Australian dollar was one of the top gainers among major currencies on Wednesday, after weaker than expected US CPI data revived hopes disinflation is back to play and added to doves advocating for September Fed rate cut.
AUDUSD pair advanced 1.35% after release of data and cracked 0.6700 barrier, nearing full retracement of 0.6714/0.6575 pullback (the barrier is reinforced by the top of weekly Ichimoku cloud), and likely to provide headwinds for fresh bulls.
Structure on daily chart has turned to full bullish mode and north-heading indicators show more room for extension higher.
Firm break of 0.6714 pivot to confirm a higher base at 0.6580 zone and signal continuation of an uptrend from 0.6362 (Apr 19 low) towards next targets at 0.6750 (Fibo 76.4% of 0.6871/0.6362 downtrend) and 0.6800 (psychological) in extension.
Dips should be limited and provide better levels to re-enter bullish market, but strong warning could be expected on drop below converged daily Tenkan/Kijun-sen lines (0.6638/36).
Markets shift focus towards Fed’s comments at the end of two-day policy meeting, due later today.
The US central bank is expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged, and markets will closely watch Fed’s projections (dot plots) for fresh signals about the timing and the pace of policy easing, in new reality after surprise drop in consumer prices in May.
The Aussie may rally further if the US policymakers take more dovish stance, which should be anticipated in current condition after encouraging news for the US policymakers.
Res: 0.6714; 0.6728; 0.6750; 0.6800
Sup: 0.6676; 0.6636; 0.6616; 0.6580
