Forex
US durable goods orders rises 1.4% mom in Feb, above exp 1.3% mom
US durable goods orders rose 1.4% mom to USD 277.9B in February, above expectation of 1.3% mom. Ex-transport orders rose 0.5% mom to USD 185.6B above expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 2.2% mom to USD 263.8B, above expectation of 1.3% mom. Transportation...
XAU/USD: Gold Retests $2200 Barrier on Renewed Safe-haven Demand
Gold price jumped on Tuesday and retested psychological $2200 barrier, inflated by weaker dollar on improved sentiment about Fed rate cuts and persisting geopolitical risks. Market awaits release of US inflation data, due later this week, which could bring fresh hints...
Australian Dollar Edges Higher, CPI Next
The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6557, up 0.26%. On today’s data calendar, the US will release two tier-1 events. Durable goods orders are expected to rebound with a 1.1% gain in February, after...
EURCHF Rallies Towards 8-Month High
EURCHF looks strongly bullish this year Technical oscillators confirm upside tendency EURCHF has added almost 6% since the beginning of the year, recording a new eight-month high of 0.9786. The pair is creating a steep upward tendency with no notable bearish...
Bitcoin Perfect Reaction Higher From Blue Box Area
In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of Bitcoin ticker symbol: $BTCUSD. We presented to members at the elliottwave-forecast. In which, the rally from the 11 September 2023 low is unfolding as an impulse...
Fed Speakers Covered Full Spectrum of Intra-FOMC Views
Markets In a more or less synchronic, technically inspired move US, EMU and UK bond markets reversed most of Friday’s rally. Eco data were few and mostly second tier. Marginally softer-than-expected US new homes sales (-0,3% M/M) had little impact on trading. Fed...
German GfK consumer sentiment edges up to -27.4, uncertainty overshadowing facts
In a modest uptick, Germany’s GfK Consumer Sentiment Index for April has slightly improved to -27.4 from March’s -28.8, marginally above expectation of -27.8. March’s data revealed an improvement in economic expectations and income outlooks, with the former rising to...
CHF/JPY Technical: On the Brink of a Potential Major Bearish Breakdown (CHF Weakness)
The surprise rate cut by SNB has reinforced the bearish momentum of CHF/JPY. CHF has weakened across the board against the G-10 currencies; it is the weakest against the EUR. Watch the 169.00 key short-term resistance on CHF/JPY with key support coming in at 166.55....
GBPUSD Bounces Off 200-Day SMA
GBPUSD finds support at uptrend line But short-term outlook remains neutral MACD and RSI are mixed GBPUSD rebounded off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which coincides with the 1.2595 support level and the medium-term ascending trend line. The market has...
FX option expiries for 26 March 10am New York cut
There are a couple of large ones to be wary of for the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered at the 1.0860-70 level. That coincides with some technical layers that could keep a lid on price action in the session ahead. Of note, the 100...
Swiss Franc Dips in Muted Trade, Bitcoin Eyes Uptrend Resumption
Swiss Franc traded broadly lower in Asian session today, amidst a backdrop of general market inactivity with all other major pairs and crosses staying inside Monday’s range. Still, it remains to be seen whether the Franc’s sell-off could extend beyond last week’s...
Bitcoin Price Recovered over the Weekend, But Market Anxiety Remains
From the point of view of technical analysis of BTC/USD, on Friday evening the price of Bitcoin was near the lower boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue). This was alarming as it indicated that the market action could result in a weekly bearish candle...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2558; (P) 1.2617; (R1) 1.2658; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with current recovery and some consolidations would be seen first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2700) holds. Below 1.2574 will...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0784; (P) 1.0826; (R1) 1.0850; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current recovery and some consolidations would be seen. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0868) holds. Below 1.0801 will resume...
Gold’s Prospects Look Promising
Gold prices have stabilized around $2170.00 per troy ounce after two days of decline. Investors are taking a pause ahead of an important US inflation indicator report due this week, which could provide insights into the future direction of the Federal Reserve’s...
USD/JPY Drifting at Start of Week
The Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.25, down 0.13%. Yen can’t find its footing Last week’s Bank of Japan was dramatic as the central bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2007....
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The yuan’s sharp rebound this morning triggered some attention, if only because other news was so limited today. USD/CNY shot up last Friday on signals that Chinese authorities loosened their grip on the 7.2 handle it defended for several months. Clearly they...
Fed’s Goolsbee forecasts three rate cuts amid rising real interest rate restrictiveness
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told Yahoo Finance that he aligned with the “median” projections regarding the monetary easing path forward, as anticipates three rate cuts within the year. In this “murky period” of economic recovery as Goolsbee described, Fed...
Fed’s Cook: Risks of meeting dual manage more balanced
Fed Governor Lisa Cook pointed out in a speech that risks associated with meeting the dual mandate goals of inflation and employment are “moving into better balance”. She explained that prematurely easing monetary policy might “allow above-target inflation to become...
USDJPY- Bulls Hold Grip for Further Gains after Consolidation
Bulls are taking a breather and consolidating just under key barriers at 150.90/94 (2023/22 tops) after strong rally in past two weeks. USDJPY was inflated by a wide gap between US and Japan’s interest rates, with no positive impact from BoJ’s rate hike last week, as...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8953; (P) 0.8987; (R1) 0.9009; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidations below 0.9019 temporary top first. Downside of retreat should be contained above 0.8838 support to bring rebound. Break of 0.9019 will resume larger...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.02; (P) 151.44; (R1) 151.88; More… USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 151.92 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 150.25 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key resistance will...
Subdued Currency Movements, Cautious Stocks, Range Trading Gold
Mild risk-off mood is seen in the global financial markets today, starting from the the noticeable retreat in Japan’s Nikkei, then the marginal declines across European stock indices, alongside soft US futures. However, this sense of caution has not significantly...
Gold Pulls Back from All-Time High
Gold moves horizontally within 2,145-2,195 MACD and RSI lose steam Gold prices have been moving lower over the last couple of days after the bullish spike towards the all-time high of 2,222.68 that was posted in the preceding week. The market has been developing...
Australian Dollar Stabilizes, Consumer Sentiment Next
The Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains, after sliding 0.86% on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6530, up 0.24%. PBoC move sends Aussie sharply lower The Australian dollar ended the week with sharp losses after China’s...
ECB’s Lane confident that wages growth is on track to normalize
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, in a podcast published today, conveyed a sense of confidence among policymakers regarding wage growth trends. Lane articulated that policymakers are “confident” that wages growth is “on track” to return to normal. “If this assessment...
Crypto Market Comes to Life
Market picture The crypto market cap rose 4.5% over 24 hours to $2.56 trillion, roughly where it was a week ago, with an active rally over the last three days. Bitcoin is up 4.7%, and Ethereum is up 4.3% in 24 hours. Their momentum has encouraged even more robust...
Threat is the Only Way to Stop Yen Bleeding
The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decided to hike the interest rates for the first time after 17 years but the yen has been weakening since then, on fear that this would be a ‘one and done’ cut. As a result, not only that the yen bulls are nowhere to be found but some traders...
No Major Data Releases Today – ECB President Lagarde and Fed’s Bostic and Cook Will Speak
In focus today The week starts out without any major data releases today. ECB president Lagarde and Fed’s Bostic and Cook will speak today. Later this week we look out for local inflation prints from Spain, France, and Italy that will give clues of where we can expect...
Chinese and Japanese Officials Started Offensive to Prevent Further Currency Losses
Markets The path of least resistance on yields markets on Friday still was south. Investors after Wednesday’s Fed meeting/press conference clearly saw the glass half empty, rather than half full. The dots suggested otherwise with both growth and inflation forecasts...
EURUSD Dives Towards 1.0800 – Action Forex
EURUSD breaks SMAs to the downside Immediate support at rising trend line MACD and RSI suggest more negative movements EURUSD is showing some strong selling interest over the last couple of days, following the pullback from the 1.0940 resistance level. The price is...
Hang Seng Index: Potential Currency War May Kick Start Another Bearish Leg
A less dovish Fed with a surprise cut by SNB has triggered a bout of US dollar strength since last Thursday, 21 March. China’s central bank, PBoC responded with a lower-than-expected daily fixing on the onshore yuan (CNY) last Friday, 22 March which led the offshore...
FX option expiries for 25 March 10am New York cut
There aren't any significant expiries in play for the day ahead. As such, trading sentiment will continue to revolve around the mix of the technicals, risk mood, and broader market sentiment. So far today, there isn't much to really work with as most markets remain...
Light Week Ahead with Dollar Rally Awaiting PCE Inflation Insights
The forex markets display a calm demeanor in the Asian session, with most major pairs and crosses gyrating in very tight ranges. Australian Dollar finds modest support from the state orchestrated rebound in Chinese Yuan. However, this lift hasn’t translated into clear...
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Switzerland Strengthens the Dollar The key event of the past week was undoubtedly the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve on March 20. As expected, the American Central Bank unanimously decided to maintain the key interest...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s rally accelerated to as high as 0.9786 last week. But a temporary top should be formed after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9252 at 0.9773. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation in range of 1.6439/6742 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.6439 support holds. On the upside, above 1.6677 will target 1.6742...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s break of 0.8577 resistance and 55 D EMA (now at 0.8562) last week suggest that rebound from 0.8497 is at least correcting the fall from 0.8764. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 161.8% projection of 0.8497 to 0.8577 from 0.8503 at 0.8632. For,...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and surged to 165.33. But as a temporary top was formed with subsequent retreat, initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations. Downside should be contained by 55 4H EMA (now at 163.23) to bring rebound. On the...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and surged to 193.51, but retreated notably since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more corrective trading. Nevertheless, outlook will stay bullish as long as 187.94 support holds. On the upside, break of 193.51...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
Much volatility was seen in USD/CAD last week. But after all, near term outlook remains bullish with 1.3419 support intact. Initial focus is now on 1.3612 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 1.3176 towards 1.3897 resistance. On the downside,...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s rally resumed last week and surged to 0.9019. Initial bias stays on the upside for 100% projection projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9062. On the downside, below 0.8922 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations....
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s fall from 1.2892 accelerated lower last week, despite interim rebound. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.2517 support. Decisive break there will suggest that rise from 1.2036 has completed at 1.2892 already, and turn near term outlook...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s rally resumed last week and edged higher to 151.82, but turned sideway since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 150.11) holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s fall from 1.0980 continued last week and the strong break of 55 D EMA suggest that rebound from 1.0694 has completed. Initial bias stays on the downside for retesting 1.0694 first. Break there will resume the decline from 1.1138 and target 100% projection of...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s strong was rebound last week was capped below 0.6666 resistance, and followed by equally steep decline. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, with focus on 0.6503 support. Decisive break there will indicate that larger fall from 0.6870 is ready to...
Dollar Triumphs Following a Turbulent Week of Central Bank Shocks
The past week in the currency markets was a dramatic whirlwind, marked by pivotal moves from major central banks across the globe. From BoJ’s unexpected hike to SNB’s surprise cut, from Fed’s hawkish leaning projections to BoE’s dovish voting, they collectively...
Weekly Focus – Historical Central Bank Week: A Hike and A Cut in G10
The past week will go down in history as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiked the policy rate for the first time in 17 years while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its rate, becoming the first G10 central bank to do so in the current cycle. The BoJ decided to set the...
Canada’s January GDP to Edge Higher on Recovery from Quebec Strike
Canadian gross domestic product for January is expected to show modest growth on Thursday, while employment data will highlight whether weakness in job vacancies and wage growth still persists ahead of the Easter long weekend. We expect the Canadian economy to edge up...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Sitting, Waiting, Wishing
Summary United States: Residential Tailwind Set to Continue as Monetary Policy Becomes Less Restrictive This week’s economic data indicate that the U.S. economy is still expanding at a solid pace with the housing sector continuing to provide a tailwind. During...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Counting Cuts
U.S. Highlights Markets let out a sigh of relief as the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections reaffirmed expectations for three rate cuts this year. The Fed’s forecast for the economy is interesting, as it implies above trend growth in each of the next three years –...
Summary 3/25 – 3/29
Monday, Mar 25, 2024 Tuesday, Mar 26, 2024 Wednesday, Mar 27, 2024 Thursday, Mar 28, 2024 Friday, Mar 29, 2024 The post Summary 3/25 – 3/29 appeared first on Action Forex.
GBP/USD Faces Sharp Decline Amid BoE’s Monetary Policy Stance
As of Friday, the GBP/USD pair hovered around 1.2642, following a substantial decline. The Bank of England (BoE) has yet to find reasons to lower the interest rate, indicating intentions to maintain high rates for an extended period to support the necessary inflation...
Rising Dollar Spooked Bitcoin, But Not the Entire Crypto Market
Market picture The cryptocurrency market closed lower on Thursday, but little changed from the $2.53 trillion market cap over 24 hours. However, the internal dynamics are mixed. Bitcoin loses 1.5% and retreats to $66K, while Ethereum hovers around $3500 (-0.25%), BNB...
Pound Drops to 1-Month Low After Flat Retail Sales
The British pound has extended its losses on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2600, down 0.45%. Earlier, the pound fell as low as 1.2584, its lowest level since March 20. UK retail sales unchanged in February UK retail sales were flat in...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0830; (P) 1.0886; (R1) 1.0917; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. Current development argues that corrective recovery from 1.0694 has completed at 1.0980 already. Deeper fall is expected to retest 1.0694 next....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2605; (P) 1.2704; (R1) 1.2757; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for 1.2517 support Decisive break there will suggest that rise from 1.2036 has completed at 1.2892 already, and turn near term outlook bearish On the upside,...
USD/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8878; (P) 0.8936; (R1) 0.9033; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 0.8332 is in progress for 100% projection projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9062. On the downside, below 0.8922...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Wednesday’s Fed dots & Powell’s press conference brought a diffuse message, hampering an unequivocal market reaction. Higher/above neutral growth, a material uplift in especially this year’s inflation forecast and the unemployment rate holding below NAIRU...
Weekly Focus – Historical Central Bank Week: A Hike and A Cut in G10
The past week will go down in history as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiked the policy rate for the first time in 17 years while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its rate, becoming the first G10 central bank to do so in the current cycle. The BoJ decided to set the...
Week Ahead – Markets Quiet Down After Central Bank Frenzy
Dollar recovers after Fed selloff, turns to PCE inflation Yen falls despite rate increase, testing three-decade lows Quarter-end flows could disturb the waters in a quiet week Dollar stages recovery after Fed It was an action-packed week for FX traders, with five...
Will PCE Data Revive Concerns About Sticky US Inflation?
Fed continues to see three rate cuts for 2024 Investors add back to the June cut probability Focus shifts to next week’s core PCE index The data comes out on Friday at 12:30 GMT Fed appears more dovish than expected The Fed appeared more dovish than expected at its...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.69; (P) 151.22; (R1) 152.18; More… USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 151.82 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 149.97) holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key resistance...
Canadian Dollar Dips as Retail Sales Disappoint
The Canadian dollar has extended its losses on Friday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3569 in the North American session, up 0.29%. Canada’s retail sales slip in January Canada’s retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in January, revised from the earlier estimate of -0.4% and well off...
Yen Rebounds Amid Short-Covering, Dollar Rally Eases
Japanese Yen rebounds broadly today, likely driven by traders taking profits on short positions after a significant week of sell-off following BoJ’s rate hike. This stabilization comes amidst speculations stirred by Japan’s latest inflation data, raising the prospect...
Canada’s retail sales falls -0.3% mom in Jan, led by motor vehicle and parts dealers
Canada’s retail value fell -0.3% mom to CAD 67.0B in January, smaller than expectation of -0.4% mom decline. Sales were down in three of nine subsectors and were led by decreases at motor vehicle and parts dealers (-2.4% mom) Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline...
Gold’s Retreat Not Yet a Reversal
The Fed’s comments led to a 3% rise in gold, but the dollar’s recovery in the second half of Thursday reduced this gain to just 0.5%. Technically, the outlook is unclear, but fundamentally, things are still on the side of the bulls. In early trading on Thursday, gold...
ECB’s Nagel: June cut increasingly likely, but no automatism afterwards
In a webcast today, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel indicated that the chance is increasing for a first rate cut “before the summer break” in August. However, he cautioned that afterwards, ECB will maintain a data-dependent approach and policy loosening...
XAU/USD: Gold Eases from New Record High
Gold price eases further on Friday, extending pullback from new record high $2222 (posted on Thursday) after a strong upside rejection on probe above psychological $2200 barrier. The yellow metal came under increased pressure from stronger dollar after Fed kept the...
GBPJPY Plummets from 8½-Year High
GBPJPY may rest near 190.00 round number MACD and RSI confirm bearish retracement Broader outlook looks strongly bullish GBPJPY is retreating after the pullback off the eight-and-a-half-year high of 193.55 and is moving towards the short-term ascending trend line....
German Ifo business climate rises to 87.8, glimpses light on the horizon
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 87.8 in March, from the previous 85.7, surpassing anticipated 86.2. This uplift is mirrored in both Current Assessment Index, which advanced from 86.9 to 88.1 against expectations of 86.8. Expectations Index, which climbed...
Is There Stronger Bullish Trend for USDCAD?
USDCAD switches back to gains, surpasses SMAs Technical signals cannot warrant a bullish channel breakout USDCAD successfully recovered from a flash drop to 1.3454 and closed Thursday’s session above the 50- and 200-day SMAs, maintaining its position within the...
AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signal More Losses
AUD/USD declined below the 0.6575 and 0.6550 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might trade below the 0.6000 zone. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6600 level...
UK retail sales volumes flat in Feb, sales value down -0.1% mom
In February 2024, UK’s retail sales volumes remained unchanged month-over-month, a performance that’s better than expectation of -0.3% mom decline. Meanwhile, sales value slightly dipped by a -0.1% mom. A broader examination reveals -0.4% decline in sales volumes over...
FX option expiries for 22 March 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of for the day ahead, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD, which are layered from 1.0825 to 1.0850. Those expiries are likely to keep price action more compact in the session ahead, as traders also contest the key...
Dollar Strikes Back as Investors Reevaluate Global Central Bank Paths
Dollar mounted a significant comeback overnight, demonstrating resilience amidst surge in risk-on sentiment that propelled the three major US stock indexes to record highs. The greenback continued to extend gains in Asian session, surpassing pre-FOMC highs against...
GBPUSD Trims FOMC Rally Amid a Busy Day
GBPUSD corrects lower after hitting resistance at 1.2800 Technical signals weaken, but key support levels are underneath GBPUSD rose exponentially in the aftermath of the FOMC policy meeting, but the ascending line drawn from the December 2023 low interrupted the...
Crypto Finished Its Pullback Thanks to Fed
Market picture The Fed’s comments returned risk appetite to global markets, immediately bringing buyers back to cryptocurrencies. In 24 hours, total market capitalisation rose 7.7% to $2.55 trillion. Bitcoin is showing roughly the same amplitude of growth, but...
GBPUSD Elliott Wave : Buying The Dips At The Blue Box Area
Hello fellow traders. In this technical article, we’re going to take a look into the Elliott Wave charts of GBPUSD, exclusively presented in the members’ area of our website. As our members know GBPUSD has recently made pull back that made clear 3 waves down from the...
USDJPY Reaction to Fed and BoJ Decisions
Fed and BoJ decisions have some impact on USDJPY Daily chart shows some weakness for the next few sessions But weekly chart looks strongly bullish FOMC decision drives dollar lower The dollar declined following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, as Federal Reserve Chair...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8846; (P) 0.8882; (R1) 0.8905; More…. USD/CHF’s rally resumed after drawing support from 55 4H EMA, and breaks through 0.8917. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 100% projection projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.71; (P) 151.26; (R1) 151.80; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidations continue below 151.82 temporary top. Further rise is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 149.63) holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0864; (P) 1.0894; (R1) 1.0951; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the downside at this point. Pull back from 1.0980 has possibly completed at 1.0834, after drawing support from 55 D EMA. Firm break of 1.0980 resistance will resume the...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2718; (P) 1.2753; (R1) 1.2820; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.2666 support and sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.2685) will target 1.2517 structural support next. However, break of...
Bank of England Review – Gearing Up for a June Cut
At today’s monetary policy meeting the BoE left the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% as widely expected. The BoE delivered a dovish twist to its forward guidance and general communication. This marks an important first step to an eventual cutting cycle. EUR/GBP moved...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The EMU economy came close to stabilizing in March with price pressures easing. The composite PMI recovered slightly more than hoped, from 49.2 to 49.9 (vs 49.7 consensus), matching the best (least bad) outcome since June of last year. Divergence between a...
US PMI composite falls to 52.2, unwelcome consumer price pressure in the coming months
US PMI Manufacturing rose from 52.2 to 52.5 in March, a 21-month high. PMI Services fell from 52.3 to 51.7. PMI Composite also fell from 52.5 to 52.2. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Further expansions of both...
EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9656; (P) 0.9672; (R1) 0.9703; More.. EUR/CHF surges to as high as 0.9780 today and met 61.8% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9252 at 0.9773 already. The strong break of 0.9683 resistance carries larger bullish implications. Intraday bias stays on the...
Swiss Franc Tumbles on SNB Cut; Sterling Falters as Hawks Retreat
Swiss Franc is trading as the day’s most significant loser in the wake of SNB’s surprising decision to cut interest rates. This move, along with a substantial downward revision of inflation forecasts, is seen by some economists as a strategic effort by SNB to...
BoE maintains status quo as hawks relinquish rate hike demands
BoE maintained the Bank Rate at 5.25% as widely expected. The decision was made by an 8-1 vote, with Swati Dhingra singularly advocating for a reduction again. Notably, previous hawks Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann adjusted their positions, refraining from...
(BOE) Bank rate maintained at 5.25%
Monetary Policy Summary, March 2024 The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 20 March 2024, the MPC voted by a...
USD/CHF Analysis: SNB Decision Breaks Multi-month Trend
According to Reuters, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, the head of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Thomas Jordan told the Swiss press that the appreciation of the franc creates problems for exporters. Thus, indicating intentions to...
Eurozone PMI composite ticks up to 49.9, price development not enough to alter ECB’s course
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing from 46.5 to 45.7 in March, below expectation of 47.0. PMI services, on the other hand rose from 50.2 to 51.5, above expectation of 50.5 a 9-month high. PMI Composite ticked up from 49.2 to 49.9, also a 9-month high. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief...
EUR/USD Soars Following Fed’s Decision on Interest Rate Cuts
The EUR/USD pair soared to a weekly high of 1.0933 on Thursday following the Federal Reserve System’s announcement of three interest rate cuts planned for 2024. These adjustments will reduce borrowing costs by 75 basis points. The interest rate remains at 5.5%...
UK PMI manufacturing hits 20-month high, services ease slightly
UK PMI Manufacturing rose from 47.5 to 49.9 in March, above expectation of 47.9, a 20-month high. PMI Services fell slightly from 53.8 to 53.4, below expectation of 53.8. PMI Composite ticked down from 53.0 to 52.9. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at...
AUDUSD Advances Sharply in the FOMC Aftermath
AUDUSD was in a steady retreat since early March But finds feet and reclaims both SMAs after dovish FOMC Momentum indicators improve drastically AUDUSD had been losing ground since the beginning of March, dropping below its descending 50- and 200-day simple moving...
SNB cuts interest rate, sharply slashes inflation forecasts
In a surprising move, SNB announced a -25bps cut in its policy rate, bringing it down to 1.50%. This decision also introduced a tiered system for the remuneration of banks’ sight deposits held at SNB. Deposits up to a specified threshold will earn interest at the...
(SNB) Swiss National Bank Eases Monetary Policy and Lowers SNB Policy Rate to 1.5%
The Swiss National Bank is lowering the SNB policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%. The change applies from tomorrow, 22 March 2024. Banks’ sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold, and at 1.0% above...
FX option expiries for 21 March 10am New York cut
There are ones to watch out for on the day, as highlighted in bold.They are for EUR/USD and layered around the 1.0900-20 level. Alongside a softer dollar after the Fed yesterday, the expiries should help to keep the pair supported in the session ahead. However, do...
Dollar Wanes as Fed Sticks to Three Cuts Projection; Aussie Jumps; BoE and SNB Next
Dollar took a nosedive overnight as investors were apparently relieved that Fed is still on track to cut interest rates three times this year. The odds for a June cut as indicated by fed fund futures also jumped back to above 70%. The positive sentiment shoot major US...
Gold Technical: A Potential Minor Corrective Pull-back in Play as FOMC Looms
Gold (XAU/USD) has traded in a tight range of 2% in the past two weeks after it printed a fresh all-time high of US$2,195 on 8 March. The biggest risk event for today will be the latest Fed FOMC’s dot plot projection on the trajectory of its Fed funds rate; a...
Fed still sees three cuts this year, but slower easing thereafter
Fed left interest rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as widely expected. The new economic projections and dot plots are clearly more hawkish than December’s. Yet, Dollar dips initially after the announcement, perhaps because they’re not as hawkish as feared. In the new...
Fed Chair Powell press conference live stream
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(FED) Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8866; (P) 0.8882; (R1) 0.8898; More…. USD/CHF’s rally from 0.8332 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.8934. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.9062...
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Hits Four-Month Low
The USD/JPY pair surged to a four-month high as investors recalibrated their expectations for the Bank of Japan’s future actions. The consensus is now that the BoJ’s monetary policy will remain accommodative, even with the shift away from negative interest rates. On...
WTI Oil Price Falls on Profit Taking from New Multi-Month High
WTI oil price pulls back from new 4 ½ month high ($83.10), down 1.6% for the day so far, as traders collected profits ahead of Fed policy announcement. The oil price accelerated higher recently on fresh concerns about oil supply, following attacks on Russian refining...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The ECB and its Watchers XXIV conference and UK February CPI data provided a welcome interlude counting down to tonight’s Fed decision. ECB Lagarde basically held to the recent communication line. Moving into the dial back phase requires wage growth to slow...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.58; (P) 150.27; (R1) 151.55; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at for 151.93 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87...
Time for USDCAD to Go for a Higher High?
USDCAD rises after cooler than expected Canadian inflation A break above 1.3605 could signal uptrend continuation For the outlook to turn bearish, a dip below 1.3455 may be needed USDCAD rose yesterday after the Canadian CPI numbers came in lower than...
Will JP 225 Index Continue Its Record Rally?
JP 225 index flirts with all-time highs Short-term technical signals remain encouraging Japan’s 225 stock index (cash) is on the rise again, aiming to revive its five-month-old positive trend above the March record high of 40,564 after finding support near the 38,310...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2681; (P) 1.2708; (R1) 1.2747; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidations above 1.2666 temporary low. Deeper decline is still in favor as long as 1.2822 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0842; (P) 1.0859; (R1) 1.0884; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.0834 temporary low. Further decline is in favor as long as 1.0905 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at...
Dollar Holds Strength Ahead of Fed Dot Plot Update
Dollar stands firm as the day’s strongest currency, with the financial markets on edge for the Fed’s impending announcement. While interest rate is widely anticipated to hold steady at 5.25-5.50%, the spotlight is on the potential adjustments to Fed’s dot plot....
USD: FOMC Meeting Takes Centre Stage
Today’s FOMC meeting is the highlight of the week, and Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, discusses the USD outlook ahead of the announcement. Praefcke believes there’s low risk of the Dollar declining post-meeting due to unlikely dovish surprises, especially...
ECB’s Lagarde sets conditions for June rate cut
ECB President Christine Lagarde provided clarity in a speech on the conditions that would lead to a rate cut in June, highlighting reliance on “two important pieces of evidence” as pivotal to the central bank’s confidence on dialing back monetary restrictions. ....
Bitcoin and Ethereum Seek Support
Market picture The crypto market correction continues to deepen, although there have been some signs of stabilisation since the start of the day on Wednesday. The decline has continued for a whole week, reducing the market cap by almost 15%. The total cap was down to...
EURGBP Struggles to Surpass 23.6% Fibo
EURGBP remains in sideways channel Technical oscillators lose steam EURGBP is finding another strong obstacle to surpass within the medium-term trading range of 0.8497 to 0.8578. Specifically, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 0.8765 to 0.8497...
Fed Risks Tilted Towards Hawkish Surprise
Markets We can’t but start with the Japanese yen again. Including this morning’s price action, USD/JPY (151.57) is an inch away from the 2022 multi-decade yen lows (at 151.95). EUR/JPY (164.68) already surpassed the 2023 high to trade at the strongest level since...
USDJPY Advances in BoJ Aftermath
USDJPY storms to fresh 2024 high after BoJ’s rate hike The pair is within breathing distance from 33-year peak Momentum indicators point to overbought conditions USDJPY has been in a steady uptrend after finding its feet a tad above the 200-day simple moving average...
NZDUSD in the Red Again Ahead of Fed
NZD remains on the back foot against USD NZDUSD has finally broken below its one-year-long rectangle Momentum indicators acknowledge the current bearish move NZDUSD is recording another red candle today and it is trading below the lower boundary of the one-year-old...
Gold in a Descending Correction Mode
Gold creates bearish triangle after bullish rally MACD and RSI look weak Gold prices have been developing within a descending triangle in the 4-hour chart, after the rally towards the new all-time high of 2,195 on March 8. The price is posting a bearish correction...
FX option expiries for 20 March 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD as they are layered from 1.0810 through to 1.0910. That is going to help keep price action more muted around the current levels, with the technicals also in play. The 200-day...
Yen Selloff Intensifies, Attention Shifts to UK CPI and FOMC
Japanese Yen’s decline intensified today and it’s on the verge of breaking to new historical low against the greenback. Japan’s stock markets are on holiday today, but the strong rally in Nikkei yesterday, which surged 40k psychological mark again, was significant....
GBPUSD Retreats Towards 50-day SMA
GBPUSD generates fresh 2024 peak But declines sharply towards the 50-day SMA Momentum indicators weaken significantly GBPUSD has been stuck in a rangebound pattern since mid-November, unable to adopt a clear directional impetus. Although the pair exploded higher and...
Will GBPJPY Enter Territories Last Seen in 2015?
GBPJPY trades higher and hits resistance near 191.30 Remains in uptrend despite BoJ decision MACD and RSI detect positive momentum For the outlook to change, a dip below 187.95 may be needed GBPJPY traded higher yesterday, but hit resistance near the 191.30 barrier...
