USD/CAD’s strong rally last week suggests that consolidative pattern from 1.3845 has completed with three waves to 1.3588, after being supported by 38.2% retracement of 1.3716 to 1.3845 at 1.3589 Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.3790 resistance first. Firm break there will likely resume whole rally from 1.3176 to 61.8% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3845 from 1.3588 at 1.4025. Nevertheless, break of 1.3656 minor support will dampen this bearish case.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.
