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EUR/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and surged to 165.33. But as a temporary top was formed with subsequent retreat, initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations. Downside should be contained by 55 4H EMA (now at 163.23) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 153.15 to 163.70 from 160.20 at 166.71.


In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low), which is still in progress. Next target is 169.96 (2008 high). Break of 160.20 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.


In the long term picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 114.42 at 170.07 which is close to 169.96 (2008 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 153.15 support holds.



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