~Samriddhi Singh Mahar
The economy saw a slight ease in inflation with CPI being 5.48% along with India’s unemployment rate dropping to 8% in November 2024 from 8.7% in October. There was a year on year increase of 9.59 % in exports as well.
However, not all of the indicators were rosy, a drop in PMI manufacturing and services, outflow of Rs 21,612 Crore FPI investment and an increase in trade deficit to USD 37.84 billion shows that there are gaps in India’s growth story.
While the IMF projected India to surpass Japan and become the world’s fourth-largest economy in FY2025, ADB (Asian Development Bank) has slashed the GDP projection from 7% to 6.5%.
Keeping these mixed outlooks in mind, ETBFSI presents an overview of the macroeconomic performance for November.
GST:
In November 2024, GST collections grew by 8.5% year-on-year to reach Rs 1.82 lakh crore, though this marked a slight decline from Rs 1.87 lakh crore in October 2024.
Among all states, Maharashtra recorded the highest GST revenue at Rs 29,948 crore, representing a 17% increase compared to November 2023. Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Gujarat, and Delhi have seen significant growth in their GST revenue as well.
The overall GST collection in November 2024 has increased by 9.38% compared to November 2023. The total gross GST revenue for the year till November 2024 stands at Rs 14,56,711 crore, reflecting a 9.3% increase year-on-year.
(Source: Ministry of Finance)
UPI Transactions
UPI transactions reached 15,482.02 million in volume and Rs 21,55,187.40 crore in value in November, with the participation of 637 banks driving the ecosystem. In comparison, October saw 16,584.97 million transactions worth Rs 23,49,821.46 crore, facilitated by 632 banks.
(Source: NPCI data)
Unemployment:
India’s unemployment rate dropped to 8% in November 2024 from 8.7% in October but remained above historical levels. This marked the second consecutive month with unemployment exceeding 8%, a persistent concern this fiscal year. After a low of 7% in May 2024, the rate peaked at 9.2% in June before fluctuating in subsequent months.
(Source: CMIE)
Inflation
Year-on-year retail inflation (CPI) for the month of November is 5.48%, a slight decline from last month’s 6.21%. Corresponding retail inflation rates for rural and urban areas are 5.95% and 4.83%, respectively.
In November 2024, the provisional year-on-year inflation rate, as measured by the All-India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI), was 9.04%, with rural and urban inflation at 9.10% and 8.74%, respectively.
The decrease in inflation in November 2024 can be primarily attributed to a reduction in the inflation rate within the “food and beverages” category.
(Source: MoSPI)
Index for Industrial Production
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose to 149.9 in October 2024 from 146.7 in September 2024, indicating a growth rate improvement to 3.5% from a 3.1% growth in the previous month.
For the month of October 2024, the growth rates for the Mining, Manufacturing, and Electricity sectors were 0.9%, 4.1%, and 2.0%, respectively.
In October 2024, the IIP indices stood as follows: Primary Goods at 149.9, Capital Goods at 109.4, Intermediate Goods at 163.4, Infrastructure/Construction Goods at 183.0, Consumer Durables at 130.2, and Consumer Non-durables at 146.3.
The top contributors to IIP growth in October 2024 were Primary Goods, Intermediate Goods, and Consumer Durables.
(Source: Ministry of Statistics)
Purchasing Managers’ Index:
The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI compiled by S&P Global, dropped from 57.5 in October to 56.5 in November 2024. The Services PMI was at 58.4 in November 2024, slightly down from the October’s index of 58.5. The HSBC India Composite PMI, which combines both manufacturing and services data, posted a value of 58.6.
Despite strong demand, companies faced rising costs, particularly for freight, labor, and raw materials, leading to the steepest price increases in over 11 years. Robust demand and new business fueled solid growth in business activity, while service providers experienced sustained high international demand.
(Source: S&P Global)
FII & DI:
There was a significant outflow from FPIs of Rs 21,612 Crore in November 2024. DIIs were net buyers, investing Rs 44,483.86 Crore in Indian equities. While FPIs pulled back, the domestic market showed resilience, driven by institutional buying.
The Nifty 50 index closed at Rs 24,131.10 Crore and the BSE Sensex closed at Rs 79,802.79 Crore. Both the Nifty 50 and Sensex performed well, indicating that the market has stayed stable and positive.
(Source: BSE & NSE)
Trade Merchandise
In November 2024, India recorded total exports of USD 67.79 Billion , reflecting a growth of 9.59 % compared to November 2023 but a decrease from previous month’s total exports of USD 73.21 billion. Total imports were USD 87.63 billion, up by 7.77% from the previous year and reflect a slight increase from the previous month’s USD 83.33 billion.
Service exports were estimated at USD 35.67 billion, up from USD 28.11 billion in November 2023 and the previous month’s USD 34.02 billion. Imports of services marginally increased as well with USD 17.68 billion in November 2024 as compared to USD 13.68 billion in November 2023 and the previous month’s USD 17 billion.
In November 2024, India’s merchandise exports were valued at USD 32.11 billion, compared to USD 33.75 billion in November 2023, reflecting a decline in export performance. Conversely, merchandise imports rose significantly to USD 69.95 billion in November 2024, up from USD 55.06 billion in November 2023, indicating an increase in the import of goods.
In November 2024, India’s merchandise exports declined to USD 32.11 billion from USD 33.75 billion in November 2023, while imports surged to USD 69.95 billion from USD 55.06 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 37.84 billion in November 2024.This marks a significant increase in the trade deficit from USD 27.14 billion in October 2024.
(Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry)
