Mumbai: Bearish bets on stock futures of HDFC Bank, India’s most valuable lender, are at the highest level ever as concerns that the firm’s profitability is under pressure are seen weighing down its share price.
Total open interest, or outstanding positions, in HDFC’s stock futures has surged by 115% to 4.19 lakh contracts – a record build-up – after its third-quarter results with most of them being short positions, said Ruchit Jain, lead research analyst at 5Paisa.com.
The stock declined 0.7% to close at ₹1,384.9 on Wednesday, its lowest level in the last 52 weeks. Since the announcement of the December quarter results on January 16, the share price has declined over 21.3% as against the 4.82% drop in the Bank Nifty index
“We see the shares of HDFC Bank being under pressure due to net interest margins (NIM) falling further in the third quarter, along with a shift from CASA (Current Account, Savings Account) to term deposits, which impact the cost of funds and margins of the bank,” said Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities.
In the options segment, HDFC Bank call and put contracts have seen the highest build-up at 1,400 strike.
Analysts said options data suggests that HDFC Bank could face a strong hurdle at ₹1,440 level.
“1440 is the maximum pain area based on Call-Put data, which if crossed, will lead to a short covering of positions,” said Rajesh Palviya, head of technicals and derivatives at Axis Securities.
Palviya said the level is unlikely to be breached soon, given the weak outlook for the bank that has resulted in a major selloff from funds.
Jain said if the stock crosses the ₹1,400 level, it could lead to a short covering, which may drive a rebound in the stock. This could also push up the Bank Nifty index, in which HDFC has the highest weight.
