards
In an interview with Le Monde, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos indicated barring any surprises, a June rate cut is a “fait accompli.” “If things move in the same direction as they have in recent weeks, we will loosen our restrictive monetary policy stance in June,”...
France PMI composite rises to 49.9, back on track driven by services
France PMI Manufacturing fell from 46.2 to 44.9 in April, below expectation of 46.9. But PMI Services rose from 48.3 to 50.5, above expectation of 49.0, an 11-month high. PMI Composite rose from 48.3 to 49.9, also an 11-month high. Norman Liebke, an economist at...
Germany PMI composite soars to 53.3, indicative of 0.2% GDP expansion in Q2
Germany’s PMI Manufacturing ticked up from 41.9 to 42.2 in April, below expectation of 42.9. PMI Services jumped from 50.1 to 53.3, well above expectation of 50.5, a 10-month high. PMI Composite rose from 47.7 to 50.5, also a 10-month high. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief...
UK PMI composite rises to 54, sustainable path to target inflation not achieved yet
UK PMI Manufacturing fell from 50.3 to 48.7 in April, below expectation of 50.2. PMI Services rose from 53.1 to 54.9, above expectation of 50.2, and an 11-month high. PMI Composite rose from 52.8 to 54.0, also an 11-month high. Chris Williamson, Chief Business...
Eurozone PMI composite rises to 51.4, recovery to sustain
Eurozone’s PMI Manufacturing fell from 46.1 to 45.6 in April, below expectation of 46.5. PMI Services rose from 51.5 to 52.9, above expectation of 51.8, an 11-month high. PMI Composite rose from 50.3 to 51.4, also an 11-month high. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist...
FX option expiries for 23 April 10am New York cut
Some biggies here (bolded)EUR/USD: 1.0650 (EUR1.23b), 1.0600 (EUR979m)USD/JPY: 153.00 (US$1.34b), 150.00 (US$935m), 155.00 (US$770m) AUD/USD: 0.6420 (AUD1.57b), 0.6630 (AUD1.39b) USD/CAD: 1.3500 (US$505m), 1.3755 (US$330m) NZD/USD: 0.5900 (NZD341m), 0.6100...
Aussie Gains on Solid PMIs and RBA Hike Possibility
Australian Dollar trades broadly higher today, lifted partly by resurgence in risk sentiment, as well as robust PMI data reflecting the cyclical recovery in Australian economy. Improvement in the economic outlook reduces the immediate need of a rate cut by RBA. Judo...
EURJPY Rallies Ahead of Key Market Events
EURJPY is preparing to test the recent 165.34 high The growing intervention threat is limiting the aggressive bullish appetite Momentum indicators maintain some degree of bullish tendency EURJPY is edging higher today with the bulls apparently preparing to challenge...
Bitcoin Price Bullish after Halving-2024
On April 19, 2024, a halving occurred in the Bitcoin network, resulting in the reward for the mined block amounting to 3.125 BTC. Historically, after the halving (which is associated with a reduction in supply), the price of Bitcoin heads to all-time highs. But, as...
USD/JPY in Late Stages of an Impulse Ahead of BoJ This Week
With 10 year US yields experiencing only a three-wave drop from a new high last week down to 4.5%, we should anticipate more gains here. This is likely to be positive for the Dollar, especially against the Jpy. Looking at the USDJPY hourly chart, we see a bullish...
EUR/GBP: Rallies for the second day as dovish comments from BoE officials deflate Pound
EURGBP extends strong rally into second straight day and hit the highest in 4 ½ months on Monday, as the pound was hit by dovish comments from BoE officials, who shifted their initial view and expect inflation to ease further and remain around the central bank’s 2%...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2336; (P) 1.2402; (R1) 1.2437; More… GBP/USD’s decline extends further to as low as 1.2301 so far today. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 161.8% projection of 1.2892 to 1.2538 from 1.2708 at 1.2207 next. On the upside, above 1.2391 minor...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.93; (P) 154.30; (R1) 155.02; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 154.77 will resume larger up trend. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9032; (P) 0.9084; (R1) 0.9156; More…. USD/CHF is extending the consolidation pattern from 0.9151 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Break of 0.9151 will resume the larger rise from 0.8332 to...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Eurostat today published deficit and debt data for the years 2020-2023 in E(M)U). The euro area government deficit declined marginally from 3.7% of GDP in 2022 to 3.6% in 2023. The government debt to GDP ratio decreased over the same period from 90.8% to...
XAU/USD: Gold Falls 2% on Fading Safe Haven Demand
Gold price fell around 2% on Monday as safe haven demand faded on calmer tones from the Middle East, which ease fears for conflict escalation. Traders partially collected profits after gold repeatedly failed to sustain gains above psychological $2400 level and...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0618; (P) 1.0648; (R1) 1.0686; More… EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.0601 and intraday bias stays neutral. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. Break of 1.0601 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to...
Sterling Tumbles Broadly Amid Speculation of BoE Dovish Turn
British Pound faced broad selloff today, continuing its decline in response to comments made last Friday by BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden. Ramsden expressed he is now much less worried about inflation, and expects upcoming data to show significant slowdown in...
SPX 500: How Low Can the Correction Go?
The S&P 500 has recorded three consecutive weekly losses since its recent all-time high level of 5,265 printed on 28 March 2024. Last week’s decline of -3.05% was its worst weekly performance since early March 2023. A clear break below its upward-sloping 50-day...
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Buying the Dips After Elliott Wave Double Three
Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a look at the Elliott Wave charts charts of Bitcoin BTCUSD published in members area of the website. Our members are aware of the numerous positive trading setups we’ve had in the crypto market...
WTI Oil: Bears Regain Control as Fears of Conflict Escalation Fade
WTI oil price fell to the lowest in almost four weeks in early Monday, following a short-lived spike higher on Friday, sparked by Israel’s attack on Iran. The sentiment changed quickly to negative on fading signals of escalation of the conflict and traders shift focus...
April Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period: Waiting for Godot?
Summary We share the market’s overwhelming expectation that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will leave the fed funds target rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% at the conclusion of its April 30-May 1 meeting. Stubborn inflation and resilient economic activity...
Brent Crude Dips to Four-Week Low Amid Easing Geopolitical Tensions
Brent crude oil prices fell to a four-week low of 86.50 USD on Monday, influenced by several contributing factors. The primary cause of the decline was a reduction in geopolitical tensions as Iran’s rhetoric toward Israel showed signs of de-escalation. This change is...
Bitcoin recovers, altcoins humbly follow
Market picture The crypto market is moving upwards, encouraged by Bitcoin’s positive momentum. Total cryptocurrency capitalisation reached $2.44 trillion, up 1.6% in 24 hours and 0.8% in seven days. Bitcoin added 1.9% in 24 hours to $66.4K, gradually adding since last...
USD/JPY: Keeps Firm Tone and Continues to Trade Near Pivotal 155.00 Barrier
USDJPY keeps firm tone and continues to trade near pivotal 155 barrier, where strong offers cap the action on expectations that Japan’s authorities may intervene at this zone. Technical picture on daily and weekly chart remains increasingly bullish, with strong...
Aussie Slips to 2024 Lows on Geopolitics
It was another rough week for the Aussie, pressured by strong US data, more hawkish Fedspeak and escalating Mideast geopolitical risks. US data continued to impress with March retail sales (ex-autos and gas) rising 1.0%, materially stronger than expectations for a...
EURUSD Consolidates after Decline Pauses
EURUSD drops to a fresh 5-month low before paring some losses Oscillators suggest that risks remain tilted to the downside EURUSD came under severe selling pressure in the aftermath of a hotter-than-expected inflation report on April 10, violating its 2024 low of...
Commodity Currencies Tick Up after Calm Weekend; US GDP and PCE to move markets
Commodity currencies rises broadly in Asian session today, buoyed by slight improvement in risk sentiment after a relatively quiet weekend in the Middle East. This contrasted with the performance of typically safe-haven assets such as Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and...
FX option expiries for 22 April 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for USD/JPY at the 155.00 mark. Similar to the end of last week, this is one to watch as the pair stays underpinned by higher yields and the easing of geopolitical stress on broader markets....
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: A Pause After the Rally Last week, 60% of analysts adopted a neutral stance in their previous forecast and were proven absolutely correct. EUR/USD had a calm week, even boring at times, moving along the 1.0650 mark within the narrow corridor of 1.0600-1.0690....
Market Turbulence Amid Middle East Tensions Highlights Fragile Investor Sentiment
It was a dramatic week in the global financial markets with rapid shifts in investor sentiment triggered by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While calm was eventually restored somewhat, the volatility served as a clear indicator of the underlying...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP rose strongly late last week and broke through 0.8601 resistance. The development argues that fall from 0.8764 has probably completed. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for medium term trend line resistance (now at 0.8650). On the downside, below...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
Range trading continued in EUR/JPY last week and overall outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week as consolidation pattern from 165.33 could still extend. . On the upside, firm break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend towards 169.96 key...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD fell to as low as 0.6361 last week as down trend resumed, but recovered since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations first. Upside should be limited by 0.6480 support turned resistance to bring another decline. Break of 0.6361 will...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9151 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations. But further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Break of 0.9151 will resume the larger rise from 0.8332 to 0.9243...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s decline from 1.2892 continued lower last week despite interim recovery. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.2892 to 1.2538 from 1.2708 at 1.2354. Firm break there will target 161.8% projection at 1.2207 next. On the upside,...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY rose further to 154.77 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Break of 154.77 will resume larger up trend. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD edged lower to 1.0601 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. Break of 1.0601 will resume the fall from 1.1138t o 100% projection of...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
Range trading continued in GBP/JPY last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week and consolidations from 193.51 could extend. On the upside, firm break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. Nevertheless,...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3845 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and more consolidations could be seen. Downside should be contained by 1.3660 support to bring another rally. On the upside, firm break of 1.3845 will resume the...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Another Week, Another Strong Showing from the U.S. Consumer
Summary United States: Another Week, Another Strong Showing from the U.S. Consumer Robust retail sales data were the main story on the U.S. economic data front this week. Elsewhere, data for industrial production and jobless claims offered additional evidence that the...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Dialing Back Expectations
U.S. Highlights U.S. headline retail sales beat expectations in March, advancing for a second consecutive month. The strong showing bolstered the case for a delayed start to the Fed’s interest rate cutting cycle. Comments from senior Federal Reserve officials has the...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s correction from 0.9847 extended to as low as 0.9563 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.9721 resistance will argue that the correction has completed already, and turn intraday bias back...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s strong rebound from 1.6368 extended higher last week and the development argues that fall from 1.6742 has completed with three waves down to 1.6368. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 1.6742 next. On the downside, however, break of...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0626; (P) 1.0658; (R1) 1.0675; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0601...
USD/JPY Jumpy as Japan’s Core CPI Eases
The Japanese yen showed some promise earlier, gaining as much as 0.48% against the US dollar as it rose to 153.59. However, it has pared those gains and is trading in Europe at 154.58, down 0.04%. Japan’s core CPI falls to 2.6% Japan’s nationwide CPI, which excludes...
Euro Edges Higher, ECB Eyes June Cut
Euro recovers after dip The euro fell as much as 0.30% earlier but has recovered and edged higher. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0666, up 0.21%. The euro remains under pressure from the strong US dollar. Last week, EUR/USD fell 1.8% and...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets The impact of this morning’s “limited” Israeli retaliatory attacks against Iran gradually waned throughout today’s trading session. Initial flows all changed course. Some examples: US yields are currently up to 3 bps lower compared to over 10 bps during...
Weekly Focus – Middle East Situation Remains Tense
Market sentiment has remained volatile throughout the week. Iran’s strikes to Israel last weekend sparked uncertainty, which eased gradually through the week, only to be re-ignited by Israel’s retaliation last night. The jury is still out on whether this leads to a...
Week Ahead – US GDP and BoJ Decision on Top of Next Week’s Agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the dollar Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap Earnings season heats up as tech giants report Will US data throw more Fed rate cuts off the table? The...
Supercharged US Dollar Turns to GDP Growth Data
Dollar goes on a rampage as traders unwind Fed rate cut bets Risk aversion in stock markets amid Iran tensions helps too Upcoming US releases will decide whether rally can go further Dollar shines bright It’s been a phenomenal year for the US dollar so far. The...
Eurozone PMIs Eyed as Euro’s Focus Turns to Rate Cuts Beyond June
Eurozone appears to be on the mend but ECB still on track to cut in June For the euro, rate outlook beyond June increasingly more important Flash PMI readings for April are due on Tuesday, 08:00 GMT Will PMIs confirm tepid recovery signs? The euro area economy...
U.S. Economy’s Outperformance Carried on into the Start of the Year
The first estimate of U.S. Q1 gross domestic product next Thursday is expected to show another robust increase—extending a long stretch of outperformance in the U.S. economy versus advanced economy peers. We expect U.S. output to have grown by an annualized 2.3% from...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2418; (P) 1.2452; (R1) 1.2469; More… GBP/USD recovered after brief dip to 1.2388 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited by 1.2538 support turned resistance. Below 1.2388 will...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9095; (P) 0.9110; (R1) 0.9140; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment and consolidation from 0.9151 could extend. But further rally is expected with 0.8996 support intact. Break of 0.9151 will resume larger rally from...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.18; (P) 154.43; (R1) 154.90; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 154.77 will resume larger up trend. But considering divergence condition in 4H MACD upside should be limited by 155.20 fibonacci...
Market Calm Restored After Middle East Tensions Subside
Financial markets have steadied following a brief period of heightened volatility triggered by fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East. Initial concerns about a full-scale confrontation were alleviated. Both Israel and Iran played down the significance of...
USDCAD Puts Rally on Hold Near 1.3800 Caution Zone
USDCAD pauses aggressive bull run near five-month high Faces resistance around 1.3800, but remains supported above 1.3690 USDCAD attempted to re-enter the 1.3800 territory earlier today after its pullback from a five-month high of 1.3844 on Wednesday. But upside...
Halving Helped Bitcoin Digest Sell-off
Market picture The crypto market was relatively quick to digest the sell-off that gripped markets following Israel’s attack on Iran. The capitalisation rose 4.7% in 24 hours to $2.33 trillion, but this is down from $2.62 trillion seven days earlier. Halving and strong...
Gold Hits Record High Amid Growing Geopolitical Tensions
Gold prices have soared past 2400.00 USD, reaching a new record high on Friday. This marks the fifth consecutive week of gains for the precious metal, fuelled by increasing market demand for “safe-haven” assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions and uncertain...
GBP/USD Edges Higher After Flat Retail Sales
The British pound dipped 0.30% earlier today but has managed to recover the losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2451, up 0.12%. Retail sales misses estimate The UK release retail sales were flat in March, after a revised 0.1% gain in February and...
XAU/USD: Gold Spikes Above $2,400 Again as Deteriorating Geopolitical Situation Boosts Demand
Gold probed above $2400 level for the second time, inflated by increased safe-haven demand following Israel’s attack on Iran early Friday. Although the spike above $2400 (the metal’s price reached $2417) was so far short-lived, near-term focus remains at the upside,...
GBPJPY Range Trading Continues – Action Forex
GBPJPY is in the red today, not far from its recent high It continues to hover inside a rectangle structure Momentum indicators are in waiting mode for the next key events GBPJPY is trading lower today as the market is digesting the latest developments in the Middle...
Escalation Between Iran and Israel: How the Price of Brent Oil Reacts
On the night of Thursday into Friday, reports emerged that Israel had attacked Iran following Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend. Let’s remember that we wrote on Monday that after a 300 drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend, the price of Brent oil...
Forecast with Elliott Wave Technique Calling EURUSD to Extend Lower
Short term Elliott Wave view in EURUSD suggests that cycle from 12.28.2023 high is in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 12.28.2023 high, wave A ended at 1.0694 and rally in wave B ended at 1.098. Wave C lower is in progress as a 5 waves impulse...
FX option expiries for 19 April 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0640-45 with about €1.9 billion in expiries lined up. It's not a technically significant region but the expiries could look to hold off any upside price action before...
Middle East Conflict Shakes Markets, But Risks Seem Contained for Now
Significant volatility was seen in Asian session, following the news of Israel’s missile strike in retaliation against Iran. This geopolitical development initially led to steep decline in Asian stocks and concurrent surge in oil prices and safe-haven assets like...
Australian Dollar Shrugs Off Soft Job Numbers
The Australian dollar is steady on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6442, up 0.12%. Australia’s employment declines Australia’s job growth hit the breaks in March and fell by 6,600. This missed the market estimate of a gain of 7,700 and...
British Pound Shows Signs of Recovery Amid Favourable Inflation Data
The British pound sterling is showing signs of recovery, bouncing back from a five-month low, with GBP/USD stabilising around the 1.2470 mark on Thursday. This rebound is attributed to the release of UK inflation data, suggesting a possible monetary policy easing by...
EUR/USD: Holds Grip But Recovery Still Requires Confirmation
The Euro remains constructive and ticks higher in early Thursday after Wednesday’s 0.5% bounce from new multi-month low, but initial reversal signal still needs more evidence to be validated, as daily studies are predominantly bearish. Another strong bullish daily...
EUR/GBP: Looks for Fresh Direction Signal
EURGBP dips in early Thursday’s trading, after a double upside failure at falling 100DMA (0.8572), the lower boundary of strong resistances at 0.8580 zone (including Fibo 38.2% of 0.8714/0.8498 downtrend and a multiple spike highs). Sterling regained ground after...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.11; (P) 154.43; (R1) 154.71; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 155.20 fibonacci projection level. On the...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9088; (P) 0.9115; (R1) 0.9135; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as consolidation from 0.9151 is extending. While deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9151 will target...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2421; (P) 1.2451; (R1) 1.2486; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2404 is extending. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2538 support turned resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, firm break of...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0626; (P) 1.0653; (R1) 1.0700; More… EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.0601 and intraday bias stays neutral. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. On the downside, break...
US, Japan Express Concern Over Japanese Yen
The Japanese yen is almost unchanged on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 154.44, up 0.03%. It’s a light data calendar today. US unemployment claims were unchanged at 212,000 and the Philly Fed Manufacturing index surged to 15.5 in April,...
Fed’s Williams: No urgency to cut interest rates
At the Semafor World Economy Summit today, New York Fed President John Williams there is no urgency in current monetary policy stance. “We’ve got interest rates in a place that is moving us gradually to our goals. So I definitely don’t feel urgency to cut interest...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets German Bund yields in fixed income markets gapped lower at the open this morning, catching up with US Treasuries late yesterday and in Asian dealings this morning. The drop was followed by a drift higher only to reverse course again after some comments from...
Currency Markets in Consolidations, Stocks Could be Stabilizing
The forex markets are still generally staying in consolidative mode today, showing minimal reaction to the latest economic data and comments from central bank officials. Commodity currencies, along with Swiss Franc, are displaying relative strength. Meanwhile, Euro,...
AUDJPY Pulls Back But Stays in Uptrend
AUDJPY prints higher highs and higher lows above uptrend line MACD and RSI detect positive momentum A break above 100.80 will confirm a higher high For the outlook to change, a break below 95.80 may be needed AUDJPY pulled back lately, after it hit resistance at...
US initial jobless claims unchanged at 212k, vs exp 214k
US initial claims was unchanged at 212k in April 13, slightly below expectation of 214k. Four-week moving average of initial claims was also unchanged at 214.5k. Continuing claims rose 2k to 1812k in the week ending April 6. Four-week moving average of continuing...
Bundesbank highlights modest improvement in German economy with ongoing risks
Bundesbank, in its latest monthly report, suggested some improvement in the German economy though underlying weaknesses remain. The report notes, “Germany’s economic situation has brightened somewhat, but it remains weak at its core,” signaling uncertainty about the...
BTCUSD Drops to 6-Week Low as Halving Looms
BTCUSD falls temporarily below 60,000 ahead of halving Momentum indicators point to intensifying downside pressures BTCUSD (Bitcoin) experienced a strong pullback following the formation of a triple top pattern, sliding below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA)....
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.20; (P) 164.51; (R1) 165.08; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend towards 169.96 key resistance next. However, decisive break of 162.26 support will argue...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.70; (P) 192.27; (R1) 192.86; More.. Range trading continues in GBP/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 189.97 support...
WTI: Oil Prices Fall Further on Rising Demand Concerns
WTI oil price dips further in early Thursday, in extension of previous day’s 3% drop (the second biggest daily loss in 2024) and hit new three-week low. Stronger than expected rise in US crude inventories (EIA report) further raised concerns about oil demand, while...
ECB’s de Guindos: We have been crystal clear on June rate cut
During a European Parliament hearing today, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that ECB has been “crystal clear” on its conditional guidance regarding interest rate cut. “If things continue as they have been evolving lately, in June we’ll be ready to reduce the...
WTI Oil Futures Exit Sideways Move to the Downside
WTI oil futures complete bearish triangle pattern after Wednesday’s drop Bullish pressures could still resurface as long as the price holds above 81.50 WTI oil futures tumbled by 2.8% to 82.84 on Wednesday, experiencing one of their biggest daily losses so far this...