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3519; (P) 1.3536; (R1) 1.3550; More… USD/CAD’s break of 1.3605 resistance suggests that whole rise from 1.3176 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3540 from 1.3419 at 1.3644 first. Decisive break...
Canada: Inflation Surprises With a Downtick in February
Headline CPI inflation moved slightly lower in February to 2.8% year-on-year (y/y), against expectations for an uptick. Softer inflation at grocery stores was part of the story in February. Grocery price increases cooled from 3.4% y/y in January to 2.4%. This marks...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0857; (P) 1.0881; (R1) 1.0897; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remain son the downside for the moment as fall from 1.0980 is in progress. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.0856) will argue that rebound from 1.0694 has completed and bring...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2716; (P) 1.2731; (R1) 1.2745; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside as fall from 1.2892 is in progress. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.2677) will target 1.2517 structural support next. On the upside, above 1.2758 minor...
Another Downside Surprise in Canadian February CPI
Canadian CPI growth was lower than expected in February, dropping to 2.8% year-over-year from 2.9% in January (expectations were for a 3.1% reading.) The downside surprise was broad-based as core CPI ex-food and energy inflation eased further to 2.8% from 3.1% in...
Is Upside Corrective Phase in AUDCAD Over?
AUDCAD briefly breaks below upside support line Oscillators suggest that momentum is turning bearish For the outlook to brighten, a recovery above 0.8945 may be needed AUDCAD entered a sliding mode on March 12, after hitting resistance at 0.8945, slightly above the...
BoE Policy Meeting: Don’t Expect Fireworks
Bank of England to retain the same policy stance Q2 data could be more valuable for next decision making What happened last time In its February policy meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) emulated the Federal Reserve by exploring rate cuts, ultimately deciding to...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The Bank of Japan’s first rate hike since 2007 that ended an 8-year experiment with negative rates remained talk of the town today. Ironically though, the Japanese yen nor yields profited from what is nevertheless a historical shift, quite the contrary. This...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8838; (P) 0.8863; (R1) 0.8903; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Decisive break of 0.8891 resistance will confirm resumption of rally from 0.8332. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.93; (P) 149.13; (R1) 149.35; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Firm break of 150.87/89 resistance will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from...
Canadian Dollar Dives on CPI Surprise, Market Eyes Earlier BoC Rate Cut
Canadian Dollar falls sharply in early US session, triggered by an unexpected decline in Canada’s headline CPI and a more significant than anticipated slowdown in core inflation measures. This trend of disinflation is likely to reassure BoC that its efforts to curb...
Canadian CPI cools to 2.8% yoy in Feb, below expectations
Canada’s CPI decelerated in February, registering an increase of 2.8% yoy, which fell short of anticipated 3.1% yoy. This slowdown from January’s 2.9% yoy offers a glimmer of relief as inflationary pressures show signs of easing. When gasoline prices are excluded, CPI...
USD/JPY: Yen Loses Ground on Signs of Extended Fed/BoJ Rate Gap
USDJPY was sharply higher (up almost 1%) after BOJ’s major shift, though the message from the central bank was seen as dovish on signals that future policy tightening will be moderate, which will keep the big rate gap between the Fed and BoJ and favor the dollar....
Aussie Slides After RBA’s Pause
The Australian dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6507, down 0.80%. The Aussie is on a nasty slide and has declined by 1.7% since March 13. RBA removes tightening bias The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash...
ECB’s de Guindos and de Cos eye June for rate cut
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasized the bank’s expectation of having “far more data” by June, which will be crucial for evaluating the appropriateness of a rate reduction. De Guindos also noted the current market optimism for a “soft landing” and the...
German ZEW surges to 31.7 on ECB rate cut anticipation
German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose sharply from 19.9 to 31.7 in March , well above expectation of 21.0. Current Situation Index ticked up slightly from -81.7 to -80.5, below expectation of -80.0. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment rose from 25.0 to 33.5, above...
Brent Oil Prices Continue to Surge, Reaching New Peaks
Brent crude oil continues its rally, reaching peak values since early November 2023, with prices around USD 87.00 per barrel. Investor concerns over commodity supply, particularly due to tensions in several oil-producing countries, significantly influence quotes by...
Where Are the Yen Bulls?
We expected – at the start of this year – that March would bring a Fed rate cut. It brought a BoJ rate hike instead. Yes, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) scrapped its negative rate policy, raised the rates from -0.10% to 0%, ditched its YCC policy and ended the purchases of...
RIP NIRP. BoJ Ditches the World’s Last Negative Policy Rate
Markets RIP NIRP. The Bank of Japan ditched the world’s last negative policy rate this morning, raising it from -0.1% to a target range between 0% and 0.1%. The first hike since 2007 ended an 8-year experiment of sub-zero rates. It also scrapped the (soft) 1% cap on...
Swiss SECO lowers 2024 inflation forecasts sharply to 1.5%, keeps growth at 1.1%
The Swiss Federal Expert Group on Business Cycles maintained its expectation for modest GDP growth at 1.1% for 2024, with improvement to 1.7% in 2025. Uunemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 2.3% in 2024 before rising to 2.5% in 2025. Notably, inflation...
BoJ’s Historic Hike Fails to Lift Yen, RBA’s Cautious Stance Weighs on Aussie
Yen declines broadly in a classic “sell-on-news” reaction following BoJ’s landmark decision to exit its eight-year negative interest rate policy and announce its first rate hike in 17 years. Although the immediate economic impact of this move is considered minimal,...
FX option expiries for 19 March 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to really influence price action in trading today. In the case of EUR/USD, there are some slightly decent-sized ones around 1.0855-65 but I reckon it is the technicals that matter more at this point. The 100-day moving average for the...
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6542; (P) 1.6576; (R1) 1.6631; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.6606 will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.6742. Break there will resume larger rise from 1.6127. On the...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8536; (P) 0.8544; (R1) 0.8558; More… Range trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside decisive break of 0.8491/7 support zone will confirm larger down trend resumption and target 0.8464 projection level first....
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.40; (P) 161.90; (R1) 162.74; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Correction from 163.70 should have completed at 160.20. Further rally would be seen to retest 163.70 first. Decisive break there will resume larger...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.94; (P) 189.49; (R1) 190.38; More….. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Correction from 191.29 should have completed at 187.94 already. Further rise should be seen to retest 191.29 high first. Decisive break there will...
Get Ready to Rumble – Central Bank Week is Here
In focus today In the euro area, we will keep an eye on the final inflation data for February. The final HICP figures provide insights into the underlying inflation measures tracked by the ECB, while also revealing drivers behind the relatively strong core inflation...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.34; (P) 148.75; (R1) 149.47; More… USD/JPY’s rebound from 146.47 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Corrective fall from 150.87 should have completed at 146.47, after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8818; (P) 0.8836; (R1) 0.8852; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook and intraday bias stays mildly on the upside. As noted before, consolidation from 0.8884 should have completed with three waves to 0.8728. Further rally should be seen to retest...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets US Treasuries hold near last week’s sell-off lows in an uneventful trading session awaiting major central bank decisions. US yield currently trade up to 1.5 bps higher across the curve with both the US 2-yr and 10-yr yield testing the YTD highs at 4.74% and at...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2721; (P) 1.2741; (R1) 1.2755; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook as fall from 1.2892 short term top is in progress. Deeper decline would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2673). Firm break there will target .2517 structural support. For now, risk...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0873; (P) 1.0887; (R1) 1.0900; More… No change in EUR/USD and intraday bias stays on the downside. Fall from 1.0980 short term top would target 55 D EMA (now at 1.0856). Sustained break there will argue that rebound from 1.0694 has completed and...
Yen on the Brink as Markets Await BoJ
Yen’s continued weakness persists in today’s subdued market, despite growing expectations for a BoJ rate hike in the upcoming Asian session—a move anticipated to conclude its longstanding negative rates policy. Although the anticipated adjustment from -0.10% to 0.00%...
Yen Surprisingly Weakens into BoJ Decision
A week packed with central bank decisions starts on a mixed note after hotter-than-expected US inflation sent the US 2-year yield around 25bp higher over the week and the 10-year yield spiked past the 4.30% mark. Stocks resisted to higher yields for the major part of...
USD/JPY in Holding Pattern Ahead of Key BoJ Meeting
The Japanese yen is showing limited movement to start off the week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading is almost unchanged at 149.07. Will the BoJ raise rates on Tuesday? The Bank of Japan will make its rate announcement on Tuesday and there is a strong...
Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.6% in Feb, core CPI at 3.1%
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.6% yoy in February, down from 2.8% yoy in January. CPI core (excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 3.1% yoy, down from prior month’s 3.3% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual Eurozone inflation rate came...
Gold Retreats from All-Time High
Gold pulls back from its recent record peak Momentum indicators exit overbought conditions Gold experienced a massive surge following its profound break above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), posting a fresh all-time high of 2,195 on March 8. However, bullion...
USD/JPY: JPY Plummeted, Ignoring the Possibility of a More Hawkish BoJ
The price actions of the USD/JPY have reacted negatively right below the 150.70 key resistance as highlighted in our previous analysis and shed -435 pips/-2.9% to print a recent intraday low of 146.48 on 8 March. Thereafter, the USD/JPY has drifted higher to trade...
This Week is Jampacked with Central Bank Meetings
Markets Core bonds fell on each and every day last week, including on Friday. Weekly gains for US yields varied between 17.6 bps (30-y) to 27.9 bps (5-y). German rates added between 14.7 and 19.1 bps in a curve move similar to the US. Real yields accounted for the...
AUD/USD Stabilizes Amid Chinese Economic Data and US Inflation Concerns
The Australian dollar has momentarily halted its downward trajectory against the US dollar, stabilizing around the 0.6565 mark. With a lack of significant domestic data from Australia, the AUD’s movements are largely influenced by the performance of the Chinese yuan...
EURUSD Trades Sideways After Sharp DFrop
EURUSD rotates lower after its advance gets rejected Trades flat in past few sessions within the Ichimoku cloud Momentum indicators weaken but remain positive EURUSD had been in a steady recovery from its 2024 bottom of 1.0693, advancing to as high as 1.0980 on March...
BTC/USD Analysis: Bears Have Become More Active Near $70,000 Level
On February 26 (A), a strong bullish impulse started in the Bitcoin market. Its trajectory is visually described by a blue line. The price of bitcoins developed along it — this can be interpreted in such a way that market participants agreed that the value of the...
Caution Prevails as Markets Brace for Central Bank Frenzy and Economic Data
Yen softened slightly in Asian session today, influenced by a robust rebound in strong rebound in Nikkei. Meanwhile, New Zealand Dollar received a modest boost, buoyed by an upturn in the country’s services data. This was mirrored by the Australian Dollar, which,...
FX option expiries for 18 March 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 mark. The expiry is a sizable one and given the lack of appetite in markets today, it should help to play a part in limiting price action in the pair before...
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Stubborn Inflation Refuses to Back Down Market participants last week were keenly focused on inflation data from the US. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for Wednesday, 20 March, and these figures will...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF stayed in consolidation below 0.9630 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Another dip cannot be ruled out, but outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9510 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.9630 will resume...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD recovered after drawing support from 1.6450, but upside is still capped by 1.6606 minor resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.6606 will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.6742. Break there will...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP was still bounded in range of 0.8497/8577 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside decisive break of 0.8491/7 support zone will confirm larger down trend resumption and target 0.8464 projection level...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s break of 162.16 minor resistance last week suggests that correction from 163.70 has completed at 160.20. Initial bias is back on the upside for retesting 163.70 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 153.15 for 164.29 high. In case of...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s break of 189.69 minor resistance suggests that correction from 191.29 has completed at 187.94 already. Initial bias is back on the upside for retesting 191.29 high first. Decisive break there will bring larger up trend resumption. On the downside, break of...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD’s rebound from 1.3419 extended higher last week and the development suggests that corrective pullback from 1.3605 has completed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 1.3605 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume whole rally...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s strong rebound last week suggests that consolidation from 0.8884 has completed with three waves to 0.8728. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week for retesting 0.8891 resistance first. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 0.8332. Next...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s decline last week indicates short term topping at 1.2892. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 1.2673). Firm break there will bring deeper fall to 1.2517 structural support. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s strong rebound last week suggests that corrective fall from 150.87 has completed at 146.47, after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 150.87/89 key resistance zone....
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s fall last week indicates short term topping at 1.0980. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 1.0853). Sustained break there will argue that rebound from 1.0694 has completed and bring retest of this low. For now, risk will stay on...
Dollar Rises on Fed Reassessment, But Reversal Pending Confirmation
Dollar ended the week as the strongest currency, boosted by the fresh round of inflation data that led markets to reassess expectations around Fed’s rate cuts. This recalibration was also marked a pronounced rebound in treasury yields and a notably cautious sentiment...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6666 extended last week and confirm short term topping. Initial bias remains on the downside for 0.6476 support first. Break there will argue that decline from 0.6870 is ready to resume through 0.6442 low. On the upside, break of 0.6629 minor...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2715; (P) 1.2769; (R1) 1.2807; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.2892 short term top would target 55 D EMA (now at 1.2673). Sustained break there will target 1.2517 structural support next....
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.71; (P) 148.04; (R1) 148.63; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Corrective fall from 150.87 could have completed at 146.47 already, after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81....
Fed to Keep Rates Unchanged for a Fifth Meeting Even as Inflation Risks Lurk
The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to stand pat on the fed funds range for a fifth consecutive meeting on Wednesday. But any shift in the monetary policy statement language will be closely watched after two straight months of upside surprises on inflation....
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: FOMC Likely on Hold Until Summer
Summary United States: The Equinox and the Struggle to Find Balance Spring is a time for new beginnings, and we see fresh possibility in some of this week’s less-than-stellar data. It may eventually help bring the needed balance into place to get inflation closer to...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Sticky Prices Could Delay Rate Cuts
U.S. Highlights February’s Consumer Price Index report showed that inflation came in higher-than-expected for a second consecutive month – a development which is likely to be on the Fed’s agenda at their two-day meeting next week. Spending in the retail sector...
Summary 3/18 – 3/22
Monday, Mar 18, 2024 Tuesday, Mar 19, 2024 Wednesday, Mar 20, 2024 Thursday, Mar 21, 2024 Friday, Mar 22, 2024 The post Summary 3/18 – 3/22 appeared first on Action Forex.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8795; (P) 0.8819; (R1) 0.8862; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside at this point. Consolidation from 0.8884 could have completed with three waves to 0.8728. Further rise should be seen to retest 0.8891 resistance first....
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0858; (P) 1.0907; (R1) 1.0932; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.0980 short term top would target 1.0797 support. Firm break there will argue that rebound from 1.0694 has completed and bring...
Euro Stabilizes, ECB Starts Talking Rate Cuts
The euro is steady on Friday, after sustaining sharp losses a day earlier due to the US inflation report. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0893, up 0.09%. ECB members signal rate cuts coming The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate...
Will Canada’s CPI Data Rescue the Wounded Loonie?
BoC sounds less dovish than expected Investors pencil in a first 25bps cut in July Canada’s CPI numbers could affect market expectations The data is scheduled for Tuesday at 12:30 GMT Will the BoC cut interest rates after the Fed? At its latest gathering on March 6,...
RBA Could Maintain a Degree of Hawkishness
RBA will meet on Tuesday, cash rate is expected to be kept unchanged Market wants a dovish show, but RBA could remain somewhat hawkish Aussie could benefit against the US dollar from a hawkish gathering Decision to be announced at 03.30 GMT, press conference one hour...
Week Ahead – Five Central Banks: Who Will Hike, Who Will Not Cut?
Fed meets on Wednesday with focus on new dot plot Will the Bank of Japan finally end negative rates on Tuesday? BoE and RBA to stick with patience, SNB might be in more of a rush to cut Flash PMIs plus inflation data in the UK, Japan and Canada will also be crucial...
Weekly Focus – Will SNB Lead the Way in Cutting Cycle?
US inflation data was the centre of attention this week for financial markets, as price pressures remain elevated. Monthly core CPI inflation of 0.4% for the second consecutive month is too high for the Fed as strong wage growth pushes service prices higher at an...
Fed preview – Taking Stock on QT and Data
We do not expect the Fed to make monetary policy changes in its March meeting, as broadly anticipated by both markets and consensus. Besides the obvious focus on rate cut timing cues, we will keep an eye on the updated rate and economic projections as well as more...
Bank of England Preview – We Still Pencil in the First Cut in June
We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% on 21 March, which is in line with consensus and current market pricing. Overall, we expect the MPC to repeat its previous communication relying on a data dependent approach. We expect a...
BoJ Hike in Sight – But No Reason to Rush
The inflation target has been met for 22 consecutive months. Price pressures consistently rhymes with 2% annual inflation but the sustainability of that depends on wage increases. We think the BoJ is almost ready to hike the interest rate to zero and dismantle yield...
XTIUSD Extends Bullish Phase, but Watch for Retracement Levels Before Continuing to Buy!
Bearish scenario: Shorts below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60, TP2: 79.30, and 78.83 with S.L. above 80.62 or at least 1% of account capital*. Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday longs above 80.70 with TP: 81.50, TP2: 81.85, and TP3: 83.00, with S.L. below 80.00 or at least...
USD/JPY: Stands at the Front Foot Ahead of BoJ and Fed Policy Meetings
USDJPY has so far retraced over 50% of the recent 150.88/146.48 drop, in steep recovery that extends into fifth straight day. Fresh strength emerged from profit-taking after the pair was sharply down on growing speculations that the BoJ would start tightening its...
Yen Retreats Further as Dollar Sees Caution Among Traders
Yen’s pull back continues today despite more positive news on wages negotiations in Japan. Remarkably, the currency has undone its gains from last week against all major counterparts, barring the even more beleaguered New Zealand Dollar. Expectations are still leaning...
US Empire state manufacturing dives to -20.9, activity falls significantly
US Empire State Manufacturing Index fell sharply from -2.4 to -20.9 in March, well below expectation of -6.5. Looking at some details, new orders fell from -6.3 to -17.2. Shipments fell from 2.8 to -6.9. Prices paid fell from 33.0 to -28.7. Prices received ticked up...
Bitcoin Could Correct to $60K
Market picture The cryptocurrency market is under pressure, losing 6% of its capitalisation in the last 24 hours to $2.6 trillion. Bitcoin is losing almost 7% in 24 hours, at one point wiping out last week’s gains and falling to $66.7K. We note that the current area...
WTI Oil Price Reaches 4-month High
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has once again raised its forecasts for global oil demand in 2024. While the agency’s forecast pointed to the prospect of an oil surplus in 2023, its analysts now believe that the world will experience a shortage of oil in the...
Yen Weakens Despite Japan’s Deflation Exit
The USD/JPY pair is rising, reaching 148.28 on Friday. The US dollar is strengthening across the market following the release of US retail sales data. This information is prompting market participants to reassess their expectations for the future of the US Federal...
Gold Price Rally Takes Break, Crude Oil Price Surges
Gold price rallied above $2,180 before correcting lower. Crude oil price is rising and it could climb further higher toward the $82 resistance. Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today Gold price failed to clear the $2,200 resistance and corrected...
GBPJPY Ticks Up from Rising Trend Line
GBPJPY recoups some of the losses RSI and MACD still show some weakness GBPJPY is recovering somewhat from the bearish movement that started from 191.30 and is following the direction of the ascending trend line. The market is also developing within the 20- and the...
Is USDCAD Poised for Another Bullish Round?
USDCAD brings key resistance in focus after rebound Technical signals are encouraging, but a bullish outlook expected above 1.3600 USDCAD made a strong comeback on Thursday, surpassing its simple moving averages (SMAs) and breaching the 1.3500 level after encountering...
US100: Consolidated and Preparing Correction Below 18100. Key Levels on H4
Bearish Scenario: Shorts below 18100 with TP1: 17900, TP2: 17814, and 17630 with S.L. above 18130 or at least 1% of account capital*. Anticipated Bullish Scenario: Intraday longs above 18130 with TP: 18219, TP2: 18270, and TP3: 18428, with S.L. below 18050 or at least...
Japan’s Shunto negotiations yield 5.28% pay rise, a 33-Year High
Japan’s annual labor negotiations, known colloquially as “Shunto” or the “spring wage offensive,” have culminated in a remarkable outcome this year, with major firms agreeing to a pay increase of 5.28%—the highest in 33 years. This significant hike, announced by the...
FX option expiries for 15 March 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being the expiries for USD/CAD around 1.3535-50 near the current levels. That could help to keep price action more limited in the session ahead. However, I'd be more wary of the 100-day moving average at...
Dollar Strengthens as Treasury Yields Surge, Anticipating a Hawkish Fed Shift?
Dollar rebounded strongly overnight along with rally in treasury yields, and maintained its strength in Asian session. This resurgence is largely attributed to traders recalibrating their expectations for Fed’s monetary policy, in light of this week’s inflation data...
OIL (CL_F) Elliott Wave: Buying The Dips At The Blue Box
Hello fellow traders. As our members know , Oil has recently given us good buying opportunity . In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of Oil published in members area of the website. The commodity shows bullish sequences in the cycle...
ECB’s Knot pencils in for Jun rate cut, eyes Sep and Dec meetings too
ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot told reporter today that he has “pencilled in June for a first rate cut”. After that, Know said the subsequent path would be “data-dependent”. Highlighting the significance of ECB’s meetings in September and December, which will...
US retail sales rises 0.6% mom in Feb, ex-auto sales up 0.3% mom
US retail sales grew 0.6% mom to USD 700.7B in February, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.3% mom to USD 566.8B, below expecetation of 0.4% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 647.7B. Ex-auto & gasoline sales rose 0.3% mom to USD 513.7B....
US initial jobless claims falls to 209k vs exp 218k
US initial jobless claims fell -1k to 209k in the week ending March 9, below expectation of 218k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -500 to 208k. Continuing claims rose 17k to 1811k in the week ending March 2. Four-week moving average of continuing...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2778; (P) 1.2794; (R1) 1.2814; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally will remain in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2764) holds. On the upside, above 1.2892 will resume larger rise from 1.2063...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0924; (P) 1.0944; (R1) 1.0968; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0904) holds. Above 1.0980 will resume the rally from 1.0694 to retest 1.1138 high. However,...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8773; (P) 0.8782; (R1) 0.8799; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8741 will argue that the whole rebound from 0.8332 might have completed, and bring deeper fall to 0.8550 support....
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets ECB’s Stournaras this morning hijacked the headlines. The Greek governor said rates need to be cut soon: twice before the summer break (in August) and twice before the end of the year. He expects the first one to happen in June. Dutch hawk Knot sided with his...
ETHUSD Trades Flat in Dencun Upgrade Aftermath
ETHUSD trades sideways in the past few sessions Fails to capitalise on completion of Dencun upgrade on Wednesday Momentum indicators ease but do not exit overbought zones ETHUSD (Ethereum) has been in a steep uptrend in 2024, surging to consecutive multi-month highs....
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.31; (P) 147.68; (R1) 148.12; More… Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole...
U.S. Retail Sales Rebound in February
Retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month (m/m) in February, reversing most of January’s -1.1 % decline (revised from -0.8% previously). This was lower than the consensus forecast calling for slightly stronger growth of 0.8%. Trade in the auto sector was up 1.6% m/m,...
Silver Bulls Return With a Bang
Silver marks new higher highs in the year to date Some caution required as former resistance area is nearby Silver bulls roared back during Wednesday’s late European trading hours, with the metal soaring to a more-than-three month high of 25.14 before closing...
Consolidation Persists Amid Indecision and Anticipation
Consolidative trading continues in the forex markets in general. There is little reaction to the batch of economic data released from there US. Comments from ECB officials were also largely ignored. For now, commodity currencies are the stronger ones for the week, as...
US PPI up 0.6% mom, 1.6% yoy in Feb
US PPI rose 0.6% mom in February above expectation of 0.3% mom. PPI goods rose 1.2% while PPI services rose 0.3% mom. PPI ex-food, energy and trade services rose 0.4% mom. For the 12-month period, PPI rose 1.6% yoy, above expectation of 1.1% yoy. That’s the...
US DJIA Technical: Bullish Breakout Ahoy
In the past five days, the year-to-date laggard Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has played a positive catch-up. On a rolling 5-day performance basis, the DJIA has outperformed with a gain of +1.10% over the Nasdaq 100’s loss of -0.70% due to recent softness seen...
Canadian Dollar Seeks Opportunities for Growth
The USDCAD pair remains within a sideways range, with the Canadian dollar occasionally showing a tendency to strengthen. Recent DES data revealed that Canadian households have become more affluent. In Q4 2023, their “net” worth increased by 1.8%, or 300 billion...
USD/JPY: Analysts Adjust Forecasts for Strengthening of Yen
Since the beginning of 2024, the USD/JPY price has been in an uptrend (as shown by the blue channel), but when the rate exceeded the psychological level of 150 yen per US dollar, market sentiment changed. This was due to expectations that the Bank of Japan would take...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.13; (P) 161.54; (R1) 162.18; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, below 160.20 will resume the fall from 163.70 to 38.2% retracement of 153.15 to 163.70 at 159.66. Sustained break there will...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.48; (P) 189.02; (R1) 189.61; More….. Outlook in GBP/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, below 187.94 will resume the decline from 191.29 to 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 191.29 at 186.33. Sustained break...
ECB’s Stournaras advocates two rate cuts by summer break, four throughout the year
ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournara, a known dove, proposed two rate reductions “before the summer break” and a total of four throughout the year. This strategy, he argues, is essential to ensure that ECB’s monetary policy “does not become too restrictive”...
WTI Oil Futures Fight With 80.80 Bar
WTI crude rebounds off 200-day SMA Remains in an uptrend in the short-term WTI oil futures are finding a strong support level near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 78.00 and are also struggling to jump beyond the 80.80 resistance. The price has been in an...
Greenback’s Performance Has Been Lackluster Recently
Markets US Treasuries extended their post-CPI sell-off yesterday in absence of eco data or other news. US yields added 2.8 bps (30-yr) to 5.3 bps (3-yr). The US 2-yr yield is gradually moving back in the direction of the YTD high at 4.74%. Longer tenors show a similar...
FX option expiries for 14 March 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of for today. As such, trading sentiment is to likely to stay more muted in the session ahead. Traders are waiting on key US data later in the day, so there might not be much appetite to chase any moves in the meantime. If...
Forex Consolidation, Metals Surge, US Retail Sales and PPI Eyed
Overall, the forex markets are still stuck in consolidative trading in Asian session, with expectations set for a subdued European session given the light economic calendar. However, anticipation builds for volatility spikes with releases of US retail sales and PPI...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.85; (P) 147.44; (R1) 148.27; More… USD/JPY is staying in range between 146.47 and 148.29 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8748; (P) 0.8772; (R1) 0.8796; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8741 will argue that the whole rebound from 0.8332 might have completed, and bring deeper fall to 0.8550 support....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2751; (P) 1.2788; (R1) 1.2829; More… Outlook in GBP/USD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally will remain in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2755) holds. On the upside, above 1.2892 will resume larger rise from...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0904; (P) 1.0924; (R1) 1.0946; More… Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further rise is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0894) holds. Above 1.0980 will resume the rally from 1.0694 to retest...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets: The ECB released a statement on the changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policy. In the new framework (cf infra), the ECB will provide liquidity through a mix of instruments including the main refinancing operations (MRO’s), new...
Gold Regains Traction After a Shallow Pullback as June Rate Cut Expectations Remain in Play
Gold price rose on Wednesday, reversing a part of Tuesday’s 1.1% drop, sparked by hotter-than-expected US inflation data, which temporarily cooled expectations for rate cut in June. Fresh gains suggest that markets believe, after digesting the data, that elevated...
March Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period
Summary We do not expect the FOMC to change the federal funds rate or alter its current pace of balance sheet runoff at its upcoming meeting on March 19-20. Since the Committee last met, the U.S. inflation data have come in a bit stronger than expected, while the...
Will BoJ Take Interest Rates Out of Negative Territory?
Investors assign nearly 50% chance for a March BoJ hike Wage negotiations set to conclude with strong pay hikes Recession is avoided, inflation reaccelerates The BoJ meets on Tuesday at 02:30 GMT March hike speculation intensifies The yen staged a strong recovery last...
GBP/USD Shrugs as UK Economy Shows Slight Growth
The British pound is drifting on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2784, down 0.06%. UK GDP expands 0.2% in January It wasn’t a spectacular rebound but the UK economy showed some slight improvement, with GDP rising 0.2% m/m in January. This...
Gold: Correction is Fuel for Growth
Gold lost over 1% on Tuesday, its first daily decline after nine days of gains, six of which were all-time highs. Signs of consolidation were already evident on Monday and Tuesday, which began with a moderate decline, accelerated by the release of US inflation data....
XAUUSD: In Bearish Correction With Key Levels on H4
Bullish scenario: Intraday buys above 2160.00 with TP: 2171 and TP2: 2177, with S.L. below 2155.00 or at least 1% of account capital*. Apply trailing stop. Bearish scenario: Sells below 2177 with TP1: 2150, TP2: 2142, and 2126 with S.L. above 2185 or at least 1% of...
Yen Back Under Pressure, Copper Surges
Yen declined notably during the European session and stays weak as markets enter into US session. The selloff comes in the wake of rebound in European and US benchmark yields. Despite positive news from Japan, where large corporations have committed to significant...
AUD/USD: Starts to Regain Traction After Shallow Pullback
AUDUSD is holding within a narrow range around 0.6600 handle on Wednesday, after the pullback in past three days started to run out of steam. Tuesday’s long-legged Doji signaled indecision and hinting that corrective phase might be close to the end, as picture on...
NIESR forecasts 0.3% UK GDP growth in Q1
NIESR forecast UK GDP to grow by 0.3% in Q1, aligns with a pattern of “low, but stable economic growth,” suggesting a potential “turning point” for the nation after slipping into a technical recession in the latter half of 2023. The forecast comes with a critical...
