The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to start easing from December 2024, said a report by UBS.
Given the domestic inflation outlook is improving (likely to be 30bps lower than RBI’s forecast of 4.5% for FY25) and global monetary easing cycle has begun, “We now expect MPC to lower repo rates by 75 bps in this cycle (prior forecast: 50bps ),” said the report titled, “Five key questions for the Indian economy.”
The U.S. Federal Reserve last week reduced its key interest rate by 50 basis points.
US Federal Reserve has acted in the best interests of the world’s largest economy, the RBI will make its decision on interest rate cuts based on what suits the Indian economy, said Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth.
The MPC headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is scheduled to meet during October 7-9 and take a call on interest rate.
Retail inflation, which is being taken into consideration by the rate-setting panel MPC for its decision, rose marginally to 3.65 per cent in August, from 3.54 per cent in July.
While the overall inflation is below the RBI’s median target of 4 per cent, the rate of price rise in the food basket was 5.66 per cent in August.
The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its August bi-monthly review amid risks from higher food inflation.
This was the ninth consecutive MPC meeting which decided to maintain the status quo on the rate front. The Reserve Bank has kept the benchmark repo rate unchanged since February 2023.
In the last meeting, four of six MPC members voted in favour of the status quo while two external members pitched for a rate cut.
Earlier, Reserve Bank Governor Das also said the decision on interest rate moderation will be based on long-term inflation trajectory and not on the basis of monthly data.
