The Bank of Japan maintained ultra-loose monetary settings on Tuesday in a widely expected move, underscoring policymakers’ preference to await more clues on whether wages will rise enough to keep inflation durably around its 2% target.
The central bank also made no change to its dovish policy guidance, dashing hopes among some traders it would tweak the language to signal a near-term end to negative interest rates.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said while prices and wages appeared to be moving in the right direction, conditions remained uncertain.
“The chance of trend inflation accelerating towards our price target is gradually heightening,” Ueda said in a press conference after the meeting. “But we still need to scrutinise whether a positive wage-inflation cycle will fall in place.”
At the two-day meeting that ended on Tuesday, the BOJ kept its short-term rate target at -0.1% and that for the 10-year government bond yield around 0%. It also left unchanged a loose upper band of 1.0% set for the 10-year yield.
In the statement accompanying its decision, the BOJ repeated its commitment to take “additional easing steps if necessary,” adding that uncertainty regarding the economy was “extremely high.”
The yen fell broadly and Japanese stock futures jumped after the BOJ’s decision to hold off on phasing out stimulus.
Japan has seen inflation hold above 2% for over a year and some firms have signalled their readiness to keep raising wages, increasing the chance of a near-term policy shift.
In July, the BOJ relaxed its grip on long-term borrowing costs by raising a cap set for the 10-year bond yield. The cap was watered down to a loose reference in October in a sign Ueda was moving steadily toward dismantling his predecessor’s radical stimulus.
More than 80% of economists polled by Reuters in November expect the BOJ to end its negative rate policy next year with half of them predicting April as the most likely timing. Some see the chance of a policy shift in January.
Analysts say the BOJ may find it easier to move in months like January and April, when it releases a quarterly outlook report with fresh growth and price projections.
But a sharply changing global monetary policy environment may complicate the BOJ’s decision with U.S. and European central banks signalling that they are done hiking rates.
Raising rates at a time other central banks are cutting them could trigger a spike in the yen that would hurt big manufacturers’ profits and discourage them from hiking wages, some analysts say.
