Bets led higher by Platinum & Silver :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (6,930 contracts) with Silver (5,880 contracts), Copper (2,257 contracts), Palladium (1,485 contracts) and also Steel (666 contracts) showing positive weeks.

The market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Gold with a small decline of -424 contracts on the week.

Metals Markets Price Changes:

In the metals market prices, platinum rose strongly with a gain of over 5%. Gold followed with an increase of more than 3.5%, and silver edged up by nearly 1%. Conversely, palladium and copper saw declines of 1% and 1.5%, respectively, while steel dropped significantly by over 6%.

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Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Silver & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent) and Platinum (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Gold (51 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is above the 3-Year midpoint of 50 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (51.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (51.6 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (92.6 percent)
Copper (57.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (55.7 percent)
Platinum (79.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (63.4 percent)
Palladium (60.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (49.7 percent)
Steel (71.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (67.7 percent)

 

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Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (40 percent) and Palladium (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (21 percent), Gold (9 percent) and Copper (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Steel (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (9.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.8 percent)
Silver (21.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (20.2 percent)
Copper (6.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-0.6 percent)
Platinum (40.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (34.0 percent)
Palladium (38.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (26.7 percent)
Steel (-7.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-12.9 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 187,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -424 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.0	16.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	69.8	4.5
– Net Position:	187,481	-222,718	35,237
– Gross Longs:	245,995	68,432	54,008
– Gross Shorts:	58,514	291,150	18,771
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	42.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-11.5	28.7

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,650 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	20.0	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	69.2	8.2
– Net Position:	66,650	-85,661	19,011
– Gross Longs:	85,192	34,871	33,366
– Gross Shorts:	18,542	120,532	14,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.0	-18.1	-1.5

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 26,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.8	29.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	44.4	6.1
– Net Position:	26,351	-30,284	3,933
– Gross Longs:	72,101	61,691	16,679
– Gross Shorts:	45,750	91,975	12,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	44.3	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.5	-8.8	19.6

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 26,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,930 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.9	16.2	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	48.2	6.4
– Net Position:	26,979	-31,881	4,902
– Gross Longs:	62,728	16,169	11,302
– Gross Shorts:	35,749	48,050	6,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	21.5	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.2	-38.2	0.5

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.9	39.5	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.9	16.0	7.3
– Net Position:	-5,808	4,570	1,238
– Gross Longs:	8,124	7,661	2,653
– Gross Shorts:	13,932	3,091	1,415
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.9	32.1	87.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.4	-41.5	14.5

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -878 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	69.6	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	67.4	0.4
– Net Position:	-878	707	171
– Gross Longs:	8,135	22,383	298
– Gross Shorts:	9,013	21,676	127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.0	29.5	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	6.4	27.2

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.