Speculator Bets led by Heating Oil & Brent Oil :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Heating Oil & Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Heating Oil (6,479 contracts) with Brent Oil (6,278 contracts), Gasoline (1,964 contracts) and Natural Gas (1,170 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-7,044 contracts) and the Bloomberg Index (-288 contracts) which saw lower bets on the week.

Natural Gas led Energy Price Performance

Energy market performance this week was led by Natural Gas, which saw a 2.94% gain on the week. Despite that, Natural Gas is down by -6.64% over the last 30 days and is lower by -22.14% over the last 90 days.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next highest mover with a 0.64% gain on the week. Heating Oil also saw a tiny gain this week with a 0.04% increase. Heating Oil has been up by 13.75% over the last 90 days.

On the downside, Gasoline fell by -0.58% this week. Gasoline has been higher by 3.44% over the last 30 days and up by 7.92% over the last 90 days. Brent Oil fell by -2.92% over the last five days. Brent Oil has been higher by almost 8% over the last 90 days.

And finally, WTI Crude Oil was down by -3.47% this week, but has been up by 7.19% over the last 90 days.

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Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Natural Gas

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (83 percent) and Natural Gas (60 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, WTI Crude (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (2.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (40.3 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (31.4 percent)
Natural Gas (60.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (59.1 percent)
Gasoline (41.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (38.5 percent)
Heating Oil (83.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (74.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (47.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (48.3 percent)

 

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Heating Oil & Gasoline top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Heating Oil (12 percent) and Gasoline (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

WTI Crude Oil (-21 percent), Natural Gas (-19 percent) and Brent Oil (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-20.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-21.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-16.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-38.6 percent)
Natural Gas (-19.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-23.0 percent)
Gasoline (9.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-6.9 percent)
Heating Oil (11.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (3.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-8.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-6.4 percent)

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Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,044 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	41.2	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	47.3	2.5
– Net Position:	102,428	-121,395	18,967
– Gross Longs:	293,055	819,102	67,712
– Gross Shorts:	190,627	940,497	48,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.6	23.2	-19.8

 

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Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,278 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,920 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	45.6	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	31.6	3.2
– Net Position:	-28,642	28,295	347
– Gross Longs:	38,506	92,395	6,853
– Gross Shorts:	67,148	64,100	6,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.3	62.5	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	18.6	-4.4

 

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Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -102,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,170 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	30.9	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	25.4	2.5
– Net Position:	-102,776	89,212	13,564
– Gross Longs:	284,272	504,792	55,175
– Gross Shorts:	387,048	415,580	41,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	43.1	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	23.5	-13.1

 

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Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,342 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	49.1	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	64.4	5.1
– Net Position:	41,306	-48,980	7,674
– Gross Longs:	83,524	157,003	24,129
– Gross Shorts:	42,218	205,983	16,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	56.3	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-10.7	13.9

 

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#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	40.9	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	55.5	7.6
– Net Position:	30,246	-53,510	23,264
– Gross Longs:	64,603	149,076	51,122
– Gross Shorts:	34,357	202,586	27,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	15.6	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-5.6	-8.3

 

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Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -13,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,969 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	81.7	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	75.1	0.1
– Net Position:	-13,257	12,966	291
– Gross Longs:	26,750	160,982	406
– Gross Shorts:	40,007	148,016	115
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.0	52.7	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	8.1	0.5

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.