EURGBP Starts to Take a Bullish Shape
EURGBP gets rejected near 50-day SMA after rebound Market structure develops into a bullish double bottom pattern Buyers need a rally above 0.8577 to dominate EURGBP could not surpass its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.8553 on Tuesday. However, the...
Eurozone industrial production falls -3.2% mom in Jan, EU down -2.1% mom
Eurozone industrial production fell -3.2% mom in January, much worse than expectation of -1.0% mom. Production increased by 2.6% for intermediate goods, increased by 0.5% for energy, decreased by -14.5% for capital goods, decreased by -1.2% for durable consumer goods,...
Nikkei (NKD_F) Elliott Wave View: Reacted from the Blue Box
Nikkei NKD_F ended an impulse structure at 40565 high and we called wave 3 and the index started a wave 4 pullback. Down from wave 3, wave (i) ended at 40315 and wave (ii) ended at 40465. Wave (iii) lower ended at 39665. Rally in wave (iv) ended at 39895. The market...
GBP/USD Recovers While EUR/GBP Aims More Upsides
GBP/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 1.2745 zone. EUR/GBP is gaining pace and might extend its rally above the 0.8550 zone. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today The British Pound is attempting a recovery above the 1.2780 zone against...
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Inflation Data
As of Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair is hovering near 1.0925 after experiencing a volatile session, with expectations for a more subdued week ahead. Recent statistical data highlighted higher-than-expected inflation in the US for February, prompting adjustments to...
ECB’s Kazaks: Inflation dragon nearly defeated, rate cuts on horizon
ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks likened the fight against inflation to battling a dragon, stating in a blog post, “The dragon of inflation is pinned to the ground, a little more and it will be defeated.” This vivid metaphor reflects a growing confidence...
Gold Advances Again After Rebound Off 2,150
Gold prices rebounded off the 2,150 support level after creating a bearish correction from the strong rally towards the fresh all-time high of 2,195 on Friday in the 4-hour chart. The technical oscillators are showing some contradicting signs as the MACD is losing...
USDJPY Stuck Inside a Key Range
USDJPY trades sideways in anticipation of next week’s key events USDJPY’s correction halted a tad above the 200-day SMA Momentum indicators support the bearish trend but with less conviction USDJPY is trying to record a green candle today as it tests the resistance...
FX option expiries for 13 March 10am New York cut
There are some large ones to take note of for today, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0920-40 region. Those expiries are likely to help keep price action more compact in the session ahead, as traders continue to digest the post-CPI...
Yen Slightly Firmer on Wage Growth Prospects, Dollar Rally Capped
In today’s subdued Asian session, the currency markets saw minimal movement, with most major pairs and crosses gyrating within yesterday’s range. Japanese Yen managed to carve out modest gain, buoyed by optimistic remarks and tangible actions related to wage growth...
A Weak Dollar Is the Driver of Price Records for NASDAQ-100, BTC/USD, XAU/USD
Financial market participants expect an easing of the Fed’s monetary policy. The prospect of lower rates puts pressure on the value of the dollar, which in turn pushes up dollar-denominated assets. This contributed to the setting of record highs: → The price of...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2784; (P) 1.2825; (R1) 1.2855; More… GBP/USD’s retreat from 1.2892 extends lower today. But still, further rally will remain in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2746) holds. On the upside, above 1.2892 will resume larger rise from 1.2063 and...
US: Core Inflationary Pressures Were (Again) Hotter Than Expected in February
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month (m/m) in February, in line with the consensus forecast. On a twelve-month basis, CPI inched up to 3.2% (from 3.1% in January). Energy prices rose 2.3% m/m, largely driven by an uptick in gasoline prices (+3.8%...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0911; (P) 1.0929; (R1) 1.0944; More… EUR/USD’s retreat from 1.0980 extends slightly lower today but intraday bias stays neutral first. Further rise would remain in favor as long as 1.0797 support holds. Fall from 1.1138 could have completed at...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8754; (P) 0.8775; (R1) 0.8794; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point, and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8741 will argue that the whole rebound from 0.8332 might have completed, and bring deeper...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.57; (P) 146.87; (R1) 147.25; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole rally from...
February CPI: FOMC Still Searching for Confidence
Summary The February consumer price data came in a touch stronger than expected. The headline CPI increased 0.4% in the month, led by higher gasoline prices (+3.8%). Excluding food and energy prices, core inflation also registered 0.4%. However, the unrounded 0.36%...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Sticky. There’s no better way to describe today’s US CPI print. Headline and core inflation rose by 0.4% M/M in February. Both are in line with forecast, given that core CPI actually increased by 0.358% (vs 0.3% forecast). Annual readings increased for the top...
US 100 Stock Index at Risk of Double Top
US 100 stock index forms bearish structure The market could balance selling forces above 17,800 The US 100 stock index (cash) seems to have formed a bearish double top pattern within a rising channel and around the peak area of 18,338. The bears will have to...
Dollar Hesitates after Stronger than Expected CPI, Sterling Lower on Job Data
Dollar saw only a temporary uplift from stronger-than-expected CPI figures from the US. The greenback reverted to pre-release levels, while stock futures rebounded. Traders appeared to be refraining from taking decisive bets. This reaction suggests that the inflation...
UK’s Slowing Wage Growth Drop Crumbs to BoE’s Doves
The British Pound is losing ground against the US Dollar for the second day in a row as pressure mounts on fresh UK employment data. Data for February showed a rise in Claimant Count by 16.8K – the biggest since April last year. Overall, a moderate growth trend has...
US CPI rises to 3.2% yoy in Feb, CPI core down to 3.7% yoy, both above expectations
US CPI rose 0.4% mom in February, matched expectations. CPI core (ex-food and energy) rose 0.4% mom, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Food index was unchanged whole energy index rose 2.3% mom. Over the 12-month period, headline CPI accelerated from 3.1% yoy to 3.2% yoy,...
USDJPY: Samurai Weighing the Next Move
USDJPY is bouncing back after five trading sessions where it fell by a cumulative 2.5%. On daily timeframes, the pair’s subsequent move after the pause allows us to determine further medium-term trends. The weakening of the dollar accompanied the pair’s decline since...
EUR/JPY Price Forecast – Technical Analysis Outlook
Next week, markets await the Bank of Japan’s policy rate, monetary policy statement, and press conference, market participants are speculating whether the BOJ will raise interest rates for the first time since 2007. Last week, the Yen appreciated by 1.85% against the...
Nikkei 225 Technical: At Risk of Shaping a Multi-Week Corrective Decline
Recent rapid gains seen in the Nikkei 225 are likely to be attributed to the highly anticipated positive outcome of Japan’s annual wage negotiations results. The expected increase in wage growth for FY 2024/2025 may have already been fully priced in by the Japanese...
GBP/USD Loses Ground on Soft Employment Report
The British pound has extended its losses on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2799, down 0.26%. UK job market slows down The UK labor market has remained resilient despite elevated interest rates but is showing signs of cracks, based on...
Japanese Yen Weakens After Five Sessions of Gains
The USD/JPY pair has begun to rise, reaching 147.33. This shift follows five consecutive sessions of yen appreciation without interruption. Firstly, the US dollar has halted its rapid decline and shows signs of strengthening. This shift has led to a “pause” in the...
EURUSD in the Middle of 2020-2022 Downtrend
EURUSD trades neutral as US CPI inflation data loom Short-term upleg intact but risks remain below 1.0968 EURUSD has been capped below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-2022 downtrend at 1.0945 since Friday’s flash spike halted near the 1.0980 level and around...
EURJPY Drops Below Ascending Channel
EURJPY descends below ascending channel But 50-day SMA prevents further retreats Momentum indicators are tilted to the downside EURJPY has been in a steady advance since December 2023, peaking at the 2024 high of 163.70 on February 27. Since then, the pair has been...
Sterling Loses Ground on Just-Below Consensus Labour Market Data
Markets Friday’s bearish engulfing pattern at record levels for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq (potential short term trend reversal) met with some more weakness in futures trading and at the opening bell, but follow-up losses remained contained to 0.11% and 0.41%...
FX option expiries for 12 March 10am New York cut
There are a few decent-sized ones for today but none of which should have much of any influence on price action. European trading will be more of a waiting room for the US CPI data later in the day. As such, overall dollar sentiment is likely to be more muted in the...
Yen Retreats as FM Tempers Inflation Optimism; Market Awaits US CPI and UK Wage Insights
Yen weakened broadly in Asian session today, reversing some of its robust since the previous week. This shift in momentum comes amid tempered expectations for an imminent BoJ rate hike at next week’s meeting. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki’s comments that...
Bitcoin’s New Highs and BNB’s Revival
Market picture Bitcoin’s record highs support the accelerated recovery of the crypto market. Its capitalisation reached $2.69 trillion (+1.6% in 24 hours), 10% below the record high of $2.97 trillion in November 2021. Extreme greed remains the driver of the crypto...
Dow Futures (YM_F) : Buying The Dips At The Blue Box Area
Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a look at the Elliott Wave charts charts of Dow Jones Futures published in members area of the website. As our members know YM_F has recently made pull back that has unfolded as Elliott Wave Zig Zag...
EUR/USD Hits 8-Week High – Action Forex
The euro is trading above USD 1.09, hitting its strongest point since mid-January on Friday, helped by news from both the US and Europe. Friday’s news showed that the US labor market is weakening: → The change in employment in the non-farm sector showed an increase in...
Japanese Yen Rally Continues as GDP Ticks Higher
The Japanese yen continues to make inroads against the US dollar. In Monday’s European session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.54, down 0.35%. The yen notched its fourth straight winning day on Friday and surged 2% last week. Japan’s GDP revised upwards to 0.1% Japan’s GDP...
Japanese Yen Surges to Monthly High as Economy Shows Signs of Growth
The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar on Monday, reaching a month-long peak following the release of statistics indicating Japan’s return to economic growth in Q4 2023. This development effectively ends the previously declared technical recession....
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.33; (P) 147.23; (R1) 147.96; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside and outlook is unchanged. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole rally from...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8743; (P) 0.8764; (R1) 0.8797; More…. Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8741 will argue that the whole rebound from 0.8332 might have completed, and bring deeper...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2809; (P) 1.2852; (R1) 1.2902; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first with current retreat. Some consolidations would be seen below 1.2892 temporary top first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0911; (P) 1.0946; (R1) 1.0974; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations would be seen below 1.0980 temporary top first. But further rise would remain in favor as long as 1.0797 support holds. Fall...
XAU/USD: Gold Consolidating After 4.6% Advance Last Week
Bulls are taking a breather and consolidating within a narrow range on Monday, just under new all-time high ($2195) and psychological $2200 barrier. The yellow metal continues to shine (advanced 4.6% last week, in the biggest weekly gain since the second week of March...
Ethereum (ETHUSD) : Buying The Dips At The Blue Box Area
Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a look at the Elliott Wave charts charts of ETHUSD published in members area of the website. As our members know Ethereum has given us 3 waves pull back recently that found buyers right at the Blue...
Yen Dominates Quiet Markets, Bitcoin Achieves Record High
Yen continues to stand out as the strongest currency in today’s relatively subdued markets, supported by anticipations of an imminent rate hike by BoJ next week. Swiss Franc and US Dollar are trailing behind in strength, indicating a preference for safer assets....
Bitcoin breaks 72k, regulatory nod and ETF inflows propel
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has once again captured the market’s attention as it makes new record high above 72k mark today. This surge follows the UK Financial Conduct Authority decision to greenlight the creation of cryptocurrency debt instruments on financial...
USD/JPY: Descends Further on Diverging Fed/BOJ Policy Outlook
USDJPY continues to trend lower as dollar was deflated by growing bets for Fed’s rate cut in coming months, while yen rallies on strong signals that the Bank of Japan could start raising interest rates this month, with scenario being boosted by solid Q4 GDP data,...
ECB’s Kazimir advocates for June rate cut, citing alive and kicking inflation risks
In a statement today, ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir highlighted his preference delivering the first rate cut in June. Emphasizing the persistent nature of upside inflation risks, Kazimir pointed to factors such as workers’ pay, energy prices, fiscal...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.26; (P) 161.22; (R1) 161.82; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is back on the downside with breach of 160.54 temporary low. Fall from 163.70 is resuming to 38.2% retracement of 153.15 to 163.70 at 159.66. Sustained break there will indicate that...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.45; (P) 189.08; (R1) 189.78; More….. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 188.22 will resume the decline from 191.29 to 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 191.29 at 186.33. Sustained break there will raise...
US 500 Cash Index in the Red Again
US 500 index trades lower after recording a new all-time high The pace of the rally remains aggressive but euphoria dominates Bears continue to closely monitor the stochastic oscillator’s movements The US 500 cash index is edging lower again today after recording a...
Gold Marches to Consecutive All-Time Highs
Gold advances sharply after claiming 50-day SMA Generates consecutive record highs in recent sessions Momentum indicators flag overbought conditions Gold has been in a steep uptrend following its profound break above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), posting a...
Gold Hits Record as Net Long Positions Jump
The US economy added 275K new nonfarm jobs last month, significantly more than around 200K new job additions penciled in by analysts. But happily, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9% and wages grew slower than expected on a yearly basis and were almost...
More Whispers on BoJ Considering Scrapping Yield Curve Control
Markets Vocal ECB members provided core bonds with some early momentum on Friday. Especially ECB Villeroy gave some support by suggesting that an April rate cut is still in play less than 24 hours after ECB Lagarde actually ruled that scenario out at the ECB’s...
FX option expiries for 11 March 10am New York cut
There are a couple of decent-sized ones for EUR/USD but they are layered across a slight range. As such, the absence of one large expiry in particular is likely to offer little pull to price action on the day. In any case, we are seeing more of a muted tone in markets...
Yen Strengthens on Recession Avoidance, Dollar and Sterling Await Data-Driven Clarity
Yen rises broadly in Asian session today, lifted by economic data indicating Japan’s narrow escape from recession last year. This economic turnaround, while not directly influencing BoJ decision on interest rates decision next week, certainly does not obstruct the...
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: A Bad Week for the Dollar The past week was dominated by the European Central Bank (ECB)’s meeting on Thursday, 7 March. As anticipated, the pan-European regulator decided to maintain its current monetary policy, leaving the interest rate unchanged at 4.50%....
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.6742 last week but fell sharply since then. Immediate focus is now on 1.6450 support this week. Decisive break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.6127 has completed with three waves up to 1.6742 already. Near term outlook will be...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP stayed in range of 0.8497/8577 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside decisive break of 0.8491/7 support zone will confirm larger down trend resumption and target 0.8464 projection level first....
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s fall from 163.70 extended lower to 160.54 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 160.54 will target 38.2% retracement of 153.15 to 163.70 at 159.66. Sustained break there will indicate...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY fell to 188.22 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 188.22 will resume the decline from 191.29 to 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 191.29 at 186.33. Sustained break there will raise the...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD fell sharply to 1.3419 last week but quickly recovered to close above 1.3439 support. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.3419 and sustained trading below 1.3439 will argue that rebound from 1.3176 has completed as a...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF fell to 0.8728 last week but recovered to close above 0.8741 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8741 will argue that the whole rebound from 0.8332 might have completed, and bring deeper fall to 0.8550...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY fell sharply to as low as 146.47 last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole rally...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0694 extended to as high as 1.0980 last week. The development suggests that fall from 1.1138 has completed as a correction to rise from 1.0447. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 1.1138 first. On the downside, below...
Dollar Dives, Yen Soars, A Week of Divergent Fortunes
Dollar and Yen had contrasting fortune last week, responding to divergent central bank expectations. Dollar found itself as the week’s worst performer, a reflection of solidified expectations for Fed’s first rate cut in June, reinforced by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD broke through 1.2826 resistance to resume the whole rally from 1.2063. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.2036 to 1.2826 from 1.2517 at 1.3005. On the downside, below 1.2800 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first....
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6442 resumed last week and hit as high as 0.6666. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 0.6877 to 0.6442 at 0.6707 next. Sustained trading above there will argue rise from 0.6442 is probably resuming...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF edged higher to 0.9630 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 0.9510 support holds, further rally is still expected. On the upside, break of 0.9630 will resume the rise from 0.9252 and target 161.8%...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8757; (P) 0.8793; (R1) 0.8813; More…. Immediate focus is now on 0.8741 support in USD/CHF. Decisive break there will argue that whole rebound from 0.8332 has completed at 0.8891. Deeper fall would then be seen back to 0.8550 support next....
U.S. Inflation, Spending Data Will Help Set Fed Rate Cut Expectations
U.S. inflation numbers will be in the spotlight on Tuesday as U.S. Federal Reserve officials consider when it might be appropriate to begin lowering interest rates. Inflation pressures eased significantly last year largely without the economic pain that was feared...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: G10 Central Banks Sitting Tight
Summary United States: Labor Market Cooling but Far from Cold With fresh updates on a variety of indicators, particularly those associated with the labor market, the past week’s performance continued to help shape the narrative heading into the March FOMC meeting....
The Weekly Bottom Line: A Busy Week in Washington
U.S. Highlights The U.S. economy added 275k jobs in February, but job gains in the prior two months were revised down significantly and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. In his testimony before Congress this week, Federal Reserve Chair Powell noted that...
Summary 3/11 – 3/15
Monday, Mar 11, 2024 Tuesday, Mar 12, 2024 Wednesday, Mar 13, 2024 Thursday, Mar 14, 2024 Friday, Mar 15, 2024 The post Summary 3/11 – 3/15 appeared first on Action Forex.
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.28; (P) 148.34; (R1) 149.08; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole rally from 140.25. In...
US: Job Growth Remained Strong in February, But Unemployment Rate Rises to Two-Year High
Non-farm employment rose by 275k in February, well ahead of the consensus forecast calling for a smaller gain of 200k. However, revisions to the two-prior months were meaningfully lower, subtracting 167k jobs from the previously reported figures. Hiring over the last...
Canada’s Labour Market Adds Jobs in February, Weak Underlying Details
The Canadian labour market added 40.7k positions in February, with full-time employment up 70.6k and part-time employment down 29.9k. The unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% and the participation rate was flat at 65.3%. Employment by industry...
CAD Set to End the Week Higher After a Long Slide
The Canadian dollar gained 0.5% following comments from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday night. The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 5% at its regular meeting and continued its quantitative tightening policy. The Bank of Canada remains concerned about...
US February Employment: The Devil Is in the Details
Summary Another strong beat in payroll growth in February masked other signs of softening in the jobs market. Nonfarm payrolls surpassed consensus expectations for a 200K increase by rising 275K last month, with gains broadly-based across industries. Even with some...
Weekly Focus – Rate Cuts on the Horizon
This week, we published our updated economic projections for the major economies and the Nordics, see Nordic Outlook – Return to Nordic growth, 5 March. While political risks remain high, the global economy is performing better than feared. The Nordic economies are...
Week Ahead – US CPI to Headline Dull Week, May Spoil the Calm
US inflation and retail sales data to take the spotlight as dollar slips UK jobs and GDP numbers coming up too amid recession woes Will markets hold their nerve before the looming central bank storm? Will CPI report cause a sticky problem for the Fed? The US Federal...
Pound Eyes UK Jobs and GDP Data Eyed After Underwhelming Budget
UK labour market in the spotlight as wage pressures remain elevated GDP data to also be watched as UK in technical recession Pound starts March on firmer footing, will the data support further gains? Employment report is due Tuesday and GDP figures on Wednesday at...
Will US CPI Data Come to Dollar’s Rescue?
Weak ISM PMIs and dovish Powell hurt the dollar Investors add to their June rate cut bets US CPI data the next test for the greenback The data is scheduled for Tuesday at 12:30 GMT After Powell’s testimony, investors see June cut a done deal There has been a notable...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets It’s as if some ECB members were inspired by yesterday’s comment by Fed Chair Powell that the US central bank is not far from being confident that the time is right to start dialing back the level of policy restriction. After Fed members recently closed ranks...
Dollar Slump Intensifies as Jobs Report Underwhelms, Gold at New Record
Dollar’s decline accelerated in the early US session, triggered by disappointing non-farm payroll data. Despite a seemingly robust headline job growth figure for February, the substantial downward revision of January’s numbers cast a shadow, marking the overall report...
Canada’s employment grows 40.7k in Feb, unemployment rate ticks up to 5.8%
Canada’s employment rose 40.7k in February, above expectation of 20.0k. Unemployment rate ticked up from 5.7% to 5.8%, matched expectations. Employment rate fell -0.1% to 61.5%. Total hours worked was up 0.3% mom. Average hourly wages rose 5.0% yoy, down from...
EURJPY Has One More Chance Before Bears Take the Lead
EURJPY flips backwards to retest familiar support zone Trend signals lean to the negative side More sellers might show up below 160.70 EURJPY could not sustain its recent recovery attempt above the 162.00 round level, drifting lower to seek shelter near the important...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.82; (P) 161.82; (R1) 163.07; More… EUR/JPY recovered after dipping to 160.54 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, below 160.54 will resume the fall from 163.70 to 38.2% retracement of 153.15 to 163.70 at 159.66. Sustained...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.48; (P) 189.36; (R1) 190.49; More….. GBP/JPY recovered after dipping to 188.22 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, below 188.22 will resume the decline from 191.29 to 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 191.29 at 186.33....
US Payrolls Take Center Stage Today
Markets The ECB left its policy rates and the APP run-down unchanged. In the quarterly forecasts, ECB staff downwardly revised 2024 growth and inflation. Growth this year is expected at 0.6% (vs 0.8% in December), but improvement is still expected in 2025 (1.5%) and...
USDCHF Puts 2024 Uptrend in Test
USDCHF consolidates its 2024 uptrend Short-term bias weakens, but a rebound is still possible USDCHF topped twice around February’s high of 0.8884 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), increasing fears that the 2024 upleg might have peaked, especially...
EUR/USD Technical: At Risk of Minor Mean Reversion Decline as US NFP Looms
EUR/USD has evolved into a short-term uptrend phase as it traded back above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages in the past two days. Yesterday’s swift upmove of +89 pips ex-post ECB increases the risk of a minor mean reversion decline for the EUR/USD. The consensus...
Focus Turns to the US and Nonfarm Payrolls
In focus today In the US, we get the February jobs report today. We see downside risks to the non-farm payrolls and expect employment growth of +180k and see average wages to have risen 0.2% m/m seasonally adjusted. Whilst February data points received thus far have...
AUD/USD and NZD/USD Start Fresh Rally
AUD/USD is gaining pace and recently cleared 0.6600. NZD/USD is also rising and could extend its increase above the 0.6200 resistance zone. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar is moving higher from the 0.6480 zone against the...
ECB officials signal rate cut prospects, eyeing Spring for initial move
Several ECB policymakers vocalized today their anticipation of impending rate cuts, pinpointing spring—likely June—as the probable period for the first reduction. Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau, in an interview with BFM Business television,...
WTI Oil Futures in Fierce Battle with 50.0% Fibo
WTI futures jump above the 200-day SMA But fail to conquer the 50.0% Fibonacci level Oscillators suggest intensifying positive momentum WTI oil futures (April delivery) have been staging a comeback after finding their feet at the 68.00 region in December. However, the...
FX option expiries for 8 March 10am New York cut
There are some large ones on the board but none of which should really matter on the day. The expiries are seen at quite some distance away from prevailing spot levels. As such, trading sentiment is likely to stay more muted in the session ahead as traders are waiting...
Aussie Tops on Risk-On Wave and China Trade Boost, Dollar in Limbo Before NFP
Dollar is continuing its streak as the weakest performer for the week, amid a global surge in risk appetite. Major stock indices around the world, including S&P 500, NASDAQ, DAX, and CAC, have notched new record highs overnight. This wave of optimism has...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.98; (P) 149.53; (R1) 149.97; More… USD/JPY’s decline accelerates to as low as 147.58 so far. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81. Sustained break of 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8798; (P) 0.8828; (R1) 0.8850; More…. USD/CHF’s retreat from 0.8891 extends lower today but stays well above 0.8741 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rally is still in favor. On the upside, break of 0.8891 will resume the whole...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2694; (P) 1.2728; (R1) 1.2765; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 1.2517 should target 1.2826 resistance first. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.2036, and target 61.8% projection of 1.2036...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0856; (P) 1.0885; (R1) 1.0929; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first with current retreat, and some consolidations would be seen below 1.0914 temporary top first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.0795 support...
Canada’s Trade Accounts Register a $496 Million Surplus in January
Canada’s merchandise trade balance flipped back into black ink after December’s deficit, which was revised downward to $863 million. January’s surplus was modest at $496 million, as exports fell less than imports. Exports fell by 1.7% month-on-month (m/m) in January,...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Some of the most remarkable moves ahead of the ECB policy decision were seen in JPY and UK gilts. The former outperformed global peers on increased Bank of Japan policy normalization bets. Events supporting the case succeeded each other quickly. Bloomberg...
ETHUSD Storms to a Fresh 26-month Peak
ETHUSD ascends sharply, touching 4,000 psychological mark Momentum indicators are deep within overbought zones Risk of a pullback is high given the overstretched rally ETHUSD (Ethereum) has been in a steep uptrend, surging to consecutive multi-month highs. However,...
Dollar Index outlook: Dollar Falls Further on Rising Bets for Fed Rate Cut
The dollar index falls to five-week low on Thursday, remaining under increased pressure from growing expectations for June rate cuts. Fed Chair Powell added to expectations by relatively dovish remarks in his testimony on Wednesday, saying that rate cuts will likely...
Research China – A Long and Painful Transition
China continues to struggle with a housing crisis that shows no signs of turning three years into the crisis. We expect it to weigh on the economy again this year. However, the overall economy continues to muddle through with the help of stimulus and industrial...
EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9591; (P) 0.9611; (R1) 0.9634; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen. But further rally is expected as long as 0.9510 support holds. Above 0.9630 will resume the rebound from...
Euro Wavers After ECB Holds Rates, Yen Dominates on Rate Hike Bets
Euro dips notably following ECB’s decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, coupled with downward revision in its inflation forecast. Specifically, ECB now anticipates that headline inflation will return to its target by 2025 and drop below 2% in 2026. However,...
ECB press conference live stream
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(ECB) Monetary policy decisions – Action Forex
The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Since the last Governing Council meeting in January, inflation has declined further. In the latest ECB staff projections, inflation has been revised down, in particular for 2024...
USD/JPY Outlook: Japanese Yen Accelerates Dains vs Dollar on Growing Signals of BoJ Policy Shift
Bears accelerate on Thursday (USDJPY was down 1% in Asian / European session) extending steep fall into third straight day. Fresh weakness broke below initial Fibo support at 148.37 (23.6% of 140.25/150.88 rally, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen) generating initial...
Japanese Wage Data and BoJ Comments Suggest Policy Change Coming Ever Closer
Markets Fed’s Powell’s semi-annual appearance before the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representative didn’t bring more specifics on the start of the Fed easing cycle s. The Fed Chair noticed considerable progress toward reaching the 2% goal and the Fed...
USD/CAD Analysis: Canadian Dollar Strengthens after Bank of Canada Decision
The Bank of Canada has decided to keep interest rates at 5.0% for the fifth time in a row, it announced yesterday, as it continues to look for clearer signs that inflation is moving closer to the bank’s 2% target before considering rate cuts. According to Bank of...
Gold Reaches Unprecedented High Amid Economic Uncertainties
Gold trading reached a significant milestone on Thursday, with prices hitting an all-time high of $2150.00 per Troy ounce. This remarkable surge was propelled by a confluence of factors. These include the decline in US government bond yields, the weakening US dollar,...
AUD/USD Outlook: Aussie Dollar Rallies for the Second Day and Pressure Pivotal Barriers
AUDUSD advances for the second day, underpinned by weaker US dollar and higher iron ore prices. The pair hit two-week high and pressure key barriers at 0.6600 zone (near-term range top / Fibo 38.2% of 0.6871/0.6442 descend / 55DMA). Sustained break here is needed to...
EURUSD Wipes Out Half of January’s Downfall
EURUSD peaks in overbought zone; trend signals still positive ECB rate announcement comes center stage at 13:15 GMT EURUSD resumed its recovery phase on Wednesday, rising as high as 1.0914 – the highest level since January – before easing slightly lower again. The...
USDJPY Correction Picks up speed
USDJPY is edging aggressively lower today and closing in on a key support area This is the bears’ first attempt to push USDJPY significantly below the 150 level Momentum indicators support the current correction USDJPY is recording its third consecutive red candle as...
AUDUSD Surges Within Critical Levels
AUDUSD rebounds off 0.6485 and surpasses downtrend line MACD and RSI indicate more upside pressure AUDUSD has been experiencing a new up leg over the last couple of days, surpassing above the short-term downtrend line and the flat 200-day simple moving average (SMA),...
Gold XAU/USD Sets a Historical Record Exceeding $2160 per Ounce
The previous high was around USD 2,135, but gold rose above USD 2,160 an ounce this morning, reaching its highest level ever, as Treasury yields weakened on hopes that the US Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates. In a speech yesterday, the Fed chief...
FX option expiries for 7 March 10am New York cut
There are a couple of large ones on the board but none of which should have much of any impact on price action for dollar pairs today. Considering the softer greenback, the expiries are seen quite a distance away going into European trading. As such, they aren't...
Dollar’s Slide Deepens, Yen Bolstered by Wage Optimism, Euro Awaits ECB
Dollar fell sharply overnight and the broad-based decline extended into Asian session today. Some analysts attributed this selloff to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary during his Congressional testimony. Powell’s mention of needing “a little bit more data” before...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0840; (P) 1.0858; (R1) 1.0875; More… Immediate focus is now on 1.0887 resistance in EUR/USD with today’s rally. Firm break there will resume whole rise from 1.0694. Also, sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0831) will affirm the case that...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2672; (P) 1.2704; (R1) 1.2736; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside at this point. Further rally would be seen to 1.2826 resistance first. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.2036, and target 61.8% projection of 1.2036...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8817; (P) 0.8843; (R1) 0.8860; More…. USD/CHF is still bounded in range below 0.8891 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally remains in favor as long as 0.8741 support holds. Break of 0.8891 will resume the whole rebound from 0.8332 towards...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.66; (P) 150.11; (R1) 150.51; More… Immediate focus is now on 149.20 support in USD/JPY. Firm break there will suggest that price actions from 150.87 are correcting whole rally from 140.25 at least, with prospect of reversing the whole move....