Aussie Resilient in Face of Dismal Job Data, Bitcoin Prepares to Conclude Consolidation
The forex markets are rather subdued in today’s Asian session, with major currency pairs and crosses largely trading within yesterday’s ranges. Australian Dollar strengthened slightly, ignoring significantly weaker-than-anticipated job data. Instead, it’s lifted by...
FX option expiries for 18 April 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for USD/JPY with the big one being a $6 billion set of expiries at 153.00. That is seen quite a distance away from the current spot price, but it is one to take note of given the size. That...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9111; (P) 0.9132; (R1) 0.9152; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.9151 is extending. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9151 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8550 to...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.18; (P) 154.48; (R1) 155.04; More… Intraday bias stays mildly on the upside with 153.89 minor support intact. USD/JPY is still in favor to rise towards 155.20 fibonacci projection level. But upside could be limited there, at least on first...
GBP/USD Rises as UK Inflation Higher than Expected
The British pound has rebounded after sliding 2.1% over the past week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2461, up 0.28%. UK inflation drops to 3.2% Inflation in the UK continues to decline but the March release was not as strong as expected. Inflation...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Fed Chair Powell yesterday rubberstamped a delay of the inaugural Fed rate cut as inflation doesn’t provide the confidence needed to ease policy anytime soon. Yields yesterday still gained a few bps, but today markets came to a short term evaluation point. US...
ECB’s Cipollone to consider easing if June and July data confirm inflation progress
During a conference today, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone emphasized the importance of incoming data in the months of June and July in shaping ECB’s approach to ease its current restrictive measures. “If we see that the incoming data…will confirm our...
Worst of Both Worlds: Are the Risks of Stagflation Elevated? Part I
Summary In this first report of a three-part series, we present a framework to characterize historical episodes of stagflation into mild, moderate or severe episodes. Iain Macleod coined the term “stagflation” during an address to the House of Commons in 1965: “We now...
Market Continues to Price in a Plethora of Rate Cuts for 2024
Market is still in monetary easing mode despite fewer rate cuts priced in across the board Divergent cut expectations for the Fed and the ECB, reflecting economic conditions The ECB and the BoC are seen cutting in July; the RBA might not cut rates this year BoJ is...
BoE’s Greene: Middle East poses energy and supply side risks
BoE MPC member Megan Greene expressed concerns today during a seminar about the economic repercussions of ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Highlighting the region’s significance, Greene pointed out the risks associated with an energy price shock and other supply...
EURGBP Maintains Bearish Bias Amid Pennant Formation
EURGBP tests uptrend line as it resumes slide Risks are tilted to the downside But pennant pattern suggests more consolidation EURGBP has been drifting lower after its latest attempt to break above the medium-term descending trendline failed, peaking at 0.8585. The...
Sterling Wavers after UK CPI, Kiwi Leads
Sterling is having a volatile trading day, initially gaining ground after UK CPI data which indicated slower pace of disinflation than anticipated. Despite this, the currency struggled to maintain its momentum as the data did not substantially alter the broader...
XAU/USD: Gold Steadies Near $2,400 Barrier
Gold regained traction after a $100 per ounce pullback from new record high last week and pressuring again psychological $2400 barrier. Overall sentiment remains positive as geopolitical tensions and fears that the conflict in the Middle East can escalate, continue to...
EUR/CHF Technical: Bullish Exhaustion Condition Detected After 2-Month of Rallies
A bolder dovish ECB increases the likelihood of a yield premium shrinkage of Eurozone sovereign bonds over Switzerland sovereign bonds. The recent 2-month of rallies seen in the EUR/CHF have been overstretched with bearish momentum conditions flashed out. EUR/CHF is...
EUR/USD Nosedives While USD/JPY Extend Rally
EUR/USD started another decline and traded below 1.0700. USD/JPY surged and broke the 154.00 resistance zone. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0695 support zone. There was a break above a key...
USD/JPY Analysis: Prospect of a Breakout of the Level of 155 Yen per Dollar
The USD/JPY rate has consistently reached new highs since 1990, approaching the psychological level of 155 yen per US dollar. The Japanese currency has already fallen about 9% against the dollar this year. This is supported by Jerome Powell, who suggested yesterday...
USDJPY on the Verge of Hitting 155.00 Milestone
Overbought signals persist as USDJPY approaches the 155.00 level Bullish trend expected to hold strong above 151.00 After an explosive bullish session on Monday, USDJPY is now a short distance below the 155.00 psychological level, recording its sixth consecutive week...
EURJPY Found Buyers After 3 Waves Pull Back
Greetings fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of EURJPY, published in members area of the website. As many of you already know, we’ve been leaning towards long positions in YEN pairs. EURJPY recently...
Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.4% yoy, core CPI at 2.9% yoy
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.4% yoy in March, down from February’s 2.6% yoy. CPI core (energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 2.9% yoy, down from prior month’s 3.1% yoy. The highest contribution to annual Eurozone inflation rate came from services...
Brent crude prices dip amid concerns over global demand
Brent crude oil prices decreased slightly on Wednesday, falling to 89.50 USD per barrel. The decline is primarily attributed to concerns over global oil demand, particularly given the economic indicators coming out of China, the world’s largest energy importer....
FX option expiries for 17 April 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first one being for EUR/USD at 1.0630, which could help to limit price action movement in the session ahead. The pair is consolidating somewhat around 1.0610-40, so the expiries should help to keep that...
Dollar Rally Cooling Off, Kiwi Rebounds Post-CPI
Dollar’s rally appeared to be slowing a little despite extended rally in benchmark treasury yields, the selloff in US stocks could be stabilizing too. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comment that interest rate could stay at current level for longer if inflation persist...
XAU/USD Gold Price Reaches an Important Resistance Zone
The XAU/USD gold chart today indicates that the historical record price of the metal is above USD 2,400 per ounce. In addition to fears of a new round of inflation due to rising commodity prices, geopolitical tensions are seen as the most important reason for the...
Frightened Crypto Market Chooses a Path
Market picture The sell-off in US stock markets affected global risk appetite late on Monday, reversing initial positivity. As a result, crypto market capitalisation fell 5.4% in 24 hours to 2.29 trillion, back near the weekend lows. The market is hovering near the...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0608; (P) 1.0636; (R1) 1.0653; More… A temporary low is in place at 1.0601 in EUR/USD with 4H MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2421; (P) 1.2460; (R1) 1.2484; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point and more consolidations could be seen. Recovery should be limited by 1.2577 minor resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, firm break of 1.2407...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9101; (P) 0.9126; (R1) 0.9141; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation continues below 0.9151. But further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9151 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8550 to...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.34; (P) 153.89; (R1) 154.83; More… USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend should target 155.20 fibonacci projection level next. On the downside, below 154.12 minor support will turn intraday...
Fed’s Jefferson ready to maintain current interest rate if inflation persists
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson stated in a speech that his “baseline outlook” anticipates further decline in inflation while maintaining the current policy rate. He expects the labor market to stay robust and labor demand and supply continue to rebalance. However,...
ECB’s Lagarde eyes policy moderation barring any major shock
In an interview with CNBC today, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed cautious optimism about the ongoing disinflationary trends, noting that disinflation is aligning with ECB’s forecasts. Lagarde emphasized the need for ECB to gain “a bit more confidence” in...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets European stock opened around 1.5% weaker this morning, catching up with losses inflicted on WS’s benchmark indices last night and Asian bourses this morning by Israel’s lingering treat to strike back against Iran. The EuroStoxx 50 tested the 50d moving average...
Higher Energy Prices Masked Another Downside Canadian Inflation Surprise in March
Canadian CPI growth ticked up to 2.9% year-over-year in March from 2.8% in the prior month, thanks to higher energy prices. Despite the rise, details in the report continue to point to price pressures broadly unwinding. Trends in food and energy inflation continue to...
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3744; (P) 1.3769; (R1) 1.3814; More… USD/CAD’s rally from 1.3176 is in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Decisive break of 100% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3540 from 1.3477 at 1.3841 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.3980....
Euro Sees Modest Recovery Amid Improved Economic Sentiment, Canadian Down after CPI
Euro rises broadly today, lifted by significant improvement in economic sentiment indicators from Germany and the broader Eurozone. Despite these positive signals, current situation assessment remains subdued. While the worst may be over for Germany’s economy, in...
Canada’s CPI edges up to 2.9%, but core measures slow
In March, Canada’s CPI saw a slight increase, rising from 2.8% yoy to 2.9% yoy. However, when excluding gasoline, CPI actually slowed from 2.9% yoy to 2.8% yoy. A closer look at the components reveals that services prices experienced a sharper increase, rising from...
GBP/USD Dips After Weak Employment Data
The British pound dropped 0.30% after today’s UK employment report but has recovered most of these losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2452, up 0.05%. UK job growth slides, unemployment rises The UK employment report was weaker than expected. Job...
Currency War and Geopolitical Risk are Deadly Concoctions for Risk Assets
The odds have inched higher for a currency war scenario where the Chinese yuan may be weakened further to drive export growth due to its latest decelerating growth trend in China’s retail sales and persistent weak housing prices. Export-oriented countries may be...
CADJPY Elliott Wave : Forecasting the Rally After 3 Waves Pull Back
In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of CADJPY , published in members area of the website. As our members know we are favoring the long side in YEN pairs. Recently the pair has given us 3 waves pull back that found buyers...
NZD Hits Five-Month Low Against Strong US Dollar
The New Zealand dollar has plummeted to a five-month low, with the NZD/USD pair touching the 0.5890 mark. This decline was triggered by the release of robust American retail sales data, which raised concerns that the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts...
EUR/USD: Limited Consolidation to Precede Fresh Push Lower
EURUSD edges higher from new 5 ½ month low 1.0602) on Tuesday, as strongly oversold daily studies prompted profit-taking. Near-term sentiment turned fully bearish, and the action weighed by a large weekly bearish candle (the par was down 1.8% last week). Upticks...
German ZEW jumps to 42.9, euro’s depreciation helps
German ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped from 31.7 to 42.9 in April, well above expectation of 35.1, and marks the highest level since March 2022. But Current Situation Index improved just slightly from -80.5 to -79.2. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment also surged from 33.5...
GBPUSD Pulls Back into the Negative Zone
GBPUSD inches down to a new five-month low An extension below 1.2400 could generate fresh selling interest GBPUSD tried to breach the psychological barrier at 1.2500 and re-establish itself within the 1.2488-1.2892 range. But its efforts proved unsuccessful, with the...
ECB’s Rehn points to June rate cuts, but warns of geopolitical risks
ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn highlighted in a statement that reduction in policy restrictions could commence in June as long as “inflation continues to fall as projected.” But he also addressed the predominant risks, identifying “geopolitics” as the primary...
FX option expiries for 16 April 10am New York cut
There isn't much to really take note of for the day. As such, trading sentiment will continue to rely more on the overall market mood instead. And at the moment, the prevailing narrative is in favour of a stronger dollar as Fed rate cut bets are pared while...
Dollar Maintains Dominance as Global Markets Wrestle with Risk Aversion
Dollar is capitalizing on its strong position and extends its rally om Asian session today, as risk aversion grips global markets. US stocks, which initially showed gains overnight, ultimately closed significantly lower as Treasury yields climbed in response to robust...
Crude Oil’s Tactical Retreat, Unlikely Turn Around
Oil is losing more than 1% on Monday, below $84 a barrel for WTI and below $89 for Brent after Friday’s rollercoaster, when prices peaked above $87 and $91.6, respectively. The drivers were geopolitics, where fears of an escalation of the conflict between Israel and...
ECB’s Kazimir cautions on post-June monetary policy, stresses flexibility
ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir highlighted emphasized the importance of maintaining a flexible monetary policy stance beyond an initial rate reduction possibly in June. He underscored that the decision to lower rates in June should be viewed as a...
US retail sales rises 0.7% mom in Jun, ex-auto sales up 1.1% mom
US retail sales rose 0.7% mom to 709.6B in June, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 1.1% mom to USD 575.5B, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 655.0B. Ex-auto and gasoline sales rose 1.0% mom. to USD 520.9B. Total...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2396; (P) 1.2481; (R1) 1.2535; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with 4H MACD crossed above signal line. Some consolidations would be seen first, but recovery should be limited by 1.2577 minor resistance to bring another fall. On...
U.S. Retail Sales Rebound in February
Retail sales rose by 0.7% month-on-month (m/m) in March, adding to February’s upwardly revised 0.9 % gain (previously 0.6%). The increase was higher than the consensus forecast calling for a more modest increase of 0.4% Trade in the auto sector was down -0.7% m/m,...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.78; (P) 153.08; (R1) 153.58; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current up trend is in progress for 155.20 fibonacci projection level next. On the downside, below 153.37 minor support will turn intraday bias...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9105; (P) 0.9126; (R1) 0.9164; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral first. Consolidation from 0.9146 might still extend further. But further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9146 will target 161.8%...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Geopolitics as a market theme tend to have a limited shelf life but investors this time really took it to the next level. Except for some minor bourse losses in Asia, Iran’s retaliatory attacks against Israel didn’t trigger the slightest risk aversion in...
USDJPY Rallies to Another Fresh 34-Year High
USDJPY surpasses 154.00 Round numbers to be watched Stochastics indicate overstretched market USDJPY is surging to another multi-year high above the 154.00 round number, adding 0.8% so far today. The technical oscillators are holding in overbought regions. The RSI is...
UK Inflation Report Could Shift Market’s Focus Away from Geopolitics
BoE’s determination could be tested if this week’s CPI prints surprise on the upside Pound could benefit from a strong set of data this week Employment data will be released on Tuesday; the inflation report on Wednesday Inflation in the spotlight At the last Bank of...
Fed’s Williams foresees interest rate normalization starting this year
In an interview with BloombergTV. New York Fed President John Williams suggested that Fed is still on track to start cutting interest rates within the year. “We will need to start a process at some point to bring interest rates back to more normal levels, and my own...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0599; (P) 1.0665; (R1) 1.0708; More… No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside. Current fall is part of the decline from 1.1138. Next target is 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536 next. On the...
Strong Retail Sales Spur Brief Dollar Bounce; More Consolidations First?
Dollar bounces slightly in early US trading following unexpectedly strong retail sales data. However, there is no clear follow through buying in the greenback for now. The only exception is USD/JPY which continues to make new 34-year highs. Against others, Dollar...
ECB’s Lane: Disinflation process necessarily bumpy at current phase
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane described disinflation process as “necessarily bumpy” at the current phase. In a speech, he pointed out that headline inflation is expected to “fluctuate around current levels in the near term,” influenced by base effects in energy...
Euro Ends Slide as Industrial Production Rebounds
The euro has stabilized on Monday after sustaining sharp losses on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0656, up 0.14%. The US dollar posted strong gains last week against the majors and surged 1.8% against the euro, which fell to a six-month low....
US 500 Reverses Towards 123.6% Fibonacci
US 500 cash index experiences a minor pullack Meets support at 123.6% Fibo extension of its 2022 downtrend Oscillators exit overbought zones, but do not weaken dramatically The US 500 stock index (cash) has been staging an impressive rally since it bottomed out in...
US Dollar Exhibits Remarkable Strength Amid Global Tensions
The EUR/USD pair has experienced a notable decline, currently stabilising around 1.0648. Last week, the pair recorded its most significant weekly gain since 2022, fuelled by the anticipation of persistently high interest rates in the US and escalated conflicts in the...
Gold in a Wait-and-See Mode
Gold opens near Friday’s closing price as safe-haven demand stabilizes Bulls wait for a break above 2,430; Bears anticipate a drop below 2,325 It was a harsh weekend, as Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone attack against Israel sparked concerns of global conflict....
It’s tax-filing day in the US, that’s good and bad news
The bad news is that Americans need to reach into their pockets today, the good news is that it's a seasonal low point for the month. according to this Goldman Sachs chart.All that said, the Israel-Iran fighting is going to be the dominant theme in trading...
Gold: Sharp Pullback from New All-Time High Warns that Bulls Might be Losing Traction
Gold keeps firm tone in early Monday, despite strong pullback from new record high ($2431) in late Friday trading. Growing geopolitical tensions and fears of escalation of the conflict in the Middle East continue to fuel demand for safe haven bullion, with strong...
Eurozone industrial production rises 0.8% mom in Feb, EU up 0.7% mom
Eurozone industrial production rose 0.8% mom in February, matched expectations. Production increased by 0.5% for intermediate goods, 1.2% for capital goods, and 1.4% for durable consumer goods. On the other hand, production by -3.0% for energy, and -0.9% for...
Crypto Let Off Steam Rather than Start a Reversal
Market picture It was a non-boring weekend for the cryptocurrency market. Market sentiment swung sharply towards buying the dollar and selling stocks, gold, and cryptos on Friday afternoon. Also operating over the weekend, the crypto market accelerated its decline on...
ECB’s Simkus anticipates three rate cuts this year, possibly four
ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus forecasted three 25bps rate cuts for this year, with a potential for a fourth. “I see a higher than 50% chance there will be more than three cuts this year,” he told reporters. Simkus also highlighted that the ECB might...
Yen Hits 34-Year Low Against Dollar Amid Inaction from Japanese Authorities
The forex markets are primarily focused on Yen’s continued broad-based decline as another trading week commences. In particular, the Japanese currency has now reached a new 34-year low against Dollar. Despite frequent official warnings and the expressed readiness to...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: The Dollar Soars Last week saw two significant events: the first shocked market participants, while the second passed without surprises. Let’s examine the details in order. Since mid-2022, consumer prices in the US have been declining. In July 2022, the...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s decline last week indicates short term topping at 0.9847, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9847 at 0.9620. But strong support is expected from there to contain downside to...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP stays in established range last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 0.8529 support will argue that the corrective recovery from 0.8497 has completed at 0.8601. Intraday bias will be back...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY failed to break through 165.33 last week and retreated sharply since then. Despite brief breach of 162.59 support, it recovered quickly. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend towards...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY retreated deeply after failing to break through 193.51 resistance, but recovered after breaching 190.02 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance....
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s steep decline last week suggests that consolidation from 0.6442 has completed at 0.6643 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Firm break of 1.6442 will confirm resumption of the fall from 0.6870 and target 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s up trend from 0.8332 resumed last week but turn sideway again after hitting 0.9146. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Above 0.9146 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s up trend resumed last week by breaking through 151.93 resistance. But it retreated after hitting 153.37. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 150.80 support holds. Above 153.37 will target...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1138 resumed by break through 1.0694 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536 next. Firm break there will target 1.0447 support next. On the upside, above 1.0698 minor...
Bets on June Fed Rate Cut Abandoned, Dollar Asserts Dominance
The financial markets were jolted last week by data confirming the stall in disinflation progress in the US. This development prompted traders to quickly revise their expectations regarding Fed’s monetary policy, withdrawing bets on a June rate reduction. This shift...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s fall from 1.2892 resumed accelerated to as low as 1.2425 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.2892 to 1.2538 from 1.2708 at 1.2354. Firm break there will target 161.8% projection at 1.2207 next. On the upside,...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD’s rally from 1.3176 resumed last week and accelerated to close at 1.3770. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3540 from 1.3477 at 1.3841. On the downside, below 1.3724 minor support will turn intraday bias...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6742 extended to 1.6368 last week before turning sideway. Initial bias stays neutral this week first, but risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6516 resistance holds. On the downside, below 1.6368 will resume the fall from 1.6742 towards...
Canadian Inflation to Tick Higher as BoC Considers Rate Cuts
The Bank of Canada will be focused on the March Canadian consumer price index report next Tuesday after another upward surprise in U.S. price growth created doubt about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting plans this year. Slower price growth in Canada in recent...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: No, No, After You
Summary United States: Are We There Yet? The March consumer price data dominated the economic discussion this week and are the latest to support that the timing and degree of Fed easing will be later and smaller than many of us previously expected. We’re not yet...
The Weekly Bottom Line: One Hundred Days into 2024, Rate Cuts Remain on the Horizon
U.S. Highlights Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, accelerated to 3.5% year-on-year in March – the highest reading in six months. Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting in March showed that officials remained in favor of exercising patience amid...
Summary 4/15 – 4/19
Monday, Apr 15, 2024 Tuesday, Apr 16, 2024 Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024 Thursday, Apr 18, 2024 Friday, Apr 19, 2024 The post Summary 4/15 – 4/19 appeared first on Action Forex.
US DJIA Technical: Major US Banks’ Q1 Earnings in Focus Over Adverse Macro Factors
Three major US banks; JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will report their Q1 2024 earnings results today. JPMorgan Chase is ranked 13th in terms of component weightage in the DJIA. Analysts’ Q1 earnings estimates for these three US banks have been lowered...
