Trump wins, DeSantis edges Haley for second place, Ramaswamy ends campaign

Trump called for unity, and even offered a hint of praise for his rivals, in a victory speech that seemed to regard the rest of the primary, and his selection as the Republican nominee, as a foregone conclusion.

It’s “time now, for everybody, our country, to come together,” Trump told a crowd of his supporters in Des Moines following NBC News’ projection that he would easily win the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses.

“I want to congratulate Ron and Nikki for having a good time together,” he said of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Amb. Nikki Haley. Trump noted that the second-place results were still yet to be determined.

Trump then cycled through a generalized laundry list of policies and issues he planned to address if reelected to the White House, including a plan to “seal up” the U.S.-Mexico border and “rebuild our cities.”

He also once again gave oxygen to the false conspiracy claim that his 2020 election loss was rigged, as he vowed to “straighten out our elections” and advocate for the use of paper ballots.

He had no magnanimity to spare for President Joe Biden, his likely competitor in the 2024 general election, calling him the worst president to ever to hold the office.

Trump was joined on the Des Moines stage by North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a one-time Republican primary rival who endorsed Trump a day earlier, along with some of his family members and other supporters.

— Kevin Breuninger

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will finish second in the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, NBC News projects.

Former United Nations Amb. Nikki Haley will take third place, NBC projects.

— Kevin Breuninger

Vivek Ramaswamy suspended his GOP presidential candidacy and immediately endorsed Donald Trump.

Ramaswamy’s decision came after a fourth-place performance in Iowa’s caucuses.

“As of this moment, we are going to suspend this presidential campaign,” Ramaswamy told supporters. “There is no path for me to be the next president, absent things that we don’t want to see happen in this country.”

“We’re going to do our part now going forward to make sure that America First lives on, to make sure that Donald Trump is successful as the next President of the United States,” he said.

– Dan Mangan and Rebecca Picciotto

Roughly 100,000 Iowans turned out to the Republican caucuses Monday evening in the face of blizzard conditions and subzero temperatures, he Iowa GOP said.

NBC News initially expected 150,000 caucusgoers to show up. The 2016 Republican caucus was 186,874.

“Iowans braved record-low temperatures after a blizzard blanketed their state just days earlier to deliberate with members of their community about the future of our country and participate in true, grassroots democracy,” the Iowa GOP said in a statement.

The Republican caucuses have no remote option so anyone who wanted to participate on Monday evening had to brave the extreme cold to do so.

— Rebecca Picciotto

Donald Trump won the Iowa caucus despite spending only around $44,000 on advertisements targeting Iowa voters on Facebook and Instagram in the week ahead of the caucuses, according to data from the Meta ad library reviewed by CNBC.

The sum is slightly less than the $45,000 spent by businessman Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign on Meta ads that same week.

Americans for Prosperity Action, a super PAC that has backed Nikki Haley, put up around $43,000 for Meta ads in Iowa starting Jan. 7.

This was just a small slice of the $419,000 total that AFP Action spent nationwide that week on Meta ads to help Haley.

– Brian Schwartz

A solid majority of caucusgoers would support a federal law to ban most or all abortions.

NBC News’ entrance poll found that 59% of Iowa Republican caucus attendees would be in favor of a “federal law banning most or all abortions nationwide.”

Another 36% of respondents said they opposed such a federal law.

Nonetheless, only12% of caucusgoers said abortion was the most important issue facing the United States.

The U.S. Supreme Court in 2022 overturned its ruling in the case Roe v. Wade, which for a half-century established a constitutional right to abortion. Since then, the power to restrict or permit abortions has been effectively left up to individual states.

But abortion rights since has also proved to be a fraught issue for Republicans politically in a number of states.

Voters in favor of abortion rights in seven states, four of them solidly Republican, won ballot initiatives related to abortion restrictions.

