EUR/AUD’s down trend continued last week but it recovered after hitting 1.6026. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Upside should be limited by 1.6211 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Below 1.6026 will turn bias back to the downside for 100% projection of 1.6679 to 1.6211 from 1.6418 at 1.5950.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) only. Strong support is still expected between 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5976) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