(BOC) Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening
The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. Global economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter. US GDP growth also slowed...
BoC stands pat, Macklem says still too early for rate cuts
BoC keeps overnight rate unchanged at 5.00% as widely expected. In the prepared remarks for the press conference, Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized that it remains “still too early” for the central bank to contemplate reduction in the policy interest rate. Governor...
BoC Holds Rates Steady in March With Dovish Lean
The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting, extending a pause that started after the last hike in July last year. Softer inflation data in January made sure that no hiking bias (dropped in January) would reappear. BoC’s key...
Bank of Canada Maintains Interest Rate, No New Guidance on Cuts
The Bank of Canada maintained the overnight rate at 5.0%, while stating that it will continue with Quantitative Tightening (QT). The Bank highlighted the slowing in economic momentum, stating that growth “remained weak and below potential”, while emphasizing that...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Yesterday’s risk correction on Wall Street didn’t spill to European dealings with key indices adding up to 0.5%. January EMU retail sales barely grew (0.1% M/M vs 0.2% consensus), but obviously didn’t impact trading ahead of tomorrow’s ECB gathering....
USD/JPY: Falls Below 150.00 on Growing Expectations for BoJ Rate Hike in March
USDJPY dips below 150 support and is on track for clear break lower after the pair was hanging above this level for more than two weeks. Yen gained traction on signals may decide to start raising interest rates, with the most optimistic BOJ policymakers seeing chances...
Dollar and Yields Downturn Continues, Fed Chair Powell Offers No Respite
Dollar is trading broadly lower as markets enter into US session, with minimal backing from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks for his Congressional testimony. Instead, the currency’s weakest is accentuated by extended drop in treasury yields and slightly...
Fed Powell stands firm: No rate cuts without greater confidence
In his semiannual Congressional testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks highlighted the necessity for Fed to await “greater confidence” in inflation’s sustainable movement towards 2 % target before considering any reduction in policy rates. Powell...
US ADP employment rises 140k in Feb, gains remain solid
US ADP private employment rose 140k in February, below expectation of 140k. By sector, goods-producing jobs rose 30k while service-providing jobs rose 110k. By establishment size, small companies added 13k jobs, medium companies added 69k, large companies added 61k....
Bitcoin Spooked by Highs, Ethereum Still Climbing
Market picture The cryptocurrency market is building capitalisation towards the 24-hour level, but it’s a relatively modest +0.6% to $2.51 trillion. That’s close to, but still below Tuesday’s highs. Bitcoin briefly topped $69K on Tuesday, setting a new all-time high,...
Canadian Dollar Flat Ahead of BOC Meeting
The Canadian dollar is trading quietly on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3580, down 0.08% On the economic calendar, the Bank of Canada holds its rate meeting. The US will release JOLTS Job Openings, which is expected to tick lower to...
NZDUSD Stuck in a Rectangle Pattern
NZDUSD gets rejected after claiming 50-day SMA But the decline meets strong support at 200-day SMA Oscillators remain in their negative territories NZDUSD had been in a downtrend since its rejection at 0.6373, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the...
Gold Near All-Time High; What’s Next?
Gold’s impressive appreciation stabilizes near record high The bulls might take a break, but stay in play above 2,100 Gold bulls staged a comeback with a bang, driving the price vertically as high as 2,141 on Tuesday. This is marginally below December’s record high of...
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Eyes More Gains, USD/CHF Could Rally
EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.0828 resistance. USD/CHF declined and now struggling below the 0.8860 resistance. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today The Euro rallied after it broke the 1.0828 resistance against the US Dollar. There...
Eurozone retail sales rises 0.1% mom in Jan, EU up 0.3% mom
Eurozone retail sales volume rose 0.1% mom in January, matched expectations. The volume of retail trade increased for food, drinks, tobacco by 1.0%, decreased for non-food products (except automotive fuel) by -0.2%, increased for automotive fuel in specialised stores...
Dollar Index in Limited Range Ahead of Key Economic Events
The dollar index holds in red but within a narrow range in early Wednesday, as traders reduce speed ahead of today’s key events, US labor data and the speech of Fed Chair Powell. Weaker than expected US services PMI in February, released on Tuesday, added to negative...
IfW slashes 2024 German growth forecast to 0.1% due to multiple challenges
Kiel Institute for the World Economy significantly downgraded its growth expectations for German economy, projecting a mere 0.1% increase in 2024, a sharp downward revision from its previous forecast of 0.9%. Slight improvement is anticipated in 2025, with growth...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.29; (P) 190.69; (R1) 191.06; More….. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and range trading continues. Corrective pattern from 191.29 could still extend. Break of 188.02 minor support will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to...
Record-Breaking Gold Amid Falling US Yields, Eyes Set on Fed Powell and BoC
Dollar faced some selling pressure overnight, as dragged down by the sharp decline in the 10-year treasury yield. Despite this, the impact on the greenback was relatively contained, thanks to significant pullbacks in major stock indices, which provided a cushion...
FX option expiries for 6 March 10am New York cut
There are a couple of big ones to watch out for on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at around the 1.0840 to 1.0875 levels. The layers of expiries there could keep price action more sticky on the session, that especially with little else to work...
Japanese Yen Yawns as Tokyo Core CPI Jumps
The Japanese yen is drifting on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.44, down 0.05%. Tokyo rises 2.5% as expected Today’s release of Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes fresh food and is considered Japan’s important inflation indicator, had no effect...
AUD/USD Mid-Day Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6499; (P) 0.6517; (R1) 0.6528; More… Intraday bias in AUD/USD is back on the downside with break of 0.6486 temporary low. Retest of 0.6442 support should be seen next. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.6870 for 61.8% projection of...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.05; (P) 150.31; (R1) 150.78; More… USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 150.87 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 150.87 will resume the rise from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. On the...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8811; (P) 0.8852; (R1) 0.8874; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as range trading continue below 0.8891. Further rally is in favor as long as 0.8741 support holds. Break of 0.8891 will resume the whole rebound from 0.8332 towards...
US ISM services falls to 56.2, employment back in contraction
US ISM Services PMI fell from 53.4 to 52.6 in February, worse than expectation of 53.0. Looking at some details, business activity/production rose from 55.8 to 57.2. New orders rose from 55.0 to 56.1. Employment fell from 50.5 to 48.0, back in contraction. Prices fell...
GBP/USD upside breakout after US ISM services miss
Dollar falls broadly after slightly lower than expected ISM Services PMI reading. But more importantly, employment component was back in contraction while price component dipped notably. GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.2517 resumed by breaking through 1.2708 resistance. The...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets It was a drawn-out stretch towards the publication of the US services ISM today (read about it down below). Core bonds in the meantime gained ground with US Treasuries in particular shaking off yesterday’s Bostic’s comments. The Atlanta Fed president warned...
ISM Shows Services Sector Expansion Continued in February
The ISM Services index slipped to 52.6 in February from 53.4 in January, just shy of the 53.0 consensus expectation. However, growth did become more widespread, with 14 of 18 industries reporting growth for the month – up from ten in January. The business activity...
EUR/USD Shows Strength Amid Anticipation of Key Events
The EUR/USD pair is exhibiting resilience, navigating around the 1.0850 mark on Tuesday, following a sequence of rises in the previous two sessions. The current market atmosphere is one of cautious optimism, as participants brace for significant upcoming events,...
XAU/USD: Gold Retests Record High, Bulls Likely to Take a Breather Before Resuming
Steep rally extends into the fifth straight day on Tuesday, after the metal closed above $2100 level for the first time in history on Monday. Strong demand for safe haven bullion was sparked by further drop in the activity in US manufacturing sector and persistently...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2659; (P) 1.2683; (R1) 1.2716; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral as it’s staying in range below 1.2708. On the upside, break of 1.2708 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0840; (P) 1.0853; (R1) 1.0870; More… Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.0887 and sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0831) will affirm the case that fall from 1.1138 has...
Aussie Falters While Dollar Sees Slight Uptick
The picture is pretty much the same through Asian and early part of European session, with the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, alongside the Canadian Dollar, persisting as the day’s underperformers. Swiss Franc has also found itself under pressure, particularly...
UK PMI services finalized at 53.8, rising inflationary pressures
UK PMI Services was finalized at 53.8 in February, down from January’s 54.3. PMI Composite was finalized at 53.0, up fractionally from January’s 52.9. Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, highlighted the trend as evidence that UK...
Gold: Not Yet Overheated
Gold is primed for a substantial move, second only to cryptocurrencies in amplitude but lacking their enduring strength. At the end of last week, we saw a swift technical completion of a bullish pattern. Sometimes, gold avoids volatility for weeks, but at certain...
Eurozone PPI down -0.9% mom, -8.6% yoy in Jan
Eurozone PPI fell -0.9% mom, -8.6% yoy in January, below expectation of -0.1% mom, -0.8% yoy. For the month, PPI decreased by -0.2% for intermediate goods, -2.9% for energy, -0.2% for durable consumer goods, increased by 0.6% for capital goods and by 0.3% for...
EURJPY Recovers from Mild Pullback
EURJPY storms back higher towards 2024 peaks Momentum indicators weaken but remain positive EURJPY has been in a steady advance since December 2023, peaking at the 2024 high of 163.70 on February 27. Despite experiencing a pullback in the past week, the pair found its...
Beijing Tries to Convey Message of Confidence, Markets Not Impressed
Markets In a session deprived of data, US yields yesterday easily reversed a big part of Friday’s decline post a weaker than expected US manufacturing ISM. The move started early in US dealings. Comments from Atlanta Fed president Bostic only confirmed recent guidance...
Eurozone PMI services finalized at 50.2, two important insights for ECB
Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 50.2 in February, up from January’s 48.7, a 7-month high. PMI Composite was finalized at 49.2, up from January’s 47.9, an 8-month high. Country-specific data revealed varying degrees of economic activity, with Ireland leading the...
USD/JPY: Bullish Bias Above 150, Key US Data Eyed for Fresh Signals
USDJPY edged lower in late Asian / early European trading on Tuesday, following release of Tokyo CPI data which showed inflation jumping in February (2.5% from 1.8% previous month) and adding to expectations that the Bank of Japan may start to tighten its monetary...
Market Focusing on Speech of Federal Reserve Head
Despite the abundance of fundamental data of the past trading week, the main currency pairs continue to trade in rather narrow flat corridors. Thus, the US dollar/yen currency pair is trading above 150.00, from time to time testing the figure 149, buyers of the...
Euro Area and Nordic Countries to Gradually Move Out of Their Current Stagnation
In focus today This morning we published our Nordic Outlook with updated economic forecasts. We expect the euro area and the Nordic countries to gradually move out of their current stagnation or mild recession (in Denmark’s case, stagnation outside pharmaceuticals)....
Nikkei’s Resilience Contrasts With Hong Kong’s Setback, US ISM Services watched
Market sentiment was clearly mixed in Asian session today, highlighted by Nikkei’s remarkable resilience and Hong Kong’s stocks’ downturn. The day commenced with Nikkei momentarily succumbing to profit taking pressure, dropping below 40k mark after Tokyo’s CPI was...
Eurozone Sentix rises to -10.5, but no classic spring revival
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence March climbed from -12.9 to -10.5 in March, slightly surpassing expectations of -10.8. This increment marks the fifth consecutive rise, achieving its highest level since April 2023. Current Situation Index also saw an increase for...
WTI Oil Price Reaches 4-month High Against the Backdrop of OPEC+ Decision
On Friday, the price of a barrel of WTI crude oil exceeded USD 80 per barrel due to the decision to continue the policy of reducing oil production by OPEC+ countries. Saudi Arabia said on Sunday it would extend oil production cuts until June to “maintain stability and...
US 500 Battles With 123.6% Fibonacci
US 500 cash index extends its series of record highs Tests 123.6% Fibonacci extension of its 2022 downtrend Oscillators look overbought, increasing risk of a pullback The US 500 stock index (cash) has been staging an impressive rally since it bottomed out in October...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8811; (P) 0.8852; (R1) 0.8874; More…. USD/CHF rebounds notably after drawing support from 55 4H EMA, but stays below 0.8891 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rally is in favor as long as 0.8741 support holds. Break of...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.79; (P) 150.26; (R1) 150.56; More… USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 150.87 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 150.87 will resume the rise from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. On the other hand,...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2615; (P) 1.2640; (R1) 1.2679; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.2708 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets US yields softened going into the weekend as a poor manufacturing ISM triggered a short squeeze. Today, the calendar was almost empty. However, with several key events/data scheduled later this week, markets didn’t draw any firm conclusions from Friday’s...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0808; (P) 1.0825; (R1) 1.0857; More… EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.0887 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 1.0887 and sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0831) will affirm the case that fall from 1.1138...
Did Oil Find Its Way Up?
Oil is correcting 0.2% on Monday after closing almost 2% higher on Friday and peaking at 3.4%. WTI’s high of $80.3, last seen in November 2023, and a consolidation above $79 would indicate a break of long-term horizontal resistance, something the bulls have failed to...
Bitcoin Resumes Rally After Mild Consolidation, Record High in Focus
Bitcoin advanced over 4% during early trading on Monday, signaling bullish continuation after a brief consolidation in past few sessions. Fresh rise above 65000 (the highest since November 2021) confirms very strong bids and very low supply, despite negative technical...
Swiss Franc Pressured after After Fleeting Bounce; Bitcoin Surges Above 65k
Swiss Franc bounced briefly earlier today, following release of slightly stronger than expected Swiss CPI data, only to see those gains quickly dissipate. With inflation levels persistently below SNB target, market consensus continues to lean towards an interest rate...
Two Drivers of Crypto Growth
Market picture Crypto market capitalisation rose 5% in 24 hours to $2.44 trillion, driven by extreme greed. The crypto market had a higher capitalisation for a few days in May and October-December 2021, but that was in an ageing bull market compared to a relatively...
Japanese Yen Steady ahead of Tokyo Core CP
The Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.34, up 0.13%. Tokyo Core CPI expected to rise to 2.5% Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI, considered the most important inflation indicator, on Tuesday. The index...
Will Bank of Canada Pave the Way for a Rate Cut after CPI Drop?
Bank of Canada kicks off March round of central bank meetings Dovish tilt is possible after CPI drops back below 3.0% Wednesday’s decision, due 14:45 GMT, may deepen loonie’s losses Progress on inflation The Bank of Canada heads towards its second policy meeting of...
Will NFP Report Confirm Fed’s ‘Higher for Longer’ Mantra?
Market scales back rate cut expectations Inflation is not cooling as fast as expected Powell testifies before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday Spotlight to turn to NFP report on Friday at 13:30 GMT Investors get closer to the Fed’s dot plot At its latest gathering,...
Could Tokyo CPI Open the Door to BoJ Policy Normalization?
Tokyo CPI report kicks off a very interesting period for the BoJ Earnings data under the microscope until outcome of wage talks Yen remains under pressure against the US dollar Tokyo CPI released on Tuesday; average earnings data on Thursday The BoJ is looking for an...
Gold Technical: On the Cusp of a Potential Major Bullish Breakout
Gold (XAU/USD) recorded its highest weekly gain of 2.33% year-to-date on 1 March 2024, and its best weekly return seen in the past three months. Positive technical elements and a softer real US 10-year Treasury yield below 2.15% support a potential major bullish...
XAU/USD: Gold Rises Further After Rallying 2% on Friday
Gold keeps firm tone and trading near new two-month high at the start of the week, after rallying 2% on Friday, in the biggest daily advance since Dec 13. The yellow metal surged after markets got a clearer picture about the US rate outlook, as the latest economic...
Technical Outlook and Review
DXY: The DXY (US Dollar Index) chart currently reflects bullish momentum, indicating a potential scenario of a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance. The 1st support level at 103.87 is recognized as an overlap support, coinciding with the 23.60% Fibonacci...
Gold Rally Pauses at 2,088 After Strong Bullish Move
Gold prices break descending trend line Medium-term trend remains neutral RSI indicates overbought market Gold prices posted an impressive bullish rally in the preceding week, touching the upper boundary of the medium-term trading range at 2,088 and penetrating the...
Nikkei Breaks 40K as Japan’s Capital Spending Fuels Market Optimism
Nikkei surges through 40k mark for the first time ever, standing out in an otherwise subdued Asian session. This index was propelled by Japan’s unexpectedly robust capital spending report for Q4, which significantly bolstered investor confidence. While the surge in...
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Weak Bulls vs. Weak Bears Throughout the past week, EUR/USD has been trading within a narrow channel. News favouring the euro pushed it towards the resistance level at 1.0865, while positive developments for the dollar brought it back to the support level at...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s rally from 0.9252 continued last week and hit as high as 0.9603. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 161.8% projection of 0.9252 to 0.9471 from 0.9304 at 0.9658 next. For now, further rally is expected as long as 0.9510 support holds, in case of...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.6127 resumed last week and edged higher to 1.6692, but retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Current development suggests that whole correction from 1.7062 should have completed with three waves down to 1.6127....
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY dipped to 161.67 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Another decline is mildly in favor as long as 163.70 resistance holds. Below 161.67 will target channel support (now at 161.11). However, firm break of 163.70...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF edged higher to 0.8891 last week but quickly retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor as long as 0.8741 support holds. Break of 0.8891 will resume the whole rebound from 0.8332 towards 0.9243 key resistance....
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY dipped to 149.20 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 150.87 will resume the rise from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. On the other hand, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD stayed in range trading below 1.0887 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week. On the upside, break of 1.0887 and sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0831) will affirm the case that fall from 1.1138 has completed....
Yen Rises on BoJ Rate Speculation, But Gains Muted
Yen ended as the best performer last week amidst intensifying discussions around BoC rate hike, spurred by comments from the central bank’s officials. The anticipation of policy tightening propelled Yen forward, although gains were tempered by uncertainties...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD stayed inside range trading below 1.2708 last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.2708 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 1.2826....
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY retreated to 189.02 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Risk is mildly on the downside as long as 191.29 resistance holds. Firm break of 188.90 resistance turned support will bring deeper fall to 38.2%...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3605 last week but retreated again. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3439 support holds. Break of 1.3605 will resume the rise from 1.3176 and target 100% projection of...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s decline argues that corrective recovery from 0.6442 has completed at 0.6594. But as a temporary low was formed at 0.6486, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 0.6486 will target a retest on 0.6442 first. Firm break there will...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP recovered last week but failed to break through 0.8577 so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Considering bullish convergence condition in D MACD, decisive break of 0.8577 and 55 D EMA (now at 0.8574) will argue that fall from 0.8764 has...
EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9529; (P) 0.9545; (R1) 0.9574; More… EUR/CHF’s rally re-accelerates today and breaks through 0.9575 fibonacci resistance. There is no sign of topping yet and intraday bias stays on the upside. Next target will be 161.8% projection of 0.9252 to...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.24; (P) 149.97; (R1) 150.74; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 150.87 will resume whole rally from 140.25 to retest 151.89/93 key resistance zone. On the other hand, considering bearish...
BoC to Deliver Another Dovish Hold, Unemployment Rate to Tick Higher
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to maintain the overnight rate steady again at its meeting on Wednesday. An announcement on the ending of quantitative tightening is unlikely but we expect that to follow later in April. Over past meetings, the BoC has been...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Economic Growth Continues Despite Downbeat Data
Summary United States: Economic Growth Continues Despite Downbeat Data Economic data were downbeat this week, as downward revisions took some of the shine out of the marquee headline numbers. Durable goods orders declined, consumer confidence took a dip and the PCE...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Coming Off the Boil?
U.S. Highlights January’s personal and income spending report landed just where it was expected to, with the only surprise coming from a bigger than expected lift from nominal personal income growth. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core personal consumption...
Summary 3/4 – 3/8
Monday, Mar 4, 2024 Tuesday, Mar 5, 2024 Wednesday, Mar 6, 2024 Thursday, Mar 7, 2024 Friday, Mar 8, 2024 The post Summary 3/4 – 3/8 appeared first on Action Forex.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8802; (P) 0.8825; (R1) 0.8870; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. With 0.8727 resistance turned support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, above 0.8884 will resume the rise from 0.8332 towards 0.9243...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2598; (P) 1.2640; (R1) 1.2667; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.2708 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0782; (P) 1.0819; (R1) 1.0842; More… No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 1.0887 and sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0832) will affirm the case that fall from 1.1138 has completed....
BoE’s Pill: Interest rate cuts “some way off” pending inflation evidence
BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill suggested in a speech that interest rate cut is still “some way off” in his baseline scenario. He emphasized the need for more “compelling evidence” that the persistent component of UK CPI inflation is is being “squeezed down” towards...
ECB Preview – Policy Normalisation in Sight
Next week, on Thursday 7 March, the ECB is set to take another step in its policy normalisation process, from a restrictive monetary policy stance towards a neutral stance. The new staff projections on growth outlook are expected to be revised lower this year and...
Weekly Focus – Focus Turns to the ECB
Markets were in a waiting mode ahead of the March monetary policy meetings, and the latest round of inflation data did not materially rock the boat. Bond and equity markets remained stable while past weeks’ positive sentiment in FX markets took a breather. Euro Area...
Week Ahead – ECB Decision and US Payrolls to Steal the Show
Nonfarm payrolls and Powell’s testimony will be crucial for US dollar European Central Bank could set the stage for summer rate cuts Bank of Canada decision and UK budget announcement also in focus Dollar braces for US payrolls Riding high on a wave of US economic...
European Central Bank Gravitating Toward A Mid-Year Rate Cut
Summary The Eurozone economy faced a particularly challenging period during the second half of 2023, with the region only narrowly avoiding a technical recession. Given the challenging growth environment, the European Central Bank (ECB) ended its tightening cycle with...
US ISM manufacturing falls to 47.8, 16th month of contraction
US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.1 to 47.8 in February, below expectation of 49.5. Manufacturing sector continued to contract for the 16th month. Looking at some details, new orders fell from 52.5 to 49.2. Production fell from 50.4 to 48.4. Employment fell from...
Fed’s Barkin cautious on rate cuts amid lingering inflation pressures
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin expressed a cautious stance on the prospect of Fed starting to cut interest rates in the near future, citing ongoing inflation pressures as a primary concern. In an interview with CNBC, Barkin emphasized the need for inflation to...
EUR/USD Steady After Eurozone Inflation Dips
Eurozone inflation falls to 2.6% Eurozone unemployment rate drops to record low of 6.4% The euro is calm on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0818, up 0.13%. Eurozone inflation eases to 2.6% Inflation continues its downward trend in the...
Eurozone Inflation Surprises Support Euro, ECB’s Holzmann Urges Patience on Policy
Euro rises broadly today even though gains are so far limited. The common currency is lifted by stronger than anticipated Eurozone inflation figures, which suggests that the path to disinflation may be encountering obstacles. This development could providing...
Time to Take a Closer Look at Altcoins?
Market picture The cryptocurrency market has corrected by 2%, dropping below $2.3 trillion in market capitalisation. Now, this looks like a technical correction, with the biggest coins pulling back from Thursday night’s highs and holding their positions at the start...
Japanese Yen Jumpy After BoJ Member Urges Tighter Policy
Japanese yen falls below 150 BoJ’s Tanaka urges changes to monetary policy US PCE price index falls to 2.4% BoJ’s Tanaka hints at tighter monetary policy After close to two weeks of little movement, the Japanese yen is showing some volatility. The yen climbed as much...
Will GBPJPY Rebound Again? – Action Forex
GBPJPY breaks below key support area after new high Technical signs weaken, but 20-day EMA comes to the rescue again GBPJPY extended its pullback from an eight-and-a-half-year high of 191.30 for the third consecutive day on Thursday to find support around the 20-day...
UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 47.5, impacts of Red Sea crisis continue
UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 47.5 in February, up from January’s 47.0. This marks the highest reading since April 2023, yet the sector has been contracting for 19 consecutive months. Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the impact...
Eurozone CPI slows to 2.6%, core down to 3.1%, both above expectations
Eurozone CPI slowed from 2.8% yoy to 2.6% yoy in February, above expectation of 2.5% yoy. CPI core (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) slowed from 3.3% yoy to 3.1% yoy, above expectation of 2.9% yoy. Breaking down the main components, food, alcohol & tobacco...
Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 46.5, one-year industrial recession not ending yet
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 46.5 in February, down slightly from January’s 46.6. Greece, Ireland, and Spain notably marked significant highs in their manufacturing PMI, with Greece reaching a 24-month high at 55.7, Ireland a 20-month high at 52.2, and...
Nasdaq (NQ) Extending Higher in Impulsive Structure
The short-term Elliott Wave View in the Nasdaq (NQ) suggests that rally from 1.5.2024 low is in progress as a nesting 5 waves impulse. Up from 1.5.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 18121.5 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 17372.75. Internal subdivision of wave ((ii))...
AUDUSD Retreats After Rejection at 200-day SMA
AUDUSD was recovering from its lowest level since November But is on the retreat again as 200-day SMA repels advance Momentum indicators are tilted to the downside AUDUSD had been in a steady decline after peaking at 0.6870 in December, violating both its 50- and...
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Struggles While USD/CAD Aims Higher
GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 1.2600. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for a move above the 1.3580 resistance zone. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2700 resistance zone. There...
FX option expiries for 1 March 10am New York cut
There are just a couple of large ones to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are both for EUR/USD at 1.0800 and 1.0865, which could help to keep price action more limited in the session ahead. However, the euro will be a focus point amid a slew of data releases...
Markets Respond to BoJ’s Dual Tone, Yen Pares Gains While Nikkei Soars
Yen reverses some of yesterday’s gains after cautious comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, which highlighted that Japan is “not there yet” to reach the long-sought-after sustainable inflation rate of 2%. Ueda’s perspective starkly contrasted with the more hawkish...
EURAUD Flies to 3-Month High
EURAUD penetrates the downtrend line RSI and stochastic suggest bearish correction EURAUD skyrocketed to a new three-month high of 1.6693 during yesterday’s session, penetrating the long-term descending trend line to the upside. Currently, the pair is weakening its...
US PCE prices slows to 2.4% yoy in Jan, core PCE down to 2.8% yoy
US personal income rose USD 233.7B or 1.0% mom in January, well above expectation of 0.5% mom. Personal spending rose USD 43.9B or 0.2% mom, matched expectations. Headline PCE price index rose 0.3% mom, matched expectations. Core PCE price index (excluding food and...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0807; (P) 1.0829; (R1) 1.0860; More… EUR/USD recovers mildly in early US session but stays in range below 1.0887. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.0887 and sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0832) will...
U.S. Consumer Spending Opens 2024 on a Modest Note
Personal income grew 1.0% month-on-month (m/m) in January, a sizeable increase from December’s 0.3% gain, and above market expectations for a 0.4% increase. Accounting for inflation and taxes, real personal disposable income was flat on the month relative to 0.2%...
Canada’s GDP Sees Another Below Trend Performance in the Fourth Quarter of 2023
The Canadian economy grew by 0.99% quarter/quarter annualized (q/q) in 2023 Q4, while Q3 was revised higher (-0.5% q/q from -1.1%). Furthermore, the flash estimate for January showed a +0.4% monthly increase. Stripping out external factors, final domestic demand came...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2626; (P) 1.2657; (R1) 1.2693; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as sideway trading continues. On the upside, break of 1.2708 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the upside...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8776; (P) 0.8794; (R1) 0.8803; More…. USD/CHF is still bounded in consolidation from 0.8884 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.8727 resistance turned support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, above 0.8884 will resume the...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.43; (P) 150.64; (R1) 150.91; More… Immediate focus is now on 149.51 minor support in USD/JPY. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 149.51 should confirm short term topping at 150.87. Intraday bias will then be back...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Today’s EMU CPI/US PCE deflators were supposed to provide a reality check as markets recently adapted positions in line with the Fed and the ECB guidance that central banks will (have to) take their time to assess where inflation is really headed for. As...
Dollar Softens Mildly as Inflation Matches Forecasts, Yen Rally Loses Steam
US stock futures bounce while treasury yields weaken following release of January’s PCE inflation data, which showed slowdown in both headline and core inflation rates as anticipated. This development provided some relief to investors, who were concerned that...
US initial jobless claims rises to 215k, above expectation 210k
US initial jobless claims rose 13k to 215k in the week ending February 24, above expectation of 210k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -3k to 212.5. Continuing claims rose 45k to 1905k in the week ending February 17. Four-week moving average of...
Canada’s GDP flat in Dec, up 0.2% qoq in Q4
Canada’s GDP rose 0.2% qoq in Q4, recovering from Q3’s -0.1% decline. Statistics Canada noted that higher exports (up 1.4%) and reduced imports (down -0.4%) fuelled GDP growth, but this was moderated by a decline in business investment. In December, GDP was flat for...
BTCUSD Skyrockets Towards Record Highs
BTCUSD goes parabolic, gaining around 20% since Monday Jumps above 60,000 and is on track to test all-time highs Momentum indicators look extremely overbought BTCUSD (Bitcoin) has experienced an exponential rally since the beginning of the week, which has sent the...
Early Flight to the Moon
Market picture In an impressive surge of more than 7.3% in 24 hours, the crypto market capitalisation reached $2.32 trillion. The crypto market hasn’t been worth this much since late 2021. Back then, it took two months to get from current valuations to a peak of $3...
WTI Oil Futures Restricted in a Bullish Trend
WTI oil futures keep facing constraints on the upside Trend signals endorse the positive trajectory WTI oil futures only marginally surpassed January’s high of 79.28, before closing back within the 78.00 territory and around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the...
Canadian Dollar Hits 10-Week Low Ahead of GDP
The Canadian dollar is drifting on Thursday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3585, down 0.06%. A day earlier, the Canadian dollar dropped below 1.3600 for the first time since March 13. Canada’s GDP expected to expand by 0.8% Canada releases the...
USD/JPY: Eases After Hawkish Comments on BoJ Interest Rates
USDJPY dips below 150 mark in early Thursday’s trading, as yen received fresh boost from BOJ policymaker’s hawkish comments regarding interest rates and month-end position adjustments. Economic data from Japan, released overnight were mixed, as retail sales remained...
