The Indian rupee closed lower on Monday weighed down by dollar demand from local oil companies and a jump in U.S. Treasury yields.
The rupee ended at 83.0550 against the U.S. dollar, lower by 0.17% compared to its close of 82.9175 in the previous session.
The dollar index rose to 104.26 in Asia hours, its highest level in almost two months. Asian currencies fell as well, with the Thai baht, Korean won and Malaysian ringgit all down 0.7%.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was last quoted higher at 4.09% after having risen 17 basis points (bps) on Friday on stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data.
“Continuous bids,” from local oil companies pressured the rupee on Monday, a foreign exchange trader at a private bank said.
Meanwhile, rupee forward premiums fell, with the 1-year implied yield falling 6 bps to 1.76% – its lowest level in a month – pressured by the paring of U.S. rate cut expectations.
The rupee is expected to be range-bound in the near term with weakness capped near the 83.30 mark, said Anindya Banerjee, head of foreign exchange research at Kotak Securities.
In addition to the non-farm payrolls data, comments from Fed Chair Powell also prompted investors to scale back bets on aggressive rate cuts in the U.S.
Powell, in an interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes that aired in Asia hours on Monday, stated that it is likely too soon for Fed policymakers to have confidence in inflation’s future trajectory to cut rates in March.
Investors are currently pricing in about 120 bps of Fed cuts in 2024, down from slightly less than 150 bps last week.
