- Gold trends lower in the short-term picture, near oversold territory
- Stronger buying needed above 2,355 for a bullish outlook
- FOMC policy announcement due today at 18:00 GMT
Gold bears took control on Tuesday, pressing the price below the resistance-turned-support trendline, which halted last week’s decline, and towards the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) in the four-hour chart at 2,280.
In the technical indicators, the RSI and the stochastic oscillator have stabilized their downfall near their previous lows within the oversold region and are looking for an upside reversal. That indicates an excessive bearish action, which might result in an upward correction or some stability. That said, the falling shorter-term EMAs suggest that the negative trend may continue to dominate.
Should the bears breach the floor at 2,280, support could initially develop within the 2,250-2,260 area, which includes the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the February-April uptrend, the lower boundary of the ongoing short-term bearish channel and the protective trendline from March 5. A step below that base could intensify selling pressures, sinking the precious metal to the 50% Fibonacci of 2,200. The 2,185 constraining zone from March could be the next pivot point.
Alternatively, there could be congestion between the 20- and 50-period EMAs at 2,311 and 2,325 respectively if the bounce off the 200-period EMA occurs. Running above the downward-sloping channel at 2,355 should be a bigger achievement and the key for a direct flight back to 2,400. Even higher, an extension above the 2,430 record high could face a barrier near 2,460.
To sum it up, there is a possibility that gold will seek to recover its positive momentum in the coming sessions because it is currently trading near a significant support zone. Still, for the outlook to brighten again, the price will have to jump back above 2,355.