Australian Dollar Struggles Amid Robust US Economic Data
The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure, hovering around 0.6528 on Friday. Earlier this week, the Australian dollar faced significant challenges, with a sharp decline against the USD. Efforts to stabilise the exchange rate have seen limited success thus far. The...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0697; (P) 1.0727; (R1) 1.0755; More… EUR/USD’s decline extends through 1.0694 support today. The development confirms resumption of whole fall from 1.1138. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2516; (P) 1.2548; (R1) 1.2584; More… GBP/USD’s fall continues to as low as 1.2452 so far. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 100% projection of 1.2892 to 1.2538 from 1.2708 at 1.2354 next. On the upside, above 1.2538 support turned resistance...
GBP/USD: Break of Pivotal Supports Sparks Fresh Acceleration Lower
Cable fell to the lowest in nearly five months on Friday, following fresh bearish acceleration through psychological 1.2500 support and Fibo level at 1.2465 (50% retracement of 1.2037/1.2893 uptrend. Breach of a multi-month range floor (1.2518) weakens the structure...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets This morning we wrote: “The dollar holds the better cards against both the euro and the pound. EUR/USD is nearing the 1.07 pivot again and GBP/USD holds close to 1.25 this morning. Which will break first?” Well, both, it turned out. A clearer than ever...
Weekly Focus – US Inflation Shakes Up Markets
A surprisingly high US inflation print this week triggered the biggest shake-up in US bond markets in more than a year. The US 2-year government bond yield closed 23bp higher on the day, which was the biggest one-day move since March last year. It reflects a further...
Week Ahead – More Inflation Data on the Way as Rate Cut Bets Thrown into Disarray
CPI numbers due in the UK, Japan, Canada and New Zealand China to also come into the spotlight as Q1 GDP eyed US retail sales to kickstart the week as earnings season gets underway CPI figures to headline UK data flurry After yet another hot CPI report in the United...
Will US Retail Sales Add Juice to the Dollar’s Rally?
US retail sales will hit the markets at 12:30 GMT Monday Early Easter holiday likely boosted consumer spending Another solid dataset could put more wind in the dollar’s sails US economy outperforms By most indications, the US economy finished the first quarter on a...
EURUSD Has Bucked the Trend, Threatening to Fall Below Parity
EURUSD is losing 1.9% from Wednesday’s peak to a five-month low at 1.0650. US inflation data and ECB comments highlight the divergence of Fed and ECB monetary policy. Wednesday’s US inflation report appears to have set the trend for the dollar, taking it out of a more...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9068; (P) 0.9107; (R1) 0.9140; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment, as consolidation from 0.9146 continues. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Break of 0.9146 will resume whole rally from 0.8332....
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.92; (P) 153.12; (R1) 153.48; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with 4H MACD crossed below signal line. Some consolidations could be seen first. But further rally is expected as long as 150.80 support holds. Break of 153.37...
NZ Dollar Slips as Manufacturing Softens
The New Zealand dollar is down sharply on Friday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5956, down 0.68%. The US dollar has moved higher against the majors and NZD/USD has declined about 1% this week. NZ manufacturing PMI contracts for 13th straight...
Persistent Dollar Rally Accompanied by Yen and Franc Comebacks
Dollar’s rally presses on today and extends into early US session, reflecting continued strength even after a period of brief consolidation. Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen are also rebounding notably, indicating a broader trend of currency strength in traditionally...
XAU/USD: Gold Hits New Record High
Gold climbed to new all-time high on Friday and cracked psychological barrier at $2400, remaining at a high speed and again taking just few days for a trip from one to another round-figure barrier. Growing geopolitical tensions continue to fuel safe haven demand,...
Fed’s Collins in the range of two rate cuts this year
In a Reuters interview, Boston Fed President Susan Collins revealed that she “in the range of two” rate cuts for this year, as per the quarterly forecast she submitted during the Fed’s March meeting. Collins was clear that an increase in interest rates is “not part of...
Cryptocurrencies Look Stronger Than Stocks
Market picture The crypto market continues to avoid gaining momentum on the upside but remains within an uptrend: the bulls fail to accelerate price gains, but the overall upward trend remains. ‘Extreme Greed’ persists in the markets, with the corresponding index at...
EUR/USD Extends Steep Fall as Bears Take Full Control After US Inflation Data/ECB Policy Decision
The Euro continues to trend lower and hit new 2024 in early Friday, as steep fall extends into third consecutive day, keeping the pair on track to the biggest weekly loss since the second week of May 2023. The single currency stumbled after hotter than expected US...
USDCAD Reaches New 2024 High; Could This Move Continue?
USDCAD trades higher again, tests strong resistance level It is the bulls’ first attempt to break above the current trend channel Momentum indicators are mixed with a possible bearish divergence developing USDCAD is trading higher again today, recording its fourth...
ECB’s Stournaras advocates for insurance rate cut to nurture Eurozone recovery
ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras expressed the need for an “insurance rate cut” to bolster the nascent recovery within Eurozone. Speaking to Bloomberg, Stournaras highlighted the critical balance the ECB aims to maintain in fostering economic growth...
GBPUSD Outlook Worsens After Rapid Fall
GBPUSD prints new low for this year Bearish continuation is likely below 1.2480-1.2500 GBPUSD suffered a freefall in the face of hotter-than-expected US CPI inflation data on Tuesday and dropped to a new low of 1.2504 on Friday, retracing back to December’s lows and...
Gold Price Hits New High While Crude Oil Price Consolidates
Gold price surged toward the $2,400 zone and traded to a new all-time high. Crude oil is attempting a fresh increase above the $85.00 zone. Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today Gold price started a strong increase above the $2,350 zone against...
FX option expiries for Friday, 12 April 2024 at the 10am New York cut
EUR/USD: 1.0700 (EUR3.09b), 1.0780 (EUR1.04b)USD/CNY: 7.2500 (US$1.41b)USD/JPY: 152.00 (US$1.03b), 150.00 (US$1.02b)AUD/USD: 0.6520 (AUD1b), 0.6500 (AUD697.6m), 0.6450 (AUD675m)USD/CAD: 1.3685 (US$913.1m), 1.3650 (US$504.2m), 1.3727 (US$466.2m)GBP/USD: 1.2600...
Dollar Holds Gains, Gold Hits Record, Sterling Awaits UK GDP
The forex markets turned quieter in Asian session today with minimal movements. Dollar is consolidating this week’s strong gain but there is no sign of extended pullback for now. There is still prospect for more upside before weekly close, and U of Michigan consumer...
What’s Behind the US Economy’s Resilience?
US economy is still sizzling, outperforming other regions Several factors behind this strength, such as heavy public spending For US dollar to enjoy a massive rally, it may also need risk aversion Why is the US economy still so strong? One of the most striking...
ECB explicitly opens door to rate cuts
ECB maintained its interest rates as widely expected, holding main refinancing rate and deposit rate at 4.50% and 4.00%. Most importantly, for the first time, the central bank explicitly indicated the possibility for future interest rate cuts, which would be seen as a...
US initial jobless claims falls to 211k
US initial jobless claims fell -11k to 211k in the week ending April 6, below expectation of 215k. Four week moving average of initial claims fell -250 to 214k. Continuing claims rose 28k to 1817k in the week ending March 30. Four-week moving average of continuing...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0692; (P) 1.0779; (R1) 1.0830; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. Decisive break of 1.0694/0723 support zone will resume whole fall from 1.1138. Next target is 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2471; (P) 1.2589; (R1) 1.2659; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside. Decisive break of 1.2517 support will carry larger bearish implication. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.2892 to 1.2538...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9051; (P) 0.9100; (R1) 0.9177; More…. As long as 0.8996 support holds, further rally is expected in USD/CHF. Current rise is part of the whole rally from 0.8332. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.8818. However,...
European Central Bank On Course For June Easing
Summary The European Central Bank held monetary policy steady at today’s announcement, though we view the accompanying statement as laying the groundwork for a probable ECB rate cut in June. The ECB cited an easing in underlying inflation and moderating wage growth....
ETHUSD Finds Support at 50-day SMA
ETHUSD slides after recording 1-month peak But the 50-day SMA curbs its retreat Momentum indicators ease in positive zones ETHUSD (Ethereum) experienced a strong pullback from its 2024 peak of 4,090, dropping to as low as 3,060. This week, the price recorded a fresh...
ECB Review: The Direction is Clear
Today, the ECB decided to leave policy rates unchanged as unanimously expected. A rate cut looks set to come in June, subject to further confidence on the three criteria that have guided ECB policy making through the past year. The next to no new policy signals left...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The ECB kept its policy rates unchanged. A few members were already inclined to lower rates, but they eventually rallied behind the consensus. In it policy statement, the central bank altered its forward guidance preparing for a likely policy rate cut in June....
Fed’s Williams: Fed to stay data-dependent as outlook ahead is uncertain
New York Fed President John Williams suggested that, should the economy evolve as anticipated, it would be prudent to “dial back the policy restraint gradually over time, starting this year.” However, he was quick to stress the inherent uncertainty in the economic...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.09; (P) 152.66; (R1) 153.73; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains on the upside. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03 will target 155.20 projection level next. On the downside,...
Euro Declines After ECB Opens Door for Rate Cuts, Dollar Eases Following PPI Data
Euro weakens broadly following ECB’s decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, coupled with explicit suggestions of a potential rate cut ahead. However, selloff has been relatively mild, primarily because ECB’s statement didn’t serve as a definitive...
US PPI at 0.2% mom, 2.1% yoy in Mar, below expectations
US PPI for final demand rose 0.2% mom in March, below expectation of 0.3% mom. PPI final demand services rose 0.3% mom while final demand goods fell -0.1% mom. For the 12-month period, PPI jumped from 1.6% yoy to 2.1% yoy, below expectation of 2.3% yoy. But that was...
(ECB) Monetary policy decisions – Action Forex
The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The incoming information has broadly confirmed the Governing Council’s previous assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. Inflation has continued to fall, led by lower food...
EURGBP’s Double Bottom Still Waits for Confirmation
EURGBP faces difficulty in completing a double bottom pattern above 0.8579 Technical indicators reflect a lack of bullish momentum ECB rate decision could generate fresh volatility at 12:15 GMT ECB governor Lagarde holds press conference at 14:15 GMT EURGBP drifted...
USD/JPY Technical: Rising US Treasury-JGB Yield Spreads Outweigh BoJ’s Intervention Risk
A firmer March’s US CPI has altered the relative fundamentals narrative between the US & Japan. Reduces the risk of FX intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up a weaker JPY due to the lack of supporting fundamentals. The bullish reversal seen in the...
EUR/USD: Bears Taking a Breather Ahead of ECB Policy Decision
The Euro remains firmly in red and holding near last week’s low at 1.0725, following a sharp fall on Wednesday (the pair was down 1%). Higher than expected US inflation in March, cooled market expectations for Fed’s first rate cut in June and provided strong boost to...
BoE’s Greene cautions inflation persistence more pronounced in UK than in US.
In an opinion piece in FT, BoE MPC member Megan Greene explicitly urges market participants to “stop comparing” the monetary policies of the UK and US. Greene’s commentary comes in the wake of the US March CPI inflation report released yesterday, which surpassed...
WTI Oil Pauses Rally But Remains Supported
WTI oil futures step on 84.69 once again, hold near recent highs Technical indicators show some weakness, but trend signals are positive WTI oil futures kept their footing on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September-December downtrend at 84.69 on Wednesday and...
AUDUSD Plummets in the US CPI Aftermath
AUDUSD drops 1.7% on hotter-than-expected US CPI data Violates both 50- and 200-day SMAs before finding its feet Momentum indicators deteriorate drastically AUDUSD had been in a steady advance since the beginning of April, posting a fresh one-month high of 0.6643 on...
Cable’s Sharp Decline after Higher Inflation in the US
In a significant turn of events, the GBP/USD pair, often referred to as ‘Cable’, reversed sharply to the downside in the last 24 hours. This movement was characterized by the price decisively breaking through the corrective channel’s support line, signaling a strong...
Dollar Holds Strong as June Rate Cut Expectations Wane; ECB to be Non-Event
Dollar remains firm in Asian session after the strong post-CPI rally. US stocks were deeply sold off as a June Fed rate cut is further priced out by the markets. Market attention is now keenly focused on the upcoming PPI for March, as well as University of Michigan’s...
US: Core Inflation Comes in on the Hotter Side for a Third Consecutive Month
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month (m/m) in March, in line with the consensus forecast. On a twelve-month basis, CPI inched higher to 3.5% (from 3.2% in February). Energy prices were driven higher by further gains in gasoline prices (+1.7% m/m)...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9011; (P) 0.9038; (R1) 0.9064; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the upside with break of 0.9094 resistance. Current rise is part of the whole rally from 0.8332. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.8818....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2645; (P) 1.2677; (R1) 1.2709; More… GBP/USD’s sharp decline argues that rebound from 1.2538 has completed at 1.2708 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.2517 key support. Sustained break there will turn near term outlook...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0842; (P) 1.0863; (R1) 1.0879; More… EUR/USD’s break of 1.0790 support argues that rebound from 1.0723 has completed at 1.0884 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside of 1.0723 support. Break there will target 1.0694 support next. For now,...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Strike three. Some dismissed the hotter-than-expected inflation prints in January and February as statistical flukes that would soon be reversed. March delivered another nasty upside surprise. Headline CPI rose from 3.2% to 3.5% vs 3.4% expected while the...
(BOC) Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening
The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. The Bank expects the global economy to continue growing at a rate of about 3%,...
Bank of Canada Upgrades Outlook for Economy, Remains Silent on Rate Cuts
The Bank of Canada maintained the overnight rate at 5.0%, while stating that it will continue with Quantitative Tightening (QT). In its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank upgraded its economic growth forecast, stating “this largely reflects both strong...
Is There a Possibility of No Fed Rate Cuts This Year?
A summer rate cut by the Fed hangs in the balance amid persistent inflation Rate cut bets have been scaled back from more than six to around two But limited fallout on Wall Street; can the risk rally survive no rate cuts? Waiting for the elusive rate cut Ever since...
Strong Inflation Jumpstarts Dollar – Action Forex
US inflation once again beat expectations, causing markets to further discount the chances of an easing cycle starting in June. The dollar responded with a 1% rise against a basket of major currencies, taking the DXY back to 104.80. The dollar recorded two peaks near...
BoC stays the course, no explicit hint on rate cut
BoC maintains overnight rate at 5.00% as widely expected. The central bank’s statement highlighted that both the CPI and core inflation have “eased further” in recent months, though they remain at elevated levels. BoC emphasized its intention to monitor whether the...
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3546; (P) 1.3572; (R1) 1.3598; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD is back on the upside with break of 1.3646 resistance. Firm break of channel resistance would prompt upside acceleration, and extend the rally from 1.3176 to 1.3897 resistance next. On...
AUD/USD Mid-Day Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6602; (P) 0.6624; (R1) 0.6649; More… AUD/USD’s break of 0.6548 suggests that rebound from 0.6480 has completed at 0.6643. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.6480 support. Firm break there will argue that whole fall from 0.6870 is ready to...
US CPI Sparks Strong Dollar Rebound, USD/JPY Breaks 152
Dollar is having a strong, broad-based rebound in early US session, driven by upside surprises in CPI data. The concern for Fed stems not just from the headline inflation spurred by rising energy costs. But more significantly, core inflation failed to slow again,...
US CPI jumps to 3.5% yoy in Mar, CPI core unchanged at 3.8% yoy
US CPI rises 0.4% mom in March, above expectation of 0.3% mom. CPI core (all items less food and energy) rises 0.4% mom, also above expectation of 0.3% mom. Energy index rose 1.1% mom. Food index rose 0.1% mom. For the 12 months period, CPI accelerated from 3.2% yoy...
AUDCAD Rebounds Strongly from Uptrend Line
AUDCAD rallies after hitting uptrend line RSI and MACD detect positive momentum A break above 0.9055 could shift the outlook to clearly bullish But a dip below 0.8810 could invite more bears AUDCAD has been trading in a rally mode since April 2, when it hit support at...
EURCHF Eases Slightly after 1-Year Peak
EURCHF still stands above rising trend line Technical oscillators indicate negative correction EURCHF has been in an ascending tendency since the end of January, and it posted a fresh almost one-year high of 0.9847 in the preceding week. Currently, the market is on...
EUR/USD Holds Steady Ahead of Key Economic Updates
The EUR/USD pair is maintaining a neutral stance, trading around 1.0851 on Wednesday, as the market anticipates crucial updates, including the US inflation data for March and the outcome of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. Given the significant...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.81; (P) 192.33; (R1) 192.93; More….. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point as consolidation from 193.51 could extend. But further rally is expected as long as 190.02 support holds. On the upside, break of 193.51 will resume...
GBP/USD Recovers While EUR/GBP Dips to Support
GBP/USD is gaining pace above the 1.2660 resistance. EUR/GBP declined steadily below the 0.8572 and 0.8566 support levels. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2660. There is a key bullish...
EURUSD Oscillates Within a Sideways Range
EURUSD trades sideways between 1.0725 and 1.0930 Oscillators confirm the lack of directional momentum A move above 1.0930 may be needed to brighten the outlook EURUSD pulled back on Tuesday, after hitting resistance slightly above the 1.0875 barrier, marked by the...
USDJPY Flirts With Intervention Zone
USDJPY trades sideways a tad below 152.00 This level was protected by Japanese authorities in 2022 Momentum indicators approach overbought conditions USDJPY has been in a steady uptrend after finding its feet at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in early March....
Is CADJPY Setting the Ground for Next Bull Run?
CADJPY remains within a range despite hitting new high Upside risks exist above 111.50; bears could take the lead below 110.40 BoC rate decision at 13:45 GMT is the highlight of the Canadian calendar CADJPY remained stagnant after entering the 112.00 area, keeping its...
Kiwi Rallies on RBNZ’s Hawkish Hold; US CPI and BoC Next
New Zealand Dollar rises broadly in Asian session following RBNZ’s decision to keep interest rates steady. The central bank’s “limited tolerance” for delaying the achievement of its inflation target conveyed a hawkish tone. Rate cuts are off the table until the...
Yen Weakens Amid Intervention Concerns and Interest Rate Differentials
The Japanese yen is experiencing a notable decline against the US dollar, with the USD/JPY pair currently hovering around 151.88 on Tuesday. Despite the US dollar’s instability, driven primarily by fluctuations in Treasury bond yields, the yen faces significant...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2624; (P) 1.2644; (R1) 1.2675; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is back on the upside with break of 1.2682. Rebound from 1.2538 would target 1.2802 resistance first. On the downside, though, below 1.2648 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0833; (P) 1.0847; (R1) 1.0874; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD is back on the upside with break of 1.0875 resistance. Rise from 1.0723 would now target 1.0941 resistance first. On the downside, though, below 1.0848 minor support will turn intraday...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9016; (P) 0.9041; (R1) 0.9079; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as consolidation from 0.9094 is extending. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out, but outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8884...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.61; (P) 151.77; (R1) 152.02; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 150.80 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 149.73). On the upside, however,...
AUD/USD Mid-Day Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6573; (P) 0.6592; (R1) 0.6623; More… AUD/USD’s rise from 0.6480 resumed by breaking through 0.6618 resistance and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current development affirms that case pattern from 0.6442 is now in is third leg. Further rise...
EUR/AUD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6398; (P) 1.6456; (R1) 1.6500; More.. EUR/AUD’s decline from 1.6742 resumed by breaking through 1.6412 support and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current development suggests that rebound from 1.6127 has completed. Break of 100% projection...
Gold Temporarily Ignores Negative News
Gold has been hitting all-time highs almost daily for the past two weeks, reaching $2365 in the spot market on Tuesday before the start of US trading. The ability to rise above $2070 per ounce, which gold found in late February, has signalled a break of resistance...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets Core bounds found some reprieve in this week’s second transitory trading session bridging Friday’s payrolls and tomorrow’s US CPI data. German Bunds outperforms US Treasuries after the ECB’s quarterly Bank and Lending Survey provided some more backing for the...
NZ Dollar Climbs Ahead of RBNZ Rate Decision
The New Zealand dollar has posted considerable gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6065, up 0.54% and its highest level since March 21. RBNZ widely expected to hold cash rate The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets early on Wednesday...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Index Edges Lower in March, Falling to the Lowest Level Since 2012
NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.9 points to 88.5 in March, disappointing market expectations for a modest increase to 89.7. This marked the lowest level in the headline index since 2012. Six of the ten subcomponents deteriorated on the month, two improved...
Dollar Declines Without Clear Cause: Strategic Positioning Before Inflation Data?
Dollar falls broadly today and stays weak as markets enter into US session. The underlying cause of this sell-off remains somewhat ambiguous, as there were no significant economic data releases to directly attribute the currency’s selloff. The slight retreat in...
Japanese Yen Steady as Intervention Worries Continue
The Japanese yen is drifting on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.88, up 0.02%. It’s as light data calendar today. Japan’s average cash earnings rose 1.8% y/y in February after a 2% gain in January. This beat the market estimate of 1.4%....
Australian Dollar Extends Gains Despite Soft Confidence Data
The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6620, up 0.25%. Consumer confidence sags Australian consumers have been pessimistic about the economy and their mood soured even more in April. The Westpac...