USD/JPY Tanks About a Full Yen
Markets Barring an outdated US Q4 GDP and PCE revision there was again not much to inspire markets yesterday. Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Collins and Bostic yielded the known mantra of data dependency and caution against premature cuts. That resulted in muted...
AUDJPY Correction Has Reached Short Term Support Area
The short-term Elliott Wave View in the AUDJPY suggests that the cycle from 01 February 2024 low unfolded in an impulse sequence and shows a bullish sequence supporting more upside. Whereas the rally to 96.92 high ended wave (i), a pullback to 96.18 low ended wave...
Swiss GDP grows 0.3% qoq in Q4, abv exp 0.1% qoq
Switzerland’s GDP grew by 0.3% qoq in Q4, slightly surpassing expectation of 0.1% qoq growth. Despite this modest uptick, the nation faced slight decline in domestic final demand, which fell by -0.3%. This downturn was primarily driven by a significant, broad-based...
EURUSD Remains Stuck Between SMAs
EURUSD trades in a range defined by 50- and 200-day SMAs Momentum indicators are marginally tilted to the upside EURUSD has posted a mild recovery following its pullback from the December high of 1.1138 to the 2024 bottom of 1.0693. However, the pair’s rebound has...
Swiss KOF falls to 101.6 in Feb, rather positive economic signals intact
Swiss KOF Economic Barometer fell from 102.5 to 101.6 in February, below expectation of 102.0. Despite this marginal cooling, KOF maintains an optimistic stance regarding the Swiss economy, asserting that “the rather positive economic signals in Switzerland remain...
March forex seasonals: The tailwinds continue to blow on a few fronts
Over the long haul, there's some alpha to be generated with the help of seasonals but February was also a reminder that momentum and fundamentals trump all. I warned at the start of the month that February was the worst month of the year for the Nasdaq. Well that...
Hawkish BoJ Fuels Yen Surge, Dollar Awaits Crucial PCE Inflation Insights
Japanese Yen rallied broadly in Asian session, energized by hawkish remarks of a BoJ official. These remarks served as a potent reminder to the markets of two critical points: Firstly, BoJ is poised to hike interest rates, buoyed by positive developments in wage...
US goods trade deficit widens to USD -90.2B in Jan
US goods exports rose 0.2% mom to USD 170.42B in January. Goods imports rose 1.1% mom to USD 260.62B. Goods trade deficit widened to USD -90.2B, larger than expectation of -88.1B. Wholesale inventories fell -0.1% mom to USD 896.8B. Retail inventories rose 0.5% mom to...
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3496; (P) 1.3518; (R1) 1.3550; More… USD/CAD’s rally from 1.3176 is resuming today by breaking 1.3585 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 100% projection of 1.3761 to 1.3540 from 1.3357 at 1.3721 next. For now, near term outlook...
US: Economic Resilience Remains on Full Display in Q4 GDP Data, Despite Slight Downward Revision
The second estimate of fourth quarter real GDP was revised down a hair to 3.2% annualized (3.3% prev.), only slightly below consensus expectations for no revision. Under the hood, downward revisions to inventory investment and federal government spending were partly...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.17; (P) 150.44; (R1) 150.81; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading is still continuing. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8776; (P) 0.8794; (R1) 0.8803; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.8884 is still extending. With 0.8727 resistance turned support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, above 0.8884 will resume the...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2665; (P) 1.2681; (R1) 1.2702; More… While GBP/USD dips notably today, downside is held well above 1.2517 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.2708 resistance will indicate that...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0830; (P) 1.0848; (R1) 1.0863; More… EUR/USD dips notably today but stays above 1.0761 minor support. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.0887 and sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0832) will affirm the...
Canada’s GDP to Rebound But Not the Loonie
Canadian economy set to return to growth but remain sluggish Will the Loonie be able to capitalize on any good news? Canadian economy to avoid recession once again The Canadian dollar has barely made any serious progress against other major currencies this year...
Australian Dollar Slides After CPI Stays Steady
The Australian dollar took a hit after Australian inflation was lower than expected. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6493, down 0.78%. CPI holds steady at 3.4% Australia’s inflation rate remained steady in January at 3.4% y/y, unchanged from...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets: Yesterday’s US data (shipments, durable goods orders, house prices, consumer confidence) was mixed and failed to given guidance for (bond) trading. (US) markets over the previous two months reverted to a more neutral positioning, putting themselves in line...
Kiwi Dollar Flies Down – Action Forex
The New Zealand Dollar is down 1.2% since the start of the day on Wednesday due to disappointment with the RBNZ’s actions and comments. The country’s central bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 5.5% and signalled its willingness to keep it at current levels....
Dollar and Safe Havens Surge, Bitcoin Soars Past 60K
Dollar, Yen, and Swiss Franc emerge as the predominant winners as markets enter into US session, amidst a backdrop of mild risk-off sentiment. Nevertheless, momentum of these safe-haven currencies remains relatively tempered, holding off major range breakouts across...
NZ Dollar Slides after RBNZ holds rates
RBNZ holds cash rate at 5.25% New Zealand dollar declines 1.2% The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6095, down 1.22%. Earlier, the New Zealand dollar dropped to a low of 0.6092, its lowest level since...
FX option expiries update for 28 February 2024
Just to provide a better breakdown of the expiries for EUR/USD between 1.0850-65 on the day. But not that it really matters too much considering how price action has been behaving in European trading. Meanwhile, there is an update for tomorrow with large expiries seen...
NZD/USD Accelerates Sharply Lower on Unchanged Policy and More Dovish Than Expected Comments from RBNZ
The Kiwi dollar was sharply down vs its US counterpart (losing 1.1%) in early trading of Wednesday, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged (in line with expectations) but delivered more dovish comments and forward guidance, which sparked...
ECB’s Kazimir on rate cut: June preferred, April a surprise, March a no go
In a Reuters interview, ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir emphasizd a cautious approach toward rate cuts. Kazimir explicitly stated, “There is no reason to rush a rate cut,” pinpointing June as his “preferred date”. “April would surprise me and March is a no...
Eurozone economic sentiment falls to 95.4 in Feb, EU down to 95.4
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 96.1 to 95.4 in February. Employment Expectations Indicator rose from 102.3 to 102.5. Economic Uncertainty Indicator fell from 21.3 to 20.1. Eurozone industry confidence fell from -9.3 to -9.5. Services confidence fell...
Gold Tumbles Below Short-Term Uptrend Line
Gold meets 200-period SMA, which acted as strong support line Stochastic dives to oversold region and MACD falls below trigger line Gold prices are edging lower, beneath a short-term ascending trend line, meeting the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at 2,026.60,...
EURGBP Consolidates above 20-day SMA
EURGBP looks for resistance at 50-day SMA RSI confirms sideways move EURGBP has been consolidating beneath the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which overlaps with the 0.8578 resistance level and the six-month low of 0.8500 since January 18. According to technical...
NZDUSD Drops Aggressively, Prepares to Test a Key Area
NZDUSD is lower today after the RBNZ’s decision to keep rates unchanged It trades a tad above a very busy support area Momentum indicators are possibly preparing to send bearish signals NZDUSD is recording its third consecutive red candle, crashing lower after the...
USDJPY Consolidates Near 3-Month High
USDJPY stuck in a tight range in the past few sessions The pair is within breathing distance from 2023 peak Momentum indicators soften but remain positive USDJPY has been in a steady uptrend since late 2023, forming a V-shaped recovery from its November-December...
GBP/USD: Drops After Repeated Rejections at Daily Cloud Top
Cable dips 0.3% in Asian/early European trading on Wednesday after a multiple failures to clear the top of daily Ichimoku cloud. Long upper shadows on daily candles and narrowing ranges in past few sessions, confirmed significance of cloud top barrier, while diverging...
Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Eye More Upsides
Gold price started a decent increase above the $2,028 resistance level. Crude oil prices are gaining bullish momentum and might rise toward $80.00. Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today Gold price started a decent increase from the $2,015 zone...
FX option expiries for 28 February 10am New York cut
There are some big ones to watch out for, as highlighted in bold. But first, please take note that the expiries for Thursday and Friday are just a tentative indication. The notional amounts could very well differ from what I have from the source, as it has not been...
Kiwi Dives after RBNZ Hold, Dollar Staging a Comeback
New Zealand Dollar fell significantly in today’s Asian session, establishing itself as the day’s most underperforming currency at this point. The decline was sparked by RBNZ’s decision to maintain interest rate at 5.50%, a move that dashed the hopes of a small segment...
Japanese Yen Benefits from Hopes of Change in BoJ Approach
Japanese consumer inflation slowed from 2.6% y/y to 2.2% y/y in January. The data was slightly higher than the expected 2.1%, providing temporary support for the Yen, which rose 0.4% after the release, pushing USDJPY back to 150.10. Prices excluding food slowed to...
Gold (XAUUSD) Macro Forecast: Under Pressure Below 2030
Fundamental Environment The price of gold is rising after a slight previous decline and remains near the high of the last two weeks. This trend is attributed to the weakness of the US dollar, influenced by a new decrease in US Treasury bond yields. Additionally,...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8785; (P) 0.8803; (R1) 0.8819; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.8884 is still in progress. With 0.8727 resistance turned support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, above 0.8884 will resume the...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.39; (P) 150.61; (R1) 150.94; More… Range trading continues in USD/JPY below 150.87 and intraday bias stays neutral. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside,...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2662; (P) 1.2681; (R1) 1.2704; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.2708 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for...
US consumer confidence falls to 106.7, three-month rise interrupted
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence fell from 110.9 to 106.7 in February, below expectation of 114.9. Present Situation Index fell from 154.9 to 147.2. Expectation Index fell from 81.5 to 79.8. “The decline in consumer confidence in February interrupted a...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Japanese inflation numbers for January this morning kicked off a moderately interesting eco calendar for today. A higher-than-expected outcome combined with base effects ready to push up the February reading rekindled expectations for the BoJ to ditch its...
US Durable Goods Orders Slumped
US durable goods orders decreased 6.1% in January after falling 0.3%. The cost of total orders in January was the lowest since September 2022, although it has been quite volatile in recent months due to transportation orders. This was worse than the average forecast...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0823; (P) 1.0842; (R1) 1.0870; More… Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 1.0887 and sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0832) will affirm the case that fall from 1.1138 has completed....
Yen Maintain Gains But Faces Momentum Hurdle, Dollar Indifferent to Weak Durable Goods
As the market transitions into early US session, Yen remains the best performer of the day, riding on Japan’s stronger-than-anticipated CPI data. Despite the positive undercurrent, Yen has yet to find decisive buying momentum, suggesting that most traders are still on...
US durable goods orders down -6.1% mom, ex-transport orders fall -0.3% mom
US durable goods orders fell -6.1% mom to USD 276.7B in January, worse than expectation of -4.4% mom. Ex-transport orders fell -0.3% mom to USD 186.9B, below expectation of 0.3% mom rise. Ex-defense orders fell -7.3% mom to USD 260.2B. Transportation equipment orders...
GBPJPY Perfect Reaction Higher From Blue Box Area
In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 4-hour Elliott Wave Charts of GBPJPY. In which, the rally from 13 December 2023 low unfolded as an impulse sequence and called for an extension higher to take place. Therefore, we knew that the...
NZIER forecasts no further RBNZ hike, eyes mid-2025 cuts
In its latest Quarterly Predictions, NZIER noted there are “signs of further easing in inflation pressures” in New Zealand. But the pivotal question for RBNZ is whether this easing is “occurring at a fast enough pace” to bring inflation back to target band of 1-3%....
GBP/USD Yawns as UK Shop Inflation Declines
UK shop inflation falls to 2.5% The British pound is drifting on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2683, down 0.03%. Shop price, food inflation heads lower UK shop inflation doesn’t usually make headlines but today’s release was further...
Inflation Still Matters for ECB
The eurozone inflation report for February on the menu this week Most ECB members worry about the growth outlook after the mixed PMIs The euro continues to suffer again against the pound German CPI will be published on Thursday; Eurozone on Friday 10:00 GMT With...
GBPUSD’s Rebound Stalls at 50-Day SMA
GBPUSD bounces off 200-day SMA and regains ground But its advance meets strong resistance at 50-day SMA Momentum indicators turn slightly positive GBPUSD has been stuck in a rangebound pattern since mid-November, unable to adopt a clear directional impetus. Despite...
USD/JPY: Bulls to Remain in Play While Holding Above Broken Fibo Barrier
USDJPY eases on Tuesday as traders reacted on overbought daily studies, but dips are likely to be limited and mark a healthy correction of larger uptrend. Technical picture on daily chart remains bullish (strong positive momentum / moving averages in bullish...
Bitcoin Tears the Bears Apart Again
Market picture The price of the leading cryptocurrency rose decisively during active trading in the US, and in the illiquid Asian session, we saw a wave of stop orders triggered, which at times took the price to $57.8K. Such high levels were last seen in December...
EUR/USD: Bullish Bias Above 200-DMA, Daily Cloud Twist Also to Attract Bulls
The Euro keeps firm tone in early Tuesday and pressuring pivotal barriers at 1.0865/88 zone (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1139/1.0695 fall / 55DMA / Feb 22 spike high). Fresh positive signal on Monday’s close above 200DMA (1.0825) which capped several attacks last week, added...
Bullionz – Action Forex
Overview Products Services Education Shipping Storage Digital tokens backed by real gold, gold coins and bars. Buying, selling, and trading digital gold via fiat exchanges. User guides, FAQs, and how-to videos International delivery of gold products. Secure storage in...
EURJPY Falls Slightly After Meeting 3-Month High
EURJPY creates bullish tendency in short- and long-term timeframes RSI indicates potential downside retracement EURJPY is retreating somewhat after the aggressive buying interest towards the three-month high of 163.70. The price has been developing an...
FX option expiries for 27 February 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of for the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0850-65, which could see price action be more sticky in the session ahead. The offers lined up at 1.0900 are also likely to keep any upside momentum intact for...
Yen Inches Upward as Japan’s CPI Fuels March BoJ Hike Talks
Japanese Yen found modest strength in Asian session today, lifted by stronger than expected consumer inflation data from Japan. At the same time, two-year yield climbed to its highest point since 2011 while Nikkei is steady. The data intensified speculations around...
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Start To News-heavy Week
After 8 consecutive days of growth, the price of NZD/USD is forming a bearish candle this morning, thereby indicating possible concerns among market participants at the beginning of a week full of important economic news: → On Wednesday, at 4:00 GMT+3, the RBNZ...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2647; (P) 1.2674; (R1) 1.2699; More… GBP/USD is still capped below 1.2708 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.2708 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias will...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.28; (P) 150.52; (R1) 150.76; More… USD/JPY is staying in range below 150.87 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8788; (P) 0.8804; (R1) 0.8827; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.8884 is extending. With 0.8727 resistance turned support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, above 0.8884 will resume the rally...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0809; (P) 1.0824; (R1) 1.0836; More… EUR/USD is staying in range below 1.0887 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.0887 and sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0831) will affirm the case that fall from 1.1138 has...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets US President Trump easily beat his remaining contender in the Republican primaries, Nikki Haley, in her home state South Carolina this weekend. He cements his grip over the GOP and is gearing up for a duel against President Biden (?) in November elections. We...
Bitcoin â Bulls Taking a Breather for Consolidation/Limited Correction
Bitcoin eases on Monday, shifting focus towards the floor of near-term consolidation range (50500) established after larger bulls started to run out of steam and left fresh multi-month peak at 53017 (Feb 20). Early signal of an uptrendâs stall and subsequent...
USDJPY Maintains Weak Positive Bias as Bulls Tread Carefully
USDJPY is barely holding onto upside momentum Stiff support propping up the bulls but neutral shift may be unavoidable USDJPY is slowly crawling back up towards the February 13 peak of 150.87 after a mild pullback. But despite the tight range of the past two weeks and...
EURCHF Extends Advance Towards 200-Day SMA
EURCHF extends recovery to a fresh 2-month high Breaks above trendline and eyes 200-day SMA Momentum indicators approach overbought levels EURCHF has been in a downtrend since the beginning of 2023, dropping to an all-time low of 0.9252 on December 29. However, the...
Time for the Dollar to Choose a Trend
The Dollar Index is giving up positions painfully slowly. It is under pressure for the ninth session in a row, but at the same time, the market is unable to accelerate or break this downtrend. Individual currency pairs are now testing critical local levels. The...
Euro Gains Traction as Markets Eye Japan CPI, Commodity Currencies Lag
The global financial markets are overall very quiet today, marked by a noticeable absence of significant economic data releases or impactful news. Euro emerges as the frontrunner, leading European majors higher, while Yen sees a slight dip in anticipation of Japan’s...
Nikkei reaches new heights as Yen declines before Japan’s CPI
Nikkei index surged to new record today, signaling robust appetite for risk among Japanese investors, while Yen faces downward pressure, in particular against European majors. Consumer inflation data is in the spotlight in the upcoming Asian session. Core CPI, which...
XAU/USD: Geopolitical Tensions Continue to Support Gold Price
Gold stands at the front foot at the start of the week and holds near two-week high ($2041) posted on Friday. Growing tensions in the Middle East and overall negative geopolitical picture, continue to fuel safe haven demand and boost metal’s price, along with neutral...
US Dollar Eyes PCE Inflation Data After CPI Scare
Core PCE price index to be crucial for markets amid sticky inflation fears Income and consumption to be watched too as US economy stays hot But can further upside surprises boost the dollar on Thursday, 13:30 GMT Will PCE gauge ease or fuel inflation worries? Even...
WTI Oil: Oil Price Extends Weakness on Fading Fed Rate Cut Expectations
WTI oil price fell further in early Monday trading, in extension of Friday’s 2.2% drop, as the sentiment soured on signals that higher than expected US inflation may delay Fed rate cuts. Fresh weakness emerged after several upside rejections and repeated failure to...
Ethereum as Crypto Growth Driver
Market picture The crypto market settles at a $2 trillion cap level, up 0.8% on the day. Altcoins are once again driving growth, while the first coin is flat, losing 0.5% in 24 hours, and Ethereum is up 2.5%. BNB adds just under 2%, enjoying a resurgence of interest...
Gold Battles With 50-day SMA
Gold rebounds strongly from its 2024 low Challenges 50-day SMA and ascending trendline Momentum indicators turn neutral-to-positive Gold has been regaining ground in the past few sessions, following its bounce off the 2024 bottom of 1,984. Although the price has...
USD/JPY: All Eyes on Japan’s Core-Core Inflation Tomorrow
Japan’s core-core CPI for January 2024 is expected to come in soft at 3.2% y/y versus 3.7% y/y in December 2023. Leading economic indicators, Japan’s Consumer Confidence, and Average Cash Earnings of employees suggest a more potentially upbeat core-core inflation rate...
EUR/USD Going Nowhere North of 1.08
Markets Fed governor Waller’s “What’s the rush?” got a European follow-up. ECB members on Friday hijacked the news by similarly advising against jumping the gun in terms of rate cuts. The economy may be not as surprisingly resilient as the US’, the European labour...
Bitcoin Price Risks Not Staying above $50k
On February 14, a strong bullish impulse was recorded in the BTC/USD market, which pushed the price of bitcoin to the area above USD 50k. The main driver of growth was the effect of the launch of a bitcoin ETF. More than a month has passed since this event, and...
Caution Sets In Ahead of RBNZ, Global Inflation Data to Shake Markets
New Zealand Dollar weakens broadly in Asian session today, reflecting market caution ahead the RBNZ decision later this week, on concerns of less hawkish than expected outcome. The selloff in Kiwi is also dragging down Australian Dollar some what, while Yen and Dollar...
FX option expiries for 26 February 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of for the day. As such, trading sentiment will remain tough to sort out after the mixed flows from Friday last week. The bond market remains a focus point as noted here.As for the expiries, please be reminded that I will...
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: ECB Rhetoric Against the Dollar Data on consumer inflation (CPI) in the US, published on February 13, exceeded expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also indicated a rise in industrial inflation in the country. However, despite this, the American...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s rebound from 0.9252 continued last week and initial bias stays on the upside this week for 0.9574 fibonacci level next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance could be seen from 0.9574 to limit upside. On the...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s up trend continued last week and there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 178.71 to 188.90 from 185.21 at 191.50. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 195.40. On the downside, below...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s rally from 153.15 continued last week but lost momentum after hitting 163.45. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 55 4H EMA (now at 161.94) to bring another rally. On the upside, break...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s late breach of 0.8535 minor support argues that recovery from 0.8497 has completed at 0.8577 already. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for retesting 0.8491/7 support zone. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. For now, risk will...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD stayed in consolidation below 1.3585 last week and outlook is unchanged. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3357 support holds. Break of 1.3585 will resume the rebound from 1.3176 for 1.3897 resistance. However, break of 1.3357 will argue that the rebound...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.6442 continued last week but upside was capped well below 0.6621 resistance so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and outlook stays bearish. On the downside, below 0.6520 minor support will turn bias to the downside for...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF stayed in consolidation below 0.8884 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rise is expected with 0.8727 resistance turned support intact. On the upside, above 0.8884 will resume the rally from 0.8332 to 100%...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD rebounded further to 1.2708 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.2708 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY stayed in consolidation below 150.87 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 148.79 resistance turned support holds. Break of 150.87 will resume 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance...
Continued Euphoria Pushes Global Markets to New Records
The past week marked a significant milestone in global financial markets, as major indices like DOW, S&P 500, DAX, CAC, and even Nikkei all reached new record highs, buoyed by the widespread euphoria surrounding artificial intelligence related sectors. This wave...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD rebounded further to 1.0887 last week but lost momentum and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.0887 and sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0831) will affirm the case that fall from 1.1138 has completed....
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD was still stuck in sideway trading last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6671 will revive the case that whole correction from 1.7062 has completed with three waves down to 1.6127....
Forward Guidance: Q4 GDP Likely Edged Higher But Not Enough to Prevent Sixth Per-Capita Decline
Canadian Q4 and December GDP growth numbers will be in focus for the Bank of Canada after a busy week where inflation numbers for January broadly surprised to the downside. We expect Q4 GDP growth to remain in positive territory with a small annualized increase of...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Why Put Off Until Tomorrow What Can Be Put Off Until the Next Day?
Summary United States: Stowin’ Away the Time The economic calendar was quiet the past few days, so market participants continued to digest last week’s slew of data. Stronger-than-expected inflation, underpinned by the mildly hawkish minutes from the January FOMC...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Slow Your Roll
U.S. Highlights Minutes from the January 30th-31st FOMC underscored that policymakers are adopting a cautious approach on when to pivot to policy easing. A number of Fed Governors spoke this week, and all urged patience on rate cuts, particularly in light of the...
Summary 2/26 – 3/1
Monday, Feb 26, 2024 Tuesday, Feb 27, 2024 Wednesday, Feb 28, 2024 Thursday, Feb 29, 2024 Friday, Mar 1, 2024 The post Summary 2/26 – 3/1 appeared first on Action Forex.
Holzmann: ECB’s monetary policy often trails behind Fed’s
In an interview with Bloomberg TV, ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann pointed out that historically, ECB tends to follow Fed’s policy adjustments with a delay, typically around half a year. “Typically the Fed always in the last few years has always gone...
ECB Survey: Consumer inflation expectations for next tear rise to 3.3%
ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for January showed that inflation expectations for the upcoming year have seen a slight uptick, increasing by 0.1% to 3.3%, while the forecast for three years ahead remains steady at 2.5%. On a more optimistic note, the survey...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2612; (P) 1.2661; (R1) 1.2710; More… GBP/USD bounces notably today but stays below 1.2708. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.2708 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias will...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.14; (P) 150.42; (R1) 150.81; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. Another retreat cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. Above 150.87 will...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8756; (P) 0.8789; (R1) 0.8835; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as consolidation is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.8727 resistance turned support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 0.8885 will resume...
XAUUSD: Bears Prepare To Takeover
On Friday, the gold price (XAUUSD) retreated from a recent two-week high, facing selling pressure. This decline was driven by hawkish minutes from the FOMC meeting, indicating the Fed’s reluctance to cut interest rates. Elevated US Treasury bond yields,...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets ECB members came out “en masse” today, resembling the recent push by the US central bank. Hawkish Austrian ECB Holzmann immediately pulled an interesting string. He supports our “sequence” call, stressing that he didn’t see any circumstances for the ECB to cut...
Will RBNZ Resume Interest Rate Hikes?
RBNZ among the few central banks maintaining a tightening bias ANZ prompts investors to place rate hike bets Inflation slows but remains well above RBNZ’s target range The Bank meets on Wednesday at 01:00 GMT Investors see decent chance for another hike The Reserve...
Weekly Focus – Strong Market Sentiment Continues
The leading AI chip designer Nvidia stole market headlines this week with a record daily jump in market capitalization of USD277bn on Thursday as its’ stock rose 16% after it released blowout results and provided upbeat expectations. The news drove a turn higher in...
Week Ahead â US and Eurozone Inflation, RBNZ Meeting to Test Rate Cut Bets
US core PCE and Eurozone flash CPIs to keep inflation worries in the foreground Japanese and Australian inflation numbers also coming up RBNZ might strike a hawkish tone Manufacturing PMIs also in the spotlight PCE inflation to headline busy US data week The Fed is in...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0788; (P) 1.0838; (R1) 1.0872; More… Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 1.0887 will affirm the case that fall from 1.1138 has completed, and target this resistance. However, break of 1.0761...
Yen and Dollar in Weak Positions as Traders Watch US Markets’ Record Rally
As US session gets underway, Yen and Dollar remain the weakest links in the currency markets, reflecting a broader trend of risk appetite among investors. All eyes are now on whether the US stock market can extend its record-setting run. In particular, there is...
ECB’s Lagarde watches Q1 wage talks for clues on lasting disinflation
ECB President Christine Lagarde described Q4 wage figures as “obviously encouraging numbers”. However, she underscored the importance of caution, stating that the Governing Council needs to gain “more confidence” in the sustainability of the disinflationary process...
EUR/USD: Final Close Above 200DMA to Strengthen Near Term Structure
The Euro is holding within a narrow range on Friday but keeps slight bullish bias on strong positive momentum and the pair being on track for the first bullish weekly close in five weeks. On the other hand, multiple failure to clear 200DMA barrier (1.0824) and...
New Zealand Dollar Edges Lower After Soft Retail Sales
The New Zealand dollar has been on a roll but is in danger of snapping a seven-day rally during which it gained over 2% against the US dollar. NZD/USD is trading in the European session at 0.6185, down 0.16%. New Zealand retail sales decline by 1.9% Another retail...
ECB’s Nagel: Rate cut may be tempting, but it’s not time yet
In the annual report from Bundesbank, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel emphasized the importance of caution and patience. “Even though it may be very tempting, it is too early to cut interest rates. This is because the price outlook is not yet clear...
Silver (XAGUSD) With Bearish Extension and Intraday Target at 22.34
Bearish Scenario: Selling below 22.65 with TP1: 22.34 (intraday) and TP2: 22.02 (swing). It is recommended to place a stop loss around 22.80, at least 1% of the account capital**. A trailing stop can be used. Bullish Scenario: Buying above 22.70 with TP1: 22.90. It is...
Fed Waller Suggests Delaying Rate Cuts by a Few Months (!) Should Not Have Substantial Impact
Markets “What’s the rush?” Fed governor Waller briefly and brightly summed up the string of Fed comments overnight (impact to be reflected in European open given Japanese close). The strength of the economy and recent inflation data mean it is appropriate to be...
Nasdaq 100 Technical: Bulls Rescued by Nvidia (Again)
A 16% rally seen in Nvidia (ex-post earnings) has led the Nasdaq 100 to recoup its entire loss of -3.5% from last Friday, 16 February high to Wednesday, 21 February low. The current positive momentum and trend conditions of Nvidia may assert a further positive...
GBPUSD Tries to Strengthen Bullish Move Above SMAs
GBPUSD rebounds off 200-day SMA But still holds in trading range in short-term RSI and MACD have weak momentum GBPUSD is making an attempt to climb above the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs), posting three straight green days but is still developing within the...
AUD/USD and NZD/USD Grind Higher Steadily
AUD/USD is moving higher and might rally if it clears 0.6600. NZD/USD is also rising and could extend its increase above the 0.6220 resistance zone. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar is moving higher from the 0.6540 zone...
Market Optimism Hits Highs, Yen and Dollar Falter as Equities Soar to New Heights
The global financial markets is riding a wave of strong risk-on sentiment, propelling DOW and S&P 500 to historical highs overnight, while NASDAQ achieved its best daily gain in over a year. That followed the record closes in DAX, CAC and Nikkei yesterday. This...
FX option expiries for 23 February 10am New York cut
There are just some expiries to take note of for EUR/USD, as highlighted in bold. They are layered around 1.0815-30 but should not be too impactful on the day. At present, the pair will be looking to sit on bids at 1.0800 to keep knocking on the door of the 200-day...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.96; (P) 150.18; (R1) 150.50; More… USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 150.87 and intraday bias remains neutral. Another retreat cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring rise...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2613; (P) 1.2628; (R1) 1.2652; More… Despite spiking higher to 1.2708, GBP/USD quickly retreated. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.2708 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0799; (P) 1.0811; (R1) 1.0833; More… EUR/USD retreated after brief rise to 1.0887 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.0887 will affirm the case that fall from 1.1138 has completed, and target this resistance....
Canada: Retail Trade Rebounds in December, November Reading Revised Higher
Retail sales grew by 0.9% month-on-month (m/m) in December, coming in stronger than Statistics Canada’s advance estimate of 0.8% m/m. In addition, November’s print was revised up to a flat reading from -0.2% m/m reported earlier, making today’s growth even stronger....
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The February European headline PMI came in slightly stronger than expected, rising from 47.9 to 48.9. A deepening contraction in Germany (46.1) and sustained output fall in France (47.7) were countered by faster growth in the rest of the region. There’s a...
BTCUSD Consolidates Near More than 2-year High
BTCUSD moves sideways after steep advance pauses Holds comfortably above 50,000 psychological mark Momentum indicators look overbought BTCUSD (Bitcoin) had been in a steep advance following its break above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on February 7. However,...
