USD/JPY’s rally resumed last week and edged higher to 151.82, but turned sideway since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 150.11) holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. However, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall back to 146.47 support instead.
In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.
In the long term picture, as long as 127.20 support holds(2023 low), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to continue through 151.93 (2022 high).
