AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6798 accelerated to as low as 0.6513 last week but recovered after breaching 61.8% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6798 at 0.6528 briefly. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Further fall is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6631) holds. Sustained break oft 0.6528 will pave the way back to 0.6361 support next.
In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.6798 as another falling leg. Deeper fall could be seen to the lower side of the range between 0.6169/6361. But strong support should be seen there to contain downside. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6798 resistance holds, in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.
