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GBP/USD’s decline last week indicates short term topping at 1.2892. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 1.2673). Firm break there will bring deeper fall to 1.2517 structural support. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 1.2822 minor resistance holds, in case of recovery.


In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg, which is still in progress. But upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2517 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.


In the long term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.0351 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. But momentum of the rebound from 1.3051 argues GBP/USD is merely in consolidation, rather than trend reversal. Range trading is likely between 1.0351/4248 for some more time.



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