NEW DELHI: Lok Sabha elections will be held in seven phases beginning April 19, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said on Saturday. The counting of votes is set to take place on June 4 as Prime Minister Narendra Modi makes a bid for a third consecutive term in office.
According to the poll body, over 97 crore voters – 49.7 crore males and 47.1 crore females – are eligible to cast their vote in the polling process spread over 44 days and across 10.5 lakh polling booths.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, polling was held in seven phases. There were a total of 91.2 crore eligible voters with about 43.8 crore female voters and nearly 47.3 crore male voters.
Soon after the Election Commission announced the Lok Sabha election schedule, PM Modi took to X to highlight the ‘glorious turnaround’ India has seen in the 10 years of his government and said the ruling alliance will go to people based on its track record of good governance.
Meanwhile, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said that the Lok Sabha polls were “perhaps the last chance to save democracy and our Constitution from dictatorship”.
Here are the top factors that hold key to the Lok Sabha election:
RAM TEMPLE
Mandir politics had lost its mojo till Modi brought it front and centre, via a grand ceremony in Jan. It’s put wind in BJP’s Hindutva sails, which are also powered by other ‘causes’ of similar ilk. So, mandir plus CAA plus resumption of puja inside Gyanvapi plus revocation of J&K special status plus general noise about ‘cultural revival’…all these and more are allowing BJP to make a solid pitch to faithfuls and to some of those on the fence. The Hindu outreach, BJP hopes, will overwhelm opposition’s caste census plays. Mandir also adds to Modi’s personal credibility.
ALLIANCES
Again, Modi has learnt from others’ mistakes. Vajpayee turned away DMK and Paswan in 2004, and paid the price. Modi, in 2024, despite being the favourite and despite INDIA alliance’s all-too-visible problems, has gone out of the way to bring back estranged NDA partners – from Nitish, to Naidu, to breaking up Sena and allying with one part of it. He’s also embraced previous enemies like JD(S). Talks with BJD still seem to be on. INDIA, which needed an alliance far more urgently, looks ramshackle, despite seat sharing in UP, Delhi, TN, Bihar, Maharashtra.
GDP GROWTH
Economists always fondly hope GDP numbers will inform voting decisions. But it’s lived experience, not macro stats, that determine how voters judge govt’s handling of economy. So, economists’ furious debates about Modi govt’s GDP numbers matter far less than A) whether govt can turn these numbers into another popular message, adding to Modi’s obvious and already-existing appeal, and B) how local experiences, partly affected by welfare transfers, are making voters feel. But middle classes, who have benefited more than the majority and are invested in markets, will likely find the message more convincing.
INFLATION
Modi has been more on the ball when it comes to inflation than most of his predecessors. He kept retail fuel prices frozen for months, then reduced prices three days back, cut LPG prices repeatedly, banned food exports more than once, doled out free food grains to 80 cr Indians – not caring two hoots about economists’ critiques. Food inflation of some variety persists as the campaign hots up but, minus some shocks, it looks unlikely to be a big national factor that will play for opposition. One smart thing Modi did was to keep pandemic deficit financing moderate, avoiding demand-push inflation.
CAA
Rules are notified, usual politics has begun, but how will it impact elections outside border areas of Bengal and in parts of Assam? That it will play in Bengal is clear from Mamata’s outreach to Matuas, a Dalit community set to benefit from CAA. In Assam, Bengali speakers will be happy, Assamese speakers will be miffed. Elsewhere, CAA impact will depend on how much BJP can use it to shore up Hindu ‘sentiment’ and opposition can use it to talk up polarisation. Opposition’s job is tougher.
RISING GLOBAL HEFT
It’s not just GOI talking up how its policies have added more heft to India’s standing globally. Plenty of foreign pundits say similar things, albeit with a bigger helping of questions. Modi’s energetic and clever diplomacy – buying Russian crude by ignoring Western opposition, is a good example – and concrete economic numbers make ‘Rising’ India a BJP pitch that opposition will find hard to question. But what’s perhaps missing so far is the wave of popular motion that turns voter perception on such things to votes. Modi, of course, will work to address this.
UNEMPLOYMENT
Potentially, opposition’s most potent economic weapon. There is a jobs problem. Even GOI data shows many ‘employed’ Indians are either selfemployed or in unpaid, household employment. Private data paints a grimmer picture. The mad rush for a few govt jobs, the rush to find low/ medium skill jobs abroad, the increasing capital intensity of manufacturing, which means fewer jobs per unit of investment, the skills shortage that makes many Indians unsuitable for a variety of jobs – they are all issues. But jobs by themselves have never been a big determining factor in Indian elections.
SOCIAL WELFARE
Everyone’s riding this. Question: Which party will get voter approbation where? Modi’s mastered that. He’s now ‘guaranteed’ welfare. And BJP’s caste calculus impresses even its critics. On welfare, he’s so far outmanoeuvred Congress and regional parties in most places. Not that the latter are not rolling out promises. Expect both sides to pick holes in each other’s benefits plans. With so much on offer, welfare may become the necessary but not the sufficient condition for winning. That’s where caste comes in. BJP has made slicing and dicing a fine art. Opposition, especially in heartland, has some catching up to do.
STABILITY
The salience of this factor comes and goes. Indira Gandhi rode on it after Janata Party imploded, so did Rajiv Gandhi after she was assassinated. Then unstable and/or chaotic coalitions ran India, ending with Manmohan Singh’s “coalition compulsions” statement. Modi rode on stability in 2014 and 2019. In 2024, he will tell voters that a strong India needs a stable govt, that external challenges are just too many for a ‘ragtag’ govt to handle. Opposition will say ‘strong’ means ‘authoritarian’ and ‘disempowerment’ of some sections, regions.
ED-CBI
Last but not the least – the agencies. Never have investigative agencies figured so much in political discourse. BJP says most opposition leaders are corrupt and therefore rightly in CBI/ED net. Opposition says this is BJP’s vendetta politics. It also says netas who switch allegiance to BJP get whitewashed. BJP says look at all the cash and valuables found in raids on opposition netas. How this has played out in assembly elections also depends on who you talk to. So, influence on LS polls is hard to speculate on. But expect rhetorical fireworks from both sides, with perhaps, advantage Modi.
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