EUR/USD dipped to 1.0825 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further fall is in favor as long as 1.0896 minor resistance holds. Below 1.0825 will target 55 D EMA (now at 1.0815). Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.0601 has completed with three waves up to 1.0947, and target 1.0601/0665 support zone. Nevertheless, break of 1.0896 will bring retest of 1.0947 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern that’s still be in progress. Break of 1.1138 resistance will be the first signal that rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 (2023 high). However, break of 1.0665 support will extend the correction with another falling leg back towards 1.0447 support.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 (2022 low). Sustained break of 55 M EMA (now at 1.1013) will raise the chance of long term reversal. But even in this case, firm break of 1.2348 structural resistance is needed to confirm. Rejection by 55 M EMA will maintain bearishness for extend the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) through 0.9534 at a later stage.