Bitcoin Proves That It is Bull Market Now
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market added 2.2% in 24 hours to $2.66 trillion, with heavy buying in “older” altcoins. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index climbed to 80 – extreme greed – the highest since 27 March. Bitcoin added over 5% during the day on...
EURJPY Rises Towards 16-Year High
EURJPY rebounds off uptrend line Price holds above SMAs Oscillators indicate more bullish movements EURJPY is climbing higher after the turning point near the medium-term ascending trend line and is moving towards the 16-year high of 165.36. The market has been...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.63; (P) 191.92; (R1) 192.45; More….. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral as consolidations continue below 193.51. On the upside, break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. On the downside, though, break of...
GBPUSD Capped by 50-day SMA
GBPUSD trades sideways between parallel SMAs Remains within its medium-term neutral pattern Momentum indicators improve but stay in negative zones GBPUSD experienced a strong decline following its break above the rangebound structure in place since November. Despite...
AUD/USD: Aussie Dollar Keeps Bullish Bias ahead of US Inflation Report
AUDUSD is trading within a narrow range on Tuesday morning but keeps slight bullish bias following Monday’s 0.5% advance and a positive signal on daily close above 0.6597 (100DMA / Fibo 61.8% of 0.6675/0.6480 bear-leg). Aussie dollar was boosted by rise in iron ore,...
SPX Perfect Buying Opportunity At The Blue Box Area
In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of SPX. We presented to members at the elliottwave-forecast. In which, the rally from the 05 January 2024 low unfolded as an impulse structure and showed a bullish sequence....
EUR/USD: Holds in Extended Sideways Mode, Initial Negative Signals Developing on Daily Chart
Near-term action remains in a directional mode and ranging between converged 55/200DMA’s (1.0831) and 100DMA (1.0871). Strong rejections in both directions in past few sessions add to neutral stance, with the pair looking for fresh direction signals. Daily studies are...
Kiwi Unfazed by Business Confidence Slide, Aussie Maintains Solid Ground
New Zealand Dollar traded broadly higher in Asian session, despite revelation of significant downturn in business confidence for Q1. Kiwi bears seemed to be lightening up their short positions in anticipation of RBNZ rate decision tomorrow, which is broadly expected...
XAU/USD: Gold Hits New Record High Above $2,300
Gold continues to trend higher and posted new record high ($2354) in early Monday trading, in extension of last week’s 4% advance, which generated strong bullish signal on weekly close above psychological $2300 barrier. The metal remains well supported by strong...
Gold Unlocks Fresh All-time High Again
Gold reaches 2,353.90 above 161.8% Fibonacci extension MACD and RSI move higher in overbought regions Gold prices are experiencing a fresh higher high today around the 2,353.90 level, successfully surpassing the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the downward move...
EURUSD Undecided Near Converging SMAs
EURUSD fluctuates near its 50- and 200-day SMAs Forms two successive doji candles, unable to adopt a direction Momentum indicators strengthen but remain negative EURUSD experienced an aggressive decline before finding its feet at 1.0722, a region that also held strong...
SPX 500: Fed Dovish Pivot Narrative is at Risk
Higher oil prices have led to higher inflationary expectations in the US via the breakeven rates. Recent rise in inflationary expectations coupled with recent “less dovish” Fed Speak from Fed officials Kashkari, and Bostic has revived the “higher for longer” interest...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8988; (P) 0.9029; (R1) 0.9061; More…. USD/CHF recovers today but stays below 0.9094 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out, but outlook will stay bullish as long as...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.04; (P) 151.40; (R1) 151.98; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 150.80 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2592; (P) 1.2621; (R1) 1.2666; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2517/38 support zone will suggest that rise from 1.2036 has completed at 1.2892 already, and turn near term...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0803; (P) 1.0826; (R1) 1.0859; More… Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 1.0694/0723 support zone will resume whole fall from 1.1138. On the upside, though, break of 1.0875 will...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Trading to the new week took a slow start data-wise. European production data for sure are no market movers. However, for once, we mention German February production coming out on the stronger side of expectations for the second consecutive month (+2.1% M/M;...
Euro Edges Lower, German Industrial Production Jumps
The euro is calm at the start of the trading week. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0830, down 0.07%. German industrial production rises 2.1% Is the German economy coming out of a downswing? The week started on a positive note as industrial...
US CPI Data Unlikely to Ease Sticky Inflation Worries, But Will Markets Care?
US CPI inflation expected to have ticked up in March But markets may shrug it off if core figure inches lower Data due at 13:30 GMT, Wednesday, will be followed by FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT Will CPI report boost rate cut bets? Inflation data according to the CPI and...
Swiss Franc and Yen Soft on Rising Yields and Metals
Benchmark treasury yields in US and Europe rise notably in a day of relatively slow news flow. At the same time, Copper is extending recent up trend while Gold edged higher to new record. European stock indexes are seeing appreciable gains, and US futures indicate a...
Gold Hits New Record High Amid Favourable Factors
Gold’s price soared to a new record high on Monday, stabilising around 2344.00 USD per troy ounce. A confluence of factors is currently bolstering the precious metal’s value. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are a significant driver, positioning gold as a...
Eurozone Sentix confidence rises to -5.9, yet momentum remains tepid
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index surged from -10.5 to -5.9 in April, surpassing expectations of -8.3. This marks the sixth consecutive increase, reaching its highest since February 2022. Similarly, Current Situation Index climbed from -18.5 to -16.3,...
USD/CAD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3538; (P) 1.3593; (R1) 1.3645; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for channel resistance at 1.3670 first. Sustained break there would prompt upside acceleration towards 1.3897 resistance next. For now, near term outlook will stay...
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9744; (P) 0.9777; (R1) 0.9808; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral for the moment and more consolidations could be seen below 0.9847. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9709 support holds. However, considering bearish...
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6427; (P) 1.6462; (R1) 1.6506; More.. Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.6412 and sustained trading below 1.6439 support will argue that whole rebound from 1.6127 has completed, and turn near term...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8569; (P) 0.8577; (R1) 0.8584; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 0.8529 support will argue that the corrective recovery from 0.8497 has completed at 0.8601. Intraday bias will be back on...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.77; (P) 164.10; (R1) 164.72; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 65.33. On the upside, firm break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend towards 169.96 key resistance next. On the downside,...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.00; (P) 191.31; (R1) 191.95; More….. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 193.51./ On the upside, break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. On the downside,...
Will German Industry Continue to Look Weak
In focus today Today, we look out for German industrial production data for February, which will give more information on the state of the German industry that is still very weak. The first round of the central wage settlement in Norway is now underway. The framework...
US Money Markets Increasingly Push a First Cut by Fed Further into Time
Markets Friday’s March payrolls were strong across the board. Employment topped all estimates by growing 303k, wage growth was solid and the unemployment rate eased back to 3.8% despite an uptick in the participation rate. The first Fed governors commenting after the...
Precious Metals Shine as Global Markets Await Central Bank Decisions and Data
As Asian session unfolded, the forex markets have been relatively quiet. Precious metals, on the other hand, are making headlines with Gold soaring above new record high above 2350 mark and Silver also rallies significantly. Nikkei is having a notable rebound even...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: The Dollar Weakness Puzzle What transpired with the EUR/USD pair last week? It behaved as expected on Monday, 01 April. However, starting from Tuesday, the situation deviated. Let’s delve into the details. On the first day of April, data on business activity...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s up trend extended to 0.9847 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidation first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9709 support holds. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD dipped to 1.6412 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.6412 and sustained trading below 1.6439 support will argue that whole rebound from 1.6127 has completed, and turn near term outlook...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9094 last week but retreated again. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out, but outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8884 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 0.9094...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD rebounded strongly to 1.2682 last week but retreated since then. Yet, there was no follow through selling. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2517/38 support zone will suggest that rise from 1.2036 has...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY dipped to 150.80 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 150.80 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 149.56). On the upside, however, sustained break of...
Inflation Fears Resurface as Commodities Spike, Thwarting Central Bank Easing Hopes
Global financial markets are bracing for potential upheaval as geopolitical strains drive gold to new record while oil prices surge. This surge, alongside the rally in metals like Copper, ignites concerns over an inflation comeback. Such inflationary pressures,...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD rebounded strongly to 1.0875 last week but retreated since then. Yet there was no follow through selling. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the downside, decisive break of 1.0694/0723 support zone will resume whole fall from 1.1138. On the...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP remains bounded in range last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 0.8529 support will argue that the corrective recovery from 0.8497 has completed at 0.8601. Intraday bias will be back on...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY rebounded after initial dip to 162.59 but failed to break through 165.33 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and more range trading could be seen. On the upside, firm break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend towards 169.96 key...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD’s rise from 1.3176 resumed by breaching 1.3613 resistance last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for channel resistance at 1.3665 first. Sustained break there would prompt upside acceleration towards 1.3897 resistance next. For now, near term...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD rebounded notably last week but upside was capped at 0.6618 and retreated. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, above 0.6618 will bring further rally to 0.6666 resistance. Break there will resume whole rebound from 0.6442. however,...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY rebounded after initial dip to 190.02 but failed to break through 193.51 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. On the upside, break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. On the downside,...
Canada’s Labour Market Sheds Jobs, Unemployment Rate Jumps
The Canadian labour market shed 2.2k positions in March, with full-time employment down -0.7k and part-time employment down -1.6k. The unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, the highest level in more than two years, and the participation rate was...
US: Payrolls Surprise to the Upside (Again), Unemployment Rate Ticks Down to 3.8%
Non-farm employment rose by 303k in March, considerably above the consensus forecast of 213k. Job gains in the two prior months were also revised higher by a combined 22k. Private payrolls rose 232k, with the bulk of service sector gains (212k) concentrated in health...
BoC to Hold the Line on Interest Rates on Mixed Economic Data
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged for a sixth consecutive policy decision on Wednesday. We expect the wording of the policy statement to leave options open for how long it plans to leave interest rates at current levels before...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Strong Jobs Numbers Diminish Urgency for Rate Cuts
Summary United States: Strong Jobs Numbers Diminish Urgency for Rate Cuts Nonfarm payrolls expanded 303K in March, surpassing all estimates submitted to Bloomberg. The continued strength in hiring suggests less urgency for policymakers at the Federal Reserve to lower...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Don’t Bet on June
U.S. Highlights Treasury yields shot higher this week, as expectations for a June rate cut fell. The U.S. economy had another strong month of hiring in March – adding 303k jobs – while the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8%. Seven voting FOMC members were out...
Summary 4/8 – 4/12
Monday, Apr 8, 2024 Tuesday, Apr 9, 2024 Wednesday, Apr 10, 2024 Thursday, Apr 11, 2024 Friday, Apr 12, 2024 The post Summary 4/8 – 4/12 appeared first on Action Forex.
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.06; (P) 151.41; (R1) 151.71; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral as it recovered after dipping to 150.80. On the downside, break of 150.80 will resume the fall to 55 D EMA (now at 149.56). On the upside, however, sustained break of...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8989; (P) 0.9033; (R1) 0.9057; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9018) will bring deeper pullback. But downside should be contained by 0.8884 resistance...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2624; (P) 1.2654; (R1) 1.2673; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the downside for 1.2517/38 support zone. Decisive break there will suggest that rise from 1.2036 has completed at 1.2892 already, and turn near term outlook bearish....
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0821; (P) 1.0849; (R1) 1.0866; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD is back on the downside with break of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0814). Deeper fall would be seen to retest 1.0694/0723 support zone On the upside, break of 1.0875 will resume the rebound from...
Strong NFP Could Deepen Correction in Stocks & Support Dollar
The monthly jobs report has enough potential for the market to set the trend for the coming weeks. However, there is also a risk that the extensive list of indicators, from employment change and unemployment rate to the pace of wage growth, will feed both the dove and...
Weekly Focus – Decent Data Over Easter Dampen Rate Cut Expectations
Positive data surprises especially in the US have continued to mostly drive interest rates higher and the USD stronger over the last two weeks. Americans increased their consumption by 0.4% in February and reduced their savings rate to its lowest level since December...
ECB Preview – An Intention to Cut
We expect the key takeaway from next week’s ECB meeting will be an affirmation of the prevailing ECB narrative, of the ECB on route to deliver a rate cut in June. While this meeting may be considered an interim meeting, and lead to limited market reaction, we expect...
Week Ahead – ECB Decision and US Inflation to Fuel FX Volatility
Central bank decisions in Eurozone, Canada, and New Zealand Highlight will be the ECB – likely to signal a rate cut in June In US, the dollar will be driven by inflation stats and Fed minutes ECB meeting – Nearly time to cut The Eurozone economy has gone through a...
RBNZ May Start Laying Groundwork for a Rate Cut
A dovish shift seems to be underway at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Technical recession and falling inflation may pave way for 2024 rate cut Is a dovish hold on the cards at Wednesday’s meeting (02:00 GMT)? Weaker economy has been good news for inflation New...
Why is Gold Defying Gravity?
Gold stays in rally mode, even when dollar and yields rise Central banks and geopolitics among the main drivers Chinese demand and inflation hedging add extra support Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s gold! Gold entered a flying mode at the beginning of March,...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Today’s countdown towards the March payrolls fortunately wasn’t in vain. Job gains printed at a stellar 303k, surging past the 214k consensus, the 232k whisper number and the 290k high-end of analyst estimates. The two-month revision brought an additional 22k...
NFP Fuels Dollar Surge, Canadian Jobs Drag Loonie
Dollar rises broadly in early US session in response to surprisingly strong non-farm payroll data. Dollar’s ascent is notably pronounced the Canadian Dollar, which simultaneously grapples with its own disappointing employment figures. But against others, the overall...
Canada’s employment falls -2.2k, unemployment rate jumps to 6.1%
Canada’s employment decreased -2.2k in March, much worse than expectation of 34.5k increase. Unemployment rate jumped from 5.8% to 6.1%, above expectation of 5.9%. Labor force participation rate was unchanged at 65.3%. Average hourly wages rose 5.1% yoy, up from prior...
EURUSD Trims Earlier Gains as Clock Ticks Down to NFP
EURUSD pulls back from two-week high Technical bias is not bearish yet EURUSD gave up some ground on Thursday after a sharp rally from a one-and-a-half-month low of 1.0723 to a two-week high of 1.0875. The US nonfarm payrolls report is on the agenda today and...
Japanese Yen Jumpy Ahead of US Payrolls
The Japanese yen showed a bit of strength earlier but has pared these gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 15141, up 0.04% All eyes on US nonfarm payrolls The markets are bracing for a sharp drop in US nonfarm payrolls for March. Job growth hit...
USD/JPY: Trades Within Extended Narrow Range Ahead of Key US Labor Data
USDJPY remains within a two-week range and consolidating just under multi-year peaks at 151.90/152.00 zone (tops of Oct 2022 / Nov 2023 / March 2024). Extended sideways mode (the pair is on track to end the second consecutive week in a tight Doji candle) reflects...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.82; (P) 191.54; (R1) 192.05; More….. GBP/JPY retreated after brief rebound and intraday bias remains is turned neutral again. . For now, further rally is expected as long as 190.02 support holds, in case of retreat. Break of 193.51 will resume...
USDCAD Ticks Higher Within Ascending Channel
USDCAD bounces off 200-day SMA MACD and RSI are still weak USDCAD is moving slightly higher following the rebound off the simple moving averages (SMAs), remaining within a short-term ascending channel. Technically, the MACD oscillator is holding beneath its trigger...
Eurozone retail sales falls -0.5% mom in Feb, EU down -0.4% mom
Eurozone retail sales volume fell -0.5% mom in February, worse than expectation of -0.3% mom. Volume of retail trade decreased for food, drinks, tobacco by -0.4% mom, non-food products (except automotive fuel) by -0.2% mom, automotive fuel in specialised stores by...
AUD Takes a Pause After Rally
After three days of significant gains, the Australian dollar is retreating against its American counterpart, with the AUD/USD pair falling to 0.6573. The US dollar has rebounded after Federal Reserve officials expressed doubts about an immediate monetary policy...
GBPJPY Trades Lower Ahead of Key Market Events
GBPJPY is in the red again today, not far from its recent high It has dropped below the January 2, 2024 ascending trendline Momentum indicators are in waiting mode for the next key market events GBPJPY is trading lower again today as the market is preparing for...
BoJ Ueda’s Rate Hike Musings Propel Yen, Dollar Regains Ground on Risk Aversion
Japanese Yen rebounded broadly in Asian session today, shot up by comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda regarding the conditions for future interest rate hikes. Ueda’s discussion, while not immediately setting the stage for rate increases, could be taken as a sign to...
EUR/USD Extends Gains as Euro Services PMIs Improve
The euro is on a bit of a roll and has pushed slightly higher on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0857, up 0.19%. The euro is up for a third straight day and has climbed 0.8% since Monday. Eurozone and German services PMIs accelerate Business...
AUD/USD: Strong Recovery Cracks Pivotal Barriers at 0.6600 Zone
AUDUSD rallies for the third straight day, lifted by weaker US dollar and downbeat US services PMI data (released on Wednesday). Bulls cracked pivotal 0.6600 resistance zone (double-Fibo/100DMA/round-figure), trading at these levels for the first time since Mar 21....
BTCUSD Pauses Pullback But Still Under Pressure
BTCUSD halts its retreat and recoups some losses But momentum indicators remain tilted to the downside BTCUSD (Bitcoin) experienced a strong pullback following its repeated inability to conquer the 71,750 hurdle. Although the price seems to be finding its footing in...
(ECB) Monetary policy accounts – Action Forex
Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 6-7 March 2024 4 April 2024 1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options Financial market...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0788; (P) 1.0812; (R1) 1.0861; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 1.0723 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.0694. Further rally would be seen to 1.0941/0980 resistance zone. On the...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2592; (P) 1.2624; (R1) 1.2685; More… Immediate focus is now on 1.2667 resistance. Firm break there will suggest that fall from 1.2892 has completed at 1.2538. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.2802 resistance next. On the...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9005; (P) 0.9050; (R1) 0.9074; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidation below 0.9094. On the downside, break of 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9018) will bring deeper pullback. But downside should be contained by 0.8884 resistance...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.44; (P) 151.70; (R1) 151.96; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 151.02 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets What a difference a revision makes… So often overlooked final figures of monthly (EMU) PMI broke headlines today. The euro area economy returned to growth for the first time since May 2023 after an upwardly adjusted composite PMI (50.3 from 49.9). Further...
Swiss Franc Dips as Swiss Inflation Falls
The Swiss franc is lower on Thursday. Early in the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9050, up 0.24%. It has been a bumpy year for the Swiss franc, which is down 7.7% against the US dollar and is trading at its lowest level since November. Switzerland’s...
EUR/USD Surges Following Powell’s Remarks on Interest Rates
The EUR/USD pair moved upward to 1.0844 on Thursday, marking an unexpected shift following a period of strong US dollar performance. This change in dynamics can be attributed to investors’ positive response to comments made by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell...
CHF Renewed Its Decline on Weak Inflation
Weak Swiss inflation renewed the downward momentum of the franc, which is losing over 0.5% against the euro, sending EURCHF to highs last seen in May 2023. The Swiss Consumer Price Index was virtually unchanged for March, with annual inflation slowing to just 1.0% –...
Gold Too Hot – Action Forex
Overnight, the gold price briefly exceeded $2300, recording another round level, not counting an update of the all-time high. This is an occasion to assess gold’s prospects, which are becoming a little less unambiguous. Touching the level of $2300 marked the...
Swiss Franc Plummets on CPI Data Which Fuels Expectations of Further SNB Easing
Swiss Franc faced broad selling pressure in European session, driven by CPI lower than CPI data. Inflation in Switzerland slowed to its lowest since September 2021 at 1.0%, and remained within the SNB’s target range for the tenth consecutive month. This development...
ECB March meeting accounts: Consensus against immediate rate cut, eyes on June for Data
ECB’s March meeting accounts unveiled a unified stance among Governing Council members against discussing rate cuts at that time, citing it as “premature.” However, the narrative within the ECB is evolving, with increasing acknowledgment that “the case for considering...
USDJPY Hovers Beneath 152 Ceiling as Bulls Refuse to Give Up
USDJPY remains stuck within 151-152 range Neutral trend looks safe for now But strong support keeps bullish forces alive USDJPY has been gradually inching higher after dropping near the floor of the sideway range at the end of March to briefly touch 151.01. Prices...
Gold Rally Turns Golden After Another Record
Gold unlocks fresh all-time high Bullish wave could stabilize, but perhaps temporarily Gold has been in an uninterrupted record rally over the past week, ticking to a new high of 2,304 before losing some steam early on Thursday. While investors continue to debate the...
GBP/USD: Slight Bullish Bias Above 200-DMA But Thin Daily Cloud Still Significant Obstacle
Cable extends recovery from 1.2540 double bottom (Apr 1 / 2 lows) and pressuring significant barrier at 1.2674 (daily cloud top / Fibo 38.2% of 1.2893/1.2539), as bulls regained traction after a false break below pivotal 200DMA support (1.2586). Near-term action is...
