Speculator Bets led by Lean Hogs & Soybean Meal :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (8,244 contracts) with Soybean Meal (5,505 contracts), Coffee (3,531 contracts) and Cocoa (249 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-53,805 contracts), Soybeans (-13,097 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,503 contracts), Wheat (-10,503 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,557 contracts), Cotton (-3,122 contracts) and with Corn (-1,789 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee led weekly price gains

The soft commodities price performance this week was overwhelmingly positive and led by Coffee, which rose by almost 6% on the week. Coffee is up by almost 37% in the last 30 days, and over the last 90 days, Coffee is higher by 6.54%.

Next, Cocoa was the second highest gainer over the last five days with a rise of 2.83%. Corn was also up over two percent with a 2.11% weekly rise. Soybeans increased by 1.71% over the last five days, Soybean meal was up by 1.44% and Sugar was rose by 1.19%. Lean Hogs came in next with a gain of 0.91%. Lean Hogs is now up by over 9% in the last 30 days and is higher by approximately 10% in the last 90 days.

Cotton rose by 0.87% this week while Wheat also saw a weekly rise of 0.48%.

Soybean Oil fell this week by -0.71%, while Live Cattle saw the largest decline on the week by -1.56%.

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Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (96 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (63 percent), Soybean Oil (61 percent) and Soybeans (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cotton (7 percent), Soybean Meal (14 percent) and Cocoa (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (28.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (29.1 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (12.8 percent)
Coffee (63.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (59.8 percent)
Soybeans (52.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (60.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (67.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.3 percent)
Live Cattle (83.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (86.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (96.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (90.2 percent)
Cotton (6.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.5 percent)
Cocoa (17.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (16.8 percent)
Wheat (29.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.6 percent)

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Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (13 percent) and Lean Hogs (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (11 percent), Coffee (8 percent) and Soybeans (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-18 percent), Cotton (-15 percent) and Wheat (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.1 percent)
Sugar (-18.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.2 percent)
Coffee (8.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.7 percent)
Soybeans (4.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-3.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-29.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-16.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (12.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.2 percent)
Live Cattle (0.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.2 percent)
Cotton (-14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.7 percent)
Cocoa (-3.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.7 percent)
Wheat (-10.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.3 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -54,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,455 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	45.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	40.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-54,244	85,990	-31,746
– Gross Longs:	344,492	677,221	128,809
– Gross Shorts:	398,736	591,231	160,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	70.2	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-11.8	-1.5

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -139,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -53,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,805 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	55.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	40.7	8.3
– Net Position:	-139,610	140,084	-474
– Gross Longs:	170,080	528,585	78,302
– Gross Shorts:	309,690	388,501	78,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	15.4	6.0

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 38,517 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	37.9	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	61.0	3.8
– Net Position:	38,517	-40,893	2,376
– Gross Longs:	60,922	67,067	9,133
– Gross Shorts:	22,405	107,960	6,757
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.2	37.9	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-10.1	33.5

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	57.6	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	57.0	7.3
– Net Position:	8,323	4,933	-13,256
– Gross Longs:	153,365	498,887	50,276
– Gross Shorts:	145,042	493,954	63,532
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.6	45.4	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-6.2	10.1

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,880 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	45.6	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	52.0	4.4
– Net Position:	33,880	-40,372	6,492
– Gross Longs:	130,047	287,877	34,368
– Gross Shorts:	96,167	328,249	27,876
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	41.0	50.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.4	32.2	-49.4

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	51.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	45.7	5.5
– Net Position:	-48,959	34,371	14,588
– Gross Longs:	116,199	310,435	48,089
– Gross Shorts:	165,158	276,064	33,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.3	88.5	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-11.5	-21.0

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 106,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.2	29.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	51.9	13.0
– Net Position:	106,678	-86,840	-19,838
– Gross Longs:	185,728	113,095	30,057
– Gross Shorts:	79,050	199,935	49,895
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.2	16.5	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-3.5	9.4

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 91,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,340 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.6	26.1	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	48.9	7.8
– Net Position:	91,584	-85,459	-6,125
– Gross Longs:	174,216	97,309	23,110
– Gross Shorts:	82,632	182,768	29,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.5	3.1	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-13.4	-4.9

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -51,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	50.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.2	30.3	5.5
– Net Position:	-51,334	52,788	-1,454
– Gross Longs:	70,171	130,797	12,610
– Gross Shorts:	121,505	78,009	14,064
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	94.9	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	14.8	-10.2

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,946 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	47.3	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	58.5	8.0
– Net Position:	6,946	-10,553	3,607
– Gross Longs:	23,995	44,360	11,124
– Gross Shorts:	17,049	54,913	7,517
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.0	83.2	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	2.5	5.6

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -82,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	38.0	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.1	19.8	7.3
– Net Position:	-82,139	81,977	162
– Gross Longs:	125,788	171,475	32,927
– Gross Shorts:	207,927	89,498	32,765
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	72.4	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	9.0	14.9

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.