GER 40 Index Back at Record Highs
The German 40 index hits a record high within bullish formation Might be sailing within overbought waters, but there is still some bullish power Despite the disappointing manufacturing PMI data, the German 40 index (cash) managed to spike to a record high of 17,388 on...
Disappointing German Manufacturing Halted Euro’s Flight
Mixed PMI data from various Euro area countries led to a surge in volatility for European currency pairs on Thursday morning. Preliminary estimates for France surprised with their strength. The manufacturing PMI jumped from 43.1 to 46.8 (43.5 expected). The services...
Fed’s Jefferson anticipates monetary easing later this year, cautiosly optimistic on inflation progress
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson’s speech today offered insights into the monetary policy outlook and identified key risks in the coming months. He suggested that, assuming the economy develops as anticipated, “it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back our...
US PMI composite falls to 51.4, sustained expansion and subdued price pressures
US PMI Manufacturing jumped from 51.5 to 50.7 in February, a 17-month high. PMI Services fell from 52.5 to 51.3. PMI Composite also fell from 52.0 to 51.4. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The early PMI data for...
Yen Falters in Risk-On Environment, Dollar Seeks Comeback With Surging Yields
Global financial markets are currently basking in a robust wave of risk-on sentiment, evidenced by Japan’s Nikkei and Europe’s Stoxx 600 indices reaching new record highs. The optimism is further bolstered by promising US futures, with the technology sector leading...
US initial jobless claims falls to 201k
US initial jobless claims fell -12k to 201k in the week ending February 17, below expectation of 217k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -3.5k to 215k. Continuing claims fell -27k to 1862k in the week ending February 10. Four-week moving average of...
(ECB) Monetary policy accounts – Action Forex
Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 24-25 January 2024 22 February 2024 1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options...
ECB minutes reveal consensus on prematurity of rate cut discussions
Accounts of ECB’s January 24-25 meeting showed that reveal a cautious stance among its members towards the idea of interest rate cuts. Officials reached a “broad consensus” on the notion that discussing rate cuts at this juncture was “premature” with many members...
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Elliott Wave: Buying The Dips At The Blue Box Area
Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a look at the Elliott Wave charts charts of NASDAQ Futures published in members area of the website. As our members know NASDAQ has recently made pull back that has unfolded as Elliott Wave Zig Zag...
EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Showing Signs of Strength
Today news was published about the values of PMI indices for European economies. Data from France was encouraging: → French Flash Manufacturing PMI: actual = 46.8, expected = 43.5, a month ago = 43.1; → French Flash Services PMI: actual = 48.0, expected = 45.7, a...
Eurozone PMI composite rises to 48.9, a step towards recovery amid German drag
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing dipped further from 46.6 to 46.1 in February, undershooting expectations of a 47.1 reading and signaling continued contraction. Conversely, PMI Services climbed from 48.4 to neutral mark of 50.0, surpassing the forecast of 48.7 and reaching...
EURUSD Jumps to Test Critical Resistance
EURUSD has its best week of the year Downside risks remain around 1.0880 EZ flash business PMIs show a mixed picture EURUSD is in the seventh day of gains, marking its longest bull run in a while to reach the critical 1.0880 bar. Disappointingly, Eurozone’s flash...
Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.8% in Jan, core at 3.3%
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.8% yoy in January, down from December’s 2.9% yoy. Core CPI was finalized at 3.3% yoy, down from prior month’s 3.4% yoy. The highest contribution to came from services (+1.73 percentage points, pp), followed by food, alcohol &...
UK PMI composite rises to 53.3, growth accelerates as inflation concerns loom
UK’s PMI Manufacturing edged up from 47.0 to 47.1, aligning with expectations, while PMI Services was steady at 54.3, just shy of the anticipated 54.4. PMI Composite index rose from 52.9 to 53.3, underscoring a period of accelerated economic growth and marking the...
WTI Oil Futures in Fierce Battle with 200-SMA
WTI futures hover around the 200-day SMA Failure to edge higher might lead to a double top Oscillators suggest intensifying positive momentum WTI oil futures (April delivery) have been staging a comeback following their break above the 50-day simple moving average...
No Surprises in FOMC Minutes
In focus today The key events today will be the February flash PMIs from the euro area, US, and UK. Lately, we have seen the manufacturing PMIs improve while the service PMIs have stabilised around the 48 level in the euro area. Leading indicators from Asia suggest...
Japan’s Stock Market Breaks Through the “Iron Coffin Lid”, Yen Broadly Lower
Japanese Yen had a broad-based declined in Asian session today, while Nikkei extended its recent up trend, momentarily reaching a new record high, ending the 34-year wait. This milestone is of considerable psychological significance for Japan, symbolizing the end of...
FX option expiries for 22 February 10am New York cut
There's no significant expiries that should be of much impact on the board for today. As such, trading sentiment will rely more on the risk mood and any reaction to the PMI data in the session ahead. The dollar is weaker across the board as risk trades perk up,...
Ethereum Price Falls after Exceeding $3,000
We previously wrote about the reasons for the positive sentiment in the ETH/USD market. Optimism was added by a post on X (Twitter) by Vitalik Buterin about the so-called Werkle trees. This technology, which should (according to the information in the roadmap) be...
Gold Encounters Resistance at 50.0% Fibo
Gold rebounds strongly from 2-month bottom Price breaks above 50- and 200-period SMAs Oscillators tilt to the positive side Gold had been trading within a range in the four-hour chart, but a hotter-than-expected US inflation report triggered a downward spike to a...
Fed’s Barkin: Recent data makes things harder for Fed
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin characterized the stronger-than-expected inflation data for January as a significant challenge. At an interview, Barkin acknowledged that the recent date “definitely did not make things easier” for Fed. Instead, “it made things...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8791; (P) 0.8814; (R1) 0.8843; More…. USD/CHF dips mildly today but stays in range of 0.8727/8884. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. With 0.8727 resistance turned support intact, further rally is still expected....
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.65; (P) 150.04; (R1) 150.40; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as consolidation from 150.87 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2578; (P) 1.2623; (R1) 1.2668; More… Outlook in GBP/USD is unchanged as range trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.2691 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0767; (P) 1.0803; (R1) 1.0844; More… EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0694 is still in progress and intraday bias stays mildly on the upside. Sustained trading above above 55 D EMA (now at 1.0832) will argue that fall from 1.1138 has completed and target...
BoE’s Dhingra pushes for rate cut, citing inflation decline and consumption woes
BoE’s known dove, Swati Dhingra, reinforced her stance on the necessity for a rate cut in her speech today, underscoring a cautiously optimistic inflation outlook and highlighting concerns over living standards and consumption. Dhingra described the trajectory of...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The Japanese Cabinet Office downgraded its growth assessment for the first time since November in today’s monthly report. Weakness in private consumption and production are to blame. The economic recovery is likely to remain tepid after unexpectedly slipping...
Speculations Over Fed’s Next Move Grow Increasingly Complex
Trading activity is relatively subdued today, with most major currency pairs and crosses hovering within the previous day’s range. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are showing some resilience, maintaining their position as the firmer currencies, albeit without...
NZDUSD Prepares to Switch to a Bull Market
NZDUSD prints bullish trend pattern Constraining 50-day SMA under examination again FOMC meeting minutes due for release at 19:00 GMT NZDUSD is looking to complete a bullish double bottom pattern above the 0.6155 neckline and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the...
Australian Dollar Pares Gains after Strong Wage Growth
The Australian dollar continues to climb and has put together a five-day winning streak. The Aussie rose as much as 0.36% earlier but has pared most of these gains and is currently trading at 0.6552 in the European session, up 0.05%. Wage Price Index climbs 4.2% in Q4...
WTI Oil: Price Eases Further, as US Rate Outlook Offsets Persisting Middle East Worries
WTI Oil extends pullback into second consecutive day after recent rally repeatedly failed to clearly break pivotal Fibo barrier at $78.13. Subsequent easing is generating an initial signal of reversal and formation of a lower platform at $78.50 zone, as fresh bears...
XAUUSD: Will Gold Continue to Rally?
Last week I gave a trade idea on XAUUSD with a target around the $2,020 price line. At the time of writing, XAUUSD already exceeded the target and I’m sure that would leave a lot of people wondering what to expect next. Below, I have presented my view of how I expect...
WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel...
Will FOMC Minutes Give Clues on the Timing of Rate Cuts?
In focus today Today, we receive euro area consumer confidence figures for February. Consumer confidence is still at a low level which is likely the reason for the sluggish consumption ratio. Consumer confidence rebounded strongly during the first half of 2023 but has...
Japan’s government reports stall in consumption and manufacturing slide
The Japanese government maintains its assessment that the economy is “recovering at a moderate pace”, but with a of caution with the observation that the recovery “recently appears to be pausing.” A critical shift noted in the Monthly Economic Report concerns private...
Nasdaq 100 Technical: Torpedoed by Nvidia, At Risk of Uundergoing Multi-Week Corrective Decline
Nasdaq 100 has remained sluggish and underperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average since last Friday, 16 February. The recent underperformance of the Nasdaq 100 has been triggered by the concentration risk of its significant YTD return contributor, Nvidia. The...
Minutes of January Fed Meeting the Only Item Worth Mentioning Today
Markets US stock markets performed well this year despite the hawkish repositioning on bond markets. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are off their YTD/all-time highs, but record YTD gains of respectively 2.32%, 4.31% and 4.13%. One of the reasons is that stocks...
EUR/USD Starts Increase While USD/JPY Dips
EUR/USD gained bullish momentum above the 1.0800 resistance. USD/JPY is declining and showing bearish signs below the 150.40 level. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today The Euro remained in a bullish zone and climbed above the 1.0800 resistance...
USDJPY Hovers Above a Key Trendline
USDJPY trades sideways, hovering around the 150 level It remains close to its recent peak and it is comfortably above a key trendline Momentum indicators are mixed, all eyes on the stochastic oscillator USDJPY is trying to record a green candle as it continues to...
FX option expiries for 21 February 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at around 1.0778-80, which could help to limit any downside action in the session ahead. That also sits near the 100-hour moving average, seen at 1.0776 currently....
Kiwi and Aussie Rise on China’s Market Boost, Dollar Weakens Ahead of FOMC Minutes
New Zealand and Australia Dollar rise appreciably in Asian session today, buoyed by a significant rebound in stock markets of China and Hong Kong. This positive momentum is largely attributed to the ripple effects of China’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut...
Is the US 100 Cash Index Close to a Correction?
US 100 index is in red today, testing the support set by a key trendline It remains a tad below its all-time high as the market looks for new bullish catalysts Stochastic oscillator is trying to send a bearish message The US 100 cash index is lower today, testing...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0765; (P) 1.0777; (R1) 1.0792; More… EUR/USD’s break of 1.0804 resistance suggests short term bottoming at 1.0694, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for stronger rebound. Sustained above 55 D EMA (now...
Canada: Inflation Sees Some Welcomed Cooling in January
Headline CPI inflation cooled more than expected in January, stepping down half a point to 2.9% year-on-year (y/y). Energy prices, and more specifically gasoline prices, were a key part of lower inflation, with gasoline prices down 4% versus a year ago. But even...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2577; (P) 1.2604; (R1) 1.2623; More… Despite today’s rebound, GBP/USD is staying below 1.2691 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.2691 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed....
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8802; (P) 0.8819; (R1) 0.8841; More…. USD/CHF is staying in consolidation from 0.8884 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8727 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 0.8885 will resume the rise...
Canadian January CPI Growth Edged into BoC’s Target Range
CPI growth decelerated to 2.9% year-over-year from 3.4% in December – back under the top end of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) 1% to 3% target range for the first time since June 2023. Energy and food price growth continued to slow, but the Bank of Canada’s preferred...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets This morning, the PBOC surprised markets with a much bigger than expected 25 bps cut of the 5-year prime loan rate (3.95%) aiming to support the real estate market and hopefully also helping to provide some oxygen (and confidence) for broader economic...
ETHUSD Unlocks 21-month High Just Shy of 3,000
ETHUSD extends structure of higher highs Posts 21-month peak a tad below 3,000 psychological mark Momentum indicators point to overbought conditions ETHUSD (Ethereum) has been developing within a bullish channel since late October, surging to consecutive higher highs....
Dollar Turns to Fed Minutes for More Fuel
Minutes of latest Fed meeting will be released at 19:00 GMT Wednesday Given strength of US economy, Fed has warned against early rate cuts If the minutes echo this view, dollar could extend its winning streak Traders recalibrate Fed rate path The US economy continues...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.93; (P) 150.09; (R1) 150.30; More… USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 150.87 and intraday bias stays neutral. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above...
Disinflation Progress Spurs Loonie Decline, Euro Climbs on Wage Data
Canadian Dollar weakens broadly in early US session, sparked by data indicating a stronger-than-anticipated progress in disinflation. Headline CPI fell below the 3% mark, accompanied by significant easing in core inflation measures. This development potentially opens...
Canada’s CPI slows to 2.9% yoy in Jan, ex-gasoline down to 3.2%
Canada’s CPI slowed from 3.4% yoy to 2.9% yoy in January, much lower than expectation of 3.3% yoy. The largest contributor to headline deceleration was lower year-over-year prices for gasoline (-4.0%). Excluding gasoline, CPI also fell from 3.5% yoy to 3.2% yoy....
Gold Rises But Within a Downward Channel
Gold rallied for the fourth consecutive session to reach $2023, recovering almost all the losses suffered the week before on the back of the inflation report. Gold’s ability to rally suggests continued domestic demand, as some investors are clearly rushing to buy back...
BoE Bailey: Market’s rate cut outlook not unreasonable, yet unendorsed
In a session with the Treasury Select Committee today, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged that It’s “not unreasonable” for the market to think about reductions in interest rates this year However, he was quick to qualify this by stating that MPC...
Australian Dollar Shrugs after RBA Minutes, China Rate Cut
The Australian dollar continues to rally and has extended its gains for a fifth successive day. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6550, up 0.19%. Minutes: RBA considered raising rates The minutes of the RBA’s February meeting were released earlier...
Crypto Market Growth Halted Amid Capital Inflows
Market picture The crypto market has corrected 0.46% in the last 24 hours, fluctuating within a narrow range without a clear direction. Bitcoin is down 1% but up 3.7% over seven days, Ethereum is flat for the day but up 10.6% over the week. The top coins are mixed...
ECB wage growth data: A glimpse of hope but no trigger for immediate rate cuts
ECB released data today indicating a slight decrease in negotiated wage growth to 4.46% in Q4, marking a downturn from the previous quarter’s record high of 4.69%. This development, though modest, is likely to be greeted positively by ECB policymakers, signaling a...
USDCHF Regains Some Power, But Still at Risk
USDCHF gets rejected near familiar resistance Short-term bias remains positive but probably too weak USDCHF has been in the green almost every week since the plunge to a nine-year low of 0.8331 at the end of December, but the bullish wave was not strong enough to...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8543; (P) 0.8552; (R1) 0.8565; More… No change in EUR/GBP and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.8497 will resume recent fall to 0.8464 projection level. However, considering bullish convergence condition in...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.54; (P) 161.77; (R1) 162.05; More… EUR/JPY’s rally is in progress even though upside momentum is not too convincing. Intraday bias stays on the upside. Rise from 153.15 should target a retest on 164.29 high. On the downside, however, below...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.88; (P) 189.17; (R1) 189.44; More… GBP/JPY is still extending range trading below 190.05 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected with 187.83 minor support intact. Break of 190.05 will target 61.8% projection of 178.71 to...
EURJPY on the Rise Above 162.00, But for How Long?
EURJPY posts new 3-month high Momentum indicators are gaining ground Positive structure remains intact above short- and long-term diagonal lines EURJPY is skyrocketing above the 162.00 round number, recording a fresh three-month high. The market is completing a strong...
FX option expiries for 20 February 10am New York cut
There are quite a number to watch out for, as highlighted in bold.The first ones being for EUR/USD near the 1.0800 mark, which could help to limit upside price action in the session ahead.Similarly, the ones for USD/JPY at 150.50 should have the same effect in holding...
China’s Rate Cut Meets Indifferent Markets, Canada CPI Takes Center Stage
The financial markets are rather calm in Asian session today, while major currency pairs and crosses largely engage in a phase of consolidation. This tranquility comes in the wake of China’s surprising decision to significantly lower its mortgage reference interest...
EUR/USD: Larger Bears Likely to Resume After Limited Correction
The Euro narrowed range in holiday-thinned Monday trading, as bounce from last Wednesday’s 13-week low (1.0695) started to lose traction after being repeatedly capped by 100DMA (1.0790). Formation of bear-trap below Fibo 61.8% support on Friday was bullish signal, but...
US 500 Index Gets Assistance After Rejection from All-time High
US 500 holds above ascending trend line But technical oscillators losing some ground The US 500 (cash) index was challenging the all-time high of 5,050.96 in the previous sessions, before pulling lower near the 5,000 round number. The market is holding slightly above...
Australian Dollar Extends Gains, RBA Minutes Next
The Australian dollar extended its gains for a fourth straight day. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6537, up 0.10%. Last Tuesday, the Australian dollar suffered its worst one-day showing of the year, declining by 1.18%, after US inflation was higher...
Bundesbank: Weak German economy but no significant, broad-based and long-lasting decline
In its latest monthly report, Bundesbank acknowledged that the “weak phase” in the German economy since Russian war of aggression against Ukraine would continue. Despite this, it stops short of predicting a recession, defining it as a “significant, broad-based and...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.81; (P) 150.23; (R1) 150.63; More… USD/JPY is extending the consolidation from 150.87 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside of retreat should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 150.87 will resume...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets A quiet weekend, uninspiring overnight Asian dealings, an all but empty economic calendar & US financial markets closed for Presidents’ Day. Those are the poor cards European market were dealt with at the start of the week. It doesn’t come as a surprise,...
XAU/USD: Gold Extends Recovery Despite Sticky US Inflation
Recovery leg from $1984 (9-week low of Feb 14) extends into third straight day after short-lived probe below psychological $2000 level was contained by 100DMA and Morning Doji Star reversal pattern formed on daily chart. Although the metal’s price gained pace and...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8788; (P) 0.8813; (R1) 0.8835; More…. USD/CHF is extending the consolidation pattern from 0.8884 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8727 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 0.8885 will...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0744; (P) 1.0766; (R1) 1.0800; More… EUR/USD is extending the consolidation from 1.0694 and intraday bias stays neutral. . Further decline is in favor with 1.0804 resistance intact. On the downside, below 1.0694 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to...
Subdued Trading and Anticipation for RBA Minutes
Activity in the global financial markets are rather muted today, with major European stock indexes reading water within a narrow range. US futures are also showing little change, reflecting the quietness of US market holiday. In the currency sphere, movements are...
Yen Bears Have a Good Chance of Reaching Lows Not Seen Since 1990
The Japanese yen is hovering near 150 per dollar, retreating from last week’s four-month highs of 151. The 150-152 area is hazardous for short-term traders, as this is the level from which the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervened in October 2022 and November 2023...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2560; (P) 1.2592; (R1) 1.2634; More… Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 1.2691 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the upside...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.53; (P) 161.74; (R1) 162.09; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Further rise would be seen to retesting 164.29 high next. On the downside, however, below 160.90 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.89; (P) 189.21; (R1) 189.59; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidation could be seen below 190.05. Further rally is expected with 187.83 minor support intact. Break of 190.05 will target 61.8% projection of...
Dollar Index â Bulls Start to Regain Traction After Shallow Pullback
The dollar index edged higher in early Monday after last weekâs pullback from three-month high (104.85) was repeatedly rejected just above 100DMA (103.96), generating initial signal that correction might be over. The dollar continues to benefit from signals that...
Bitcoin and Ether in Area of Light Resistance
Market picture The crypto market capitalisation reached $1.99 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap estimates, an increase of over 10% in one week. Forbes estimates that the $2 trillion mark was reached last week. Either way, the growth momentum is clear and very...
GBP/JPY: Price Corrects from 8.5 Year High
According to CNN, the economies of the UK and Japan entered a technical recession last week as data showed a second consecutive quarterly decline in gross domestic product. And if in the UK the economic downturn can be associated with high inflation and the strict...
Swedish Inflation Data Kicks Off the Week
In focus today This morning we will get Swedish inflation data for January. We expect an increase in CPIF inflation to 3.2% y/y, while core inflation (CPIF excl. Energy) should fall to 4.4% y/y. This week’s calendar contains several important releases to watch. Both...
Gold Tests Tricky Area Within 38.2% Fibonacci
Gold remains in trading range in short-term Price rebounds off 1,984 MACD and RSI suggest buying interest Gold is moving higher again today, recording its third consecutive green candle after bouncing off the 1,984 support level. It is currently testing the 38.2%...
Could Eurozone PMI Surveys Open the Door to a March ECB Rate Cut?
All eyes are on growth as PMI and IFO surveys are released this week The market could be looking for dovish hints at the ECB minutes Euro remains on the back foot against the pound Euro area PMI surveys will be published on Thursday 09:00 GMT Strong US data releases...
News Flow is Thin and Will Stay So for the Remainder of the Day
Markets US Treasuries tested sell-off lows on Friday after January producer price inflation delivered the third upset of the week when it comes to price developments. CPI inflation and import/export prices earlier on the week showed signs of sticky (services)...
FX option expiries for 19 February 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of for the day. And as a caveat, please take the figures from Tuesday to Friday with tentative caution. I suspect the source for the future expiries are a little wonky so I will update them accordingly day by day instead....
Services Sector Boost and Shifting RBNZ Rate Forecasts Propel NZD Higher
New Zealand Dollar bounces broadly in quiet Asian session, partly underpinned by notable improvement economic data which showed that the services sector has swung back into expansion at the start of 2024. Additionally, economists are increasingly expecting that more...
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: A Week of Mixed Data The macroeconomic statistics released last week were mixed in both the United States and the Eurozone. As a result, EUR/USD failed to break through either the 1.0700 support or the 1.0800 resistance, continuing to move within a narrow...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s rebound from 0.9252 resumed by breaking through 0.9471 resistance last week. But as a temporary top was formed at 0.9510, initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by 0.9413 minor support to bring...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
Sideway trading continued in EUR/AUD last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6671 will revive the case that whole correction from 1.7062 has completed with three waves down to 1.6127. Further...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP edged lower to 0.8497 last week but recovered just ahead of 0.8491 support. Yet, upside is capped below 0.8571 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.8497 will resume recent fall to 0.8464 projection level....
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s rise from 153.15 resumed by breaking 161.84 resistance last week. Initial bias remains on the upside for retesting 164.29 high next. On the downside, however, below 160.90 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. In the bigger picture, price...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s up trend resumed and edged higher to 190.05 last week, but then retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. Further rally is expected with 187.83 minor support intact. Break of 190.05 will target 61.8% projection of 178.71 to...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6642 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. More consolidation would be seen and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.6621 resistance holds. Break of...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s rally from 0.8332 continued last week and hit as high as 0.8884. Nevertheless, with subsequent retreat, initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 0.8884 will resume the rise and 100% projection of 0.8332 to 0.8727 from 0.8550 at...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD was bounded in range below 1.2826 last week despite some volatility. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.2691 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY rose further to 150.87 last week but retreated since then. Intraday bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations. But in case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 150.87...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD edged lower to 1.0694 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is in favor with 1.0804 resistance intact. On the downside, below 1.0694 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to retest 1.0447 support....
Market Optimism Endures Through a Week of Economic Paradoxes
This past week showcased a rollercoaster of economic revelations and market responses. Despite a mix of apprehensions, especially surrounding inflation and monetary policies, the prevailing mood remained decidedly risk-on. That culminated in DOW and S&P 500...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3585 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3357 support holds. Break of 1.3585 will resume the rebound from 1.3176 for 1.3897 resistance. In the bigger...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Central Banks on Hold for Longer?
Summary United States: Little Love in January Data Economic data were stuck in the doldrums this week, highlighted by a hot January CPI print. The out-of-consensus start to the year for economic data continued with a slip in retail sales and industrial production...
NZD: The Week Ahead – Action Forex
Commerzbank’s analysis suggests a brighter outlook for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in the coming months despite recent downward pressure. Factors like broader U.S. Dollar strength and domestic issues have kept the NZD below last year’s highs. However, robust labor...
Week Ahead Europe â Eurozone Inflation and PMI Surveys Eyed
Is a March rate cut from the ECB still possible? UK surveys eyed as the economy falls into recession Could eurozone inflation figures reignite the rate cut debate next month? March has widely been written off as the likely moment that some major central banks will...
Week Ahead North America â FOMC Minutes Key, Canadian Inflation in Focus
Is March a live meeting for the Fed? Inflation data in focus as markets eye July BoC rate cut FOMC minutes could tell us how close they are to rate cuts Itâs been a turbulent start to the year, one in which weâve seen significant shifts in expectations for the...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Inflation Progress Stalls and Spending Falls in January
U.S. Highlights U.S. inflation rose more than anticipated to start the year, on a Consumer Price Index basis, largely due to greater price pressures within the services sector. However, retail spending surprised to the downside in January, suggesting that consumer...
Summary 2/19 – 2/23
Monday, Feb 19, 2024 Tuesday, Feb 20, 2024 Wednesday, Feb 21, 2024 Thursday, Feb 22, 2024 Friday, Feb 23, 2024 The post Summary 2/19 – 2/23 appeared first on Action Forex.
US PPI up 0.3% mom, 0.9% yoy in Jan
US PPI rose 0.3% mom in January above expectation of 0.1% mom. PPI goods declined -0.2% mom while PPI services rose 0.6% mom. PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.6% mom, the largest advance since January 2023. For the 12-month period, PPI slowed from...
RBNZ’s Orr â Inflation Expectations Still Too High
The New Zealand dollar is drifting on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6110, up 0.08%. Orr pushes back against rate cut expectations The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has made inflation its top priority and the Bankâs steep rate-hiking cycle...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.47; (P) 150.02; (R1) 150.50; More… USD/JPY recovers in early US sessions but stays in range below 150.87. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidation would be seen. But in case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 148.79...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8767; (P) 0.8816; (R1) 0.8850; More…. USD/CHF recovers mildly in early US session as consolidation from 0.8885 continues. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 0.8727 resistance turned support to bring...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets This week’s market story was all about US price data which dashed investors hope on a May Fed policy rate cut. January CPI delivered the first and biggest blow on Tuesday by unexpectedly accelerating on a monthly basis and keeping Y/Y-equations more sticky...
Weekly Focus – Data Dampens Rate Cut Expectations
The overall theme for markets this week continued to be the scaling back of expectations of rate cuts especially in the US as the economy looks stronger, and inflation higher, than expected. However, the change should not be exaggerated. Inflation expectations are...
Canadian Inflation in January Likely Eased as BoC Contemplates Interest Rate Cut Timing
The first Canadian inflation reading of 2024 out next Tuesday should edge lower on falling energy prices and slower food price growth. We expect the consumer price index to rise 3.2% year-over-year, lower than 3.4% in December. But the underlying details will be...
Week Ahead â Fed Minutes Headline a Data-Heavy Week
Dollar shines after inflation surprise, awaits latest Fed minutes In Europe, business surveys will be crucial for euro and sterling Canadian and Australian data releases also on the agenda Fired up dollar turns to FOMC minutes It was a beneficial week for the US...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2561; (P) 1.2581; (R1) 1.2621; More… Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 1.2691 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the upside...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0737; (P) 1.0761; (R1) 1.0797; More… EUR/USD dips mildly in early US session as consolidation from 1.0694 extends. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook stays bearish with 1.0804 resistance intact. Below 1.0694 will resume the fall from 1.1138...
Dollar Finds Footing on Strong PPI Data
Dollar stages a notable recovery in the early US session, buoyed by stronger than expected January PPI figures. The highlight was PPI excluding foods, energy, and trade services, which saw its largest monthly increase in a year, hinting at persistent underlying...
Octa – Action Forex
General information Octa (formerly OctaFX) is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and a variety of services already utilised by clients from 180 countries...
Altcoins Temporarily Benefit from Bitcoin’s Pause
Market picture The cryptocurrency market is up 1.7% from 24 hours ago, with Bitcoin stuck between $51.5K and $52.5K. Buying interest has focused on the major altcoins such as BNB (+3.6%), XRP (+3.5%) and Cardano (+4%), which were lagging the day before, but they are...
Natural Gas Dives to Pandemic Lows; Near-Term Oversold
Natural gas futures reach pandemic lows Oversold signals present; confirmation above 1.65 Natural gas futures (March delivery) experienced another painful week, plummeting towards the pandemic floor of 1.50, which halted the 2014-2016 downtrend too. The RSI and the...
GBP/USD Yawns as UK Retail Sales Soar
The British pound has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2578, down 0.17%. UK retail sales rebound with 3.4% gain UK retail sales were more than impressive, surging 3.4% m/m in January. This crushed the market estimate of 1.5% and...
ECB’s Schnabel warns of premature policy ease amid wage-driven inflation pressures
In a speech today, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel noted the role of “persistently low, and recently even negative, productivity growth” in exacerbating the inflationary pressures from the current strong growth in nominal wages. She pointed out that this...
US Data Wraps Up This Week
In focus today In the US, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer survey (including inflation expectations) and January producer prices figures (PPI) are due for release in the afternoon. Following the strong CPI earlier this week, markets will be very...
Nikkei 225 Technical: Eyeing Potential New All-Time High
Nikkei 225 has continued its bullish momentum despite a technical recession in the Japanese economy. Current price action is just 0.9% away from its 38,957 all-time high printed in December 1989. Medium-term momentum is overbought but no clear signs of bullish trend...
NZDUSD Stuck in a Rectangle Pattern
NZDUSD claims 200-day SMA and descending trendline But the pair fails to rally, extending sideways move Oscillators improve but remain in negative territories NZDUSD entered a downtrend after getting rejected at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.6536-0.5772...
JPY Under Pressure. Technical Analysis of USDJPY, EURJPY, and AUDJPY
Fundamental Scenario of the Yen The Japanese yen was the worst-performing currency this week, falling by 0.6% and trading near a three-month low. Recent preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter of Japan show a warning of a fall into a technical recession, something...
