AUD/USD has climbed to 0.6676 yet remains in a “sideways” pattern, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum in the market.
The Australian dollar’s appreciation is linked to a softening in the US dollar’s stance, influenced by remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell highlighted the need for further economic data to assess the disinflationary trends, suggesting a cautious approach to rate adjustments. This uncertainty around US monetary policy has led to a dip in the USD, boosting AUD.
Conversely, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a vigilant stance on inflation, with recent minutes suggesting a potential rate hike if inflationary pressures escalate. This possibility lends some support to the Australian dollar. Recent economic data from Australia, including a spike in May’s retail sales and continued private sector growth in June, further bolsters this perspective.
Market speculation hints at a potential RBA rate increase in August, with forthcoming data likely to provide clearer indicators of this likelihood.
Technical analysis of AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair navigates within a broad consolidation range, forming a diverging “Triangle” around 0.6662. Currently, there is potential for the price to ascend to 0.6702. Upon reaching this level, a retraction to 0.6662 is anticipated, with a potential downward break targeting 0.6555 before resuming upward movements towards 0.6737. The MACD indicator supports this growth scenario, with its signal line positioned above zero and upwards.
On the hourly chart, a tight consolidation has been observed around 0.6662. The expected trajectory involves an ascent to 0.6690, potentially extending to 0.6702. This growth forecast is underscored by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80, suggesting an impending downward adjustment to around 50.
Market outlook
As the global financial landscape navigates through mixed economic signals and central bank policies, the AUD/USD pair will likely continue to experience volatility. Investors and traders will closely monitor upcoming economic releases and central bank communications to gauge the potential shifts in monetary policy, especially from the RBA and the Fed, which could significantly influence the currency pair’s movements in the near term.
