AUD/USD rebounded strongly after initial dive to 0.6348 last week. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for further rise. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6614) will target 0.6798 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.6506 minor support will indicate rejection by the 55 D EMA, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6348 instead.
In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.6798 as another falling leg. Deeper fall could be seen to the lower side of the range between 0.6169/6361. But strong support should be seen there to contain downside. Meanwhile, break of 0.6798 will target upper side of the range at 0.7156.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.
