EUR/CHF’s retreat from 0.9579 extended lower last week but recovered slightly ahead of 0.9448 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rally is in favor. On the upside, sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9576) will pave the way back to 0.9972/0.9928 resistance zone. However, decisive break of 0.9448 will suggest rejection by 55 D EMA, and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9209 low.
In the bigger picture, medium term corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 0.9928 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
