In the latest ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q1 2024, inflation expectations have been revised downwards across all horizons. For the immediate years, headline HICP inflation is projected to decrease from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025 and 2026. These revised figures represent a downward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points for 2024 and a slight 0.1 percentage point decrease for 2025.
Similarly, core HICP inflation, which excludes volatile components like energy and food, has also been revised downward for 2024 to 2.6%, with a further reduction to 2.1% expected in 2025. By 2026, core inflation is projected to align with ECB’s target, reaching 2.0%. The revisions for 2024 and 2025, each marked by a 0.3 and 0.1 percentage point decrease respectively, reflect an anticipated easing in the underlying inflationary trends.
On the growth front, expectations for real GDP have been adjusted downward for both 2024 and 2025. The forecasters now anticipate GDP growth of 0.6% in 2024, followed by a modest recovery to 1.3% in 2025 and slightly higher growth of 1.4% in 2026. These projections, revised down by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points for 2024 and 2025 respectively, indicate a cautious outlook on economic expansion in the near term.
Full ECB SPF results here.
