Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (16,375 contracts) with Lean Hogs (9,080 contracts), Wheat (7,860 contracts), Coffee (6,081 contracts) and Cocoa (1,237 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-16,089 contracts), Sugar (-11,767 contracts), Live Cattle (-11,085 contracts), Corn (-8,855 contracts), Soybean Oil (-6,775 contracts) and Soybeans (-437 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

---

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

---

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (100 percent) and Lean Hogs (73 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cotton (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (9 percent), Soybeans (9 percent) and Soybean Meal (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (9.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.6 percent)
Sugar (28.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (33.1 percent)
Coffee (100.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (93.9 percent)
Soybeans (8.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (24.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (18.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (11.6 percent)
Live Cattle (31.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (43.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (72.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (65.1 percent)
Cotton (63.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (75.5 percent)
Cocoa (45.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.3 percent)
Wheat (31.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (25.7 percent)

---

Coffee & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (22 percent) and Lean Hogs (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (18 percent), Soybean Oil (18 percent) and Soybeans (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-18 percent), Wheat (-11 percent) and Cocoa (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.6 percent)
Sugar (0.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.3 percent)
Coffee (21.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.6 percent)
Soybeans (7.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (18.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-18.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-2.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (18.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (21.9 percent)
Cotton (-22.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.8 percent)
Cocoa (-6.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-14.7 percent)
Wheat (-10.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.8 percent)

---

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -190,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -181,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	43.5	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	31.0	10.8
– Net Position:	-190,191	195,882	-5,691
– Gross Longs:	278,917	677,996	162,698
– Gross Shorts:	469,108	482,114	168,389
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.5	88.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-7.0	16.4

 

---

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 105,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	52.7	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	66.2	8.1
– Net Position:	105,694	-112,202	6,508
– Gross Longs:	197,840	439,653	73,784
– Gross Shorts:	92,146	551,855	67,276
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	75.0	11.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-0.4	-1.8

 

---

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,482 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.9	34.3	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	65.5	2.8
– Net Position:	73,563	-76,957	3,394
– Gross Longs:	95,936	84,448	10,331
– Gross Shorts:	22,373	161,405	6,937
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.8	-24.2	36.1

 

---

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -158,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -158,040 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	58.3	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	38.4	7.7
– Net Position:	-158,477	165,652	-7,175
– Gross Longs:	90,965	484,852	56,884
– Gross Shorts:	249,442	319,200	64,059
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	90.9	87.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-8.2	11.1

 

---

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	47.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	46.4	4.8
– Net Position:	-10,632	8,894	1,738
– Gross Longs:	112,246	277,288	29,366
– Gross Shorts:	122,878	268,394	27,628
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.5	77.1	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.2	-16.1	0.4

 

---

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,062 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	47.2	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	46.6	6.6
– Net Position:	-22,062	2,946	19,116
– Gross Longs:	90,980	223,332	50,302
– Gross Shorts:	113,042	220,386	31,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	78.9	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-21.1	38.5

 

---

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 48,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	36.6	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	51.7	12.3
– Net Position:	48,971	-42,479	-6,492
– Gross Longs:	100,435	103,152	28,228
– Gross Shorts:	51,464	145,631	34,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	70.8	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.4	22.0	-5.1

 

---

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,080 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	33.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	46.9	10.2
– Net Position:	52,215	-43,955	-8,260
– Gross Longs:	128,394	104,697	24,100
– Gross Shorts:	76,179	148,652	32,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.6	29.0	46.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-17.2	-17.8

 

---

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 72,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.4	37.4	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	69.8	3.7
– Net Position:	72,676	-79,153	6,477
– Gross Longs:	106,200	91,585	15,457
– Gross Shorts:	33,524	170,738	8,980
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.4	36.7	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.3	22.9	-24.9

 

---

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	34.2	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	59.0	4.9
– Net Position:	34,908	-41,018	6,110
– Gross Longs:	58,112	56,707	14,165
– Gross Shorts:	23,204	97,725	8,055
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	50.9	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	5.9	3.6

 

---

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -52,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	34.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	21.1	8.2
– Net Position:	-52,397	53,124	-727
– Gross Longs:	119,333	137,049	31,819
– Gross Shorts:	171,730	83,925	32,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	66.2	62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	9.2	13.2

 

---

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.