Indian economy is expected to surprise in the fourth quarter of FY24 with 7.4% growth, pushing full year estimate to 8%, State Bank of India research said Tuesday.
The Indian economy averaged 8.2% growth in the first three quarters of the year. The full year number at 7.6%, pegs Q4 growth at 5.7%
“The in-house developed SBI Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with 30 high frequency indicators points to the quarterly GDP growth for the Q4 FY24 to have a reading of 7.4%,” it said.
SBI noted that the growth in rural economy was picking up faster.
“The rural economy, on the other hand, is picking up with % of indicators showing acceleration increasing to 75 in Mar’24 compared to 56 (60) in Feb’24 (Jan’24). Diesel consumption and two-wheeler sales are showing uptick in rural economic momentum,” it highlighted.
The research unit of public sector bank noted that growth is likely to be higher next year as well, positing the economy to log 7.5-8% growth.
An ET poll pegged Q4 growth at 6.8%, with full year number at 7.8%. Economists in the poll of 16 economists had pegged FY25 median at 6.8%.
“As a harbinger of good times, ‘above normal’ monsoon augurs well for rural economy by boosting domestic supplies of pulses, oilseeds and cereals,” it noted.
RBI expects the economy to grow 7.3% in the first quarter of this fiscal and settle at 7% for the year.
The government will release fourth quarter numbers on May 31, along with provisional data for FY24.
“Global growth remains resilient, with easing inflationary pressures and tight employment conditions in spite of geopolitical and extreme weather event risks,” SBI researchers said.
