Disappointed with early counting trends that showed Dalal Street’s favourite Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA alliance may win elections but with a lower-than-expected seat count, Sensex today fell over 6,100 points to record the biggest intraday fall in the last two years.
Sensex and Nifty not only erased all of the gains recorded in Monday’s session as exit poll euphoria that predicted 350+ seats for NDA looked far-fetched. The total market capitalisation of all BSE-listed stocks fell by nearly Rs 21.5 lakh crore in late morning.
But this may just be the beginning of a short-term downtrend in the market if NDA’s seat tally turns out to be below the 300-level, analysts say.
“Following the exit poll results, the market had factored in around 350 seats for NDA and now if it falls below 300 then it would be a big disappointment for bulls,” said Kranthi Bathini of WealthMills Securities.
Some analysts are also of the opinion that the market could be over-reacting to early trends.
“Due to physical counting under VVPAT, the process is slower this time around. I feel the market will once again get steady and high-beta stocks will be bought,” said Dalal Street veteran investor Deven Choksey.
If the market falls further, high-flying PSU stocks as well as those being labelled as “Modi stocks” are likely to be among the worst hit in the avalanche.
Nifty PSU Bank index was the worst hit as it crashed over 11% with all stocks in the index seeing double-digit losses. Other PSU stocks like PFC, REC and BEL fell up to 20%.
Dalal Street’s fear gauge India VIX jumped 40% to 29.79 to record its biggest single-day gain in 9 years. The flight to safety was visible as the 10-year bond yield spiked 10 bps to 7.04%.
With a 2% fall in the pre-election week, investors had baked in around 300-320 seats for NDA but exit polls set the benchmark higher only to be disappointed on Tuesday morning.
However, elections may not have an impact in the long run as investors train their focus back to fundamentals, growth outlook and company earnings.
In the worst case scenario, if the downtrend sustains in case NDA seat tally falls below the 300-mark, it could be the first bear market for new investors who got attracted to stocks post the Covid rally.
“New investors, especially those who entered the market after COVID-19, might not have experienced market corrections before. Since market movements are cyclical, errors during corrections can lead to substantial losses for inexperienced investors. Therefore, thorough research and effective risk management are crucial before making any investment decisions. Rushed or speculative investments could result in serious financial repercussions,” said Vinnaayak Mehta, Founder of The Infinity Group.
Analysts are of the opinion that retail investors should not rush in to buy the dip in today’s market and wait for the froth to settle down.
“But I do not think it is the time to short. Go long on the high beta trade – Adanis, PSUs. Just be cautious there. Try and build your portfolio on stocks which are giving you momentum like HDFC twins, SBI Life, UltraTech, ABFRL and Vodafone Idea,” said market veteran Sanjiv Bhasin.
