- WTI crude oil has started to evolve into a short-term uptrend phase reinforced by the recent liquidity infusion by China’s central bank, PBoC upcoming 50 bps cut on the RRR.
- The current 5-day rally of WTI crude oil has reached a key medium-term resistance zone of US$79.00/79.40 with a short-term overbought condition.
- At the risk of a minor mean reversion decline with intermediate supports at US$75.30 and US$74.80.
Benchmark oil prices have bottomed and traded higher since the start of this week as the West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures) had rallied by +4.9% week-to-date at this time of the writing, its best weekly gain since the 9 October 2023.
On top of the rising geopolitical risk premium that is supporting firmer oil prices from the ongoing tensions in the Middle East region and Red Sea shipping route, the additional liquidity infusion from China’s central bank (PBoC) with an upcoming 50 bps cut on commercial banks’ reserve requirement ratio has also triggered an indirect “demand-pull” catalyst on oil prices.
CTA funds may have contributed to the current bullish momentum frenzy
All in all, these factors have created short-term reflexive positive feedback into the oil market reinforced by possible speculative CTA funds that run on momentum-driven models that piled into oil futures with a bullish bias.
The price actions of the benchmark Brent and WTI crude oil have pierced above their respective 50-day moving averages on Monday, 22 January and have capped their prices previously since late October 2023; positive momentum begets positive momentum.
At the risk of a minor mean reversion decline below US$78.40
Fig 1: West Texas Oil medium-term trend as of 26 Jan 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)
Fig 2: West Texas Oil minor short-term trend as of 26 Jan 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)
In the lens of technical analysis, the recent push-up of West Texas Oil since the start of this week has led its hourly RSI momentum indicator to hover close to an extremely overbought level of around 74 in place since 12 January 2024.
This current overbought condition has also taken form as its price action is now coming close to a key medium-term resistance zone of US$78.00/78.40 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 17 January 2024 low & close to the key 200-day moving average).
Therefore, the odds have increased for a potential minor mean reversion decline to retrace a portion of the ongoing short-term uptrend phase with the next intermediate supports coming in at US$75.75/75.30 and US$74.80.
On the flip side, clearance above the US$78.40 pivotal resistance invalidates the mean reversion decline scenario for a continuation of the bullish trend towards the next intermediate resistance at US$79.75 in the first step.
