The president of the Richmond Federal Reserve said the central bank is making “good progress” in slowing inflation, but he was unwilling to commit to a specific timetable for cutting interest rates.
“I think you have to acknowledge that the data has come in pretty nicely,” said Thomas Barkin said in a video interview with Yahoo Finance. He was referring to a series of recent reports that show a softening economy and waning inflation.
Yet Barkin stressed it was premature to begin plotting the Fed’s first rate cut. He noted that inflation was still running above the bank’s 2% target and has proven more stubborn than expected.
“We’re not yet done with inflation,” he said. The current rate of inflation ranges from 3.0% to 3.7%, depending on the measure.
If inflation continues to slow at the current pace, however, the Fed “would of course respond appropriately” by cutting interest rates, Barkin said.
The Fed last week left its benchmark short-term interest rate unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the Fed would be prepared to cut rates next year if inflation slowed further.
His comments ignited a stock rally and drove down long-term interest rates not directly controlled by the Fed, raising Wall Street expectations that a rate cut could come as soon as March.
Since the end of the Fed’s meeting last week, a stream of senior officials have tried to pour cold water on the idea that rates would be cut soon. The Chicago Fed president even said he was “confused” by the market reaction.
Barkin noted that financial markets have consistently forecast lower rates than the Fed and have usually been wrong. Investors should judge accordingly, he said.