WTI Futures Surge to a 5-month High
WTI futures in a steady advance since early December Posted a fresh 5-month peak before paring some gains Oscillators point to overbought conditions WTI oil futures (May delivery) have been in a slow but constant recovery from their December bottom of 67.97, posting a...
AUDUSD Continues the Bounce Off 0.6475 Mark
AUDUSD holds within trading range Prices rise above SMAs RSI indicates more gains AUDUSD is surging after the rebound off the 0.6475 support level, surpassing the simple moving averages (SMAs) and extending its move towards the 0.6633 barrier, which is acting as the...
Eurozone PMI services finalized at 51.5, gradually finding its footing
Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 51.5 in March, up from February’s 50.2, a 9-month high. PMI Composite was finalized at 50.3, up from prior month’s 49.2, a 10-month high. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said the service sector is...
UK PMI Services finalized at 53.1, inflation pressures persist
UK PMI Services was finalized at 53.1 in March, down from February’s 53.8. PMI Composite was finalized at 52.8, down from prior month’s 53.0. Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, “The solid growth rate achieved in March reinforces...
Fed Powell and Soft Data Dampen Dollar, While Commodity Boom Propels Aussie
Dollar was sold off overnight after weaker than expected ISM Services data, and the weakness persisted following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell downplayed the significance of recent robust labor and inflation figures, suggesting them as fluctuations in...
Gold Hits Record High; Silver Peaks on Fed Rate Cut Speculation
Gold prices have soared to an all-time high of 2288.00 USD per troy ounce, while silver reached its highest in two years, driven by speculation surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. This surge followed comments from two Fed officials, Mary Daly of the...
USD/JPY Analysis: Calm Before the Storm?
The USD/JPY chart today shows that the rate has stabilized at 152 yen per US dollar. But can we say that there is calm in the market? Hardly. First, it is important to note that in 2023 there was a sharp reversal of trend around the 152.00 level due to intervention by...
Start of Correction, Or Support Already in Play?
Market picture Crypto market capitalisation is down 1% in 24 hours but has seen a cautious rise from a low of $2.43 trillion to $2.51 trillion since the start of the day on Wednesday. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has rolled back to 71 (“Greed”) after over a...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.41; (P) 151.61; (R1) 151.75; More… USD/JPY is staying in tight range below 151.96 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 151.02 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9050; (P) 0.9071; (R1) 0.9100; More…. USD/CHF’s rally is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise is in progress for 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9005 support is needed to indicate short term...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2552; (P) 1.2565; (R1) 1.2592; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidations continue above 1.2538. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2667 resistance holds, in case of recovery. Below 1.2538 will target 1.2517...
US ISM services falls to 51.4, prices down sharply to 53.4
US ISM Services PMI fell from 52.6 to 51.4 in March, below expectation of 52.8. Business activity/production ticked up from 57.2 to 57.4. New orders fell from 56.1 to 54.4. Employment rose slightly from 48.0 to 48.5. Prices fell sharply from 58.6 to 53.4. ISM said:...
Will NFP Report Take June Off the Rate-Cut Map?
Investors have second thoughts about a Fed rate cut in June Dollar benefits from latest market repricing Spotlight turns to the NFP data on Friday at 12:30 GMT Data and Fed rhetoric weigh on Fed rate cut bets At its latest gathering, the Fed appeared more dovish than...
Preview of RBNZ: Nothing to See Here
We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR at 5.5% at its April policy review. We think the RBNZ will remain comfortable with the forward outlook communicated in the February Monetary Policy Statement. GDP growth was slightly weaker than expected – but the impact is very...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets: EMU Flash March CPI ‘eased’ slightly more than expected from 2.6% Y/Y to 2.4% Y/Y. Core inflation (ex-energy) dropped from 3.1% to 2.9%, the first sub 3% reading since February 2022. Food price inflation slowed further from 3.9% to 2.7%. Energy inflation was...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0736; (P) 1.0758; (R1) 1.0790; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.0723. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0834 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery. Below 1.0723 will bring retest...
Fed’s Bostic eyes first rate cut in Q4, citing sluggish inflation decline
In a CNBC interview today, Atlanta Fed President suggested that rate cuts could be on the horizon by the end of 2024, contingent on the economy’s performance. Bostic outlined a scenario where “continued robustness in GDP, unemployment, and a slow decline of inflation...
Markets Unmoved by Eurozone CPI and US ADP Reports, Await Further Cues
The forex markets showed rather muted response to the latest batch of economic data released today. Euro has continued its near-term recovery, unaffected by Eurozone’s lower than expected CPI flash data coming. This lack of response likely stems from the understanding...
US ADP jobs rises 184k, pay growth heating up
US ADP private employment grew 184k in March, above expectation of 150k. By sector, goods-producing jobs increased 42k while service-providing jobs increased 142k. By establishment size, small companies added 16k jobs, medium companies added 93k, large companies added...
Silver Exits Long-Term Range – Action Forex
Silver’s future prospects turn brighter after reaching a two-year peak A retreat fueled by profit-taking is a risk in the short term Silver advanced to a two-year high of 26.54 on Wednesday, finally breaking the wide consolidation phase that started in May 2023. The...
EUR/USD Drifting as Eurozone Inflation Drops
The euro is showing little movement on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0777, up 0.05%. Eurozone inflation ticks lower Inflation in the eurozone continues to decline. March CPI eased to 2.4% y/y, down from 2.6% in February and below of the...
XAU/USD: Healthy Correction Likely to Precede Fresh Push Higher
Gold edges lower from new record high ($2288) in early Wednesday, as bulls show signs of fatigue after advancing over 5% in a steep acceleration in past six days. Although the metal resumed the uptrend in early April, after an impressive 9.3% rally in March, remaining...
Gold Price XAU/USD Sets Another All-Time High
The XAU/USD gold chart today indicates that the price of the metal has exceeded USD 2,250 per ounce. Causes: → Geopolitical tensions. Military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East do not subside, the threat of terrorist attacks is growing, and new hot spots may...
EUR/USD Starts Recovery, USD/CHF Could Extend Gains
EUR/USD is attempting a recovery wave from the 1.0725 zone. USD/CHF climbed higher above 0.9070 and might extend gains in the near term. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today The Euro declined toward 1.0725 before it started a recovery wave...
Eurozone CPI slows to 2.4% in Mar, core down to 2.9%, below expectations
Eurozone headline CPI slowed from 2.6% yoy to 2.4% yoy in March, below expectation of 2.5% yoy. CPI core (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) slowed from 3.1% yoy to 2.9% yoy, below expectation of 3.0% yoy. Looking at the main components services is expected to...
NZDUSD Halts Decline at 23.6% Fibonacci
NZDUSD declines sharply within descending channel Drops below both 50- and 200-day SMAs to a 4-month low Oscillators remain deep in their negative territories NZDUSD has been in an aggressive downtrend since its double rejection at the 0.6217 level in early March....
Dollar Sees Mild Retreat Ahead of ISM Services, Gold Extends Record Run
Dollar retreated mildly following comments from two FOMC members, including a known hawkish figure, reiterating expectations for three interest rate cuts within the year. Despite this, the retreat remains subdued as there is no guarantee yet for a June cut. Fed’s...
WTI Oil: Brightening Demand Outlook Continues to Inflate the Price
WTI oil price continues to trend higher and hit five-month high on Tuesday, probing above $85.00 barrier for the first time since late October. The last bull-leg extends into fourth consecutive day, underpinned by brightening demand outlook on firmer than expected...
Pound Stabilizes as Shop Inflation Drops
The British pound is steady on Tuesday after starting the week with losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2563, up 0.09%. On Monday, the pound fell 0.57% and dropped as low as 1.2539, its lowest level since February 14. UK shop inflation eases to...
Consolidation Not Going According to Plan
Market picture The crypto market lost 4% in 24 hours, falling to a capitalisation of $2.53 trillion. Bitcoin (-3.7%), Ethereum (-4.5%) and BNB (-3.5%) are all down by the same amount. Solana (-6.4%) and Doge (-7.9%) are lagging the market, not to mention the...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9014; (P) 0.9036; (R1) 0.9066; More…. USD/CHF’s rally resumed by breaking through 0.9070 temporary top and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rally is in progress for 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9005 support...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.33; (P) 151.55; (R1) 151.88; More… Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 150.25 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.35)....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2513; (P) 1.2578; (R1) 1.2617; More… GBP/USD’s decline is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.2517 structural support. Decisive break there will suggest that rise from 1.2036 has completed at 1.2892 already, and turn...
EURUSD Gets Set to Go
The slowdown in German inflation is fuelling hopes that the ECB will ease policy in the coming months. German CPI rose 0.4% m/m, weaker than the 0.5% expected. Annual inflation slowed from 2.5% in February to 2.2% in March, the lowest since May 2021. Germany’s reading...
Australian Central Bank Meeting Removes Rate Hike Option – Minutes
The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes of the March meeting indicated that there was no mention of raising interest rates. This points to a less hawkish stance but the Australian dollar is unchanged following the release of the minutes. Reserve Bank drops reference to...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Core bonds dropped with a continued rise in oil prices ($88.5/b) serving as a common factor. German Bunds underperform US Treasuries. That’s partially a catch-up move as European markets missed out on US action yesterday (Easter Monday). German yields add...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0716; (P) 1.0758; (R1) 1.0784; More… EUR/USD’s decline is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.0694 support. Decisive break there will resume the whole decline from 1.1138 and target 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694...
Swiss Franc Falls Amid Surging Treasury Yields and Manufacturing Optimism
Currency markets shifted their attention towards the sell-off in Swiss Franc today, a reaction to the substantial rally observed in European and US treasury yields. With the 10-year yields in Germany and UK climbing back above 2.4% and towards 4.1% respectively, and...
Dollar Strengthens Following Positive Manufacturing Data
The EUR/USD pair has dipped to its lowest since 15 February this year following the release of encouraging data regarding the US manufacturing sector’s activity on Monday. This improvement, the first since September 2022, has bolstered the US dollar’s position. The...
Oil Clears Way for Growth Above $90
Oil prices have been hitting five-month highs, and every trading session has been rising since 27 March. The price of a barrel of WTI reached $84.6 at the start of the day on Tuesday before retreating slightly by midday in Europe. To some extent, oil is managing to...
ECB consumer survey reveals 1-yr inflation expectations drop to 3.1%, a two-year low
ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for February indicated continuing decline in consumers’ median inflation perceptions over the past 12 months, marking a fifth consecutive month of decrease, settling at 5.5% down from 6.0% in January. Furthermore, median expectations...
Elliott Wave Analysis on USD/JPY: Correction Within Uptrend
JPY came down across the board, even though BOJ decided to end its ultra-loose policy, by raising rates for 10bp in March. USDJPY is coming higher anyhow, with price breaking some very important trendline connected from 2023 highs. It can even represent part of a...
EURJPY Pulls Back Towards Crucial Trendline
EURJPY retraces lower following a 16-year peak Tests ascending trendline drawn from July 2023 Oscillators suggest weakening momentum EURJPY had been in a steady advance since December 2023, peaking at a fresh 16-year high of 165.34 on March 20. Since then, the pair...
Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 46.1, two largest cylinders out of action
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 46.1 in March, down from February’s 46.5. Disparities across member countries continued, with Greece achieving a 25-month high at 56.9, Italy at 12-month high at 50.4, and Spain dipped slightly to 5.1.4. Meanwhile, Germany...
UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 50.3, signaling first growth since July 2022
UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 50.3 in March, climbing from February’s 47.5 to mark a 20-month high. This development represents the sector’s first move above the critical 50.0 threshold since July 2022, indicating a tentative resurgence in manufacturing...
EUR/USD outlook: Bears Eye 2024 low
The Euro fell to new multi-week low early Tuesday, weighed by firm dollar and recent dovish comments from ECB policymakers, who see four rate cuts in 2024. Monday’s 0.4% drop and close below 1.0762 (Fibo 76.4% of 1.0695/1.0981 upleg), adds to bearish near-term outlook...
GBPUSD Starts April With a Drop
GBPUSD moves sharply down on the first trading day of April 2024 neutral trajectory valid above 1.2500 GBPUSD plummeted to a six-week low of 1.2538 as investors returned from the Easter holiday break, re-establishing the downward pattern from the March high. Given the...
FX option expiries for 2 April 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0735 level. With the dollar in the driver's seat, the expiries may not matter too much as the level isn't technically significant. At best, it could limit price action before...
Dollar Strength Persists as Markets Await Fed Speakers
Dollar stayed broadly firm in Asian session today, after rallying on robust manufacturing data and significant rebound in treasury yields overnight. The spotlight now shifts to upcoming comments from Fed officials, including Governor Michelle Bowman and New York Fed...
USD/CAD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3528; (P) 1.3545; (R1) 1.3560; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3612 resistance will resume whole rise from 1.3176 towards 1.3897 resistance. On the downside, firm break...
April seasonals: Soggy weather, sizzling markets
March seasonals provided a good clue for what might happen in the month. For starters, March is the second-strongest month for USD/JPY and that was tailwind as the pair rose to the 152.00 level after an early-month dip on BOJ tightening reports.In March I wrote:The...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2608; (P) 1.2626; (R1) 1.2643; More… GBP/USD’s fall from 1.2892 resumed by breaking 1.2574 support. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2517 structural support first. Decisive break there will suggest that rise from 1.2036 has completed at...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0772; (P) 1.0789; (R1) 1.0810; More… EUR/USD’s fall from 1.0980 continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Next target is 1.0694 support. Decisive break there will resume the whole decline from 1.1138 and target 100% projection of...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9007; (P) 0.9018; (R1) 0.9029; More…. USD/CHF is staying below 0.9070 resistance despite current recovery. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Nevertheless, further rally is expected as long as 0.8964 support holds. Firm break of 0.9070 will...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.18; (P) 151.34; (R1) 151.51; More… USD/JPY is staying below 151.96 resistance despite current recovery. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 150.25 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the...
Wedge Issue: What’s Driving the Gap Between CPI and PCE Inflation?
Summary Progress in reining in inflation is further along by some measures relative to others. The gap between the two most prominent measures of U.S. inflation—the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and PCE deflator—is unusually wide at present. At 3.8%, the year-over-year...
Bitcoin Remains Within Extended Range
Bitcoin edged lower on Monday but remains within the longer range which extends into seventh consecutive day. Near-term action remains sideways and looking for stronger direction signals, as daily studies are mixed (fading positive momentum / MA’s in bullish setup),...
Post-Holiday Forex Awakening: Dollar Strengthens on Surprising ISM Manufacturing Expansion
The forex markets roared back to life from holiday lull in early US session, Dollar surges broadly as buoyed by unexpectedly strong ISM manufacturing data. This report marks a pivotal shift for the sector, which has transitioned back into expansion after 16 months of...
US ISM manufacturing rises to 50.3, first expansion in 16 mth, prices surge
US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 47.8 to 50.3 in March, above expectation of 48.5. The sector is now back in expectation for the first time since September 2022. Looking at some details, new orders rose from 49.2 to 51.4. Production jumped from 48.4 to 54.6....
AUD/USD Daily Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6502; (P) 0.6517; (R1) 0.6530; More…. AUD/USD recovered after dipping to 0.6484 and intraday bias is neutral at this point. Risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.6633 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6484 support will indicate that larger...
Japanese Yen Yawns After Mixed Business Confidence Report
The Japanese yen is coming off a quiet week and is showing little movement on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.38, up 0.03%. Business confidence among major manufacturers falls The Bank of Japan’s Tankan business confidence survey was a mix...
Pound’s Pause Before Dive – Action Forex
The British Pound has spent the past week in a tight 500 pip range but has mostly traded around the 1.2620 level. Attempts by the bears to send the GBPUSD into a downtrend like the EURUSD have so far failed, with the pair finding buyers on dips towards the 200-day...
Bitcoin Sets the Stage for Growth
Market picture The crypto market capitalisation fell to $2.63 trillion. – the bottom of the range for the week. The top coins have moved without momentum over the past 24 hours, with losses for BTC (-0.9%), Ethereum (-1.9%) and BNB (-3%), but gains for Solana (1.4%),...
USD/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9007; (P) 0.9018; (R1) 0.9029; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. Some more consolidations could be seen, but further rally is expected as long as 0.8964 support holds. Firm break of 0.9070 will resume larger rise from...
XAU/USD: Gold Hits New Record High on Growing Hopes for Fed Rate Cut in June
Gold hit new record high ($2265) in early Monday’s trading, as markets reopened after Good Friday’s pause. The metal starts the month in firm bullish mode, after softer US inflation data boosted expectations for Fed’s first rate cut in June (bets currently show 69%...
GBP/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2608; (P) 1.2626; (R1) 1.2643; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Risk stays on the downside as long as 1.2666 support turned resistance. Below 1.2574 will resume the fall from 1.2892 to 1.2517 structural...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.18; (P) 151.34; (R1) 151.51; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues below 151.96. On the downside, break of 150.25 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0772; (P) 1.0789; (R1) 1.0810; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.0980 should target 1.0694 support first. Break there will resume the whole decline from 1.1138 and target 100% projection of 1.1138...
Gold Flies to Consecutive Record Highs
Gold advances sharply in the past few sessions Extends its streak of new all-time highs Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions Gold has experienced a massive surge following its profound break above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in the beginning of...
EURUSD’s Recent Bearish Tendency to be Tested this Week
EURUSD trades sideways in anticipation of this week’s key market events It remains below the various simple moving averages employed Momentum indicators support the current bearish move EURUSD is moving sideways today amidst a quieter start of the week due to the...
Nikkei Dips on New Fiscal Year, Gold Soars to New Highs, Currencies Unmoved
Activity in global financial markets remain generally subdued due to the extended Easter holiday in many regions. Nevertheless, Japan’s markets kicked off the new fiscal year on a tumultuous note, with Nikkei index having a sharp sell-off. Analysts have largely...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: The First of Many Ticks Higher in the Longer-Run Median Dot
Summary United States: Steady, As She Goes This week’s economic data largely reinforced existing economic growth patterns. Consumer momentum remains largely intact, inflation continues to inch back down, albeit at a slower pace, and rate-sensitive sectors stayed in a...
Summary 4/1 – 4/5
Monday, Apr 1, 2024 Tuesday, Apr 2, 2024 Wednesday, Apr 3, 2024 Thursday, Apr 4, 2024 Friday, Apr 5, 2024 The post Summary 4/1 – 4/5 appeared first on Action Forex.
Currency Pairs To Trade In April
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you...
USD/JPY Could Consolidate Before Fresh Increase
Key Highlights USD/JPY climbed higher above the 150.50 and 151.20 resistance levels. A major bullish trend line is forming with support at 150.60 on the 4-hour chart. EUR/USD could gain bearish momentum below 1.0820. Crude oil prices are accelerating above the $82.50...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Fed in No Rush to Cut Interest Rates
U.S. Highlights New home sales fell in February, but remain fairly flat over the past three months. New home prices, meanwhile, continued to head lower last month, and are now down 13% from their 2022 peak. U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 was revised up...
ECB’s Villeroy champions agile gradualism over wait-and-see in rate cut strategy
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in a speech overnight that risks to inflation are now “balanced”, but risks to growth are “on the downside”. There, “the time has come to take out an insurance against this second risk by beginning rate...
US PCE price index rises to 2.5% yoy in Feb, core PCE down to 2.8% yoy
US personal income rose 0.3% mom or USD 66.5B in February, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Personal spending rose 0.8% mom or USD 145.5B, above expectation of 0.8% mom. PCE price index rose 0.3% mom below expectation of of 0.4% mom. Core PCE price index (excluding food...
S&P500’s Soft Growth Could Last for Months
The US equity market continued its upward trend, with the S&P500 rising 10.8% in the first quarter, exceeding the historical average gain for a full calendar year. We are even more impressed by the low volatility of the index since the end of January. The...
Week Ahead – Rate Cut Hopes Rest on US Jobs Report and Eurozone Flash CPI
Nonfarm payrolls report and European flash CPI to shape rate cut bets ISM PMIs to also be important for Fed expectations and US dollar Canadian employment and Chinese PMIs also on the agenda Fed hawks rear their ugly heads The March round of policy meetings reinforced...
EUR/USD Falls to Five-Week Low
The euro has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0782, down 0.05%. It has been a bumpy road for the euro in 2024, as the currency has declined 2.3% so far this year. Earlier today, EUR/USD dropped as low as 1.0768, its lowest level...
GBP/USD: Cable Moves Within Extended Range Ahead of Key US Data
Cable remains in extended sideways mode, with a narrow range on holiday-thinned markets on Good Friday. Near-term action is ranging between 200DMA (1.2588) and thin daily cloud (spanned between 1.2634 and 1.2663), with predominantly bearish daily studies keeping the...
Dollar Edges Lower as PCE Inflation Data Aligns with Expectations, Gold Hits Record
Dollar dips mildly in the wake of the latest PCE inflation data, which largely met market expectations without delivering any significant surprises. Notably, headline inflation saw a slight uptick, primarily driven by rising energy costs. Core inflation saw a slight...