USDCAD Retains Upside Pressure in Ascending Channel
USDCAD starts a battle with 200-day SMA However, MACD and stochastic suggest bearish retracement USDCAD has been recouping some losses after the strong bearish movement in the preceding two sessions but is currently finding strong resistance near the 200-day simple...
Yen Dips as Nikkei Charges Toward Record High
Yen weakens mildly in Asian session today, contrasting with Nikkei’s continued up trend towards historical high made in 1990. This development comes amidst diminishing impacts of Japanese officials’ verbal interventions aimed at stemming Yen’s decline. Without...
FX option expiries for 16 February 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The ones for EUR/USD are layered between 1.0700 to 1.0800 with some right in the middle of that. It is likely to keep price action more contained at current levels especially, before the expiries roll off...
USD/JPY: Correction Likely to be Limited
USDJPY extends pullback from the three-month high (150.88) into second straight day, as traders booked profits after Tuesday’s rally of nearly 1%. Overbought daily studies contributed to fresh selling, which is expected to push the price lower and offer better levels...
Ethereum Price Exceeds $2,800 – Action Forex
The last time the ETH/USD price was at this level was in May 2022, which was the start of a massive drop of more than 65% in 1.5 months. However, now the ETH/USD market is dominated by bullish sentiment, for the following reasons: → deployment of the Dencun update on...
All Eyes on the Strongest Cryptos
Market picture The crypto market continues to rise, adding 2.3% to the level of 24 hours ago. Bitcoin’s capitalisation has surpassed 1 trillion, and its share of all coins is estimated at 52.5% by CoinMarketCap. The increase in share is due to USDT and the relative...
Empire State Manufacturing Index â EURUSD Technical Analysis Overview
The markets await the Empire State Manufacturing Index this morning; the index is based on surveying a monthly sample of the Stateâs manufacturing executives and is handled by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The index is considered a leading indicator; a...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8842; (P) 0.8864; (R1) 0.8880; More…. USD/CHF’s retreat from 0.8884 extends lower today and intraday bias remains neutral. Some more consolidative trading would be seen but downside should be contained by 0.8727 resistance turned support to bring...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.33; (P) 150.61; (R1) 150.86; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 150.87 is extending. Downside of consolidation should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 150.87 will...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2531; (P) 1.2571; (R1) 1.2606; More… Outlook in GBP/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.2691 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0704; (P) 1.0719; (R1) 1.0744; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral as consolidation continues above 1.0694. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0804 resistance holds. Below 1.0694 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to retest 1.0447...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The slew of eco data from the US came in mixed. February regional sentiment indicators including the Empire Manufacturing index and the Philly Fed business outlook were better than expected. Details showed improvement across almost all subseries, including...
U.S. Retail Sales Opens 2024 on a Subdue Note
Retail sales declined by -0.8% month-on-month (m/m) in January, in contrast to December’s downwardly revised 0.4 % gain (previously 0.6%). This was lower than the consensus forecast calling for a more modest decline of -0.2%. Trade in the auto sector was down -1.7%...
Dollar Setback on Poor Retail Sales, Sterling Faces Recession Woes
Dollar’s pullback intensifies in early US session, prompted by unexpectedly poor retail sales data for January. This underwhelming performance is reigniting debates about the enduring strength of consumer spending, a critical factor in fueling inflation. Although a...
US retail sales falls -0.8% mom in Jan, ex-auto sales down -0.6% mom
US retail sales fell -0.8% mom to USD 700.3B in January, well below expectation of -0.2% mom. Ex-auto sale fell -0.6% mom to USD 567.9B, much worse than expectation of 0.1% mom rise. Ex-gasoline sales fell -0.8% mom to USD 647.9B. Ex-auto, gasoline sales fell -0.5%...
BTCUSD Explodes to More Than 2-Year High
BTCUSD goes parabolic after claiming 50-day SMA Jumps above 50,000 to a fresh more than 2-year peak Momentum indicators look extremely overbought BTCUSD (Bitcoin) has been experiencing a steep advance following its break above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on...
GBP/USD â UK in Recession But That’s Unlikely to Sway BoE Yet
UK GDP -0.3% in Q4 and -0.1% in December BoE not concerned about recession GBPUSD momentum fading near February lows? The UK fell into recession in the second half of last year after GDP figures for the fourth quarter showed a steeper contraction than expected. While...
JP 225 Index in Sight of Historic Peak
JP 225 index approaches its 1989 record high Bulls might be exhausted as overbought signals detected Japan’s 225 stock index (cash) marked another green day on Thursday despite GDP figures pointing to a recessionary economy, extending its weekly bull run closer to the...
European Commission forecasts slower Eurozone growth, but quicker inflation slowdown
According to European Commission’s Winter 2024 Economic Forecast, Eurozone’s GDP growth for 2024 was revised notably downwards to 0.8% from Autumn’s estimate of 1.2%, reflecting a more subdued outlook than previously anticipated. For 2025, GDP growth forecast as...
Will Canadian CPI Data Offer Loonie Any Support?
Inflation in Canada has been stuck above 3.0% since the summer The Bank of Canada is keeping rate hike option on the table Yet, the loonie has been on the backfoot versus the dollar this year Will Tuesday’s CPI data (13:30 GMT) put BoC’s inflation fight back on track?...
AUD/USD Price Reaction to Labour Market News Provides Important Information for Analysis
Australia’s unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 4.1% in January, while employment was little changed although analysts had expected around 25,000 new jobs, data released this morning showed. It is believed that weak labour market data should prompt central...
Is a Correction Around the Corner for US 30 Cash Index?
US 30 index in the green again, after Tuesday’s decent correction It remains a tad below its all-time high but bulls might start to worry Momentum indicators mixed; all eyes on the stochastic oscillator The US 30 cash index is in the green again today, reacting to...
GBPUSD Edges Down as UK Slips into Mild Recession
GBPUSD holds above key support trendline despite disappointing UK GDP data Short-term trend deteriorates, but confirmation needed below 1.2500 GBPUSD remained squeezed between the 1.2563 resistance and the key support trendline from the 2022 record low in the...
ECB’s Lagarde highlights wage growth as increasingly important inflation
In a European Parliament committee hearing, ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted that the “ongoing disinflation process” is expected to continue “gradually further down over 2024,” attributing this trend to the diminishing effects of past upward shocks and the...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.70; (P) 189.31; (R1) 189.87; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point, for consolidations below 190.05. Break 190.05 will resume larger up trend. However, break of 187.83 will turn bias to the downside for deeper correction...
FX option expiries for 15 February 10am New York cut
There are no major expiries today but there will be some big ones to watch out for tomorrow. As such, trading conditions today might be more muted in the run up towards the US retail sales data release.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to...
Japan’s Recession Can’t Hold Back Yen’s Recovery and Nikkei’s Surge
Japanese Yen recovers broadly in Asian session today, while Nikkei also soared to a new 34-year high, surpassing the 38k mark. The move came as a rather complex reactions to economic data showing that Japan unexpectedly slipping into recession. The surprised downturn...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0674; (P) 1.0736; (R1) 1.0772; More… EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1138 is in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current development argues that whole rise from 1.0447 has already finished. Deeper decline would be seen back to this 1.0447...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8786; (P) 0.8833; (R1) 0.8919; More…. USD/CHF’s rally from 0.8332 is still in progress, and intraday bias stays on the upside. Next target is 100% projection of 0.8332 to 0.8727 from 0.8550 at 0.8954. Firm break there will pave the way to 161.8%...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.73; (P) 150.31; (R1) 151.37; More… USD/JPY’s rally from 140.25 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption of 155.50 projection level...
EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8491; (P) 0.8513; (R1) 0.8526; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral with current recovery. But further decline is expected as long as 0.8571 resistance holds. Current fall is seen as part of the larger down trend. Break of 0.8497 will...
GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.87; (P) 189.48; (R1) 190.50; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations could be seen first. Downside should be contained well above 185.21 support to bring another rise. Break of 190.05 will...
GBP/USD: Cable Falls Further After Below-Forecast UK January Inflation
Cable extends weakness into second straight day, initially deflated by stronger dollar on unexpectedly hot US inflation on Tuesday, while today’s softer than expected UK CPI data raised bets for BoE rate cut by June and added pressure on sterling. Wednesday’s drop...
Fed’s Goolsbee: Rate cuts tie to confidence on path to inflation target
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee at an even today that inflation would “still be consistent” with the path to 2% target even if it “comes in a bit higher for a few months”. He emphasized that rate cuts should be tied to “confidence in being on a path toward the...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Core bonds licked their wounds after yesterday’s smackdown with UK gilts outperforming both US Treasuries and bunds. Gilts on Tuesday suffered a one-two-punch from a stronger-than-expected UK labour market report first and from the US CPI inspired global...
Pound Extends Losses After UK Inflation Unchanged
The British pound continues to lose ground on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2546, down 0.35%. UK inflation holds steady at 4.0% The January inflation report showed that inflation didn’t budge but was lower than expected. UK CPI in January...
USD/CAD â Two-Month High Ahead of Thursday’s US Retail Sales Report
US inflation data boosts the dollar Retail sales eyed on Thursday for signs of strong demand USDCAD may remain rangebound The US dollar reached a two-month high against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday on the back of some stronger economic data. The inflation...
UK Inflation Data Tempers Sterling, But Impact Limited
Sterling is taking a modest step back today, responding to UK’s latest inflation report that came in below market expectations. Despite this, the actual figures for both headline and core CPI merely held their ground compared to the previous month’s readings,...
GBP/JPY â Eases From Fighs After Weaker UK Inflation Data
UK inflation unchanged in January Markets expect BoE rate cut in Q2 GBPJPY pares gains after hitting 8.5 year high UK inflation data this morning will have been a welcome surprise for the Bank of England but thereâs still a long way to go. Unfavorable base effects...
US Stock Market Bulls Facing a Reality Check (3 Ominous Signs to Watch)
Goods-based inflationary pressures in the US may resurface in H2 2024 due to leading bullish momentum built-up in commodities. Persistent low correlation readings among S&P 500 constituents may trigger a spike in the VIX. The leading Nasdaq 100 has displayed...
Gold Plummets Below 2,000 – Action Forex
Gold drops to its lowest since mid-December Breaks beneath the crucial 2,000 mark Oscillators point to extreme oversold conditions Gold experienced a massive downward spike in the four-hour chart following the hotter-than-expected US CPI report on Tuesday, dropping to...
ECB’s de Guindos: we must not get ahead of ourselves
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos acknowledged in a speech that inflation is moving “on the right track” towards target. But he also pointed out several factors that could derail progress. De Guindos highlighted “wage pressures” as a crucial factor yet to show signs...
Has Japanese Yen Missed the Recovery Train?
Yen down more than 6% against US dollar this year already Traders less confident Japan will raise rates, as inflation slows For the yen to recover, global economy needs to weaken Yen feels the blues Another year, another meltdown for the Japanese currency. A...
GBP/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2549; (P) 1.2617; (R1) 1.2661; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.2691 resistance will affirm the case that correction from 1.2826 has completed at 1.2517, after drawing support from...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8491; (P) 0.8513; (R1) 0.8526; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside at this point. Current fall should be part of the larger down trend and should target 0.8464 projection level. For now, break of 0.8571 resistance is needed to...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.87; (P) 189.48; (R1) 190.50; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 178.71 to 188.90 from 185.21 at 191.50. On the downside, below 187.83 minor support will turn intraday...
A Heartbreaking Blow for Investors
Uh oh! Yesterday’s inflation data from the US didn’t go smoothly down the market’s throat. Instead, the stronger-than-expected set of inflation data dashed hopes of seeing the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates anytime in the first half of this year. The US 2-year yield...
USD/JPY Jumping Beyond 150 Triggers Several Verbal FX Warnings from Japan
Markets Higher than expected US January inflation abruptly ended the low-volatility goldilocks context that dominated trading of late by dashing hopes that the Fed will be in a position to cut rates soon to facilitate a perfect soft landing. Headline inflation proved...
GBPUSD Bears Push for a Breakout
GBPUSD tests the support set by the 200-day SMA Bears are attempting a breakout from the recent trading range Momentum indicators tentatively support the correction GBPUSD is registering its second consecutive red candle as the bears are trying to push GBPUSD below...
FX option expiries for 14 February 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of for the day. As such, trading sentiment will continue to revolve around the post-CPI reaction. The bond market remains a key spot to watch in that regard, with spillovers to other technical plays in the dollar at the...
Eyes on UK Inflation While Dollar Dominance Continues
Dollar maintains its position as the week’s top performer so far, following notable upside breakouts, while Asian markets remain relatively quiet. Without major economic releases from US today, the greenback could have a breather first. However, attention is set to...
USDCHF Picks Up Steam, But Caution Needed
USDCHF speeds up, approaches crucial zone Overbought signals detected Important resistance at 0.8888 USDCHF gained significant positive momentum during the early European trading hours on Tuesday after a couple of weak sessions, extending its short-term uptrend from...
A Step in the Right Direction for the UK But BoE Will Remain Cautious
The UK is continuing to make progress toward being able to cut interest rates but as has been the case throughout the last couple of years, the process is far from straightforward. The good news is that wage growth is slowing at a good pace after peaking last summer...
US CPI slows to 3.1% yoy in Jan, but core CPI unchanged at 3.9% yoy
US CPI rises 0.3% mom in January, above expectation of 0.2% mom. CPI core (all items less food and energy) rise 0.4% mom, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Index for shelter rose 0.6% mom, contributing over two thirds of the monthly all item increase. Food index rose...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0750; (P) 1.0778; (R1) 1.0800; More… EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1138 resumed by breaking 1.0722 support today. More importantly, current development argues that whole rise from 1.0477 has already finished. Intraday bias is back on the downside for...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2604; (P) 1.2630; (R1) 1.2653; More… Despite spiking higher to 1.2691, GBP/USD quickly retreated. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.2691 resistance will affirm the case that correction from 1.2826 has...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8732; (P) 0.8752; (R1) 0.8778; More…. USD/CHF’s rally accelerates to as high as 0.8867 so far, and intraday bias stays on the upside. Next target is 100% projection of 0.8332 to 0.8727 from 0.8550 at 0.8954. Firm break there will pave the way to...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Trading in Asia and during the morning session in Europe was one long-drawn countdown to US inflation data released this afternoon. Over the previous days we often had to mention that there wasn’t really much of hard news to guide trading, but this obviously...
U.S. CPI Growth Shows Underlying Signs of Inflation Reacceleration
The year-over-year rate of CPI growth slowed less than expected in January – to 3.1% from 3.4% year-over-year with core (ex-food and energy) price growth unexpectedly holding steady at 3.9%. Energy and food price growth both slowed largely as expected – to -4.6% for...
January CPI: A Great Disservice
Summary The January CPI data came in hotter than expected and did little to give the FOMC the “greater confidence” it needs to start imminently cutting rates. Gasoline prices declined for the fourth month in a row, but an outsized jump in energy services and food...
US: Progress on the Inflation Front Grinds to a Halt in January
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-on-month (m/m) in January, ahead of the consensus forecast calling for a more modest gain of 0.2%. CPI rose 3.1% year-over-year, down from 3.4% in December. Energy prices fell 0.9% m/m, largely driven by a pullback in...
Core Inflation Slowdown Hits a Snag, Dollar Rises Amid Fed Cut Uncertainties
Dollar rises significantly in early US session supported by the latest consumer inflation data, which also triggers a marked in DOW futures, dropping by over -300 points. Concurrently, 10-year Treasury yield is soaring near 4.3% mark. Most critically, the inflation...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.03; (P) 149.25; (R1) 149.58; More… USD/JPY’s rally resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rally should now be seen to retest 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up...
New Zealand Dollar Slips After Inflation Expectations Eease
The New Zealand dollar has declined after New Zealand inflation expectations decelerated in the fourth quarter. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6114, down 0.25%. The New Zealand dollar declined by 0.40% after the inflation expectations release but has...
Stronger Labour Market Continues to Boost Pound
Economic data continues to be on the Pound’s side, with another set of better-than-expected figures, this time from the labour market. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 3.8% against expectations of 4.0%. A fall in the number of active job seekers in the labour...
January US CPI and Its Impact on EURUSD
Fundamental Outlook Today, Tuesday, February 13th, at 8:30 am New York time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases US inflation data related to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This high-impact data could generate significant changes in the perception of the...
Bitcoin Price Exceeds Psychological Level of $50k
The last time the BTC price was above $50,000 was in December 2021, making its way to the low around $15,500 reached in November 2022. Reaching the $50,000 level was facilitated by: → waiting for the halving, after which the price of Bitcoin is believed to receive a...
Where Will Bitcoin’s New Growth Momentum End?
Market picture The crypto market continues its impressive growth, rising over 3.5% in 24 hours to $1.87 trillion. Having broken through its January peak, the market is now at its highest level since April 2022. Confidently gaining momentum even before bitcoin halved,...
German ZEW sentiment rises to 19.9, anticipating rate cuts
German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose from 15.2 to 19.9 in February, above expectation of 17.5. Current Situation Index, however, fell from -77.3 to -79.0, below expectation of -81.7. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment rose from 22.7 to 25.0, above expectation of 20.1....
USD: Critical Levels To Watch Ahead of CPI
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a consolidation phase since early February, displaying minor signs of weakening last week. Despite this, the USD continues to find support around the 104.00 mark on dips, indicating a general resilience. Analysis suggests that the...
EURJPY Re-enters Bullish Channel – Action Forex
EURJPY edges higher after 50-day SMA prevents decline Jumps back within its bullish channel in place since June Momentum indicators turn positive EURJPY had been sliding lower in the short term, following its rejection at 161.85 in late January. Nevertheless, the pair...
USDJPY Bulls Take Control, But It Could be a Trap
USDJPY rises but trades within a bearish pattern Resistance expected around 149.70-150.00 US CPI inflation data due for release at 13:30 GMT USDJPY turned green after touching its 20-period simple moving average (SMA) in the four-hour chart, rising gradually to a new...
EURUSD Loses Steam After Bounce Off 1.0725
EURUSD holds beneath downtrend line in short-term 20- and 200-day SMAs post death cross Long-term view is still bullish EURUSD is struggling to continue the rebound that started from the 1.0725 support level and the medium-term ascending trend line. Currently, the...
A Packed Day With UK Employment, Swiss CPI, German ZEW, and US CPI
New Zealand Dollar falls notably during Asian session, triggered by the latest survey from the RBNZ, which revealed a further easing in inflation expectations. The implications of these findings have prompted traders to pare back the bets on the likelihood of more...
FX option expiries for 13 February 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries on the board for today. As such, trading sentiment will only be centered around the reaction to the US CPI data coming up later. There isn't anything else that will steal the focus in markets for the day ahead.For more information on...
Decoupling S&P 500 – Action Forex
Last Friday’s inflation revisions in the US were insignificant and hinted that inflation in the US was about the same by the end of last year. Consumer prices rose 3.3% in the final 3 months of the year in the US – the latter was good news for everyone craving to see...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.01; (P) 149.29; (R1) 149.56; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral as retreat from 149.57 is extending. Some consolidations could be seen but further rally is expected as long as 147.62 support holds. Above 149.57 will resume the rise...
GBP/USD Eyes Bailey, Jobs Report
The British pound is showing limited movement at the start of the week. In Monday’s North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2610, down 0.15%. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak at a public event later today and the markets will be listening...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8733; (P) 0.8747; (R1) 0.8763; More…. USD/CHF’s rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise from 0.8332 should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9243 to 0.8332 at 0.8995. On the downside, below 0.8725 minor support will...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2604; (P) 1.2624; (R1) 1.2648; More… GBP/USD edged higher to 1.2653 today but failed to sustain above 55 4H EMA again. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.2653 resistance will affirm the case that...
Brent Crude Prices Edge Higher Amid Middle East Tensions
Brent crude oil prices are currently hovering around $82.00 per barrel this Monday, with market sentiment influenced by recent developments in the Middle East. Although concerns over disruptions to energy supplies from the region have somewhat subsided, the...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Core bonds marginally gained at the beginning of the new week. In super quiet trading (already starting in Asia as Japan and China kept their doors shut), US yields pared initial drops between 1.5 and 2.6 bps. German rates ease a little more, changes ranging...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0766; (P) 1.0781; (R1) 1.0799; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0896 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained break of...
Yen Regaining Ground, GBP/AUD Staying Bullish Despite Loss of Momentum
Japanese Yen stages a broad recovery today, buoyed by notable retreat in European benchmark yields. Meanwhile, Dollar is softening against Yen, yet holding its ground across other major currencies. New Zealand Dollar emerges as the day’s underperformer, yet its losses...
NZD/USD Dips Despite Hawkish RBNZ
RBA’s Orr says high rates still needed New Zealand releases inflation Expectations on Tuesday The New Zealand dollar is lower on Monday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6127, down 0.35%. The New Zealand dollar ended the week on a high note, gaining...
Copper stabilizes after selloff on supply concern, no clear bounce yet
Copper trades steadily in range today, showing no immediate signs of a rebound. Near term selloff intensified following last week’s announcement by KoBold Metals, a venture with backing from notable figures including Bill Gates, about the discovery of a substantial...
EUR/USD: Recovery Likely to Stall Under the Base of Thick Daily Cloud
Recovery leg from 1.0723 double bottom (Feb 5/6) started to face increased headwinds on approach to daily Tenkan-sen (1.0810), with the base of thick daily cloud (spanned between 1.0828 and 1.0969) laying just above and adding pressure. Initial signals of recovery...
GBP/USD: Limited Recovery Warns of Prolonged Sideways Mode
Cable ticked higher and hit new highest since Feb 2 in early Monday but was so far unable to sustain gains, keeping the price within congestion which extends into fourth straight day. A double Doji (Fri/Thu) signal indecision as daily studies are mixed and keep...
WTI Oil: Oil Price Dips on Easing Concerns About Middle East Supply
WTI oil edged lower in early Monday, following calmer tones regarding possible end of Israeli strikes on southern Gaza, which eased fears about supply disruptions from the Middle East. Fresh easing started to develop a reversal pattern on daily chart after the recent...
Gold Slides Below 50-day SMA, Hitting Ascending Trendline
Gold trades sideways in the past week Closes profoundly below the 50-day SMA on Friday Momentum indicators turn negative Gold has been rangebound in the past few trading sessions, following its rejection at the 2,065 mark on February 1. However, on Friday, the price...
Nikkei 225 Index Price Sets 34-year High
The price of the Nikkei 225 index is fixed above the level of 37,000 points. The last time this happened was after the index reached its all-time high in 1989. The bullish behavior of the Japanese stock market has the following reasons: → Strong corporate reporting....
Bitcoin Pushes Cryptos Upwards – Action Forex
Market picture The crypto market reached a capitalisation of $1.82 trillion in the early hours of trading on Monday. By the early European session, it had corrected to $1.8 trillion, but this is still more than 10% above the levels of a week earlier. Bitcoin remains...
Are EURCHF Bulls Ready for a Breakout?
EURCHF trades higher, tests key resistance trendline Strong upmove in place since late January Momentum indicators support the current upleg EURCHF is trying to record its eighth consecutive green candle since the January 31 trough. It is now testing the resistance...
Central Bankers Advocated Cautious Wait-and-See Bias
Markets Except for the (strong) US services ISM on Monday last week’s eco calendar was light. Friday’s US CPI revision in this respect didn’t change the picture. US auctions (3-y, 10-Y, 30-y) all met solid investor demand. Even so, yields on both sides of the Atlantic...
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Dollar Dips but Promises a Rebound Last week saw a scarcity of significant macroeconomic data. In anticipation of new drivers, market participants analysed the state of the US labour market and statements from Federal Reserve officials. Data released on...
FX option expiries for 12 February 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of for today. And looking out to the rest of the week, there doesn't seem to be too much else either. But we'll take things one day at a time to see how they play out.As for the start of the week, price action is likely to...
Asia Calm in a Quiet Prelude, US CPI and UK Major Data to Highlight the Week
Today’s Asian session sees an unusual quietness across the region, with major markets closed for holidays, leading to limited movement among major currency pairs and crosses. New Zealand Dollar is having a slight downtick following RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s...
Buckle Up for EU-China Trade Tensions
In this piece, we argue that there is a high probability that the EU will increase the tariff on Chinese electric cars, but there are also good arguments why that might not lead to a large-scale trade war. The EU Commission has rung alarm bells over a doubling of the...
Week Ahead Europe – A Big UK Data Drop, ECB Speakers and Eurozone GDP
Will ECB policymakers leave the door open to a March rate cut? UK data eyed amid division at the BoE Eurozone GDP may leave bloc on the brink of recession The eurozone appears to have avoided a recession at the end of last year but it may have simply been delayed. GDP...
Week Ahead North America – US Inflation Data Eyed, Canada Quiet
US inflation and retail sales among the highlights Tier three Canada data only after employment update Could a March rate cut still be on the table? US economic data since the turn of the year has been far from ideal considering traders had priced in up to 175 basis...
U.S. Inflation to Fall Below 3% for First Time in Nearly Three Years
U.S. retail sales and consumer price index reports for January will be closely watched for whether strong consumer spending and slowing inflation continue to unexpectedly coexist. The U.S. Federal Reserve remains wary that strong demand could reignite price growth,...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Central Banks Still in the Spotlight
Summary United States: Growth Still Solid, but Slowdown on the Horizon The ISM services index shot higher into expansion territory during January, which is the latest piece of evidence that economic growth is still firmly in positive territory. A sharp rise in the...
Central Bankers Work to Recast Rate Expectations, Yet Market Optimism Remains Unwavering
Last week’s financial markets were characterized by a mix of resilience, speculation, and divergent central bank signals. In the US, the narrative remained steadfast with Fed officials emphasizing a patient approach towards monetary policy, firmly pushing back against...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Fed Officials Continue to Signal Patience on Rate Cuts
U.S. Highlights The ISM Services index, which was on the cusp of falling into contractionary territory in December, improved notably in January, rising 2.9 points to 53.4. The one blemish to the report was a sharp move up in the prices index. With little on the data...
Summary 2/12 – 2/16
Monday, Feb 12, 2024 Tuesday, Feb 13, 2024 Wednesday, Feb 14, 2024 Thursday, Feb 15, 2024 Friday, Feb 16, 2024 The post Summary 2/12 – 2/16 appeared first on Action Forex.
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s rebound last week suggests that pull back from 0.9471 has completed at 0.9304 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 0.9471. Firm break there will resume whole rebound from 0.9252 to 100% projection of 0.9252 to 0.9471 from 0.9304 at...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation in range of 1.6348/6671 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6671 will revive the case that whole correction from 1.7062 has completed with three waves down...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP stayed in consolidation above 0.8512 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8591 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8512...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s rebound last week suggests that corrective pull back from 161.84 has completed at 158.06 already. Initial bias remains on the upside for 161.84 resistance first. Firm break there will rebound whole rise from 153.15 to retest 161.84. For now, further rally is...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s rise last week indicates that pull back from 188.90 has completed at 185.21 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 178.71 to...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD rebounded strongly last week but failed to break through 1.3540 resistance decisively. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations first. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 1.3357 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6468 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6621 resistance holds. Break of 0.6468 will...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s rise from 0.8332 resumed by breaking 0.8727 resistance last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week despite loss of upside momentum. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9243 to 0.8332 at 0.8995. On the downside, below 0.8687 minor support will...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD rebounded after initial dip to 1.2517 last week, but upside was capped by 55 4H EMA. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.2641 resistance will affirm the case that correction from 1.2826 has completed at 1.2517, after...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s rally from 140.25 resumed by breaking through 148.79 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of larger up trend. For now, downside, outlook will remain cautiously...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD fell further to 1.0722 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0896 resistance holds. On the downside, sustained...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.35; (P) 148.91; (R1) 149.89; More… USD/JPY’s rally from 140.25 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Further rally would be seen to retest 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8721; (P) 0.8741; (R1) 0.8757; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Current rise from 0.8332 would target 61.8% retracement of 0.9243 to 0.8332 at 0.8995 next. On the downside, below 0.8687 minor support will turn...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2580; (P) 1.2609; (R1) 1.2647; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, above 1.2641 will resume the rebound from 1.2517 to retest 1.2826 high. On the downside, however, decisive break of 1.2499 will argue that...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0750; (P) 1.0770; (R1) 1.0797; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, decisive break of 1.0722 will argue that whole rise from 1.0447 has completed. Deeper fall would then be seen to target this...
Canada’s Labour Market Strengthens in January, But Details Less Constructive
The Canadian labour market added 37.3k positions in January, with full-time employment down 11.6k and part-time employment up 48.9k. The unemployment rate declined 0.1 percentage point to 5.7%, helped by a 0.1 percentage point to decline in the labour force...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The US Bureau of Labor Statistics published its annual CPI revisions today. The same event last year showed some deviations from the initial outcomes large enough that they casted doubt on the speed of the disinflationary process. This time around, however,...
Week Ahead – US CPI in the Spotlight as Dovish Fed Bets Fade
All eyes on US CPI on Tuesday after run of strong data Retail sales on the agenda too for the US dollar Pound on standby for UK data flurry, including CPI and GDP Japanese GDP and Australian employment coming up too Will US CPI remain sticky? Inflation in the United...
Will January’s US CPI Inflation Be a Game Changer?
Forecasts point to stable inflation, weaker core CPI Upside surprise is likely, as business indicators point to higher prices US economy has a blockbuster performance The US economy has left analysts speechless. Although the Fed has raised interest rates to the...
Weekly Focus – Higher Rates and Central Bank Pricing
Focus this week has been on the increase in interest rates and the decline in market expectations for central bank rate cuts that were initiated by the strong US job market report late Friday last week. While the headline numbers were very strong, we stress that the...
USD/CAD Dips as Canadian Employment Shines
Canadian employment jumps, wage growth falls USD/CAD edges lower The Canadian dollar has climbed higher in the North American session after the release of Canada’s December employment report. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3432, down 0.20%....
Canadian Dollar Rises on Strong Job Data, Yen and Franc Weakness Persists
Canadian Dollar bounces broadly in early US session, bolstered by unexpectedly robust Canadian employment data. This development comes amidst cautious remarks earlier in the week from BoC Governor Tiff Macklem, who tempered expectations by noting that achieving the 2%...