Support for abortion rights also was seen as a deciding favor in the re-election of Kentucky’s governor, Democrats winning control of both legislative chambers in Virginia, and liberals winning a majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

– Dan Mangan

A super PAC backing former President Donald Trump is urging his remaining Republican primary rivals to give up, in the wake of Trump’s swiftly projected victory in Iowa.

“Every dollar spent by President Trump’s primary losers is a dollar that could be fighting Joe Biden,” said Alex Pfeiffer, communications director for Make America Great Again Inc., in a statement.

“Once the DC RINOs are finished crying in their cocktails over tonight’s results, it’s time for Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy to face reality and stop wasting time and resources,” Pfeiffer said.

— Kevin Breuninger

Fresh off his projected victory in the Iowa Republican caucuses, Donald Trump is headed to court, NBC News reported, citing a source familiar with the former president’s travel plans.

Trump intends to travel to New York City to attend the start of the civil defamation trial brought by the writer E. Jean Carroll, who accuses Trump of defaming her after she accused him of sexually assaulting her decades earlier.

Trump will then head to Atkinson, New Hampshire, to appear at a previously scheduled rally starting at 5 p.m. ET, NBC confirmed.

— Kevin Breuninger

Ron DeSantis campaign spokesman Andrew Romeo called it “outrageous” that media outlets, including NBC News, projected Donald Trump would win the Iowa caucuses.

“Absolutely outrageous that the media would participate in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote. The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet,” Romeo said in a post on X.

NBC News has yet to project the second and third place spots.

– Brian Schwartz

Turnout at the Republican caucus is lower than originally expected, based on NBC News entrance polls and initial vote returns.

NBC currently estimates that there will be 130,000 caucus voters.

In 2020, when the Democratic caucus was competitive, more than 176,000 people caucused.

Turnout was even higher in 2016 for that year’s Republican nominating contest: 186,874 caucusgoers.

— Dan Mangan

Sixty-four percent of caucusgoers said Donald Trump would be fit to be president even if he were convicted of a crime, according to NBC News entrance polls.

Just 31% of respondents said Trump would not be fit to serve in the White House if convicted of a crime.

Trump was indicted in four separate criminal cases last year, two of which relate to his efforts to overturn his loss in the 2020 election to President Joe Biden.

In one federal case, Trump is charged with crimes connected to his refusal to return classified government documents after leaving the White House.

He also is charged in New York state court in Manhattan with falsifying business records related to a hush money payment his then-lawyer paid porn star Stormy Daniels to keep her quiet before the 2016 election about their alleged sexual tryst years earlier.

– Dan Mangan

Iowa Republican Caucus attendees ranked immigration as the most important issue facing the country, followed closely by the economy, according to an NBC News entrance poll.

Both issues lead with 37% and 36%, respectively — by over 20 percentage points over abortion and foreign policy, which are top issues for only 11% or respondents each.

Donald Trump’s supporters were most likely to name immigration as their top issue at 44%, while 38% said immigration.

Among Nikki Haley’s supporters, the economy was the top concern (28%), followed by foreign policy (27%), immigration (26%) and abortion (19%).

—Chelsey Cox 

Former President Donald Trump is the winner of the Iowa Republican caucuses, NBC News projects.

The call came less than an hour after the proceedings began.

— Kevin Breuninger

A sizable majority of Iowa Republican caucusgoers said they do not believe President Joe Biden legitimately defeated former President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election, an early NBC News entrance poll found.

Only 30% of respondents believed Biden won the election fair and square. Another 65% said they think Biden did not win legitimately, according to the survey of 551 GOP caucus attendees.

Among respondents who support Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, or former United Nations Amb. Nikki Haley, however, more said they believed Biden’s victory was legitimate, the poll showed.

— Kevin Breuninger

Heads she wins, tails she’s still, well, in the game.

Nikki Haley’s campaign believes that “second place is a thunderclap and third is still the status quo,” a person familiar with the campaign’s thinking told NBC News.