Bitcoin Fails to Surpass $71K this Week
Market picture The cryptocurrency market is up 0.3% in 24 hours to $2.66 trillion, but it’s not due to reduced volatility. Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading close to the previous day’s levels. Among the top coins, Doge (+7.4%) and BNB (+3.8%) are the best performers....
Japanese Yen Steady as Tokyo Core CPI Ticks Lower
The Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week and is unchanged in the European session at 151.17. Tokyo Core CPI inches lower to 2.4% Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, eased to 2.4% y/y in March, a drop lower than the 2.5% gain in February and matching...
Gold’s Price Reaches New Heights Amid Global Market Uncertainty
On Friday, the price of gold reached an unprecedented peak, soaring above 2,230 USD. The global capital market experienced low activity due to the observance of Good Friday in many Catholic countries, leading to abrupt movements by investors. The surge in gold prices...
USDCAD Pauses Four-Day Slide – Action Forex
USDCAD pauses bearish correction near support area Technical signals are weak amid holiday-thinned liquidity conditions All eyes turn to the US core PCE inflation due at 12:30 GMT USDCAD was trading with soft positive momentum around 1.3547 during Friday’s early...
Tokyo inflation moderates, supporting BoJ’s measured approach
Japan Tokyo CPI core (ex-food) slowed slightly from 2.5% yoy to 2.4% yoy in March, matched expectations. Headline CPI ticked up from 2.5% yoy to 2.6% yoy. CPI core-core (ex-food and energy) also slowed from 3.1% yoy to 2.9% yoy. Service price gains slowed to from 2.1%...
S&P 500 (SPX) Looking to Complete 5 Waves Impulse
Short Term Elliott Wave view in S&P 500 (SPX) suggests cycle from 1.6.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 1.6.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 4931.09 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 4845.15. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 5187.78 as the 30...
Record-breaking Gold targets 2250, poised for push toward 2500
Gold surges to new record high in quiet holiday trading today. The precious metal continues to be supported by expectation of global central bank easing ahead. SNB has already started rate cutting earlier this month. ECB is widely expected to follow in Spring,...
GBPJPY Weakens Near 191.00 – Action Forex
GBPJPY remains above the rising trend line But technical oscillators are losing steam as well GBPJPY has been posting some flat days over the last four sessions, holding near the short-term uptrend line. The market is developing near the 191.00 round number with the...
Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Gain Bullish Momentum
Gold price started a steady increase above the $2,200 resistance level. Crude oil prices are gaining bullish momentum and might rise toward $85.00. Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today Gold price started a decent increase from the $2,158 zone...
Strong Growth is Good News If Inflation Remains Low
The US printed a better-than-expected growth of 3.4%. Sales grew more than expected, the GDP price index fell but fell slower than expected to 1.7%, corporate profits jumped nearly 4% in the Q3 versus less than 1% printed a quarter earlier and consumer sentiment...
EUR/USD Analysis: Price Today Has Set Its Minimum Since the Beginning of March
As the EUR/USD chart shows at the start of the European session today, the exchange rate has dropped below EUR 1.08 per US dollar. Tuesday’s news contributed to this. According to Nasdaq.com, on March 26, 2024, The Conference Board published a report for March,...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0813; (P) 1.0826; (R1) 1.0841; More… EUR/USD’s fall from 1.0980 resumed by breaking through temporary low. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.0694 support first. Break there will resume the whole decline from 1.1138 and target 100%...
Canada’s Economy Boosted in January, Strong Gain Expected for February
The Canadian economy kicked off the year on a positive note, growing by 0.6% on a month-on-month (m/m) basis in January. This print comes in above Statistics Canada’s advanced guidance and market expectations for a 0.4% m/m gain. The flash estimate for February points...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2617; (P) 1.2629; (R1) 1.2653; More… Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Risk stays on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2667) holds. Below 1.2574 will resume the fall from 1.2892 to 1.2517 structural...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.91; (P) 151.44; (R1) 151.85; More… Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 150.25 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.01)....
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets “There’s still no rush”, Fed governor Waller’s sequel to February’s “What’s the rush”, resonated through Asian and early European dealings. The Fed’s minority leader wants to see at least a couple of months of additional evidence that inflation is sustainably...
Bitcoin Doesn’t Fit the Downtrend Now
Market picture The crypto market capitalisation rose 1.4% in 24 hours to $2.66 trillion. Buyers stepped in the night before when Bitcoin touched $68.5K and pushed the price up to $70.7K at the start of active trading in Europe. Bitcoin was rocked on Wednesday, first...
Canada’s Unemployment Rate Will Continue to Tick Higher Despite Job Gains
Next Friday’s employment data is expected to show job growth remained in positive territory (+25,000 from February), but again it will not be enough to keep up with surging growth in labour supply. Therefore, we forecast another tick higher in the unemployment rate to...
BTCUSD Advances Towards All-Time Highs
BTCUSD pauses pullback and rotates higher Conquers 70,000 but encounters strong resistance Momentum indicators are tilted to the upside BTCUSD (Bitcoin) had been undergoing a strong pullback from its all-time highs, dropping to as low as 60,760 last week. However, the...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9019; (P) 0.9046; (R1) 0.9064; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations could be seen. But further rally is expected as long as 0.8964 support holds. Firm break of 0.9070 will resume larger...
GBP Consolidates Amid Concerns Over Economic Growth and Wage Trends
The GBP/USD pair is currently consolidating, hovering around the 1.2631 mark. This consolidation phase follows recent reports highlighting a slowdown in the expansion plans of British businesses for workforce and wage growth, raising concerns about future economic...
Dollar’s Momentary Rise Fades Amid Market Caution
Dollar initially gained momentum in European session and breaks through near term resistance against Euro. However, the greenback then saw a swift reversal as the market transitioned into US session. Despite a stronger final reading for US Q4 GDP, the impact on the...
Canada’s GDP expands 0.6% mom in Jan, above exp 0.4% mom
Canada’s GDP grew 0.6% mom in January, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Services-producing industries increased 0.7% mom. Goods-producing industries were up 0.2% mom. Overall, there was broad-based growth with 18 of 20 sectors increasing. Advance information indicates...
US initial jobless claims falls to 210k, vs exp 211k
US initial jobless claims fell -2k to 210k in the week ending March 23, slightly below expectation of 211k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -750 to 211k. Continuing claims rose 24k to 1819k in the week ending March 16. Four-week moving average of...
EUR/USD: Bears Probe Through Key Support Zone
The Euro holds in red for the third consecutive day and accelerates lower in early Thursday, cracking pivotal supports at 1.0800/1.0790 zone (former higher base / Fibo 61.8% of 1.0695/1.0981 / base of thick daily Ichimoku cloud). Technical picture is firmly bearish on...
Australian Dollar Slides After Weak Retail Sales Report
The Australian dollar is down sharply and has fallen to a three-week low. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6491, down 0.66%. Australia’s retail sales rise 0.3% Australia’s retail sales slipped in February to 0.3% m/m, a sharp drop from the 1.1% gain in...
Nasdaq 100: Deteriorating Market Breadth Does Not Bode Well for the Bulls
The price actions of Nasdaq 100 have reached the lower limit of a major resistance zone of 18,435/620. Heightened over-concentration risk from Nvidia as its current year-to-date returns of 87% contributed to 55% of Nasdaq 100’s year-to-date return of 10.50% as of 27...
WTI Oil Futures in Fierce Battle With 50.0% Fibo
WTI futures post an almost 5-month peak But fail to advance further and hover around 50.0% Fibo Oscillators suggest that the bulls retain the upper hand WTI oil futures (May delivery) have been in a steady recovery from their December bottom of 67.97, posting an...
ECB’s Panetta: Conditions for monetary easing are materializing
In a speech delivered in Rome, ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta acknowledged the impact of restrictive policies on demand, attributing these measures, alongside the falling energy prices, as key factors in the “rapid fall in inflation”. More importantly,...
AUDUSD Gets Bearish Vibes – Action Forex
AUDUSD violates key support zone Bearish pressures could persist in short-term AUDUSD’s short-term upward pattern is under threat as it faces the risk of closing below the October support trendline at 0.6500, following another rejection near its exponential moving...
A First Fed Rate Cut in June Seems Highly Premature
Markets German Bunds outperformed US Treasuries yesterday on milder than expected Spanish CPI and soft comments from Italian ECB board member Cipollone. He suggested that the ECB might be able to reduce rates swiftly as the to give the economy a chance to recover as...
Swiss KOF falls to 101.5, yet outlook remains positive
Swiss KOF Economic Barometer fell from 102.0 to 101.5 in March, below expectation of 102.3. Despite this minor setback, the barometer continues to hover above its long-term average, indicating a positive outlook for the Swiss economy in the coming months. The decline...
FX option expiries for 28 March 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The ones for EUR/USD are layered at 1.0815 through to 1.0850. And they should act similarly to the ones from yesterday around the same region as well. All else being equal, the expiries will help to...
Nikkei Takes Hit from Japan’s Vigorous Yen Verbal Intervention, But Yen’s Gain Lacks Strength
Nikkei tumbled sharply in Asian session today, largely in response to Yen’s rebound late yesterday, which followed strong verbal interventions by Japanese officials aimed at curbing the currency’s recent weakness. Additionally, profit-taking activities could be...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.94; (P) 164.17; (R1) 164.39; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidations below 165.33. Downside of current retreat should be contained by 55 4H EMA (now at 163.57) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 165.33 will...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.09; (P) 191.39; (R1) 191.67; More….. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. More consolidations could be seen but outlook will stay bullish as long as 187.94 support holds. On the upside, break of 193.51 will resume larger up...
Dollar Pushes Higher as S&P 500 Set for 5th Monthly Gain
Yesterday was a slow day in terms of data and information flow and a strong day in terms of meme trading and speculation, as Donald Trump’s Truth Social flew with its own wings for the first time yesterday, following last week’s successful merger with DWAC. Trump’s...
Australian Dollar Slides to Three-Week Low
The AUD/USD pair is declining, reaching 0.6539 on Wednesday. The Australian dollar is heading back to a three-week low following the release of softer-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) data from Australia. For February 2024, inflation in Australia stood at...
NIKKEI-225 Analysis Indicates Possibility of Correction from Historically High Levels
On March 21, the value of the Japanese stock index reached a historical maximum, exceeding the level of 41,100 points. This was facilitated by: → Weak yen supporting exporters. It increases the value of profits earned abroad for a large number of companies that sell...
Crypto Market: A Breather After the Climb
Market picture The capitalisation has stabilised around the $2.63 trillion level, losing 1.7% in 24 hours, but very close to where it was at the end of the day on Monday. Bitcoin is down 1.2%, Ethereum lost 2.3%, BNB sank 3%, and Solana is minus 4%. On the surface,...
Eyes on the fix | Forexlive
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.13; (P) 151.35; (R1) 151.64; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral gain as it retreated after edging higher to 151.96. On the downside, break of 150.25 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9004; (P) 0.9024; (R1) 0.9060; More…. USD/CHF’s rally continues today and met 100% projection projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9062 already. Intraday bias remains on the upside at this point. Sustained trading above 0.9062 will...
USD/CHF: Rises to the Highest in Nearly Five Months
The USDCHF continues to trend higher within the broader bull-channel and hit new multi-week high (the highest since Nov 2) on Wednesday. Larger bulls accelerated after surprise rate cut by SNB last week, which increased pressure on Swiss franc and continues to weigh,...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2611; (P) 1.2639; (R1) 1.2657; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook as consolidation continues above 1.2574. Intraday bias stays neutral and risk remains on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2675) holds. Below 1.2574 will resume the fall...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0816; (P) 1.0840; (R1) 1.0856; More… Outlook in EUR/USD remains unchanged as consolidations continue above 1.0801. Intraday bias remains neutral and But risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0855) holds. Below 1.0801 will...
Japan’s Financial Leaders Unite in Defense of the Yen, Sparking Rebound
Japanese Yen staged in a notable rebound in European session, triggered by heightened market vigilance towards market interventions. This reaction comes in the wake of a significant meeting between Japan’s Ministry of Finance, Financial Services Agency, and Bank of...
USD/JPY Slides to Lowest Level Since 1990
The Japanese yen has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.17, down 0.26%. Yen falls to 34-year low, will Tokyo intervene? The Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week for the first time since 2007. The move marked a...
Eurozone economic sentiment rises to 96.3 in Mar, above exp 96.1
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose from 95.5 to 96.3 in March, above expectation of 96.1. Employment Expectations Indicator rose from 102.5 to 102.6. Economic Uncertainty Indicator fell from 20.3 to 19.2. Eurozone industry confidence rose from -9.4 to -8.8....
Gold: Suspicious Storm of $2200
Gold breached the $2200 mark for the second time in history on Tuesday before retreating to $2182 in early US trading. Cryptocurrencies are trading in the same direction as gold today, but silver, platinum and copper are failing to make similar gains, causing some...
NZDUSD Returns to Bearish Trend
NZDUSD extends bearish trend to a four-month low Resistance near 0.6000; support seen at 0.5980 Following two weeks of losses, NZDUSD is now aiming to find a firm footing around 0.6000, having dropped to a four-month low of 0.5984. The latest bearish wave has...
Further Yen Losses Avoided as Fin Min Suzuki Warned
Markets Quite a long series of US data (including consumer confidence, house price data, durable goods orders and regional business sentiment) yesterday failed to provide any clear directional guidance for US and broader markets trading. US and German yields lost 1-2...
GBP/USD Dives While USD/CAD Gains Bullish Pace
GBP/USD declined below the 1.2665 support zone. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for more gains above the 1.3610 resistance. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2800 resistance zone. There was...
Will EURJPY Re-Test 16-Year High Soon?
EURJPY rebounds off 163.30, holding above rising trend line Bullish bias in longer-term timeframes But MACD and RSI loses momentum in near term EURJPY found support at the 163.30 barrier and is moving again towards the 16-year high of 165.36 that was recorded on March...
Are USDJPY Bulls Ready for a New Record High?
USDJPY trades higher again, testing the October 21, 2022 high Last week’s events have renewed the bullish pressure as intervention risk increases Momentum indicators support the bullish move; all eyes are on the stochastic oscillator USDJPY is continuing its journey...
Verbal Intervention Heighten as Yen Stumbles, Kiwi Falls on Bleak Economic Projections
Japanese Yen breached its recent low against the broadly strong Dollar in Asian session today, but the selloff halted just before reaching 152 mark. The momentum of Yen’s decline appears to be cushioned by Japan’s heightened verbal intervention. Finance Minister...
FX option expiries for 27 March 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD layered between 1.0800 to 1.0840. Those are likely to keep price action stickier on the day, before rolling off. And in case there is any dollar softness creeping in, the larger...
GBP/USD: Bulls Gaining Traction After Double Rejection at 200-DMA
Cable remains constructive in early Tuesday’s trading, after it was lifted by better than expected UK data on Monday and fading expectations for BOE rate cut in May. Fresh recovery was also underpinned by a double downside rejection at 200DMA (1.2591) on Fri/Mon...
USD/JPY Price Analysis: Consolidation ahead of US News
This morning, news about inflation in Japan was published. It did not bring any surprises — inflation in Japan is gradually weakening as expected. Core CPI in annual terms: actual = 2.3%, forecast = 2.5%, a month ago = 2.6%, a year ago = 3.0%. We also note that the...
Ethereum ETHUSD Buying The Dips After Elliott Wave Double Three
Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a look at the Elliott Wave charts charts of Ethereum ETHUSD published in members area of the website. As our members know ETHUSD has recently made pull back that has unfolded as Elliott Wave Double...
BoE’s Mann signals market misalignment on rate cut expectations
BoE MPC member Catherine Mann cast doubts on the financial market’s anticipation of interest rate cuts in the near term, asserting that such expectations might be overly ambitious. Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Mann directly addressed the discrepancy, stating, “They’re...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8977; (P) 0.8986; (R1) 0.9004; More…. USD/CHF’s rally resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 0.8332 should target 100% projection projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9062. Firm...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.13; (P) 151.35; (R1) 151.64; More… Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged at consolidation from 151.82 is still extending. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 150.25 support holds. On the upside,...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2602; (P) 1.2627; (R1) 1.2663; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral, as consolidations from 1.2574 continues. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.6905) holds. Below 1.2574 will resume the fall from 1.2892 to...
USD/JPY springs to the highs of the day
We're rolling into the 4 pm hour in London and the fix. There are no headlines and nothing is happening in fixed income.it's pretty clear there are some fixing flows driving the move. In general, the trade on fixing moves is to fade them at the top of the hour. This...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0812; (P) 1.0827; (R1) 1.0852; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for the moment, with consolidations from 1.0801 extending. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0862) holds. Below 1.0801 will resume the fall...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The eco calendar in Europe and the US this week is backloaded with the publication of key (national) EMU inflation data starting tomorrow and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure (PCE deflator) scheduled for release on Friday. Some less high profile data and...
WTI Oil Outlook: Takes a Breather after Monday’s 1.40% Advance
WTI oil price is holding within a tight range on Tuesday and consolidating Monday’s 1.40% advance, sidelined by mixed fundamentals. Supply concerns following recent attacks on Russian oil installation, which may cause longer disruptions from one of world’s top oil...
US consumer confidence down to 104.7, more concerned about political environment
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence ticked down from downwardly revised 104.8 to 104.7 in March, below expectation of 107.2. Present Situation Index rose from 147.6 to 151.0. Expectations Index fell from 76.3 to 73.8. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The...
Bitcoin tops $71K, about to retest highs
Market picture Crypto market capitalisation regained another 5% in 24 hours, peaking earlier in the day at $2.7 trillion against a recent peak of 2.7 in mid-March and around $3 trillion at the end of 2021. The recovery is faster than before the decline, promising...
Swiss Franc Declines Persist as DAX Hits New Heights, Aussie Awaits CPI
Risk-on sentiment is pressuring e Swiss Franc and, to a lesser extent, Yen and Dollar today. DAX soared to new record highs, undeterred by the latest weak German consumer sentiment data, while CAC and FTSE are also marking gains. Similarly, the CAC and FTSE indices...
US durable goods orders rises 1.4% mom in Feb, above exp 1.3% mom
US durable goods orders rose 1.4% mom to USD 277.9B in February, above expectation of 1.3% mom. Ex-transport orders rose 0.5% mom to USD 185.6B above expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 2.2% mom to USD 263.8B, above expectation of 1.3% mom. Transportation...
XAU/USD: Gold Retests $2200 Barrier on Renewed Safe-haven Demand
Gold price jumped on Tuesday and retested psychological $2200 barrier, inflated by weaker dollar on improved sentiment about Fed rate cuts and persisting geopolitical risks. Market awaits release of US inflation data, due later this week, which could bring fresh hints...
Australian Dollar Edges Higher, CPI Next
The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6557, up 0.26%. On today’s data calendar, the US will release two tier-1 events. Durable goods orders are expected to rebound with a 1.1% gain in February, after...
EURCHF Rallies Towards 8-Month High
EURCHF looks strongly bullish this year Technical oscillators confirm upside tendency EURCHF has added almost 6% since the beginning of the year, recording a new eight-month high of 0.9786. The pair is creating a steep upward tendency with no notable bearish...
Bitcoin Perfect Reaction Higher From Blue Box Area
In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of Bitcoin ticker symbol: $BTCUSD. We presented to members at the elliottwave-forecast. In which, the rally from the 11 September 2023 low is unfolding as an impulse...
Fed Speakers Covered Full Spectrum of Intra-FOMC Views
Markets In a more or less synchronic, technically inspired move US, EMU and UK bond markets reversed most of Friday’s rally. Eco data were few and mostly second tier. Marginally softer-than-expected US new homes sales (-0,3% M/M) had little impact on trading. Fed...
German GfK consumer sentiment edges up to -27.4, uncertainty overshadowing facts
In a modest uptick, Germany’s GfK Consumer Sentiment Index for April has slightly improved to -27.4 from March’s -28.8, marginally above expectation of -27.8. March’s data revealed an improvement in economic expectations and income outlooks, with the former rising to...
CHF/JPY Technical: On the Brink of a Potential Major Bearish Breakdown (CHF Weakness)
The surprise rate cut by SNB has reinforced the bearish momentum of CHF/JPY. CHF has weakened across the board against the G-10 currencies; it is the weakest against the EUR. Watch the 169.00 key short-term resistance on CHF/JPY with key support coming in at 166.55....
GBPUSD Bounces Off 200-Day SMA
GBPUSD finds support at uptrend line But short-term outlook remains neutral MACD and RSI are mixed GBPUSD rebounded off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which coincides with the 1.2595 support level and the medium-term ascending trend line. The market has...
FX option expiries for 26 March 10am New York cut
There are a couple of large ones to be wary of for the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered at the 1.0860-70 level. That coincides with some technical layers that could keep a lid on price action in the session ahead. Of note, the 100...
Swiss Franc Dips in Muted Trade, Bitcoin Eyes Uptrend Resumption
Swiss Franc traded broadly lower in Asian session today, amidst a backdrop of general market inactivity with all other major pairs and crosses staying inside Monday’s range. Still, it remains to be seen whether the Franc’s sell-off could extend beyond last week’s...
