GBP/JPY’s fall from 208.09 accelerated to as low as 195.84 last week, but recovered after breaching 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 208.09 at 196.71 briefly. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 202.08 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 196.71 will argue that larger scale correction is under way to 185.49 fibonacci level.
In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 208.09 might be a medium term top and fall from there could already be correcting whole up trend from 148.93 (2022 low). Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 200.78) holds. Sustained break of 196.71 will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 148.93 to 208.09 at 185.49.
In the longer term picture, outlook will stay bullish as long as 188.63 resistance turned support holds, or until a clear reversal pattern forms. Rise from 122.75 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Next target is 138.2% projection of 116.83 to 195.86 from 122.75 at 231.96.