Haley in recent months has risen in public opinion polls in Iowa, while Ron DeSantis, who is battling her for second place to Donald Trump there, has slumped after putting most of his resources in the state.

“This is now a two-person race between Nikki and Trump, and we’re ready,” her campaign says.

– Dan Mangan

Caucusgoers said that a candidate who shares their values is the most likely factor in deciding whom to support.

Forty percent of respondents to an NBC News entrance poll, when asked about a quality that led them to back a candidate, said someone who “shares my values.”

A candidate who “fights for people like me,” was a close second, at 34% of respondents.

Just 10% of caucusgoers said a candidate who “can defeat [Joe] Biden” mattered most to them.

– Dan Mangan

Ron DeSantis made his final pitch to Iowa flanked by Republican Rep. Tom Massie of Kentucky and Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, two hardline conservative House members.

Massie and Roy have relentlessly campaigned for DeSantis, issuing strong criticisms of Trump’s legacy along the way. Denouncing Trump while also aligning with Republican hardliners leaves Massie and Roy in a camp of their own.

“I know politically it’s dangerous. They’re saying I won’t get elected. I don’t care. I’m doing it because it’s the right thing,” Massie said at one of DeSantis’ final Iowa events on Monday. “This is the guy who needs to be president.”

“I’m here because he will offer a future for my son and daughter that we can be proud of, someone they can look up to in the Oval Office. That matters,” Roy echoed.

After nearly 200 Iowa events since May 2023, DeSantis on Monday urged caucusgoers to “bring as many people out as you can” to bear the subzero temperatures and cast ballots for him.

Along with Massie and Roy, DeSantis has the support of key Iowan figures like Gov. Kim Reynolds and evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.

In recent weeks DeSantis has changed his bullish tone on Iowa, shifting from self-assured declarations that he would win the Hawkeye State to calling himself the “underdog.”

For DeSantis, reeling back expectations might be the most effective way to defy them. He currently holds third place behind Nikki Haley and Trump, according to the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll.

— Rebecca Picciotto

It’s still too early to project a winner in the Iowa Republican caucuses, but early results show Donald Trump leading, according to NBC News.

Results from caucuses around the state will continue streaming in for the rest of the night.

– Dan Mangan

With pre-caucus polls and other indicators signaling an easy victory in Iowa for former President Donald Trump, his two top rivals are laying the groundwork to claim that coming in second, or even third, could still count as a success.

Former United Nations Amb. Nikki Haley’s campaign is looking to leapfrog Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has heavily focused his campaign on Iowa.

But even if Haley comes in third in the caucus, she won’t consider it a cause for alarm: Her campaign, which has surged in the polls in recent months, wasn’t widely expected to trounce DeSantis in Des Moines anyway. She also appears to be far ahead of DeSantis in New Hampshire, which will hold its crucial GOP primary election next week.

DeSantis, meanwhile, is working to establish that a third-place finish would be a disaster for Haley. His campaign, and the super PACs backing his presidential bid, have sought to wield the nascent hype for Haley as a cudgel, hoping that she will underperform expectations and lose momentum.

The governor’s campaign in a press release highlighted hopeful comments from Haley’s supporters, including New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, to argue, “It is 2nd place or bust for Wall Street funded Nikki Haley in Iowa.”

Earlier Monday, the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down claimed in a press release, “Anything less than a ‘strong second’ in Iowa for Haley will be an embarrassing loss.”

— Kevin Breuninger

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie may have already ended his 2024 presidential campaign, but Iowa Republicans can still cast a ballot for him.

The Republican Party of Iowa said in a press release that the forms it is using to tally voters’ presidential preferences “went into production well before Christie suspended his campaign last week.”

The caucus will offer seven Republicans to caucusgoers, and tally results for each one: Christie, former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former United Nations Amb. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Arkansans Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and pastor and entrepreneur Ryan Binkley.

The party will also include an “other” column for other names selected.

— Kevin Breuninger

Donald Trump worked the phones from the Des Moines Hotel on a bitterly cold caucus day, despite urging Iowans to endure the subzero temperatures to caucus for him, campaign sources told NBC News.