Bitcoin Price Recovered over the Weekend, But Market Anxiety Remains
From the point of view of technical analysis of BTC/USD, on Friday evening the price of Bitcoin was near the lower boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue). This was alarming as it indicated that the market action could result in a weekly bearish candle...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2558; (P) 1.2617; (R1) 1.2658; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with current recovery and some consolidations would be seen first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2700) holds. Below 1.2574 will...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0784; (P) 1.0826; (R1) 1.0850; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current recovery and some consolidations would be seen. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0868) holds. Below 1.0801 will resume...
Gold’s Prospects Look Promising
Gold prices have stabilized around $2170.00 per troy ounce after two days of decline. Investors are taking a pause ahead of an important US inflation indicator report due this week, which could provide insights into the future direction of the Federal Reserve’s...
USD/JPY Drifting at Start of Week
The Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.25, down 0.13%. Yen can’t find its footing Last week’s Bank of Japan was dramatic as the central bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2007....
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The yuan’s sharp rebound this morning triggered some attention, if only because other news was so limited today. USD/CNY shot up last Friday on signals that Chinese authorities loosened their grip on the 7.2 handle it defended for several months. Clearly they...
Fed’s Goolsbee forecasts three rate cuts amid rising real interest rate restrictiveness
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told Yahoo Finance that he aligned with the “median” projections regarding the monetary easing path forward, as anticipates three rate cuts within the year. In this “murky period” of economic recovery as Goolsbee described, Fed...
Fed’s Cook: Risks of meeting dual manage more balanced
Fed Governor Lisa Cook pointed out in a speech that risks associated with meeting the dual mandate goals of inflation and employment are “moving into better balance”. She explained that prematurely easing monetary policy might “allow above-target inflation to become...
USDJPY- Bulls Hold Grip for Further Gains after Consolidation
Bulls are taking a breather and consolidating just under key barriers at 150.90/94 (2023/22 tops) after strong rally in past two weeks. USDJPY was inflated by a wide gap between US and Japan’s interest rates, with no positive impact from BoJ’s rate hike last week, as...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8953; (P) 0.8987; (R1) 0.9009; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidations below 0.9019 temporary top first. Downside of retreat should be contained above 0.8838 support to bring rebound. Break of 0.9019 will resume larger...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.02; (P) 151.44; (R1) 151.88; More… USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 151.92 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 150.25 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key resistance will...
Subdued Currency Movements, Cautious Stocks, Range Trading Gold
Mild risk-off mood is seen in the global financial markets today, starting from the the noticeable retreat in Japan’s Nikkei, then the marginal declines across European stock indices, alongside soft US futures. However, this sense of caution has not significantly...
Gold Pulls Back from All-Time High
Gold moves horizontally within 2,145-2,195 MACD and RSI lose steam Gold prices have been moving lower over the last couple of days after the bullish spike towards the all-time high of 2,222.68 that was posted in the preceding week. The market has been developing...
Australian Dollar Stabilizes, Consumer Sentiment Next
The Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains, after sliding 0.86% on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6530, up 0.24%. PBoC move sends Aussie sharply lower The Australian dollar ended the week with sharp losses after China’s...
ECB’s Lane confident that wages growth is on track to normalize
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, in a podcast published today, conveyed a sense of confidence among policymakers regarding wage growth trends. Lane articulated that policymakers are “confident” that wages growth is “on track” to return to normal. “If this assessment...
Crypto Market Comes to Life
Market picture The crypto market cap rose 4.5% over 24 hours to $2.56 trillion, roughly where it was a week ago, with an active rally over the last three days. Bitcoin is up 4.7%, and Ethereum is up 4.3% in 24 hours. Their momentum has encouraged even more robust...
Threat is the Only Way to Stop Yen Bleeding
The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decided to hike the interest rates for the first time after 17 years but the yen has been weakening since then, on fear that this would be a ‘one and done’ cut. As a result, not only that the yen bulls are nowhere to be found but some traders...
No Major Data Releases Today – ECB President Lagarde and Fed’s Bostic and Cook Will Speak
In focus today The week starts out without any major data releases today. ECB president Lagarde and Fed’s Bostic and Cook will speak today. Later this week we look out for local inflation prints from Spain, France, and Italy that will give clues of where we can expect...
Chinese and Japanese Officials Started Offensive to Prevent Further Currency Losses
Markets The path of least resistance on yields markets on Friday still was south. Investors after Wednesday’s Fed meeting/press conference clearly saw the glass half empty, rather than half full. The dots suggested otherwise with both growth and inflation forecasts...
EURUSD Dives Towards 1.0800 – Action Forex
EURUSD breaks SMAs to the downside Immediate support at rising trend line MACD and RSI suggest more negative movements EURUSD is showing some strong selling interest over the last couple of days, following the pullback from the 1.0940 resistance level. The price is...
Hang Seng Index: Potential Currency War May Kick Start Another Bearish Leg
A less dovish Fed with a surprise cut by SNB has triggered a bout of US dollar strength since last Thursday, 21 March. China’s central bank, PBoC responded with a lower-than-expected daily fixing on the onshore yuan (CNY) last Friday, 22 March which led the offshore...
FX option expiries for 25 March 10am New York cut
There aren't any significant expiries in play for the day ahead. As such, trading sentiment will continue to revolve around the mix of the technicals, risk mood, and broader market sentiment. So far today, there isn't much to really work with as most markets remain...
Light Week Ahead with Dollar Rally Awaiting PCE Inflation Insights
The forex markets display a calm demeanor in the Asian session, with most major pairs and crosses gyrating in very tight ranges. Australian Dollar finds modest support from the state orchestrated rebound in Chinese Yuan. However, this lift hasn’t translated into clear...
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Switzerland Strengthens the Dollar The key event of the past week was undoubtedly the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve on March 20. As expected, the American Central Bank unanimously decided to maintain the key interest...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s rally accelerated to as high as 0.9786 last week. But a temporary top should be formed after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9252 at 0.9773. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation in range of 1.6439/6742 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.6439 support holds. On the upside, above 1.6677 will target 1.6742...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s break of 0.8577 resistance and 55 D EMA (now at 0.8562) last week suggest that rebound from 0.8497 is at least correcting the fall from 0.8764. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 161.8% projection of 0.8497 to 0.8577 from 0.8503 at 0.8632. For,...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and surged to 165.33. But as a temporary top was formed with subsequent retreat, initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations. Downside should be contained by 55 4H EMA (now at 163.23) to bring rebound. On the...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and surged to 193.51, but retreated notably since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more corrective trading. Nevertheless, outlook will stay bullish as long as 187.94 support holds. On the upside, break of 193.51...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
Much volatility was seen in USD/CAD last week. But after all, near term outlook remains bullish with 1.3419 support intact. Initial focus is now on 1.3612 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 1.3176 towards 1.3897 resistance. On the downside,...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s rally resumed last week and surged to 0.9019. Initial bias stays on the upside for 100% projection projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9062. On the downside, below 0.8922 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations....
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s fall from 1.2892 accelerated lower last week, despite interim rebound. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.2517 support. Decisive break there will suggest that rise from 1.2036 has completed at 1.2892 already, and turn near term outlook...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s rally resumed last week and edged higher to 151.82, but turned sideway since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 150.11) holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s fall from 1.0980 continued last week and the strong break of 55 D EMA suggest that rebound from 1.0694 has completed. Initial bias stays on the downside for retesting 1.0694 first. Break there will resume the decline from 1.1138 and target 100% projection of...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s strong was rebound last week was capped below 0.6666 resistance, and followed by equally steep decline. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, with focus on 0.6503 support. Decisive break there will indicate that larger fall from 0.6870 is ready to...
Dollar Triumphs Following a Turbulent Week of Central Bank Shocks
The past week in the currency markets was a dramatic whirlwind, marked by pivotal moves from major central banks across the globe. From BoJ’s unexpected hike to SNB’s surprise cut, from Fed’s hawkish leaning projections to BoE’s dovish voting, they collectively...
Weekly Focus – Historical Central Bank Week: A Hike and A Cut in G10
The past week will go down in history as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiked the policy rate for the first time in 17 years while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its rate, becoming the first G10 central bank to do so in the current cycle. The BoJ decided to set the...
Canada’s January GDP to Edge Higher on Recovery from Quebec Strike
Canadian gross domestic product for January is expected to show modest growth on Thursday, while employment data will highlight whether weakness in job vacancies and wage growth still persists ahead of the Easter long weekend. We expect the Canadian economy to edge up...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Sitting, Waiting, Wishing
Summary United States: Residential Tailwind Set to Continue as Monetary Policy Becomes Less Restrictive This week’s economic data indicate that the U.S. economy is still expanding at a solid pace with the housing sector continuing to provide a tailwind. During...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Counting Cuts
U.S. Highlights Markets let out a sigh of relief as the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections reaffirmed expectations for three rate cuts this year. The Fed’s forecast for the economy is interesting, as it implies above trend growth in each of the next three years –...
Summary 3/25 – 3/29
Monday, Mar 25, 2024 Tuesday, Mar 26, 2024 Wednesday, Mar 27, 2024 Thursday, Mar 28, 2024 Friday, Mar 29, 2024 The post Summary 3/25 – 3/29 appeared first on Action Forex.
GBP/USD Faces Sharp Decline Amid BoE’s Monetary Policy Stance
As of Friday, the GBP/USD pair hovered around 1.2642, following a substantial decline. The Bank of England (BoE) has yet to find reasons to lower the interest rate, indicating intentions to maintain high rates for an extended period to support the necessary inflation...
Rising Dollar Spooked Bitcoin, But Not the Entire Crypto Market
Market picture The cryptocurrency market closed lower on Thursday, but little changed from the $2.53 trillion market cap over 24 hours. However, the internal dynamics are mixed. Bitcoin loses 1.5% and retreats to $66K, while Ethereum hovers around $3500 (-0.25%), BNB...
Pound Drops to 1-Month Low After Flat Retail Sales
The British pound has extended its losses on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2600, down 0.45%. Earlier, the pound fell as low as 1.2584, its lowest level since March 20. UK retail sales unchanged in February UK retail sales were flat in...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0830; (P) 1.0886; (R1) 1.0917; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. Current development argues that corrective recovery from 1.0694 has completed at 1.0980 already. Deeper fall is expected to retest 1.0694 next....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2605; (P) 1.2704; (R1) 1.2757; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for 1.2517 support Decisive break there will suggest that rise from 1.2036 has completed at 1.2892 already, and turn near term outlook bearish On the upside,...
USD/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8878; (P) 0.8936; (R1) 0.9033; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 0.8332 is in progress for 100% projection projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9062. On the downside, below 0.8922...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Wednesday’s Fed dots & Powell’s press conference brought a diffuse message, hampering an unequivocal market reaction. Higher/above neutral growth, a material uplift in especially this year’s inflation forecast and the unemployment rate holding below NAIRU...
Weekly Focus – Historical Central Bank Week: A Hike and A Cut in G10
The past week will go down in history as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiked the policy rate for the first time in 17 years while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its rate, becoming the first G10 central bank to do so in the current cycle. The BoJ decided to set the...
Week Ahead – Markets Quiet Down After Central Bank Frenzy
Dollar recovers after Fed selloff, turns to PCE inflation Yen falls despite rate increase, testing three-decade lows Quarter-end flows could disturb the waters in a quiet week Dollar stages recovery after Fed It was an action-packed week for FX traders, with five...
Will PCE Data Revive Concerns About Sticky US Inflation?
Fed continues to see three rate cuts for 2024 Investors add back to the June cut probability Focus shifts to next week’s core PCE index The data comes out on Friday at 12:30 GMT Fed appears more dovish than expected The Fed appeared more dovish than expected at its...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.69; (P) 151.22; (R1) 152.18; More… USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 151.82 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 149.97) holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key resistance...
Canadian Dollar Dips as Retail Sales Disappoint
The Canadian dollar has extended its losses on Friday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3569 in the North American session, up 0.29%. Canada’s retail sales slip in January Canada’s retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in January, revised from the earlier estimate of -0.4% and well off...
Yen Rebounds Amid Short-Covering, Dollar Rally Eases
Japanese Yen rebounds broadly today, likely driven by traders taking profits on short positions after a significant week of sell-off following BoJ’s rate hike. This stabilization comes amidst speculations stirred by Japan’s latest inflation data, raising the prospect...
Canada’s retail sales falls -0.3% mom in Jan, led by motor vehicle and parts dealers
Canada’s retail value fell -0.3% mom to CAD 67.0B in January, smaller than expectation of -0.4% mom decline. Sales were down in three of nine subsectors and were led by decreases at motor vehicle and parts dealers (-2.4% mom) Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline...
Gold’s Retreat Not Yet a Reversal
The Fed’s comments led to a 3% rise in gold, but the dollar’s recovery in the second half of Thursday reduced this gain to just 0.5%. Technically, the outlook is unclear, but fundamentally, things are still on the side of the bulls. In early trading on Thursday, gold...
ECB’s Nagel: June cut increasingly likely, but no automatism afterwards
In a webcast today, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel indicated that the chance is increasing for a first rate cut “before the summer break” in August. However, he cautioned that afterwards, ECB will maintain a data-dependent approach and policy loosening...
XAU/USD: Gold Eases from New Record High
Gold price eases further on Friday, extending pullback from new record high $2222 (posted on Thursday) after a strong upside rejection on probe above psychological $2200 barrier. The yellow metal came under increased pressure from stronger dollar after Fed kept the...
GBPJPY Plummets from 8½-Year High
GBPJPY may rest near 190.00 round number MACD and RSI confirm bearish retracement Broader outlook looks strongly bullish GBPJPY is retreating after the pullback off the eight-and-a-half-year high of 193.55 and is moving towards the short-term ascending trend line....
German Ifo business climate rises to 87.8, glimpses light on the horizon
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 87.8 in March, from the previous 85.7, surpassing anticipated 86.2. This uplift is mirrored in both Current Assessment Index, which advanced from 86.9 to 88.1 against expectations of 86.8. Expectations Index, which climbed...
Is There Stronger Bullish Trend for USDCAD?
USDCAD switches back to gains, surpasses SMAs Technical signals cannot warrant a bullish channel breakout USDCAD successfully recovered from a flash drop to 1.3454 and closed Thursday’s session above the 50- and 200-day SMAs, maintaining its position within the...
AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signal More Losses
AUD/USD declined below the 0.6575 and 0.6550 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might trade below the 0.6000 zone. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6600 level...
UK retail sales volumes flat in Feb, sales value down -0.1% mom
In February 2024, UK’s retail sales volumes remained unchanged month-over-month, a performance that’s better than expectation of -0.3% mom decline. Meanwhile, sales value slightly dipped by a -0.1% mom. A broader examination reveals -0.4% decline in sales volumes over...
FX option expiries for 22 March 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of for the day ahead, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD, which are layered from 1.0825 to 1.0850. Those expiries are likely to keep price action more compact in the session ahead, as traders also contest the key...
Dollar Strikes Back as Investors Reevaluate Global Central Bank Paths
Dollar mounted a significant comeback overnight, demonstrating resilience amidst surge in risk-on sentiment that propelled the three major US stock indexes to record highs. The greenback continued to extend gains in Asian session, surpassing pre-FOMC highs against...
GBPUSD Trims FOMC Rally Amid a Busy Day
GBPUSD corrects lower after hitting resistance at 1.2800 Technical signals weaken, but key support levels are underneath GBPUSD rose exponentially in the aftermath of the FOMC policy meeting, but the ascending line drawn from the December 2023 low interrupted the...
Crypto Finished Its Pullback Thanks to Fed
Market picture The Fed’s comments returned risk appetite to global markets, immediately bringing buyers back to cryptocurrencies. In 24 hours, total market capitalisation rose 7.7% to $2.55 trillion. Bitcoin is showing roughly the same amplitude of growth, but...
GBPUSD Elliott Wave : Buying The Dips At The Blue Box Area
Hello fellow traders. In this technical article, we’re going to take a look into the Elliott Wave charts of GBPUSD, exclusively presented in the members’ area of our website. As our members know GBPUSD has recently made pull back that made clear 3 waves down from the...
USDJPY Reaction to Fed and BoJ Decisions
Fed and BoJ decisions have some impact on USDJPY Daily chart shows some weakness for the next few sessions But weekly chart looks strongly bullish FOMC decision drives dollar lower The dollar declined following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, as Federal Reserve Chair...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8846; (P) 0.8882; (R1) 0.8905; More…. USD/CHF’s rally resumed after drawing support from 55 4H EMA, and breaks through 0.8917. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 100% projection projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.71; (P) 151.26; (R1) 151.80; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidations continue below 151.82 temporary top. Further rise is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 149.63) holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0864; (P) 1.0894; (R1) 1.0951; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the downside at this point. Pull back from 1.0980 has possibly completed at 1.0834, after drawing support from 55 D EMA. Firm break of 1.0980 resistance will resume the...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2718; (P) 1.2753; (R1) 1.2820; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.2666 support and sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.2685) will target 1.2517 structural support next. However, break of...
Bank of England Review – Gearing Up for a June Cut
At today’s monetary policy meeting the BoE left the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% as widely expected. The BoE delivered a dovish twist to its forward guidance and general communication. This marks an important first step to an eventual cutting cycle. EUR/GBP moved...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The EMU economy came close to stabilizing in March with price pressures easing. The composite PMI recovered slightly more than hoped, from 49.2 to 49.9 (vs 49.7 consensus), matching the best (least bad) outcome since June of last year. Divergence between a...
US PMI composite falls to 52.2, unwelcome consumer price pressure in the coming months
US PMI Manufacturing rose from 52.2 to 52.5 in March, a 21-month high. PMI Services fell from 52.3 to 51.7. PMI Composite also fell from 52.5 to 52.2. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Further expansions of both...
EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9656; (P) 0.9672; (R1) 0.9703; More.. EUR/CHF surges to as high as 0.9780 today and met 61.8% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9252 at 0.9773 already. The strong break of 0.9683 resistance carries larger bullish implications. Intraday bias stays on the...
Swiss Franc Tumbles on SNB Cut; Sterling Falters as Hawks Retreat
Swiss Franc is trading as the day’s most significant loser in the wake of SNB’s surprising decision to cut interest rates. This move, along with a substantial downward revision of inflation forecasts, is seen by some economists as a strategic effort by SNB to...
BoE maintains status quo as hawks relinquish rate hike demands
BoE maintained the Bank Rate at 5.25% as widely expected. The decision was made by an 8-1 vote, with Swati Dhingra singularly advocating for a reduction again. Notably, previous hawks Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann adjusted their positions, refraining from...
(BOE) Bank rate maintained at 5.25%
Monetary Policy Summary, March 2024 The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 20 March 2024, the MPC voted by a...
USD/CHF Analysis: SNB Decision Breaks Multi-month Trend
According to Reuters, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, the head of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Thomas Jordan told the Swiss press that the appreciation of the franc creates problems for exporters. Thus, indicating intentions to...
Eurozone PMI composite ticks up to 49.9, price development not enough to alter ECB’s course
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing from 46.5 to 45.7 in March, below expectation of 47.0. PMI services, on the other hand rose from 50.2 to 51.5, above expectation of 50.5 a 9-month high. PMI Composite ticked up from 49.2 to 49.9, also a 9-month high. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief...
EUR/USD Soars Following Fed’s Decision on Interest Rate Cuts
The EUR/USD pair soared to a weekly high of 1.0933 on Thursday following the Federal Reserve System’s announcement of three interest rate cuts planned for 2024. These adjustments will reduce borrowing costs by 75 basis points. The interest rate remains at 5.5%...
UK PMI manufacturing hits 20-month high, services ease slightly
UK PMI Manufacturing rose from 47.5 to 49.9 in March, above expectation of 47.9, a 20-month high. PMI Services fell slightly from 53.8 to 53.4, below expectation of 53.8. PMI Composite ticked down from 53.0 to 52.9. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at...
AUDUSD Advances Sharply in the FOMC Aftermath
AUDUSD was in a steady retreat since early March But finds feet and reclaims both SMAs after dovish FOMC Momentum indicators improve drastically AUDUSD had been losing ground since the beginning of March, dropping below its descending 50- and 200-day simple moving...
SNB cuts interest rate, sharply slashes inflation forecasts
In a surprising move, SNB announced a -25bps cut in its policy rate, bringing it down to 1.50%. This decision also introduced a tiered system for the remuneration of banks’ sight deposits held at SNB. Deposits up to a specified threshold will earn interest at the...
(SNB) Swiss National Bank Eases Monetary Policy and Lowers SNB Policy Rate to 1.5%
The Swiss National Bank is lowering the SNB policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%. The change applies from tomorrow, 22 March 2024. Banks’ sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold, and at 1.0% above...
