GBP/USD’s strong break of 1.2859 resistance last week confirmed resumption of rally from 1.2298. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2859 from 1.2612 at 1.3173, which is slightly above 1.3141 key medium term resistance. On the downside, below 1.2898 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.3141 medium term top (2023 high) could have completed with three waves to 1.2298 already. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2612 support holds. Firm break of 1.3141 will target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 from 1.2298 at 1.4022.
In the long term picture, as long as 1.2298 support holds, rise from 1.0351 long term bottom is expected to continue. But still, firm break of 1.4248 structural resistance is needed to indicate bullish trend reversal. Otherwise, price actions from 1.0351 are tentatively seen as a consolidation pattern only.
