Speculator bets led by Cotton & Soybeans :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (19,749 contracts) with Soybeans (9,593 contracts), Sugar (8,847 contracts), Coffee (6,681 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,390 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,171 contracts), Wheat (2,114 contracts) and Cocoa (1,528 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-18,535 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-4,028 contracts) and Live Cattle (-2,551 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Coffee & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (94 percent) and Wheat (60 percent) lead the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Live Cattle (12 percent), Cotton (12 percent) and Soybeans (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (25.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (27.8 percent)
Sugar (26.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.8 percent)
Coffee (94.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.7 percent)
Soybeans (14.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (12.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (38.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (45.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (43.4 percent)
Live Cattle (11.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (14.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (29.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.1 percent)
Cotton (11.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (44.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (42.8 percent)
Wheat (59.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (58.3 percent)

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Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (22 percent) and Wheat (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (17 percent), Sugar (16 percent) and Corn (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.0 percent)
Sugar (16.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.5 percent)
Coffee (10.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.4 percent)
Soybeans (5.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (22.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (17.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-29.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (16.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.4 percent)
Cotton (9.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-5.2 percent)
Cocoa (2.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.7 percent)
Wheat (18.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.4 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -66,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	43.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	36.5	12.2
– Net Position:	-66,295	104,089	-37,794
– Gross Longs:	337,834	623,438	135,315
– Gross Shorts:	404,129	519,349	173,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.4	76.3	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-9.2	-21.6

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 72,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	54.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	64.6	8.0
– Net Position:	72,250	-79,058	6,808
– Gross Longs:	174,439	409,670	67,622
– Gross Shorts:	102,189	488,728	60,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	73.7	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-16.9	16.1

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,447 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	36.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	72.6	2.5
– Net Position:	70,128	-73,522	3,394
– Gross Longs:	83,448	76,124	8,553
– Gross Shorts:	13,320	149,646	5,159
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.2	5.2	69.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-11.4	12.9

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -134,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	62.2	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	43.8	7.5
– Net Position:	-134,638	155,638	-21,000
– Gross Longs:	111,373	526,047	42,565
– Gross Shorts:	246,011	370,409	63,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	87.2	57.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-4.3	-18.0

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	50.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	48.8	4.9
– Net Position:	-8,897	6,668	2,229
– Gross Longs:	141,892	277,776	29,225
– Gross Shorts:	150,789	271,108	26,996
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.6	66.2	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-19.1	-6.4

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	47.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	59.1	5.4
– Net Position:	43,288	-61,679	18,391
– Gross Longs:	123,866	246,500	46,358
– Gross Shorts:	80,578	308,179	27,967
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.2	53.3	38.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-0.1	0.6

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	36.2	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	42.3	13.4
– Net Position:	30,498	-17,976	-12,522
– Gross Longs:	96,606	107,831	27,425
– Gross Shorts:	66,108	125,807	39,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	100.0	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	18.9	-4.2

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	38.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.9	35.8	9.4
– Net Position:	-3,310	6,745	-3,435
– Gross Longs:	93,358	98,065	20,404
– Gross Shorts:	96,668	91,320	23,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	69.7	67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-20.2	1.6

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	47.8	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	37.2	5.3
– Net Position:	-26,362	24,854	1,508
– Gross Longs:	59,144	112,312	13,978
– Gross Shorts:	85,506	87,458	12,470
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	86.8	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-10.8	24.5

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.1	35.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	62.6	3.0
– Net Position:	33,753	-39,580	5,827
– Gross Longs:	51,815	50,202	10,154
– Gross Shorts:	18,062	89,782	4,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.4	52.3	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-2.5	-1.3

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,114 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	35.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	29.7	10.1
– Net Position:	-14,189	20,379	-6,190
– Gross Longs:	124,164	124,609	29,368
– Gross Shorts:	138,353	104,230	35,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	40.5	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-20.2	2.0

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.