USD/CAD’s correction from 1.3845 extended to 1.3608 last week, but recovered after drawing support from 55 D EMA (now at 1.3616). Initial bias is neutral this week first. Strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.3782 resistance, will retain near term bullishness. Further break of 1.3845 will resume larger rise from 1.3176 towards 1.3976 key resistance next. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already, and target 1.3477 support next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.
