Speculator bets led by Platinum & Copper :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (6,863 contracts) with Copper (4,584 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-4,643 contracts), Silver (-842 contracts), Steel (-720 contracts) and with Palladium (-18 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (100 percent) and Silver (92 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (66.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (68.4 percent)
Silver (92.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (93.3 percent)
Copper (100.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (95.3 percent)
Platinum (54.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (36.2 percent)
Palladium (15.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.2 percent)
Steel (83.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.2 percent)

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Copper & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (40 percent) and Platinum (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-6 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (0.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.2 percent)
Silver (3.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.9 percent)
Copper (40.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (26.6 percent)
Platinum (17.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.4 percent)
Palladium (-7.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.5 percent)
Steel (-6.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.5 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 199,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 204,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.4	23.6	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	66.5	5.1
– Net Position:	199,567	-227,266	27,699
– Gross Longs:	272,144	124,899	54,701
– Gross Shorts:	72,577	352,165	27,002
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	32.5	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-3.6	27.8

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 53,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	24.2	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	70.2	7.2
– Net Position:	53,652	-74,415	20,763
– Gross Longs:	81,650	39,225	32,441
– Gross Shorts:	27,998	113,640	11,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.1	3.6	82.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-11.3	36.5

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,064 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	21.4	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	44.7	5.1
– Net Position:	62,648	-70,012	7,364
– Gross Longs:	160,147	64,280	22,549
– Gross Shorts:	97,499	134,292	15,185
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.2	-37.6	-2.5

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.1	24.5	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	47.2	4.9
– Net Position:	13,660	-18,348	4,688
– Gross Longs:	45,232	19,732	8,620
– Gross Shorts:	31,572	38,080	3,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.5	44.7	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-15.1	-7.9

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,088 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	51.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.7	10.2	6.8
– Net Position:	-11,088	10,600	488
– Gross Longs:	5,823	13,220	2,230
– Gross Shorts:	16,911	2,620	1,742
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.1	85.1	71.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	3.6	36.1

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,663 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	80.4	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	67.4	1.2
– Net Position:	-3,383	3,335	48
– Gross Longs:	3,606	20,678	362
– Gross Shorts:	6,989	17,343	314
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.4	17.3	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	5.8	8.9

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.