Shaky ahead of PCE inflation data :: InvestMacro

• Bitcoin ↑ 14 month-to-date
  

• Could be rocked by US inflation data
  

• Over past year PCE triggered moves of ↑ 1% & ↓ 2.3%
  

• Technical levels –  $70,000 & $67,000
  

• Keep eye on Ethereum, Solana & Litecoin among others

The past few days have been volatile for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin initially rallied above $70,000 last week due to market optimism around the prospect of spot Ethereum ETFs. However, prices crashed below $67,000 just hours before the SEC’s actual approval. Although bulls returned to the scene, upside gains were capped by fresh developments concerning the failed Mt. Gox exchange.

Still, Bitcoin could be in store for another wild ride this week thanks to the incoming US PCE inflation data.

All eyes will be on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the core personal consumption expenditure index which could impact bets around when the Fed will cut interest rates.

As of writing, traders are currently pricing in a 74% probability of a 25 basis point Fed cut in November with a move fully priced in by December.

Note: In general, cryptocurrencies are indirectly affected by interest rates because of their high risk.

So essentially, high interest rates may sap appetite for riskier investments like crypto, and vice versa.

Fun fact: Over the past year, the US PCE report has sparked upside moves of as much as 1% or declines of 2.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Just like Bitcoin, here is how these other cryptos have reacted post-release…

Ethereum: ↑ 1% or ↓ 2%

Solana: ↑ 2.4 % or ↓ 2.8%

Ripple: ↑ 1.3 % or ↓ 2%

Dogecoin: ↑ 1.5 % or ↓ 2.7%

Litecoin: ↑ 3.6 % or ↓ 3.5%

Note: Past price movements do not guarantee future results but can be used to highlight how cryptos have reacted to the US PCE deflators.

Looking at the bigger picture, Bitcoin is up roughly 14% this month and still boasting year-to-date gains over 60%.

Prices remain trapped within a range on the weekly charts with support at $60,000 and resistance at $72,000.

Despite the choppiness on the daily charts, prices are still respecting a bullish channel with technical indicators signalling further upside. The candlesticks are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD points above zero but bears seem to be eyeing $67,000.

• A solid breakout above $70,000 may open a path toward $72,000.

• Should prices slip below $67,000 this could open a path toward $65,000.