The Republican frontrunner only stepped outside for lunch, according to the campaign sources.

Trump spent the day holding tele-rallies, directly calling caucus chairs and doing radio interviews. Hew told caucus captains to keep an eye out for misinformation, echoing a similar message he posted on Truth Social.

Meanwhile, Trump’s chief rivals, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, all left their respective hotels to hold in-person events and pitch themselves as the best alternative to Trump.

— Rebecca Picciotto

Former President Donald Trump’s son Eric Trump is taking aim at his father’s rival Nikki Haley by arguing the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations is a “puppet” of BlackRock, a massive investment advisory firm.

The video lacks a key detail: Trump maintained a very public alliance with BlackRock’s CEO, Larry Fink, throughout his presidency.

“Larry did a great job for me.  He managed a lot of my money, and, I have to tell you, he got me great returns last year,” Trump said at the White House in 2017.

Trump later turned to Fink for guidance during the height of the coronavirus pandemic.

“People like Larry Fink we’re talking to, that’s BlackRock — we have the smartest people, and they all want to do it,” Trump told reporters at the time. “This, to them, they love this country, they all want to do it, so we’re speaking to people like that and they’ll be able to work it out.”

Haley met with Fink and other business leaders last year during a campaign meet and greet.

A spokesman for BlackRock did not respond to a request for comment.

– Brian Schwartz

Vivek Ramaswamy logged his final Iowa campaign rally on Monday afternoon, punctuating a ground game that has far outpaced his competitors with over 300 events.

From May 2023 until now, Ramaswamy has managed to visit all of Iowa’s 99 counties — twice.

Ron DeSantis visited all 99 counties once. Meanwhile, Nikki Haley visited 30 counties and Donald Trump visited 15 as of Sunday, according to NBC News.

But despite their apparent lag on the retail politics, Trump and Haley currently lead the pack.

Joining Ramaswamy at his final event was his wife, Apoorva, and former Iowa Rep. Steve King.

“Vote for somebody who’s going to speak the truth,” was Ramaswamy’s final message to Iowans hours before the caucuses began.

— Rebecca Picciotto

Donald Trump is widely viewed as the favorite to win the Iowa caucus by leaders of corporate America. What these executives are watching closely is the margin of Trump’s victory, according to strategists who spoke to CNBC Monday night.

“The view from the C-suite is that the cake is already baked in terms of Trump winning, but the question is by what margin he wins by?,” Evan Siegfried, the president of Somm Consulting and a crisis communications advisor, told CNBC. “The bigger it is, the more likely they [corporate leaders] will price in a Trump nomination and factor it into their 2024-2025 plans.”

Matt Mackowiak, a Texas corporate consultant, said his clients are keeping an eye on three factors in Iowa: Trump potentially winning by over 50%, where Ron DeSantis ends up and whether Nikki Haley gains any momentum heading into the New Hampshire primary.

All of those factors will “affect their [corporate] political and donor strategy,” Mackowiak added.

– Brian Schwartz

Both Republicans and Democrats will caucus in Iowa on Monday — but only the GOP side will feature a vote on presidential candidates.

Democrats who show up at their Iowa caucus precincts will discuss other party business. Iowa Democrats vote by mail, and results will not be released until Super Tuesday, March 5.

Republicans plan to post the results of their caucus Monday night. Delegates will be awarded proportionally to their share of the statewide vote.

Biden, the incumbent Democrat, faces little outward resistance from his own party as he seeks its nomination for president. His biggest Democratic challenger in the primary, Rep. Dean Philips of Minnesota, is mounting a long-shot campaign that his little chance of impacting the race.

— Kevin Breuninger

The cold weather, along with a class-scheduling decision could lead to fewer younger caucus goers turning out Monday night, a caucus organizer at the University of Iowa.

