Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Copper & Palladium :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Copper & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decidedly lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-13,545 contracts), Copper (-5,019 contracts), Palladium (-1,282 contracts), Platinum (-1,085 contracts), Silver (-901 contracts) and with Steel (-778 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (83 percent) and Gold (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (39 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength scores were Platinum (49 percent) and Palladium (48 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (84.9 percent)
Silver (67.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (68.2 percent)
Copper (38.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (43.4 percent)
Platinum (48.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.0 percent)
Palladium (48.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.8 percent)
Steel (82.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.7 percent)

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Gold tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-27 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (2.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-1.2 percent)
Silver (-16.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-24.3 percent)
Copper (-16.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.9 percent)
Platinum (-36.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-49.0 percent)
Palladium (-26.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-26.2 percent)
Steel (-12.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-10.0 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 262,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 275,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.9	13.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	74.2	5.4
– Net Position:	262,041	-285,233	23,192
– Gross Longs:	302,978	61,012	48,388
– Gross Shorts:	40,937	346,245	25,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	19.6	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-0.8	-16.4

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.4	23.9	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	63.1	8.3
– Net Position:	40,264	-57,510	17,246
– Gross Longs:	68,183	35,135	29,396
– Gross Shorts:	27,919	92,645	12,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.0	30.8	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	18.5	-17.7

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	35.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	41.5	5.6
– Net Position:	5,940	-11,750	5,810
– Gross Longs:	81,540	74,275	17,360
– Gross Shorts:	75,600	86,025	11,550
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	60.3	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	19.4	-28.6

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	19.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	41.1	4.3
– Net Position:	13,744	-21,341	7,597
– Gross Longs:	56,233	18,959	11,841
– Gross Shorts:	42,489	40,300	4,244
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	45.1	81.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.2	32.4	13.5

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	48.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.9	10.8	8.3
– Net Position:	-7,311	6,358	953
– Gross Longs:	5,633	8,182	2,356
– Gross Shorts:	12,944	1,824	1,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	49.3	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.7	26.9	-5.9

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -778 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	67.7	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	56.2	0.7
– Net Position:	-3,558	3,550	8
– Gross Longs:	7,338	20,911	226
– Gross Shorts:	10,896	17,361	218
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	18.1	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	12.4	-13.1

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.