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AUD/USD’s strong was rebound last week was capped below 0.6666 resistance, and followed by equally steep decline. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, with focus on 0.6503 support. Decisive break there will indicate that larger fall from 0.6870 is ready to resume, and turn bias to the downside for 0.6442 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6633 resistance holds, in case of recovery.


In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.


In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.



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