Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari offered a more conservative outlook on policy loosening compared to market expectations. In a conversation with CNBC today, Kashkari indicated his anticipation of only two or three interest rate cuts throughout 2024, a stance that contrasts sharply with the more aggressive predictions circulating in financial markets, where fed fund futures suggest the possibility of up to five quarter-point cuts before year-end.
“Sitting here today, I would say, two or three cuts would seem to be appropriate for me right now,” Kashkari remarked, emphasizing a cautious approach rooted in current economic data.
Kashkari’s comments highlight the central role of inflation data in shaping Fed’s policy decisions. With recent data trends being “resoundingly positive,” the path forward for rate adjustments hinges on continued favorable inflation reports.
“And then the question will simply be, at what pace do we then start to adjust rates back down?” he added.
Moreover, Kashkari introduced the notion of a potentially prolonged environment of elevated interest rates, suggesting that current economic conditions might necessitate higher rates for an extended period. “There are compelling arguments to suggest we could be in a longer, higher rate environment going forward,” he remarked.