By InvestMacro
Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall decisively higher this week as ten out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while one market had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (33,266 contracts) with Corn (18,075 contracts), Soybean Oil (13,621 contracts), Soybeans (12,864 contracts), Wheat (9,980 contracts), Cotton (8,685 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,351 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,514 contracts), Coffee (1,659 contracts) and Cocoa (1,391 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.
The only market with a decline in speculator bets was Live Cattle with a drop by -4,952 contracts on the week.
Live Cattle leads Softs Price Changes this week
Soft commodities market changes this week were overall lower. Live Cattle was the price change leader over the past 5 days with a gain of 1.05%. Live Cattle is up by almost 2% over the last 30 days and is higher by 12.43% over the past 90 days.
Wheat comes in second with a 0.36% gain on the week. However, Wheat has been down by -2.89% over the past 30 days and lower by -4.21% over the past 90 days. Next up, Cocoa was minimally higher by 0.25% on the week. Cocoa has been cruising higher by 20% over the past 30 days and is up by 21.46% over the past 90 days.
Cotton was down by -0.43% this week followed by Corn which was lower by -1.01% while Soybeans fell by -1.48% and Soybean Meal was down by -1.99%. Sugar dipped by -2.17% this week followed by Lean Hogs which saw a decline by -2.19% and Soybean Oil dropped by -3.09%.
Coffee came in as the biggest loser on the week with a -7.03% decline. However, Coffee has been higher by 26.89% over the past 30 days and is up by approximately 5% over the past 90 days.
Soft Commodities Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (99 percent) and Live Cattle (78 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (68 percent), Coffee (65 percent) and Soybeans (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Sugar (8 percent), Cotton (12 percent), Soybean Meal (16 percent) and the Cocoa (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.8 percent)
Sugar (7.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (64.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (63.2 percent)
Soybeans (55.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (52.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (60.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (16.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.3 percent)
Live Cattle (78.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (83.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (99.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (96.5 percent)
Cotton (11.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.6 percent)
Cocoa (18.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (17.0 percent)
Wheat (37.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (29.1 percent)
Lean Hogs & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (17 percent) and Soybeans (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (14 percent), Coffee (11 percent) and Corn (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Soybean Oil (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-7 percent), Live Cattle (-5 percent) and Cotton (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.8 percent)
Sugar (-7.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Coffee (10.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.4 percent)
Soybeans (15.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (-15.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-29.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (16.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.1 percent)
Cotton (-4.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.9 percent)
Cocoa (-1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.0 percent)
Wheat (5.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.1 percent)
Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
CORN Futures:
The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,075 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,244 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.7 | 44.4 | 8.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.0 | 40.0 | 10.4 |
| – Net Position: | -36,169 | 68,373 | -32,204 |
| – Gross Longs: | 346,750 | 679,858 | 126,706 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 382,919 | 611,485 | 158,910 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 31.3 | 67.5 | 69.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 9.8 | -12.1 | 9.0 |
SUGAR Futures:
The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of -106,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 33,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -139,610 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.1 | 56.0 | 8.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.7 | 43.8 | 8.8 |
| – Net Position: | -106,344 | 112,398 | -6,054 |
| – Gross Longs: | 175,246 | 514,370 | 75,162 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 281,590 | 401,972 | 81,216 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 7.9 | 94.2 | 12.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.0 | 4.8 | 9.0 |
COFFEE Futures:
The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,517 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 35.8 | 37.3 | 5.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.0 | 62.1 | 3.5 |
| – Net Position: | 40,176 | -43,585 | 3,409 |
| – Gross Longs: | 63,063 | 65,689 | 9,579 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 22,887 | 109,274 | 6,170 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.8 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.8 | 35.4 | 75.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.6 | -13.1 | 48.4 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,323 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.7 | 56.6 | 6.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.3 | 57.5 | 7.4 |
| – Net Position: | 21,187 | -8,293 | -12,894 |
| – Gross Longs: | 167,351 | 507,053 | 53,482 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 146,164 | 515,346 | 66,376 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 55.9 | 41.8 | 78.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 15.5 | -17.1 | 7.4 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,880 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.9 | 45.6 | 5.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.5 | 54.2 | 4.4 |
| – Net Position: | 47,501 | -55,005 | 7,504 |
| – Gross Longs: | 133,827 | 292,585 | 35,467 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 86,326 | 347,590 | 27,963 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 68.1 | 33.6 | 55.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.2 | 15.8 | -17.8 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,959 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.1 | 51.2 | 7.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.2 | 46.5 | 5.3 |
| – Net Position: | -44,608 | 29,001 | 15,607 |
| – Gross Longs: | 118,194 | 317,392 | 48,569 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 162,802 | 288,391 | 32,962 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 16.0 | 86.5 | 31.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 14.0 | -13.4 | -11.7 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 101,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,678 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 46.2 | 30.4 | 8.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.2 | 51.8 | 13.3 |
| – Net Position: | 101,726 | -83,348 | -18,378 |
| – Gross Longs: | 180,326 | 118,626 | 33,510 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 78,600 | 201,974 | 51,888 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 78.3 | 20.8 | 32.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.6 | 0.5 | 14.3 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 95,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,584 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 48.1 | 25.2 | 6.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.2 | 48.4 | 7.7 |
| – Net Position: | 95,098 | -88,856 | -6,242 |
| – Gross Longs: | 184,169 | 96,648 | 23,341 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 89,071 | 185,504 | 29,583 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 99.1 | 0.3 | 39.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.6 | -16.6 | -8.8 |
COTTON Futures:
The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,334 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.1 | 49.9 | 5.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.6 | 33.5 | 5.0 |
| – Net Position: | -42,649 | 42,601 | 48 |
| – Gross Longs: | 70,118 | 129,115 | 12,948 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 112,767 | 86,514 | 12,900 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 11.9 | 89.1 | 22.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.4 | 3.0 | 14.0 |
COCOA Futures:
The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,946 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.6 | 47.0 | 11.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.0 | 58.6 | 8.2 |
| – Net Position: | 8,337 | -11,290 | 2,953 |
| – Gross Longs: | 24,775 | 45,550 | 10,941 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 16,438 | 56,840 | 7,988 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 18.5 | 82.4 | 48.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.7 | 2.1 | -3.7 |
WHEAT Futures:
The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -72,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,139 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.8 | 36.5 | 6.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.5 | 20.6 | 6.9 |
| – Net Position: | -72,159 | 73,100 | -941 |
| – Gross Longs: | 127,443 | 167,332 | 30,903 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 199,602 | 94,232 | 31,844 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 37.1 | 64.4 | 48.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 5.2 | -7.0 | 8.0 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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