“I think with younger people, it may be an issue,” Kyle Clare, 21, told NBC News, referring to the frigid temperatures. “I think especially because a lot of us aren’t driving to our locations. A lot of us do have to walk to our caucus locations.”

Clare also noted that the university originally scheduled its first classes of the new semester to begin Tuesday, a day after the caucuses.

But even those classes were made virtual due to the cold weather. This could mean there will be fewer students physically present in Iowa City to caucus.

– Dan Mangan

The first ballots in the 2024 Republican presidential nominating contest will not be cast in a voting booth. The party caucus process is much more communal and more intense.

Iowa Republicans will gather at school cafeterias, community centers, churches and other sites Monday evening across 1,657 precincts in the state’s 99 counties.

Before recording their choices on ballots, those caucusgoers will hear speeches delivered by candidates’ supporters.

The ballots will be collected and counted, and a winner will be announced in the room. The results of the GOP caucuses will be uploaded to the state party’s website. Once they are verified, the results will be posted online.

The proceedings start promptly at 7 p.m. CT, and the state GOP urges participants to arrive early.

— Kevin Breuninger

For DeSantis and Ramaswamy, Iowa has been more than the cornerstone of their primary campaign strategies — it’s become their unofficial second home.

Ramaswamy has held 303 total events in the state since late May, while DeSantis has held 174 events there in the same period, according to NBC News’ tally of the GOP primary field.

Both candidates have touted their completion of the “full Grassley,” a reference to Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley’s annual tour of meetings through all of Iowa’s 99 counties. Ramaswamy did it twice, his campaign announced on Jan. 2.

It’s far from clear whether those efforts will translate into voter support.

Trump, who has held just 38 total events in Iowa since May 23, is heavily favored to win the state. Haley, who has 64 events in Iowa under her belt, is seen as a major threat to DeSantis’ hopes of a strong second-place finish in the Hawkeye State.

— Kevin Breuninger

Ron DeSantis is taking an all hands on deck approach to rallying Iowa caucusgoers to his side, including turning to members of his national finance committee for help on the ground in the Hawkeye State.

Roy Bailey, a co-chair of DeSantis’ national finance advisory board, told CNBC that he is among around 50 volunteers from the governor’s fundraising operation, are in Iowa on Monday trying to get out of the vote in support of the Florida governor.

The DeSantis fundraisers have been knocking on doors, making calls and speaking at various caucus precincts.

Michael McClellan and Nick Iarossi, are two other members of the finance committee volunteering to help DeSantis in Iowa, Bailey said.

Iarossi posted on X a picture of him attending a DeSantis rally in the Hawkeye State.

– Brian Schwartz

Ron DeSantis, who had long vowed he would win Iowa’s caucuses, has pulled back on those hopes as he set his sights on remaining in the race for what could end up being a last stand in South Carolina.

“We’re going on with this,” DeSantis told NBC News in an interview. “We’ve been built for the long haul.”

The Florida governor entered caucus day well behind Trump in polls in Iowa, and in what looks like a battle for second place with Haley, the former South Carolina governor.

DeSantis plans to head straight to South Carolina right after the caucuses for a campaign event in Greenville, despite the fact that the next Republican contest, on Jan. 23, is the New Hampshire primary.

After that comes the Nevada caucus on Feb. 8. South Carolina’s primary is scheduled for Feb. 24.

– Dan Mangan

A Sioux County caucusgoer backing Nikki Haley said there’s “not a chance” she will win the county — and predicted Trump will win Iowa’s caucuses “by a mile.”

Still, Douglas VanAarsten is supporting Haley “because I think we need a generational change,” he told NBC News.

“And I am totally opposed to Donald Trump being the next president,” VanAarsten said.

He hopes that by the end of the night, Haley “will have outperformed expectations, and that she has a chance then in New Hampshire, and even a better chance in South Carolina.”

“That might get the ball rolling enough so that there’s a chance,” VanAarsten said.