Canada’s employment rises 37k in Jan, unemployment down to 4.7%
Canada’s employment grew strongly by 37k in January, well above expectation of 35k. Unemployment rate fell -0.1% to 5.7%, the first decline since December 2022, and below expectation of a rise to 5.9%. Participation rate fell -0.2% to 65.3%. Employment rate fell -0.1%...
Copper’s Fall An Early Signal of Global Slowdown
Copper exchange prices on Thursday fell to their lowest since November, approaching $8200 a tonne and breaking out of the broad consolidation range of the past two months. A move out of the $8250-8700 range technically leaves copper vulnerable to a quick fall into the...
Still No Clear Trend in Major FX
Markets As was the case since Tuesday, global trading was kept in some kind of holding pattern. Potential drivers were central bank speakers, a US (30-y) auction and the weekly jobless claims. Fed Barkin joined his colleagues in their view that robust demand and...
Bitcoin Rises Ahead of Schedule
Market picture The crypto market capitalisation has hit new highs since 12th January, passing the $1.75 trillion mark. The market has confidently moved into a state of greed, which we also last saw a month ago. Last month’s corrective pullback and early February’s...
GBPJPY Works Towards Uptrend Resumption
GBPJPY surrounded by bullish vibes Could re-activate long-term uptrend Next resistance expected at 189.50 GBPJPY finally closed above the 188.25 region on Thursday, which had been keeping upside movements in control since mid-November, providing a ray of hope that the...
GBPUSD Retreats After Bullish Spike
GBPUSD rests near the 20-period SMA RSI and MACD suggest bearish wave GBPUSD is falling after a bullish spike earlier today, testing the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) in the 4-hour chart. According to technical oscillators, the RSI is still standing below its...
USDCAD Retreats Towards Crucial Trendline
USDCAD gets repeatedly repelled by 1.3543 Latest rejection triggers decline below 200-day SMA Momentum indicators ease but remain positive USDCAD had been staging a solid recovery from its December low of 1.3176, but its advance was rejected twice at the 2024 peak of...
ANZ forecasts RBNZ rate hikes, triggering Kiwi surge and AUD/NZD range breakout
New Zealand Dollar rises broadly today, buoyed by ANZ’s forecast that RBNZ is set to increase the official cash rate in its upcoming meetings on February 22 and again in April, elevating interest rate to 6%. ANZ’s chief economist, Sharon Zollner, highlighted RBNZ’s...
AUD/USD Struggles While NZD/USD Grinds Higher
AUD/USD is declining below the 0.6540 support zone. NZD/USD is rising and could extend its increase above the 0.6130 resistance zone. Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6540 level against...
ECB’s Villeroy confident in Eurozone’s path to overcoming inflation sickness
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau, in an interview with LCI television, anticipates reducing interest rates within the year, marking a significant move away from the aggressive inflation-fighting measures. “We will probably cut rates this year...
Friday FX option expiries | Forexlive
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
AUDJPY’s Gentle Climb Continues – Action Forex
AUDJPY trades higher, clears the 100-day SMA A contracting triangle has been forming as AUDJPY volatility drops Momentum indicators remain uninterested in current upmove AUDJPY is enjoying its fourth consecutive green candle as JPY remains under pressure across the...
Franc and Yen Underperform, Canadian Dollar Anticipates Jobs Report
Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen are currently the weakest performers for the week on a couple of interrelated factors. Firstly, global central bankers are tempering expectations for early rate cuts, suggesting rate difference between SNB/BoJ and other central banks would...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2599; (P) 1.2620; (R1) 1.2650; More… GBP/USD retreated ahead of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2642) and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Above 1.2641 will resume the rebound from 1.2517 to retest 1.2826 high. On the downside, however, decisive break...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0755; (P) 1.0770; (R1) 1.0787; More… EUR/USD is still holding above 1.0722 support and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, decisive break of 1.0722 will argue that whole rise from 1.0447 has completed. Deeper fall would then be seen to...
USD/JPY Slides After BOJ Uchida’s Hawkish Comments
The Japanese yen is down sharply on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.12, up 0.64%. This is the yen’s lowest level against the US dollar since November 27. BoJ’s Uchida hints at policy shift The Bank of Japan dropped its latest hint of a...
EUR/USD Eyes German Inflation – Action Forex
EUR/USD is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0751, down 0.20%. German inflation expected at 0.2% Germany’s CPI is expected at 0.2% m/m on Friday, which would confirm the initial estimate from two weeks earlier. On an...
BTCUSD Advances Towards Crucial Resistance
BTCUSD ascends sharply after claiming 50-day SMA Currently challenges the December peak of 44,785 Momentum indicators are starting to look overbought BTCUSD (Bitcoin) experienced a strong decline from its recent two-year peak of 49,051, dropping to as low as 38,460....
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Japanese stock markets and JPY still account for today’s biggest market move in a telling sign about current market momentum. The Nikkei closed slightly over 2% higher. USD/JPY sets a new YTD high at 149.40 with both the psychologic 150 mark and the 2022...
USD/JPY: Rallies on Diverging BoJ/Fed Rate Outlook
USDJPY rallied on Thursday (up 0.80% until early hours of the US session) as BoJ kept dovish stance in rate talks which deflated yen, while dollar appreciated from growing signs that the Fed would slow the action towards rate cuts in 2024. The pair rose to the highest...
Pound Traders Lock Gaze on UK Inflation and GDP Data
Investors price in rate cuts despite BoE’s ‘higher for longer’ mantra Will the UK CPI and GDP data confirm that view? CPI inflation on Wednesday (07:00 GMT), GDP on Thursday (07:00 GMT) Traders assign an 80% chance of a June BoE rate cut When they last met, Bank of...
Fed’s Barkin: We’ve got some time to be patient
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin highlighted the strength of the labor market and the encouraging trend of decreasing inflation in a Bloomberg TV interview. The cautious yet optimistic outlook grants Fed a period of watchful waiting before starting interest rate...
Dollar Rises on Relative Yield Strength and Economic Optimism
Dollar rises broadly in early US session, standing out in a day characterized by relatively slow news flow. The move in the greenback can be primarily attributed to the rise in US benchmark yields, which outpaced those of other regions, thereby bolstering the...
ECB’s Wunsch sees some value to waiting
ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said today, “I’m on the side of those that believe there’s some value to waiting” before cutting interest rates. Nevertheless, Wunsch also acknowledged the inherent uncertainties in economic forecasting and the eventual need...
US initial jobless claims falls to 218k, vs exp 220k
US initial jobless claims fell -9k to 218k in the week ending February 3, slightly better than expectation of 220k. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 4k to 212k. Continuing claims fell -23k to 1871k in the week ending January 27. Four-week moving...
AUD/USD Outlook: Dips After Soft China CPI Data
AUDUSD eased below 0.6500 mark (cracked Fibo 61.8% of 0.6270/0.6871 rally) on Thursday, deflated by softer than expected China inflation data. Fresh weakness emerged after recovery attempts from 0.6468 (new 2024 low, posted on Feb 5) were repeatedly capped by 100DMA...
WTI Oil Futures Need One More Confirmation
WTI oil aims for some recovery but lacks confidence Price fluctuates within a bullish channel Resistance at 74.40; support at 72.70 WTI oil futures have been tip-toeing higher after last week’s steep downfall paused at the lower boundary of a short-term bullish...
US 30 Index Flirts With All-Time High
US 30 index retains bullish outlook above uptrend line Technical oscillators indicate more gains The US 30 (cash) index is traveling slightly below the all-time high of 38,782 and above the medium-term rising trend line, suggesting a potential move to the upside...
Why Are Chinese Stocks Melting Down?
Chinese stock markets sink to lowest levels in five years Real estate crisis and other problems haunt investors Valuations are cheap, but more is needed for lasting recovery Chinese equities implode It’s been a tough few years for Chinese stock markets. Shares in...
Bitcoin Completes Consolidation and Rushes to the High
Market Picture The crypto market made an impressive move higher, rising 3.4% in 24 hours to $1.71 trillion. The rise to its highest level since 12 January came as the S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 indices hit all-time highs. Bitcoin rose above its 50-day moving average,...
GBP/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2599; (P) 1.2620; (R1) 1.2650; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the upside. Correction from 1.2826 might have completed with three waves down to 1.2517. Further rise would be seen to retest 1.2826 high. On the downside, however,...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.79; (P) 148.02; (R1) 148.42; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 148.79 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rally from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. For now, further rise will remain in favor as long...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0755; (P) 1.0770; (R1) 1.0787; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment, with focus staying on 1.0722 structural support. Decisive break there will argue that whole rise from 1.0447 has completed. Deeper fall would then be...
AUDUSD Bounces Off 2024 Low
AUDUSD hits its lowest level since mid-November Although decline halts, rebound looks unconvincing Momentum indicators remain tilted to the downside AUDUSD has been in a constant decline after peaking at 0.6870 in December, breaking below both its 50- and 200-day...
UK house prices (RICS survey) to highest level since October 2022
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
NZD/USD Rate Recovering from Its Low of the Year amid News from Labour Market
Yesterday’s news showed that New Zealand’s labour market is stronger and more resilient than expected. In the fourth quarter of 2023, employment grew by 0.4% in the fourth quarter (forecast = +0.3%, quarter earlier = -0.1%). The unemployment rate is 4%, forecast =...
FX option expiries for 8 February 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will continue to be reliant on the action in the bond market and overall risk mood mostly. On the former, the push and pull this week is making it tough to gather much conviction....
Yen Weakens Amid BoJ’s Dovish Signals, S&P 500 Poised to Break Through 5000 Milestone
Japanese Yen declines broadly in today’s Asian session, reacting to dovish remarks made by BoJ Deputy Governor. The official’s commentary emphasized a cautious approach to monetary tightening, highlighting that even with exit from negative interest rate policy, the...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0731; (P) 1.0746; (R1) 1.0770; More… No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Focus remains on 1.0722 structural support. Decisive break there will argue that whole rise from 1.0447 has completed. Deeper fall would then be...
AUDUSD: Initiating Macro Bearish Reversal
Bearish Scenario: Selling below 0.6516 with TP1: 0.65, TP2: 0.6487, and upon its breakout TP3: 0.6469. It is recommended to place a stop loss above 0.6541, at least 1% of the account capital. Trailing stop can be used. Bullish Scenario: Buying above 0.6540 with TP1:...
EUR/GBP One Step Away from a Descending Stair
The euro is back at 0.8520 against the pound. The pair bounced off this level in June and August last year. Reaching the same level in late January triggered a shake-out, but active declines resumed on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the pair is testing multi-month lows...
EURJPY Rotates Lower as Rebound Falters
EURJPY bounces back after 50-day SMA prevents decline But reverses lower again, finding support at descending trendline Momentum indicators are neutral-to-negative EURJPY has been sliding lower in the short term, following its rejection at 161.85 in late January....
What Impact Will Canada’s Employment Figures Have on Loonie?
Canada’s economy likely added more jobs in January Ivey PMIs rises to its highest level in 9 months BoC summary of deliberations gets releasedon Wednesday Loonie rises ahead of Friday’s data due at 13:30 GMT In Canada, a number of data releases are scheduled for this...
Australia & New Zealand: What’s Up For The Down Under Economies?
Summary The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its policy rate steady at 4.35% this week as expected, and its accompanying announcement was more hawkish than expected. The RBA did not rule out a further increase in interest rates, saying inflation—especially...
XAU/USD: Gold Remains in Prolonged Consolidation Before Larger Bulls Resume
Short-term action remains in a sideways mode after the metal’s price spiked to new record high ($2141) in early December, holding within $1973/$2088 range, but mainly above psychological $2000 level, which adds to positive bias. Gold is consolidating after Oct-Dec...
WTI Oil: Recovery Extends into Third Day But Risk of Stall Exists
WTI oil price extends recovery from new multi-week low ($71.40) into third consecutive day. Profit-taking after last week’s 8.1% drop was contained by 200WMA, lifted the price along with lower than expected increase in US crude inventories (API report) and cut in...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets In the absence of key eco data, both in the US and Europe, central bankers’ talk today was again earmarked as the main guide for bond markets. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel in the FT gave an in extenso assessment on the importance of the ECB walking the...
Sterling and Euro Gain on Central Bank Patience, Swiss Franc Falls
Sterling, and to a lesser extent, Euro, are propelled slightly higher by hawkish comments from key figures in BoE and ECB. These officials have adopted a stance of patience, preferring to wait for additional economic data before making any decisions on interest rate...
Fed’s Kashkari sees only two or three rate cuts this year
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari offered a more conservative outlook on policy loosening compared to market expectations. In a conversation with CNBC today, Kashkari indicated his anticipation of only two or three interest rate cuts throughout 2024, a stance...
NZD/USD Shrugs after NZ Employment Report
New Zealand’s unemployment rises, wages ease The New Zealand dollar is drifting on Wednesday, after jumping 0.73% a day earlier. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6104, up 0.12%. New Zealand’s employment change rises New Zealand’s employment...
EUR/USD Drops Again While USD/CHF Regains Strength
EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.0810 support. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a move toward the 0.8800 resistance. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0900 resistance and declined against the US...
EUR/AUD Technical: AUD Weakness Stalling after RBA’s Cautionary Stance on Inflation
Despite a recent slowdown in Australia’s monthly CPI for December 2023, the Australian central bank, RBA has chosen to remain on the cautious side and push back rate cut expectations. RBA’s monetary policy statement has stated that service inflation may remain sticky...
NZDUSD Bounces Off 2-month Low
NZDUSD extends its bearish leg below 200-day SMA But manages to rebound strongly from 2-month bottom Oscillators remain tilted to the downside NZDUSD has been in a steady downtrend since its rejection from near 0.6373 in late December, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci...
Ethereum Nears Recent Turning Point
Market Picture The crypto market cap remained at $1.65 trillion. Bitcoin spent another day almost unchanged at $42.8K. Ethereum was a major growth driver, gaining 1.6% on the day to $2,350 and reversing to the downside as it approached $2,400. This is the same place...
BoE’s Breeden highlights coming months as incredibly important to inflation and wage assessment
BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden indicated in a speech growing confidence that further tightening of rates might not be necessary. She noted a pivotal shift in focus towards “how long rates need to remain at their current level.” Breeden underscored the importance of...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 186.12; (P) 186.45; (R1) 186.71; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, firm break of 187.60 will turn bias to the upside for 188.90. Break there will confirm resumption of larger up trend. Meanwhile,...
A Tug of War Between Hawks and Doves
The selloff in US sovereign bonds reversed yesterday after a solid demand for the US 3-year bond auction counterweighed a bulk of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) members. The Fed members are on the battlefield, fighting the doves. Loretta Mester said there...
Chinese Investors Still Ponder Impact of Authorities to Arrest Equity Sell-off
Markets Amid a very thin eco calendar, core bonds yesterday found some relief after the self-off that started with Powell’s push back against early rate cuts last Wednesday, reinforced by an exceptionally strong payrolls report and solid services ISM afterwards....
ECB’s Schnabel: Incoming data signals tough final stretch in inflation battle
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel highlighted in an FT interview the challenges facing Eurozone as it approaches what she terms the “last mile” in the fight against inflation. Despite rapid disinflation experienced due to the reversal of supply-side shocks,...
USDJPY Hovers Above a Key Support Area
USDJPY is in the red again today, reacts to last week’s jump It continues to hover a tad above its 100-day SMA Most momentum indicators tentatively support the ongoing upleg USDJPY is recording its second consecutive red candle, recouping a good part of last week’s...
FX option expiries for 7 February 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of for the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0725 level. The price action so far today might not be suggestive of one to see the expiries come into play. However, it does run near the December low of 1.0723 -...
Commodity Currencies in Fragile Rebound, Await Concrete Market Stabilization Moves from China
Commodity currencies are the main movers in Asian markets today, gaining broadly, albeit against a backdrop of continued weak momentum. This situation unfolds as Chinese stocks carry forward their rebound from earlier this week, showcasing a divergence from Hong...
Gold Flips Backwards But Still Shines Above 2,000
Gold loses ground after hitting tough resistance Lacks bullish signals but pattern of higher lows remains intact Gold could not mark a new higher high above January’s tough resistance of 2,065, correcting lower to close around its 50-day exponential moving average...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8669; (P) 0.8694; (R1) 0.8731; More…. Break of 0.8272 resistance suggest that USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.8332 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9243 to 0.8332 at 0.8995 next. On...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.33; (P) 148.62; (R1) 148.96; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as intraday bias stays neutral. Focus stays on 148.79 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rally from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. For now, further rise will...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2488; (P) 1.2566; (R1) 1.2614; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias remains on the downside. Strong support could be seen from 1.2499 structural support. Break of 1.2628 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0714; (P) 1.0751; (R1) 1.0778; More… No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside. Focus remains on 1.0722 structural support. Decisive break there will argue that whole rise from 1.0447 has completed. Deeper fall would...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Core bonds, US Treasuries in particular, opened higher in an attempt to recoup some of the Powell-Payrolls-ISM triple whammy they suffered over the previous days. But US yields shedding between 0.1 and 3 bps across the curve is nothing compared to the 30bps+...
Is German Industry Ready for Revival?
Industrial orders rose 8.9% in December against expectations for a 0.1% decline, a rare positive for Germany that the euro chose to ignore. This is the most robust monthly increase since mid-2020’s lockdowns. In the same month last year, the increase was 2.7%. A...
Japanese Yen Calm After Mixed Spending and Income Data
The Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.56, down 0.09%. Japan released mixed data on Monday. Average Cash Earnings for December rebounded with a 1% gain, following a 0.2% gain in November. This...
ECB’s Vujcic: We need some patience now
In an interview with Reuters, ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic emphasized the need for “patience” in the current monetary policy environment. He acknowledged the positive disinflationary trends observed so far. However, “we still see also quite a lot of...
NZD/USD Calm Ahead of NZ Job Data
New Zealand’s job growth expected to rise to 0.2% The New Zealand dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. Early in the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6052, down 0.03%. New Zealand job growth expected to rebound New Zealand releases the...
Dollar in Consolidation Mode as Kiwi Eyes Upcoming NZ Job Data
Dollar is largely in a state of consolidation today, except with a minor uptick observed against Swiss Franc. In the absence of significant economic data from the US, market participants are poised to gauge the sentiment from forthcoming comments by Fed officials....
BoE Dhingra urges not to take risk on the economy
In a Financial Times interview, BoE MPC member Swati Dhingra articulated her concerns regarding the UK’s economic outlook and inflationary trends. As the sole member to vote for a rate cut in the last meeting, she cautioned against underestimating the downside risks...
Australian Dollar Yawns as RBA Stands Pat
The Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday, after the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6493, up 0.61%. RBA maintains rates The RBA left interest rates unchanged at 4.35% at its first...
Gold Flips Backwards But Still Shines Above 2,000
Gold loses ground after hitting tough resistance Lacks bullish signals but pattern of higher lows remains intact Gold could not mark a new higher high above January’s tough resistance of 2,065, correcting lower to close around its 50-day exponential moving average...
Eurozone retail sales falls -1.1%mom, EU down -1.0%
Eurozone retail sales fell -1.1% mom in December, worse than expectation of -1.0% mom. Volume of retail trade decreased by -1.6% mom for food, drinks and tobacco, by -1.0% mom for non-food products and by -0.5% mom for automotive fuels. EU retail sales fell -1.0% mom....
Bitcoin is Looking at Stocks, and That’s Worrisome
Market picture The crypto market remains stable while waiting for further signals. The crypto cap is up 0.4% in 24 hours to $1.64 trillion. Bitcoin is trading at $42.7K – virtually unchanged in 24 hours, just 1.4% lower than a week ago and a 1.8% decrease over 30...
RBA’s Hawkish Surprise Temporarily Boosted Aussie But Failed to Turn It Around
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% for the third consecutive meeting. The markets widely expected the decision, but the tone of the accompanying commentary was more hawkish than the market had anticipated, adding to Aussie buying. The...
AUD/USD Rate Rises after RBA Decision
This morning the Central Bank of Australia decided to keep the interest rate at the same level = 4.35%, as expected. However, RBA management said that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out as inflation is still too high. This is a clear signal that policy easing is...
ECB consumer survey reveals declining inflation expectations
ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for December highlighted a noteworthy trend in consumer sentiment regarding inflation and economic growth. In a positive development, consumers’ inflation expectations for the next 12 months have decreased for the third consecutive...
NZD: Unemployment Rate Could Weaken NZD
Traders are closely monitoring Fed speeches, particularly Fed’s Mester speech scheduled for Tuesday, for further insights into monetary policy directions. Additionally, market participants await key economic releases later in the week, including New Zealand’s...
GBPUSD Plummets to 2-month Low
GBPUSD tests 200-day SMA after strong sell-off Prices break trading range to the downside Outlook looks bearish in short-term GBPUSD plunged to a new almost two-month low of 1.2517 on Monday’s session, falling beneath the short-term trading range and the 200-day...
FX option expiries for 6 February 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of for the day. As such, trading sentiment will continue to revolve around the action in the bond market and risk mood mostly. For now, it seems like the dollar is taking a step back after the gains yesterday.As for the...
Aussie Recovers with RBA Hold and China Stocks Rally, But Momentum Tepid
Australian Dollar recovered mildly today, but momentum is so far limited. While RBA softened the hawkish stances after standing pat on rates, the left is still left open for more tightening. Governor Michele Bullock emphasized in the post-meeting press conference that...
EUR/USD: Bears Tighten Grip After Break of Another Strong Support
EURUSD remains firmly in red and hits two-month low on Monday morning, in extension of Friday’s 0.8% drop (the biggest daily loss since Jan 2). Fresh weakness broke through significant support at 1.0776 (100DMA) increasing pressure on next pivotal supports at...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0747; (P) 1.0822; (R1) 1.0864; More… EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1138 continues today, and the break of trend line in 4H MACD indicates downside acceleration. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained break of 1.0722 structural support will argue...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2574; (P) 1.2673; (R1) 1.2732; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is back on the downside as the fall from 1.2826 resumes. Strong focus could be seen from 1.2499 structural support. Break of 1.2643 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8588; (P) 0.8634; (R1) 0.8716; More…. USD/CHF is still capped below 0.8727 resistance and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, above 0.8727 will resume the rebound from 0.8332, and target 61.8% retracement of 0.9243 to 0.8332 at...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.85; (P) 146.48; (R1) 147.07; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as focus remains on 148.79 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rally from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. For now, further rise will remain in favor as long as...
ISM services rises to 53.4, employment expands, price index leaps
US ISM Services PMI marked a significant uptick from 50.6 to 53.4 in January, above expectation of 52.1. This highlights a strengthening in the services sector A closer look at the index components reveals stable business activity level, with the production sub-index...
USD Strengthens Following Strong Employment Data
The US dollar has seen a significant increase in strength against the Euro, with the EUR/USD pair falling to 1.0770 by Monday morning. This movement is largely attributed to the recent release of robust employment sector reports in the US for January, which have...
ISM Shows Services Sector Expansion Accelerates in January
The ISM Services PMI jumped to 53.4 in January from 50.6 in December, comfortably beating the 52.0 consensus expectation. Ten industries out of 18 reported growth for the month – up from nine in December. The business activity sub-index was unchanged at 55.8, while...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets: The payrolls-Powell combo resonated through today’s European trading session in absence of other data/events. It put core bonds under further pressure from the start with US Treasuries underperforming German Bunds. Recall that Powell ruled out a March rate...
Fed’s Kashkari: Monetary policy may not be as tight as assumed
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari argued in an essay that Fed’s current monetary policy stance “may not be as tight as we would have assumed”. This would afford Fed valuable leeway to sift through incoming economic data before deciding on any reduction to the...
EURCAD Selling Perfectly From The Blue Box Area
In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of EURCAD 1-Hour Elliott wave Charts that we presented to our members. In which, the decline from the 1/25/2024 peak took place as an impulsive structure and showed a lower sequence with a...
Dollar’s Dominance Continues, Sterling and Euro Accelerate Down
Dollar’s robust rally persists in early US session, and gains momentum alongside the strong rise 10-year yield, now surpassing the 4.1% mark. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments in CBS interview air during the weekend continued to shift market expectations. The...
Euro Falls to Two-Month Low
EUR/USD has extended its losses on Monday. In the European session, the euro is trading at 1.0749, down 0.34%. Earlier, the euro fell as low as 1.0747, its lowest level since December 11. Red-hot nonfarm payrolls boosts US dollar The US dollar ended the week with...
GBP/USD: Cable Falls Further as Solid US NFP Lift Dollar
Cable extends strong fall into second consecutive day, remaining under increased pressure from stronger dollar after upbeat US labor data and relatively hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell. Fresh extension lower on Monday cracked the floor of near-term range...
AUD/USD Eyes RBA Rate Decision
The Australian dollar is slightly lower on Monday, after sliding 0.90% on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6499, down 0.21%. Earlier, AUD/USD traded as low as 0.6486, its lowest level since mid-November. RBA set to hold rates The Reserve Bank...
OECD raises global growth forecasts to 2.9% in 2024 on robust US performance
OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook report presents a cautiously optimistic upgrade in global growth forecasts for 2024 to 2.9% (up from November’s 2.7% forecast), a notable uplift largely attributed to stronger performance of US economy. “Some moderation of...
USDJPY Stops Beneath 2-month High
USDJPY trades sideways after failing to extend its breakout RSI and MACD are hovering in their positive regions Stochastic indicates overstretched market USDJPY came close to breaking the 148.81 level in the preceding week, recording a two-month high. According to the...
Eurozone PPI down -0.8% mom, -10.6% yoy in Dec
Eurozone PPI was down -0.8% mom, -10.6% yoy in December, versus expectation of -0.8% mom, -10.6% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices decreased by -2.3% mom for energy and by -0.3% mom for intermediate goods, while prices remained stable for both capital...
Eurozone Sentix rises to -12.9, Germany a negative economic pull
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index climbed for the fourth consecutive month to -12.9, marking its highest point since April 2023. Both Current Situation Index, now at -20.0 (its peak since June 2023), and Expectations Index, reaching -5.5 (the highest since...
Eurozone PMI services finalized at 48.4, Southern strength versus Northern softness
Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 48.4 in January, down slightly from December’s 48.8. PMI Composite was finalized at 47.9, up from prior month’s 47.6, a 6-month high. The data reveals a striking “north-south divide”, challenging conventional perceptions. Spain...
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Dollar Strengthening Prospects Increase Throughout January, a series of indicators: GDP, employment, and retail sales, consistently highlighted the strength of the US economy. The threat of recession diminished, and it became evident that the high interest...
It Might Take Until Summer for Fed to Start Easing Cycle
Markets Fed Chair Powell signaled last week that the Fed wants additional confirmation that the economy is on a path that should bring inflation back to 2% in a sustainable way, even as inflation developed favorably over the past six months. The labour market in this...
FX option expiries for 5 February 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for USD/JPY at the 148.00 mark. However, it isn't a level which holds much technical significance at the moment although there might be some bids lined up there on the day. As such, it could help to...
Continued Ascendancy of Dollar Awaits Validation from ISM Services Data
Dollar strengthens broadly in Asian session today, extending last week’s late rebound. This uptick comes in the wake of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s interview on 60 Minutes, where he reiterated the premature nature of interest rate cuts in March. He also highlighted the...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s pull back from 1.6671 extended to as low as 1.6348 last week but rebounded since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6671 will revive the case that whole correction from 1.7062 has completed with three waves...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP edged lower to 0.8512 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some more consolidations. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8591 resistance holds. Below 0.8512 will resume the decline from 0.8713 to...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
While EUR/JPY’s correction from 161.84 extended to 158.06, it drew some support from 158.55 and near term rising channel and rebounded. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 160.25 will indicate that rise from 153.15 is ready to...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF dipped further to 0.8550 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first On the upside, above 0.8727 will resume the rebound from 0.8332, and target 61.8% retracement of 0.9243 to 0.8332 at 0.8995. On the downside, below 0.8550...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s sideway consolidation continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained above 1.2499 support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.2774 resistance will...
Investor Optimism Pushes Stocks to New Heights, While Dollar Rallies as March Fed Cut Speculation Subsides
This past week in the financial markets has been nothing short of a rollercoaster, with Dollar clinching the title of the strongest currency amidst considerable volatility. The narrative that dominated was the dissipating likelihood of a March rate cut by Fed. But at...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s decline from 1.1138 extended lower last week but continued to lose downside momentum. Break of 1.0779 will resume the fall, but considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, downside could be contained by 1.0722 support. On the upside, break of...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY dipped to 145.88 last week as consolidation from 148.79 extended, but rebounded strongly since then. Initial focus now on 148.79 this week. Firm break there will resume the rally from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. For now, further rise will remain...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s pull back from 188.90 extended to 185.21 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Firm break of 187.60 will turn bias to the upside for 188.90. Break there will confirm resumption of larger up trend. Meanwhile, below...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD’s correction from 1.3540 extended lower to 1.3357 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.3540 will resume the rise from 1.3176. That will also revive that case that whole fall from 1.3897 has...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s decline from 0.6870 resumed last week and edged lower to 0.6501. Initial bias is now on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6524 from 0.6621 at 0.6407. On the upside, break of 0.6621 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming....
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s pull backed from 0.9471 continued last week but lost momentum and turned sideway after hitting 0.9304. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. While another decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained above 0.9252 low to bring rebound. On...
BoE’s Pill advocates patience, rate cut remains some way off
BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill articulated a cautious stance on the prospect of interest rate cuts, noting that such a move remains “some way off.” He underscored the absence of adequate evidence suggesting a trajectory towards the inflation target, which necessitates a...
Canada’s January Unemployment Rate to Hit 5.9%—Highest Since Pandemic
Canadian jobs numbers for January will be centre stage next Friday as policymakers and market watchers look for signs of deterioration in the labour market. The data for the first month of 2024 will tell a similar story to the one we have observed over 2023—employment...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: A March Rate Cut Bites the Dust
Summary United States: A March Rate Cut Bites the Dust It was a busy week for economic data, but Friday’s employment report stole the show. Nonfarm payrolls rose 353K in January, almost double the consensus expectation. While we suspect the Federal Reserve will put...
