This morning the Central Bank of Australia decided to keep the interest rate at the same level = 4.35%, as expected.
However, RBA management said that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out as inflation is still too high. This is a clear signal that policy easing is unlikely in the near future.
AUD/USD has rallied from its 2024 low following this relatively hawkish rhetoric.
The daily AUD/USD chart today shows that if the bullish momentum does not fade, then based on the results of today’s trading the following may form:
→ bullish engulfing candlestick pattern;
→ bullish divergence.
At the same time, the price is near the important level of 0.6510, which since mid-2023 has repeatedly shown its influence on the AUD/USD price both as support and resistance (shown by arrows).
The ability of the AUD/USD price to consolidate above this key level will indicate the strength of demand, with:
→ a false bearish breakdown of the level of 0.651 may form on the chart;
→ it is possible that the bulls will try to build on their success and return the AUD/USD price to the area of the ascending channel (shown in blue), which dates back to last fall.
From the point of view of technical analysis of AUD/USD, the likelihood of a bullish scenario is increased by the fact that point C (the current low of the year) is located in the area of the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the impulse movement A→B.
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