Summary box for Today’s Bitcoin Traders (price are for bitcoin futures!)
Bullish above: 104500
Bearish below: 104100
Current price: 103855
Primary bias: Bearish while price stays under 104100 and near the developing VWAP
Partial targets for BTC shorts (once price activates the short by crossing down 104500)
103580
103055
102090
101730
100985
Extended swing references for BTC short
99835
98705
95205
92035
Bitcoin Futures Market Context & Directional Bias
This Bitcoin analysis for today starts with location. BTC futures trade at 103855, below the bearish threshold of 104100 and near the developing VWAP, so the short plan is active. On the weekly chart we’ve had two down weeks, then two retracement weeks, and now two more down weeks in progress. Yesterday’s bounce looks more like a reaction after piercing the 100000 round number than a completed reversal. Until proven otherwise, Bitcoin technical analysis favors selling rallies while price remains under 104100.
tradeCompass is a methodology that protects Bitcoin traders from bias creep. If price pushes above 104500 and holds, the bullish plan takes over. We don’t marry a view; we follow thresholds.
Weekly Performance Snapshot of Notable Crypto Assets
A difficult week for crypto broadly; breadth remains negative.
| Ticker | WTD % |
|---|---|
| BTC | -5.91% |
| XRP | -6.71% |
| XLM | -9.06% |
| AAVE | -9.55% |
| DOGE | -11.45% |
| ETH | -12.05% |
| BNB | -12.37% |
| LINK | -12.52% |
| SOL | -13.56% |
| SUI | -14.43% |
This backdrop supports a cautious posture for dip buyers until thresholds flip.
But it’s not only the coins above. There is something even worse, technically. The activation of this big bear flag:
See where X is? That is an activation of a bear flag on BTC
Key Levels & Partial-Profit Plan for Bitcoin Futures Today and Beyond
Active short plan while below 104100
103580
Reason: today’s first lower VWAP deviation; common first reaction zone.
103055
Reason: would print a new session low; confluence with yesterday’s VWAP.
102090
Reason: sits just above yesterday’s Value Area Low; typical response area.
101730
Reason: prior liquidity pocket on the volume profile.
100985
Reason: final intraday bear target before the 100000 psychological level.
Rule update for shorts: after TP1 is hit, move the stop on the remainder to entry. Do not wait for TP2.
Extended swing references (if downside momentum persists across sessions)
99835; 98705; 95205; 92035
Okay, I get ths short scenario, but where is the Long? Conditional long plan if price reclaims 104500
Quick validation zone: 104830 to 104850
Reason: just below yesterday’s Value Area High; fast check that buyers have control.
105365
Reason: next liquidity shelf consistent with October 17 volume profile.
106195
Reason: higher profile level from October 17; common magnet if momentum builds.
Rule update for longs: after the first profit target (104830–104850) is hit, move the stop on the remainder to entry.
Managing Bias with tradeCompass Thresholds
If you’re short from earlier and in profit but price later crosses and sustains above 104500, consider trimming risk—take some chips off the table or scale down the short. Thresholds serve as your real-time audit, helping this Bitcoin technical analysis remain adaptive rather than opinion-driven.
Educational Corner: Volume-Profile Landmarks (quick refresher)
Value Area High (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL) outline where most trading occurred. Point of Control (POC) is the price with the highest activity and often acts like a magnet. Aligning partial-profit targets with VAH/VAL/POC and VWAP deviations helps you harvest gains where reactions are statistically common—core to tradeCompass planning for Bitcoin traders.
Trade Management Reminders for Bitcoin Traders
- One trade per direction per tradeCompass.
- For today’s compass: After TP1 on either side, move stops to entry on the remainder. The default is to do that after reaching either the 1st (TP1) of the 2nd (TP2) partial profit targets.
- Stops should sit just beyond your activation side with a small buffer, never beyond the opposite threshold.
- Use confirmations that suit your style—e.g., sustained holds below 104100 for shorts or above 104500 for longs.
How to Use This Bitcoin Analysis for Today
Below 104100, execute the short ladder and bank partials at each level. If price pushes and holds above 104500, pause the bear idea and switch to the bullish plan, starting with the quick validation zone and stepping up to higher targets only if momentum persists. If price chops between thresholds, patience is a position.
Professional disclaimer and where to follow
This is decision support, not financial advice. Markets change quickly; size positions prudently and always use stops.
See the next tradeCompass at www.investingLive.com and join our free channel https://t.me/investingLiveStocks for more ideas and education.