FX option expiries for 21 March 10am New York cut
There are ones to watch out for on the day, as highlighted in bold.They are for EUR/USD and layered around the 1.0900-20 level. Alongside a softer dollar after the Fed yesterday, the expiries should help to keep the pair supported in the session ahead. However, do...
Dollar Wanes as Fed Sticks to Three Cuts Projection; Aussie Jumps; BoE and SNB Next
Dollar took a nosedive overnight as investors were apparently relieved that Fed is still on track to cut interest rates three times this year. The odds for a June cut as indicated by fed fund futures also jumped back to above 70%. The positive sentiment shoot major US...
Gold Technical: A Potential Minor Corrective Pull-back in Play as FOMC Looms
Gold (XAU/USD) has traded in a tight range of 2% in the past two weeks after it printed a fresh all-time high of US$2,195 on 8 March. The biggest risk event for today will be the latest Fed FOMC’s dot plot projection on the trajectory of its Fed funds rate; a...
Fed still sees three cuts this year, but slower easing thereafter
Fed left interest rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as widely expected. The new economic projections and dot plots are clearly more hawkish than December’s. Yet, Dollar dips initially after the announcement, perhaps because they’re not as hawkish as feared. In the new...
Fed Chair Powell press conference live stream
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(FED) Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8866; (P) 0.8882; (R1) 0.8898; More…. USD/CHF’s rally from 0.8332 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.8934. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.9062...
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Hits Four-Month Low
The USD/JPY pair surged to a four-month high as investors recalibrated their expectations for the Bank of Japan’s future actions. The consensus is now that the BoJ’s monetary policy will remain accommodative, even with the shift away from negative interest rates. On...
WTI Oil Price Falls on Profit Taking from New Multi-Month High
WTI oil price pulls back from new 4 ½ month high ($83.10), down 1.6% for the day so far, as traders collected profits ahead of Fed policy announcement. The oil price accelerated higher recently on fresh concerns about oil supply, following attacks on Russian refining...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The ECB and its Watchers XXIV conference and UK February CPI data provided a welcome interlude counting down to tonight’s Fed decision. ECB Lagarde basically held to the recent communication line. Moving into the dial back phase requires wage growth to slow...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.58; (P) 150.27; (R1) 151.55; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at for 151.93 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87...
Time for USDCAD to Go for a Higher High?
USDCAD rises after cooler than expected Canadian inflation A break above 1.3605 could signal uptrend continuation For the outlook to turn bearish, a dip below 1.3455 may be needed USDCAD rose yesterday after the Canadian CPI numbers came in lower than...
Will JP 225 Index Continue Its Record Rally?
JP 225 index flirts with all-time highs Short-term technical signals remain encouraging Japan’s 225 stock index (cash) is on the rise again, aiming to revive its five-month-old positive trend above the March record high of 40,564 after finding support near the 38,310...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2681; (P) 1.2708; (R1) 1.2747; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidations above 1.2666 temporary low. Deeper decline is still in favor as long as 1.2822 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0842; (P) 1.0859; (R1) 1.0884; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.0834 temporary low. Further decline is in favor as long as 1.0905 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at...
Dollar Holds Strength Ahead of Fed Dot Plot Update
Dollar stands firm as the day’s strongest currency, with the financial markets on edge for the Fed’s impending announcement. While interest rate is widely anticipated to hold steady at 5.25-5.50%, the spotlight is on the potential adjustments to Fed’s dot plot....
USD: FOMC Meeting Takes Centre Stage
Today’s FOMC meeting is the highlight of the week, and Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, discusses the USD outlook ahead of the announcement. Praefcke believes there’s low risk of the Dollar declining post-meeting due to unlikely dovish surprises, especially...
ECB’s Lagarde sets conditions for June rate cut
ECB President Christine Lagarde provided clarity in a speech on the conditions that would lead to a rate cut in June, highlighting reliance on “two important pieces of evidence” as pivotal to the central bank’s confidence on dialing back monetary restrictions. ....
Bitcoin and Ethereum Seek Support
Market picture The crypto market correction continues to deepen, although there have been some signs of stabilisation since the start of the day on Wednesday. The decline has continued for a whole week, reducing the market cap by almost 15%. The total cap was down to...
EURGBP Struggles to Surpass 23.6% Fibo
EURGBP remains in sideways channel Technical oscillators lose steam EURGBP is finding another strong obstacle to surpass within the medium-term trading range of 0.8497 to 0.8578. Specifically, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 0.8765 to 0.8497...
Fed Risks Tilted Towards Hawkish Surprise
Markets We can’t but start with the Japanese yen again. Including this morning’s price action, USD/JPY (151.57) is an inch away from the 2022 multi-decade yen lows (at 151.95). EUR/JPY (164.68) already surpassed the 2023 high to trade at the strongest level since...
USDJPY Advances in BoJ Aftermath
USDJPY storms to fresh 2024 high after BoJ’s rate hike The pair is within breathing distance from 33-year peak Momentum indicators point to overbought conditions USDJPY has been in a steady uptrend after finding its feet a tad above the 200-day simple moving average...
NZDUSD in the Red Again Ahead of Fed
NZD remains on the back foot against USD NZDUSD has finally broken below its one-year-long rectangle Momentum indicators acknowledge the current bearish move NZDUSD is recording another red candle today and it is trading below the lower boundary of the one-year-old...
Gold in a Descending Correction Mode
Gold creates bearish triangle after bullish rally MACD and RSI look weak Gold prices have been developing within a descending triangle in the 4-hour chart, after the rally towards the new all-time high of 2,195 on March 8. The price is posting a bearish correction...
FX option expiries for 20 March 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD as they are layered from 1.0810 through to 1.0910. That is going to help keep price action more muted around the current levels, with the technicals also in play. The 200-day...
Yen Selloff Intensifies, Attention Shifts to UK CPI and FOMC
Japanese Yen’s decline intensified today and it’s on the verge of breaking to new historical low against the greenback. Japan’s stock markets are on holiday today, but the strong rally in Nikkei yesterday, which surged 40k psychological mark again, was significant....
GBPUSD Retreats Towards 50-day SMA
GBPUSD generates fresh 2024 peak But declines sharply towards the 50-day SMA Momentum indicators weaken significantly GBPUSD has been stuck in a rangebound pattern since mid-November, unable to adopt a clear directional impetus. Although the pair exploded higher and...
Will GBPJPY Enter Territories Last Seen in 2015?
GBPJPY trades higher and hits resistance near 191.30 Remains in uptrend despite BoJ decision MACD and RSI detect positive momentum For the outlook to change, a dip below 187.95 may be needed GBPJPY traded higher yesterday, but hit resistance near the 191.30 barrier...
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3519; (P) 1.3536; (R1) 1.3550; More… USD/CAD’s break of 1.3605 resistance suggests that whole rise from 1.3176 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3540 from 1.3419 at 1.3644 first. Decisive break...
Canada: Inflation Surprises With a Downtick in February
Headline CPI inflation moved slightly lower in February to 2.8% year-on-year (y/y), against expectations for an uptick. Softer inflation at grocery stores was part of the story in February. Grocery price increases cooled from 3.4% y/y in January to 2.4%. This marks...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0857; (P) 1.0881; (R1) 1.0897; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remain son the downside for the moment as fall from 1.0980 is in progress. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.0856) will argue that rebound from 1.0694 has completed and bring...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2716; (P) 1.2731; (R1) 1.2745; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside as fall from 1.2892 is in progress. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.2677) will target 1.2517 structural support next. On the upside, above 1.2758 minor...
Another Downside Surprise in Canadian February CPI
Canadian CPI growth was lower than expected in February, dropping to 2.8% year-over-year from 2.9% in January (expectations were for a 3.1% reading.) The downside surprise was broad-based as core CPI ex-food and energy inflation eased further to 2.8% from 3.1% in...
Is Upside Corrective Phase in AUDCAD Over?
AUDCAD briefly breaks below upside support line Oscillators suggest that momentum is turning bearish For the outlook to brighten, a recovery above 0.8945 may be needed AUDCAD entered a sliding mode on March 12, after hitting resistance at 0.8945, slightly above the...
BoE Policy Meeting: Don’t Expect Fireworks
Bank of England to retain the same policy stance Q2 data could be more valuable for next decision making What happened last time In its February policy meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) emulated the Federal Reserve by exploring rate cuts, ultimately deciding to...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The Bank of Japan’s first rate hike since 2007 that ended an 8-year experiment with negative rates remained talk of the town today. Ironically though, the Japanese yen nor yields profited from what is nevertheless a historical shift, quite the contrary. This...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8838; (P) 0.8863; (R1) 0.8903; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Decisive break of 0.8891 resistance will confirm resumption of rally from 0.8332. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.93; (P) 149.13; (R1) 149.35; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Firm break of 150.87/89 resistance will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from...
Canadian Dollar Dives on CPI Surprise, Market Eyes Earlier BoC Rate Cut
Canadian Dollar falls sharply in early US session, triggered by an unexpected decline in Canada’s headline CPI and a more significant than anticipated slowdown in core inflation measures. This trend of disinflation is likely to reassure BoC that its efforts to curb...
Canadian CPI cools to 2.8% yoy in Feb, below expectations
Canada’s CPI decelerated in February, registering an increase of 2.8% yoy, which fell short of anticipated 3.1% yoy. This slowdown from January’s 2.9% yoy offers a glimmer of relief as inflationary pressures show signs of easing. When gasoline prices are excluded, CPI...
USD/JPY: Yen Loses Ground on Signs of Extended Fed/BoJ Rate Gap
USDJPY was sharply higher (up almost 1%) after BOJ’s major shift, though the message from the central bank was seen as dovish on signals that future policy tightening will be moderate, which will keep the big rate gap between the Fed and BoJ and favor the dollar....
Aussie Slides After RBA’s Pause
The Australian dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6507, down 0.80%. The Aussie is on a nasty slide and has declined by 1.7% since March 13. RBA removes tightening bias The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash...
ECB’s de Guindos and de Cos eye June for rate cut
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasized the bank’s expectation of having “far more data” by June, which will be crucial for evaluating the appropriateness of a rate reduction. De Guindos also noted the current market optimism for a “soft landing” and the...
German ZEW surges to 31.7 on ECB rate cut anticipation
German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose sharply from 19.9 to 31.7 in March , well above expectation of 21.0. Current Situation Index ticked up slightly from -81.7 to -80.5, below expectation of -80.0. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment rose from 25.0 to 33.5, above...
Brent Oil Prices Continue to Surge, Reaching New Peaks
Brent crude oil continues its rally, reaching peak values since early November 2023, with prices around USD 87.00 per barrel. Investor concerns over commodity supply, particularly due to tensions in several oil-producing countries, significantly influence quotes by...
Where Are the Yen Bulls?
We expected – at the start of this year – that March would bring a Fed rate cut. It brought a BoJ rate hike instead. Yes, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) scrapped its negative rate policy, raised the rates from -0.10% to 0%, ditched its YCC policy and ended the purchases of...
RIP NIRP. BoJ Ditches the World’s Last Negative Policy Rate
Markets RIP NIRP. The Bank of Japan ditched the world’s last negative policy rate this morning, raising it from -0.1% to a target range between 0% and 0.1%. The first hike since 2007 ended an 8-year experiment of sub-zero rates. It also scrapped the (soft) 1% cap on...
Swiss SECO lowers 2024 inflation forecasts sharply to 1.5%, keeps growth at 1.1%
The Swiss Federal Expert Group on Business Cycles maintained its expectation for modest GDP growth at 1.1% for 2024, with improvement to 1.7% in 2025. Uunemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 2.3% in 2024 before rising to 2.5% in 2025. Notably, inflation...
BoJ’s Historic Hike Fails to Lift Yen, RBA’s Cautious Stance Weighs on Aussie
Yen declines broadly in a classic “sell-on-news” reaction following BoJ’s landmark decision to exit its eight-year negative interest rate policy and announce its first rate hike in 17 years. Although the immediate economic impact of this move is considered minimal,...
FX option expiries for 19 March 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to really influence price action in trading today. In the case of EUR/USD, there are some slightly decent-sized ones around 1.0855-65 but I reckon it is the technicals that matter more at this point. The 100-day moving average for the...
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6542; (P) 1.6576; (R1) 1.6631; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.6606 will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.6742. Break there will resume larger rise from 1.6127. On the...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8536; (P) 0.8544; (R1) 0.8558; More… Range trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside decisive break of 0.8491/7 support zone will confirm larger down trend resumption and target 0.8464 projection level first....
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.40; (P) 161.90; (R1) 162.74; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Correction from 163.70 should have completed at 160.20. Further rally would be seen to retest 163.70 first. Decisive break there will resume larger...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.94; (P) 189.49; (R1) 190.38; More….. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Correction from 191.29 should have completed at 187.94 already. Further rise should be seen to retest 191.29 high first. Decisive break there will...
Get Ready to Rumble – Central Bank Week is Here
In focus today In the euro area, we will keep an eye on the final inflation data for February. The final HICP figures provide insights into the underlying inflation measures tracked by the ECB, while also revealing drivers behind the relatively strong core inflation...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.34; (P) 148.75; (R1) 149.47; More… USD/JPY’s rebound from 146.47 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Corrective fall from 150.87 should have completed at 146.47, after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8818; (P) 0.8836; (R1) 0.8852; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook and intraday bias stays mildly on the upside. As noted before, consolidation from 0.8884 should have completed with three waves to 0.8728. Further rally should be seen to retest...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets US Treasuries hold near last week’s sell-off lows in an uneventful trading session awaiting major central bank decisions. US yield currently trade up to 1.5 bps higher across the curve with both the US 2-yr and 10-yr yield testing the YTD highs at 4.74% and at...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2721; (P) 1.2741; (R1) 1.2755; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook as fall from 1.2892 short term top is in progress. Deeper decline would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2673). Firm break there will target .2517 structural support. For now, risk...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0873; (P) 1.0887; (R1) 1.0900; More… No change in EUR/USD and intraday bias stays on the downside. Fall from 1.0980 short term top would target 55 D EMA (now at 1.0856). Sustained break there will argue that rebound from 1.0694 has completed and...
Yen on the Brink as Markets Await BoJ
Yen’s continued weakness persists in today’s subdued market, despite growing expectations for a BoJ rate hike in the upcoming Asian session—a move anticipated to conclude its longstanding negative rates policy. Although the anticipated adjustment from -0.10% to 0.00%...
Yen Surprisingly Weakens into BoJ Decision
A week packed with central bank decisions starts on a mixed note after hotter-than-expected US inflation sent the US 2-year yield around 25bp higher over the week and the 10-year yield spiked past the 4.30% mark. Stocks resisted to higher yields for the major part of...
USD/JPY in Holding Pattern Ahead of Key BoJ Meeting
The Japanese yen is showing limited movement to start off the week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading is almost unchanged at 149.07. Will the BoJ raise rates on Tuesday? The Bank of Japan will make its rate announcement on Tuesday and there is a strong...
Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.6% in Feb, core CPI at 3.1%
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.6% yoy in February, down from 2.8% yoy in January. CPI core (excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 3.1% yoy, down from prior month’s 3.3% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual Eurozone inflation rate came...
Gold Retreats from All-Time High
Gold pulls back from its recent record peak Momentum indicators exit overbought conditions Gold experienced a massive surge following its profound break above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), posting a fresh all-time high of 2,195 on March 8. However, bullion...
USD/JPY: JPY Plummeted, Ignoring the Possibility of a More Hawkish BoJ
The price actions of the USD/JPY have reacted negatively right below the 150.70 key resistance as highlighted in our previous analysis and shed -435 pips/-2.9% to print a recent intraday low of 146.48 on 8 March. Thereafter, the USD/JPY has drifted higher to trade...
This Week is Jampacked with Central Bank Meetings
Markets Core bonds fell on each and every day last week, including on Friday. Weekly gains for US yields varied between 17.6 bps (30-y) to 27.9 bps (5-y). German rates added between 14.7 and 19.1 bps in a curve move similar to the US. Real yields accounted for the...
AUD/USD Stabilizes Amid Chinese Economic Data and US Inflation Concerns
The Australian dollar has momentarily halted its downward trajectory against the US dollar, stabilizing around the 0.6565 mark. With a lack of significant domestic data from Australia, the AUD’s movements are largely influenced by the performance of the Chinese yuan...
EURUSD Trades Sideways After Sharp DFrop
EURUSD rotates lower after its advance gets rejected Trades flat in past few sessions within the Ichimoku cloud Momentum indicators weaken but remain positive EURUSD had been in a steady recovery from its 2024 bottom of 1.0693, advancing to as high as 1.0980 on March...
BTC/USD Analysis: Bears Have Become More Active Near $70,000 Level
On February 26 (A), a strong bullish impulse started in the Bitcoin market. Its trajectory is visually described by a blue line. The price of bitcoins developed along it — this can be interpreted in such a way that market participants agreed that the value of the...
Caution Prevails as Markets Brace for Central Bank Frenzy and Economic Data
Yen softened slightly in Asian session today, influenced by a robust rebound in strong rebound in Nikkei. Meanwhile, New Zealand Dollar received a modest boost, buoyed by an upturn in the country’s services data. This was mirrored by the Australian Dollar, which,...
FX option expiries for 18 March 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 mark. The expiry is a sizable one and given the lack of appetite in markets today, it should help to play a part in limiting price action in the pair before...
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Stubborn Inflation Refuses to Back Down Market participants last week were keenly focused on inflation data from the US. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for Wednesday, 20 March, and these figures will...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF stayed in consolidation below 0.9630 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Another dip cannot be ruled out, but outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9510 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.9630 will resume...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD recovered after drawing support from 1.6450, but upside is still capped by 1.6606 minor resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.6606 will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.6742. Break there will...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP was still bounded in range of 0.8497/8577 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside decisive break of 0.8491/7 support zone will confirm larger down trend resumption and target 0.8464 projection level...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s break of 162.16 minor resistance last week suggests that correction from 163.70 has completed at 160.20. Initial bias is back on the upside for retesting 163.70 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 153.15 for 164.29 high. In case of...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s break of 189.69 minor resistance suggests that correction from 191.29 has completed at 187.94 already. Initial bias is back on the upside for retesting 191.29 high first. Decisive break there will bring larger up trend resumption. On the downside, break of...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD’s rebound from 1.3419 extended higher last week and the development suggests that corrective pullback from 1.3605 has completed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 1.3605 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume whole rally...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s strong rebound last week suggests that consolidation from 0.8884 has completed with three waves to 0.8728. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week for retesting 0.8891 resistance first. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 0.8332. Next...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s decline last week indicates short term topping at 1.2892. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 1.2673). Firm break there will bring deeper fall to 1.2517 structural support. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s strong rebound last week suggests that corrective fall from 150.87 has completed at 146.47, after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 150.87/89 key resistance zone....
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s fall last week indicates short term topping at 1.0980. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 1.0853). Sustained break there will argue that rebound from 1.0694 has completed and bring retest of this low. For now, risk will stay on...
Dollar Rises on Fed Reassessment, But Reversal Pending Confirmation
Dollar ended the week as the strongest currency, boosted by the fresh round of inflation data that led markets to reassess expectations around Fed’s rate cuts. This recalibration was also marked a pronounced rebound in treasury yields and a notably cautious sentiment...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6666 extended last week and confirm short term topping. Initial bias remains on the downside for 0.6476 support first. Break there will argue that decline from 0.6870 is ready to resume through 0.6442 low. On the upside, break of 0.6629 minor...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2715; (P) 1.2769; (R1) 1.2807; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.2892 short term top would target 55 D EMA (now at 1.2673). Sustained break there will target 1.2517 structural support next....
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.71; (P) 148.04; (R1) 148.63; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Corrective fall from 150.87 could have completed at 146.47 already, after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81....
Fed to Keep Rates Unchanged for a Fifth Meeting Even as Inflation Risks Lurk
The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to stand pat on the fed funds range for a fifth consecutive meeting on Wednesday. But any shift in the monetary policy statement language will be closely watched after two straight months of upside surprises on inflation....
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: FOMC Likely on Hold Until Summer
Summary United States: The Equinox and the Struggle to Find Balance Spring is a time for new beginnings, and we see fresh possibility in some of this week’s less-than-stellar data. It may eventually help bring the needed balance into place to get inflation closer to...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Sticky Prices Could Delay Rate Cuts
U.S. Highlights February’s Consumer Price Index report showed that inflation came in higher-than-expected for a second consecutive month – a development which is likely to be on the Fed’s agenda at their two-day meeting next week. Spending in the retail sector...
Summary 3/18 – 3/22
Monday, Mar 18, 2024 Tuesday, Mar 19, 2024 Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024 Thursday, Mar 21, 2024 Friday, Mar 22, 2024 The post Summary 3/18 – 3/22 appeared first on Action Forex.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8795; (P) 0.8819; (R1) 0.8862; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside at this point. Consolidation from 0.8884 could have completed with three waves to 0.8728. Further rise should be seen to retest 0.8891 resistance first....
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0858; (P) 1.0907; (R1) 1.0932; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.0980 short term top would target 1.0797 support. Firm break there will argue that rebound from 1.0694 has completed and bring...
