The Japanese yen has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.17, down 0.26%.
Yen falls to 34-year low, will Tokyo intervene?
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week for the first time since 2007. The move marked a sea-change in monetary policy. However, the tightening has not translated into gains for the Japanese yen, which remains under pressure. Earlier today, the yen fell as low as 151.97, its lowest level since 1990.
Will the yen’s slide trigger a currency intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance? The MOF intervened last October when the yen dropped to 151.94, which means we are clearly within “intervention territory”. The MOF’s response to the current decline, however, has been limited to verbal intervention.
On Monday, as the top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, sent a warning to speculators that he was concerned by the yen’s slide, saying it did not reflect fundamentals. Earlier today, Japan’s finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, warned that excessive movement by the yen would be answered with “decisive steps”.
Japanese officials have limited their response to the yen’s woes with jawboning but the risk of intervention is very real and will increase if the yen continues to lose ground. Still, it should be noted that last year’s interventions didn’t really get the job done, as yen gains were short-lived.
The lack of certainty as to whether Tokyo will intervene to prop up the yen could result in volatility for USD/JPY and investors will be listening carefully to every comment coming out of the BoJ or the MOF.
USD/JPY Technical
- USD/JPY remains range-bound on the weekly chart:
- 152.58 and 153.70 are the next resistance lines
- There is support at 150.74 and 149.62
