Bullish above: 112,600
Bearish below: 112,130
Primary Bias: Bullish while price holds above threshold
Partial Targets (long side): 112,875 · 113,010 · 113,300 · 113,675 · 113,880 · 114,700
Partial Targets (short side): 111,875 · 111,390 · 111,110 · 110,590
Bitcoin Market Context & Price Outlook
At the time of this Bitcoin technical analysis, futures are trading at 112,800, comfortably above the bullish threshold of 112,600. This places the market in positive territory, but a short-term dip toward the 112,400–112,500 zone is still possible before buyers attempt another push higher.
Traders can choose between entering immediately in bullish territory or waiting for a dip-and-retest entry near the threshold. Either approach can align with tradeCompass, which is designed to integrate with your trading style while providing a clear directional map.
On the downside, the picture only flips bearish if price falls below 112,130.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Key Levels & Partial Profit Strategy
If Bitcoin sustains above the bullish threshold, the following staged targets may attract liquidity:
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112,875 – intraday tactical level for first profit-taking.
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113,010 – short-term resistance area.
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113,300 – near the September 23rd VWAP, a prior magnet for heavy trading.
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113,675 and 113,880 – clustered liquidity pools from September 22–24.
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114,700 – final target, just below the September 24th VWAP.
If Bitcoin breaks below 112,130, bears can aim for:
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111,875 – first key support.
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111,390 – deeper target on bearish continuation.
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111,110 – aligns with the September 4th POC, a major inflection point.
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110,590 – near the September 4th Value Area Low, a critical swing level.
Trade management reminder: After TP2, move your stop to entry (breakeven) to secure gains and manage your runner.
Background: What’s Driving Bitcoin Price Action?
Bitcoin’s latest rebound comes against a turbulent macro backdrop:
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US Government Shutdown Risk: With a September 30 deadline approaching, prediction markets now price a 66% chance of a government shutdown. The gridlock has already rattled Bitcoin—dropping it from $104,000 to $96,522 within 24 hours last week. A prolonged shutdown would stall regulatory progress (ETF approvals, crypto legislation), creating further uncertainty.
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Federal Reserve & Interest Rates: Traders increasingly expect a Fed rate cut in October, with prediction markets showing over 80% odds. Bitcoin has risen back toward $112,000+ on that anticipation. Lower rates typically support risk assets like Bitcoin, while delays could keep prices rangebound.
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Stablecoin Flows: Large inflows into stablecoins (~$140 billion over the past week) show risk capital rotating out of crypto, weighing on Bitcoin in the short term. However, this liquidity could fuel a sharp recovery if policy fears ease.
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Institutional & Long-Term Outlook: According to investingLive.com, formerly FoerxLive.com, Citi now forecasts the stablecoin market will exceed $4 trillion by 2030, and even suggests bank-issued tokens may surpass stablecoins in transaction volume. This underscores the deepening institutionalization of digital assets, an important long-term backdrop for Bitcoin’s adoption story.
For now, the immediate driver remains Washington politics, with shutdown risk posing the biggest near-term influence on Bitcoin’s volatility.
Educational Corner – Partial Profits in Bitcoin Trading
Many new traders hold for a single “home run” target, but this often backfires. Taking partial profits at logical levels like VWAPs, liquidity pools, and points of control locks in gains and keeps you flexible. The tradeCompass framework is built around this philosophy, helping you avoid all-or-nothing outcomes in Bitcoin trading.
Trade Management Reminders
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One trade per direction per tradeCompass rules.
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Stops should sit just beyond your entry-side threshold with a buffer—never beyond the opposite threshold.
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Consider waiting for confirmation candles if you prefer added momentum signals.
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Adjust stops upward once partial targets are hit to defend profits.
Disclaimer
This Bitcoin technical analysis is for educational and decision-support purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Trading Bitcoin futures involves significant risk, and market conditions can change quickly. Use tradeCompass as one layer of guidance within your trading plan, and always trade at your own risk.
