JPY, BRL, Wheat & 5-Year Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 29th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

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Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing once again this week as the JPY speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 15 this week. The overall net speculator position reached a new all-time record high at a total of 179,212 net contracts this week with a gain of 1,398 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

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Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in tied at the top of the extreme standings this week as the BRL speculator level is also at 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 22 this week. The speculator position registered 68,338 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 18,451 contracts in speculator bets.

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VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The VIX speculator level resides at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -2 this week. The overall speculator position was 4,240 net contracts this week with a rise of 9,985 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 35 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week with an increase by 2,025 contracts in the speculator bets.

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Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level sits at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 12 this week.

The speculator position was 30,863 net contracts this week with a decline by -6,817 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at the bottom or 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -28 this week. The overall speculator position was -116,808 net contracts this week with a decrease of -22,839 contracts in the speculator bets.

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5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18 this week. The speculator position was -2,292,544 net contracts this week with a drop by -101,110 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The USD Index speculator level resides at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16 this week. The overall speculator position was -449 net contracts this week with a rise of 525 contracts in the speculator bets.

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Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 17 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6 this week. The speculator position was -20,034 net contracts this week with a decline by -7,483 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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WTI Crude Oil

Finally, the WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5 this week. The speculator position was 177,209 net contracts this week with an advance by 6,254 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.