– Dan Mangan

Iowans will be battling extreme cold and dangerous wind chills as they trudge toward their caucus sites Monday evening for what could be the coldest caucus day on record.

Minimum wind chill forecasts as low as -35 degrees Fahrenheit are expected around 6 p.m. onward in some corners of the state, according to the National Weather Service in Des Moines.

The agency, a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, warned of “life-threatening cold” in a notice issued early Monday morning.

Frostbite in such temperatures is possible in as little as 10 minutes, according to the agency.

The hostile weather could depress turnout, though it is unclear whether that will help or hinder any of the presidential contenders.

— Kevin Breuninger

It’s been 24 years since the winner of competitive Iowa Republican caucuses also ended up being the GOP’s nominee that cycle.

Former President George W. Bush pulled off that feat in 2000. Since then, three men who won competitive caucuses did so only to see someone else nab the party’s nomination.

In 2008, as Bush was in his last year in the White House, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won the caucuses. The late Sen. John McCain of Arizona went on to win the nomination.

Four years later, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum won in Iowa, only to fade in later primaries. Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah was the Republican nominee that cycle.

In 2016, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas won the caucuses. But Trump ended up being the nominee that year.

– Dan Mangan

Nikki Haley has visited fewer Iowa counties and held fewer events than some of her GOP competitors, though she and her super PACs have tried to make up for it with a surge of ad spending.

Haley had visited 30 Iowa counties as of Sunday, trailing DeSantis who has visited all 99 and Ramaswamy who has visited all 99 two times over. Meanwhile, Trump has only visited 15 counties, holding many events via surrogates.

Since May 2023, Haley has held 125 events across the country, 64 of which were in Iowa. Ramaswamy has held 303 Iowa events out of his total 410. DeSantis, who also secured major Iowa endorsements, has held 174 Iowa events out of 264 total.

Though DeSantis and Ramaswamy appear to dwarf Haley’s ground game, she has outpaced the entire GOP field in terms of ad spending.

Haley has spent $36.2 million on Iowa campaign ads, according to AdImpact, more than any of the other Republican candidates. Just in the past two weeks, $7.8 million went to pro-Haley ads versus $6.1 million for DeSantis and $3.5 million for Trump.

Haley is reaping the benefits of her spending advantage, as a final Iowa poll from NBC News, the Des Moines Register and Mediacom showed her taking over DeSantis’ second place spot with 20% support. That momentum still has not been enough to close the gap with Trump who held 48% in the same poll.

— Rebecca Picciotto

For DeSantis and Ramaswamy, Iowa has been more than the cornerstone of their primary campaign strategies — it’s become their unofficial second home.

Ramaswamy has held 303 total events in the state since late May, while DeSantis has held 174 events there in the same period, according to NBC News’ tally of the GOP primary field.

Both candidates have touted their completion of the “full Grassley,” a reference to Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley’s annual tour of meetings through all of Iowa’s 99 counties. Ramaswamy did it twice, his campaign announced on Jan. 2.

It’s far from clear whether those efforts will translate into voter support.

Trump, who has held just 38 total events in Iowa since May 23, is heavily favored to win the state. Haley, who has 64 events in Iowa under her belt, is seen as a major threat to DeSantis’ hopes of a strong second-place finish in the Hawkeye State.

— Kevin Breuninger

Donald Trump warned Iowa caucusgoers to “be on the lookout for dirty tricks,” as he urged supporters to turn out for him, amid concerns that frigid weather in Iowa would dampen turnout.

“The Iowa Caucus is 100% on for Monday night, January 15th,” Trump wrote in his TruthSocial post. “It will not be canceled or postponed under any circumstances. Don’t listen to any dishonest RINOS or Globalists that say otherwise!”

At a campaign event Sunday in Indianola, Iowa, Trump suggested that there was nothing more important than voting for him.

“It has nothing to do with anything but taking our nation back, and that’s the biggest thing there is,” he said. “Even if you vote and then pass away, it’s worth it.”

– Dan Mangan