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EUR/CHF’s rally accelerated to as high as 0.9786 last week. But a temporary top should be formed after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9252 at 0.9773. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by 0.9557 support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9786 will resume the rally towards 1.0095 resistance next.


In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.9252 already, on bullish convergence condition in W MACD. Rise from there would now target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.9535) holds.


In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.



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